Jonathon Peros Council Staff
Jonathon Peros Council Staff
Gloucester, MA September 28, 2017 1
Outline of Presentation: Review of 2017 scallop survey results and specification
alternatives under development for FY2018 (FW29) No Council Action Required.
Review of management measures under development in
FW29. No Council Action Required.
2
Summary of 2017 surveys Very successful survey season – 5 separate survey
group 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
VIMS dredge survey of MA, NLS, and CA II SMAST intensive survey of CA I, CA II, ET, broadscale of GB and MA WHOI HabCam v5 survey of the Northern Edge CFF HabCam v3 survey of NLS NEFSC dredge of GB and Habcam v4 of MA and GB Surveys of GOM presented under NGOM agenda item
High level findings (Doc.3c, 3d): Total biomass expected to increase from 2016 (~600 million lbs). Roughly half of total biomass projected to be exploitable in 2018. ACL could increase in FY 2018, set by SSC Oct. 12, 2017. No strong signals of incoming recruitment observed throughout the
resource. 3
VIMS surveys 3 Surveys conducted from early
May to mid July (MA, NLS, CA II) 659 dredge tows (440 MAB, 115 in NLCA and 100 in CA II) Sampling intensity of SH:MW ~5,500 samples in MA and ~1,000 samples for both the NLS & CAII II Slower growth rates in ET Closed and southern portion of NLS No strong signals of incoming recruitment. Findings consistent with 2015 and 2016 survey campaigns
NLS
CAII
Mid-Atlantic
4
CAI
SMAST survey GB & MA Broadscale, high-res
surveys of ET, CAI, CAII 2,875 total stations on 9 cruises from April - July New: Imperx DSC camera CA I – high densities of 7yo animals in “sliver” High densities in ET-Flex, NLS-S, NLS-NA, and parts of NLS-ext Slow growth in high density areas Recruits (>75mm) detected along western boundary of ET & DMV, also in CAII ext, and LI
CAII ET High density of scallops in Nantucket Lightship
Source: SMAST
5
WHOI HabCam v5 survey of the
Northern Edge in partnership with Lund’s Fisheries Area included Northeast Reduced Impact Habitat Management Area, the Northeast Habitat Management Area, and eastern Georges Shoal. Exploitable scallops concentrated in the northern portion of the survey area. Data suggests there are several cohorts of scallops within the footprint of the survey. Source: WHOI
6
NLS-N
CFF
NLS-NA
Survey NLS using HabCam v3 July 15 – July 22 F/V Kathy Marie ~875 miles of transects, ~10,000
NLS-S annotated images (1/400) High densities and majority of biomass in the NLS-S and NLS-NA Majority of animals in NLS-N are ≥100mm Localized aggregation of scallops in NLSext may be driving estimate Findings generally consistent with VIMS and SMAST surveys
NLS-Ext
7
NEFSC Survey Four legs from May - June 128 dredge tows on GB HabCam v4 coverage of GB and MA,
over 8 million images taken, estimates based on ~160,000 manually annotated (1/50) Lack of incoming recruitment, some along northern edge High densities of 5yo scallops in NLS, NLS-ext, HC, and ET Slow growth in high density areas remains an issue
Photo Credit: NOAA Fisheries – Robert Johnson
High Density in ET-Flex. Photo Credit: NEFSC
8
Status, Updates: Similar story to 2016 (FW28). Continued slow growth in high density areas. As with 2016 process, PDT recommending adjustments to SH/MW and growth parameters using data from 16/17 surveys. Dredge efficiency in high density areas remains an issue. General agreement between optical surveys when the dredge estimate is much lower. Lack of strong recruitment in recent years. Nothing in the
pipeline in open areas for the foreseeable future. PDT reviewed 2018 exploitable biomass estimates on Monday (September 25, 2017). SSC meets to review OFLs and ABCs on October 12, 2017. 9
Survey biomass estimates: General agreement of dredge, drop camera, and HabCam
biomass estimates when high density areas are excluded: ET-Flex, NLS-S, and NLS-NA
Dredge
Source:VIMS
124,592 mt
Drop Cam
Source: SMAST
131,501 mt
HabCam
Source: CFF
135,076 mt 10
Closed Area II and Extension Potential access to CA II in FY 2018. Preliminary 2018 biomass estimates suggest it would require combining CA II AA and CA II ext. Bycatch of yellowtail flounder will continue to be an issue. May consider different seasonal closure of CAII-ext
3yo cohort in CAII-ext likely to recruit into fishery.
11
Closed Area I 7 year old animals were observed in
the "sliver" area
“Sliver” is not currently available to
fishery – awaiting OHA2 Measures in FW29 to reconfigure boundary
Meat samples appeared generally
healthy, though quality may be issue as animals get older. The PDT supports access if boundary is expanded to include the "sliver" area. Future CA I AA access should address carryover trips which are already on the books (~1.5 million lbs.).
NW corner of CAI sliver. Photo Credit: NEFSC
12
NLS-S – high density, small size
~60mm
~90mm Shells from VIMS
5 YO scallops average 77 mm. Large variation in size across
space. Reality is that there is a huge biomass of high count scallops with a finite scope of growth in marginal habitat.
100 mm
Red: 2017 Projected Blue: 2017 Observed
Nantucket Lightship NLS-No Access Commercial = 104.72 mm Survey = 102.44 mm 2018 Exploitable at F=0.38: ~18 million lbs (preliminary) NOT AVAILABLE – Still Closure
NLS-North Commercial = 126.8 mm Survey = 110.91 mm 2018 Exploitable at F=0.38: ~2.9 million lbs (preliminary) Majority of 2017 effort here. Holds the largest animals.
NLS-South Commercial = 85.53 mm Survey = 77.07 mm 2018 Exploitable at F=0.38: ~18.6 million lbs (preliminary) Faster growth in >70m
NLS-Extension Commercial = 121.88 mm Survey = 106.72 mm 2018 Exploitable at F=0.38: ~4 million lbs (preliminary) VERY UNCERTAIN
2017 Effort – Hours Fished
Mid-Atlantic AA The MAAA can likely support
multiple trips in 2018 Potential growth issues in high density areas of the ET-Flex that impact expectation of size in 2018 2015 0.20
Blob n= 80,810
Flex n= 78,798
0.15
Mean Length = 48.78 mm
Mean Length = 69.73 mm
2016 ET Biomass Estimates
0.10 0.05 0.00 Fraction of Total
2016 0.20
Blob n= 61,678
Flex n= 11,780
0.15
MeanLength = 74.47 mm
Mean Length = 87.93 mm
0.10 0.05 0.00
2017 0.20
Blob n= 55,260
Flex n= 6,425
0.15
Mean Length = 80.48 mm
Mean Length = 89.38 mm
0.10 0.05 0.00 0
50
100
150
Length Interval (mm) Blob Area
Mean Length Blob
Flex Area
Mean Length Flex
15
Specifications Tasking Committee tasking for two spatial management
configurations (see following slides) 5 access area trips proposed in both runs, 2 F rates 4 total runs
Committee tasking to develop an alternative that would
allocate a trip to fish on the slow growing animals in NLS-S. Committee tasking to evaluate DAS harvest that would allow
for constant open bottom harvest for four years. 16
Committee Tasking to PDT (Doc.5) Motion #1b Specifications Run of AAs, and a range of approaches for open areas. RED – Potential Rotational Closure GREEN – Potential Access
CAII CAI NLS
Hudson Canyon
1 trip in NLS, NLS-ext becomes open bottom
1 trip in CAII (may require ext) Seasonal closure of ext to protect YT
Elephant Trunk
Delmarva
3 trips in the MAAA, remove “flex” boundary Make Delmarva open area
5 total AA trips, Set DAS using F=0.48, F=0.4
17
Committee Tasking to PDT (Doc.5) Motion #1a Specifications Run of AAs, and a range of approaches for open areas. RED – Potential Rotational Closure GREEN – Potential Access
1 trip in CAI (AA includes CAI and CAI N)
CAII CAI NLS
Hudson Canyon
1 trip in NLS, AA would include NLS-NA
1 trip CAII (AA includes CAII and CAII ext)
Elephant Trunk
Delmarva
1trip in the MAAA, 1 trip in the ET “Flex”
5 total AA trips, Set DAS using F=0.48, F=0.4
18
Framework 29 FW29 initiated at April Council Meeting Likely range of alternatives: Specifications Northern Gulf of Maine TAC, management measures Flatfish Accountability Measures OHA2 – Modify boundaries to facilitate access
Simple Increased likelihood FW in place for April 1.
19
Specifications FY2018 and Default
measures for FY2019 FY starts on April 1 ABC/ACLs Access area allocations General Category IFQ LA DAS allocations TAC for NGOM Set-asides 20
FW29: Northern Gulf of Maine Doc. #2c, #3c, and materials from Aug. 29/30 PDT meeting Problem Statement developed at April Council meeting. Committee tasking in June and September. PDT discussion earlier this week. Results from 2017 survey work. Simple Increased likelihood FW in place for April 1.
21
SMAST Survey of Stellwagen Bank F/V Guidance, July 7 - 13 Imprex DSC Drop Camera on
1.5km grid No signs of incoming recruitment Mean SH: 103mm Total Biomass estimate 800,000 lbs (365mt, SE 69mt)
Total Exploitable Biomass 500,000 lbs (228mt, SE 44 mt)
22
Legend Survey Tracks Proposed survey tracks
NGoM VMS NGoM VMS
CFF survey Stellwagen Bank and Jeffreys
Ledge on July 8th & 9th, 2017 HabCam V3, 90nm, 400k images Annotation rate: 1:200
0 1 2
4
6
8 Miles
Esri, DeLorme, GEBCO, NOAA NGDC, and other contributors, Sources: Esri, GEBCO, NOAA, National Geographic, DeLorme, HERE, Geonames.org, and other contributors
6 dredge tows on Stellwagen No strong signals of recruitment Stellwagen Biomass estimate ~1 mil. lbs (459mt, SE 54mt) Jeffreys Ledge Biomass 335,000 lbs (152mt, SE 35 mt)
23
2016 NGOM Survey Results Mean estimate (lbs) % of total Machias-Seal Island MDI Platts Bank Ipswich Bay Jeffreys Ledge Stellwagen Bank Total Number per tow 0 1-30 31-100 101-200 200+
348,000 5,357 335,522 175,841 635,086 2,140,137 3,639,942
9.6% 0.1% 9.2% 4.8% 17.4% 58.8%
• Biomass expected to increase with annual growth. • ~75% of estimated biomass on Stellwagen Bank and Jefferys Ledge, ~25% in other survey areas • Jeffreys Ledge surveyed after fishing in 2016, Stellwagen 24 surveyed while fishing occurring.
ME DMR/UMaine survey Objective: Project growth in areas that
were surveyed in 2016, but not fished in 2016 or 2017. EX: Ipswich Bay, Platts Bank 2018 outlook: Several hundred thousand lbs in areas that were not fished in 16/17. High level of uncertainty around these projections. Highest densities remain on Stellwagen Bank, 2018 fishing effort expected to remain in this area. PDT recommends setting 2018 TAC based on exploitable biomass on Stellwagen Bank (i.e. do not include these estimates in TAC setting).
2016
Platts Bank
2017 2018
25
NGOM Problem Statement: Problem: Unknown biomass and recent high landings Goal: Understanding total removals and improving management Fishery Data
Survey Set limit/cap overall removals LAGC TAC
LA limit 26
NGOM TAC Consideration #1: 1. How to distribute removals between groups? NGOM TAC is not part of annual projected landings Committee tasking motion for Hybrid approach see Doc.2c, and Committee Motions
Rationale: Short term “band-aid”; current LA TAC in area: no limit Fishery Data
Survey Set limit/cap overall removals LAGC TAC
How to distribute removals between groups?
LA limit 27
NGOM TAC Consideration #1: “Hybrid Approach” Committee Tasking Motion 4a.
NGOM TAC Example: 200,000 lbs
1. Initial portion of TAC to GC
(“floor”) – 70,000 lbs First 70,000 lbs to LAGC 2. Remainder of TAC split between GC and LA – 50/50 Remaining TAC (130,000 lbs) split: 3. See rationale 50/50 Example TAC split
LA TAC: 65,000 lbs
GC TAC: 135,000 lbs
28
NGOM TAC Consideration #1: “Hybrid Approach” Committee Tasking Motion 4b.
NGOM TAC Example: 200,000 lbs
1. Initial portion of TAC to GC
(“floor”) – 95,000 lbs First 95,000 lbs to LAGC 2. Remainder of TAC split between GC and LA – 25/75 Remaining TAC (105,000 lbs) split: 3. See rationale. 75 (LA) / 25 (GC) Example TAC split
LA TAC: 78,750 lbs
GC TAC: 121,250 lbs
29
NGOM TAC Consideration #2: 2. Develop harvest approach for LA component.
Council motion calls for status quo regs for LAGC. Overall TAC may inform what approaches are feasible.
PDT discussion:
LA limit (TAC)
VMS declaration, trips DAS exchange Make lbs eligible for
RSA compensation fishing
Harvest Approach i: DAS exchange for declared trip to the area.
Harvest Approach ii: RSA compensation fishing
PDT met on Monday – planning to continue development ahead of Oct. meetings 30
Flatfish AMs Committee tasking motion from June: Focus on gear modifications (5-row apron and 1.5:1
hanging ratio), potentially consider seasonal closures
Focus on three stocks: Northern windowpane (regulatory requirement) Georges Bank yellowtail SNE/MA yellowtail
PDT is developing potential measures 31
GB Yellowtail
250
As of early September 2017: 200 Scallop fishery has exceeded sub-ACL for FY2017 150 99% of YT bycatch from CAII CAII landings at 82% of projected catch (5.8 mil. lbs) 100 Groundfish:16.8% of sub-ACL (27.4 mt), offshore spring fishery 50 Scallop AM does not trigger unless total ACL is exceeded 0
ACL: 201mt
127 mt
Projected Catch: 63 mt 27.4 mt Scallop Sub-ACL: 32 mt 45.9 mt
2017 Catch 32
Flatfish AM development No tasking from Scallop Committee in September. PDT is developing potential measures based on calculations of bycatch “savings” for each stock. GRA: requiring the use of a modified dredge (same as SNE/MA windowpane) in open areas, CA II Seasonal closures of CA II access area. NWP and GB YT: Focus is on GB open areas, CA II SNE/MA YT: Focus on open areas west of 71°W 33
Potential Modifications to Closed Area I Scallop Access Areas FW29 - Focus on
expanding CA I AA to cover areas with exploitable scallops (“sliver”) Awaiting OHA2 Final Rule Specifications – CA I with sliver is NOT currently available. Measures to modify CAI AA boundary considered in FW28, FW29 34
Potential Modifications to Nantucket Lightship Areas FW29 - Focus on replacing
closure area with access area Awaiting OHA2 Final Rule Specifications – This area can support full trips, but is not available. Animals are ~100mm in 2017. Committee tasking motion to develop measures to create access area boundary for current NLS-NA 35
Scallop Timelines 2017
2018
Oct Nov Dec Jan
FW 29
Develop alternatives and prepare impacts
FINAL
Action
Feb Mar April
Prepare FW29 for submission
Jul
April 1 Effective
2018 Scallop Benchmark Assessment RSA
May Jun
SARC
2018 Council Priorities
The Council will take final action on FW29 before a decision is made
on OHA2 Specification alternatives should focus on available areas. Facilitating access to areas that may open through OHA2 (CAI “sliver” and NLS-NA) will require a separate Council action (i.e. not FW29). The timing of the decision and effective date of OHA2 will impact 36 the follow-up options for harvest in these areas.
What’s next? Follow-up on Monday’s PDT Meeting SSC Meeting – October 12, 2017 to approve OFL/ABC AP & CTE meetings - October 25/26, 2017 to review analyses AP & CTE meetings – Nov. 25/26 to review analyses and select
preferred alternatives Final Council Action – December 5-7, 2017 FW29 implementation: April 1, 2017
37
Questions?
38
Key Change to AM policy Council Policy on Scallop AM Triggers changed in
FW56 for 2 years through “temporary exception” for GB yellowtail flounder and Northern Windowpane flounder FW56 removed the 150% of sub-ACL trigger. Trigger: 100% of scallop sub-ACL and 100% of overall ACL is caught.
39
2017 Scallop sub-ACLs and projected catch GB YT
SNE/MA YT 256 mt 34 mt
So. Windowpane 599 mt 209 mt
N. Windowpane 172 mt 38 mt
2017 ACL sub-ACL Proj. catch estimates
201 mt 32 mt
63.21 mt
10.66
77.85
103.33
% of 2017 sub-ACL
198%
31%
37%
272%
In Season Catch Accounting Catch est. % of 2017 sub-ACL
45.9 mt 5.69 mt 143.3% 16.7%
83.19 mt 39.8%
23.50 mt 61.8% 40
41
Nantucket Lightship NLS Access ‐ North
NLS Access ‐ South
NLS ‐ No Access
NLS Access ‐ Ext
42
ACL/OFL calculations with 2018 exploitable biomass
PRELIMINARY DO NOT CITE or REFERENCE
MA HCS Virginia ETOp ETFlex Dmv NYB LI Inshore TotalMA C1NA C1Acc C2NA C2Acc NLSNA NLSAccN NLSACCS‐shal NLSACCS‐deep C2Ext NLSExt Sch NF SF Total GB TOTAL
ExBms18 7296 4 11605 19486 1732 4651 8994 1872 55640
ACL18 2702 15 4087 7096 962 1736 2943 685 20226
ACL19 2675 84 4314 7151 1867 1876 2557 840 21364
OFL18 3288 19 4946 8596 1173 2094 3545 826 24487
OFL29 3233 103 5210 8666 2245 2259 3065 1009 25790
9016 1044 2962 3344 23114 4735 6965 23051 4234 7371 5000 1002 3831 95669
2664 267 952 1143 8449 1320 2173 6290 1374 1852 1540 334 1278 29636
2230 205 1045 1187 7863 1052 1945 6997 1239 1252 2265 382 1261 28923
3209 320 1152 1386 10213 1585 2623 7662 1650 2213 1848 402 1535 35798
2676 246 1263 1428 9441 1262 1341 8502 1480 1495 2682 459 1508 33783
151309
49862
50287
60285
59573
End.
45
!!!
Gloucester, MA September 28, 2017 1
Outline of Presentation: Review of 2017 scallop survey results and specification
alternatives under development for FY2018 (FW29) No Council Action Required.
Review of management measures under development in
FW29. No Council Action Required.
2
Summary of 2017 surveys Very successful survey season – 5 separate survey
group 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
VIMS dredge survey of MA, NLS, and CA II SMAST intensive survey of CA I, CA II, ET, broadscale of GB and MA WHOI HabCam v5 survey of the Northern Edge CFF HabCam v3 survey of NLS NEFSC dredge of GB and Habcam v4 of MA and GB Surveys of GOM presented under NGOM agenda item
High level findings (Doc.3c, 3d): Total biomass expected to increase from 2016 (~600 million lbs). Roughly half of total biomass projected to be exploitable in 2018. ACL could increase in FY 2018, set by SSC Oct. 12, 2017. No strong signals of incoming recruitment observed throughout the
resource. 3
VIMS surveys 3 Surveys conducted from early
May to mid July (MA, NLS, CA II) 659 dredge tows (440 MAB, 115 in NLCA and 100 in CA II) Sampling intensity of SH:MW ~5,500 samples in MA and ~1,000 samples for both the NLS & CAII II Slower growth rates in ET Closed and southern portion of NLS No strong signals of incoming recruitment. Findings consistent with 2015 and 2016 survey campaigns
NLS
CAII
Mid-Atlantic
4
CAI
SMAST survey GB & MA Broadscale, high-res
surveys of ET, CAI, CAII 2,875 total stations on 9 cruises from April - July New: Imperx DSC camera CA I – high densities of 7yo animals in “sliver” High densities in ET-Flex, NLS-S, NLS-NA, and parts of NLS-ext Slow growth in high density areas Recruits (>75mm) detected along western boundary of ET & DMV, also in CAII ext, and LI
CAII ET High density of scallops in Nantucket Lightship
Source: SMAST
5
WHOI HabCam v5 survey of the
Northern Edge in partnership with Lund’s Fisheries Area included Northeast Reduced Impact Habitat Management Area, the Northeast Habitat Management Area, and eastern Georges Shoal. Exploitable scallops concentrated in the northern portion of the survey area. Data suggests there are several cohorts of scallops within the footprint of the survey. Source: WHOI
6
NLS-N
CFF
NLS-NA
Survey NLS using HabCam v3 July 15 – July 22 F/V Kathy Marie ~875 miles of transects, ~10,000
NLS-S annotated images (1/400) High densities and majority of biomass in the NLS-S and NLS-NA Majority of animals in NLS-N are ≥100mm Localized aggregation of scallops in NLSext may be driving estimate Findings generally consistent with VIMS and SMAST surveys
NLS-Ext
7
NEFSC Survey Four legs from May - June 128 dredge tows on GB HabCam v4 coverage of GB and MA,
over 8 million images taken, estimates based on ~160,000 manually annotated (1/50) Lack of incoming recruitment, some along northern edge High densities of 5yo scallops in NLS, NLS-ext, HC, and ET Slow growth in high density areas remains an issue
Photo Credit: NOAA Fisheries – Robert Johnson
High Density in ET-Flex. Photo Credit: NEFSC
8
Status, Updates: Similar story to 2016 (FW28). Continued slow growth in high density areas. As with 2016 process, PDT recommending adjustments to SH/MW and growth parameters using data from 16/17 surveys. Dredge efficiency in high density areas remains an issue. General agreement between optical surveys when the dredge estimate is much lower. Lack of strong recruitment in recent years. Nothing in the
pipeline in open areas for the foreseeable future. PDT reviewed 2018 exploitable biomass estimates on Monday (September 25, 2017). SSC meets to review OFLs and ABCs on October 12, 2017. 9
Survey biomass estimates: General agreement of dredge, drop camera, and HabCam
biomass estimates when high density areas are excluded: ET-Flex, NLS-S, and NLS-NA
Dredge
Source:VIMS
124,592 mt
Drop Cam
Source: SMAST
131,501 mt
HabCam
Source: CFF
135,076 mt 10
Closed Area II and Extension Potential access to CA II in FY 2018. Preliminary 2018 biomass estimates suggest it would require combining CA II AA and CA II ext. Bycatch of yellowtail flounder will continue to be an issue. May consider different seasonal closure of CAII-ext
3yo cohort in CAII-ext likely to recruit into fishery.
11
Closed Area I 7 year old animals were observed in
the "sliver" area
“Sliver” is not currently available to
fishery – awaiting OHA2 Measures in FW29 to reconfigure boundary
Meat samples appeared generally
healthy, though quality may be issue as animals get older. The PDT supports access if boundary is expanded to include the "sliver" area. Future CA I AA access should address carryover trips which are already on the books (~1.5 million lbs.).
NW corner of CAI sliver. Photo Credit: NEFSC
12
NLS-S – high density, small size
~60mm
~90mm Shells from VIMS
5 YO scallops average 77 mm. Large variation in size across
space. Reality is that there is a huge biomass of high count scallops with a finite scope of growth in marginal habitat.
100 mm
Red: 2017 Projected Blue: 2017 Observed
Nantucket Lightship NLS-No Access Commercial = 104.72 mm Survey = 102.44 mm 2018 Exploitable at F=0.38: ~18 million lbs (preliminary) NOT AVAILABLE – Still Closure
NLS-North Commercial = 126.8 mm Survey = 110.91 mm 2018 Exploitable at F=0.38: ~2.9 million lbs (preliminary) Majority of 2017 effort here. Holds the largest animals.
NLS-South Commercial = 85.53 mm Survey = 77.07 mm 2018 Exploitable at F=0.38: ~18.6 million lbs (preliminary) Faster growth in >70m
NLS-Extension Commercial = 121.88 mm Survey = 106.72 mm 2018 Exploitable at F=0.38: ~4 million lbs (preliminary) VERY UNCERTAIN
2017 Effort – Hours Fished
Mid-Atlantic AA The MAAA can likely support
multiple trips in 2018 Potential growth issues in high density areas of the ET-Flex that impact expectation of size in 2018 2015 0.20
Blob n= 80,810
Flex n= 78,798
0.15
Mean Length = 48.78 mm
Mean Length = 69.73 mm
2016 ET Biomass Estimates
0.10 0.05 0.00 Fraction of Total
2016 0.20
Blob n= 61,678
Flex n= 11,780
0.15
MeanLength = 74.47 mm
Mean Length = 87.93 mm
0.10 0.05 0.00
2017 0.20
Blob n= 55,260
Flex n= 6,425
0.15
Mean Length = 80.48 mm
Mean Length = 89.38 mm
0.10 0.05 0.00 0
50
100
150
Length Interval (mm) Blob Area
Mean Length Blob
Flex Area
Mean Length Flex
15
Specifications Tasking Committee tasking for two spatial management
configurations (see following slides) 5 access area trips proposed in both runs, 2 F rates 4 total runs
Committee tasking to develop an alternative that would
allocate a trip to fish on the slow growing animals in NLS-S. Committee tasking to evaluate DAS harvest that would allow
for constant open bottom harvest for four years. 16
Committee Tasking to PDT (Doc.5) Motion #1b Specifications Run of AAs, and a range of approaches for open areas. RED – Potential Rotational Closure GREEN – Potential Access
CAII CAI NLS
Hudson Canyon
1 trip in NLS, NLS-ext becomes open bottom
1 trip in CAII (may require ext) Seasonal closure of ext to protect YT
Elephant Trunk
Delmarva
3 trips in the MAAA, remove “flex” boundary Make Delmarva open area
5 total AA trips, Set DAS using F=0.48, F=0.4
17
Committee Tasking to PDT (Doc.5) Motion #1a Specifications Run of AAs, and a range of approaches for open areas. RED – Potential Rotational Closure GREEN – Potential Access
1 trip in CAI (AA includes CAI and CAI N)
CAII CAI NLS
Hudson Canyon
1 trip in NLS, AA would include NLS-NA
1 trip CAII (AA includes CAII and CAII ext)
Elephant Trunk
Delmarva
1trip in the MAAA, 1 trip in the ET “Flex”
5 total AA trips, Set DAS using F=0.48, F=0.4
18
Framework 29 FW29 initiated at April Council Meeting Likely range of alternatives: Specifications Northern Gulf of Maine TAC, management measures Flatfish Accountability Measures OHA2 – Modify boundaries to facilitate access
Simple Increased likelihood FW in place for April 1.
19
Specifications FY2018 and Default
measures for FY2019 FY starts on April 1 ABC/ACLs Access area allocations General Category IFQ LA DAS allocations TAC for NGOM Set-asides 20
FW29: Northern Gulf of Maine Doc. #2c, #3c, and materials from Aug. 29/30 PDT meeting Problem Statement developed at April Council meeting. Committee tasking in June and September. PDT discussion earlier this week. Results from 2017 survey work. Simple Increased likelihood FW in place for April 1.
21
SMAST Survey of Stellwagen Bank F/V Guidance, July 7 - 13 Imprex DSC Drop Camera on
1.5km grid No signs of incoming recruitment Mean SH: 103mm Total Biomass estimate 800,000 lbs (365mt, SE 69mt)
Total Exploitable Biomass 500,000 lbs (228mt, SE 44 mt)
22
Legend Survey Tracks Proposed survey tracks
NGoM VMS NGoM VMS
CFF survey Stellwagen Bank and Jeffreys
Ledge on July 8th & 9th, 2017 HabCam V3, 90nm, 400k images Annotation rate: 1:200
0 1 2
4
6
8 Miles
Esri, DeLorme, GEBCO, NOAA NGDC, and other contributors, Sources: Esri, GEBCO, NOAA, National Geographic, DeLorme, HERE, Geonames.org, and other contributors
6 dredge tows on Stellwagen No strong signals of recruitment Stellwagen Biomass estimate ~1 mil. lbs (459mt, SE 54mt) Jeffreys Ledge Biomass 335,000 lbs (152mt, SE 35 mt)
23
2016 NGOM Survey Results Mean estimate (lbs) % of total Machias-Seal Island MDI Platts Bank Ipswich Bay Jeffreys Ledge Stellwagen Bank Total Number per tow 0 1-30 31-100 101-200 200+
348,000 5,357 335,522 175,841 635,086 2,140,137 3,639,942
9.6% 0.1% 9.2% 4.8% 17.4% 58.8%
• Biomass expected to increase with annual growth. • ~75% of estimated biomass on Stellwagen Bank and Jefferys Ledge, ~25% in other survey areas • Jeffreys Ledge surveyed after fishing in 2016, Stellwagen 24 surveyed while fishing occurring.
ME DMR/UMaine survey Objective: Project growth in areas that
were surveyed in 2016, but not fished in 2016 or 2017. EX: Ipswich Bay, Platts Bank 2018 outlook: Several hundred thousand lbs in areas that were not fished in 16/17. High level of uncertainty around these projections. Highest densities remain on Stellwagen Bank, 2018 fishing effort expected to remain in this area. PDT recommends setting 2018 TAC based on exploitable biomass on Stellwagen Bank (i.e. do not include these estimates in TAC setting).
2016
Platts Bank
2017 2018
25
NGOM Problem Statement: Problem: Unknown biomass and recent high landings Goal: Understanding total removals and improving management Fishery Data
Survey Set limit/cap overall removals LAGC TAC
LA limit 26
NGOM TAC Consideration #1: 1. How to distribute removals between groups? NGOM TAC is not part of annual projected landings Committee tasking motion for Hybrid approach see Doc.2c, and Committee Motions
Rationale: Short term “band-aid”; current LA TAC in area: no limit Fishery Data
Survey Set limit/cap overall removals LAGC TAC
How to distribute removals between groups?
LA limit 27
NGOM TAC Consideration #1: “Hybrid Approach” Committee Tasking Motion 4a.
NGOM TAC Example: 200,000 lbs
1. Initial portion of TAC to GC
(“floor”) – 70,000 lbs First 70,000 lbs to LAGC 2. Remainder of TAC split between GC and LA – 50/50 Remaining TAC (130,000 lbs) split: 3. See rationale 50/50 Example TAC split
LA TAC: 65,000 lbs
GC TAC: 135,000 lbs
28
NGOM TAC Consideration #1: “Hybrid Approach” Committee Tasking Motion 4b.
NGOM TAC Example: 200,000 lbs
1. Initial portion of TAC to GC
(“floor”) – 95,000 lbs First 95,000 lbs to LAGC 2. Remainder of TAC split between GC and LA – 25/75 Remaining TAC (105,000 lbs) split: 3. See rationale. 75 (LA) / 25 (GC) Example TAC split
LA TAC: 78,750 lbs
GC TAC: 121,250 lbs
29
NGOM TAC Consideration #2: 2. Develop harvest approach for LA component.
Council motion calls for status quo regs for LAGC. Overall TAC may inform what approaches are feasible.
PDT discussion:
LA limit (TAC)
VMS declaration, trips DAS exchange Make lbs eligible for
RSA compensation fishing
Harvest Approach i: DAS exchange for declared trip to the area.
Harvest Approach ii: RSA compensation fishing
PDT met on Monday – planning to continue development ahead of Oct. meetings 30
Flatfish AMs Committee tasking motion from June: Focus on gear modifications (5-row apron and 1.5:1
hanging ratio), potentially consider seasonal closures
Focus on three stocks: Northern windowpane (regulatory requirement) Georges Bank yellowtail SNE/MA yellowtail
PDT is developing potential measures 31
GB Yellowtail
250
As of early September 2017: 200 Scallop fishery has exceeded sub-ACL for FY2017 150 99% of YT bycatch from CAII CAII landings at 82% of projected catch (5.8 mil. lbs) 100 Groundfish:16.8% of sub-ACL (27.4 mt), offshore spring fishery 50 Scallop AM does not trigger unless total ACL is exceeded 0
ACL: 201mt
127 mt
Projected Catch: 63 mt 27.4 mt Scallop Sub-ACL: 32 mt 45.9 mt
2017 Catch 32
Flatfish AM development No tasking from Scallop Committee in September. PDT is developing potential measures based on calculations of bycatch “savings” for each stock. GRA: requiring the use of a modified dredge (same as SNE/MA windowpane) in open areas, CA II Seasonal closures of CA II access area. NWP and GB YT: Focus is on GB open areas, CA II SNE/MA YT: Focus on open areas west of 71°W 33
Potential Modifications to Closed Area I Scallop Access Areas FW29 - Focus on
expanding CA I AA to cover areas with exploitable scallops (“sliver”) Awaiting OHA2 Final Rule Specifications – CA I with sliver is NOT currently available. Measures to modify CAI AA boundary considered in FW28, FW29 34
Potential Modifications to Nantucket Lightship Areas FW29 - Focus on replacing
closure area with access area Awaiting OHA2 Final Rule Specifications – This area can support full trips, but is not available. Animals are ~100mm in 2017. Committee tasking motion to develop measures to create access area boundary for current NLS-NA 35
Scallop Timelines 2017
2018
Oct Nov Dec Jan
FW 29
Develop alternatives and prepare impacts
FINAL
Action
Feb Mar April
Prepare FW29 for submission
Jul
April 1 Effective
2018 Scallop Benchmark Assessment RSA
May Jun
SARC
2018 Council Priorities
The Council will take final action on FW29 before a decision is made
on OHA2 Specification alternatives should focus on available areas. Facilitating access to areas that may open through OHA2 (CAI “sliver” and NLS-NA) will require a separate Council action (i.e. not FW29). The timing of the decision and effective date of OHA2 will impact 36 the follow-up options for harvest in these areas.
What’s next? Follow-up on Monday’s PDT Meeting SSC Meeting – October 12, 2017 to approve OFL/ABC AP & CTE meetings - October 25/26, 2017 to review analyses AP & CTE meetings – Nov. 25/26 to review analyses and select
preferred alternatives Final Council Action – December 5-7, 2017 FW29 implementation: April 1, 2017
37
Questions?
38
Key Change to AM policy Council Policy on Scallop AM Triggers changed in
FW56 for 2 years through “temporary exception” for GB yellowtail flounder and Northern Windowpane flounder FW56 removed the 150% of sub-ACL trigger. Trigger: 100% of scallop sub-ACL and 100% of overall ACL is caught.
39
2017 Scallop sub-ACLs and projected catch GB YT
SNE/MA YT 256 mt 34 mt
So. Windowpane 599 mt 209 mt
N. Windowpane 172 mt 38 mt
2017 ACL sub-ACL Proj. catch estimates
201 mt 32 mt
63.21 mt
10.66
77.85
103.33
% of 2017 sub-ACL
198%
31%
37%
272%
In Season Catch Accounting Catch est. % of 2017 sub-ACL
45.9 mt 5.69 mt 143.3% 16.7%
83.19 mt 39.8%
23.50 mt 61.8% 40
41
Nantucket Lightship NLS Access ‐ North
NLS Access ‐ South
NLS ‐ No Access
NLS Access ‐ Ext
42
ACL/OFL calculations with 2018 exploitable biomass
PRELIMINARY DO NOT CITE or REFERENCE
MA HCS Virginia ETOp ETFlex Dmv NYB LI Inshore TotalMA C1NA C1Acc C2NA C2Acc NLSNA NLSAccN NLSACCS‐shal NLSACCS‐deep C2Ext NLSExt Sch NF SF Total GB TOTAL
ExBms18 7296 4 11605 19486 1732 4651 8994 1872 55640
ACL18 2702 15 4087 7096 962 1736 2943 685 20226
ACL19 2675 84 4314 7151 1867 1876 2557 840 21364
OFL18 3288 19 4946 8596 1173 2094 3545 826 24487
OFL29 3233 103 5210 8666 2245 2259 3065 1009 25790
9016 1044 2962 3344 23114 4735 6965 23051 4234 7371 5000 1002 3831 95669
2664 267 952 1143 8449 1320 2173 6290 1374 1852 1540 334 1278 29636
2230 205 1045 1187 7863 1052 1945 6997 1239 1252 2265 382 1261 28923
3209 320 1152 1386 10213 1585 2623 7662 1650 2213 1848 402 1535 35798
2676 246 1263 1428 9441 1262 1341 8502 1480 1495 2682 459 1508 33783
151309
49862
50287
60285
59573
End.
45
!!!
