How to Achieve a Top 10k Finish
How to Achieve a Top 10k Finish in Fantasy Premier League
By Ryan Cook
Contents Chapter
Page No.
Introduction
3
The Basics
6
Ways to Change Your Team
11
Choosing Players
14
Player Types to Watch Out For
19
Player Types to Avoid
23
Choosing a Captain
26
An Introduction to Wildcards
32
Using Your Wildcards
34
Double Gameweeks
38
How to “Do Your Research”
40
Final Thoughts
46
Helpful Resources
47
2
Introduction Every year, millions of aspiring managers take part in the Official Fantasy Premier League football game. Since you’re reading this book, I’m guessing that you tend to finish higher than the average player already but there is always room for improvement. To consistently finish inside the top 10k, there are a number of things you have to consider.
First of all, it’s important to keep yourself up-‐to-‐date with the latest football news, and use this information to plan for future gameweeks. You can’t select the best fantasy team without knowing a few things about the real teams. Watching games, reading football news and researching the match statistics that precede the fantasy points, can be a great help. While it’s definitely true that you can fluke a few good gameweeks by playing the game “casually”, consistency is important in the long run, and this will come from careful planning and preparation.
3
Secondly, you’ll need a bit of luck. It’s all well and good selecting the best players on paper; based on form, fixtures, statistics, etc. But if your player suffers a long-‐term injury half way through his first game for you, all that effort will have been a waste. Sometimes, players who have been out of favour and haven’t played in weeks are given a game, and score a couple of goals. But again, this is something that you can’t really plan for. Some of these random occurrences will go in your favour, and some will go against you – we all have those “bad starts” or those “off weeks”. Finally, and in my opinion, the most important thing to consider is having a good foundation of FPL knowledge – the philosophy of fantasy football, if you like. It’s this third point that we will be primarily focussing on throughout this book. The managers that consistently finish inside the top 10k, or even the top 100k, don’t find themselves in that position by any accident – it’s through thorough planning and studying of the general rules and tips that we’re about to explore.
4
The good thing about the information I will reveal in this book is that once you’ve learned it, it will change the way you play the game forever. It’s a simple game for the casual player, but for the more dedicated player (the category I’m assuming you fall into since you’re reading this book) there are a few more things to think about that will instantly boost your chances of ranking highly.
5
The Basics It’s always good to start at the beginning, so below are various aspects of the game that you need to think carefully about when you first start the season. Some of these also apply throughout the season as well. Dividing Your Budget You need to think carefully about how much you are spending on each position: goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders and forwards. You also need to be aware of how much money you are investing in your starting lineup and how much you have stored in your bench players. It’s usually not a good idea to have your bench filled with expensive players that you aren’t earning points from. However, if you plan on rotating players, you will most likely have to spend more on your bench than if you plan on keeping the same 11 players each week.
6
When initially spending your £100m, you need to keep a balance. While you don’t want to waste huge amounts of money on your bench, you want to pick some players that you are fairly sure will play – in case any of your starting 11 don’t. As the season goes on, you should find it becomes easier to predict teams’ starting lineups and therefore select players that are likely to start games. But at the start of the season, real-life managers may be more inclined to experiment with their squad and attempt to integrate any new additions. Because of this factor, it’s a risky move to choose bench players that you know almost certainly won’t play. It’s also worth considering that even bench players can be used to build your team value, so selecting players that don’t play for your bench might be a waste of a potential opportunity to make some money for later on in the season.
The most common tactic is to spend the bulk of your budget on your 7 starting, attacking players. This could mean 5 midfielders and 2 strikers or 4 midfielders and 3 strikers but you definitely
7
want some reliable “big hitters” in there. Again, you may decide to choose a non-‐playing, cheap option for the 8th attacking player or alternatively, you could have 6 fairly strong attacking players and 2 weaker ones with fixtures that rotate well. Choosing Your Formation When it comes to formation, you don’t have all that much to decide. For most FPL managers, an attacking 7 is vital, and so they are forced to play 3 defenders for the majority of gameweeks. But given that defenders tend to depend almost solely on clean sheets for points, this is an ideal strategy, because clean sheets are often harder to predict than reliable goal scorers. Rotation Another tactic to consider is whether or not you will be making use of your full squad by rotating certain cheaper players, or whether you’ll stick to putting out more or less the same
8
starting XI every week, with your bench being occupied by non-‐ starters or super cheap, risky players that you don’t see yourself ever using. Both are valid strategies and you may decide to experiment with both throughout the season. Finding Your “Core” Players A core player is someone you plan on keeping for the majority of, if not all of, the season. These can sometimes be chosen at the start of the season, if you have a good idea of how a particular player will perform, based on the previous season. However, mostly you stumble upon these at least a few weeks in.
Half way into a season, certain players within your team will have risen by so much that selling them would mean losing a lot of value, and being unlikely to afford to get that player back in the future. These are your core players.
9
Importance of Fixtures Most top FPL managers pay close attention to fixtures. Whilst everyone knows how important form is, a great number of people don’t plan very far ahead when it comes to fixtures. A player’s upcoming fixtures are very important to consider because, for example, when teams face equally talented opponents, they tend to play more defensive and reserved. This will usually mean that an attacking player will get fewer chances to score, and it therefore might be a good idea to bench him in favour of a player who is facing an easier opponent. Fixtures are also important when you are looking at rotating your squad. If you have a couple of budget defenders, you need to make sure that their upcoming fixtures alternate well so that for each gameweek, one out of the two of them has a fairly good fixture.
10
Ways to Change Your Team Once you’ve selected your initial team at the beginning of the season, there are a few ways in which you can attempt to make improvements for the future. Weekly Transfers You get 1 free transfer per week. This means you can sell one of your players in exchange for any new player, providing that you have the money available to do so. You can also store up to 2 free transfers, if you need to prepare for a specific gameweek or if you just don’t think you need to make any changes to your squad in a particular week. In addition to this though, you can make as many transfers as you want. For each additional transfer, however, you will lose 4 points from your score in the following gameweek.
11
Substitutions Each gameweek, you must select the 11 players you wish to start and the 4 players you wish to keep on the bench. If you’ve planned your team well, you might have a couple of players with fixtures that rotate well. If you have a player that has been underperforming in recent weeks, you have the option of demoting him to your bench in place of someone with better form. You can also alternate your formation with substitutes. If you normally play 3 defenders but 4 of your defenders have particularly good fixtures one week, you could consider dropping a midfielder or forward to the bench in place of the extra defender.
12
Choice of Captain Each week, you must nominate one player to be your captain. The captain choice can make or break your gameweek because whoever you pick will have their points doubled for that gameweek. Be sure to check out the chapter on choosing a captain. Using Your Wildcards Finally, wildcards are a good way to clear out the old, injured or underperforming players from your squad and replace them with new, in-‐form players. There are a number of different situations in which a wildcard can be useful, from building team value to filling your team full of players with an upcoming double gameweek. Again, I will go into greater lengths on this topic later on in the book.
13
Choosing Players So now we’ve covered the basics, let’s dive into the ins and outs of choosing players. There are a number of things to think about, relating to each specific position. But first, here is a list of some of the more general things to consider when choosing a player:
•
Form,
•
Fixtures,
•
Injury status,
•
Rotation risk,
•
Price,
•
Suspension status/risk.
Goalkeepers You may decide to play one goalkeeper all the time and choose a cheap, non-‐playing keeper for your bench. However, it can also be a good idea to pick two cheap goalkeepers that rotate 14
well (with alternating, easy home games) and are guaranteed starters. The cheaper goalkeepers still tend to make a lot of saves and therefore get save points, so they can be a great option. Again, it’s something you can experiment with throughout the season and fixtures will play a big part in deciding which of the two strategies to go for. If for example, a Chelsea goalkeeper is the same price as or even more expensive than a Chelsea defender, it is usually a better idea to choose the defender for cover from that team, since he is just as likely to get a clean sheet, is more likely to pick up attacking points from goals or assists and is also more likely to be awarded bonus points. Defenders When it comes to defenders, there are always some great budget options from smaller teams. You can usually find a couple of budget defenders that rotate well – by which I mean you can alternate putting them in your starting lineup, based on
15
which one has the easiest fixture and the best chance of keeping a clean sheet. It’s definitely a good idea to have 5 regularly starting defenders, even if 2 or 3 of them are from smaller teams and only a couple are from the likes of: Arsenal, Man. City, Man. Utd, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Tottenham, etc. In most cases, the smaller teams rotate their squads less too, since they compete in fewer competitions. It’s a good idea to pick at least one defender from a team that is not competing in the Champion’s League because the top teams have bigger squads and are able to rotate them when they are competing in multiple competitions and this is a nightmare for FPL managers.
If you choose a defender that poses a significant attacking threat, it can be a good idea to stick to playing him each week as opposed to rotating him with other players in your squad -‐ while he might not keep a clean sheet against a strong
16
opponent, he may well nick a goal or assist. Also, if you’re paying a premium price for a defender with an attacking threat, it’s a waste to have him sitting on your bench. Midfielders It’s usually a good idea to avoid centre-‐midfielders, especially the ones that tend to play quite deep. While their roles are essential in real life football, in FPL terms they have very little value. An exception to the rule would be if a centre-‐midfielder was on set-‐pieces however, because then he would still be a goal threat. Generally though, wingers tend to get forward the most, and pick up the bulk of the midfield points in FPL, along with central attacking midfielders – who play behind the striker.
17
Forwards No expense should be spared on forwards, definitely go for players from the top teams, as these tend to score the most goals. Look for forwards that take penalties as well, because this is a reliable way to ensure you get the odd goal, even in difficult fixtures, and the top clubs tend to win the most penalties as a rule. Avoid picking players that are listed as forwards on the FPL website, but in real life play either on the left or right of an attacking 3, or behind the main striker. It’s best to go for players that are furthest forward and who are the target men for their teams’ attacks.
18
Player Types to Watch Out For Set-‐Piece Takers Set-‐pieces are a vital part of football, and a huge amount of goals are scored as a result of penalties, free kicks and corners. For this reason, it can be a good idea to find out which players take which set-‐pieces for each Premier League club. You may find a defender that takes penalties, or a £5m budget midfielder that is on all set-‐pieces for a mid-‐table team. Set-‐piece takers will obviously change with each season, as teams buy and sell players in the transfer windows, but this is an area where simply watching a lot of football, and doing plenty of research can come in handy. Out of Position Players Injuries are a big part of the game and as squad’s run thin, teams are often forced to employ their players in positions that
19
they don’t usually play. This can be useful for FPL if, for example, a defender is playing in midfield. The player will have more chance of scoring, whilst still being listed on the FPL website as playing in their former position, and this means they will be awarded more points for a goal than a typical midfielder, since they will still be scored as if they were playing in defence. Over the Christmas period, there are usually a large number of matches played over a short amount of time. For this reason, it can be a good idea to pay close attention to potential injuries that will force players to play out of position, during this time. “Sleepers” Occasionally there are players who, after a period of underperforming through loss of form or injury, suddenly get back to their best and emerge as a differential FPL option. It can sometimes be the case that a whole team will find form, after a period of disappointing results.
20
By Ryan Cook
Contents Chapter
Page No.
Introduction
3
The Basics
6
Ways to Change Your Team
11
Choosing Players
14
Player Types to Watch Out For
19
Player Types to Avoid
23
Choosing a Captain
26
An Introduction to Wildcards
32
Using Your Wildcards
34
Double Gameweeks
38
How to “Do Your Research”
40
Final Thoughts
46
Helpful Resources
47
2
Introduction Every year, millions of aspiring managers take part in the Official Fantasy Premier League football game. Since you’re reading this book, I’m guessing that you tend to finish higher than the average player already but there is always room for improvement. To consistently finish inside the top 10k, there are a number of things you have to consider.
First of all, it’s important to keep yourself up-‐to-‐date with the latest football news, and use this information to plan for future gameweeks. You can’t select the best fantasy team without knowing a few things about the real teams. Watching games, reading football news and researching the match statistics that precede the fantasy points, can be a great help. While it’s definitely true that you can fluke a few good gameweeks by playing the game “casually”, consistency is important in the long run, and this will come from careful planning and preparation.
3
Secondly, you’ll need a bit of luck. It’s all well and good selecting the best players on paper; based on form, fixtures, statistics, etc. But if your player suffers a long-‐term injury half way through his first game for you, all that effort will have been a waste. Sometimes, players who have been out of favour and haven’t played in weeks are given a game, and score a couple of goals. But again, this is something that you can’t really plan for. Some of these random occurrences will go in your favour, and some will go against you – we all have those “bad starts” or those “off weeks”. Finally, and in my opinion, the most important thing to consider is having a good foundation of FPL knowledge – the philosophy of fantasy football, if you like. It’s this third point that we will be primarily focussing on throughout this book. The managers that consistently finish inside the top 10k, or even the top 100k, don’t find themselves in that position by any accident – it’s through thorough planning and studying of the general rules and tips that we’re about to explore.
4
The good thing about the information I will reveal in this book is that once you’ve learned it, it will change the way you play the game forever. It’s a simple game for the casual player, but for the more dedicated player (the category I’m assuming you fall into since you’re reading this book) there are a few more things to think about that will instantly boost your chances of ranking highly.
5
The Basics It’s always good to start at the beginning, so below are various aspects of the game that you need to think carefully about when you first start the season. Some of these also apply throughout the season as well. Dividing Your Budget You need to think carefully about how much you are spending on each position: goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders and forwards. You also need to be aware of how much money you are investing in your starting lineup and how much you have stored in your bench players. It’s usually not a good idea to have your bench filled with expensive players that you aren’t earning points from. However, if you plan on rotating players, you will most likely have to spend more on your bench than if you plan on keeping the same 11 players each week.
6
When initially spending your £100m, you need to keep a balance. While you don’t want to waste huge amounts of money on your bench, you want to pick some players that you are fairly sure will play – in case any of your starting 11 don’t. As the season goes on, you should find it becomes easier to predict teams’ starting lineups and therefore select players that are likely to start games. But at the start of the season, real-life managers may be more inclined to experiment with their squad and attempt to integrate any new additions. Because of this factor, it’s a risky move to choose bench players that you know almost certainly won’t play. It’s also worth considering that even bench players can be used to build your team value, so selecting players that don’t play for your bench might be a waste of a potential opportunity to make some money for later on in the season.
The most common tactic is to spend the bulk of your budget on your 7 starting, attacking players. This could mean 5 midfielders and 2 strikers or 4 midfielders and 3 strikers but you definitely
7
want some reliable “big hitters” in there. Again, you may decide to choose a non-‐playing, cheap option for the 8th attacking player or alternatively, you could have 6 fairly strong attacking players and 2 weaker ones with fixtures that rotate well. Choosing Your Formation When it comes to formation, you don’t have all that much to decide. For most FPL managers, an attacking 7 is vital, and so they are forced to play 3 defenders for the majority of gameweeks. But given that defenders tend to depend almost solely on clean sheets for points, this is an ideal strategy, because clean sheets are often harder to predict than reliable goal scorers. Rotation Another tactic to consider is whether or not you will be making use of your full squad by rotating certain cheaper players, or whether you’ll stick to putting out more or less the same
8
starting XI every week, with your bench being occupied by non-‐ starters or super cheap, risky players that you don’t see yourself ever using. Both are valid strategies and you may decide to experiment with both throughout the season. Finding Your “Core” Players A core player is someone you plan on keeping for the majority of, if not all of, the season. These can sometimes be chosen at the start of the season, if you have a good idea of how a particular player will perform, based on the previous season. However, mostly you stumble upon these at least a few weeks in.
Half way into a season, certain players within your team will have risen by so much that selling them would mean losing a lot of value, and being unlikely to afford to get that player back in the future. These are your core players.
9
Importance of Fixtures Most top FPL managers pay close attention to fixtures. Whilst everyone knows how important form is, a great number of people don’t plan very far ahead when it comes to fixtures. A player’s upcoming fixtures are very important to consider because, for example, when teams face equally talented opponents, they tend to play more defensive and reserved. This will usually mean that an attacking player will get fewer chances to score, and it therefore might be a good idea to bench him in favour of a player who is facing an easier opponent. Fixtures are also important when you are looking at rotating your squad. If you have a couple of budget defenders, you need to make sure that their upcoming fixtures alternate well so that for each gameweek, one out of the two of them has a fairly good fixture.
10
Ways to Change Your Team Once you’ve selected your initial team at the beginning of the season, there are a few ways in which you can attempt to make improvements for the future. Weekly Transfers You get 1 free transfer per week. This means you can sell one of your players in exchange for any new player, providing that you have the money available to do so. You can also store up to 2 free transfers, if you need to prepare for a specific gameweek or if you just don’t think you need to make any changes to your squad in a particular week. In addition to this though, you can make as many transfers as you want. For each additional transfer, however, you will lose 4 points from your score in the following gameweek.
11
Substitutions Each gameweek, you must select the 11 players you wish to start and the 4 players you wish to keep on the bench. If you’ve planned your team well, you might have a couple of players with fixtures that rotate well. If you have a player that has been underperforming in recent weeks, you have the option of demoting him to your bench in place of someone with better form. You can also alternate your formation with substitutes. If you normally play 3 defenders but 4 of your defenders have particularly good fixtures one week, you could consider dropping a midfielder or forward to the bench in place of the extra defender.
12
Choice of Captain Each week, you must nominate one player to be your captain. The captain choice can make or break your gameweek because whoever you pick will have their points doubled for that gameweek. Be sure to check out the chapter on choosing a captain. Using Your Wildcards Finally, wildcards are a good way to clear out the old, injured or underperforming players from your squad and replace them with new, in-‐form players. There are a number of different situations in which a wildcard can be useful, from building team value to filling your team full of players with an upcoming double gameweek. Again, I will go into greater lengths on this topic later on in the book.
13
Choosing Players So now we’ve covered the basics, let’s dive into the ins and outs of choosing players. There are a number of things to think about, relating to each specific position. But first, here is a list of some of the more general things to consider when choosing a player:
•
Form,
•
Fixtures,
•
Injury status,
•
Rotation risk,
•
Price,
•
Suspension status/risk.
Goalkeepers You may decide to play one goalkeeper all the time and choose a cheap, non-‐playing keeper for your bench. However, it can also be a good idea to pick two cheap goalkeepers that rotate 14
well (with alternating, easy home games) and are guaranteed starters. The cheaper goalkeepers still tend to make a lot of saves and therefore get save points, so they can be a great option. Again, it’s something you can experiment with throughout the season and fixtures will play a big part in deciding which of the two strategies to go for. If for example, a Chelsea goalkeeper is the same price as or even more expensive than a Chelsea defender, it is usually a better idea to choose the defender for cover from that team, since he is just as likely to get a clean sheet, is more likely to pick up attacking points from goals or assists and is also more likely to be awarded bonus points. Defenders When it comes to defenders, there are always some great budget options from smaller teams. You can usually find a couple of budget defenders that rotate well – by which I mean you can alternate putting them in your starting lineup, based on
15
which one has the easiest fixture and the best chance of keeping a clean sheet. It’s definitely a good idea to have 5 regularly starting defenders, even if 2 or 3 of them are from smaller teams and only a couple are from the likes of: Arsenal, Man. City, Man. Utd, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Tottenham, etc. In most cases, the smaller teams rotate their squads less too, since they compete in fewer competitions. It’s a good idea to pick at least one defender from a team that is not competing in the Champion’s League because the top teams have bigger squads and are able to rotate them when they are competing in multiple competitions and this is a nightmare for FPL managers.
If you choose a defender that poses a significant attacking threat, it can be a good idea to stick to playing him each week as opposed to rotating him with other players in your squad -‐ while he might not keep a clean sheet against a strong
16
opponent, he may well nick a goal or assist. Also, if you’re paying a premium price for a defender with an attacking threat, it’s a waste to have him sitting on your bench. Midfielders It’s usually a good idea to avoid centre-‐midfielders, especially the ones that tend to play quite deep. While their roles are essential in real life football, in FPL terms they have very little value. An exception to the rule would be if a centre-‐midfielder was on set-‐pieces however, because then he would still be a goal threat. Generally though, wingers tend to get forward the most, and pick up the bulk of the midfield points in FPL, along with central attacking midfielders – who play behind the striker.
17
Forwards No expense should be spared on forwards, definitely go for players from the top teams, as these tend to score the most goals. Look for forwards that take penalties as well, because this is a reliable way to ensure you get the odd goal, even in difficult fixtures, and the top clubs tend to win the most penalties as a rule. Avoid picking players that are listed as forwards on the FPL website, but in real life play either on the left or right of an attacking 3, or behind the main striker. It’s best to go for players that are furthest forward and who are the target men for their teams’ attacks.
18
Player Types to Watch Out For Set-‐Piece Takers Set-‐pieces are a vital part of football, and a huge amount of goals are scored as a result of penalties, free kicks and corners. For this reason, it can be a good idea to find out which players take which set-‐pieces for each Premier League club. You may find a defender that takes penalties, or a £5m budget midfielder that is on all set-‐pieces for a mid-‐table team. Set-‐piece takers will obviously change with each season, as teams buy and sell players in the transfer windows, but this is an area where simply watching a lot of football, and doing plenty of research can come in handy. Out of Position Players Injuries are a big part of the game and as squad’s run thin, teams are often forced to employ their players in positions that
19
they don’t usually play. This can be useful for FPL if, for example, a defender is playing in midfield. The player will have more chance of scoring, whilst still being listed on the FPL website as playing in their former position, and this means they will be awarded more points for a goal than a typical midfielder, since they will still be scored as if they were playing in defence. Over the Christmas period, there are usually a large number of matches played over a short amount of time. For this reason, it can be a good idea to pay close attention to potential injuries that will force players to play out of position, during this time. “Sleepers” Occasionally there are players who, after a period of underperforming through loss of form or injury, suddenly get back to their best and emerge as a differential FPL option. It can sometimes be the case that a whole team will find form, after a period of disappointing results.
20
