Lecture 1: Global Oil Markets
Venezuelan Oil Production and Exports Center for Strategic and International Studies July 22, 2010 Lisa Viscidi New York Bureau Chief
Debate Over Venezuelan Oil Production
Venezuelan Official Data, Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Energy Intelligence Estimates Source: Oil Market Intelligence International Energy Agency Estimates
Venezuelan Production: EIG Estimates
Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (EIG) is one of 6 secondary sources used by Opec to estimate Venezuelan production In 2009, Caracas started a transparency initiative, publishing boat-by-boat exports, based on the bill of discharge certificates issued for each cargo provided to the British inspecting and testing company Inspectorate. EIG estimates monthly Venezuelan production, based on data for exports and domestic production. Venezuelan Crude Exports and Production Crude Exports Jose Orinoco Other Other Ports Guaraguao Puerto Miranda El Palito Bajo Grande La Salina Corocoro FSO Crude Exports Domestic Crude Use Crude Production
Apr-10 1,268 396 871 640 355 95 0 98 42 50 1,908 656 2,564
Mar-10Change 1,218 455 763 680 395 132 0 87 41 25 1,897 664 2,561
+50 -59 +109 -40 -40 -37 0 +11 +1 +25 +11 -8 +3
Venezuelan Oil Markets
Exports markets (Crude and Products 2009)
United States Central America Caribbean South America China Europe
Domestic demand
1,078,000 b/d 39,960 b/d 181,422 b/d 104,774 b/d 197,000 b/d 276,000 b/d 542,000 b/d
Exports to the US
The US remains Venezuela’s largest market. PDVSA has assets in the US through its downstream subsidiary Citgo, including several refineries equipped to process Venezuela’s heavy crude. However, exports to the US are clearly declining.
Source: EIA
China: the New Market?
China’s Oil-for-Loan: China Development Bank agreed to lend Venezuela $20 billion to finance infrastructure and other projects, to be repaid over 10 years with Venezuelan crude supplies, in addition to $8 billion China previously injected into a bilateral $12 billion investment fund, bringing the total to $28 billion. Trade Flows China seems to be establishing a trading presence in the Americas, buying refineries and storage facilities in the region, so its investment in Venezuelan oil could be aimed more at selling to regional markets than taking crude back to China. Some cargoes are diverted to Singapore, where PetroChina has a large storage, refining and trading presence, so the real flows of Venezuelan oil to China may be higher than official statistics show.
Regional Exports Venezuela exports significant volumes of oil to Latin American countries, largely through its aid scheme Petrocaribe 2009 Imports from Venezuela Crude Product 15,890 8,219 2,393 13,458
(b/d) Nicaragua Other
Total 24,110 15,851
Central America Cuba*^
18,283 98,000
21,677 17,000
39,960 115,000
Dominican Rep. Other Caribbean Brazil Ecuador Paraguay Uruguay* Other
18,074 25,805 141,879 587 17,129 10,750
15,422 7,121 39,543 11,910 45,555 9,669 9,174
33,496 32,926 181,422 12,497 45,555 9,669 17,129 19,924
South America Total
28,466 188,628
76,308 137,528
104,774 326,156
Based on data reported by country energy ministries *2008. ^unofficial crude and product estimates.
Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt According to government estimates, the two projects auctioned in Carabobo and projects directly assigned in Junin will increase production by over 2 million barrels per day by the second half of the decade.
Petrovietnam
Junin 2
200,000
China National Petroleum Corp
Junin 4
400,000
Eni
Junin 5
240,000
Russian National Oil Consortium
Junin 6
450,000
Repsol‐led Consortium
Carabobo 1
400,000
Chevron‐led Consortium
Carabobo 3
400,000
Total
2,090,000
Oil Production Projections
As production of synthetic crude from the Orinoco increases, traditional production is declining.
Source: EIG
Thank you!
Debate Over Venezuelan Oil Production
Venezuelan Official Data, Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Energy Intelligence Estimates Source: Oil Market Intelligence International Energy Agency Estimates
Venezuelan Production: EIG Estimates
Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (EIG) is one of 6 secondary sources used by Opec to estimate Venezuelan production In 2009, Caracas started a transparency initiative, publishing boat-by-boat exports, based on the bill of discharge certificates issued for each cargo provided to the British inspecting and testing company Inspectorate. EIG estimates monthly Venezuelan production, based on data for exports and domestic production. Venezuelan Crude Exports and Production Crude Exports Jose Orinoco Other Other Ports Guaraguao Puerto Miranda El Palito Bajo Grande La Salina Corocoro FSO Crude Exports Domestic Crude Use Crude Production
Apr-10 1,268 396 871 640 355 95 0 98 42 50 1,908 656 2,564
Mar-10Change 1,218 455 763 680 395 132 0 87 41 25 1,897 664 2,561
+50 -59 +109 -40 -40 -37 0 +11 +1 +25 +11 -8 +3
Venezuelan Oil Markets
Exports markets (Crude and Products 2009)
United States Central America Caribbean South America China Europe
Domestic demand
1,078,000 b/d 39,960 b/d 181,422 b/d 104,774 b/d 197,000 b/d 276,000 b/d 542,000 b/d
Exports to the US
The US remains Venezuela’s largest market. PDVSA has assets in the US through its downstream subsidiary Citgo, including several refineries equipped to process Venezuela’s heavy crude. However, exports to the US are clearly declining.
Source: EIA
China: the New Market?
China’s Oil-for-Loan: China Development Bank agreed to lend Venezuela $20 billion to finance infrastructure and other projects, to be repaid over 10 years with Venezuelan crude supplies, in addition to $8 billion China previously injected into a bilateral $12 billion investment fund, bringing the total to $28 billion. Trade Flows China seems to be establishing a trading presence in the Americas, buying refineries and storage facilities in the region, so its investment in Venezuelan oil could be aimed more at selling to regional markets than taking crude back to China. Some cargoes are diverted to Singapore, where PetroChina has a large storage, refining and trading presence, so the real flows of Venezuelan oil to China may be higher than official statistics show.
Regional Exports Venezuela exports significant volumes of oil to Latin American countries, largely through its aid scheme Petrocaribe 2009 Imports from Venezuela Crude Product 15,890 8,219 2,393 13,458
(b/d) Nicaragua Other
Total 24,110 15,851
Central America Cuba*^
18,283 98,000
21,677 17,000
39,960 115,000
Dominican Rep. Other Caribbean Brazil Ecuador Paraguay Uruguay* Other
18,074 25,805 141,879 587 17,129 10,750
15,422 7,121 39,543 11,910 45,555 9,669 9,174
33,496 32,926 181,422 12,497 45,555 9,669 17,129 19,924
South America Total
28,466 188,628
76,308 137,528
104,774 326,156
Based on data reported by country energy ministries *2008. ^unofficial crude and product estimates.
Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt According to government estimates, the two projects auctioned in Carabobo and projects directly assigned in Junin will increase production by over 2 million barrels per day by the second half of the decade.
Petrovietnam
Junin 2
200,000
China National Petroleum Corp
Junin 4
400,000
Eni
Junin 5
240,000
Russian National Oil Consortium
Junin 6
450,000
Repsol‐led Consortium
Carabobo 1
400,000
Chevron‐led Consortium
Carabobo 3
400,000
Total
2,090,000
Oil Production Projections
As production of synthetic crude from the Orinoco increases, traditional production is declining.
Source: EIG
Thank you!
