Katie Kennedy
Finding Balanced Water Management Solutions for the Connecticut River Under a Changing Climate
Katie Kennedy Applied River Scientist The Nature Conservancy
Environmental Business Council of New England Energy Environment Economy
Holyoke Dam, Connecticut River, Holyoke, MA Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
Finding balanced water management solutions for the Connecticut River under a changing climate KATIE KENNEDY, APPLIED RIVER SCIENTIST, CONNECTICUT RIVER PROGRAM
Finding balanced w ater management solutions for the Connecticut River under a changing climate KATIE KENNEDY, TNC, CONNECTICUT RIVER PROGRAM KIM LUTZ, TNC, CONNECTICUT RIVER PROGRAM RICHARD PALMER, UMASS AUSTIN POLEBITSKI KYLE O’NEIL JOCELYN ANLEITNER ALEC BERNSTEIN SCOTT STEINSCHNEIDER
/3
THE NATURE CONSERVANCY WHO ARE WE?
Black Cap Mountain, Green Hills Preserve, Conway, NH Photo: ©Eric Aldrich/TNC
Vernal Pond, Iron Ore Hill, Sunny Valley Preserve, Bridgewater, CT Photo: © Alden Warner
Sandy Neck, Cape Cod, MA Photo: © Karen Lombard / TNC
/4
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER PROGRAM A PROGRAM OF THE VT, NH, MA, AND CT CHAPTERS
Connecticut River, view from Skinner Mountain, South Hadley, MA Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
/5
A RIVER IS FOR…
Photo: © K. Kennedy/TNC
Photo: Nuclear Energy Institute via Forbes.com
Photo: © Michelson, Inc/nmfs.noaa.gov
Except where noted, Photos: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
/6
COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY THE WORLD IS CHANGING…
Hurricane Sandy, October 2012 Photo: NASA
New Orleans, LA, August 30, 2005 Photo: Jocelyn Augustino/FEMA
Leopard frog, drought in lower central plains of Missouri, June 2008 Photo: © Mark Godfrey
Polar bear, Svalbard Treaty Area, Spitsbergen, Norway Photo: © Eric P. Grossman
/7
CO NNECT I CUT RI VER W AT ERSHED ST UDY STUDY PURPOSE To determine how management of various dams and water systems can be modified for environmental benefits while maintaining human uses such as water supply, flood control, and hydropower generation.
Salmon River, East Haddam, CT Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
/8
~70 Major Dams in the CT River Watershed
Ball Mountain Dam, Connecticut River, Jamaica, VT Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
Holyoke Dam, Connecticut River, Holyoke, MA Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
/9
CONNECTICUT RIVER WATERSHED STUDY SYSTEM MODELS
Connecticut River Unimpacted Streamflow Estimator (CRUISE) Optimization model (LINGO) Simulation model (RES-SIM) Climate-altered stream flows (VIC)
/10
CRUISE TOOL •
Daily unregulated streamflow for ungaged
Estimate basin characteristics
locations across the CT River basin •
GIS-based
•
Publically available
Area = XX.X mi2 Solve the regression equations
http://webdmamrl.er.usgs.gov/s1/sarch/ctrtool/
Estimate flowduration curve
EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITY
STREAMFLOW
STREAMFLOW
ln(Q50) = a1 + b1 * (ln(Area))
Obtain flow series from reference gage
TIME Figure: S. Archfield, USGS
OPTIMIZATION MODEL Inflows (CRUISE or Climate-Altered)
“A MODEL USED TO FIND THE BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME FROM A SET OF ALTERNATIVES”
Minimum Flow Requirements
Ramping Requirements
Initial Storage Values
Reservoir Releases Reservoir Storages
Optimization Model
Power Production
Flows at Ecological Nodes
Natural Flow Targets
Hydropower Generation Information
•
Maximizes/minimizes system objectives
•
Can evaluate trade-offs among objectives
Figure: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
/12
SIMULATION MODEL •
Replicates existing operation rules to simulate reservoir management
•
Is easily adjusted to examine and compare different scenarios
•
Scenario development will be informed by results of the
optimization model
/13
Figure: W. Fields, USACE
CLIMATE-ALTERED FLOWS
GLOBAL CIRUCLATION MODELS
WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS MODEL
DOWNSCALED METEOROLOGIC DATA
HYDROLOGY MODEL
Figure: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
AL T ERED HYDRO L O G Y MO DEL VIC: VARIABLE INFILTRATION CAPACITY •
•
Input (daily time step): •
Precipitation
•
Wind speed
•
Min & Max temperature
Output: Daily streamflow at select locations
www.hydro.washington.edu
/15
Projected Change in Annual Precipitation and Temperature Between Baseline and 2080
CL I MAT E CHANG E AN AL YSI S 0.6 0.5 0.4
3 Emissions Scenarios
0.3
•
CCCMA A2 CCCMA B1 GISS A2 GISS B1 MRI A2 MRI B1 CCSM A2 CCSM B1 PCM A2 PCM B1 Other GCMs
0.2
16 Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
0.1
•
0.0
112 downscaled climate projections in Annual Precipitation (mm/day) Change Change in Annual Preciptiation (mm/day)
•
Projected Change in Annual Precipitation and Temperature Between GCM Historic and 2050s
0
1
Change
2
3
4
in Annual Temperature (degrees C) inChange Annual Temperature (degrees
C)
Figure: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
/16
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS 2075 CHANGES FROM BASELINE Precipitation (mm)
Baseflow (mm)
Snowpack (cm)
Figures: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
/17
4000
CL I MAT E - AL T ERED ST REAMF L O W
CT River at Thompsonville, CT
2000
•
Earlier annual peak flow
•
Increased winter flow
•
Minor differences between emissions scenarios
Cubic feet per second
MEAN WEEKLY STREAMFLOW
3500 White River, VT
1500
2000 Ashuelot River, NH
1000
Jan 1
Dec 31 Historic
2025
2050
2075
Figures: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
/18
5000
CT River at Thompsonville, CT
CL I MAT E - AL T ERED ST REAMF L O W MEAN WEEKLY STREAMFLOW Earlier annual peak flow
•
Increased winter flow
•
Minor differences between emissions scenarios
Cubic feet per second
•
1000
4000
White River, VT
1000
2500 Ashuelot River, NH
1000
Jan 1
Dec 31 Historical
A1B
GCM range
Figures: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
/19
CLIMATE-ALTERED FLOWS
GLOBAL CIRUCLATION MODELS
WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS MODEL
DOWNSCALED METEOROLOGIC DATA
HYDROLOGY MODEL
Figure: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
1.
1e+05
STEPS FOR APPLICATION Begin with CRUISE or climate-
NATURAL (SYE) FLOW ECO BOUNDS MODELED FLOW
hydropower alone 4.
Include ecological flow objectives
5.
Evaluate trade-offs
6.
Help to find balanced solutions for people and nature
6e+04
Estimate flows optimizing
4e+04
3.
STREAMFLOW (cfs)
natural
2e+04
Estimate “allowable deviation” from
0e+00
2.
8e+04
altered data
Apr 01
Apr 15
May 01
May 15
Jun 01
DATE Figures: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
Jun 15
Jul 01
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS •
US Geological Survey •
•
Stacey Archfield
United States Army Corps of Engineers •
Chris Hatfield
•
Townsend Barker
•
John Hickey
•
Woody Fields
QUESTIONS? Connecticut River, Haddam, CT Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
Katie Kennedy Applied River Scientist The Nature Conservancy
Environmental Business Council of New England Energy Environment Economy
Holyoke Dam, Connecticut River, Holyoke, MA Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
Finding balanced water management solutions for the Connecticut River under a changing climate KATIE KENNEDY, APPLIED RIVER SCIENTIST, CONNECTICUT RIVER PROGRAM
Finding balanced w ater management solutions for the Connecticut River under a changing climate KATIE KENNEDY, TNC, CONNECTICUT RIVER PROGRAM KIM LUTZ, TNC, CONNECTICUT RIVER PROGRAM RICHARD PALMER, UMASS AUSTIN POLEBITSKI KYLE O’NEIL JOCELYN ANLEITNER ALEC BERNSTEIN SCOTT STEINSCHNEIDER
/3
THE NATURE CONSERVANCY WHO ARE WE?
Black Cap Mountain, Green Hills Preserve, Conway, NH Photo: ©Eric Aldrich/TNC
Vernal Pond, Iron Ore Hill, Sunny Valley Preserve, Bridgewater, CT Photo: © Alden Warner
Sandy Neck, Cape Cod, MA Photo: © Karen Lombard / TNC
/4
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER PROGRAM A PROGRAM OF THE VT, NH, MA, AND CT CHAPTERS
Connecticut River, view from Skinner Mountain, South Hadley, MA Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
/5
A RIVER IS FOR…
Photo: © K. Kennedy/TNC
Photo: Nuclear Energy Institute via Forbes.com
Photo: © Michelson, Inc/nmfs.noaa.gov
Except where noted, Photos: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
/6
COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY THE WORLD IS CHANGING…
Hurricane Sandy, October 2012 Photo: NASA
New Orleans, LA, August 30, 2005 Photo: Jocelyn Augustino/FEMA
Leopard frog, drought in lower central plains of Missouri, June 2008 Photo: © Mark Godfrey
Polar bear, Svalbard Treaty Area, Spitsbergen, Norway Photo: © Eric P. Grossman
/7
CO NNECT I CUT RI VER W AT ERSHED ST UDY STUDY PURPOSE To determine how management of various dams and water systems can be modified for environmental benefits while maintaining human uses such as water supply, flood control, and hydropower generation.
Salmon River, East Haddam, CT Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
/8
~70 Major Dams in the CT River Watershed
Ball Mountain Dam, Connecticut River, Jamaica, VT Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
Holyoke Dam, Connecticut River, Holyoke, MA Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
/9
CONNECTICUT RIVER WATERSHED STUDY SYSTEM MODELS
Connecticut River Unimpacted Streamflow Estimator (CRUISE) Optimization model (LINGO) Simulation model (RES-SIM) Climate-altered stream flows (VIC)
/10
CRUISE TOOL •
Daily unregulated streamflow for ungaged
Estimate basin characteristics
locations across the CT River basin •
GIS-based
•
Publically available
Area = XX.X mi2 Solve the regression equations
http://webdmamrl.er.usgs.gov/s1/sarch/ctrtool/
Estimate flowduration curve
EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITY
STREAMFLOW
STREAMFLOW
ln(Q50) = a1 + b1 * (ln(Area))
Obtain flow series from reference gage
TIME Figure: S. Archfield, USGS
OPTIMIZATION MODEL Inflows (CRUISE or Climate-Altered)
“A MODEL USED TO FIND THE BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME FROM A SET OF ALTERNATIVES”
Minimum Flow Requirements
Ramping Requirements
Initial Storage Values
Reservoir Releases Reservoir Storages
Optimization Model
Power Production
Flows at Ecological Nodes
Natural Flow Targets
Hydropower Generation Information
•
Maximizes/minimizes system objectives
•
Can evaluate trade-offs among objectives
Figure: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
/12
SIMULATION MODEL •
Replicates existing operation rules to simulate reservoir management
•
Is easily adjusted to examine and compare different scenarios
•
Scenario development will be informed by results of the
optimization model
/13
Figure: W. Fields, USACE
CLIMATE-ALTERED FLOWS
GLOBAL CIRUCLATION MODELS
WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS MODEL
DOWNSCALED METEOROLOGIC DATA
HYDROLOGY MODEL
Figure: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
AL T ERED HYDRO L O G Y MO DEL VIC: VARIABLE INFILTRATION CAPACITY •
•
Input (daily time step): •
Precipitation
•
Wind speed
•
Min & Max temperature
Output: Daily streamflow at select locations
www.hydro.washington.edu
/15
Projected Change in Annual Precipitation and Temperature Between Baseline and 2080
CL I MAT E CHANG E AN AL YSI S 0.6 0.5 0.4
3 Emissions Scenarios
0.3
•
CCCMA A2 CCCMA B1 GISS A2 GISS B1 MRI A2 MRI B1 CCSM A2 CCSM B1 PCM A2 PCM B1 Other GCMs
0.2
16 Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
0.1
•
0.0
112 downscaled climate projections in Annual Precipitation (mm/day) Change Change in Annual Preciptiation (mm/day)
•
Projected Change in Annual Precipitation and Temperature Between GCM Historic and 2050s
0
1
Change
2
3
4
in Annual Temperature (degrees C) inChange Annual Temperature (degrees
C)
Figure: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
/16
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS 2075 CHANGES FROM BASELINE Precipitation (mm)
Baseflow (mm)
Snowpack (cm)
Figures: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
/17
4000
CL I MAT E - AL T ERED ST REAMF L O W
CT River at Thompsonville, CT
2000
•
Earlier annual peak flow
•
Increased winter flow
•
Minor differences between emissions scenarios
Cubic feet per second
MEAN WEEKLY STREAMFLOW
3500 White River, VT
1500
2000 Ashuelot River, NH
1000
Jan 1
Dec 31 Historic
2025
2050
2075
Figures: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
/18
5000
CT River at Thompsonville, CT
CL I MAT E - AL T ERED ST REAMF L O W MEAN WEEKLY STREAMFLOW Earlier annual peak flow
•
Increased winter flow
•
Minor differences between emissions scenarios
Cubic feet per second
•
1000
4000
White River, VT
1000
2500 Ashuelot River, NH
1000
Jan 1
Dec 31 Historical
A1B
GCM range
Figures: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
/19
CLIMATE-ALTERED FLOWS
GLOBAL CIRUCLATION MODELS
WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS MODEL
DOWNSCALED METEOROLOGIC DATA
HYDROLOGY MODEL
Figure: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
1.
1e+05
STEPS FOR APPLICATION Begin with CRUISE or climate-
NATURAL (SYE) FLOW ECO BOUNDS MODELED FLOW
hydropower alone 4.
Include ecological flow objectives
5.
Evaluate trade-offs
6.
Help to find balanced solutions for people and nature
6e+04
Estimate flows optimizing
4e+04
3.
STREAMFLOW (cfs)
natural
2e+04
Estimate “allowable deviation” from
0e+00
2.
8e+04
altered data
Apr 01
Apr 15
May 01
May 15
Jun 01
DATE Figures: R. Palmer, et al., UMass
Jun 15
Jul 01
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS •
US Geological Survey •
•
Stacey Archfield
United States Army Corps of Engineers •
Chris Hatfield
•
Townsend Barker
•
John Hickey
•
Woody Fields
QUESTIONS? Connecticut River, Haddam, CT Photo: © Jerry and Marcy Monkman/www.ecophotography.com
