LAMENSDORF MARKET
EDITOR: DICK STERN
+100%
75%
CIO: BRAD LAMENSDORF
50%
25%
0%
s
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
-25%
-50%
40.0%
s The charts and graphs presented in LMTR’s newsletter are not produced by LMTR. The interpretation of the charts and graphs is only the opinion of LMTR and does not reflect the associated firms’ opinions.
Sentiment Returns to Overbought Territory The anticipated mid-October bounce has now occurred. Simultaneously, the sentiment gauges have once again moved into overbought territory. The negative divergences left in the wake of the October correction are perhaps even more disturbing. When looking at volume, breadth and an excessively thin list of 52-week highs, it becomes clear that 2014 was a distinct period in a very large topping process. This situation will lead to a significantly lower market in the year to come.
1 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
19 92 18 80 17 74 16 74 15 79 14 90 14 06 13 27 12 52 11 82 11 15 10 52 9 93 9 37 8 84 8 34 7 87 7 43 7 01
Standard & Poor's 500 Index Gain/Annum When: Signal Dates 12/30/1994 - 11/19/2014 Composite Sentiment is
Gain/ Annum
% of Time
* Above 62.5
-10. 1
28. 4
41.5 - 62.5
7. 5
44. 7
Below 41.5
31. 3
26. 9
Standard & Poor's 500 Index Gain/Annum When: Signal Dates 1/03/2006 - 11/19/2014
J
S
D
M
2007
J
S
D
M
2008
Gain/ Annum
% of Time
-9. 3
30. 5
41.5 - 62.5
1. 5
41. 1
Below 41.5
31. 4
Composite Sentiment is * Above 62.5
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
2006
(DAVIS265)
Daily Data 1/03/2006 - 11/19/2014 (Log Scale)
Standard & Poor's 500 Index
M
90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
NOVEMBER 2014
J
S
D
M
2009
J
S
D
M
2010
J
S
D
M
2011
J
S
D
M
2012
J
S
D
M
2013
J
S
D
M
2014
28. 4
J
S
Excessive Optimism
11/19/2014 = 70.0
Extreme Pessimism
1992 1880 1774 1674 1579 1490 1406 1327 1252 1182 1115 1052 993 937 884 834 787 743 701
90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
The reading of last month’s NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite suggested that short term-fear had returned to the marketplace. This month’s reading of 70.4 clearly indicates that the market has now moved into overbought territory.
NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite
Copyright 2014 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.
Last month’s newsletter highlighted the fact that the Short-Term Composite Indicator retreated to an extremely oversold level 5. This indicator has now moved up all the way to a level 71.3, which is definitely in the overbought range.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Stockcube Research Ltd. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. www.investorintelligence.com
2 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
2002-07-31 to 2014-11-18 (Log Scale)
S&P 500 Composite Index 1,998
(Updated weekly on Wednesday mornings)
Extremes Generated when Sentiment Reading: Rises above 61.5% = Extreme Optimism Declines below 55.5% = Extreme Pessimism
1,808 1,636
1,998
Average Value Of Indicator At: Optimistic Extremes (down arrows)= 68.2 Pessimistic Extremes (up arrows)= 46.9 Average Spread Between Extremes = 21.5
1,808 1,636
Sentiment must reverse by 10 percentage points to signal an extreme in addition to the above extreme levels being reached.
1,480
1,480
1,339
1,339
1,212
1,212
1,097
1,097
992 Arrows represent extremes in optimism and pessimism. They do not represent buy and sell signals and can only be known for certain (and added to the chart) in hindsight.
812 735 665
NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll is: * Above 61.5 Between 55.5 and 61.5
898 % of Time
2.7
41.9
8.7
20.7
10.0
37.4
812 735 665
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
73.5
71.9
70.5
69.6
68.1
2009
2010
2011
Extreme Optimism (Bearish)
75.7
70
72.2 69.8
69.5
59.4
45 43.8
33.9 33.9
70
68.3
65
63.2
60
51.3
49.9 47.6
46.6
55 53.3
50.3 47.2
46.8
42.5
48.2
38.0
40 38.4
37.1 32.5
30.9
50 45
40.5
Extreme Pessimism (Bullish)
At 72.2, intermediate-term sentiment gauges have also moved into the overbought range.
75
73.9
55.2 49.7
35
2015
71.6
70.7
54.8 51.9
40
2014
58.1
53.5
50
2013
73.0
70.7
62.3
60
2012
67.1
65
30
% Gain/ Annum
Below 55.5
75
55
992
S&P 500 Index Gain/Annum When: 1995-12-01 to 2014-11-18
898
35
Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.
2014-11-18 = 72.2
30
NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll S574
© Copyright 2014 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
The Investor’s Intelligence Bullish-Bearish survey has also returned to an overbought position. The spread is currently over 40.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Investors Intelligence. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
3 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
This chart shows the S&P500 and the volume of shares traded daily in its security. A red bar indicates that volume was down for that day. Conversely, a green bar illustrates up volume for that particular day. Note that significant spikes in volume over the last two years have been to the downside. However, the rallies have occurred on below average volume.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Bloomberg L.P. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
The next three breadth indicators are useful for understanding the underlying strength of a trend. The first chart shows the bullish % of the S&P500. For over a year the market has been hitting a series of higher highs. However, the bullish %’s have continued to hit a series of lower highs and lower lows. This negative divergence shows that the strength of the trend is weakening substantially.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Investors Intelligence. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
4 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
Analyzing the % of stocks over their 200-day moving average is useful. The current trend of lower highs is another negative divergence. It illustrates that a large majority of stocks are failing to follow the index to higher highs.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Ned Davis Research www.ndr.com. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Likewise, the Nasdaq High-Low Index continues to show more negative divergences. Nasdaq trends are currently weaker than the general market.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Stockcube Research Ltd. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. www.investorintelligence.com
5 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
The price/sales ratio is often used as a valuation metric in the place of earnings because of the common belief that revenues are more difficult to manipulate than earnings. This ratio is useful for both individual stocks and for the market as a whole. At the end of the third quarter of 2014, the price/sales ratio on the S&P500 stood at an exceedingly high 1.70x; flashing a bright red warning sign for the broader market. As one can see in this NDR chart, this level is only breached 27% of the time with an annual gain of a paltry 70 bps. The level of the price/sales ratio is well outside normal bounds going back to the 1950’s. Overall, the current market is highly overvalued. No single sector completely dominates the stock market. Furthermore the overvaluation is broad, even higher than it was during the financial bubble of 2005-07. While one could have gained relative performance on the long side by avoiding technology stocks in 2000-02 or financial stocks in 2007-08, there is no such opportunity in today’s market. The current price/sales ratio reveals to investors that everything is richly priced; a situation unlike anything seen in the last 60 years. This is risky because when the market trend turns to the downside, there will be nowhere to hide.
6 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
LMTR currently has a negative view of the market due to poor market breadth and sentiment. There are also a few items outside our main menu of indicators that serve to bolster our negative outlook. One such item is the amount of covenant-lite loans being issued. The other is the startling number of money-losing IPO’s being issued. Investors are being less cautious in their outlook of new publicly traded companies. In a realistic market environment it would be impossible to issue so many IPO’s that are losing money.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Cantor Navigator Cross-Asset Research. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Covenant-lite loans as a percentage of issuance have exploded during the past two years. They reached a peak in 2007 at 30% but have now skyrocketed to 60%, which is definitely excessive. Such financings are “subprime” because they are given limited borrower restrictions for collateral, payment terms and level of income.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Bloomberg Finance LP. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. www.sentimenTrader.com
7 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
CONCLUSION The anticipated fourth quarter bounce has come and gone, and the majority of gains have now been captured. At this point both the short and long-term gauges are in overbought territory. From the issuance of covenant-lite loans to the record use of margin on the NYSE, we are beginning to note a shocking amount of leverage in the system. Perhaps most alarming is that 35% of year-to-date auto loans fall into the subprime category. Raising cash and hedging are recommended in such a high-risk environment. LMTR subscribers received a special alert last month advising them to cover their short exposure. We now recommend moving to -40%, either through hedges or cash. For those who do not short, it is time to go to maximum cash.
SUBSCRIBE TO THIS NEWSLETTER Sign up at the new LMTR.com Contact us today to recieve this newsletter at the low annual price of just $299. Phone: 203-557-3006
Email: [email protected]
Please send a check to: LMTR PO Box 5087, Westport, CT 06881 We also accept
DISCLAIMER Lamensdorf Market Timing Report is a publication intended to give analytical research to the investment community. Lamensdorf Market Timing Report is not rendering investment advice based on investment portfolios and is not registered as an investment advisor in any jurisdiction. Information included in this report is derived from many sources believed to be reliable but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, or that errors, if discovered, will be corrected. The authors of this report have not audited the financial statements of the companies discussed and do not represent that they are serving as independent public accountants with respect to them. They have not audited the statements and therefore do not express an opinion on them. The authors have also not conducted a thorough review of the financial statements as defined by standards established by the AICPA. This report is not intended, and shall not constitute, and nothing herein should be construed as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities referred to in this report, or a “buy” or “sell” recommendation. Rather, this research is intended to identify issues portfolio managers should be aware of for them to assess their own opinion of positive or negative potential. The LMTR newsletter is NOT affiliated with any ETF’s Nor any investment Advisors.
W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected] Copyright © 2014 Lamensdorf Market Timing Report.
NOVEMBER 2014
BIO
Brad Lamensdorf, a seasoned money manager and market strategist, is the CIO of The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report, a newsletter designed to help investors improve performance via market timing by assessing the environment of the stock market using a variety of technical, fundamental and sentiment-oriented tools from powerful independent research firms. Many investors mechanically enter and depart the market without a true “game plan.” Studies have shown that retail investors, in particular, are very poor market timers, tending to invest at or near market peaks and sell at or near market lows. The newsletter is designed to provide risk parameters for both professional and retail investors around the short-term stock market environment, giving subscribers better insight about when to allocate assets into or out of the equity markets. Lamensdorf, a frequent guest commentator and analyst on major business networks including CNBC, CNN and Fox Business News, also serves as a Portfolio Manager and Principal of Ranger Alternative Management LP, a sub-advisor to the Advisor Shares Ranger Equity Bear Exchange Traded Fund (NYSE: HDGE). In this role, he conducts top-down technical evaluations of broader market liquidity, sentiment and breadth to help identify short and intermediate-term market trends, manage exposure and mitigate risk. HDGE was launched in 2011 and is the first and sole actively managed, short-only ETF in existence. Lamensdorf, also has managed investment portfolios for the Hughes family and was principal of Tarpon Partners, managing a long/short fund that was up more than 200% gross over six years. Earlier in his career, he was as an equity trader/market strategist for Taylor and Company, the Bass brothers’ trading arm, co-managing a short-only strategy in a derivative format with national exposure. He also served as the in-house market timing strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass managers.
+100%
75%
CIO: BRAD LAMENSDORF
50%
25%
0%
s
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
-25%
-50%
40.0%
s The charts and graphs presented in LMTR’s newsletter are not produced by LMTR. The interpretation of the charts and graphs is only the opinion of LMTR and does not reflect the associated firms’ opinions.
Sentiment Returns to Overbought Territory The anticipated mid-October bounce has now occurred. Simultaneously, the sentiment gauges have once again moved into overbought territory. The negative divergences left in the wake of the October correction are perhaps even more disturbing. When looking at volume, breadth and an excessively thin list of 52-week highs, it becomes clear that 2014 was a distinct period in a very large topping process. This situation will lead to a significantly lower market in the year to come.
1 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
19 92 18 80 17 74 16 74 15 79 14 90 14 06 13 27 12 52 11 82 11 15 10 52 9 93 9 37 8 84 8 34 7 87 7 43 7 01
Standard & Poor's 500 Index Gain/Annum When: Signal Dates 12/30/1994 - 11/19/2014 Composite Sentiment is
Gain/ Annum
% of Time
* Above 62.5
-10. 1
28. 4
41.5 - 62.5
7. 5
44. 7
Below 41.5
31. 3
26. 9
Standard & Poor's 500 Index Gain/Annum When: Signal Dates 1/03/2006 - 11/19/2014
J
S
D
M
2007
J
S
D
M
2008
Gain/ Annum
% of Time
-9. 3
30. 5
41.5 - 62.5
1. 5
41. 1
Below 41.5
31. 4
Composite Sentiment is * Above 62.5
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
2006
(DAVIS265)
Daily Data 1/03/2006 - 11/19/2014 (Log Scale)
Standard & Poor's 500 Index
M
90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
NOVEMBER 2014
J
S
D
M
2009
J
S
D
M
2010
J
S
D
M
2011
J
S
D
M
2012
J
S
D
M
2013
J
S
D
M
2014
28. 4
J
S
Excessive Optimism
11/19/2014 = 70.0
Extreme Pessimism
1992 1880 1774 1674 1579 1490 1406 1327 1252 1182 1115 1052 993 937 884 834 787 743 701
90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
The reading of last month’s NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite suggested that short term-fear had returned to the marketplace. This month’s reading of 70.4 clearly indicates that the market has now moved into overbought territory.
NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite
Copyright 2014 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/.
Last month’s newsletter highlighted the fact that the Short-Term Composite Indicator retreated to an extremely oversold level 5. This indicator has now moved up all the way to a level 71.3, which is definitely in the overbought range.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Stockcube Research Ltd. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. www.investorintelligence.com
2 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
2002-07-31 to 2014-11-18 (Log Scale)
S&P 500 Composite Index 1,998
(Updated weekly on Wednesday mornings)
Extremes Generated when Sentiment Reading: Rises above 61.5% = Extreme Optimism Declines below 55.5% = Extreme Pessimism
1,808 1,636
1,998
Average Value Of Indicator At: Optimistic Extremes (down arrows)= 68.2 Pessimistic Extremes (up arrows)= 46.9 Average Spread Between Extremes = 21.5
1,808 1,636
Sentiment must reverse by 10 percentage points to signal an extreme in addition to the above extreme levels being reached.
1,480
1,480
1,339
1,339
1,212
1,212
1,097
1,097
992 Arrows represent extremes in optimism and pessimism. They do not represent buy and sell signals and can only be known for certain (and added to the chart) in hindsight.
812 735 665
NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll is: * Above 61.5 Between 55.5 and 61.5
898 % of Time
2.7
41.9
8.7
20.7
10.0
37.4
812 735 665
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
73.5
71.9
70.5
69.6
68.1
2009
2010
2011
Extreme Optimism (Bearish)
75.7
70
72.2 69.8
69.5
59.4
45 43.8
33.9 33.9
70
68.3
65
63.2
60
51.3
49.9 47.6
46.6
55 53.3
50.3 47.2
46.8
42.5
48.2
38.0
40 38.4
37.1 32.5
30.9
50 45
40.5
Extreme Pessimism (Bullish)
At 72.2, intermediate-term sentiment gauges have also moved into the overbought range.
75
73.9
55.2 49.7
35
2015
71.6
70.7
54.8 51.9
40
2014
58.1
53.5
50
2013
73.0
70.7
62.3
60
2012
67.1
65
30
% Gain/ Annum
Below 55.5
75
55
992
S&P 500 Index Gain/Annum When: 1995-12-01 to 2014-11-18
898
35
Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.
2014-11-18 = 72.2
30
NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll S574
© Copyright 2014 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/
The Investor’s Intelligence Bullish-Bearish survey has also returned to an overbought position. The spread is currently over 40.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Investors Intelligence. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
3 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
This chart shows the S&P500 and the volume of shares traded daily in its security. A red bar indicates that volume was down for that day. Conversely, a green bar illustrates up volume for that particular day. Note that significant spikes in volume over the last two years have been to the downside. However, the rallies have occurred on below average volume.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Bloomberg L.P. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
The next three breadth indicators are useful for understanding the underlying strength of a trend. The first chart shows the bullish % of the S&P500. For over a year the market has been hitting a series of higher highs. However, the bullish %’s have continued to hit a series of lower highs and lower lows. This negative divergence shows that the strength of the trend is weakening substantially.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Investors Intelligence. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
4 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
Analyzing the % of stocks over their 200-day moving average is useful. The current trend of lower highs is another negative divergence. It illustrates that a large majority of stocks are failing to follow the index to higher highs.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Ned Davis Research www.ndr.com. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Likewise, the Nasdaq High-Low Index continues to show more negative divergences. Nasdaq trends are currently weaker than the general market.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Stockcube Research Ltd. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. www.investorintelligence.com
5 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
The price/sales ratio is often used as a valuation metric in the place of earnings because of the common belief that revenues are more difficult to manipulate than earnings. This ratio is useful for both individual stocks and for the market as a whole. At the end of the third quarter of 2014, the price/sales ratio on the S&P500 stood at an exceedingly high 1.70x; flashing a bright red warning sign for the broader market. As one can see in this NDR chart, this level is only breached 27% of the time with an annual gain of a paltry 70 bps. The level of the price/sales ratio is well outside normal bounds going back to the 1950’s. Overall, the current market is highly overvalued. No single sector completely dominates the stock market. Furthermore the overvaluation is broad, even higher than it was during the financial bubble of 2005-07. While one could have gained relative performance on the long side by avoiding technology stocks in 2000-02 or financial stocks in 2007-08, there is no such opportunity in today’s market. The current price/sales ratio reveals to investors that everything is richly priced; a situation unlike anything seen in the last 60 years. This is risky because when the market trend turns to the downside, there will be nowhere to hide.
6 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
NOVEMBER 2014
LMTR currently has a negative view of the market due to poor market breadth and sentiment. There are also a few items outside our main menu of indicators that serve to bolster our negative outlook. One such item is the amount of covenant-lite loans being issued. The other is the startling number of money-losing IPO’s being issued. Investors are being less cautious in their outlook of new publicly traded companies. In a realistic market environment it would be impossible to issue so many IPO’s that are losing money.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Cantor Navigator Cross-Asset Research. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Covenant-lite loans as a percentage of issuance have exploded during the past two years. They reached a peak in 2007 at 30% but have now skyrocketed to 60%, which is definitely excessive. Such financings are “subprime” because they are given limited borrower restrictions for collateral, payment terms and level of income.
© Copyright 2014, All Rights Reserved Bloomberg Finance LP. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. www.sentimenTrader.com
7 W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected]
LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT
CONCLUSION The anticipated fourth quarter bounce has come and gone, and the majority of gains have now been captured. At this point both the short and long-term gauges are in overbought territory. From the issuance of covenant-lite loans to the record use of margin on the NYSE, we are beginning to note a shocking amount of leverage in the system. Perhaps most alarming is that 35% of year-to-date auto loans fall into the subprime category. Raising cash and hedging are recommended in such a high-risk environment. LMTR subscribers received a special alert last month advising them to cover their short exposure. We now recommend moving to -40%, either through hedges or cash. For those who do not short, it is time to go to maximum cash.
SUBSCRIBE TO THIS NEWSLETTER Sign up at the new LMTR.com Contact us today to recieve this newsletter at the low annual price of just $299. Phone: 203-557-3006
Email: [email protected]
Please send a check to: LMTR PO Box 5087, Westport, CT 06881 We also accept
DISCLAIMER Lamensdorf Market Timing Report is a publication intended to give analytical research to the investment community. Lamensdorf Market Timing Report is not rendering investment advice based on investment portfolios and is not registered as an investment advisor in any jurisdiction. Information included in this report is derived from many sources believed to be reliable but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, or that errors, if discovered, will be corrected. The authors of this report have not audited the financial statements of the companies discussed and do not represent that they are serving as independent public accountants with respect to them. They have not audited the statements and therefore do not express an opinion on them. The authors have also not conducted a thorough review of the financial statements as defined by standards established by the AICPA. This report is not intended, and shall not constitute, and nothing herein should be construed as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities referred to in this report, or a “buy” or “sell” recommendation. Rather, this research is intended to identify issues portfolio managers should be aware of for them to assess their own opinion of positive or negative potential. The LMTR newsletter is NOT affiliated with any ETF’s Nor any investment Advisors.
W E S T P O R T, C O N N E C T I C U T [email protected] Copyright © 2014 Lamensdorf Market Timing Report.
NOVEMBER 2014
BIO
Brad Lamensdorf, a seasoned money manager and market strategist, is the CIO of The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report, a newsletter designed to help investors improve performance via market timing by assessing the environment of the stock market using a variety of technical, fundamental and sentiment-oriented tools from powerful independent research firms. Many investors mechanically enter and depart the market without a true “game plan.” Studies have shown that retail investors, in particular, are very poor market timers, tending to invest at or near market peaks and sell at or near market lows. The newsletter is designed to provide risk parameters for both professional and retail investors around the short-term stock market environment, giving subscribers better insight about when to allocate assets into or out of the equity markets. Lamensdorf, a frequent guest commentator and analyst on major business networks including CNBC, CNN and Fox Business News, also serves as a Portfolio Manager and Principal of Ranger Alternative Management LP, a sub-advisor to the Advisor Shares Ranger Equity Bear Exchange Traded Fund (NYSE: HDGE). In this role, he conducts top-down technical evaluations of broader market liquidity, sentiment and breadth to help identify short and intermediate-term market trends, manage exposure and mitigate risk. HDGE was launched in 2011 and is the first and sole actively managed, short-only ETF in existence. Lamensdorf, also has managed investment portfolios for the Hughes family and was principal of Tarpon Partners, managing a long/short fund that was up more than 200% gross over six years. Earlier in his career, he was as an equity trader/market strategist for Taylor and Company, the Bass brothers’ trading arm, co-managing a short-only strategy in a derivative format with national exposure. He also served as the in-house market timing strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass managers.
