INFORMATION February 20, 1976 MEMORANDUM FOR: BRENT
DECLASSIFIED A/ISS/IPS, Department of State E.O. 12958, as amended MEMORANDUM February 27, 2009
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
INFORMATION February 20, 1976
MEMORANDUM FOR: FROM:
BRENT SCOWCROFT [initialed]
THOMAS
SUBJECT:
J.
BARNES
Thai Elections and Its Implications for the U. S.
The Intelligence Community has prepared an inter-agency memorandum (Tab A) assessing the current Thai election campaign and its i m p l i c a tions for the United States. We have already briefed the key points of this a s s e s s m e n t to you and the President. Because the memorandum indicates that there is a strong possibility that the Thai military may assume control of the government at some point before the elections or some time soon thereafter, we are sending it to you again to insure that you are familiar with it. In his covering m e m o transmitting the study to you (Tab B), George Bush states that the Intelligence Community gave serious consideration to issuing the study as an alert memorandum. It states further that the decision not to do so should not be construed as a sign of complacency about affairs in Thailand. He added that the situation in Thailand is fluid, and subject to quick and dramatic changes. Coup plotting has continued since the Intelligence Community issued the m e m o . Two A m e r i c a n s have approached our Embassy on behalf of groups allegedly ready to attempt a military takeover of the government. [textnotdeclassified] several military officers have been actively discussing this possibility. A m b a s s a d o r Whitehouse's m o s t recent judgment on this subject is that, while several groups are actively c o n sidering a coup, there is nothing to indicate an imminent attempt. The key points of the intelligence study are: - - Thailand is experiencing a growing sense of malaise concerning the country's experiment with parliamentary d e m o c r a c y . In this circumstance, there is a strong possibility that the military might decide to assume control.
DECLASSIFIED A/ISS/IPS, Department of State E.O. 12958, as amended February 27, 2009
~~ A sharp deterioration of security, a breakdown in public o r d e r , or the prospect of a left-of-center coalition government coming to power after the election would increase the likelihood of a coup. The election campaign will probably complicate T h a i - U . S . r e lations. The U.S. p r e s e n c e is likely to b e c o m e an issue in the campaign, and some p r e s s u r e s may force candidates to insist on a total U.S. m i l i tary withdrawal. The U.S. will probably be able to complete the negotiations now in train with the Khukrit government regarding the residual U.S. military presence. - - But there is no assurance that a new government will honor what Khukrit agrees to. - - If the election goes ahead as scheduled, another c e n t r i s t - c o n s e r v a t i v e government would likely c o m e into power. -U.S. m o r e or less along present lines. - - A less likely possibility is either a coalition based exclusively on rightist elements, or one which included the Socialists. - - A government in which the Socialists had a strong voice would make it difficult, if not impossible, for the U . S . to maintain any military p r e s e n c e in Thailand. Such a government could prompt the military either to force the government to resign or to overthrow it. In the event of a military takeover, the resultant government would be sympathetic to U . S . interests.
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
INFORMATION February 20, 1976
MEMORANDUM FOR: FROM:
BRENT SCOWCROFT [initialed]
THOMAS
SUBJECT:
J.
BARNES
Thai Elections and Its Implications for the U. S.
The Intelligence Community has prepared an inter-agency memorandum (Tab A) assessing the current Thai election campaign and its i m p l i c a tions for the United States. We have already briefed the key points of this a s s e s s m e n t to you and the President. Because the memorandum indicates that there is a strong possibility that the Thai military may assume control of the government at some point before the elections or some time soon thereafter, we are sending it to you again to insure that you are familiar with it. In his covering m e m o transmitting the study to you (Tab B), George Bush states that the Intelligence Community gave serious consideration to issuing the study as an alert memorandum. It states further that the decision not to do so should not be construed as a sign of complacency about affairs in Thailand. He added that the situation in Thailand is fluid, and subject to quick and dramatic changes. Coup plotting has continued since the Intelligence Community issued the m e m o . Two A m e r i c a n s have approached our Embassy on behalf of groups allegedly ready to attempt a military takeover of the government. [textnotdeclassified] several military officers have been actively discussing this possibility. A m b a s s a d o r Whitehouse's m o s t recent judgment on this subject is that, while several groups are actively c o n sidering a coup, there is nothing to indicate an imminent attempt. The key points of the intelligence study are: - - Thailand is experiencing a growing sense of malaise concerning the country's experiment with parliamentary d e m o c r a c y . In this circumstance, there is a strong possibility that the military might decide to assume control.
DECLASSIFIED A/ISS/IPS, Department of State E.O. 12958, as amended February 27, 2009
~~ A sharp deterioration of security, a breakdown in public o r d e r , or the prospect of a left-of-center coalition government coming to power after the election would increase the likelihood of a coup. The election campaign will probably complicate T h a i - U . S . r e lations. The U.S. p r e s e n c e is likely to b e c o m e an issue in the campaign, and some p r e s s u r e s may force candidates to insist on a total U.S. m i l i tary withdrawal. The U.S. will probably be able to complete the negotiations now in train with the Khukrit government regarding the residual U.S. military presence. - - But there is no assurance that a new government will honor what Khukrit agrees to. - - If the election goes ahead as scheduled, another c e n t r i s t - c o n s e r v a t i v e government would likely c o m e into power. -U.S. m o r e or less along present lines. - - A less likely possibility is either a coalition based exclusively on rightist elements, or one which included the Socialists. - - A government in which the Socialists had a strong voice would make it difficult, if not impossible, for the U . S . to maintain any military p r e s e n c e in Thailand. Such a government could prompt the military either to force the government to resign or to overthrow it. In the event of a military takeover, the resultant government would be sympathetic to U . S . interests.
