InVision (CDAX, Software/IT) Value Indicators:
Buy EUR
EUR
DCF:
100.18
Price
EUR 40.72
Upside
145.6 %
EUR m
Market cap: No. of shares (m): EV: Freefloat MC: Ø Trad. Vol. (30d):
Description:
Bloomberg: Reuters: ISIN:
100.00 Market Snapshot:
Share data: IVX GR IVXG DE0005859698
Shareholders: Freefloat InVision Holding GmbH Peter Bollenbeck Armand Zohari Fidelity
91.0 2.2 91.4 25.9 23.99 th
28.5 % 21.9 % 17.0 % 17.0 % 4.3 %
InVision is a leading supplier of software for WFM and for online training
Risk Profile (WRe):
2016e
Beta: Price / Book: Equity Ratio: Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA: Net Debt / EBITDA:
1.3 7.6 x 68 % 0.1 x 0.1 x
Earnings doubled Stated Figures Q2/2016: in Mio. EUR
Q2/16e
Q2/15
yoy
6M/16
6M/16e
6M/15
yoy
3,2
3,3
3,1
3,1%
6,3
6,4
6,0
4,8%
1,2 39,3%
1,1 33,3%
0,4 13,4%
202,8%
2,0 32,2%
1,9 29,3%
0,9 15,3%
121,3%
Umsatz EBIT Marge
Comment on Figures:
Q2/16
InVision AG reported business figures for Q2 2016 on July 28 which slightly exceeded the high expectations (WRe). However, the figures included a special effect of nearly EUR 0.3m (“insurance payment”). Adjusted for this effect, H1 EBIT nearly doubled yoy. The quarterly momentum was accordingly higher.
InVision’s earnings growth was strong, as expected. The combination of growing cloud revenues and fixed costs allow earnings to benefit strongly from economies of scale. Top-line momentum is still characterised by a planned decrease in the project business which saw sales decline by 33% from EUR 0.9m (H1/15) to EUR 0.6m (H1/16). At this stage, the revenue share of the project business has hardly any relevance for revenues. Core of the business development were revenues from subscriptions which increased by 12% to EUR 5.6m in H1. Despite this strong figure, it has to be mentioned that growth in subscription revenues is currently less dynamic than so far anticipated, especially in the long-term estimates (WRe). In the mid term, investments in personnel increase are planned. This will be mainly implemented in the areas of marketing, sales and customer success management as InVision’s cloud solutions are automated to such an extent that now, customer acquisition provides high marginal returns. Furthermore, the statistical experience of the last years reliably shows that marketing expenditure with sufficiently high efficiency leads to higher user figures. Based on the new forecasts, anticipating slightly lower earnings in the coming years but higher numbers in the long term, the PT is kept unchanged at EUR 100. The rating for the share remains Buy. The share’s low earnings multiple of 18x (2017e), despite its extremely high earnings momentum, remains striking.
Changes in Estimates: FY End: 31.12. in EUR m
Comment on Changes:
2016e (old)
+/-
2017e (old)
+/-
2018e (old)
+/-
13.6 4.5 1.88 0.00
-4.6 % -10.4 % -11.7 % 0.0 %
16.4 7.2 2.97 0.00
-5.5 % -21.7 % -22.2 % 0.0 %
19.0 9.5 3.90 0.00
-1.1 % -14.6 % -15.4 % 0.0 %
Sales EBIT EPS DPS
FY End: 31.12. in EUR m
Rel. Performance vs CDAX: 1 month:
-3.4 %
6 months:
-12.6 %
Year to date:
-18.5 %
Trailing 12 months:
-3.6 %
Company events: 10.11.16
Q3
CAGR (15-18e)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
13.2 6.8 % 97.4 % 1.2 8.8 % 0.8 6.2 % 0.6
13.6 2.5 % 97.6 % 2.1 15.2 % 1.8 12.9 % 1.6
13.4 -1.1 % 98.2 % 4.5 33.6 % 4.1 30.8 % 4.2
12.7 -5.2 % 97.1 % 3.2 25.2 % 2.7 21.1 % 2.1
13.0 2.3 % 97.0 % 4.4 33.6 % 4.1 31.3 % 3.7
15.5 19.2 % 97.5 % 6.0 38.6 % 5.6 36.3 % 5.2
18.8 21.3 % 97.5 % 8.5 45.3 % 8.1 43.0 % 7.4
0.29 0.31 0.00 n.a. 0.34 3.1 %
0.71 0.79 0.00 n.a. 1.36 7.0 %
1.90 1.94 1.00 2.2 % -1.48 -3.3 %
0.97 0.98 0.00 n.a. -0.02 0.0 %
1.66 1.66 0.00 n.a. 0.64 1.6 %
2.31 2.31 0.00 n.a. 1.05 2.6 %
3.30 3.30 0.00 n.a. 2.05 5.0 %
2.0 x 22.9 x 32.7 x 46.0 x 43.1 x 2.9 %
2.8 x 18.4 x 21.6 x 27.5 x 24.7 x 5.3 %
7.3 x 21.9 x 23.9 x 23.6 x 23.1 x -1.7 %
8.2 x 32.6 x 39.0 x 47.9 x 47.4 x 0.3 %
7.0 x 20.9 x 22.5 x 24.5 x 24.5 x 1.6 %
5.7 x 14.9 x 15.8 x 17.6 x 17.6 x 3.2 %
4.5 x 9.9 x 10.4 x 12.3 x 12.3 x 6.0 %
-2.5 -4.6 -0.4 1.8 51.2 % n.a. 97.9 % 23.4 % 2016 revenues of at least EUR 12m, EBIT EUR 3.5m - 4m
0.4 32.4 %
-1.9 36.9 %
-6.5 44.2 %
Sales Change Sales yoy Gross profit margin EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Net income
13.9 %
EPS EPS adj. DPS Dividend Yield FCFPS FCF / Market cap
50.4 % 49.9 % -
EV / Sales EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT P/E P / E adj. FCF Yield Potential Net Debt ROCE (NOPAT) Guidance:
Growth in subscription revenues in 2016 was slightly less dynamic than initially expected. Thus, revenue forecasts for 2016 and beyond are reduced. Higher investments in marketing should lead to higher revenues (especially in the long term). However, costs for these measures will become apparent prior to this. The resulting burdening effect is low as our old forecasts had already anticipated a significant increase in the cost base.
38.6 % 44.6 % 51.3 %
Analyst
F el i x El l ma n n
[email protected] m +49 40 309537-120
COMMENT
Published 29.07.2016 08:15
1
InVision Sales development
Cloud Computing
EBIT development
in EUR m
in USD
in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
Company Background InVision supplies call centre employees with workforce management software and e-learning solutions Since 2011 InVision has been providing new cloud-based software products (software as a service, SaaS, cloud) which represent an increasingly important source of earnings for the company
Competitive Quality InVision has many years of experience in the call centre and WFM field Cloud-based products were further developed in 2011, making InVision a first mover in the field of cloud-based WFM solutions. This was also the case for the firm's second product range, cloud-based training The products in the field of SaaS possesses a very modern software architecture and structure (decentralised approach) Significant market entry barriers posed are development costs (ca. EUR 30m), acquired customer base and technological lead (first mover) The SaaS model is mainly of interest for the huge market of smaller users.
EBT development
Sales by segments
Net income development
in EUR m
2016e; in %
in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 29.07.2016
2
InVision DCF model Detailed forecast period
Transitional period
Term. Value
Figures in EUR m
2016e
2017e
2018e
2019e
2020e
2021e
2022e
2023e
2024e
2025e
2026e
2027e
2028e
Sales Sales change
13.0 2.3 %
15.5 19.2 %
18.8 21.3 %
22.2 18.0 %
25.7 16.0 %
29.6 15.0 %
33.4 13.0 %
37.5 12.0 %
41.2 10.0 %
44.5 8.0 %
46.3 4.0 %
47.7 3.0 %
49.1 3.0 %
EBIT EBIT-margin
4.0 31.1 %
5.5 35.8 %
8.0 42.3 %
10.6 48.0 %
12.9 50.0 %
14.5 49.0 %
16.7 50.0 %
18.7 50.0 %
20.6 50.0 %
22.2 50.0 %
23.1 50.0 %
23.8 50.0 %
24.5 50.0 %
Tax rate (EBT)
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
10.0 %
3.6
5.0
7.2
9.6
11.6
13.1
15.0
16.9
18.5
20.0
20.8
21.4
22.1
0.3 2.3 %
0.4 2.3 %
0.4 2.3 %
0.4 2.0 %
0.5 2.0 %
0.6 2.0 %
0.7 2.0 %
0.7 2.0 %
0.8 2.0 %
0.9 2.0 %
0.9 2.0 %
1.0 2.0 %
1.0 2.0 %
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1 2.5 19.2 %
0.6 2.5 16.1 %
0.6 2.5 13.2 %
0.1 0.4 2.0 %
0.4 0.5 2.0 %
0.4 0.6 2.0 %
0.3 0.7 2.0 %
0.2 0.7 2.0 %
0.1 0.8 2.0 %
0.0 0.9 2.0 %
-0.2 0.9 2.0 %
-0.3 1.0 2.0 %
-0.3 1.0 2.0 %
Other
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Free Cash Flow (WACC Model)
1.4
2.3
4.5
9.5
11.2
12.7
14.8
16.6
18.4
20.0
21.1
21.8
22.4
PV of FCF
1.3
2.0
3.7
7.1
7.7
8.1
8.6
8.9
9.1
9.1
8.8
8.3
7.9
NOPAT Depreciation in % of Sales Changes in provisions Change in Liquidity from - Working Capital - Capex Capex in % of Sales
3.13 %
share of PVs
37.02 %
Model parameter
3.0 %
23 135 59.85 %
Valuation (m)
Derivation of WACC:
Derivation of Beta:
Debt ratio Cost of debt (after tax) Market return Risk free rate
0.00 % 4.2 % 7.00 % 1.50 %
Financial Strength Liquidity (share) Cyclicality Transparency Others
1.00 1.50 1.20 1.50 1.50
WACC
8.87 %
Beta
1.34
Present values 2028e Terminal Value Financial liabilities Pension liabilities Hybrid capital Minority interest Market val. of investments Liquidity Equity Value
91 135 3 0 0 0 0 1 224
No. of shares (m) Value per share (EUR)
2.2 100.18
Sensitivity Value per Share (EUR)
Beta WACC 1.52 9.9 % 1.43 9.4 % 1.39 9.1 % 1.34 8.9 % 1.29 8.6 % 1.25 8.4 % 1.16 7.9 %
Terminal Growth 2.25 % 2.50 % 78.68 80.09 85.47 87.19 89.25 91.15 93.33 95.43 97.74 100.08 102.51 105.13 113.38 116.67
2.75 % 81.60 89.03 93.19 97.71 102.62 107.97 120.29
3.00 % 83.22 91.02 95.41 100.18 105.38 111.08 124.27
3.25 % 84.96 93.17 97.81 102.87 108.41 114.50 128.69
3.50 % 86.84 95.50 100.42 105.81 111.73 118.26 133.62
3.75 % 88.87 98.04 103.28 109.03 115.39 122.44 139.14
Beta 1.52 1.43 1.39 1.34 1.29 1.25 1.16
WACC 9.9 % 9.4 % 9.1 % 8.9 % 8.6 % 8.4 % 7.9 %
Delta EBIT-margin -1.5 pp -1.0 pp -0.5 pp +0.0 pp +0.5 pp +1.0 pp +1.5 pp 80.52 81.42 82.32 83.22 84.12 85.02 85.92 88.08 89.06 90.04 91.02 92.00 92.97 93.95 92.34 93.36 94.38 95.41 96.43 97.45 98.47 96.97 98.04 99.11 100.18 101.25 102.32 103.39 102.01 103.14 104.26 105.38 106.51 107.63 108.75 107.54 108.72 109.90 111.08 112.26 113.45 114.63 120.33 121.65 122.96 124.27 125.59 126.90 128.21
High demand for cloud solutions are the basis for the revenue and earnings expectations. Growth stimulus is expected in the SaaS/Cloud area, which should continually increase its share of revenues. A tax-optimised company structure and high loss carry-forwards have an additional positive effect. Comment: Buying of real estate in 2014.
COMMENT
P u bl i s h e d 2 9 . 0 7 . 2 0 1 6
3
InVision Valuation Price / Book Book value per share ex intangibles EV / Sales EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT EV / EBIT adj.* P / FCF P/E P / E adj.* Dividend Yield Free Cash Flow Yield Potential
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
6.6 x 1.53 2.0 x 22.9 x 32.7 x 32.7 x 32.8 x 46.0 x 43.1 x n.a. 2.9 %
8.1 x 2.02 2.8 x 18.4 x 21.6 x 21.6 x 14.3 x 27.5 x 24.7 x n.a. 5.3 %
11.7 x 3.51 7.3 x 21.9 x 23.9 x 23.9 x n.a. 23.6 x 23.1 x 2.2 % -1.7 %
12.3 x 3.53 8.2 x 32.6 x 39.0 x 39.0 x n.a. 47.9 x 47.4 x n.a. 0.3 %
7.6 x 5.04 7.0 x 20.9 x 22.5 x 22.5 x 63.2 x 24.5 x 24.5 x n.a. 1.6 %
5.3 x 7.26 5.7 x 14.9 x 15.8 x 15.8 x 38.7 x 17.6 x 17.6 x n.a. 3.2 %
3.7 x 10.49 4.5 x 9.9 x 10.4 x 10.4 x 19.8 x 12.3 x 12.3 x n.a. 6.0 %
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a.
*Adjustments made for: -
Company Specific Items Market Potential Cloud Computing (Gartner) Market Potential Cloud Computing (Forrester)
COMMENT
Published 29.07.2016
4
InVision Consolidated profit & loss In EUR m
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
13.2 6.8 %
13.6 2.5 %
13.4 -1.1 %
12.7 -5.2 %
13.0 2.3 %
15.5 19.2 %
18.8 21.3 %
0.0 0.0 13.2 0.3 12.9 97.4 %
0.0 0.0 13.6 0.3 13.2 97.6 %
0.0 0.0 13.4 0.2 13.2 98.2 %
0.0 0.0 12.7 0.4 12.3 97.1 %
0.0 0.0 13.0 0.4 12.6 97.0 %
0.0 0.0 15.5 0.4 15.1 97.5 %
0.0 0.0 18.8 0.5 18.3 97.5 %
Personnel expenses Other operating income Other operating expenses Unfrequent items EBITDA Margin
8.6 0.3 3.5 0.0 1.2 8.8 %
7.6 0.2 3.7 0.0 2.1 15.2 %
6.5 0.8 2.9 0.0 4.5 33.6 %
6.3 0.1 2.9 0.0 3.2 25.2 %
6.0 0.2 2.5 0.0 4.4 33.6 %
6.4 0.2 3.0 0.0 6.0 38.6 %
6.2 0.3 3.9 0.0 8.5 45.3 %
Depreciation of fixed assets EBITA Amortisation of intangible assets Goodwill amortization EBIT Margin EBIT adj.
0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.2 % 0.8
0.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.8 12.9 % 1.8
0.4 4.1 -0.1 0.0 4.1 30.8 % 4.1
0.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 2.7 21.1 % 2.7
0.3 4.1 0.0 0.0 4.1 31.3 % 4.1
0.4 5.6 0.0 0.0 5.6 36.3 % 5.6
0.4 8.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 43.0 % 8.1
Interest income Interest expenses Other financial income (loss) EBT Margin
0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.7 5.3 %
0.0 0.0 -0.2 1.5 11.4 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 30.2 %
0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 21.0 %
0.0 0.0 0.1 4.1 31.8 %
0.0 0.0 0.1 5.7 36.9 %
0.0 0.0 0.1 8.2 43.5 %
Total taxes Net income from continuing operations Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) Net income before minorities Minority interest Net income Margin
-0.1 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.6 4.7 %
0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6 11.4 %
-0.2 4.2 0.0 4.2 0.0 4.2 31.3 %
0.5 2.1 0.0 2.1 0.0 2.1 16.8 %
0.4 3.7 0.0 3.7 0.0 3.7 28.6 %
0.6 5.2 0.0 5.2 0.0 5.2 33.3 %
0.8 7.4 0.0 7.4 0.0 7.4 39.2 %
2.2 0.29 0.31
2.2 0.71 0.79
2.2 1.90 1.94
2.2 0.97 0.98
2.2 1.66 1.66
2.2 2.31 2.31
2.2 3.30 3.30
Sales Change Sales yoy Increase / decrease in inventory Own work capitalised Total Sales Material Expenses Gross profit Gross profit margin
Number of shares, average EPS EPS adj. *Adjustments made for:
Guidance: 2016 revenues of at least EUR 12m, EBIT EUR 3.5m - 4m
Financial Ratios Total Operating Costs / Sales Operating Leverage EBITDA / Interest expenses Tax rate (EBT) Dividend Payout Ratio Sales per Employee
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
91.2 % n.a. n.a. -20.7 % 0.0 % 95,165
84.8 % 46.2 x n.a. -0.6 % 0.0 % 116,867
66.4 % -124.0 x n.a. -3.7 % 52.5 % 128,931
74.8 % 6.7 x n.a. 20.1 % 0.0 % 139,644
66.4 % 22.6 x n.a. 9.9 % 0.0 % 142,857
61.4 % 2.0 x n.a. 9.9 % 0.0 % 170,330
54.7 % 2.1 x n.a. 9.8 % 0.0 % 206,593
Sales, EBITDA
Operating Performance
in EUR m
in %
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 29.07.2016
Performance per Share
Source: Warburg Research
5
InVision Consolidated balance sheet In EUR m
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
1.0 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 2.8 2.5 1.6 6.9 8.2
0.9 0.9 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6 4.6 1.1 7.3 8.9
0.7 0.7 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 2.0 4.4 1.3 7.7 15.2
0.6 0.6 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.0 2.8 1.4 0.7 4.8 14.2
0.7 0.7 0.0 10.9 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.0 2.8 2.6 0.7 6.1 17.6
0.8 0.8 0.0 12.9 0.0 0.0 13.7 0.0 3.4 4.9 0.7 9.0 22.7
0.9 0.9 0.0 14.8 0.0 0.0 15.8 0.0 4.1 9.5 0.7 14.3 30.1
2.2 21.2 0.0 -19.0 4.4 0.0 4.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 3.9 8.2
2.2 9.2 1.3 -7.5 5.2 0.0 5.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.6 8.9
2.2 8.0 1.3 -3.1 8.5 0.0 8.5 0.9 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.8 15.2
2.2 1.2 0.0 4.9 8.4 0.0 8.4 0.6 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.9 14.2
2.2 1.2 3.7 4.8 12.0 0.0 12.0 0.6 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.6 17.6
2.2 1.2 8.8 4.8 17.1 0.0 17.1 0.6 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.6 22.7
2.2 1.2 16.0 4.9 24.4 0.0 24.4 0.6 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.7 30.1
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
4.5 x 6.9 x 46.5 %
7.1 x 20.1 x 97.5 %
1.5 x 1.7 x 55.7 %
1.1 x 1.2 x 22.6 %
1.0 x 1.1 x 32.1 %
1.0 x 1.0 x 37.6 %
1.0 x 1.1 x 46.8 %
51.2 % 15.2 % 16.4 %
n.a. 32.2 % 35.8 %
97.9 % 61.3 % 62.5 %
23.4 % 25.3 % 25.6 %
32.4 % 36.6 % 36.6 %
36.9 % 35.6 % 35.6 %
44.2 % 35.6 % 35.6 %
-2.5 -2.5 -56.6 % n.a. 2.0 1.5
-4.6 -4.6 -87.2 % n.a. 2.4 2.0
-0.4 -0.4 -4.6 % n.a. 3.8 3.5
1.8 1.8 22.0 % 57.6 % 3.8 3.5
0.4 0.4 3.4 % 9.3 % 5.4 5.0
-1.9 -1.9 -11.4 % n.a. 7.6 7.3
-6.5 -6.5 -26.8 % n.a. 10.9 10.5
Assets Goodwill and other intangible assets thereof other intangible assets thereof Goodwill Property, plant and equipment Financial assets Other long-term assets Fixed assets Inventories Accounts receivable Liquid assets Other short-term assets Current assets Total Assets Liabilities and shareholders' equity Subscribed capital Capital reserve Retained earnings Other equity components Shareholders' equity Minority interest Total equity Provisions thereof provisions for pensions and similar obligations Financial liabilities (total) thereof short-term financial liabilities Accounts payable Other liabilities Liabilities Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
Financial Ratios Efficiency of Capital Employment Operating Assets Turnover Capital Employed Turnover ROA Return on Capital ROCE (NOPAT) ROE Adj. ROE Balance sheet quality Net Debt Net Financial Debt Net Gearing Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA Book Value / Share Book value per share ex intangibles
ROCE Development
Source: Warburg Research
Net debt
Book Value per Share
in EUR m
in EUR
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 29.07.2016
6
InVision Consolidated cash flow statement In EUR m
Net income Depreciation of fixed assets Amortisation of goodwill Amortisation of intangible assets Increase/decrease in long-term provisions Other non-cash income and expenses Cash Flow Increase / decrease in inventory Increase / decrease in accounts receivable Increase / decrease in accounts payable Increase / decrease in other working capital positions Increase / decrease in working capital (total) Net cash provided by operating activities Investments in intangible assets Investments in property, plant and equipment Payments for acquisitions Financial investments Income from asset disposals Net cash provided by investing activities Change in financial liabilities Dividends paid Purchase of own shares Capital measures Other Net cash provided by financing activities Change in liquid funds Effects of exchange-rate changes on cash Cash and cash equivalent at end of period
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.0 1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.0 2.5
1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.5 1.7 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.9 2.1 0.0 4.6
4.2 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 3.7 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 3.1 0.0 6.3 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -7.2 4.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.9 0.0 2.9 -1.2 0.0 3.4
2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.7 3.1 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.7 2.3 0.0 2.4 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.4 -0.8 0.0 0.0 -2.2 0.0 -3.0 -2.0 0.0 1.4
3.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 3.9 0.1 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 1.2 0.0 2.6
5.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.6 4.8 0.1 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 4.9
7.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.0 -0.7 0.1 0.0 -0.6 7.1 0.1 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 9.5
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016e
2017e
2018e
0.7 6.7 % 0.8 142.9 % 0.6 % 0.0 %
3.0 21.8 % 2.0 190.8 % 0.3 % n.a.
-3.3 -24.3 % -1.7 -77.6 % -0.7 % 0.0 %
0.0 -0.3 % 0.3 -1.7 % -1.4 % 0.0 %
1.4 11.1 % 1.4 38.8 % -2.0 % 0.0 %
2.4 15.2 % 2.9 45.5 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
4.6 24.4 % 5.1 62.2 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
3.0 % 4.2 % 114.3 % 23.9 % 1889.4 % 28.0 x 78 161 -145
0.5 % 0.5 % 20.2 % 14.4 % 420.1 % 28.5 x 42 420 -405
47.3 % 47.3 % 1674.5 % 11.6 % 1486.2 % 246879.0 x 55 202 -202
18.6 % 18.6 % 450.1 % 17.8 % 2370.9 % 373738.0 x 79 114 -114
19.2 % 19.2 % 832.8 % 20.5 % 2800.0 % n.a. 79 94 n.a.
16.1 % 16.1 % 698.4 % 19.4 % 3400.0 % n.a. 80 94 n.a.
13.2 % 13.2 % 575.8 % 19.1 % 2050.0 % n.a. 80 155 n.a.
Financial Ratios Cash Flow FCF Free Cash Flow / Sales Free Cash Flow Potential Free Cash Flow / Net Profit Interest Received / Avg. Cash Interest Paid / Avg. Debt Management of Funds Investment ratio Maint. Capex / Sales Capex / Dep Avg. Working Capital / Sales Trade Debtors / Trade Creditors Inventory Turnover Receivables collection period (days) Payables payment period (days) Cash conversion cycle (Days)
CAPEX and Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow Generation
Working Capital
Source: Warburg Research
Source: Warburg Research
in EUR m
Source: Warburg Research
COMMENT
Published 29.07.2016
7
InVision LEGAL DISCLAIMER This research report (“investment recommendation” or “recommendation”) was prepared by the Warburg Research GmbH, a fully owned subsidiary of the M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and is passed on by the M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA. It contains selected information and does not purport to be complete. The report is based on publicly available information and data ("the information") believed to be accurate and complete. Warburg Research GmbH neither examines the information for accuracy and completeness, nor guarantees its accuracy and completeness. Possible errors or incompleteness of the information do not constitute grounds for liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA or Warburg Research GmbH for damages of any kind whatsoever, and M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are not liable for indirect and/or direct and/or consequential damages. In particular, neither M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA nor Warburg Research GmbH are liable for the statements, plans or other details contained in these analyses concerning the examined companies, their affiliated companies, strategies, economic situations, market and competitive situations, regulatory environment, etc. Although due care has been taken in compiling this research report, it cannot be excluded that it is incomplete or contains errors. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH, their shareholders and employees are not liable for the accuracy and completeness of the statements, estimations and the conclusions derived from the information contained in this document. Provided a research report is being transmitted in connection with an existing contractual relationship, i.e. financial advisory or similar services, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH shall be restricted to gross negligence and wilful misconduct. In case of failure in essential tasks, M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are liable for normal negligence. In any case, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH is limited to typical, expectable damages. This research report does not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer for the purchase or sale of any security. Partners, directors or employees of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA, Warburg Research GmbH or affiliated companies may serve in a position of responsibility, i.e. on the board of directors of companies mentioned in the report. Opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. All rights reserved.
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DISCLOSURE ACCORDING TO §34B OF THE GERMAN SECURITIES TRADING ACT (WHPG), THE ORDINANCE ON THE ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS (FINANV) AND MAR INCL. COMMISSION DELEGATED REGULATION (EU) 2016/958 The valuation underlying the investment recommendation for the company analysed here is based on generally accepted and widely used methods of fundamental analysis, such as e.g. DCF Model, Free Cash Flow Potential, Peer Group Comparison or Sum of the Parts Model. The result of this fundamental valuation is modified to take into consideration the analyst’s assessment as regards the expected development of investor sentiment and its impact on the share price. Independent of the applied valuation methods, there is the risk that the price target will not be met, for instance because of unforeseen changes in demand for the company’s products, changes in management, technology, economic development, interest rate development, operating and/or material costs, competitive pressure, supervisory law, exchange rate, tax rate etc. For investments in foreign markets and instruments there are further risks, generally based on exchange rate changes or changes in political and social conditions. This commentary reflects the opinion of the relevant author at the point in time of its compilation. A change in the fundamental factors underlying the valuation can mean that the valuation is subsequently no longer accurate. Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this commentary follows is not determined in advance. Additional internal and organisational arrangements to prevent or to deal with conflicts of interest have been implemented. Among these are the spatial separation of Warburg Research GmbH from M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and the creation of areas of confidentiality. This prevents the exchange of information, which could form the basis of conflicts of interest for Warburg Research in terms of the analysed issuers or their financial instruments. The analysts of Warburg Research GmbH do not receive a gratuity – directly or indirectly – from the investment banking activities of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA or of any company within the Warburg Group. All prices of financial instruments given in this financial analysis are the closing prices on the last stock-market trading day before the publication date stated, unless another point in time is explicitly stated. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are subject to the supervision of the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, BaFin. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA is additionally subject to the supervision of the European Central Bank (ECB).
SOURCES All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise.
COMMENT
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InVision Additional information for clients in the United States
1. This research report (the “Report”) is a product of Warburg Research GmbH, Germany, a fully owned subsidiary of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA, Germany (in the following collectively “Warburg”). Warburg is the employer of the research analyst(s), who have prepared the Report. The research analyst(s) reside outside the United States and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer and therefore are not subject to the supervision of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer. 2. The Report is provided in the United States for distribution solely to "major U.S. institutional investors" under Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. 3. Any recipient of the Report should effect transactions in the securities discussed in the Report only through J.P.P. Euro-Securities, Inc., Delaware. 4. J.P.P. Euro-Securities, Inc. does not accept or receive any compensation of any kind for the dissemination of the research reports from Warburg.
Reference in accordance with section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), the Ordinance on the Analysis of Financial Instruments (FinAnV), MAR and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) regarding possible conflicts of interest with companies analysed: -1-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, or an employee of one of these companies responsible for the compilation of the research, hold a share of more than 5% of the equity capital of the analysed company.
-2-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, within the last twelve months participated in the management of a consortium for an issue in the course of a public offering of such financial instruments, which are, or the issuer of which is, the subject of the financial analysis.
-3-
Companies affiliated with Warburg Research manage financial instruments, which are, or the issuers of which are, subject of the financial analysis, in a market based on the provision of buy or sell contracts.
-4-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, reached an agreement with the issuer to provide investment services and the relevant agreement was in force in the last 12 months or an obligation to pay or to receive compensation existed for this period based on the agreement - provided that this disclosure does not result in the disclosure of confidential business information.
-5-
The company compiling the analysis or an affiliated company had reached an agreement on the compilation of the financial analysis with the analysed company.
-6-
Companies affiliated with Warburg Research regularly trade financial instruments of the analysed company or derivatives of these.
-6a-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, holds a net long position of more than 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the analysed company.
-6b-
Warburg Research, or an affiliated company, holds a net short position of more than 0.5% of the total issued share capital of the analysed company.
-6c-
The issuer holds shares of more than 5% of the total issued capital of Warburg Research or an affiliated company.
-7-
The company preparing the analysis as well as its affiliated companies and employees have other important interests in relation to the analysed company, such as, for example, the exercising of mandates at analysed companies.
This report has been made accessible to the company analysed. Company
Disclosure
Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months)
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http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE0005859698.htm
COMMENT
Published 29.07.2016
9
InVision INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of the analyst who covers this financial instrument. -B-
Buy:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months.
-H-
Hold:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12 months.
-S-
Sell:
The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months.
“-“
Rating suspended:
The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company.
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING Rating
Number of stocks
% of Universe
Buy
121
64
Hold
61
32
Sell
6
3
Rating suspended
2
1
190
100
Total
WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING J J taking into account only those companies which were provided with major investment services in the last twelve months. Rating
Number of stocks
% of Universe
Buy
25
71
Hold
8
23
Sell
1
3
Rating suspended
1
3
35
100
Total
PRICE AND RATING HISTORY INVISION AS OF 28.07.2016 Markings in the chart show rating changes by Warburg Research GmbH in the last 12 months. Every marking details the date and closing price on the day of the rating change.
COMMENT
Published 29.07.2016
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