House Price Index - Hass Consult

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HOUSE PRICE INDEX QUARTER ONE REPORT 2017

Surge in housing supply in 2016 offers reprieve in rental prices as housing deficit begins to narrow • Overall property prices were largely static in the first quarter, even as volume of interest in property buying held up better in the quarter • Apartment prices showed a slight uptick of 0.4 per cent in the quarter attributable to sustained demand from investors • Detached and semi-detached house prices recorded falls of 0.2 and 0.4 per cent respectively in the anticipated election run up as owner-occupier buyers stall on property purchases • Asking rents for apartments reduced by 3.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2017, pulling the overall rental market to record a 0.5 per cent drop as apartment housing supply in 2016 expanded. Detached and semi-detached houses however recorded rent hikes of 0.7 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively in the first quarter • The total returns on let properties are now highest for detached houses, at 12.4 per cent, followed by apartments, at 11.7 per cent compared with a return of 8.78 per cent on 91-day Treasury Bills

Property Index Highlights: The Hass Composite Sales Index All Properties

Quarter % Change

Annual % Change

Change From 2007

-0.1%

5.0%

2.37 Fold

Suburb with Highest Quarterly Increase in Sales Price

Muthaiga ( +5.6% over last quarter)

Suburb with Highest Annual Increase in Sales Price

Muthaiga ( +17.2% over last year)

Suburb with Lowest Quarterly Increase in Sales Price

Upperhill ( -3.1% over last quarter)

Suburb with Lowest Annual Increase in Sales Price

The Hass Composite Rental Index All Properties

Kilimani (-7.2% over last year)

Quarter % Change -0.5%

Suburb with Highest Quarterly Increase in Rental Price

Annual % Change

Change From 2007

2.9%

1.78 Fold

Eastleighs (+1.6% over last quarter) Langata (+9.6% over last year)

Suburb with Highest Annual Increase in Rental Price Suburb with Lowest Quarterly Increase in Rental Price

Kitisuru (-1.9% over last quarter)

Suburb with Lowest Annual Increase in Rental Price

Kileleshwa (-2.5% over last year) * The Hass Composite Indices is a measure of advertised prices, based on a Mix Adjusted Methodology

HassConsult Limited | ABC Place, Waiyaki Way | P.O. Box 14090 - 00800 Nairobi, Kenya T: +254 20 4446914 | F: +254 20 4447200 | M: 0722 204 764/5; 0733 629 786 | E: [email protected]

www.hassconsult.co.ke

HOUSE PRICE INDEX QUARTER ONE REPORT 2017

HassConsult today unveiled the Hass Property price indices for the first quarter of 2017, showing a static performance in asking prices despite strong buying interest in the quarter. Interest in the property market is being sustained by investors looking for attractive rental and capital growth prospects often achieved in the apartment segment of Kenya's real estate market. This sustained interest produced a 0.4 per cent rise in asking prices over the quarter even as other segments witnessed minor price falls. Asking prices for detached houses dropped by 0. 2 per cent in the quarter while semi-detached houses recorded a 0.4 per cent drop as this segment is dominated by buyers who purchase the properties to live in and as now are postponing buying decisions as the general elections approach. “The property market is currently being held by the investor buyer, looking for safe but strong returns over competing asset classes such as stocks and Treasury bills which have been on a bear run over the same period,” said Ms. Sakina Hassanali, Head of Development Consulting and Research at HassConsult. The total returns (constituting rental return plus capital growth) on apartments average 11.7 per cent compared with a return of 8.78 per cent on 91-day Treasury Bills and a negative 2.92 per return at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE). The return on let apartments is still superior to competing asset classes despite the quarters 3.3 per cent drop in asking rents on apartments. This reprieve on apartment rental prices has come as a result of the expanding apartment stock witnessed in 2016 resulting in the reduction of the housing gap while cushioning tenants in light of increased cost of living that has seen annual inflation rates touch the 10 per cent mark in the quarter. “The stock of apartments within Nairobi and its satellite towns has expanded to meet the wider demand and as more units enter the rental market landlords are reigning in asking rents to remain competitive - a boon for tenants amidst the general price increases in the economy,” added Ms. Hassanali. On the other hand, detached and semi-detached units recorded mild increases in asking rents for the first quarter of 0.7 and 0.2 per cent respectively, mild repricing as a result of tightening supply of housing within this segment. For more information, please contact: Sakina Hassanali Head of Development Consulting & Research

HassConsult Limited | ABC Place, Waiyaki Way | P.O. Box 14090 - 00800 Nairobi, Kenya T: +254 20 4446914 | F: +254 20 4447200 | M: 0722 204 764/5; 0733 629 786 | E: [email protected]

www.hassconsult.co.ke

HOUSE PRICE INDEX QUARTER ONE REPORT 2017

Sales Prices

Rental Prices

Quarter % Change

Annual % Change

Change From 2007

Quarter % Change

Annual % Change

Change From 2007

Donholm

-0.7 %

-4.1 %

3.1 FOLD

-1.8 %

-2.3 %

1.7 FOLD

Eastleigh

-1.5 %

-3.1 %

2.9 FOLD

1.6 %

3.9 %

2.7 FOLD

Gigiri

1.7 %

9.5 %

2.7 FOLD

1.5 %

4.5 %

1.9 FOLD

Karen

1.4 %

8.8 %

3.1 FOLD

0.2 %

7.6 %

1.9 FOLD

Kileleshwa

-0.6 %

5.9 %

2.5 FOLD

-0.3 %

-2.5 %

2.1 FOLD

Kilimani

-0.7 %

-7.2 %

2.3 FOLD

0.4 %

2.9 %

1.8 FOLD

Kitisuru

1.1 %

10.7 %

2.7 FOLD

-1.9 %

-2.2 %

2.5 FOLD

Langata

-0.1 %

7.6 %

3.5 FOLD

-1.1 %

9.6 %

1.9 FOLD

Lavington

1.1 %

6.6 %

2.5 FOLD

-0.2 %

2.4 %

2.3 FOLD

Loresho

0.3 %

6.1 %

2.2 FOLD

0.4 %

1.1 %

2.5 FOLD

Muthaiga

5.6 %

17.2 %

2.1 FOLD

0.0 %

-1.0 %

2.5 FOLD

Nyari

3.2 %

13.8 %

2.4 FOLD

0.7 %

-1.1 %

1.7 FOLD

Parklands

0.0 %

4.9 %

2.9 FOLD

0.7 %

1.9 %

2.1 FOLD

Ridgeways

2.7 %

2.7 %

2.4 FOLD

-1.5 %

8.0 %

2.2 FOLD

Runda

-0.1 %

6.5 %

3.1 FOLD

0.6 %

4.8 %

1.8 FOLD

Spring Valley

1.0 %

8.5 %

2.2 FOLD

0.0 %

5.0 %

1.9 FOLD

Upperhill

-3.1 %

-1.8 %

3.0 FOLD

-0.5 %

2.6 %

3.2 FOLD

Westlands

0.5 %

2.2 %

2.5 FOLD

0.0 %

-2.3 %

2.2 FOLD

Nairobi Suburbs Property Index

Sales Prices

Rental Prices

Quarter % Change

Annual % Change

Change From 2007

Quarter % Change

Annual % Change

Change From 2007

Athi River

-1.8 %

4.0 %

2.4 FOLD

-2.4 %

-5.1 %

1.5 FOLD

Juja

-3.2 %

2.0 %

2.7 FOLD

5.6 %

17.4 %

2.8 FOLD

Kiambu

1.7 %

6.2 %

2.7 FOLD

0.2 %

10.4 %

2.4 FOLD

Kiserian

-0.8 %

-0.5 %

2.4 FOLD

2.8 %

-0.3 %

2.3 FOLD

Kitengela

2.1 %

9.4 %

2.4 FOLD

-0.9 %

5.8 %

2.0 FOLD

Limuru

1.5 %

8.7 %

2.4 FOLD

2.2 %

10.7 %

2.1 FOLD

Mlolongo

-1.8 %

-3.9 %

1.6 FOLD

-0.5 %

-3.1 %

2.1 FOLD

Ngong

2.4 %

14.5 %

2.5 FOLD

0.1 %

0.7 %

2.1 FOLD

Ongata Rongai

1.7 %

8.5 %

2.5 FOLD

-0.1 %

4.2 %

2.2 FOLD

Ruaka

0.9 %

6.1 %

2.0 FOLD

2.1 %

7.6 %

2.0 FOLD

Ruiru

0.9 %

9.9 %

3.1 FOLD

1.8 %

18.8 %

2.2 FOLD

Syokimau

0.2 %

-0.1 %

1.9 FOLD

-0.9 %

-0.2 %

2.0 FOLD

Thika

-2.5 %

-6.7 %

1.8 FOLD

-1.1 %

0.8 %

2.0 FOLD

Tigoni

3.5 %

8.9 %

2.1 FOLD

-0.9 %

-1.6 %

1.8 FOLD

Nairobi Satellite Town Property Index

HassConsult Limited | ABC Place, Waiyaki Way | P.O. Box 14090 - 00800 Nairobi, Kenya T: +254 20 4446914 | F: +254 20 4447200 | M: 0722 204 764/5; 0733 629 786 | E: [email protected]

www.hassconsult.co.ke

HOUSE PRICE INDEX QUARTER ONE REPORT 2017

SNAP SHOTS: • The Hass Composite Sales Index is representative of all properties for sale in Kenya

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

• Property values have increased by 4.38 times since 2000. • The index shows a property price fall of -0.1% in the last quarter and a 5.0% rise in the last year.

2007 Q3 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q3 2014 Q1 2014 Q3 2015 Q1 2015 Q3 2016 Q1 2016 Q3 2017 Q1

Index 2000 =100

The Hass Sales Index All Property Types

SNAP SHOTS: • The annual average is representative of the average price of all properties offered for sale in Kenya.

55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

• The average value for a property has gone from 7.1 million in December 2000 to 31.4 million in March 2017. • The average value for a 4-6 bedroom property is currently 47.3 million. 2007 Q3 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q3 2014 Q1 2014 Q3 2015 Q1 2015 Q3 2016 Q1 2016 Q3 2017 Q1

ASking Price KSH.s 1000s

Annual Average All Property Types

1 to 3 Beds

4 to 6 Beds

• The average value for a 1-3 bedroom property is currently 14.1 million.

Mix Adj

SNAP SHOTS:

Mix by Year All Property Types 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

• The Mix by Year is a measure of the percentage that each type of property represents in the market.

Apartments (1-3) Semi-detached (1-3) Detached (1-3) Apartments (4-6) Semi-detached (4-6)

• In 2000, apartments took up 23.5% of the market, semi-detached took up 24.5% of the market and detached houses took up 52% of the market. • In December 2016 however, Apartments took up 40.7% of the market, Semi-detached Houses took up 18.7% of the market and Detached Houses took up 40.6% of the market.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Detached (4-6)

HassConsult Limited | ABC Place, Waiyaki Way | P.O. Box 14090 - 00800 Nairobi, Kenya T: +254 20 4446914 | F: +254 20 4447200 | M: 0722 204 764/5; 0733 629 786 | E: [email protected]

www.hassconsult.co.ke

HOUSE PRICE INDEX QUARTER ONE REPORT 2017

400.00 350.00

SNAP SHOTS:

The Hass Rental Index All Property Types

• The Hass Composite Letting Index is representative of all properties for rental in Kenya

Index 2000 =100

300.00

• Rents have increased by 3.78 fold since 2001

250.00

• The index shows rents have increased by -0.5% in the last quarter but have risen by 2.9% in the last year.

200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 2007 Q3 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q3 2014 Q1 2014 Q3 2015 Q1 2015 Q3 2016 Q1 2016 Q3 2017 Q1

0.00

SNAP SHOTS:

Annual Average All Property Types

• The annual average is representative of the average rent of all properties offered to let in Kenya. • The average rental for a property has gone from Kshs. 38,516 in December 2000 to Kshs. 145,452 in March 2017.

250 200 150

• The average rent for a 4-6 bedroom property is currently Kshs. 243,886

100 50 0 2007 Q3 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q3 2014 Q1 2014 Q3 2015 Q1 2015 Q3 2016 Q1 2016 Q3 2017 Q1

ASking Price KSH.s 1000s

300

1 to 3 Beds

4 to 6 Beds

Mix Adj

Mix by Year All Property Types 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

• The average rent for a 1-3 bedroom property is currently Kshs. 72,935

Apartments (1-3) Semi-detached (1-3) Detached (1-3) Apartments (4-6) Semi-detached (4-6)

SNAP SHOTS: • The Mix by Year is a measure of the percentage that each type of property represents in the market. • In 2000, Apartments took up 45.3% of the market, Semi-detached Houses took up 20.5% of the market and Detached Houses took up 34.1% of the market. • In December 2016 however, Apartments took up 59.5% of the market, Semi-detached Houses took up 12.8% of the market and Detached Houses took up 27.7% of the market.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Detached (4-6)

HassConsult Limited | ABC Place, Waiyaki Way | P.O. Box 14090 - 00800 Nairobi, Kenya T: +254 20 4446914 | F: +254 20 4447200 | M: 0722 204 764/5; 0733 629 786 | E: [email protected]

www.hassconsult.co.ke