IHS Automotive - Cenex LCV
IHS Automotive Low Carbon Vehicle Production: Global Overview Ben Scott Analyst, IHS Automotive +44 (0) 1933 40 22 55 [email protected]
About IHS and IHS Automotive •
The Source for critical information and insight.
•
6,000 colleagues in 140+ offices, speaking 50 languages. $1.7bn in expected revenues in 2013.
•
IHS Automotive made up of experts from the former CSM Worldwide, IHS Global Insight's Automotive Group, as well as Supplier Business, iSuppli, IMS Research and Polk.
Light Vehicle Production Forecasts
Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts
Covering 50+ countries representing 99% of global volume
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Covering 99 countries representing 97% of global volume
Components
Technology
PARC
Covering 50+ automotive components and systems
Infotainment Software & Apps HMI/ Usability ADAS Hybrid-EV
Vehicle registration and PARC data through recent $1.4 billion acquisition of Polk
Low Carbon Vehicle Production: Global Overview 6 Stars of Alignment
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Regional Electrification Deployment Europe, Greater China, Japan/Korea and North America EVs
PHEVs
Europe will take pole position on EV and PHEV production volume (combined). Japan/Korea and North America with relatively low EV volume, compared to Europe and Greater China PHEV volume will be approximately the same in Japan/Korea and North America in the 2015 timeframe. For 2020 most PHEV production volume is forecasted for Europe. Electrification strategy depends on system costs and benefits, OEM strategies, vehicle mix, fuel mix and effort required to reach CO2 target. Note: Figures based upon regional vehicle production
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
European Production Accelerates European Light Vehicle Production – Propulsion System Design 800,000
Vehicle Production n [ ]
700,000 600,000
EVs and PHEVs
500,000 400,000
HybridFull
300,000 200,000
HybridMild
100,000
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0
EU ‘Grid Dependant’ Production EU Production Volume (Car)
EU Accumulated Production Volume (Car)
800,000
4,000,000
PHEVs
EVs
Accumulated
700,000
3,500,000
600,000
3,000,000
500,000
2,500,000
400,000
2,000,000
300,000
1,500,000
200,000
1,000,000
100,000
500,000
0
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
Mid term trend • Europe a dominant player • Natural ceiling in Europe due to diesel alternative & demographic factors • Most increase due to Plug-In Hybrids
Electric Vehicles: very modest European Production Acceleration European Light Vehicle Production – Propulsion System Design 10%
24,000,000
Vehicle Production
8% 22,000,000
7%
21,000,000
6% 5%
20,000,000
4%
19,000,000
3% 2%
18,000,000
1% 0%
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
17,000,000
Market Share %
9%
23,000,000
Vehicles with ICE (including ICE: Stop/Start) Grand Total
Market Share EVs (right scale)
Hybrids - European Production Accelerates European Light Vehicle Production – Propulsion System Design 10%
24,000,000 23,000,000 Vehicle Production
8% 22,000,000
7%
21,000,000
6% 5%
20,000,000
4%
19,000,000
3% 2%
18,000,000
1% 0%
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
17,000,000
Market Share %
9%
Non Hybrids (incl. ICE: Stop/Start)
Grand Total
Market Share Hybrids (right scale)
Top 5 EV OEMs Europe Renault/Nissan is expected to be the main producer of purely electric vehicles in Europe
400,000 350,000
Toyota
Daimler
Ford
Volkswagen
Renault/Nissan
300,000
Aygo
250,000
Fortwo
200,000
Focus
150,000
Up! Golf
100,000
Zoe Fluence Leaf
50,000 0 2010
2011
2012
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Top 5 PHEV OEMs Europe Manufacturers seek to offer hybrid solutions for customers with “plugged-in” lifestyles.
400,000 350,000
Geely
Tata
(Volvo)
(JLR)
PSA
BMW
Volkswagen
V60 Evoque
300,000
C4
250,000
i3 1series, 3series…
200,000 150,000
Golf A3/A4/… Touareg
100,000 50,000 0 2010
2011
2012
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Summary • 6 Stars of Alignment - Government ‘Forcing’ CO2 Target 2020. • OEM and Supplier Risk. • Infrastructure and CO2 legislation will still support continuation of PHEV and advanced ICE. • 2031-2037 - fuel cell powered EV’s?
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Thank you for listening Ben Scott Analyst, IHS Automotive [email protected]
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
About IHS and IHS Automotive •
The Source for critical information and insight.
•
6,000 colleagues in 140+ offices, speaking 50 languages. $1.7bn in expected revenues in 2013.
•
IHS Automotive made up of experts from the former CSM Worldwide, IHS Global Insight's Automotive Group, as well as Supplier Business, iSuppli, IMS Research and Polk.
Light Vehicle Production Forecasts
Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts
Covering 50+ countries representing 99% of global volume
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Covering 99 countries representing 97% of global volume
Components
Technology
PARC
Covering 50+ automotive components and systems
Infotainment Software & Apps HMI/ Usability ADAS Hybrid-EV
Vehicle registration and PARC data through recent $1.4 billion acquisition of Polk
Low Carbon Vehicle Production: Global Overview 6 Stars of Alignment
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Regional Electrification Deployment Europe, Greater China, Japan/Korea and North America EVs
PHEVs
Europe will take pole position on EV and PHEV production volume (combined). Japan/Korea and North America with relatively low EV volume, compared to Europe and Greater China PHEV volume will be approximately the same in Japan/Korea and North America in the 2015 timeframe. For 2020 most PHEV production volume is forecasted for Europe. Electrification strategy depends on system costs and benefits, OEM strategies, vehicle mix, fuel mix and effort required to reach CO2 target. Note: Figures based upon regional vehicle production
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
European Production Accelerates European Light Vehicle Production – Propulsion System Design 800,000
Vehicle Production n [ ]
700,000 600,000
EVs and PHEVs
500,000 400,000
HybridFull
300,000 200,000
HybridMild
100,000
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0
EU ‘Grid Dependant’ Production EU Production Volume (Car)
EU Accumulated Production Volume (Car)
800,000
4,000,000
PHEVs
EVs
Accumulated
700,000
3,500,000
600,000
3,000,000
500,000
2,500,000
400,000
2,000,000
300,000
1,500,000
200,000
1,000,000
100,000
500,000
0
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0
Mid term trend • Europe a dominant player • Natural ceiling in Europe due to diesel alternative & demographic factors • Most increase due to Plug-In Hybrids
Electric Vehicles: very modest European Production Acceleration European Light Vehicle Production – Propulsion System Design 10%
24,000,000
Vehicle Production
8% 22,000,000
7%
21,000,000
6% 5%
20,000,000
4%
19,000,000
3% 2%
18,000,000
1% 0%
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
17,000,000
Market Share %
9%
23,000,000
Vehicles with ICE (including ICE: Stop/Start) Grand Total
Market Share EVs (right scale)
Hybrids - European Production Accelerates European Light Vehicle Production – Propulsion System Design 10%
24,000,000 23,000,000 Vehicle Production
8% 22,000,000
7%
21,000,000
6% 5%
20,000,000
4%
19,000,000
3% 2%
18,000,000
1% 0%
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
17,000,000
Market Share %
9%
Non Hybrids (incl. ICE: Stop/Start)
Grand Total
Market Share Hybrids (right scale)
Top 5 EV OEMs Europe Renault/Nissan is expected to be the main producer of purely electric vehicles in Europe
400,000 350,000
Toyota
Daimler
Ford
Volkswagen
Renault/Nissan
300,000
Aygo
250,000
Fortwo
200,000
Focus
150,000
Up! Golf
100,000
Zoe Fluence Leaf
50,000 0 2010
2011
2012
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Top 5 PHEV OEMs Europe Manufacturers seek to offer hybrid solutions for customers with “plugged-in” lifestyles.
400,000 350,000
Geely
Tata
(Volvo)
(JLR)
PSA
BMW
Volkswagen
V60 Evoque
300,000
C4
250,000
i3 1series, 3series…
200,000 150,000
Golf A3/A4/… Touareg
100,000 50,000 0 2010
2011
2012
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Summary • 6 Stars of Alignment - Government ‘Forcing’ CO2 Target 2020. • OEM and Supplier Risk. • Infrastructure and CO2 legislation will still support continuation of PHEV and advanced ICE. • 2031-2037 - fuel cell powered EV’s?
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Thank you for listening Ben Scott Analyst, IHS Automotive [email protected]
Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
