Intouch Holdings Buy (16E TP Bt65.80)
Earnings Review
Close Bt55.25
ICT
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
February 18, 2016
Strong showing in 4Q15 Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
5.033
5.435
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐13.8%
‐18.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
INTU.BK/INTUCH TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,206.42
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
177.00/4,972.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
47.20/47.19
52 week High / Low (Bt)
82.50/44.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
11,164.00
NVDR (%)
18.16
Estimated free float (%)
58.36
Beta
1.11
URL
www.intouchcompany.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
Attractive yield; BUY rating maintained INTUCH showed decent earnings growth in 2015 thanks to the strong performance of both ADVANC and THCOM. Although the near‐term earnings growth is less exciting given the more competitive landscape in the cellular market, its yield remains attractive. Hence, we maintain a BUY rating with the new target price of Bt65.80. Strong earnings in 4Q15 INTUCH posted a net profit of Bt4.4bn (EPS: Bt1.38) in 4Q15, increasing 21%YoY and 27%QoQ. Stripping out the Fx impact and the loss on the provision for ITV, its core profit grew by 20%YoY. This was led by a strong profit contribution from both its core investments, i.e., ADVANC and THCOM. Improvement in core investments drove 2015E growth INTUCH’s 2015 NP grew 9%YoY to Bt16bn (EPS: Bt5.01). Stripping out extra items as mentioned earlier, its core earnings edged up 13%YoY. This was mainly driven by a 9% increase in shared profit from associates, led by ADVANC. ADVANC’s 2015 NP jumped 9%YoY on service revenue growth and significantly lower regulatory costs. THCOM also showed a 33% increase in NP in 2015 thanks to the launch of Thaicom7 and strong growth from LTC operations. Its investment in venture capital and the new JV, High Shopping, contributed a loss. Interim DPS of Bt2.47; XD on 4 April Owing to the 2015 dividend payment of ADVANC and THCOM, INTUCH will realize total dividend income of Bt8.1bn in 1Q16. Thus, INTUCH passed through this income by announcing an interim DPS of Bt2.47 for the 1Q16E operation, representing a yield of 4.5% for the period. The XD sign will be posted on 4 April and the dividend will be paid on 28 April. Earnings to cool down in 2016 INTUCH guided that its revenue will grow 3‐5%YoY in 2016 driven by Thaicom8, which is expected to be launched in mid‐2016. This is in line with the improvement in THCOM’s operation given a full‐year contribution from Thaicom7 and the launch of Thaicom8. INTUCH is also reserving Bt200mn to invest in venture capital. Nevertheless, its 2016E earnings are likely to slide 16%YoY given the decline in ADVANC’s results in response to intensified competition in the cellular market. Note that our current model has not factored in its new JV – High Shopping. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm EPS (Bt) Norm EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 9,646 14,568 4.54 4.78 3.0% 4.25 10.11 2013 17.06 68.13 7.67 5.4% 46.3% 4.7%
2014 12,194 14,761 4.60 4.74 ‐0.9% 4.39 10.68 2014 17.11 54.77 7.38 5.6% 44.3% 9.6%
2015 12,665 16,078 5.01 5.34 12.8% 4.63 11.02 2015 10.37 31.62 4.72 8.90% 46.2% 10.5%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2016E 13,500 13,932 4.34 4.48 ‐16.2% 4.49 9.35 2016E 12.72 42.68 5.91 8.12% 42.7% 30.0%
2017E 13,550 14,162 4.42 4.55 1.6% 4.75 9.01 2017E 12.51 43.00 6.13 8.6% 48.1% 16.7%
Figure 1: Earnings review Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. Revenue Gross Profit EBITDA Share of profit from JV Share of profit from associates Net profit (loss) Extra items Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt to equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
4Q14 3,085 1,235 17,727 42 3,661 3,648 (153) 3,679 1.14 40.0% 574.7% 118.3% 1.00 5.45 0.62 10.68 64.9%
3Q15 3,208 1,323 16,442 (19) 3,510 3,471 (562) 3,470 1.08 41.2% 46.5% 108.2% 0.91 9.87 0.70 9.65 65.4%
4Q15 3,349 1,383 17,727 65 4,350 4,421 (149) 4,419 1.38 41.3% 529.3% 132.0% 0.98 13.62 0.64 11.02 68.6%
%QoQ 4.4% 4.5% 7.8% ‐445.6% 23.9% 27.4% ‐73.4% 27.4% 27.4% 0.1% 482.8% 23.8%
14.3%
%YoY 8.6% 12.0% 0.0% 55.4% 18.8% 21.2% ‐2.7% 20.1% 21.2% 1.2% ‐45.3% 13.7%
2014 12,194 4,876 4,670 154 14,522 14,761 (426) 15,187 4.60 40.0% 38.3% 121.1% 1.00 5.32 0.62 3.2% 10.68 60.9%
2015 12,665 5,124 5,389 169 15,833 16,078 (1,054) 17,132 5.01 40.5% 42.6% 126.9% 0.98 10.19 0.64 11.02 64.1%
%YoY 3.9% 5.1% 15.4% 9.5% 9.0% 8.9% 147.4% 12.8% 8.9% 0.5% 4.3% 5.9%
3.2%
Source: Company data and KT Zmico Research Figure 2: INTUCH’s break‐up value
ADVANC THCOM Unconsolidated net cash Total break‐up value Total break‐up value per share (Bt) Discount for holding company INTUCH's target price (Bt)
Total Shares (mn) 2,973 1,096
Fair Value (Bt) 188.00 44.10
Equity Value (Bt) 558,942 48,334
INTUCH's EV of INTUCH's holding holding 40.45% 226,092 41.14% 19,885 1,958 247,935 77.32 15% 65.73
Source: Bloomberg and KT Zmico Research Figure 3: PER and share price discount to NAV
INTUCH's discount to NAV
PER (x)
25.0
0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% +1.0SD = 16.6x ‐15.0% +2.0SD = 23.8x
20.0
15.0 Avearge= 13.0x 10.0
‐1.0SD = 9.4x ‐2.0SD = 5.8x
‐ 1/2/2008
+1SD=‐14.6%
‐20.0% ‐25.0% ‐30.0% ‐35.0% ‐40.0%
‐1SD=‐23.0% ‐3SD=‐31.5%
Ja n ‐1 0 Ju l‐1 0 Ja n ‐1 1 Ju l‐1 1 Ja n ‐1 2 Ju l‐1 2 Ja n ‐1 3 Ju l‐1 3 Ja n ‐1 4 Ju l‐1 4 Ja n ‐1 5 Ju l‐1 5 Ja n ‐1 6
5.0
+2SD=‐10.3%
1/2/2010
1/2/2012
1/2/2014
1/2/2016
Source: Bloomberg and KT Zmico Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.