Is the electric vehicle an attractive option for customers?
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Is the electric vehicle an attractive option for customers? Israel García and Luis Javier Miguel University of Valladolid. Spain.
Abstract The objective of the study is to aid decision-making necessary for the impulsion and development of electric vehicles in Spain, taking the time horizon of 2020. This will be achieved by building a System Dynamics model, which will be used for the analysis, comparison of various dynamic variables will influence how much, and how, in the number of electric vehicles that will run on Spanish roads in the coming years, by building various scenarios.
1.- Introduction Road transport today is responsible for a significant and growing share of global emissions of CO2. In 2008, the transport sector consumed the 38% of the total energy used in Spain. Within this, road transport still it is almost entirely dependent on oil-derived fuels (about 98%), therefore highly vulnerable to possible oil prices fluctuations, and supply disruptions. The transport sector is responsible of more than 25% of CO2 emissions in Spain, and road transport is responsible of 90% of CO2 emissions in this sector, with an energy consumption about the 80% of the sector [5]. Looking at these data, it is necessary a changing process in the automotive sector which involves a reduction in both CO2 emissions and energy consumption of vehicles running in Spain. It has been proposed a transition to EV (electrically-powered vehicles) because they have the potential for significant reductions in CO2 emissions. As expected, the change will not be easy. The task is certainly complex; changing consumer habits after many years using a kind of vehicle with a range of benefits that, in some way, will cease.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul This paper examines individuals motivations when purchasing vehicles, focusing upon what economics factors would encourage consumers to purchase an electrical vehicle or a conventional vehicle. This research attempts to ascertain whether, economically, reductions in fuel costs, reductions of mechanical damage to the engine (due to its simplicity), or green house gas emissions would encourage individuals to purchase an electric vehicle or a conventional vehicle in the next 10 years. To do this, we are going to consider the costs when acquiring the vehicle, but also the costs over the life of the vehicle (including the oil and electricity prices fluctuations, taxes, garage conditioning for recharging, etc), to determine the years of repayment of the purchase of an electric vehicle compared to a conventional vehicle.
2.- Work Methodology The methodology used in this project is the creation of a simulation model through which different policy options will be played in different scenarios, leading to different results. Due to the complexity of the model to create, and variety of interactions between its component variables, the research method used to create the model and its analysis is the System Dynamics. It is very important to be clear that System Dynamics is not a tool designed to predict the future, but is a tool to understand the present: to understand the variables that interact and how they can influence.
3.- General model description. Fig 1 shows a general vision of the model’s blocks and the interrelations between them.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Environmen t
Electric Vehicle Manufacture
Government Decisions
Electric Vehicle Demand
Electric Vehicle Costs
Technology Evolution
Electric Vechicle Atractive
Figure 1: General Model schema Initially there is a demand for the electric vehicles. The vehicles manufacturing must satisfy this demand. For the study, they are considered the vehicles that will be manufactured for the Spanish market, no matter the country they were manufactured. As the number of vehicles manufactured increases, the electric vehicles park will grow too, which clearly affect to CO2 emissions included in the environmental block, and the policies that the Government can take in either form of subsidies, special cargo rates, increasing the number of charging points, etc. The Government’s policies will also be influenced by the environmental block, since the subsidies will be amended to reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. The Government’s policies will significantly influence the cost that the potential customer will perceive when purchasing electric vehicles, due to subsidies, and the costs over
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul the life of the vehicle by overnight charge reduced rates, etc. In addition, the Government's policies will also affect the attractiveness of electric vehicles for the consumer, regarded to a conventional vehicle. This is motivated by the advantages or disadvantages it may have to buy an electric vehicle, such as the lack of charging points, the cost of recharging the electric vehicle, etc. Both the cost of electric vehicle as their attractiveness to the consumer, will be directly related to the evolution that the technology of electric vehicles will have in the coming years. This is because a very important part of the purchase price of electric vehicles is the battery, and one of the main factors of concern for potential buyers is the autonomy they have. To close the loop, the electric vehicle demand will evolve over time, influenced by the costs which the vehicle is for the buyer (in the initial time of purchase, and throughout the life of the vehicle), and the attractiveness of it. It is interesting to note that, in global terms, the evolution of the technologies associated with electric vehicle will be also influenced by the demand for it. In this study is not considered in this way, since the demand for electric vehicles in Spain is a very small proportion in comparison to global demand, which will be motivating technological advances in this field. The same happens with other blocks, that is, the system being treated is not an isolated system. The global market for electric vehicles will influence the system, but for this study, we have considered various data as exogenous variables, ie the value of these variables is determined by factors not included in the model being used. According to this, we can determine that the study covers worldwide developments.
4.- Block: Electric vehicle cost
Although in the full study are treated all the blocks, for this paper is only going to be explained the block containing the electric vehicle costs and its comparison with the conventional vehicle. This model’s block, tries to analyze the costs of electric vehicles and conventional vehicle costs, both at the purchasing time by the customer, and during the lifetime of the vehicle. To do this, data will be considered as an evolution of oil prices and electricity, maintenance costs, etc. The model has been divided into 4 sections: purchasing cost of the electric vehicle, the cost of ownership of the electric vehicle during its life, purchasing cost of the conventional
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul vehicle, and the cost of ownership of the conventional vehicle during its life. The total cost of electric vehicles will consist of the sum of the purchasing cost and the running costs of electric vehicles. In the same way, the total cost of conventional vehicles will consist of the sum of the purchasing cost and the running costs of conventional vehicles. The figure 2 shows a summary of the overall functioning of the block.
Purcharsing cost of the Convencional Vehicle
Anual cost of the Convencional Vehicle Total Convencional Vehicle Cost
Total Electric Vechicle Cost Purchasing cost of the Electric Vehicle
Anual cost of the Electric Vehicle
Figure 2: Diagram of the electric vehicle cost
The simplest section corresponds to the purchasing cost of conventional vehicle by the customer. The conventional vehicles that can potentially compete with electric vehicles are relatively compact, so that, based on statistical data and purchasing trends in Spain, a reference price has been set for the conventional vehicle. Once set the reference value of the conventional vehicle, the purchasing cost of electric vehicles will be determined by the reference value of the conventional vehicle, adding some kind of costs, but also eliminating others costs. The next fig. shows a simplified schema of the electric vehicle [13].
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 3: Electric Vehicle schema The most significant additional costs of electric vehicles will be the necessary wiring and charger for charging both slowly and rapidly recharge the vehicle [6], and the different transmission that is necessary, and of course, the most significant value will be the cost of the batteries. According to the information available [6], in Spain the extra charger and wiring costs, will be worth about 480 €, while the cost of transmission will be 160 €. In contrast, the motor simplification leads to a reduction of product cost. It is estimated that a gasoline engine, will cost about 2,400 €, while the electric motor only costs € 1,200, so that there is an interesting reduction. One of the key factors in the evolution of the purchasing price of electric vehicles will be the evolution of the batteries costs will have in the coming years. To forecast these developments, there has been a model including forecasted values of the reducing cost of kWh, and the evolution that the battery capacity will suffer in the coming years in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios [4], developed in the Technology Block. For its calculation it is also necessary to know the battery capacity, the price is going to cost manufacture the battery. For the cost estimate, we have used a graph of the expected price per kWh reduction will happen in the next 10 years. To do this, we used the following [2]:
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 4: Forecast of the battery price. As can be seen in the graph, there are several scenarios for the cost of batteries, but what is quite clear is that it provides a very significant decrease in the cost of the batteries. So far, the decline in the cost of the batteries has been given by a decrease between 6% and 8% per year [2]. Many analysts predict the price will continue falling in the next 10 years the same way due to increased production volumes. A cost that has also been considered for this study is the upgrading cost the garage in appropriate cases, to be able to recharge the battery in it. Taking into account the potential population who live in apartment buildings, in single-family houses, and the Spanish law, the upgrading cost will vary significantly. According to a RACE study [8], 80% of the population would choose the night time to charge electric vehicles, so that is assumed to simplify the model in these early years of commercialization of electric vehicles, a customer acquiring an electric vehicle, will also put his garage putting a load on it. At this point it will be very important to know if the available garage is Individual or is community, since it weighs charging system is similar, the method of calculation of electricity consumption is very different. This is because in an individual garage all electricity consumed (either by charging an electric vehicle or having a computer connected air conditioner for example) will be billed to a single consumer. In contrast, in the community garage is necessary to discriminate the source of consumption in order to be charged. According to data from the INE (National Institue of Statistics) the 28% of the population lives in a single-family house, while the 72% live in a building. While not 100% of
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul the population has a garage, this study has ignored that fact, since according to all surveys [8], the potential client has a garage. The figure 5 shows a diagram configuration example for recharging batteries in the garage [2]
Figure 5: Garage recharging system In a garage of a single-family house is simply necessary to have a 230V and 16A household outlet. Due to this, the cost has been estimated to be approximately 100 € [9], since the plug will be needed to garages that are available and will have to complete a minimum packaging. In the case of collective garages system is slightly more complex. While the law already authorizes and provides facilities such collective garages (Law 49/1960, of July 21), in this case as well as having a plug of similar dimensions to those of Individual garage are needed in a counter to discriminate the source of consumption. Thus, the residents pay the total electricity consumed, then that cost is distributed among users of existing electric vehicles in proportion to their consumption. However, in anticipation of widespread recharging of electric vehicles in collective garages, several brands of electric circuits are beginning to market solutions for collective garages such as monitoring systems chargers interface, or in its most simple individual refueling points are activated by a reader user, which will eliminate potential vandalism. In view of the electrical systems installed in the garage, it is logical that the cost of installation will be very superior to the Individual garage. In the light of actual budgets, and taking into account the need for the implementation of a certification to be a new installation,
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul the estimated average cost of 900 € in preparation for community garage for charging electric vehicle [11]. As a final factor to consider in the purchase price of electric vehicles, are the subsidies that the government can give at the specific time of purchase. For this calculation, we use three interrelated variables: the value of the subsidy, the budget that the IDAE (Spanish Energy Institute) can spend on subsidies for the purchase [5], and finally, the money already being spent on subsidies. Currently, have been taken as subsidy to purchase 7.000 euros [5] which is the average subsidy for this type of vehicle in Spain. The government budget is 240 million euros in 2011 and 2012. Since 2012, no data or estimations of subsidies to be delivered. Once established the purchasing costs in both vehicles, now it's necessary to determinate the running costs, that in both cases are mainly the cost of fuel (and the consumption of it) and the cost of vehicle maintenance. For the conventional vehicle, the analysis of the annual fuel consumption begins with the average consumption of a internal combustion vehicle today in Spain, taking into account the average consumption of diesel and gasoline vehicles, as well as the percentage of population using every kind of vehicle. It is considered that the average consumption of a gasoline engine is 8 liters per 100 km, while the average consumption of a diesel vehicle is 6 liters per 100 km [1]. Given that in Spain, 53% of vehicles are gasoline, and diesel 47% [10], the current average consumption of an internal combustion vehicle is the product of the consumption of gasoline vehicles by their percentage product, added to the consumption of diesel vehicles multiplied by their percentage. After obtaining a reference data, have been added some improvements in the efficiency of the engines will be developed in coming years and aerodynamic improvements that will change dynamically the vehicle consumption [6]: Estimate how will be the evolution of oil prices over the next 10 years is a task of great complexity and a high rate of failure. The price of oil depends on many factors. There are few reserves in the world and is a scarce commodity. In addition, there is a mismatch between supply and demand. Another important factor to consider are the large financial speculation, apart from existing geo-political conditions (oil may rise political situations involving producing countries). The following figure shows the evolution of oil prices in recent decades. It shows the great variability of the price and complexity of this development model mathematically. [14]
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 6: Oil price evolution However, to obtain a more realistic model has not wanted to leave the fixed oil price (the value at the beginning of 2010) but rather evolve over the simulation [7]. The forecast values in oil prices in dollars are: YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
PRICE
70,30
73,06
79,41
85,74
90,91
94,52
98,23
101,23
104,41
106,47
108,28
To this oil price, has to be added the tax regulations fixed at the Spanish legislation, as well as transport and the profit margin of gas stations. According to data from "Market Observatory for Energy" [7], indirect taxes for gasoline are € 436.47 per 1000 liters, while for diesel fuels are € 340.36 per 1000 liters. The I.V.A. tax in Spain is the 18%, and the profit margin of gas stations in Spain is about the 25%. Finally, we estimated the maintenance costs that conventional vehicles will be on an annual basis. For this, we have estimated the maintenance costs than a conventional vehicle has over its useful life, and has made relative to the number of kilometers that makes up being replaced. The value obtained is 0.03 € per kilometer covered [1]. If this value is multiplied by the average annual kilometers traveled by a vehicle, will result an economic value that the customer spends on an annual basis due to the conventional vehicle maintenance. For the running costs of the electric vehicle, the schema is similar to conventional vehicle: There is an annual cost because the vehicle consumption, and other costs due to vehicle maintenance. The annual cost due to the electric vehicle consumption is calculated based on the electricity’s price, but it's necessary take into account various considerations: The numbers of
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul users that will have an conditioned garage, the numbers of user that will recharge by night, by day, the driving patterns [2], etc. First consideration is to assume that most users who have electric vehicles, will have a garage (as seen before), and most of them (80% [8]) loaded the car at night. This value also is supported by studies in pilot positions in analyzing the patterns of use of the electric vehicle and its load. So, the following graph shows the results of a study of "Idaho National Laboratory” [2].
Figure 7: Driving patterns Can be clearly seen how the majority of recharges are done during a period of not using the vehicle in nocturnal phase. According to this, we studied the prices of recharge during the day, the evening and at the reduced rate called “Tarifa Supervalle” given by the Government of Spain. The last rate is designed to support the loads of electric vehicles made during the night, and thereby improve the load curve as explained above, as is reflected in the “Strategy to Promote Electric Vehicle in Spain "[3]. Since there is no information yet on this rate, we estimated a maximum cost per kWh that would have this rate-calculated value being 50% of the cost of electricity during the night. It has been taken this value in a way certainly arbitrary, since as mentioned above, there is no information yet on this rate, but it is considered that this value of kWh, can achieve the results anticipated at this rate. With the values of all rates and the estimations of potential users of each rate, it has obtained the average electricity’s price. As happened with oil prices, obtain an estimate of the electricity’s price in Spain is extremely difficult, but for a more realistic model has been necessary to create this estimate.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul Neither can extrapolate data from the values of recent years, due to the continuous modification of the rates due to tariff deficit of the electrical system The tariff deficit is the difference between the actual cost of electricity production (both produce and transport and distribution) and the fixed rate. This generates a debt that accumulates every year. Because of this, the prices will suffer a fluctuation difficult to quantify. According to this, have been assumed an annual increase of 2% in the electricity’s price, which is applied on the average price calculated above. Finally, it’s necessary estimate the maintenance costs in the same way that conventional vehicles, this is, relative to the number of kilometers that makes up being replaced. The maintenance cost of an electric vehicle has throughout his life made relative to the number of kilometers that made until that is replaced is 0.02 € per kilometer covered [1].
By multiplying this value by the average annual miles traveled by a vehicle, you get the economic value that the customer spends annually by maintaining the electric vehicle. As can see, the maintenance cost per kilometer is significantly lower compared to the conventional vehicle (33% lower). This is because electric motors do not have a high variety of working parts which means that it is not necessary a continuous maintenance as exhaustive as in internal combustion engines. In fact, the electric motor has one moving part, the shaft, which is very reliable and requires little or no maintenance. Another important factor is the elimination of oil, which implies that it is not necessary to make periodic changes to it. In the electric vehicle drive systems do not exist, or fuel pumps, or injection, which also minimizes maintenance. The fact that the electric motor is simpler than internal combustion, reduce the risk of breakdowns in its simplicity. Once all input data have been determined and modeled, the output data is the number of years that the potential client takes to recoup their investment. This value will depend on the timeframe when purchases the vehicle. According the number of years for repayment, the purchase of electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicle, will have a different appeal to the potential customer, resulting in a percentage of the population that potentially will want to buy an electric vehicle in Spain. This result, added to the rest of the results of the other blocks of the model, will enable us to obtain the estimated number of vehicles that will run on Spanish roads in the coming years.
6.- Results
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul The first scenario to analyze corresponds to the baseline model, based on data we know today for Spain, that is, a forecast model in terms of the likely evolution of the batteries and the non-implementation of battery exchange stations [12] and with estimated average battery cost. We could say that is the reference state. To combine these data, it is assumed that government subsidies are going to be known to this day, that is, € 7.000 for the purchase. As for the cost of the battery, according to the average forecast in 2020 the cost per kWh will be close to 243 € [2], implying that a full battery will cost about 6.500 €.
Figure 8: Forecast of battery price in baseline model According to the model and the average forecasts in all fields, we find that the number of vehicles in 2020 would be around 700.000.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 9: Electric vehicles in Spanish roads Which involve a number of CO2 tons not emitted to the atmosphere of more than 6 million.
Figure 10: TON of CO2 no emitted
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul The following scenarios are designed to study the evolution of the cost of the battery will take next. As seen before, the cost of the battery will be decisive in the evolution of the electric vehicle demand. For the analysis of this battery development, will be consider two scenarios in addition to the baseline: the optimistic scenario with an annual decrease of 10% in kWh of the battery (corresponds to a major evolution of the electric vehicle sales worldwide make dramatically lower the cost of the battery due to mass production), and one pessimistic, with an annual decrease of 4% in the price of the battery (scenario represents a poor use of electric vehicles, where mass production batteries has failed to take off significantly for achieving a significant reduction in the price of it). The baseline scenario is a decrease of 7%. The following figure shows the cost of the battery in the various scenarios.
Figure 11: Forecast of battery cost in the optimistic, pessimistic and baseline scenarios. In these three cases, the electric vehicle fleet evolves as follows:
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 12: Electric vehicles in roads for the optimistic, pessimistic and baseline scenarios. Can be seen that the years 2013 until there is a clear difference between the various scenarios. This is because the battery capacity in these early years of commercialization of electric vehicles is relatively small (22 kWh). The value of kWh between scenarios in 2013 ranged between values of 364 and 442 €, i.e. about 80 € of difference, which increased by 22 kWh are approximately 1,700 €. As the battery is increasing in capacity, this price difference becomes more significant. This can be seen clearly in the graph of the average price of electric vehicles with the current values of the facilities.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 13: Electric vehicle price for the optimistic, pessimistic and baseline scenarios. As seen before, the price of the electric vehicle grows so much at 2012 due to the end of subsidies currently approved by the Spanish government. If government support is stopped as a subsidy for purchasing of electric vehicles, the targets are not met. The following figure shows the optimistic scenario of reducing the cost of the battery with respect to the objectives of government.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul Figure 14: Electric vehicle compared to the Government target for the optimist scenario without subsidies in 2013. If we keep constant the subsidies of 7.000 € in time for the optimistic scenario, we obtain the following results.
Figure 15: Electric vehicle compared to the Government target for the optimist scenario with subsidies until 2020. In this case, the results are well above the targets set, but with an exorbitant cost (close to 14.000 million euros). Performing various simulations, we can determine that in the optimistic scenario of reducing the cost of the battery, with a grant value of € 2.000 from 2012, achieved the objectives set by the government until at least 2016, and there is a slight difference in subsequent years, only to converge after 2020.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 16: Electric vehicle compared to the Government target for the optimist scenario with the optimal subsidies until 2020. For € 2.000 of subsidy, the total government expenditure will be slightly in excess of 3.000 million euros, which is a value quite consistent with the current government budget (remembering for the years 2011 and 2012 the budget was 240 million euros) without suffering an increase of it (which, moreover, it seems logical to increase, and expected increase in demand) would be 1,200 million euros. The case of the pessimistic scenario is quite different from optimistic about the value of the subsidies necessary to achieve the objectives. When using the estimated value of € 2.000 for the optimistic scenario, we find that until 2014, the goal is met, but as the battery will increase its capacity over time, demand for electric vehicle will decrease, since that the electric vehicle will lose competitiveness against conventional vehicle due to high additional costs.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 17: Electric vehicle compared to the Government target for the pessimist scenario without subsidies until 2020. In this case the optimal value of the subsidies after making several simulations were obtained for values between 4.500 € and 5.000 €, implying a cost to the government of nearly 6.000 million euros in this type of grant.
Figure 18: Electric vehicle compared to the Government target for the pessimist scenario with the optimal subsidies until 2020.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul In view of the results, which can be determined taking into account the decrease in the cost of kWh battery that will exist in coming years, the value of the subsidies to be given to the purchase of electric vehicles will range from € 2.000 in optimistic case, up to 5.000 of the pessimist.
7.- Conclusions As seen in results, regardless of technological developments that may occur in the coming years, if government subsidies are limited to 2012, won’t be achieved the targets set for 2020, concerning the number of electric vehicles circulating on Spanish roads. As has been analyzed in the view of the results of different scenarios, for a good implementation of electric vehicles, will need to be a major expense of the government to subsidize the purchase. The acquisition of electric vehicles compared to conventional, has a cost which is not always accepted by the consumer (although it will be compensated for the use of the vehicle). In none of the scenarios discussed (even in the most optimistic scenario) are obtained the desired results if subsidies are paralyzed the potential buyer. While it is true that the value of the subsidies provided today will not be necessary in the near future, being able to significantly reduce this amount, appear necessary at least until 2020. In fact, the economic factor is so important that in the scenarios of evolution of autonomy, the potential client will prevail before the economic aspect of the vehicle autonomy. In fact, according to the results of the simulations, the customer will prefer a vehicle with less autonomy, but has a lower cost. Therefore, although there are significant technological improvements will remain necessary extra financial contribution when the vehicle is purchased.
8.- References [1] Cuadernos de Energía, nº 26, octubre de 2009. [2] Electrification Coalition (2009). Electrification Roadmap. Revolutionizing transportation and achieving energy security. [3] Estrategia integral para el impulso del vehículo eléctrico en España. [4] Hensley, Russell, Knupfer, Stefan, and Pinner, Dickon (2009). McKinsey Quarterly, nº 3. Electrifying cars: How three industries will evolve. [5] IDAE. Proyecto Movele. Proyecto piloto de demostración de viabilidad del vehículo eléctrico.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul [6] MIT (2008). On the Road in 2035: Reducing Transportation’s Petroleum Consumption and GHG Emissions. [7] U.S. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2010. [9] http://www.alargador.org [10] http://www.dgt.es/portal/ [11] http://www.forococheselectricos.com [12] http://www.soitu.es/soitu/2008/10/13/medioambiente/1223914963_725195.html [13] http://www.eve.es/web/Eficiencia-Energetica/Transporte/El-cocheelectrico/Componentes-principales-de-un-vehiculo-electrico.aspx
Is the electric vehicle an attractive option for customers? Israel García and Luis Javier Miguel University of Valladolid. Spain.
Abstract The objective of the study is to aid decision-making necessary for the impulsion and development of electric vehicles in Spain, taking the time horizon of 2020. This will be achieved by building a System Dynamics model, which will be used for the analysis, comparison of various dynamic variables will influence how much, and how, in the number of electric vehicles that will run on Spanish roads in the coming years, by building various scenarios.
1.- Introduction Road transport today is responsible for a significant and growing share of global emissions of CO2. In 2008, the transport sector consumed the 38% of the total energy used in Spain. Within this, road transport still it is almost entirely dependent on oil-derived fuels (about 98%), therefore highly vulnerable to possible oil prices fluctuations, and supply disruptions. The transport sector is responsible of more than 25% of CO2 emissions in Spain, and road transport is responsible of 90% of CO2 emissions in this sector, with an energy consumption about the 80% of the sector [5]. Looking at these data, it is necessary a changing process in the automotive sector which involves a reduction in both CO2 emissions and energy consumption of vehicles running in Spain. It has been proposed a transition to EV (electrically-powered vehicles) because they have the potential for significant reductions in CO2 emissions. As expected, the change will not be easy. The task is certainly complex; changing consumer habits after many years using a kind of vehicle with a range of benefits that, in some way, will cease.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul This paper examines individuals motivations when purchasing vehicles, focusing upon what economics factors would encourage consumers to purchase an electrical vehicle or a conventional vehicle. This research attempts to ascertain whether, economically, reductions in fuel costs, reductions of mechanical damage to the engine (due to its simplicity), or green house gas emissions would encourage individuals to purchase an electric vehicle or a conventional vehicle in the next 10 years. To do this, we are going to consider the costs when acquiring the vehicle, but also the costs over the life of the vehicle (including the oil and electricity prices fluctuations, taxes, garage conditioning for recharging, etc), to determine the years of repayment of the purchase of an electric vehicle compared to a conventional vehicle.
2.- Work Methodology The methodology used in this project is the creation of a simulation model through which different policy options will be played in different scenarios, leading to different results. Due to the complexity of the model to create, and variety of interactions between its component variables, the research method used to create the model and its analysis is the System Dynamics. It is very important to be clear that System Dynamics is not a tool designed to predict the future, but is a tool to understand the present: to understand the variables that interact and how they can influence.
3.- General model description. Fig 1 shows a general vision of the model’s blocks and the interrelations between them.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Environmen t
Electric Vehicle Manufacture
Government Decisions
Electric Vehicle Demand
Electric Vehicle Costs
Technology Evolution
Electric Vechicle Atractive
Figure 1: General Model schema Initially there is a demand for the electric vehicles. The vehicles manufacturing must satisfy this demand. For the study, they are considered the vehicles that will be manufactured for the Spanish market, no matter the country they were manufactured. As the number of vehicles manufactured increases, the electric vehicles park will grow too, which clearly affect to CO2 emissions included in the environmental block, and the policies that the Government can take in either form of subsidies, special cargo rates, increasing the number of charging points, etc. The Government’s policies will also be influenced by the environmental block, since the subsidies will be amended to reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. The Government’s policies will significantly influence the cost that the potential customer will perceive when purchasing electric vehicles, due to subsidies, and the costs over
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul the life of the vehicle by overnight charge reduced rates, etc. In addition, the Government's policies will also affect the attractiveness of electric vehicles for the consumer, regarded to a conventional vehicle. This is motivated by the advantages or disadvantages it may have to buy an electric vehicle, such as the lack of charging points, the cost of recharging the electric vehicle, etc. Both the cost of electric vehicle as their attractiveness to the consumer, will be directly related to the evolution that the technology of electric vehicles will have in the coming years. This is because a very important part of the purchase price of electric vehicles is the battery, and one of the main factors of concern for potential buyers is the autonomy they have. To close the loop, the electric vehicle demand will evolve over time, influenced by the costs which the vehicle is for the buyer (in the initial time of purchase, and throughout the life of the vehicle), and the attractiveness of it. It is interesting to note that, in global terms, the evolution of the technologies associated with electric vehicle will be also influenced by the demand for it. In this study is not considered in this way, since the demand for electric vehicles in Spain is a very small proportion in comparison to global demand, which will be motivating technological advances in this field. The same happens with other blocks, that is, the system being treated is not an isolated system. The global market for electric vehicles will influence the system, but for this study, we have considered various data as exogenous variables, ie the value of these variables is determined by factors not included in the model being used. According to this, we can determine that the study covers worldwide developments.
4.- Block: Electric vehicle cost
Although in the full study are treated all the blocks, for this paper is only going to be explained the block containing the electric vehicle costs and its comparison with the conventional vehicle. This model’s block, tries to analyze the costs of electric vehicles and conventional vehicle costs, both at the purchasing time by the customer, and during the lifetime of the vehicle. To do this, data will be considered as an evolution of oil prices and electricity, maintenance costs, etc. The model has been divided into 4 sections: purchasing cost of the electric vehicle, the cost of ownership of the electric vehicle during its life, purchasing cost of the conventional
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul vehicle, and the cost of ownership of the conventional vehicle during its life. The total cost of electric vehicles will consist of the sum of the purchasing cost and the running costs of electric vehicles. In the same way, the total cost of conventional vehicles will consist of the sum of the purchasing cost and the running costs of conventional vehicles. The figure 2 shows a summary of the overall functioning of the block.
Purcharsing cost of the Convencional Vehicle
Anual cost of the Convencional Vehicle Total Convencional Vehicle Cost
Total Electric Vechicle Cost Purchasing cost of the Electric Vehicle
Anual cost of the Electric Vehicle
Figure 2: Diagram of the electric vehicle cost
The simplest section corresponds to the purchasing cost of conventional vehicle by the customer. The conventional vehicles that can potentially compete with electric vehicles are relatively compact, so that, based on statistical data and purchasing trends in Spain, a reference price has been set for the conventional vehicle. Once set the reference value of the conventional vehicle, the purchasing cost of electric vehicles will be determined by the reference value of the conventional vehicle, adding some kind of costs, but also eliminating others costs. The next fig. shows a simplified schema of the electric vehicle [13].
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 3: Electric Vehicle schema The most significant additional costs of electric vehicles will be the necessary wiring and charger for charging both slowly and rapidly recharge the vehicle [6], and the different transmission that is necessary, and of course, the most significant value will be the cost of the batteries. According to the information available [6], in Spain the extra charger and wiring costs, will be worth about 480 €, while the cost of transmission will be 160 €. In contrast, the motor simplification leads to a reduction of product cost. It is estimated that a gasoline engine, will cost about 2,400 €, while the electric motor only costs € 1,200, so that there is an interesting reduction. One of the key factors in the evolution of the purchasing price of electric vehicles will be the evolution of the batteries costs will have in the coming years. To forecast these developments, there has been a model including forecasted values of the reducing cost of kWh, and the evolution that the battery capacity will suffer in the coming years in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios [4], developed in the Technology Block. For its calculation it is also necessary to know the battery capacity, the price is going to cost manufacture the battery. For the cost estimate, we have used a graph of the expected price per kWh reduction will happen in the next 10 years. To do this, we used the following [2]:
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 4: Forecast of the battery price. As can be seen in the graph, there are several scenarios for the cost of batteries, but what is quite clear is that it provides a very significant decrease in the cost of the batteries. So far, the decline in the cost of the batteries has been given by a decrease between 6% and 8% per year [2]. Many analysts predict the price will continue falling in the next 10 years the same way due to increased production volumes. A cost that has also been considered for this study is the upgrading cost the garage in appropriate cases, to be able to recharge the battery in it. Taking into account the potential population who live in apartment buildings, in single-family houses, and the Spanish law, the upgrading cost will vary significantly. According to a RACE study [8], 80% of the population would choose the night time to charge electric vehicles, so that is assumed to simplify the model in these early years of commercialization of electric vehicles, a customer acquiring an electric vehicle, will also put his garage putting a load on it. At this point it will be very important to know if the available garage is Individual or is community, since it weighs charging system is similar, the method of calculation of electricity consumption is very different. This is because in an individual garage all electricity consumed (either by charging an electric vehicle or having a computer connected air conditioner for example) will be billed to a single consumer. In contrast, in the community garage is necessary to discriminate the source of consumption in order to be charged. According to data from the INE (National Institue of Statistics) the 28% of the population lives in a single-family house, while the 72% live in a building. While not 100% of
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul the population has a garage, this study has ignored that fact, since according to all surveys [8], the potential client has a garage. The figure 5 shows a diagram configuration example for recharging batteries in the garage [2]
Figure 5: Garage recharging system In a garage of a single-family house is simply necessary to have a 230V and 16A household outlet. Due to this, the cost has been estimated to be approximately 100 € [9], since the plug will be needed to garages that are available and will have to complete a minimum packaging. In the case of collective garages system is slightly more complex. While the law already authorizes and provides facilities such collective garages (Law 49/1960, of July 21), in this case as well as having a plug of similar dimensions to those of Individual garage are needed in a counter to discriminate the source of consumption. Thus, the residents pay the total electricity consumed, then that cost is distributed among users of existing electric vehicles in proportion to their consumption. However, in anticipation of widespread recharging of electric vehicles in collective garages, several brands of electric circuits are beginning to market solutions for collective garages such as monitoring systems chargers interface, or in its most simple individual refueling points are activated by a reader user, which will eliminate potential vandalism. In view of the electrical systems installed in the garage, it is logical that the cost of installation will be very superior to the Individual garage. In the light of actual budgets, and taking into account the need for the implementation of a certification to be a new installation,
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul the estimated average cost of 900 € in preparation for community garage for charging electric vehicle [11]. As a final factor to consider in the purchase price of electric vehicles, are the subsidies that the government can give at the specific time of purchase. For this calculation, we use three interrelated variables: the value of the subsidy, the budget that the IDAE (Spanish Energy Institute) can spend on subsidies for the purchase [5], and finally, the money already being spent on subsidies. Currently, have been taken as subsidy to purchase 7.000 euros [5] which is the average subsidy for this type of vehicle in Spain. The government budget is 240 million euros in 2011 and 2012. Since 2012, no data or estimations of subsidies to be delivered. Once established the purchasing costs in both vehicles, now it's necessary to determinate the running costs, that in both cases are mainly the cost of fuel (and the consumption of it) and the cost of vehicle maintenance. For the conventional vehicle, the analysis of the annual fuel consumption begins with the average consumption of a internal combustion vehicle today in Spain, taking into account the average consumption of diesel and gasoline vehicles, as well as the percentage of population using every kind of vehicle. It is considered that the average consumption of a gasoline engine is 8 liters per 100 km, while the average consumption of a diesel vehicle is 6 liters per 100 km [1]. Given that in Spain, 53% of vehicles are gasoline, and diesel 47% [10], the current average consumption of an internal combustion vehicle is the product of the consumption of gasoline vehicles by their percentage product, added to the consumption of diesel vehicles multiplied by their percentage. After obtaining a reference data, have been added some improvements in the efficiency of the engines will be developed in coming years and aerodynamic improvements that will change dynamically the vehicle consumption [6]: Estimate how will be the evolution of oil prices over the next 10 years is a task of great complexity and a high rate of failure. The price of oil depends on many factors. There are few reserves in the world and is a scarce commodity. In addition, there is a mismatch between supply and demand. Another important factor to consider are the large financial speculation, apart from existing geo-political conditions (oil may rise political situations involving producing countries). The following figure shows the evolution of oil prices in recent decades. It shows the great variability of the price and complexity of this development model mathematically. [14]
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 6: Oil price evolution However, to obtain a more realistic model has not wanted to leave the fixed oil price (the value at the beginning of 2010) but rather evolve over the simulation [7]. The forecast values in oil prices in dollars are: YEAR
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
PRICE
70,30
73,06
79,41
85,74
90,91
94,52
98,23
101,23
104,41
106,47
108,28
To this oil price, has to be added the tax regulations fixed at the Spanish legislation, as well as transport and the profit margin of gas stations. According to data from "Market Observatory for Energy" [7], indirect taxes for gasoline are € 436.47 per 1000 liters, while for diesel fuels are € 340.36 per 1000 liters. The I.V.A. tax in Spain is the 18%, and the profit margin of gas stations in Spain is about the 25%. Finally, we estimated the maintenance costs that conventional vehicles will be on an annual basis. For this, we have estimated the maintenance costs than a conventional vehicle has over its useful life, and has made relative to the number of kilometers that makes up being replaced. The value obtained is 0.03 € per kilometer covered [1]. If this value is multiplied by the average annual kilometers traveled by a vehicle, will result an economic value that the customer spends on an annual basis due to the conventional vehicle maintenance. For the running costs of the electric vehicle, the schema is similar to conventional vehicle: There is an annual cost because the vehicle consumption, and other costs due to vehicle maintenance. The annual cost due to the electric vehicle consumption is calculated based on the electricity’s price, but it's necessary take into account various considerations: The numbers of
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul users that will have an conditioned garage, the numbers of user that will recharge by night, by day, the driving patterns [2], etc. First consideration is to assume that most users who have electric vehicles, will have a garage (as seen before), and most of them (80% [8]) loaded the car at night. This value also is supported by studies in pilot positions in analyzing the patterns of use of the electric vehicle and its load. So, the following graph shows the results of a study of "Idaho National Laboratory” [2].
Figure 7: Driving patterns Can be clearly seen how the majority of recharges are done during a period of not using the vehicle in nocturnal phase. According to this, we studied the prices of recharge during the day, the evening and at the reduced rate called “Tarifa Supervalle” given by the Government of Spain. The last rate is designed to support the loads of electric vehicles made during the night, and thereby improve the load curve as explained above, as is reflected in the “Strategy to Promote Electric Vehicle in Spain "[3]. Since there is no information yet on this rate, we estimated a maximum cost per kWh that would have this rate-calculated value being 50% of the cost of electricity during the night. It has been taken this value in a way certainly arbitrary, since as mentioned above, there is no information yet on this rate, but it is considered that this value of kWh, can achieve the results anticipated at this rate. With the values of all rates and the estimations of potential users of each rate, it has obtained the average electricity’s price. As happened with oil prices, obtain an estimate of the electricity’s price in Spain is extremely difficult, but for a more realistic model has been necessary to create this estimate.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul Neither can extrapolate data from the values of recent years, due to the continuous modification of the rates due to tariff deficit of the electrical system The tariff deficit is the difference between the actual cost of electricity production (both produce and transport and distribution) and the fixed rate. This generates a debt that accumulates every year. Because of this, the prices will suffer a fluctuation difficult to quantify. According to this, have been assumed an annual increase of 2% in the electricity’s price, which is applied on the average price calculated above. Finally, it’s necessary estimate the maintenance costs in the same way that conventional vehicles, this is, relative to the number of kilometers that makes up being replaced. The maintenance cost of an electric vehicle has throughout his life made relative to the number of kilometers that made until that is replaced is 0.02 € per kilometer covered [1].
By multiplying this value by the average annual miles traveled by a vehicle, you get the economic value that the customer spends annually by maintaining the electric vehicle. As can see, the maintenance cost per kilometer is significantly lower compared to the conventional vehicle (33% lower). This is because electric motors do not have a high variety of working parts which means that it is not necessary a continuous maintenance as exhaustive as in internal combustion engines. In fact, the electric motor has one moving part, the shaft, which is very reliable and requires little or no maintenance. Another important factor is the elimination of oil, which implies that it is not necessary to make periodic changes to it. In the electric vehicle drive systems do not exist, or fuel pumps, or injection, which also minimizes maintenance. The fact that the electric motor is simpler than internal combustion, reduce the risk of breakdowns in its simplicity. Once all input data have been determined and modeled, the output data is the number of years that the potential client takes to recoup their investment. This value will depend on the timeframe when purchases the vehicle. According the number of years for repayment, the purchase of electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicle, will have a different appeal to the potential customer, resulting in a percentage of the population that potentially will want to buy an electric vehicle in Spain. This result, added to the rest of the results of the other blocks of the model, will enable us to obtain the estimated number of vehicles that will run on Spanish roads in the coming years.
6.- Results
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul The first scenario to analyze corresponds to the baseline model, based on data we know today for Spain, that is, a forecast model in terms of the likely evolution of the batteries and the non-implementation of battery exchange stations [12] and with estimated average battery cost. We could say that is the reference state. To combine these data, it is assumed that government subsidies are going to be known to this day, that is, € 7.000 for the purchase. As for the cost of the battery, according to the average forecast in 2020 the cost per kWh will be close to 243 € [2], implying that a full battery will cost about 6.500 €.
Figure 8: Forecast of battery price in baseline model According to the model and the average forecasts in all fields, we find that the number of vehicles in 2020 would be around 700.000.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 9: Electric vehicles in Spanish roads Which involve a number of CO2 tons not emitted to the atmosphere of more than 6 million.
Figure 10: TON of CO2 no emitted
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul The following scenarios are designed to study the evolution of the cost of the battery will take next. As seen before, the cost of the battery will be decisive in the evolution of the electric vehicle demand. For the analysis of this battery development, will be consider two scenarios in addition to the baseline: the optimistic scenario with an annual decrease of 10% in kWh of the battery (corresponds to a major evolution of the electric vehicle sales worldwide make dramatically lower the cost of the battery due to mass production), and one pessimistic, with an annual decrease of 4% in the price of the battery (scenario represents a poor use of electric vehicles, where mass production batteries has failed to take off significantly for achieving a significant reduction in the price of it). The baseline scenario is a decrease of 7%. The following figure shows the cost of the battery in the various scenarios.
Figure 11: Forecast of battery cost in the optimistic, pessimistic and baseline scenarios. In these three cases, the electric vehicle fleet evolves as follows:
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 12: Electric vehicles in roads for the optimistic, pessimistic and baseline scenarios. Can be seen that the years 2013 until there is a clear difference between the various scenarios. This is because the battery capacity in these early years of commercialization of electric vehicles is relatively small (22 kWh). The value of kWh between scenarios in 2013 ranged between values of 364 and 442 €, i.e. about 80 € of difference, which increased by 22 kWh are approximately 1,700 €. As the battery is increasing in capacity, this price difference becomes more significant. This can be seen clearly in the graph of the average price of electric vehicles with the current values of the facilities.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 13: Electric vehicle price for the optimistic, pessimistic and baseline scenarios. As seen before, the price of the electric vehicle grows so much at 2012 due to the end of subsidies currently approved by the Spanish government. If government support is stopped as a subsidy for purchasing of electric vehicles, the targets are not met. The following figure shows the optimistic scenario of reducing the cost of the battery with respect to the objectives of government.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul Figure 14: Electric vehicle compared to the Government target for the optimist scenario without subsidies in 2013. If we keep constant the subsidies of 7.000 € in time for the optimistic scenario, we obtain the following results.
Figure 15: Electric vehicle compared to the Government target for the optimist scenario with subsidies until 2020. In this case, the results are well above the targets set, but with an exorbitant cost (close to 14.000 million euros). Performing various simulations, we can determine that in the optimistic scenario of reducing the cost of the battery, with a grant value of € 2.000 from 2012, achieved the objectives set by the government until at least 2016, and there is a slight difference in subsequent years, only to converge after 2020.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 16: Electric vehicle compared to the Government target for the optimist scenario with the optimal subsidies until 2020. For € 2.000 of subsidy, the total government expenditure will be slightly in excess of 3.000 million euros, which is a value quite consistent with the current government budget (remembering for the years 2011 and 2012 the budget was 240 million euros) without suffering an increase of it (which, moreover, it seems logical to increase, and expected increase in demand) would be 1,200 million euros. The case of the pessimistic scenario is quite different from optimistic about the value of the subsidies necessary to achieve the objectives. When using the estimated value of € 2.000 for the optimistic scenario, we find that until 2014, the goal is met, but as the battery will increase its capacity over time, demand for electric vehicle will decrease, since that the electric vehicle will lose competitiveness against conventional vehicle due to high additional costs.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul
Figure 17: Electric vehicle compared to the Government target for the pessimist scenario without subsidies until 2020. In this case the optimal value of the subsidies after making several simulations were obtained for values between 4.500 € and 5.000 €, implying a cost to the government of nearly 6.000 million euros in this type of grant.
Figure 18: Electric vehicle compared to the Government target for the pessimist scenario with the optimal subsidies until 2020.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul In view of the results, which can be determined taking into account the decrease in the cost of kWh battery that will exist in coming years, the value of the subsidies to be given to the purchase of electric vehicles will range from € 2.000 in optimistic case, up to 5.000 of the pessimist.
7.- Conclusions As seen in results, regardless of technological developments that may occur in the coming years, if government subsidies are limited to 2012, won’t be achieved the targets set for 2020, concerning the number of electric vehicles circulating on Spanish roads. As has been analyzed in the view of the results of different scenarios, for a good implementation of electric vehicles, will need to be a major expense of the government to subsidize the purchase. The acquisition of electric vehicles compared to conventional, has a cost which is not always accepted by the consumer (although it will be compensated for the use of the vehicle). In none of the scenarios discussed (even in the most optimistic scenario) are obtained the desired results if subsidies are paralyzed the potential buyer. While it is true that the value of the subsidies provided today will not be necessary in the near future, being able to significantly reduce this amount, appear necessary at least until 2020. In fact, the economic factor is so important that in the scenarios of evolution of autonomy, the potential client will prevail before the economic aspect of the vehicle autonomy. In fact, according to the results of the simulations, the customer will prefer a vehicle with less autonomy, but has a lower cost. Therefore, although there are significant technological improvements will remain necessary extra financial contribution when the vehicle is purchased.
8.- References [1] Cuadernos de Energía, nº 26, octubre de 2009. [2] Electrification Coalition (2009). Electrification Roadmap. Revolutionizing transportation and achieving energy security. [3] Estrategia integral para el impulso del vehículo eléctrico en España. [4] Hensley, Russell, Knupfer, Stefan, and Pinner, Dickon (2009). McKinsey Quarterly, nº 3. Electrifying cars: How three industries will evolve. [5] IDAE. Proyecto Movele. Proyecto piloto de demostración de viabilidad del vehículo eléctrico.
9th International Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics June 14-17, 2011, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul [6] MIT (2008). On the Road in 2035: Reducing Transportation’s Petroleum Consumption and GHG Emissions. [7] U.S. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2010. [9] http://www.alargador.org [10] http://www.dgt.es/portal/ [11] http://www.forococheselectricos.com [12] http://www.soitu.es/soitu/2008/10/13/medioambiente/1223914963_725195.html [13] http://www.eve.es/web/Eficiencia-Energetica/Transporte/El-cocheelectrico/Componentes-principales-de-un-vehiculo-electrico.aspx
