Kiatnakin Bank
Kiatnakin Bank Underperform (16E TP Bt40.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt43.25
Banking April 19, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
1Q16 net profit ahead of estimate on lower provision Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
4.449
5.123
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.1%
1.3%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KKP.BK/KKP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
846.75
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
37.00/1,046.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
44.00/33.34
52 week High / Low (Bt)
46.25/29.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
1,235.00
NVDR (%)
6.87
Estimated free float (%)
76.48
Beta
0.82
URL
www.kiatnakin.co.th
CGR
Switch to Underperform from Outperform We switch our rating for KKP to Underperform from Outperform as the current price posts no upside vs. our 16E target price of Bt40/share. However, the key near‐term share price catalysts could come from the appealing dividend for 2H15 of Bt2.00/share, with the XD date on 29 Apr‐ 16, as well as from the possibility of a further policy rate cut by 0.25%. 1Q16 net profit surpassed both our forecast and the street KKP posted 1Q16 net profit (NP) of Bt1,107mn (+67% YoY, +13% QoQ), beating our forecast (Bt880mn) and the street estimate (Bt955mn). The higher‐than‐expected NP was due largely to a lower‐than‐expected provision as KKP set a provision of just Bt584mn (134 bps) vs. our estimate of Bt800mn (181 bps). In our view, KKP set a lower provision this quarter as it had lower extra gain in the capital market units in 1Q16. Specifically, KKP booked gain of Bt123mn on trading and FX transactions (especially in regard to gain from the equity derivatives trading (EDT) and hedge fund units) in 1Q16 vs. Bt391mn in 4Q15 and Bt247mn in 1Q15. 1Q16 net profit stood at Bt1,107mn (+67% YoY, +13% QoQ) The stronger NP increase both YoY and QoQ was due largely to 1) its much lower provision both YoY and QoQ; 2) higher NIM on the benefit of the low interest environment; and 3) lower losses from the sale of repossessed cars (totaling Bt152mn in 1Q16 vs. Bt322mn in 1Q15 and Bt245mn in 4Q15); and 4) slightly higher gain YoY on the sale of foreclosed assets totaling Bt198mn in 1Q16 vs. Bt173mn in 1Q15. Meanwhile, loans remained weak with a drop by 4% YoY and 2% QoQ. Asset quality improved QoQ, especially in auto hire purchase loans NPLs and the NPL ratio declined QoQ to 5.7% in 1Q16 from 5.8% in 4Q15 and 6.5% in 1Q15, mainly from the lower NPLs in auto hire purchase loans. Meanwhile, its loan loss reserve (LLR) to NPL ratio improved QoQ to 98% from 92%. Its LLR to the BoT’s required LLR in 1Q16 also increased to 167% vs. 160% in 4Q15 and 150% in 1Q15. Financials and Valuation
Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PPOP (Btm)
5,695
5,514
5,313
5,388
5,584
Net profit (Btm)
2,734
3,317
3,721
4,394
4,870
3.24
3.92
4.40
5.19
5.75
EPS growth (%)
‐38.4%
20.8%
12.2%
18.1%
10.8%
Book value (Bt)
43.52
44.79
46.71
49.76
52.92
1.85
3.00
2.20
2.30
2.40 2018E
EPS (Bt)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
Dividend (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
PER (X)
13.33
11.04
9.84
8.33
7.52
PBV (X)
0.97
0.97
0.93
0.87
0.82
Dividend yield (%)
4.28
6.94
5.08
5.32
5.55
ROE (%)
7.6%
8.9%
9.5%
10.6%
11.1%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 1Q16 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended December
1Q15
4Q15
1Q16
% YoY % QoQ
2015
2016E
% YoY % 1Q to 16E
Net Interest Income
2,201
2,569
2,337
6%
-9%
9,449
9,779
3%
Non Interest Income
1,201
1,403
1,444
20%
3%
4,804
5,432
13%
24% 27%
Operating Income
3,402
3,972
3,781
11%
-5%
14,252
15,211
7%
25%
Operating Expenses
1,689
2,071
1,809
7%
-13%
7,017
7,560
8%
24%
Operating Profit
1,488
1,505
1,541
4%
2%
6,224
6,161
-1%
25% 19%
Provision for loan loss (Reversal)
918
824
584
-36%
-29%
3,208
3,082
-4%
Taxes expenses (Reversal)
120
26
276
130%
955%
602
731
22%
38%
Net Profit
664
980
1,107
67%
13%
3,317
3,721
12%
30%
1,357
1,409
1,259
-7%
-11%
5,514
5,313
-4%
24%
0.79
1.16
1.31
66%
13%
3.92
4.40
12%
30%
PPOP-after tax EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn)
1Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2015
2016E
11,812
10,408
10,106
10,408
10,200
6.5%
5.8%
5.7%
5.8%
5.5%
73.9%
91.7%
98.4%
91.7%
115.6%
Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Loan Loss Reserve/Loans Tier I/Risk Asset C apital Adequacy Ratio
4.6%
5.1%
5.5%
5.1%
6.0%
15.0%
14.6%
14.5%
14.6%
15.3%
15.4%
16.5%
17.2%
16.5%
17.9%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
147.3%
180.0%
172.7%
180.0%
186.0%
Loan to Deposit & ST borrowing
147.0%
179.5%
172.3%
179.5%
185.5%
Provision to loans
2.03%
1.86%
1.34%
1.81%
1.65%
C ost to Income
49.6%
52.1%
47.8%
49.2%
49.7%
Non-interest Income/Total Income
35.3%
35.3%
38.2%
33.7%
35.7%
Net Interest Margin
3.96%
4.21%
4.51%
4.33%
4.53%
Interest Spread
3.87%
4.85%
4.94%
4.24%
4.39%
Tax rate
15.1%
2.4%
19.9%
14.9%
16.0%
Loan growth YoY
-8.3%
-3.6%
-3.8%
-3.6%
5.1%
Loan growth QoQ
-1.8%
0.6%
-2.0%
0.6%
Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: KKP's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 1.8
2016E
PBV (x)
1.6 +2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
1.4 1.2 1.0
Avg.
Jul-15
Apr-16
Nov-14
Jun-13
Feb-14
Jan-12
Oct-12
May-11
Dec-09
Aug-10
Jul-08
Mar-09
Oct-07
Jan-05
0.2
Jun-06
0.4
Feb-07
0.6
Sep-05
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2S.D.
0.8
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
1.3
62
44
+1.5SD
1.2
57
32
+1.0SD
1.1
52
20
+0.5SD
1.0
47
9
Average
0.9
42
-3
-0.5SD
0.8
37
-15
-1.0SD
0.7
32
-26
-1.5SD
0.6
27
-38
-2.0SD
0.5
22
-50
Figure 3: KKP's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X)
2016E
16 14
+2 S.D.
12 10 8 6 4 2
+1 S.D. Avg. -1 S.D. -2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Apr-16
Jul-15
Nov-14
Jun-13
Feb-14
Oct-12
Jan-12
May-11
Aug-10
Dec-09
Mar-09
Jul-08
Oct-07
Feb-07
Jun-06
Jan-05
Sep-05
0
PER (x)
Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
13.1
58
33
+1.5SD
11.8
52
20
+1.0SD
10.6
46
7
+0.5SD
9.3
41
-6
Average
8.0
35
-18
-0.5SD
6.8
30
-31
-1.0SD
5.5
24
-44
-1.5SD
4.2
19
-57
-2.0SD
2.9
13
-70
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Earnings Review
Close Bt43.25
Banking April 19, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line
1Q16 net profit ahead of estimate on lower provision Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
4.449
5.123
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐1.1%
1.3%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KKP.BK/KKP TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
846.75
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
37.00/1,046.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
44.00/33.34
52 week High / Low (Bt)
46.25/29.50
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
1,235.00
NVDR (%)
6.87
Estimated free float (%)
76.48
Beta
0.82
URL
www.kiatnakin.co.th
CGR
Switch to Underperform from Outperform We switch our rating for KKP to Underperform from Outperform as the current price posts no upside vs. our 16E target price of Bt40/share. However, the key near‐term share price catalysts could come from the appealing dividend for 2H15 of Bt2.00/share, with the XD date on 29 Apr‐ 16, as well as from the possibility of a further policy rate cut by 0.25%. 1Q16 net profit surpassed both our forecast and the street KKP posted 1Q16 net profit (NP) of Bt1,107mn (+67% YoY, +13% QoQ), beating our forecast (Bt880mn) and the street estimate (Bt955mn). The higher‐than‐expected NP was due largely to a lower‐than‐expected provision as KKP set a provision of just Bt584mn (134 bps) vs. our estimate of Bt800mn (181 bps). In our view, KKP set a lower provision this quarter as it had lower extra gain in the capital market units in 1Q16. Specifically, KKP booked gain of Bt123mn on trading and FX transactions (especially in regard to gain from the equity derivatives trading (EDT) and hedge fund units) in 1Q16 vs. Bt391mn in 4Q15 and Bt247mn in 1Q15. 1Q16 net profit stood at Bt1,107mn (+67% YoY, +13% QoQ) The stronger NP increase both YoY and QoQ was due largely to 1) its much lower provision both YoY and QoQ; 2) higher NIM on the benefit of the low interest environment; and 3) lower losses from the sale of repossessed cars (totaling Bt152mn in 1Q16 vs. Bt322mn in 1Q15 and Bt245mn in 4Q15); and 4) slightly higher gain YoY on the sale of foreclosed assets totaling Bt198mn in 1Q16 vs. Bt173mn in 1Q15. Meanwhile, loans remained weak with a drop by 4% YoY and 2% QoQ. Asset quality improved QoQ, especially in auto hire purchase loans NPLs and the NPL ratio declined QoQ to 5.7% in 1Q16 from 5.8% in 4Q15 and 6.5% in 1Q15, mainly from the lower NPLs in auto hire purchase loans. Meanwhile, its loan loss reserve (LLR) to NPL ratio improved QoQ to 98% from 92%. Its LLR to the BoT’s required LLR in 1Q16 also increased to 167% vs. 160% in 4Q15 and 150% in 1Q15. Financials and Valuation
Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
PPOP (Btm)
5,695
5,514
5,313
5,388
5,584
Net profit (Btm)
2,734
3,317
3,721
4,394
4,870
3.24
3.92
4.40
5.19
5.75
EPS growth (%)
‐38.4%
20.8%
12.2%
18.1%
10.8%
Book value (Bt)
43.52
44.79
46.71
49.76
52.92
1.85
3.00
2.20
2.30
2.40 2018E
EPS (Bt)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
Dividend (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
PER (X)
13.33
11.04
9.84
8.33
7.52
PBV (X)
0.97
0.97
0.93
0.87
0.82
Dividend yield (%)
4.28
6.94
5.08
5.32
5.55
ROE (%)
7.6%
8.9%
9.5%
10.6%
11.1%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: 1Q16 earnings results Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended December
1Q15
4Q15
1Q16
% YoY % QoQ
2015
2016E
% YoY % 1Q to 16E
Net Interest Income
2,201
2,569
2,337
6%
-9%
9,449
9,779
3%
Non Interest Income
1,201
1,403
1,444
20%
3%
4,804
5,432
13%
24% 27%
Operating Income
3,402
3,972
3,781
11%
-5%
14,252
15,211
7%
25%
Operating Expenses
1,689
2,071
1,809
7%
-13%
7,017
7,560
8%
24%
Operating Profit
1,488
1,505
1,541
4%
2%
6,224
6,161
-1%
25% 19%
Provision for loan loss (Reversal)
918
824
584
-36%
-29%
3,208
3,082
-4%
Taxes expenses (Reversal)
120
26
276
130%
955%
602
731
22%
38%
Net Profit
664
980
1,107
67%
13%
3,317
3,721
12%
30%
1,357
1,409
1,259
-7%
-11%
5,514
5,313
-4%
24%
0.79
1.16
1.31
66%
13%
3.92
4.40
12%
30%
PPOP-after tax EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn)
1Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2015
2016E
11,812
10,408
10,106
10,408
10,200
6.5%
5.8%
5.7%
5.8%
5.5%
73.9%
91.7%
98.4%
91.7%
115.6%
Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Loan Loss Reserve/Loans Tier I/Risk Asset C apital Adequacy Ratio
4.6%
5.1%
5.5%
5.1%
6.0%
15.0%
14.6%
14.5%
14.6%
15.3%
15.4%
16.5%
17.2%
16.5%
17.9%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
147.3%
180.0%
172.7%
180.0%
186.0%
Loan to Deposit & ST borrowing
147.0%
179.5%
172.3%
179.5%
185.5%
Provision to loans
2.03%
1.86%
1.34%
1.81%
1.65%
C ost to Income
49.6%
52.1%
47.8%
49.2%
49.7%
Non-interest Income/Total Income
35.3%
35.3%
38.2%
33.7%
35.7%
Net Interest Margin
3.96%
4.21%
4.51%
4.33%
4.53%
Interest Spread
3.87%
4.85%
4.94%
4.24%
4.39%
Tax rate
15.1%
2.4%
19.9%
14.9%
16.0%
Loan growth YoY
-8.3%
-3.6%
-3.8%
-3.6%
5.1%
Loan growth QoQ
-1.8%
0.6%
-2.0%
0.6%
Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
Figure 2: KKP's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 1.8
2016E
PBV (x)
1.6 +2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
1.4 1.2 1.0
Avg.
Jul-15
Apr-16
Nov-14
Jun-13
Feb-14
Jan-12
Oct-12
May-11
Dec-09
Aug-10
Jul-08
Mar-09
Oct-07
Jan-05
0.2
Jun-06
0.4
Feb-07
0.6
Sep-05
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2S.D.
0.8
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
1.3
62
44
+1.5SD
1.2
57
32
+1.0SD
1.1
52
20
+0.5SD
1.0
47
9
Average
0.9
42
-3
-0.5SD
0.8
37
-15
-1.0SD
0.7
32
-26
-1.5SD
0.6
27
-38
-2.0SD
0.5
22
-50
Figure 3: KKP's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X)
2016E
16 14
+2 S.D.
12 10 8 6 4 2
+1 S.D. Avg. -1 S.D. -2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Apr-16
Jul-15
Nov-14
Jun-13
Feb-14
Oct-12
Jan-12
May-11
Aug-10
Dec-09
Mar-09
Jul-08
Oct-07
Feb-07
Jun-06
Jan-05
Sep-05
0
PER (x)
Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
13.1
58
33
+1.5SD
11.8
52
20
+1.0SD
10.6
46
7
+0.5SD
9.3
41
-6
Average
8.0
35
-18
-0.5SD
6.8
30
-31
-1.0SD
5.5
24
-44
-1.5SD
4.2
19
-57
-2.0SD
2.9
13
-70
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
