Labor survey Measures

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Labor survey „

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the US. ‰

„

Measures „

Current Population Survey (CPS) (60,000 randomly selected households every month)

Ministry of Labor, Health, and Welfare in Japan. ‰

Monthly labor survey (40,000 households, 100,000 adult individuals every month)

Based on the answers to the survey questions, each adult (over 16 years old in the US and over 15 years old in Japan) is placed into one of three categories: ‰ Employed = if he or she has spent most of the previous week working at a paid job. ‰ Unemployed = if he or she is on temporary layoff, is looking for a job, or is waiting for the start date of a new job. ‰ Not in the labor force = fits neither of these categories (e.g., full-time student, homemaker, or retiree). ‰ The labor force is the total number of workers (employed + unemployed).

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IEU-08 unemployment

Figure 1 The Breakdown of the Population in 2004

Employed (139.3 million)

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IEU-08 unemployment

就業状態(平成20年11月)

Labor Force (147.4 million)

4403万人

Adult Population (223.4 million)

6391万人

就業者 完全失業者 非労働人口

Unemployed (8.1 million)

256万人 Not in labor force (76.0 million)

IEU-08 unemployment

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4

1

Labor statistics „

Figure 2 Unemployment Rate Since 1960 in the US

Unemployment rate = the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.

Percent of Labor Force 10

Number unemployed Unemployment rate = × 100 Labor force

Unemployment rate

8

6

„

Labor force participation rate = the percentage of the adult population that is in the labor force. Labor force participation rate=

2

Labor force × 100 Adult population

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0

5

Long-run vs. short-run „

„

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1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

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Unemployment spells „

The natural rate of unemployment: unemployment that does not go away on its own even in the long run - it is the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences. The cyclical rate of unemployment: the year-toyear fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate - it is associated with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle.

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Natural rate of unemployment

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Short-term vs. long-term ‰ ‰

„

55 unemployed: 52 for one week, 3 for one year ‰ ‰

„

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Most spells of unemployment are short. Most unemployment observed at any given time is long-term. 95% of unemployment spells are one week 75% of unemployment is attributable to unemployed with long spells (52 weeks vs. 156 weeks=52*3)

Most unemployed will soon find jobs. Yet, most of the economy’s unemployment problem is attributable to relatively few workers who are jobless for long periods of time. IEU-08 unemployment

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2

Figure 3 Labor Force Participation Rates for Men and Women Since 1950

Table 1 The Labor-Market Experiences of Various Demographic Groups in the US

Labor-Force Participation Rate (in percent)

100 Men

80

60

40

Women

20

0

Ten thousands persons

e.g., Black youth in the US

Other people may claim to be unemployed in order to receive financial assistance, even though they aren’t looking for work.

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8000

72

7000

70 68

6000

66

5000

64

4000

62

3000

lablr force labor participation rate

60

2000

58

1000

56

0

54

19 57 19 62 19 67 19 72 19 77 19 82 19 87 19 92 19 97 20 02 20 07 20 08

„

Labor force and labor participation rate

Discouraged workers, people who would like to work but have given up looking for jobs after an unsuccessful search, don’t show up in unemployment statistics. ‰

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IEU-08 unemployment

Measurement problems: unemployed vs. not in the labor force „

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

9

%

IEU-08 unemployment

Year

11

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12

3

完全失業者率と完全失業者の対前年比増減の推移(1953-2007)

Labor participation rate in Japan

6.0

60

100.0 90.0

50 5.0

40

20

4.0

%

完全失業者数(万人) 19 53 19 56 19 59 19 62 19 65 19 68 19 71 19 74 19 77 19 80 19 83 19 86 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98 20 01 20 04 20 07

30

3.0

%

10 0

-10

80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0

total male Female

40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0

対前年比増減 完全失業率(%)

2.0

-20

2007

2001 2004

1998

1992 1995

1986 1989

1983

1977 1980

1971 1974

1968

1962 1965

1.0

1956 1959

1953

0.0

-30

Year

-40 0.0

-50

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Labor force participation rate(male)

Labor partipation rate (female)

100.0

Unemployment rate in Japan

100.0

80.0 70.0 60.0 %

50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0

総数 15~19歳 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64 65歳以上

90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

IEU-08 unemployment

IEU-08 unemployment

8.0 total male female

6.0 4.0 2.0

1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0

3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 197 197 197 197 198 198 198 198 198 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 Year

10.0

0.0

3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7

0.0

12.0

%

総数 15~19歳 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64 65歳以上

%

90.0

14

IEU-08 unemployment

Year

Year 15

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16

4

Unemployment rate(male)

Unemployment rate (female)

総数 15~24歳 25~34 35~44 45~54 55~64 65歳以上

8 %

6 4

60,000

10

50,000

総数 15~24歳 25~34 35~44 45~54 55~64 65歳以上

8 6 4

2

2

0

0

   その他    嘱託

40,000 (千人)

10

12

%

12

雇用者の雇用形態別内訳

   契約社員    労働者派遣事業所の派遣 社員    アルバイト

30,000

20,000

   パート    正規の職員・従業員

0

198 3 198 1985 1987 1999 1 199 1993 1995 7 199 2009 2001 2003 5 200 7

Mal 198 e 1984 1986 1998 1990 1992 1994 1996 2008 2000 2002 2004 6

10,000

Year

1987

1992

Year

17

IEU-08 unemployment

100%

   嘱託

   その他

70%

   契約社員

   労働者派遣事業所の派遣 社員    アルバイト

50%

30%

   パート

30%

20%

   正規の職員・従業員

20%

   労働者派遣事業所の派 遣社員    アルバイト

1997 年

2002

IEU-08 unemployment

IEU-08 unemployment

19

   労働者派遣事業所の派遣 社員    アルバイト

40%

   パート    正規の職員・従業員

   正規の職員・従業員 0%

1987

2007

   契約社員

20%

0% 1992

   嘱託

   パート

10%

0%

80%

60%

40%

10%

1987

100%

   その他    嘱託

60%

40%

雇用者の雇用形態別内訳(女・割合)

80%

   契約社員

50%

18

90%

   その他

60%

2007

雇用者の雇用形態別内訳(男・割合)

90%

70%

2002

IEU-08 unemployment

雇用者の雇用形態別内訳(割合) 100%

80%

1997 年

1992

1997 年

2002

2007

1987

IEU-08 unemployment

1992

1997 年

2002

2007

20

5

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21

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Labor force participation rate (2005) Male

Female

Japan

73.3

48.4

South Korea

74.6

50.1

U.S.

73.3

59.3

Canada

72.8

61.8

Brazil

81.2

57.0

Italy

61.2

37.9

Switzerland

75.9

59.9

Spain

68.8

46.4

Germany

65.9

50.5

France

62.0

49.2

Australia

71.5

57.0

Source: ILO, LABORSTA Internet (http://laborsta.ilo.org/ ) U.S. Department of labor (http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm) IEU-08 unemployment

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Causes of unemployment „

In an ideal labor market, wages would adjust to balance the supply and demand for labor, ensuring that all workers would be fully employed. Labor Supply

Wage

WE

Labor Demand QE IEU-08 unemployment

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Two causes of unemployment „

„

IEU-08 unemployment

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Job search

Frictional unemployment: the unemployment that results from the time that it takes to match workers with jobs. It takes time for workers to search for the jobs that are best suit their tastes and skills. Structural unemployment: the unemployment that results because the number of jobs available in some labor markets is insufficient to provide a job for everyone who wants one.

IEU-08 unemployment

Quantity of labor

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„

„

The process by which workers find appropriate jobs given their tastes and skills. Search unemployment is inevitable because the economy is always changing. ‰

Changes in the composition of demand among industries or regions are called sectoral shifts. „

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e.g., heavy manufacturing to IT

IEU-08 unemployment

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7

Government programs reducing the time for job search „

„

Government programs reducing the time for job search

Public employment agencies (hello work in Japan): give out information about job vacancies in order to match workers and jobs more quickly. Public training programs: aim to ease the transition of workers from declining to growing industries and to help disadvantaged groups escape poverty.

IEU-08 unemployment

„

Unemployment insurance: partially protect workers’ incomes when they become unemployed. ‰ ‰

Partial payment of former wages for a limited time. Unemployment insurance increases the amount of search unemployment. „ It reduces the search efforts of the unemployed (moral hazard). „ It may improve the chances of workers being matched with the right jobs.

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Minimum-wage laws

Structural unemployment

Wage

„

Structural unemployment occurs when the quantity of labor supplied exceeds the quantity demanded. ‰

„

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IEU-08 unemployment

When the minimum wage is set above the level that balances supply and demand, it creates unemployment. Labor supply

Surplus of labor = Unemployment Minimum wage

Structural unemployment is often thought to explain longer spells of unemployment.

WE

Causes ‰ ‰ ‰

Minimum-wage laws Unions Efficiency wages

Labor demand

0 IEU-08 unemployment

IEU-08 unemployment

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LD

LE IEU-08 unemployment

LS

Quantity of Labor 32

8

地 域 別

東京都最低賃金

時間額

発効日

766 円

20.10.19

産業別最賃が適用されない全 ての労働者に適用されます。





茨城県最低賃金





832 円



はん用機械器具、生産用機械器 具 製 造 業 ※ (旧名称)一般産業用機械・装 置、 真空装置・ 真空機器製造 業 業 務用 機 械器 具、 電気 機械 器 具 、 情報 通信 機械 器具 、 時 計・同部分品、眼鏡製造業 ※ (旧名称 )電気機械器具、 情 報通信機械器具、精密機械器具 製造業

最低賃金額 時間額(円)

676

適用範囲

平成 20.10.19

茨城県内の事業所で働く す べ て の 労 働 者 (下表の特定(産業別) 最低賃金が適用される労 働者を除く。 )

アメリカ

カナダ イギリス 一般(22 歳/years old) 若年者(18~21)

820 円 20.12.31 より

817 円

自 動 車・ 同 附属 品 製造 業 、 船 舶 製 造 ・ 修 理 業 . 舶 用 機 関 製 造 業 、 航空機・同 附属品製造業

819 円

(20.12.31 より2件 について は件名が 変わりま したが、 適用され る使用者 及び労働 者に変更 はありま せん。 )

(円/時間)(Yen/hour) 687 (ドル/時間)(US$/hour)

日本

効力発生年月日

次の労働者には東京都最低賃 金 が 適 用 さ れ ま す 。

フランス 中国

・18歳未満又は65歳以上 の 者 ・雇入れ後6月未満の者であ っ て 技能 取得 中の もの ・清掃又は片付けの業務に主 と し て 従 事 す る 者 ・業務用機械器具、電気機械 器具、情報通信機械器具、時 計・同部分品、眼鏡製造業の 一部の作業に従事する者

深? 市/Shenzhen 天津市/Tianjin 上海市/Shanghai 北京市/Peking

韓国 出





各種商品小売業

813 円

タイ フィリピン 非農業/Non-agriculture 農業/Agriculture

787 円

インドネシ ア IEU-08 unemployment

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A union is a worker association that bargains with employers over wages and working conditions. ‰

„ „

IEU-08 unemployment

„

34

A union is a type of cartel attempting to exert its market power. The process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment is called collective bargaining. IEU-08 unemployment

A strike will be organized if the union and the firm cannot reach an agreement. ‰

Percentage of unionized workers has reduced: 1/3 in the US and 60% in Japan in the 1940s and 1950s; less than 20% in Japan in 2003.

IEU-08 unemployment

(ユーロ/時間) (Euro/hour) 8.44 (元/月)(Yuan/month) 810 740 750 730 (ウォン/時間)(Won/hour) 3,770 (ウォン/日)(Won/day) 30,160 (バーツ/日) (Baht/day) 191 (ペソ/日) (Peso /day) 362 325 (ルピア/月)(Rupiah/month) 900,560

Unions

Unions „

5.85 (カナダドル/間) (CA$/hour) 7.00 ~10.25 (ポンド/時間)(£/hour) 5.52 4.6

35

„

A strike refers to when the union organizes a withdrawal of labor from the firm.

Unions usually achieve above-equilibrium wages for their members. ‰

‰

Union workers earn 10 to 20 percent more than nonunion workers. Workers in unions (insiders) reap the benefits of collective bargaining, while workers not in the union (outsiders) bear some of the costs. IEU-08 unemployment

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9

Unions „

Unions cause the allocation of labor to be inefficient and inequitable. ‰

‰

„

Efficiency wages „

Wages above the competitive level reduce the quantity of labor demanded and cause unemployment. Some workers benefit at the expense of other workers.

Efficiency wages are above-equilibrium wages paid by firms in order to increase worker productivity. ‰

‰

‰

Unions are a necessary antidote to the market power of firms that hire workers. ‰

Unions are important for helping firms respond efficiently to workers’ concerns. IEU-08 unemployment

IEU-08 unemployment

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‰

Worker Health: Better paid workers eat a better diet and thus are more productive (in particular, LDC). Worker Turnover: A higher paid worker is less likely to look for another job (high cost of turnover). Worker Effort: Higher wages motivate workers to put forward their best effort (high cost of shirking) – moral hazard. Worker Quality: Higher wages attract a better pool of workers to apply for jobs – adverse selection.

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38

10