IT Vision Source Data
The Prospects for U.S.-Russian Collaboration after Ukraine
Matthew Fargo 1
Overview
U.S.-Russian relations are at a 25 year low Short-term prospects for new arms control efforts are poor Opportunities for collaboration continues to exist in other arenas Long-term prospects for arms control will depend on how we approach Russia going forward 2
Sources of Russian Resentment
Since the end of the Cold War: – NATO has expanded to Russia’s borders and promised eventual NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine – The U.S. supported the independence of Kosovo – The U.S. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty – The U.S. began deploying missile defenses in Europe 3
A New Russia?
4
Ethnic Russians in the Baltic States Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania 5
Geopolitical Rivalry by the Numbers Russia GDP (PPP): $2.55 trillion Government revenue: $439 billion 2012 military expenditures: 4.47% of GDP Deployed strategic nuclear warheads: 1512
United States GDP (PPP): $16.7 trillion Government revenue: $2.8 trillion 2012 military expenditures: 4.35% of GDP Deployed strategic nuclear warheads: 1585 Sources: CIA World Factbook, State Department 6
From Sanctions to Trade War First round – March 2014
Russian response
Reciprocal Travel bans travel bans
Second round – April 2014
Travel and individual business bans
Russian response
Restriction of future RD-180 rocket engine sales to civilian launches only
Third round – July 2014 to Present
Russian response
Sanctions on financial sector, ban Agricultural on future embargo military, oil totaling $17 billion and natural gas tech sales
7
European Energy Dependency
Source: Eurostat, EC 8
Previous Strategic Arms Control Treaties
Status
New START
SALT I
START I
SORT
Expired
Expired
Replaced by In Force New START
Deployed 6,000 Warhead NA Limit Deployed Delivery US: 1,710 1,600 USSR: 2,347 Vehicle Limit Expiration Oct. 1977
Dec. 2009
1,700-2,200 1,550
NA
700
Feb. 2011
Feb. 2021 9
Parallel Efforts in Nuclear Security Nongovernmental organizations
Government to government
Nuclear Knowledge Summit
Nuclear Security Summit
Industry buy-in, security culture and screening
Material security, equipment and training 10
Summary
U.S. interests can be served through engagement with Russia outside of strategic arms control Seizing these opportunities will require shifting our focus away from short-term gains toward long-term goals
11
Matthew Fargo 1
Overview
U.S.-Russian relations are at a 25 year low Short-term prospects for new arms control efforts are poor Opportunities for collaboration continues to exist in other arenas Long-term prospects for arms control will depend on how we approach Russia going forward 2
Sources of Russian Resentment
Since the end of the Cold War: – NATO has expanded to Russia’s borders and promised eventual NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine – The U.S. supported the independence of Kosovo – The U.S. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty – The U.S. began deploying missile defenses in Europe 3
A New Russia?
4
Ethnic Russians in the Baltic States Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania 5
Geopolitical Rivalry by the Numbers Russia GDP (PPP): $2.55 trillion Government revenue: $439 billion 2012 military expenditures: 4.47% of GDP Deployed strategic nuclear warheads: 1512
United States GDP (PPP): $16.7 trillion Government revenue: $2.8 trillion 2012 military expenditures: 4.35% of GDP Deployed strategic nuclear warheads: 1585 Sources: CIA World Factbook, State Department 6
From Sanctions to Trade War First round – March 2014
Russian response
Reciprocal Travel bans travel bans
Second round – April 2014
Travel and individual business bans
Russian response
Restriction of future RD-180 rocket engine sales to civilian launches only
Third round – July 2014 to Present
Russian response
Sanctions on financial sector, ban Agricultural on future embargo military, oil totaling $17 billion and natural gas tech sales
7
European Energy Dependency
Source: Eurostat, EC 8
Previous Strategic Arms Control Treaties
Status
New START
SALT I
START I
SORT
Expired
Expired
Replaced by In Force New START
Deployed 6,000 Warhead NA Limit Deployed Delivery US: 1,710 1,600 USSR: 2,347 Vehicle Limit Expiration Oct. 1977
Dec. 2009
1,700-2,200 1,550
NA
700
Feb. 2011
Feb. 2021 9
Parallel Efforts in Nuclear Security Nongovernmental organizations
Government to government
Nuclear Knowledge Summit
Nuclear Security Summit
Industry buy-in, security culture and screening
Material security, equipment and training 10
Summary
U.S. interests can be served through engagement with Russia outside of strategic arms control Seizing these opportunities will require shifting our focus away from short-term gains toward long-term goals
11
