Infrastructure
ALABC
Latin American Infrastructure Forum 2017 Overview of Infrastructure Developments in Latin America Jorge H. Kogan Melbourne, Australia May 23, 2017
I.
Infrastructure in Latin America: present situation and investment gaps
II.
The strategic agenda
III.
Sector Outlooks and Scenarios
IV.
Knowledge and capacity building
V.
PPPs in Latin America
CAF: An overview Members: 19 countries • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Argentina Barbados Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador Jamaica Mexico Panama Paraguay Peru Portugal Spain Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela
CAF: Portfolio
Ratings: Fitch Ratings: AAJapan Credit Rating Agency: AA Moody´s Investors Service: Aa3 Standard & Poor´s: AA-
Infrastructure is a powerful tool and a critical enabler of sustainable development… • Articulates natural resources with production and consumption centers • Unites the territory, reduce travel times and generate proximity, concentration and economies of scale • Reduces poverty and improves quality of life
• Stimulates economic growth and trade • Connects neighborhoods, cities, regions, nations and continents • Latin America faces a unique opportunity to achieve comprehensive
development in the coming decades. Infrastructure is a pillar for this. • CAF interventions in infrastructure seek to be integral at all stages of the project: – Economic; Social; Environmental Sustainability; Institutional; Knowledge; Regional integration, Finance
Latin America: significant gaps in the quality of Infrastructure Quality of overall infrastructure index 1-7
6
Important challenges in infrastructure The present situation varies significantly across sectors: • Energy: electricity and telecommunications services are acceptable • Transport: ports and airports need additional development • Greater challenges are in water and sewerage, roads, urban transport and railways • Taking into account the positive prospects for the region and population aspirations, these challenges are becoming urgent
7
Infrastructure investment in Latin America is less than 3% of GDP Transport, Telecom, Electricity, Gas, Water Public and Private Investment
5.00 4.50
Priv.
Regional Average 2.9% of GDP (1.9% Pub + 1.0 % Priv)
4.00
Pub.
% of GDP
3.50 3.00 2.50
2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 ARG
BOL
BRA
CHI
COL
Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador and Peru invest more than the average. More recently Honduras and Panama up; Brazil down
Source: IDeAL 2013 (CAF, 2013); 11 countries analized with data available
ECU
GUA
MEX
PAR
ER
URU
Private sector investment participation grew in countries like Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay due to PPPs, new legal and institutional frameworks 8
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Infrastructure investment as % of GDP
Infrastructure: LAC currently invests less than in the 80s
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Public inv. Private inv. Total inv.
Source: Calderón & Servén (2010); CAF (2011)
9
Significant Investment is required to bridge the gap - To overcome the deficit in infrastructure and keep up with growth and development, the region needs to invest annually between 5% and 6% of GDP. This does not take into account maintenance expenditures - The annual requirements are around US$200,000 250,000 million - Demands important efforts by the public and private sectors with the support of IFIs
10
Public and private investment by sector
11
With the end of the commodities supercycle...
12
…the Latin American economies have suffered significant reductions in growth …and recessions in 2015 and 2016
13
Demand for services has decelerated… Electricity
Air transport
Annual growth of passengers by regional airlines
Telecommunications
Annual growth of penetration of mobile broadband in Latin America
Maritime transport flat in the South
Variation of container movements in the10 main ports of each sub-region. In millons of TEU
14
Investment in infrastructure in 2016 drop to 2008 levels… Total Investment, all sector, public and private, as a % of GDP and in Millon USD
Historical Data
Presunción
15
Latin America has significant growth opportunities that will require adequate infrastructure • Domestic markets, even when considered on a regional basis , are not big enough to enable sustainable growth • Latin America will need to build new positions in global markets • Several potential Growth Engines, that will require adequate Infrastructure • Investment in infrastructure , by itself, will create opportunities for employment and enterprise development
Continue building on Agriculture and move into processed foods
Grow in Life Sciences Hydrocarbons and Mining Specialized Manufacturing Knowledge-Intensive Services
Tourism Address Infrastructure Gaps 16
The strategic agenda • Significantly increase investment in infrastructure • Within the context of a sustainable development paradigm • Strengthen institutions – capacity building, planning, coordination, more and better projects • Adequately articulate the sources of funding • i.e. Effective engagement between public and private sectors • Promote the development of infrastructure-related companies • Promote the exchange of knowledge and best practices between governments, regions and cities • i.e. Robust information for decision making process 17
There will be new investment opportunities in the coming years Port Terminals Container Port terminal concessions underway in Latin America
New concessions coming for Container Port terminals in Latin America • Iquique (Chile): Expansion of terminal 1 or construction of a new terminal
• Manta (Ecuador): Modernization of existing port
• Callao (Peru): Construction of new container terminal at north-west outer area (long term, various phases)
• Ilo (Peru): Expansion and modernization of existing port
• Valparaíso/San Antonio (Chile): Construction and operation of new outer port terminal (long term, various phases)
• Chimbote (Peru): DFBOT for a container terminal
• Suape (Brasil): New container terminal
• Salaverry (Peru): Modernization of existing multi-purpose port • Corozal (Panama): Greenfield project, container terminal at the pacific side of Panama canal.
• Santos (Brasil): Modernization and integration of various container terminals • Manaus (Brasil): New container terminal • Buenos Aires (Argentina): Renewal of 3 concessions for container terminals by 2019 • Veracruz (Mexico): Concession of Terminal 2 for port expansion • Manzanillo (Mexico): New port at Laguna Cuyutlan as possible expansion of Manzanillo
Source: Master Plans, National Port Development Plans
18
Project Portfolio in the Port Sector Project location and estimated amount of investment (Mill USD) México
2,240
Brasil Veracruz II Fase I (405 M$) HPH Fase I (TECI) Veracruz II (1.050M$) Caucedo ampliación (270 M$) Contecon Fase III – Mazanillo (750 M$) Kingston KFTL ampliación I (280 M$) APM Fase II - Lázaro Cárdenas (440 M$) Compas Cartagena ampliación (200 M$) Modernización Port of Spain (109 M$) APM Limón-Moín Fase II (650 M$) Puerto Cabello ampliación (520 M$) Corozal Balboa Fase I (1.000 M$)
Projects for containers Projects for grain
Panamá
1,000
Ampliación TCP – Montevideo (210 M$) Terminales BA (532 M$)
435
770 650
Argentina
530
Perú
524
Venezuela
520
Bolivia
Puerto Busch (400 M$) Tecon Santos ampliación (280 M$) TGG Ampliación (90 M$) Terport (35 M$) TCP ampliación (396 M$) República TUP TGSC (158 M$) Porto Itapoá Ampliación (438 M$) Berço 401 (55 M$)
Terminal especializada TCVAL (347 M$) PGE San Antonio Fase I (700 M$)
1,047
Costa Rica
Nueva terminal Manaus (327 M$)
Callao APM Fases IV y V (290 M$) Callao DPWorld (194 M$) Modernización del puerto de Ilo (70 M$)
Chile
Ecuador
Posorja Fase I (525 M$) Puerto Bolívar Fase I (245 M$)
1,441
405
400
Jamaica 280 Dominicana 270 Uruguay 210 Colombia 200
Trinidad y Tobago Paraguay
109 35
Container
Grain
19
Significant investment opportunities in airports New concession
Concession underway
• La Aurora (Guatemala); expected for 2017. Soon will be selected the investment bank. • Johan Pengel in Surinam & Trinidad Tobago ; within two years • Kingston (Jamaica): Concession structured by IFC but there were no bidders
• New Guayaquil Airport (Ecuador): under study. Corporacion America operates the existing airport.
• Santa Lucia (in the Caribbean)
• Cali (Colombia): Current concession to Aerocali (Dragados, AENA, etc.) is expected to end by 2020
• Fortaleza, Salvador, Florianópolis & Porto Alegre (Brasil): process underway for four airports. No specific dates available. In addition the process for Cuiaba airport has been anounced • Asunción (Paraguay): concession underway (bids up until june 2016)
process
is
• Pereira (Colombia): Concession process pending to be defined by Pereira Local Government • Neiva y Armenia (Colombia): Schedule to be defined by ANI (National Agency of Investments)
• Cartagena (Colombia): Current concession to SACSA (local investors & AENA) is expected to end by 2019 • Interairports (Honduras): Concession of airports in San Pedro Sula, La Ceiba, Roatán is expected to end by 2020 • La Habana (Cuba): various groups has already approached to the Cuban government • New processes in Brasil; Conghonas (Sao), Santos du Mont (Rio), Recife, Curitiba, Belén, Vitoria. • Mexico; Querétaro, Puebla and ¿partial concessions for Mexico City new airport? • El Salvador; Comalapa international airport? • Nicaragua: Managua Airport? • Aeropuertos Tier 1 Bahamas?
20
Airport projects under construction or planning process in the Andean Region Airports Map
Investments to be executed Country
Airport
Type
Capacity added
Current State
Investment
Bolivia
Viru Viru
Terminal + Strip + Cargo
5.5 Mpax
Construction
300 M.US$
Barranquilla (BAQ)
Colombia
El Dorado
Terminales + Strip + Platform
25 Mpax
Construction Fase I
2160 M.US$
Bogotá (BOG)
Colombia
El Dorado II
Greenfield
-
Planning
1000 M.US$
Colombia
Barranquilla
Terminal + Platform
4.5 Mpax
Planning
225 M.US$
Colombia
Cartagena
Greenfield
8.5 Mpax
Planning
500 M.US$
Colombia
Cali
Terminal + platform
5.2 Mpax
Construction
80 M.US$
Ecuador
Guayaquil
Greenfield
6 Mpax
Planning
n.d.
Perú
Lima
Terminal + Strip
22Mpax
Planning
1200 M.US$
Perú
Cusco
Greenfield
5 Mpax
Construction
546 M.US$
Cartagena (CTG)
Cali (CLO)
Guayaquil Lima (LIM)
Cusco (CUZ)
Viru Viru (VVI)
21
Airport projects under construction or planning process in Brasil
Airports Map
Investments to be executed
Fortaleza (FOR)
Type
Capacity added
Current State
Investme nt
Terminal + Strip
33 Mpax
Planning
2900 M.US$
Brasil
Florianopolis Terminal + Strip
15 Mpax
Construction
275 M.US$
Brasil
Porto Alegre Terminal + Strip
12 Mpax
Construction
505 M.US$
Brasil
Fortaleza
Terminal + Strip
22.5 Mpax
Waiting concession
297 M.US$
Brasil
Belo Horizonte
Terminal + Strip
12 Mpax
Construction
462 M.US$
Brasil
Salvador
Terminal + Strip
23 Mpax
Waiting concession
409 M.US$
Country
Airport
Brasil
Viracopos
Salvador (SSA) Belo Horizonte (CNF) Viracopos (VCP)
Porto Alegre (POA)
Florianópolis (FLN)
22
Airport projects under construction or planning process in Southern Cone
Airports Map
Investments to be executed
Type
Capacity added
Santiago de Chile
Terminal
14 Mpax
Asunción
Terminal + Platform
2.5 Mpax
Country
Airport
Chile
Paraguay
Current Investment State Construction 580 M.US$
Asunción (ASU)
Planning
150 M.US$
Santiago de Chile (SCL)
23
An investment of near US$140 billion is needed by 2020 to close the broadband infrastructure gap with more advanced economies
359,000 Investment gap by 2020
$143.000
216,000 159,568
▪ CAGR: 9% ▪ Investment per-capita: US$48,50
Inversión histórica Inversión estimada Inversión requerida Historical Estimated Required 2006-2012 segúnas per 2013-2020 (11 investment investment investment comportamiento países LATAM) 2006-2012 historical 2013-2020 histórico 2013-2020
Closing the gap with the EU’s Digital Agenda
• Main goals at 2020: • Fixed-broadband: 75% • Mobile broadband:95% • Required broadband network investments as % of GDP: • Historical ratio:0,48 • Estimated ratio: 0,80 • Gross investments: • Historical : $216 billion • Required: $359 billion
Source: Convergencia Research – AHCIET,(2013); TAS for CAF (2014): IDEAL 2014
24
CAF has a Strategic Vision of regional integration… • Physical integration • Integration and development of borders • Economic and commercial integration • Energy integration • Financial integration • Regulatory and logistical integration • Cultural and social integration • Environmental cooperation 25
Looking forward to 2040:Investment needs in Latin America Infrastructure investment by country (2011-2040)
5000
USD Billion (constant 2010)
4500
Maintenance New Capacity
4000
55% of total
3500
3000 2500
88% of total
2000 1500 1000 500 0 BRA
MEX
COL
55% investment needs in Brazil and México. USD 7,269 Billion Source: Latin America 2040 (CAF, 2013)
ARG
PER
CHI
VEN
DOM
C.RICA
ECU
OTHERS
88% of investment needs within first 7 countries. CAF and IDB + CEPAL carrying regional statistics for LAC. www.infralatam.info 26
A potential scenario for Latin America
5.00 4.50 4.00
% of GDP
3.50
Power Water Telecom Roads Rails Airports Ports
3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00
0.50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
0.00
Source: CAF LATIN AMERICA 2040 (2013)
27
Transport infrastructure and logistics are key in CAF´s agenda for regional development Latin America 2040 Investment needs in infrastructure to sustain growth and development
CAF knowledge generation on infrastructure development and logistics
CAF Regional Development Program in Logistics (since 2014)
IDeAL 2011 Regional challenges to improving logistics performance
IDeAL 2012 High quality infrastructure and logistics are key for internationalization
IDeAL 2013 Strategic ambitions in logistics for Latin American countries
IDeAL 2014 Policies on Publicprivate cooperation for business development
Systemic, Simultaneous and Sustainable intervention in all elements of “National Logistics Systems”
CAF has produced a series of technical reports and continues promoting investment and financing projects in the transport and logistics sector 28
The need for private sector investment and PPPs: Learning from experience
PPPs in Latin America: Learning from experience CAF - Development Bank of Latin America (2015) • Review the experience of PPPs in LAC: -
Regulatory framework Institutional framework Operational framework Business and investment environment Financing facilities Sub-national adjustment factor
• Research five PPPs cases in LAC, well documented • Lessons and challenges
29
Latin American countries with advanced plans for PPP programs
30
Final remarks
• There are important opportunities for investment in infrastructure in Latin America • Joint efforts will be required in areas such as infrastructure and
productive transformation • Australian companies have the expertise and knowledge that would be very useful for Latin America • CAF could be an important instrument to foster collaboration between Australia and Latin America and become a platform for the exchange of knowledge and experiences
31
Thank you…!!! [email protected]
www.caf.com www.infralatam.info www.omu.caf.com http://scioteca.caf.com/handle/123456789/13 32
Latin American Infrastructure Forum 2017 Overview of Infrastructure Developments in Latin America Jorge H. Kogan Melbourne, Australia May 23, 2017
I.
Infrastructure in Latin America: present situation and investment gaps
II.
The strategic agenda
III.
Sector Outlooks and Scenarios
IV.
Knowledge and capacity building
V.
PPPs in Latin America
CAF: An overview Members: 19 countries • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Argentina Barbados Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador Jamaica Mexico Panama Paraguay Peru Portugal Spain Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela
CAF: Portfolio
Ratings: Fitch Ratings: AAJapan Credit Rating Agency: AA Moody´s Investors Service: Aa3 Standard & Poor´s: AA-
Infrastructure is a powerful tool and a critical enabler of sustainable development… • Articulates natural resources with production and consumption centers • Unites the territory, reduce travel times and generate proximity, concentration and economies of scale • Reduces poverty and improves quality of life
• Stimulates economic growth and trade • Connects neighborhoods, cities, regions, nations and continents • Latin America faces a unique opportunity to achieve comprehensive
development in the coming decades. Infrastructure is a pillar for this. • CAF interventions in infrastructure seek to be integral at all stages of the project: – Economic; Social; Environmental Sustainability; Institutional; Knowledge; Regional integration, Finance
Latin America: significant gaps in the quality of Infrastructure Quality of overall infrastructure index 1-7
6
Important challenges in infrastructure The present situation varies significantly across sectors: • Energy: electricity and telecommunications services are acceptable • Transport: ports and airports need additional development • Greater challenges are in water and sewerage, roads, urban transport and railways • Taking into account the positive prospects for the region and population aspirations, these challenges are becoming urgent
7
Infrastructure investment in Latin America is less than 3% of GDP Transport, Telecom, Electricity, Gas, Water Public and Private Investment
5.00 4.50
Priv.
Regional Average 2.9% of GDP (1.9% Pub + 1.0 % Priv)
4.00
Pub.
% of GDP
3.50 3.00 2.50
2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 ARG
BOL
BRA
CHI
COL
Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador and Peru invest more than the average. More recently Honduras and Panama up; Brazil down
Source: IDeAL 2013 (CAF, 2013); 11 countries analized with data available
ECU
GUA
MEX
PAR
ER
URU
Private sector investment participation grew in countries like Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay due to PPPs, new legal and institutional frameworks 8
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Infrastructure investment as % of GDP
Infrastructure: LAC currently invests less than in the 80s
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Public inv. Private inv. Total inv.
Source: Calderón & Servén (2010); CAF (2011)
9
Significant Investment is required to bridge the gap - To overcome the deficit in infrastructure and keep up with growth and development, the region needs to invest annually between 5% and 6% of GDP. This does not take into account maintenance expenditures - The annual requirements are around US$200,000 250,000 million - Demands important efforts by the public and private sectors with the support of IFIs
10
Public and private investment by sector
11
With the end of the commodities supercycle...
12
…the Latin American economies have suffered significant reductions in growth …and recessions in 2015 and 2016
13
Demand for services has decelerated… Electricity
Air transport
Annual growth of passengers by regional airlines
Telecommunications
Annual growth of penetration of mobile broadband in Latin America
Maritime transport flat in the South
Variation of container movements in the10 main ports of each sub-region. In millons of TEU
14
Investment in infrastructure in 2016 drop to 2008 levels… Total Investment, all sector, public and private, as a % of GDP and in Millon USD
Historical Data
Presunción
15
Latin America has significant growth opportunities that will require adequate infrastructure • Domestic markets, even when considered on a regional basis , are not big enough to enable sustainable growth • Latin America will need to build new positions in global markets • Several potential Growth Engines, that will require adequate Infrastructure • Investment in infrastructure , by itself, will create opportunities for employment and enterprise development
Continue building on Agriculture and move into processed foods
Grow in Life Sciences Hydrocarbons and Mining Specialized Manufacturing Knowledge-Intensive Services
Tourism Address Infrastructure Gaps 16
The strategic agenda • Significantly increase investment in infrastructure • Within the context of a sustainable development paradigm • Strengthen institutions – capacity building, planning, coordination, more and better projects • Adequately articulate the sources of funding • i.e. Effective engagement between public and private sectors • Promote the development of infrastructure-related companies • Promote the exchange of knowledge and best practices between governments, regions and cities • i.e. Robust information for decision making process 17
There will be new investment opportunities in the coming years Port Terminals Container Port terminal concessions underway in Latin America
New concessions coming for Container Port terminals in Latin America • Iquique (Chile): Expansion of terminal 1 or construction of a new terminal
• Manta (Ecuador): Modernization of existing port
• Callao (Peru): Construction of new container terminal at north-west outer area (long term, various phases)
• Ilo (Peru): Expansion and modernization of existing port
• Valparaíso/San Antonio (Chile): Construction and operation of new outer port terminal (long term, various phases)
• Chimbote (Peru): DFBOT for a container terminal
• Suape (Brasil): New container terminal
• Salaverry (Peru): Modernization of existing multi-purpose port • Corozal (Panama): Greenfield project, container terminal at the pacific side of Panama canal.
• Santos (Brasil): Modernization and integration of various container terminals • Manaus (Brasil): New container terminal • Buenos Aires (Argentina): Renewal of 3 concessions for container terminals by 2019 • Veracruz (Mexico): Concession of Terminal 2 for port expansion • Manzanillo (Mexico): New port at Laguna Cuyutlan as possible expansion of Manzanillo
Source: Master Plans, National Port Development Plans
18
Project Portfolio in the Port Sector Project location and estimated amount of investment (Mill USD) México
2,240
Brasil Veracruz II Fase I (405 M$) HPH Fase I (TECI) Veracruz II (1.050M$) Caucedo ampliación (270 M$) Contecon Fase III – Mazanillo (750 M$) Kingston KFTL ampliación I (280 M$) APM Fase II - Lázaro Cárdenas (440 M$) Compas Cartagena ampliación (200 M$) Modernización Port of Spain (109 M$) APM Limón-Moín Fase II (650 M$) Puerto Cabello ampliación (520 M$) Corozal Balboa Fase I (1.000 M$)
Projects for containers Projects for grain
Panamá
1,000
Ampliación TCP – Montevideo (210 M$) Terminales BA (532 M$)
435
770 650
Argentina
530
Perú
524
Venezuela
520
Bolivia
Puerto Busch (400 M$) Tecon Santos ampliación (280 M$) TGG Ampliación (90 M$) Terport (35 M$) TCP ampliación (396 M$) República TUP TGSC (158 M$) Porto Itapoá Ampliación (438 M$) Berço 401 (55 M$)
Terminal especializada TCVAL (347 M$) PGE San Antonio Fase I (700 M$)
1,047
Costa Rica
Nueva terminal Manaus (327 M$)
Callao APM Fases IV y V (290 M$) Callao DPWorld (194 M$) Modernización del puerto de Ilo (70 M$)
Chile
Ecuador
Posorja Fase I (525 M$) Puerto Bolívar Fase I (245 M$)
1,441
405
400
Jamaica 280 Dominicana 270 Uruguay 210 Colombia 200
Trinidad y Tobago Paraguay
109 35
Container
Grain
19
Significant investment opportunities in airports New concession
Concession underway
• La Aurora (Guatemala); expected for 2017. Soon will be selected the investment bank. • Johan Pengel in Surinam & Trinidad Tobago ; within two years • Kingston (Jamaica): Concession structured by IFC but there were no bidders
• New Guayaquil Airport (Ecuador): under study. Corporacion America operates the existing airport.
• Santa Lucia (in the Caribbean)
• Cali (Colombia): Current concession to Aerocali (Dragados, AENA, etc.) is expected to end by 2020
• Fortaleza, Salvador, Florianópolis & Porto Alegre (Brasil): process underway for four airports. No specific dates available. In addition the process for Cuiaba airport has been anounced • Asunción (Paraguay): concession underway (bids up until june 2016)
process
is
• Pereira (Colombia): Concession process pending to be defined by Pereira Local Government • Neiva y Armenia (Colombia): Schedule to be defined by ANI (National Agency of Investments)
• Cartagena (Colombia): Current concession to SACSA (local investors & AENA) is expected to end by 2019 • Interairports (Honduras): Concession of airports in San Pedro Sula, La Ceiba, Roatán is expected to end by 2020 • La Habana (Cuba): various groups has already approached to the Cuban government • New processes in Brasil; Conghonas (Sao), Santos du Mont (Rio), Recife, Curitiba, Belén, Vitoria. • Mexico; Querétaro, Puebla and ¿partial concessions for Mexico City new airport? • El Salvador; Comalapa international airport? • Nicaragua: Managua Airport? • Aeropuertos Tier 1 Bahamas?
20
Airport projects under construction or planning process in the Andean Region Airports Map
Investments to be executed Country
Airport
Type
Capacity added
Current State
Investment
Bolivia
Viru Viru
Terminal + Strip + Cargo
5.5 Mpax
Construction
300 M.US$
Barranquilla (BAQ)
Colombia
El Dorado
Terminales + Strip + Platform
25 Mpax
Construction Fase I
2160 M.US$
Bogotá (BOG)
Colombia
El Dorado II
Greenfield
-
Planning
1000 M.US$
Colombia
Barranquilla
Terminal + Platform
4.5 Mpax
Planning
225 M.US$
Colombia
Cartagena
Greenfield
8.5 Mpax
Planning
500 M.US$
Colombia
Cali
Terminal + platform
5.2 Mpax
Construction
80 M.US$
Ecuador
Guayaquil
Greenfield
6 Mpax
Planning
n.d.
Perú
Lima
Terminal + Strip
22Mpax
Planning
1200 M.US$
Perú
Cusco
Greenfield
5 Mpax
Construction
546 M.US$
Cartagena (CTG)
Cali (CLO)
Guayaquil Lima (LIM)
Cusco (CUZ)
Viru Viru (VVI)
21
Airport projects under construction or planning process in Brasil
Airports Map
Investments to be executed
Fortaleza (FOR)
Type
Capacity added
Current State
Investme nt
Terminal + Strip
33 Mpax
Planning
2900 M.US$
Brasil
Florianopolis Terminal + Strip
15 Mpax
Construction
275 M.US$
Brasil
Porto Alegre Terminal + Strip
12 Mpax
Construction
505 M.US$
Brasil
Fortaleza
Terminal + Strip
22.5 Mpax
Waiting concession
297 M.US$
Brasil
Belo Horizonte
Terminal + Strip
12 Mpax
Construction
462 M.US$
Brasil
Salvador
Terminal + Strip
23 Mpax
Waiting concession
409 M.US$
Country
Airport
Brasil
Viracopos
Salvador (SSA) Belo Horizonte (CNF) Viracopos (VCP)
Porto Alegre (POA)
Florianópolis (FLN)
22
Airport projects under construction or planning process in Southern Cone
Airports Map
Investments to be executed
Type
Capacity added
Santiago de Chile
Terminal
14 Mpax
Asunción
Terminal + Platform
2.5 Mpax
Country
Airport
Chile
Paraguay
Current Investment State Construction 580 M.US$
Asunción (ASU)
Planning
150 M.US$
Santiago de Chile (SCL)
23
An investment of near US$140 billion is needed by 2020 to close the broadband infrastructure gap with more advanced economies
359,000 Investment gap by 2020
$143.000
216,000 159,568
▪ CAGR: 9% ▪ Investment per-capita: US$48,50
Inversión histórica Inversión estimada Inversión requerida Historical Estimated Required 2006-2012 segúnas per 2013-2020 (11 investment investment investment comportamiento países LATAM) 2006-2012 historical 2013-2020 histórico 2013-2020
Closing the gap with the EU’s Digital Agenda
• Main goals at 2020: • Fixed-broadband: 75% • Mobile broadband:95% • Required broadband network investments as % of GDP: • Historical ratio:0,48 • Estimated ratio: 0,80 • Gross investments: • Historical : $216 billion • Required: $359 billion
Source: Convergencia Research – AHCIET,(2013); TAS for CAF (2014): IDEAL 2014
24
CAF has a Strategic Vision of regional integration… • Physical integration • Integration and development of borders • Economic and commercial integration • Energy integration • Financial integration • Regulatory and logistical integration • Cultural and social integration • Environmental cooperation 25
Looking forward to 2040:Investment needs in Latin America Infrastructure investment by country (2011-2040)
5000
USD Billion (constant 2010)
4500
Maintenance New Capacity
4000
55% of total
3500
3000 2500
88% of total
2000 1500 1000 500 0 BRA
MEX
COL
55% investment needs in Brazil and México. USD 7,269 Billion Source: Latin America 2040 (CAF, 2013)
ARG
PER
CHI
VEN
DOM
C.RICA
ECU
OTHERS
88% of investment needs within first 7 countries. CAF and IDB + CEPAL carrying regional statistics for LAC. www.infralatam.info 26
A potential scenario for Latin America
5.00 4.50 4.00
% of GDP
3.50
Power Water Telecom Roads Rails Airports Ports
3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00
0.50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
0.00
Source: CAF LATIN AMERICA 2040 (2013)
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Transport infrastructure and logistics are key in CAF´s agenda for regional development Latin America 2040 Investment needs in infrastructure to sustain growth and development
CAF knowledge generation on infrastructure development and logistics
CAF Regional Development Program in Logistics (since 2014)
IDeAL 2011 Regional challenges to improving logistics performance
IDeAL 2012 High quality infrastructure and logistics are key for internationalization
IDeAL 2013 Strategic ambitions in logistics for Latin American countries
IDeAL 2014 Policies on Publicprivate cooperation for business development
Systemic, Simultaneous and Sustainable intervention in all elements of “National Logistics Systems”
CAF has produced a series of technical reports and continues promoting investment and financing projects in the transport and logistics sector 28
The need for private sector investment and PPPs: Learning from experience
PPPs in Latin America: Learning from experience CAF - Development Bank of Latin America (2015) • Review the experience of PPPs in LAC: -
Regulatory framework Institutional framework Operational framework Business and investment environment Financing facilities Sub-national adjustment factor
• Research five PPPs cases in LAC, well documented • Lessons and challenges
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Latin American countries with advanced plans for PPP programs
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Final remarks
• There are important opportunities for investment in infrastructure in Latin America • Joint efforts will be required in areas such as infrastructure and
productive transformation • Australian companies have the expertise and knowledge that would be very useful for Latin America • CAF could be an important instrument to foster collaboration between Australia and Latin America and become a platform for the exchange of knowledge and experiences
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Thank you…!!! [email protected]
www.caf.com www.infralatam.info www.omu.caf.com http://scioteca.caf.com/handle/123456789/13 32
