Industry continues to face difficulties
CNI Indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 3 • March 2018
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industry continues to face difficulties The March issue of CNI’s Industrial Indicators survey shows that industry is still struggling and continues to recover slowly. March is usually a month of stronger industrial activity as compared to the first two months in the year. After seasonal adjustments, however, part of the indicators making up the Industrial Indicators survey experienced a decline between February and March. Sales are down, reversing the increase observed in the
first two months of the year, while hours worked declined for the second consecutive month and employment fell after a five-month uptrend. Capacity utilization in turn is up and reached its highest point in almost three years. In addition, real average earnings and real total payroll also continue to trend upward.
Industrial indicators - March 2018 Seasonally adjusted change from February 2018
Ç da Construção
Média
Ç Indústria de Energia
Ç Indústrias Diversas
Grande
REAL SALES Down by 2.5%
Ç
EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.2%
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 0.9%
Ç
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Up by 0.8%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Up by 0.2 percentage point
Ç
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Up by 2.0%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 3 • March 2018
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sales fall in March
130
Real sales in industry recorded a 2.5% decline in March on a seasonally adjusted month-overmonth basis. The decline breaks a sequence of two monthly consecutive increases (of 0.9% each) and marks the worst monthly result in five months. Yet, March saw a 1.6% year-on-year increase in real sales, while the first quarter of 2018 saw a 6.2% increase in the indicator as compared to the corresponding period last year.
120
110
100
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Employment recovery comes to a halt
112
Industrial employment dropped by 0.2% between February and March 2018 in the seasonally adjusted series. This marked the first decline in five months, a period in which employment grew by a total of 1.3%. Jobs are up by 0.5% in March 2018 on a yearover-year basis. The indicator is also up by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2018 as compared to the same quarter the year before.
107
102
97
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked fall for second straight month
100
95
90
85
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
2
Seasonally adjusted hours worked in production edged down by 0.9% in March. This marked the second monthly decline in hours worked for the first time since the two-month period from July to August 2016. Hours worked in production are once again down on a year-on-year basis: -0.7% between March 2017 and 2018. In the quarter, however, the year-on-year figure is still positive: up by 0.5% as compared to the first quarter in 2017.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 3 • March 2018
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 130
Total payroll still on the rise
125
Total payroll experienced a 0.8% growth in March on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis. This marked the third consecutive increase in the index, a period during which total payroll increased by 2.5%. In March 2018, total payroll is up by 2.7% from the figure observed in the same month a year ago. In the first quarter of the year, the indicator shows a lower growth rate of 1.5% as compared to the same period in 2017.
120
115
110
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Earnings also trending upward
130
Real average earnings of industrial workers posted a seasonally adjusted increase of 2% in March 2018. The index is also up for the third month in a row. Compared with March 2017, real average earnings recorded growth of 2.2%. The indicator is up by 1.0% in the first quarter of 2018 from the same period the year before.
125
120
115
110
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
Deflator: INPC-IBGE Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
81
78.2% 79 Grande
77
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
3
Capacity utilization grows again Capacity utilization increased by 0.2 percentage points between February and March 2018, hitting the mark of 78.2% in the seasonally adjusted series. The capacity utilization rate is at its highest point since July 2015, when the indicator stood at 78.5%. The figure is up by 1.2 percentage points from that recorded in March 2017, while the average capacity utilization rate for the first quarter of 2018 is 1.1 percentage points higher than the one observed in the same period the year before.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 3 • March 2018
Resume of results - Industrial indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
MAR18/ FEB18
MAR18/ FEB18 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
MAR18/ MAR17
JAN-MAR18/ JAN-MAR17
12.2
-2.5
1.6
6.2
Worked hours in production
5.8
-0.9
-0.7
0.5
Employment
0.2
-0.2
0.5
0.5
Real total payroll2
4.7
0.8
2.7
1.5
Real average earnings2
4.5
2.0
2.2
1.0
Real sales1
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
MAR18
FEB18
MAR17
Capacity utilization
78.1
76.6
76.9
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
78.2
78.0
77.0
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores Industriais março/2018” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Simone Broch | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
INDUSTRIAL INDICATORS Industry continues to face difficulties The March issue of CNI’s Industrial Indicators survey shows that industry is still struggling and continues to recover slowly. March is usually a month of stronger industrial activity as compared to the first two months in the year. After seasonal adjustments, however, part of the indicators making up the Industrial Indicators survey experienced a decline between February and March. Sales are down, reversing the increase observed in the
first two months of the year, while hours worked declined for the second consecutive month and employment fell after a five-month uptrend. Capacity utilization in turn is up and reached its highest point in almost three years. In addition, real average earnings and real total payroll also continue to trend upward.
Industrial indicators - March 2018 Seasonally adjusted change from February 2018
Ç da Construção
Média
Ç Indústria de Energia
Ç Indústrias Diversas
Grande
REAL SALES Down by 2.5%
Ç
EMPLOYMENT Down by 0.2%
HOURS WORKED IN PRODUCTION Down by 0.9%
Ç
REAL TOTAL PAYROLL Up by 0.8%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION Up by 0.2 percentage point
Ç
REAL AVERAGE EARNINGS Up by 2.0%
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 3 • March 2018
Real Sales Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Sales fall in March
130
Real sales in industry recorded a 2.5% decline in March on a seasonally adjusted month-overmonth basis. The decline breaks a sequence of two monthly consecutive increases (of 0.9% each) and marks the worst monthly result in five months. Yet, March saw a 1.6% year-on-year increase in real sales, while the first quarter of 2018 saw a 6.2% increase in the indicator as compared to the corresponding period last year.
120
110
100
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV
Employment Seasonally adjusted (fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Employment recovery comes to a halt
112
Industrial employment dropped by 0.2% between February and March 2018 in the seasonally adjusted series. This marked the first decline in five months, a period in which employment grew by a total of 1.3%. Jobs are up by 0.5% in March 2018 on a yearover-year basis. The indicator is also up by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2018 as compared to the same quarter the year before.
107
102
97
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
Hours worked in production Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Hours worked fall for second straight month
100
95
90
85
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
2
Seasonally adjusted hours worked in production edged down by 0.9% in March. This marked the second monthly decline in hours worked for the first time since the two-month period from July to August 2016. Hours worked in production are once again down on a year-on-year basis: -0.7% between March 2017 and 2018. In the quarter, however, the year-on-year figure is still positive: up by 0.5% as compared to the first quarter in 2017.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 3 • March 2018
Real total payroll Seasonally-adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100) 130
Total payroll still on the rise
125
Total payroll experienced a 0.8% growth in March on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis. This marked the third consecutive increase in the index, a period during which total payroll increased by 2.5%. In March 2018, total payroll is up by 2.7% from the figure observed in the same month a year ago. In the first quarter of the year, the indicator shows a lower growth rate of 1.5% as compared to the same period in 2017.
120
115
110
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
Deflator: INPC-IBGE
Real average earnings Seasonally adjusted (Fixed-base index: 2006 average = 100)
Earnings also trending upward
130
Real average earnings of industrial workers posted a seasonally adjusted increase of 2% in March 2018. The index is also up for the third month in a row. Compared with March 2017, real average earnings recorded growth of 2.2%. The indicator is up by 1.0% in the first quarter of 2018 from the same period the year before.
125
120
115
110
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
Deflator: INPC-IBGE Indústria de Energia
Capacity utilization Seasonally adjusted (average percentage)
ias Diversas
81
78.2% 79 Grande
77
Mar/15
Sep/15
Mar/16
Sep/16
Mar/17
Sep/17
Mar/18
3
Capacity utilization grows again Capacity utilization increased by 0.2 percentage points between February and March 2018, hitting the mark of 78.2% in the seasonally adjusted series. The capacity utilization rate is at its highest point since July 2015, when the indicator stood at 78.5%. The figure is up by 1.2 percentage points from that recorded in March 2017, while the average capacity utilization rate for the first quarter of 2018 is 1.1 percentage points higher than the one observed in the same period the year before.
Industrial indicators ISSN 1983-621X • Year 26 • Number 3 • March 2018
Resume of results - Industrial indicators PERCENTAGE CHANGE
MAR18/ FEB18
MAR18/ FEB18 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
MAR18/ MAR17
JAN-MAR18/ JAN-MAR17
12.2
-2.5
1.6
6.2
Worked hours in production
5.8
-0.9
-0.7
0.5
Employment
0.2
-0.2
0.5
0.5
Real total payroll2
4.7
0.8
2.7
1.5
Real average earnings2
4.5
2.0
2.2
1.0
Real sales1
1 Deflator: IPA/OG-FGV - 2 Deflator: INPC-IBGE
AVERAGE PERCENTAGE
MAR18
FEB18
MAR17
Capacity utilization
78.1
76.6
76.9
Capacity utilization - Seasonally adjusted
78.2
78.0
77.0
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral results, previous editions, methodology and historical series, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_indindustriais
INDUSTR IAL IN D ICATOR S | English version of “Indicadores Industriais março/2018” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Edson Velloso and Priscila Garcia | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Simone Broch | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is cited.
