L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making Sponsor: Transportation Research Board of the National Academies Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP II) Contractors: University of Maryland Center for Advanced Transportation Technology (CATT) National Center for Smart Growth (NCSG) Sub‐Contractors: Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Dunbar Transportation Consulting Supporting/ Implementing Agency: Maryland State Highway Administration
SHRP 2 TCC for Reliability Workshop: Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Presentation Outline •
Introduction – Review of L35B Research goals – Overview of Research Approach & Tasks
•
Early Findings & Lessons Learned – Overview of Maryland SHA’s Existing Project Prioritization Process – Summary of Methodologies to Estimate VOTTR (from the literature) – Approach to Travel Time Reliability Valuation – Binary Trees • • • •
Identify Measure of Reliability Determine Value of Travel Time Present Random Walk Metaphor for Valuation Process Present Computation of VOR by Application of Random Walk Metaphor
•
Review of Project Schedule & Deliverables
•
Question & Answer Session
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Research Goals • Select and defend a value or range of values for travel time reliability for the Maryland State Highway network • Use the VTTR in the Maryland SHA project development process to prioritize operational and capital improvements and determine if (and how) the ranking of projects changes due to the addition of VTTR • Report for the benefit of others the step‐by‐step process used to develop, justify, apply, and assess the use of VTTR in the Maryland SHA project evaluation and decision process
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Overview of Research Tasks 1.
Describe how your established processes to prioritize operational and capital improvements (baseline approach) meet the special evaluation criteria for this project. This includes analytical methods used to obtain performance metrics and a prioritization/evaluation process.
2.
Develop and apply a methodology to select a travel time reliability performance measure and a value or range of values for travel time reliability.
3.
Incorporate this performance and the value of travel time reliability into your project evaluation process and use that information to inform policy decisions about transportation alternatives.
4.
Analyze and compare alternatives using the baseline approach and the revised method that includes VTTR.
5.
Explore the sensitivity of priorities to changes/ranges of the VTTR.
6.
Brief management and/or policy board on the results of Task 4 and 5 and assess the reaction of members.
7.
Prepare a Draft Final Report including lessons learned from tasks 1‐6
8.
Prepare Final Report.
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Task 1 • Describe how your established process to prioritize operational and capital improvements (baseline approach) meet the special evaluation criteria for this project. This includes analytical methods used to obtain performance metrics and a prioritization/evaluation process. L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Overview of Existing Process(es)
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Overview of Existing Process(es) SHA Congestion Relief Project Decision Making Process
Graphic from SHRP2 LO5 Presentation by Anita Vandervalk, September 17, 2013
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Congestion Relief Project DM In addition to safety and congestion, transportation system reliability is another key factor to providing our customers with a good travel experience. From Forward 2013 SHA Mobility Report
Melinda B. Peters, SHA Administrator
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Congestion Relief Project DM • Step 1 ‐ Diagnosis
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Congestion Relief Project DM • Step 2 – Analysis – Review – Simulate – B/C
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Congestion Relief Project DM • Some Step 2 Analysis Details – VISSIM Model Calibration • Traffic volumes must be within 10% of the input volume; • Auto speeds must be +/‐ 5MPH of the vehicle probe data speed; and • Auto travel times must be within 10% of the vehicle probe data travel time
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Congestion Relief Project DM • Some Step 2 Analysis Details – Benefits: VOT and VTTR Value of Time (VOT) • Passenger: U.S. Census Bureau data • Truck driver: Bureau of Labor Statistics, US DOT, and FHWA’s HERS • Cargo: TTI, and other studies
Saving Type
Parameter Unit
Travel time
VOT
$/hr
Value of Travel Time Reliability (VTTR) • Reliability Ratio (RR=0.75) • Based on literature review and current practice in other parts of the world
Travel time reliability
VTTR
$/hr
Fuel cost
$/gal
Categories Passenger Truck driver Cargo Passenger Truck driver Cargo Gasoline Diesel
SHA Value* 29.82 20.21 45.40 22.36 15.16 34.05 3.69 3.97
*Parameters used by SHA in project benefit estimation (2012 values)
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Congestion Relief Project DM • Step 3 ‐ Selection
Location
Project Description
I‐695 Outer Loop: MD 144 on ramp continuing to MD 372
Provide additional through lane from on ramp at MD 144 to end of acceleration lane from MD 372. Includes widening and restriping and removal and replacement of retaining wall. Total project length is 2,500ft. Extend inner loop aux lane prior to interchange to connect deceleration lane to WB US40. Widen I‐695 inner loop to provide exclusive decel lane for EB US40. Includes retaining wall construction. Total length is 2,200ft. Extend outer loop aux lane prior to interchange to connect decel lane to eastbound US 40. Widen I‐695 outer loop to provide exclusive decel lane for WB US 40. Total length is 2,200ft. Extend I‐70 WB to I‐695 NB acceleration lane by 500 ft. Extend MD 122 to I‐695 NB accel lane by 1,250ft. Requires restriping of I‐695, widening to accommodate accel lane and construction of retaining wall.
I‐695 Inner Loop: US 40 Interchange
I‐695 Outer Loop: US 40 Interchange
I‐695 Outer Loop: I‐70/MD 122 to Windsor Mill Rd
Total Savings
Construction O&M Cost Cost All Values in (1000’s)
Total Cost
B/C
$27,165
$16,500
$1,650
$18,150
150%
$14,558
$10,900
$1,090
$11,990
121%
$32,894
$5,000
$500
$5,500
598%
$26,665
$13,300
$1,330
$14,630
182%
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Congestion Relief Project DM • Step 4 – Assessment
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Prioritization Process Initial Lessons Learned • Many Project DM Processes Involved • Travel Time Reliability Becoming Increasingly Popular Performance Measure • TTR Used in One Current Project Prioritization Process
Graphic from SHRP2 LO5 Presentation by Anita Vandervalk, September 17, 2013
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Task 2 • Task 2: Develop and apply a methodology to select a travel time reliability performance measure and a value or range of values for travel time reliability
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Objective of Project L35B • Provide a means for valuing travel time reliability to enhance standard procedures for evaluating the benefits and costs of operations and other highway expenditures • Provide the ability to develop local, defensible values of reliability that decision makers embrace when considering choices and tradeoffs in reaching expenditure decisions L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Valuation– General Approach Identify the measure of reliability Determine the value of travel time Obtain data on how travel time varies over time and determine the type of process describing the variation Create a metaphor for the valuation process that has exact counterparts in the physical world Compute the economic value of reliability by applying the metaphor and calculate the value of reliability relative to the value of time L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Potential Use for MD‐SHA Value of Reliability – –
• • •
Tool to analyze travel time data and to evaluate customized RR
Reliability profile along significant corridors Include unreliability cost estimates
RELIABILITY RATIOS (RR) PATH LEVEL & INTERDAY (ACROSS DAYS) CORRIDOR NAME: I495 CW 1 RELIABILITY RATIO (UNITLESS)
AM PEAK PERIOD
1
Annual Mobility Report – –
•
Input raw travel time data Estimate travel time process parameters Characterize travel time distribution and relevant metrics from its histogram Perform hypothesis testing Evaluate travel time insurance value and reliability ratios 0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 0
20
40
60 80 TIME (MINUTES)
100
1
0.6
0.4
0.2
20
40
60 80 TIME (MINUTES)
100
120
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 0
PM PEAK PERIOD
0.8
0 0
120
RELIABILITY RATIO (UNITLESS)
– – – – –
•
Highway modes (auto, truck) Corridors/regions Time of day (AM/PM peak)
RELIABILITY RATIO (UNITLESS)
•
RR=0.75?
Validate the currently adopted RR (0.75) Specify a value/range of values for RR for different
RELIABILITY RATIO (UNITLESS)
•
2
4
6 8 10 LENGTH (MILES)
12
14
16
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 0
2
4
6 8 10 LENGTH (MILES)
12
14
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Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM) – –
Update volume‐delay functions considering certainty‐equivalent extra travel times Potentially improve mode/route choice sub‐models’ performance
L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Outline • • • • • • • • • •
Travel time reliability performance measure Travel time reliability value Overview and criticism of L11 Some background Proposed valuation approach How proposed approach is different from L11? Some numerical results and simplifying relationships Ideas for implementation/application (Task 3) Summary Q&A L35‐B Local Methods for Modeling, Economic Evaluation, Justification, and Use of the Value of Travel Time Reliability in Transportation Decision Making
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Travel Time Reliability Performance Measure • Currently used by MD‐SHA – Planning Time Index (PTI) • Reliable (PTI