Ian Butler INDA, Association of Nonwoven Fabrics Industry
Ian Butler INDA, Association of Nonwoven Fabrics Industry
Trends NAFTA Economy US Dollar Recycling “Green” Air Quality Issues Population Aging
Up Up Up Up Stable
Trends European Union Economy Euro Green “Made in Europe” Population Aging Country Defaults
Slow Growth Down Established & Up Up Increase Pending
Trends China Economy RMB Recycling Green Population Aging
Up Up Non-existent Stable
Gross Domestic Product By World Region Forecast Growth Rate Region
2011 World GDP ($, trillions) ($, share)
2016 ($, trillions)
2011-2016 (% per year)
NAFTA European Union China Japan India Rest of World
18.2 15.7 11.2 4.4 4.4 24.2
23% 21% 14% 6% 6% 30%
22.6 18.7 18.9 5.3 7.0 32.8
4.1 3.5 11.0 3.0 10.0 6.1
78.1
100.0%
105.3
6.0
WORLD Source: CIA estimates
Outlook for Worldwide Nonwovens Production
Dollars (billions) Sq Meters (billions) Tonnes (millions) Source: INDA estimates
Growth Growth Rate Rate 2016 1997-2010 2011-2016 (%/Year) (%/Year)
1997
2002
2011
$11
$15
$26
$37
6.2%
7.8%
61
93
205
305
8.7%
9.0%
2.7
4.0
7.6
11.1
7.7%
7.8%
Outlook for Worldwide Nonwovens Production (millions of tonnes)
Growth Rate Growth Rate 2006-2011 2011-2016 (%/Year) (%/Year)
2006
2011
2016
NAFTA
1.61
1.87
2.20
3.0%
3.3%
Europe
1.56
1.95
2.60
4.6%
5.9%
China
0.97
1.65
2.82
10.5%
12.0%
Other Asia Pacific
0.51
0.59
0.78
3.0%
5.7%
Japan
0.33
0.33
0.35
0.0%
1.2%
Middle East
0.26
0.32
0.45
3.6%
7.7%
Rest of World
0.44
0.90
1.88
16.6%
14.6%
5.68
7.61
11.08
6.0%
7.8%
TOTAL Source: INDA estimates
2011 NA Nonwovens Market 1.57 million tonnes LongLife 30% LongLife 32%
$6.0 billion
Source: INDA estimates
Short -Life 70%
Short -Life 68%
Summary of 2011 NA Disposable Market Value $ 4.1 (billion)
Protective Apparel 13%
Other Disposables 10%
Air/Liquid Filtration 20%
Source: INDA estimates
Absorbent Hygiene 20%
Wipes 19% Medical/ Surgical 18%
Summary of 2011 NA Disposable Market 1,091,000 (tonnes)
Protective Apparel 2%
Other Disposables 12%
Absorbent Hygiene 30%
Air/Liquid Filtration 15%
Medical/ Surgical 15% Source: INDA estimates
Wipes 26%
Baby Diaper Trends NAFTA sales stagnant due to sluggish economy in 2011. Expect much of the same in 2012. Increased promotional activity and bulk packaging to reduce costs to consumer Increasing segmentation of market: More product differentiation: Baby Diapers available in more colors … and print patterns More Seasonal and Limited Edition diapers (similar to Huggies’ Little Movers concept) Source: INDA estimates
Baby Diaper Trends Diaper components continue to move towards lower weights to reduce unit and shipping cost Development of small Vac-Packaged travel / emergency diapers for convenience
Source: INDA estimates
Feminine Care Trends Feminine pad designs trending to thinner, slimmer and lighter adult products Menstruation starting earlier and products under development for 10-14 year olds Pads and tampons are shorter, narrower and lighter Pads and tampons have brilliant colors and prints to attract youth (see U by Kotex products) Source: INDA estimates
Wipes Trends Expect more industry consolidation (Ahlstrom->Suominen) Flushable wipes issue continues to simmer. It is in our interest to understand flushability issues Airlaid Pulp and Wetlaid technologies recapturing some volume lost to spunlaced nonwovens Source: INDA estimates
Summary 2011 NA Durable Market $1.9 (billions) Other Durables 21%
Interlining 2%
Shoe Construction 1%
Upholstered furnishing & bedding 12%
Battery Separators 11%
Automotive 9%
Geotextiles 16% Coated & Laminates 6% Carpet components / backing 10% Source: INDA estimates
Agric/ Landscape 4%
Building Construction 8%
Summary 2011 NA Durable Market 476,000 Tonnes (thousands)
Battery Separators 3%
Other Interlining Shoe Durables 1% Construction 14% 1%
Coated & Laminates 6%
Upholstered furnishing & bedding 17% Automotive 7%
Carpet components/ backing 10%
Agric/ Landscape 6% Source: INDA estimates
Building Construction 10%
Geotextiles 25%
Outlook for 2012 Economy Forecast growth for NAFTA 3 - 4% No double dip recession Unemployment drops to 8% range Inflation contained Housing construction … starting to grow • Short term interest rates to remain low
• • • • •
Source: INDA estimates
Summary 2011 European Disposable Market 1,096,200 tonnes
Filtration 129 12% Hygiene 588 55%
Medical 58 5%
Wipes 321 28% Source: INDA Estimates
Summary 2011 European Durable Market (853,800 tonnes)
Other Carpet Durables components/ Coated & Laminates Battery 3% backing 5% Separators 4% 0% Interlining Carpet 4% components/ backing 10% Agric/ Landscape 5% Building Construction 30% Source: INDA estimates
Shoe Construction 3% Upholstered furnishing & bedding 12% Automotive 10% Geotextiles 14%
2011 European Nonwovens Market By Technology (1.95 million tonnes)
Wetlaid Composite 6% s 1%
Airlaid 10%
Spunmelt 43%
Spunlaced 12% Needled 10% Chemically -bonded 9% Source: INDA Estimates
Thermallybonded 9%
2011 Asian Nonwovens Market 2.6 million tonnes
India 6%
Other 4%
Japan 10%
Korea 7% Taiwan 5%
China 68% Source: ANFA estimates
2016 Nonwoven Projection in Asia 4.3 million tonnes
India 6%
China 79% Source: ANFA estimates
Other 3%
Japan Korea 5% 5%
Taiwan 2%
2011 U.S. Nonwovens Trade (thousands of tonnes, roll goods)
325
Exports 290 tonnes
300 275 250 225 200
Imports 190 tonnes
175 150 125 100 75 50 25
Source: INDA estimates
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
9 20 9 00
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89
0
U.S. 2011 Nonwoven Imports…Top 6 Countries (191,000 tonnes)
Other 36%
China 22%
Germany 7% Canada 7% Brazil 8% Source: INDA estimates
Israel 10% Mexico 9%
U.S. 2011 Nonwoven Exports … Top 6 Countries (290,000 tonnes)
Honduras 3%
Japan 4% Mexico, 21%
U.K. 4%
China 13% Canada 22%
• Latest converting applications using ultrasonic, coating, laminating, water jet, and laser technologies • New market opportunities and applications in medical, military, alternative energy, automotive, geotextiles, building/construction, protective barriers and more • Table-tops and receptions to maximize networking opportunities
Trends NAFTA Economy US Dollar Recycling “Green” Air Quality Issues Population Aging
Up Up Up Up Stable
Trends European Union Economy Euro Green “Made in Europe” Population Aging Country Defaults
Slow Growth Down Established & Up Up Increase Pending
Trends China Economy RMB Recycling Green Population Aging
Up Up Non-existent Stable
Gross Domestic Product By World Region Forecast Growth Rate Region
2011 World GDP ($, trillions) ($, share)
2016 ($, trillions)
2011-2016 (% per year)
NAFTA European Union China Japan India Rest of World
18.2 15.7 11.2 4.4 4.4 24.2
23% 21% 14% 6% 6% 30%
22.6 18.7 18.9 5.3 7.0 32.8
4.1 3.5 11.0 3.0 10.0 6.1
78.1
100.0%
105.3
6.0
WORLD Source: CIA estimates
Outlook for Worldwide Nonwovens Production
Dollars (billions) Sq Meters (billions) Tonnes (millions) Source: INDA estimates
Growth Growth Rate Rate 2016 1997-2010 2011-2016 (%/Year) (%/Year)
1997
2002
2011
$11
$15
$26
$37
6.2%
7.8%
61
93
205
305
8.7%
9.0%
2.7
4.0
7.6
11.1
7.7%
7.8%
Outlook for Worldwide Nonwovens Production (millions of tonnes)
Growth Rate Growth Rate 2006-2011 2011-2016 (%/Year) (%/Year)
2006
2011
2016
NAFTA
1.61
1.87
2.20
3.0%
3.3%
Europe
1.56
1.95
2.60
4.6%
5.9%
China
0.97
1.65
2.82
10.5%
12.0%
Other Asia Pacific
0.51
0.59
0.78
3.0%
5.7%
Japan
0.33
0.33
0.35
0.0%
1.2%
Middle East
0.26
0.32
0.45
3.6%
7.7%
Rest of World
0.44
0.90
1.88
16.6%
14.6%
5.68
7.61
11.08
6.0%
7.8%
TOTAL Source: INDA estimates
2011 NA Nonwovens Market 1.57 million tonnes LongLife 30% LongLife 32%
$6.0 billion
Source: INDA estimates
Short -Life 70%
Short -Life 68%
Summary of 2011 NA Disposable Market Value $ 4.1 (billion)
Protective Apparel 13%
Other Disposables 10%
Air/Liquid Filtration 20%
Source: INDA estimates
Absorbent Hygiene 20%
Wipes 19% Medical/ Surgical 18%
Summary of 2011 NA Disposable Market 1,091,000 (tonnes)
Protective Apparel 2%
Other Disposables 12%
Absorbent Hygiene 30%
Air/Liquid Filtration 15%
Medical/ Surgical 15% Source: INDA estimates
Wipes 26%
Baby Diaper Trends NAFTA sales stagnant due to sluggish economy in 2011. Expect much of the same in 2012. Increased promotional activity and bulk packaging to reduce costs to consumer Increasing segmentation of market: More product differentiation: Baby Diapers available in more colors … and print patterns More Seasonal and Limited Edition diapers (similar to Huggies’ Little Movers concept) Source: INDA estimates
Baby Diaper Trends Diaper components continue to move towards lower weights to reduce unit and shipping cost Development of small Vac-Packaged travel / emergency diapers for convenience
Source: INDA estimates
Feminine Care Trends Feminine pad designs trending to thinner, slimmer and lighter adult products Menstruation starting earlier and products under development for 10-14 year olds Pads and tampons are shorter, narrower and lighter Pads and tampons have brilliant colors and prints to attract youth (see U by Kotex products) Source: INDA estimates
Wipes Trends Expect more industry consolidation (Ahlstrom->Suominen) Flushable wipes issue continues to simmer. It is in our interest to understand flushability issues Airlaid Pulp and Wetlaid technologies recapturing some volume lost to spunlaced nonwovens Source: INDA estimates
Summary 2011 NA Durable Market $1.9 (billions) Other Durables 21%
Interlining 2%
Shoe Construction 1%
Upholstered furnishing & bedding 12%
Battery Separators 11%
Automotive 9%
Geotextiles 16% Coated & Laminates 6% Carpet components / backing 10% Source: INDA estimates
Agric/ Landscape 4%
Building Construction 8%
Summary 2011 NA Durable Market 476,000 Tonnes (thousands)
Battery Separators 3%
Other Interlining Shoe Durables 1% Construction 14% 1%
Coated & Laminates 6%
Upholstered furnishing & bedding 17% Automotive 7%
Carpet components/ backing 10%
Agric/ Landscape 6% Source: INDA estimates
Building Construction 10%
Geotextiles 25%
Outlook for 2012 Economy Forecast growth for NAFTA 3 - 4% No double dip recession Unemployment drops to 8% range Inflation contained Housing construction … starting to grow • Short term interest rates to remain low
• • • • •
Source: INDA estimates
Summary 2011 European Disposable Market 1,096,200 tonnes
Filtration 129 12% Hygiene 588 55%
Medical 58 5%
Wipes 321 28% Source: INDA Estimates
Summary 2011 European Durable Market (853,800 tonnes)
Other Carpet Durables components/ Coated & Laminates Battery 3% backing 5% Separators 4% 0% Interlining Carpet 4% components/ backing 10% Agric/ Landscape 5% Building Construction 30% Source: INDA estimates
Shoe Construction 3% Upholstered furnishing & bedding 12% Automotive 10% Geotextiles 14%
2011 European Nonwovens Market By Technology (1.95 million tonnes)
Wetlaid Composite 6% s 1%
Airlaid 10%
Spunmelt 43%
Spunlaced 12% Needled 10% Chemically -bonded 9% Source: INDA Estimates
Thermallybonded 9%
2011 Asian Nonwovens Market 2.6 million tonnes
India 6%
Other 4%
Japan 10%
Korea 7% Taiwan 5%
China 68% Source: ANFA estimates
2016 Nonwoven Projection in Asia 4.3 million tonnes
India 6%
China 79% Source: ANFA estimates
Other 3%
Japan Korea 5% 5%
Taiwan 2%
2011 U.S. Nonwovens Trade (thousands of tonnes, roll goods)
325
Exports 290 tonnes
300 275 250 225 200
Imports 190 tonnes
175 150 125 100 75 50 25
Source: INDA estimates
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
9 20 9 00
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89
0
U.S. 2011 Nonwoven Imports…Top 6 Countries (191,000 tonnes)
Other 36%
China 22%
Germany 7% Canada 7% Brazil 8% Source: INDA estimates
Israel 10% Mexico 9%
U.S. 2011 Nonwoven Exports … Top 6 Countries (290,000 tonnes)
Honduras 3%
Japan 4% Mexico, 21%
U.K. 4%
China 13% Canada 22%
• Latest converting applications using ultrasonic, coating, laminating, water jet, and laser technologies • New market opportunities and applications in medical, military, alternative energy, automotive, geotextiles, building/construction, protective barriers and more • Table-tops and receptions to maximize networking opportunities
