Julian Le Bleu Robert Perez RM
BETTER DECISIONS USING DECISION BETTER DECISIONS USING DECISION TREES AND ONLINE GUIDES HOW TO MAKE IT EASY TO MAKE HOW TO MAKE IT EASY TO MAKE THE CORRECT DECISION
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Logic diagrams insure logic is as required • Logic diagrams convert into online guides • There can be more than one type of online guide – – – –
Decisions Troubleshooting Safety issues Safety issues Procedures • Startup and shutdown Startup and shutdown • Can reduce or eliminate paper • Always current Always current
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • One example to illustrate the concept of online guides related to rotating equipment. g g q p
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • • • •
History of the concept What is required What is required How it works Potential results
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • History of the concept – – – – –
Too many decisions being made “safe” Too many call‐outs Too many emergencies Too much money on overtime Want to retain quality engineering staff q y g g
HISTORY OF THE IDEA HISTORY OF THE IDEA • Too many “safe” decisions. – Safe from what point of view? p • Cost? • Reliability? • Convince?
– High cost High cost – CYA (cover your assets) – Pass the buck to make a decision
HISTORY OF THE IDEA HISTORY OF THE IDEA • Too many “call‐outs” • Call‐out is when someone is called in unscheduled • Call‐outs should not occur every night, weekend or holiday • Off‐hour decisions should be made by staff on‐site when possible • Make an “expert” available all the time
HISTORY OF THE IDEA HISTORY OF THE IDEA • Too many emergencies • • • •
Every occurrence should not be an emergency What are acceptable limits for mechanical equipment? Can I continue to run equipment that has a problem? What is acceptable risk?
HISTORY OF THE IDEA HISTORY OF THE IDEA • Too much money on overtime – – – –
How much work is being done on emergency basis? How much work is not being planed? How much “hot‐shot work” is being used How many call‐outs during off‐hours
HISTORY OF THE IDEA HISTORY OF THE IDEA • Retain quality engineering staff • How many times are engineers called to make decision during “off” hours? • How much of the engineers “off” hours are spent in the plant? • How many holidays? • Are your engineers or technical staff having to make all decisions during “off” hours?
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • What is required? An expert to make decisions in advance Generate a logic diagram with decisions Management to agree to guide adherence Simple tools to quantify problem severity Online guide built from logic diagram with the decisions of g g g experts – Guide must be accessible 24/7 – Training of operating staff – – – – –
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • An expert to make decisions in advance • Have a knowledgeable expert capture the knowledge he or she would use to make decision • Transfer that knowledge to a logic diagram • Load that information into software to allow questions to be asked • Each answer will either bring another question or a conclusion
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Management to agree to guide adherence • Some level of risk must be accepted • After logic made, management must agree to the outcomes or values. If not, values are changed or logic is changed. • Communicate to all that if the logic is used during the “off h hours”, there will be no “second guessing” ” h ill b “ d i ” • If the logic is not followed, there may be discipline • If the logic is wrong but followed, the logic will be f h l b f ll d h l ll b corrected
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Simple tools to quantify problem severity • • • •
Handheld overall vibration detector Temperature measuring device Training in the use of these devices Common accessible location to allow use at any time
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Online guide available with the decisions • Once problem detected with senses or tools, guide is accessed • Guide asks questions and lead the user to a decision • Final decision reached
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Guide accessible 24/7 • Guide must be accessible 24/7 • Person using the guide logs in so additional data can be collected, if necessary • History of questions and equipment worked on will be logged automatically • Reports can be generated as necessary
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Training of operating staff • Everyone must know how to access the guide • The logic should be explained to those going to use it • Some training or explanation of equipment or processes should be given • The complexity of the guide and its decisions will determine the level of training
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • How it works – – – – – –
Common decisions made in advance by expert Management agrees with the decisions Guide generated and made available Simple tools used to quantify problem found Training for the operators g p Guide use is required
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Common decisions made in advance by expert p • A computer program that will accept the logic must be developed or found • Expert can be local or International • Guide will NOT be accurate 100% of the time • Decisions should be put into a logic diagram format for entry to the program
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Management agrees with the decisions • It becomes easy to make decisions with some level of risk because management has already agreed to accept it • The guide will help make it easier to make decisions as if supervision was there coaching
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Guide generated and made available • Guide does not have to be 100% accurate • Guide captures present knowledge and makes accessible • Always available
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Simple tools purchased • Handheld overall vibration meter • Handheld temperature device • Others
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Training for the operators • Training in the use of the guide g g • Training in the use of the “special tools” • Training in the expectations and consequences of Training in the expectations and consequences of using and not using the guide
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Require use of the guide • Management must require use of the guide g q g • Potential discipline will result if not used • No repercussions or discipline if guide is used No repercussions or discipline if guide is used
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Potential results – One chemical plant on the Gulf Coast reduced p overtime on rotating equipment by 30% in less y than one year – Operators understood what bad really meant for equipment (oil temp, vibration, flow, pressure) equipment (oil temp vibration flow pressure) – Everyone got out of “do it now” mode – Not limited to mechanical equipment li i d h i l i
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Potential results – One of the few ways to capture experts’ y p p knowledge – Make available for less Make available for less‐experienced experienced 24/7 24/7 – Not limited to equipment (startups, shutdowns, operation procedures troubleshooting) operation procedures, troubleshooting)
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Logic diagrams insure logic is as required • Logic diagrams convert into online guides • There can be more than one type of online guide – – – –
Decisions Troubleshooting Safety issues Safety issues Procedures • Startup and shutdown Startup and shutdown • Can reduce or eliminate paper • Always current Always current
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • One example to illustrate the concept of online guides related to rotating equipment. g g q p
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • • • •
History of the concept What is required What is required How it works Potential results
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • History of the concept – – – – –
Too many decisions being made “safe” Too many call‐outs Too many emergencies Too much money on overtime Want to retain quality engineering staff q y g g
HISTORY OF THE IDEA HISTORY OF THE IDEA • Too many “safe” decisions. – Safe from what point of view? p • Cost? • Reliability? • Convince?
– High cost High cost – CYA (cover your assets) – Pass the buck to make a decision
HISTORY OF THE IDEA HISTORY OF THE IDEA • Too many “call‐outs” • Call‐out is when someone is called in unscheduled • Call‐outs should not occur every night, weekend or holiday • Off‐hour decisions should be made by staff on‐site when possible • Make an “expert” available all the time
HISTORY OF THE IDEA HISTORY OF THE IDEA • Too many emergencies • • • •
Every occurrence should not be an emergency What are acceptable limits for mechanical equipment? Can I continue to run equipment that has a problem? What is acceptable risk?
HISTORY OF THE IDEA HISTORY OF THE IDEA • Too much money on overtime – – – –
How much work is being done on emergency basis? How much work is not being planed? How much “hot‐shot work” is being used How many call‐outs during off‐hours
HISTORY OF THE IDEA HISTORY OF THE IDEA • Retain quality engineering staff • How many times are engineers called to make decision during “off” hours? • How much of the engineers “off” hours are spent in the plant? • How many holidays? • Are your engineers or technical staff having to make all decisions during “off” hours?
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • What is required? An expert to make decisions in advance Generate a logic diagram with decisions Management to agree to guide adherence Simple tools to quantify problem severity Online guide built from logic diagram with the decisions of g g g experts – Guide must be accessible 24/7 – Training of operating staff – – – – –
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • An expert to make decisions in advance • Have a knowledgeable expert capture the knowledge he or she would use to make decision • Transfer that knowledge to a logic diagram • Load that information into software to allow questions to be asked • Each answer will either bring another question or a conclusion
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Management to agree to guide adherence • Some level of risk must be accepted • After logic made, management must agree to the outcomes or values. If not, values are changed or logic is changed. • Communicate to all that if the logic is used during the “off h hours”, there will be no “second guessing” ” h ill b “ d i ” • If the logic is not followed, there may be discipline • If the logic is wrong but followed, the logic will be f h l b f ll d h l ll b corrected
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Simple tools to quantify problem severity • • • •
Handheld overall vibration detector Temperature measuring device Training in the use of these devices Common accessible location to allow use at any time
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Online guide available with the decisions • Once problem detected with senses or tools, guide is accessed • Guide asks questions and lead the user to a decision • Final decision reached
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Guide accessible 24/7 • Guide must be accessible 24/7 • Person using the guide logs in so additional data can be collected, if necessary • History of questions and equipment worked on will be logged automatically • Reports can be generated as necessary
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Training of operating staff • Everyone must know how to access the guide • The logic should be explained to those going to use it • Some training or explanation of equipment or processes should be given • The complexity of the guide and its decisions will determine the level of training
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • How it works – – – – – –
Common decisions made in advance by expert Management agrees with the decisions Guide generated and made available Simple tools used to quantify problem found Training for the operators g p Guide use is required
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Common decisions made in advance by expert p • A computer program that will accept the logic must be developed or found • Expert can be local or International • Guide will NOT be accurate 100% of the time • Decisions should be put into a logic diagram format for entry to the program
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Management agrees with the decisions • It becomes easy to make decisions with some level of risk because management has already agreed to accept it • The guide will help make it easier to make decisions as if supervision was there coaching
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Guide generated and made available • Guide does not have to be 100% accurate • Guide captures present knowledge and makes accessible • Always available
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Simple tools purchased • Handheld overall vibration meter • Handheld temperature device • Others
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Training for the operators • Training in the use of the guide g g • Training in the use of the “special tools” • Training in the expectations and consequences of Training in the expectations and consequences of using and not using the guide
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Require use of the guide • Management must require use of the guide g q g • Potential discipline will result if not used • No repercussions or discipline if guide is used No repercussions or discipline if guide is used
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Potential results – One chemical plant on the Gulf Coast reduced p overtime on rotating equipment by 30% in less y than one year – Operators understood what bad really meant for equipment (oil temp, vibration, flow, pressure) equipment (oil temp vibration flow pressure) – Everyone got out of “do it now” mode – Not limited to mechanical equipment li i d h i l i
BETTER DECISIONS BETTER DECISIONS • Potential results – One of the few ways to capture experts’ y p p knowledge – Make available for less Make available for less‐experienced experienced 24/7 24/7 – Not limited to equipment (startups, shutdowns, operation procedures troubleshooting) operation procedures, troubleshooting)
