Innovation and Clean Energy: Sustainable Opportunities and Immediate Challenges Walter V. Cicha, Ph.D. Technical Business Analyst, CISTI
[email protected] “Problems cannot be solved at the same level of awareness that created them.”
– Albert Einstein
"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." - Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)
October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
“I find out what the world needs, then I proceed to invent.” - Thomas A. Edison (1847–1931)
1093 patents
October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
The Plan…
The Global Clean Energy Innovation Imperative Canada: A Special Case The Role of Clean Technology Case Studies The Distributed Storage-Generation Grid (2050)
October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
The Energy Innovation Imperative Challenge of the Century: Securing affordable and clean primary energy
Tension between diverse aims for energy strategy – Economic – Environmental – National and international security
No “silver bullet” – Innovative and efficient multifaceted energy portfolio necessary
High technology investment costs and long turnover times – Value of global energy supply: $12 trillion – Lifetime: 30-40 years October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Source: J. P. Holdren, Innovations, MIT Press, Spring 2006
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
World Energy Consumption
Clean tech contributions increased 4-fold during past three decades, but account for only 4 ppt of global energy October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Source: MRS Bulletin, April 2008
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Powering Canada (2006) Energy Sources Biomass 6.0% Nuclear 7.0%
Hydro 11.0%
Electricity Sources Solar, Wind, Tidal, Geothermal 0.1%
Other Solar, Wind and renewables Tidal Natural gas 1.3% 0.4% 6.7% Nuclear 15.6%
Coal and Oil 43.0%
Hydro 59.0%
Coal and Oil 17.0%
> 12 % of world’s hydropower Natural gas 33.0% October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
76 % hydrocarbons Source: Natural Resources Canada
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Consumption Increase 2002 to 2007, By Region
% Consumption Increase 2002 to 2007
80 70
China World Canada U.S.
60 50 40
Global Fraction (2007, %)
Primary Oil U.S. 21.3 23.9 China 16.8 9.3 Canada 2.9 2.6
30 20 10 0
Primary Energy
Oil
hydrocarbon and hydro October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Adapted from BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2008)
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
The Oil Roulette
? CO2
July 14, 2008 = $145 per barrel 28 % annual increase (6 years) - 46 %
October 10, 2008 = $78 pb 17 % annual increase (6 years)
Exxon-Mobil record 2007 profits* $40.6 billion October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
*Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2007/02/01/AR2007020100714.html
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Athabasca Tar Sands (140,000 km2 = NY State) Potential: 1.7 – 2.5 trillion barrels of synthetic crude Currently ~ 2 M barrels per day, primarily for export 2 tons oil sands = 42 gallons (1 brl) crude = 1200 ft3 natural gas required = 80 kg greenhouse gas released “Mining oil” releases more CO2 than conventional drilling 4 % of Canada’s total emissions > 10 % of emissions by 2015 Requires vast amounts of CH4 + H2O CO2 sequestration: a seeming necessity October 2006 - Sierra Club Canada
Growing international investment, est. at $14 billion in 2006 2004-07: $4.3 billion in royalties to Alberta government ($1200/resident)! October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Tar_Sands and www.energy.gov.ab.ca/OurBusiness/oilsands.asp
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
How Energy Efficient is Canada? Primary Energy Consumption per GDP (1980-2004) “North America does not have such high energy costs as Europe and Japan, so the incentive to improve efficiency is not as strong.” – Anonymous
Essential need: Increase efficiency
energy utility stakeholder
Goal: Reduce carbon footprint of energy consumption October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Source: MRS Bulletin (April 2008)
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Rick Smalley’s Top 10 Global Concerns “Energy… a $3 trillion per year enterprise and by far the biggest endeavor of humankind… is the single most important challenge facing us today.”
1. Energy
- Rick Smalley (2005)
2. Water 3. Food
1.
Increasing energy demand (population/industrialization)
4. Environment
2.
Strained fossil fuel supplies (“peak oil” looming)
5. Poverty
3.
Climate change
6. Terrorism and war
= Socioeconomic disturbances
7. Disease 8. Education 9. Democracy 10. Population
Improved, integrated and lower-cost Systematic technology and policy innovation
October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Adapted from R. E. Smalley, MRS Bulletin, Vol. 30, pgs. 412-417 (June, 2005)
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Challenge of the Century 50 Terawatts “The North American [power] grid is largely based on technology created and developed more than a century ago.” – Clean Edge
15 TW (Today) 1. Primary Source – Production 2. Transmission 3. Storage
50 TW (2050) Solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, nuclear, biomass, “clean” coal, natural gas, oil
Smart grid, high I/low R wires (nanowires, superconductors), hydrogen
Batteries, fuel cells, supercapacitors
Energy (power) as electricity, not as mass Advanced “nanostructured” materials October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
“The world needs to invest $45 trillion in energy in coming decades, build some 1,400 nuclear power plants and vastly expand wind power in order to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.” – The IEA (June 6, 2008)
October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
The Cost Conundrum The Six Cs: “Cost, capital, competition, China, consumers and climate.” – Clean Edge
Clean Tech: > 10 % of total VC investment in the U.S. GE: $6 billion for 3.6 GW new wind capacity by 2010 BC: 600 MW wind by 2012 Hydro
October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Sources: N. Lewis, MRS Bulletin, pg. 808 (October 2007); Clean Edge
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Nuclear Power?
“Nuclear Power is the Only Green Solution” “I write as an independent scientist and environmentalist, not as a representative of any government department, or industry, or NGO… Sometime in the coming century…we will look back and see what a vast disservice our politicians had done [globally] by neglecting the benefits of the atom.”
- James Lovelock (July 2005)
“No nuclear power.”
James Lovelock at 88
Nuclear energy’s contribution: World = 6 % Canada = 7 % U.S.A. = 9 % World’s leading uranium producer: Canada
– The BC Energy Plan October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/16956300/the_prophet_of_climate_change_james_lovelock
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Global Clean Technology Leaders in 2006
(Renewable Energy added in 2006)
5*6 point scale Germany = 25 U.S. = 20 China = 13 Spain = 7 Japan = 5 October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Canada absent from top 5 list! ~ $200 billion predicted growth for Clean Tech globally over next decade! Source: Renewables 2007 Global Status Report
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Two Canadian National Energy Programs
Bioproducts National Program – In place – Iogen, Lignol, and other industrial successes
Hydrogen and Fuel Cell National Program – Canada leads world in per capita FC investment – Proposed for 2009
October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
A Sustainable Energy Cycle academic – government – industrial
Industrial sector Private investor sector Public sector (provincial federal government)
$$$
$$
Development and optimization of advanced materials and processes for sustainable energy infrastructure (solar, biomass, H2, etc.)
“Promoting renewable sources makes sense strictly on economic grounds…” – D. M. Kammen (2006)
Economic benefits Education Quality employment World-class workforce
(short and long term)
Curtail global warming Conserve resources Improve lifestyle PROFITS FROM SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
B.C. Transit Fuel Cell Electric Bus Project 20 PEM fuel cell / electric hybrid buses in regular operation at Whistler by Dec. ‘09 20 years of operation planned $89 million expenditure 6th generation fuel cell bus fleet – 60 kg H2, 150kW FC/80kW EL Net 60 % GHG emission reduction vs. diesel buses Ballard, New Flyer, Siemens, ISE, Dynetek, Cobasys, Sacré-Davey, HTEC, Hydrogenics, BC Government, Government of Canada October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Sources: Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Canada; The Canadian Press (June 26, 2008)
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
The Tesla Roadster Future of Personal Transportation?
W. Cicha
Clean Tech Summit, Palm Springs, CA (February 2008)
US$109,000 0-100 km/h in 4.0 s, 300 km range 6800 Li-batteries (450 kg) October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
US$60,000 sedan models planned Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Waste Hydrogen Success Story
650,000 tons of waste H2 generated annually by Canadian chemical industry
• 150 kW PEMFC powered carwash • Fuel: waste H2 from N. Vancouver NaClO3 plant • Excess capacity made available to BC Hydro • In operation 24/7 since 2006 October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Source: http://www.hydrogenhighway.ca/code/navigate.asp?Id=241#
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Energy from Waste
Hydrogen, electricity, heat production – Fuel: biogas from municipal solid waste – Low cost, high efficiency
“Leveraged technology” – Commercially available 300 kW molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC) – Proprietary post-fuel cell gas processor
October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
SRI Explorer, Fuel Cells (June 2008)
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
MIT’s Answer to Photosynthesis > 90 % of 40 billion kg H2 produced from hydrocarbons “This is probably the most important single discovery of the century.” D. Coveney, MIT
- Karsten Meyer, F. Alexander University, Germany
“sunlight”
H2Oaq
H2 + 0.5 O2
Co(NO3)2/K3(PO4)aq
Dan Nocera splitting water
Self-regenerating
“2Co:P:K”
Low cost renewable hydrogen, environmentally benign huge potential
(~$1 per oz.) October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/21155; C&EN, August 4, 2008
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Transmission: NANOWIRES (e.g. CNTs) Generation: CLEAN TECH essential!
QUANTUM WIRES Storage: diversified devices with higher efficiency required: NANOMATERIALS
October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Adapted from: http://www.rice.edu/energy/publications/docs/Smalley_Vision_chart_3-15-07.pdf
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Call for Papers! Contact:
[email protected] (October 31 deadline)
May 31 – June 3, 2009 Vancouver Convention Centre
October 28, 2008 IIT Innovation Forum
Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI
Thank You… Professor Emeritus Felix Aubke (UBC) Dr. Leo Manzer (Dupont and Catalytic Insights) Professor Hank Foley (Penn State) Dr. Eric Lang (E3-Design) Professor Philip Kosky (Union College and GE Emeritus) Dr. John Leman (GE Global Research) Dr. Larry Lewis (GE Global Research) Professor Peter Eklund (Penn State) Bruce Sampson (former BC Hydro VP of Sustainability) Dr. Ged McLean (Angstrom Power) Michael Alldritt (NRC-IRAP) Professor Frank Ko (UBC) Alan Guest (NRC-IRAP) Nancy Glass (NRC-CISTI) David Minns (NRC-IFCI) Don Furseth (Acorn Solutions) Javis Lui (H2 & Fuel Cells Canada) Constantin Pitis (BC Hydro Power Smart) Jeff Grant (Ballard Power Systems) Ryan Baker (NRC-IFCI) …plus many other mentors and co-workers over the years
1984
2008
Further suggested reading: Richard Smalley, Wade Adams, Nathan October 28, 2008 Lewis, James Kunstler, James Lovelock… Walter Cicha – NRC CISTI IIT Innovation Forum