Jim Oberkirsch Custom Gaming Consulting
Jim Oberkirsch Custom Gaming Consulting
1.
Local Market
2.
Casino Hotel Guests (Overnight Gamers)
3.
Washington D. C. Tourists
4.
Racing Patron Crossover
5.
Traffic Intercept
2
3
•
Residents living within a “reasonable drive” of the facility
•
Captures 4 major metropolitan areas
•
Segregated market into 38 manageable segments for the gravity model analysis
•
Summarized market into 18 territories for reporting and discussion purposes
4
1. Calculation of Market Gaming Revenue 2. Allocation of Market Gaming Revenue to
Competitive Set
5
Gamer Population
x
1,082,400
x
Propensity
38%
=
=
Gamers
406,500
x
x
Frequency
11
=
Gamer Visits
x
= 4,291,000 x
Win / Visit
$61
=
Gaming Revenue
= $263,500,000
• Propensity – Percentage of the gamer (adult) population that is expected to patronize an area gaming facility at least once per year; • Frequency – Average number of times per year a person with a propensity to patronize a gaming facility actually does so; • Win per Visit (“WPV”) – Average amount the casino wins per gaming visit. 6
Market Segments Maryland Southern Maryland Capital Region Baltimore South Baltimore Central Baltimore NW Eastern Shore Maryland Baltimore NE Western Maryland District of Columbia Arlington Virginia Western Virginia SW Virginia South Virginia SE West Virginia Delaware Pennsylvania New Jersey Total
Gamer Population
Propensity
Gamers
Frequency
Total Visits
Win / Visit
Gaming Revenue
600,100 1,245,400 517,700 1,082,400 312,700 265,100 258,900 163,600 541,000 1,211,500 431,100 433,700 1,277,100 87,100 133,200 697,500 3,660,800 893,200 13,812,100
26.4% 28.6% 31.5% 37.6% 29.4% 34.9% 35.6% 35.3% 28.7% 23.4% 27.1% 20.1% 14.4% 13.3% 38.8% 40.0% 36.0% 36.2% 30.6%
158,514 356,745 163,276 406,531 92,026 92,596 92,142 57,686 155,524 283,447 116,690 87,093 183,823 11,585 51,675 278,802 1,319,565 322,898 4,230,617
7.3 8.3 9.5 10.6 8.3 9.2 9.4 9.6 7.7 6.9 8.3 6.2 4.6 3.9 11.7 12.2 10.2 9.7 9.3
1,156,524 2,966,335 1,556,767 4,291,736 762,779 849,684 866,588 550,954 1,197,866 1,959,171 966,178 539,000 847,682 45,148 606,718 3,407,984 13,474,179 3,135,480 39,180,773
$98 $91 $82 $61 $90 $76 $75 $65 $91 $118 $96 $105 $114 $105 $56 $65 $68 $73 $77
$113,311,153 $269,925,290 $127,624,447 $263,501,904 $68,529,023 $64,657,494 $64,678,054 $36,012,003 $109,389,281 $230,923,037 $92,679,064 $56,762,772 $96,692,819 $4,727,969 $34,178,541 $222,337,726 $921,948,945 $228,563,100 $3,006,442,621
1.
Convenience of Gaming
2. Demographic
Characteristics 3. Size, Quality and Scope
of Gaming Alternatives
7
1. Location or the Convenience of Project
2. Breadth or Gravity of the Project
8
Drive Time Variances Origination From NE (via I-495) From S (via Hwy 210 or Hwy 5) From N (via I-295) From W (via Woodrow Wilson Bridge)
Most Convenient Rosecroft Parx MGM MGM
Rosecroft 8 2 3
MGM 2 7
Parx 6 3 4
Note 1: Values are in minutes based on Microsoft MapPoint Note 2: Values do not consider traffic delays
9
Rosecroft 3.7
Parx 4.4
* Based on a scale of 1 to 5.
MGM 4.5
1. On-Site Convenience
Characteristics 2. Size in terms of
Gaming Positions 3. Quality Level 4. Amenity Package
5. Promotional Level 6. Game Availability
10
Market Territories Maryland Southern Maryland Capital Region District of Columbia Arlington Virginia South Virginia SE All Other Segments Total
Rosecroft $73 $62 $68 $166 $82 $4 $50 $505
Parx MD $96 $56 $75 $189 $95 $6 $56 $573
$68 / 13%
MGM $88 $69 $86 $244 $102 $5 $65 $659
$87 / 15%
$155 / 31% 11
Market Growth Capture from MD Capture from DE Capture from WV Capture from PA Capture from NJ Total Total Capture
Rosecroft $208 $179 $34 $70 $13 $1 $505 $297
% of Total 41% 36% 7% 14% 3% 0% 100% 59%
Parx $262 $186 $37 $75 $13 $1 $573 $311
% of Total 46% 33% 6% 13% 2% 0% 100% 54%
MGM $312 $207 $40 $84 $15 $1 $659 $348
% of Total 47% 31% 6% 13% 2% 0% 100% 53%
12
Access Route From NE (via I-495) From S (via Hwy 210 or Hwy 5) From N (via I-295) From W (via Woodrow Wilson Bridge) Total
Rosecroft $93 $66 $68 $278 $505
Parx MD $45 $97 $112 $319 $573
MGM $62 $81 $130 $387 $659
% of Total: From NE (via I-495) From S (via Hwy 210 or Hwy 5) From N (via I-295) From W (via Woodrow Wilson Bridge) Total
18% 13% 13% 55% 100%
8% 17% 19% 56% 100%
9% 12% 20% 59% 100% 13
Room Count Occupancy Rate Room Night Demand Gamer Capture Rate Gamer RND Win / RN Gaming Revenue (millions)
Rosecroft 258 95% 89,500 82% 73,800 $274 $20.2
Parx 250 95% 86,700 80% 69,600 $276 $19.2
MGM 300 95% 104,000 69% 71,800 $263 $18.9
1. Casino Demand 2. Group Demand 3. FIT Demand
Room Night Demand by Category (% of total) Casino Demand Group Demand FIT Demand Other Total
Rosecroft 50% 0% 50% 0% 100%
Parx 45% 10% 45% 0% 100%
MGM 23% 37% 36% 4% 100%
14
Unique Tourists Gamer Capture Rate Gamer Visits Win / Gamer Gaming Revenue (millions)
Rosecroft 9,600,000 1.7% 161,800 $134 $21.6
Parx 9,600,000 1.9% 186,100 $135 $25.1
MGM 9,600,000 3.1% 299,400 $136 $40.8
•
Awareness due to Visibility
•
Convenience • Access • Comfort Level with Directions
•
Nearby Attractions
•
Unique Development
15
Racing Patron Crossover Revenue Est. Racetrack Attendance Crossover Rate Gamers Visits Win / Gamer Gaming Revenue (millions)
Rosecroft 137,225 20% 27,445 $65 $1.8
Traffic Intercept Revenue Annual Truck Volume Adults / Truck Total Adults Gamer Capture Rate Gamer Visits Win / Visit Gaming Revenue
Rosecroft 4,603,000 1.2 5,523,000 0.8% 44,185 $62 $2.7
16
Component Local Market Casino Hotel Overnight Tourist Racing Patron Crossover Traffic Intercept Total
Rosecroft $505 $20 $22 $2 $3 $551
Parx $573 $19 $25 $0 $0 $617
MGM $659 $19 $41 $0 $0 $719
% of Total: Local Market Casino Hotel Overnight Tourist Racing Patron Crossover Traffic Intercept Total
91.6% 3.7% 3.9% 0.3% 0.5% 100%
92.8% 3.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
91.7% 2.6% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 17
Impact Summary (millions) Rosecroft -----Maryland Properties
Prince George's County Horseshoe Baltimore Maryland Live Hollywood Perryville Ocean Downs Rocky Gap Net Impact Total Impact
Parx MD ------
MGM ------
Change
% Change
Change
% Change
Change
% Change
$551.3 -$59.0 -$113.8 -$5.5 -$0.5 -$0.6 $371.8 -$179
NM -12.2% -20.0% -6.7% -0.8% -1.1% 29.7%
$617.3 -$61.6 -$117.7 -$5.8 -$0.5 -$0.6 $431.0 -$186
NM -12.8% -20.7% -7.0% -0.8% -1.2% 34.4%
$719.2 -$68.4 -$130.8 -$6.5 -$0.6 -$0.7 $512.1 -$207
NM -14.2% -23.0% -7.8% -1.0% -1.4% 40.9%
18
No Change in Location or the Convenience of Projects Reevaluation of Gravity of the Projects Slots Count Impact Base Equalization Change % Change
Rosecroft 3,000 3,000 0 0%
Parx 4,750 3,000 -1,750 -37%
MGM 3,600 3,000 -600 -17%
Gravity Rating Adjustment * Base Equalization
Rosecroft 3.7 3.7
* Based on a scale of 1 to 5.
Parx 4.4 3.9
MGM 4.5 4.3 19
Base Equalization Change % Change
Rosecroft $551 $554 $3 1%
Parx $617 $556 -$61 -10%
MGM $719 $681 -$38 -5%
20
Cummings Custom Gaming Difference % Difference
Rosecroft $560 $551 -$9 -2%
Parx $682 $617 -$65 -10%
MGM $713 $719 $7 1%
21
Cummings Custom Gaming Difference % Difference
Rosecroft $566 $554 -$12 -2%
Parx $575 $556 -$19 -3%
MGM $660 $681 $21 3%
22
Applicant Consultant Average Difference % Difference
Rosecroft $413 $556 $143 35%
Parx $809 $650 -$159 -20%
MGM $688 $716 $28 4%
23
24
1.
Local Market
2.
Casino Hotel Guests (Overnight Gamers)
3.
Washington D. C. Tourists
4.
Racing Patron Crossover
5.
Traffic Intercept
2
3
•
Residents living within a “reasonable drive” of the facility
•
Captures 4 major metropolitan areas
•
Segregated market into 38 manageable segments for the gravity model analysis
•
Summarized market into 18 territories for reporting and discussion purposes
4
1. Calculation of Market Gaming Revenue 2. Allocation of Market Gaming Revenue to
Competitive Set
5
Gamer Population
x
1,082,400
x
Propensity
38%
=
=
Gamers
406,500
x
x
Frequency
11
=
Gamer Visits
x
= 4,291,000 x
Win / Visit
$61
=
Gaming Revenue
= $263,500,000
• Propensity – Percentage of the gamer (adult) population that is expected to patronize an area gaming facility at least once per year; • Frequency – Average number of times per year a person with a propensity to patronize a gaming facility actually does so; • Win per Visit (“WPV”) – Average amount the casino wins per gaming visit. 6
Market Segments Maryland Southern Maryland Capital Region Baltimore South Baltimore Central Baltimore NW Eastern Shore Maryland Baltimore NE Western Maryland District of Columbia Arlington Virginia Western Virginia SW Virginia South Virginia SE West Virginia Delaware Pennsylvania New Jersey Total
Gamer Population
Propensity
Gamers
Frequency
Total Visits
Win / Visit
Gaming Revenue
600,100 1,245,400 517,700 1,082,400 312,700 265,100 258,900 163,600 541,000 1,211,500 431,100 433,700 1,277,100 87,100 133,200 697,500 3,660,800 893,200 13,812,100
26.4% 28.6% 31.5% 37.6% 29.4% 34.9% 35.6% 35.3% 28.7% 23.4% 27.1% 20.1% 14.4% 13.3% 38.8% 40.0% 36.0% 36.2% 30.6%
158,514 356,745 163,276 406,531 92,026 92,596 92,142 57,686 155,524 283,447 116,690 87,093 183,823 11,585 51,675 278,802 1,319,565 322,898 4,230,617
7.3 8.3 9.5 10.6 8.3 9.2 9.4 9.6 7.7 6.9 8.3 6.2 4.6 3.9 11.7 12.2 10.2 9.7 9.3
1,156,524 2,966,335 1,556,767 4,291,736 762,779 849,684 866,588 550,954 1,197,866 1,959,171 966,178 539,000 847,682 45,148 606,718 3,407,984 13,474,179 3,135,480 39,180,773
$98 $91 $82 $61 $90 $76 $75 $65 $91 $118 $96 $105 $114 $105 $56 $65 $68 $73 $77
$113,311,153 $269,925,290 $127,624,447 $263,501,904 $68,529,023 $64,657,494 $64,678,054 $36,012,003 $109,389,281 $230,923,037 $92,679,064 $56,762,772 $96,692,819 $4,727,969 $34,178,541 $222,337,726 $921,948,945 $228,563,100 $3,006,442,621
1.
Convenience of Gaming
2. Demographic
Characteristics 3. Size, Quality and Scope
of Gaming Alternatives
7
1. Location or the Convenience of Project
2. Breadth or Gravity of the Project
8
Drive Time Variances Origination From NE (via I-495) From S (via Hwy 210 or Hwy 5) From N (via I-295) From W (via Woodrow Wilson Bridge)
Most Convenient Rosecroft Parx MGM MGM
Rosecroft 8 2 3
MGM 2 7
Parx 6 3 4
Note 1: Values are in minutes based on Microsoft MapPoint Note 2: Values do not consider traffic delays
9
Rosecroft 3.7
Parx 4.4
* Based on a scale of 1 to 5.
MGM 4.5
1. On-Site Convenience
Characteristics 2. Size in terms of
Gaming Positions 3. Quality Level 4. Amenity Package
5. Promotional Level 6. Game Availability
10
Market Territories Maryland Southern Maryland Capital Region District of Columbia Arlington Virginia South Virginia SE All Other Segments Total
Rosecroft $73 $62 $68 $166 $82 $4 $50 $505
Parx MD $96 $56 $75 $189 $95 $6 $56 $573
$68 / 13%
MGM $88 $69 $86 $244 $102 $5 $65 $659
$87 / 15%
$155 / 31% 11
Market Growth Capture from MD Capture from DE Capture from WV Capture from PA Capture from NJ Total Total Capture
Rosecroft $208 $179 $34 $70 $13 $1 $505 $297
% of Total 41% 36% 7% 14% 3% 0% 100% 59%
Parx $262 $186 $37 $75 $13 $1 $573 $311
% of Total 46% 33% 6% 13% 2% 0% 100% 54%
MGM $312 $207 $40 $84 $15 $1 $659 $348
% of Total 47% 31% 6% 13% 2% 0% 100% 53%
12
Access Route From NE (via I-495) From S (via Hwy 210 or Hwy 5) From N (via I-295) From W (via Woodrow Wilson Bridge) Total
Rosecroft $93 $66 $68 $278 $505
Parx MD $45 $97 $112 $319 $573
MGM $62 $81 $130 $387 $659
% of Total: From NE (via I-495) From S (via Hwy 210 or Hwy 5) From N (via I-295) From W (via Woodrow Wilson Bridge) Total
18% 13% 13% 55% 100%
8% 17% 19% 56% 100%
9% 12% 20% 59% 100% 13
Room Count Occupancy Rate Room Night Demand Gamer Capture Rate Gamer RND Win / RN Gaming Revenue (millions)
Rosecroft 258 95% 89,500 82% 73,800 $274 $20.2
Parx 250 95% 86,700 80% 69,600 $276 $19.2
MGM 300 95% 104,000 69% 71,800 $263 $18.9
1. Casino Demand 2. Group Demand 3. FIT Demand
Room Night Demand by Category (% of total) Casino Demand Group Demand FIT Demand Other Total
Rosecroft 50% 0% 50% 0% 100%
Parx 45% 10% 45% 0% 100%
MGM 23% 37% 36% 4% 100%
14
Unique Tourists Gamer Capture Rate Gamer Visits Win / Gamer Gaming Revenue (millions)
Rosecroft 9,600,000 1.7% 161,800 $134 $21.6
Parx 9,600,000 1.9% 186,100 $135 $25.1
MGM 9,600,000 3.1% 299,400 $136 $40.8
•
Awareness due to Visibility
•
Convenience • Access • Comfort Level with Directions
•
Nearby Attractions
•
Unique Development
15
Racing Patron Crossover Revenue Est. Racetrack Attendance Crossover Rate Gamers Visits Win / Gamer Gaming Revenue (millions)
Rosecroft 137,225 20% 27,445 $65 $1.8
Traffic Intercept Revenue Annual Truck Volume Adults / Truck Total Adults Gamer Capture Rate Gamer Visits Win / Visit Gaming Revenue
Rosecroft 4,603,000 1.2 5,523,000 0.8% 44,185 $62 $2.7
16
Component Local Market Casino Hotel Overnight Tourist Racing Patron Crossover Traffic Intercept Total
Rosecroft $505 $20 $22 $2 $3 $551
Parx $573 $19 $25 $0 $0 $617
MGM $659 $19 $41 $0 $0 $719
% of Total: Local Market Casino Hotel Overnight Tourist Racing Patron Crossover Traffic Intercept Total
91.6% 3.7% 3.9% 0.3% 0.5% 100%
92.8% 3.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100%
91.7% 2.6% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100% 17
Impact Summary (millions) Rosecroft -----Maryland Properties
Prince George's County Horseshoe Baltimore Maryland Live Hollywood Perryville Ocean Downs Rocky Gap Net Impact Total Impact
Parx MD ------
MGM ------
Change
% Change
Change
% Change
Change
% Change
$551.3 -$59.0 -$113.8 -$5.5 -$0.5 -$0.6 $371.8 -$179
NM -12.2% -20.0% -6.7% -0.8% -1.1% 29.7%
$617.3 -$61.6 -$117.7 -$5.8 -$0.5 -$0.6 $431.0 -$186
NM -12.8% -20.7% -7.0% -0.8% -1.2% 34.4%
$719.2 -$68.4 -$130.8 -$6.5 -$0.6 -$0.7 $512.1 -$207
NM -14.2% -23.0% -7.8% -1.0% -1.4% 40.9%
18
No Change in Location or the Convenience of Projects Reevaluation of Gravity of the Projects Slots Count Impact Base Equalization Change % Change
Rosecroft 3,000 3,000 0 0%
Parx 4,750 3,000 -1,750 -37%
MGM 3,600 3,000 -600 -17%
Gravity Rating Adjustment * Base Equalization
Rosecroft 3.7 3.7
* Based on a scale of 1 to 5.
Parx 4.4 3.9
MGM 4.5 4.3 19
Base Equalization Change % Change
Rosecroft $551 $554 $3 1%
Parx $617 $556 -$61 -10%
MGM $719 $681 -$38 -5%
20
Cummings Custom Gaming Difference % Difference
Rosecroft $560 $551 -$9 -2%
Parx $682 $617 -$65 -10%
MGM $713 $719 $7 1%
21
Cummings Custom Gaming Difference % Difference
Rosecroft $566 $554 -$12 -2%
Parx $575 $556 -$19 -3%
MGM $660 $681 $21 3%
22
Applicant Consultant Average Difference % Difference
Rosecroft $413 $556 $143 35%
Parx $809 $650 -$159 -20%
MGM $688 $716 $28 4%
23
24
