Liquid Fuel Security Through Diverse Energy Alternatives
Millions of of Barrels Barrels Per Per Day Day Millions
Liquid Fuel Security Through Diverse Energy Alternatives 28 28 26 26 24 24 22 22 20 20 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 88 66 44 22 00 2006 2006 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 2022 2022 2024 2024 2026 2026 2028 2028 2030 2030
Carl O. Bauer, Director National Energy Technology Laboratory Office of Fossil Energy December 12, 2006
)
Reference: D. Garman June 15, 2006, CSIS presentation, slide 26
2
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
U.S. Resources Much Larger Than World’s Proved Oil Reserves U.S. Hydrocarbon Resources (Total remaining endowment 8,572 billion bbls oil equivalent*) Petroleum Reserves – 22 (EIA) Remaining Original Oil in Place – 307 % recoverable uncertain
Coal Resources – 5,971 (EIA)
7x World’s Proved Oil Reserves Units are in billion bbl-oil-equivalent coal – 10K BTU / lb oil – 6M BTU/bbl 3
Oil Shale Resources – 2,118 (USGS)
(DOE / NETL)
Oil (Tar) Sand – 54 (DOE) Heavy Oil – 100 (NETL)
*Not including energy losses in transformation to liquid fuel Reference: D. Garman June 15, 2006 CSIS presentation, slide 26, excluding fuel already consumed and coal updated per EIA 2004; BP Annual Energy Review C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
U.S. Endowment of Solid, Liquid, and Gaseous Fuels Resources 98.6% of energy potential requires advanced technology and additional exploration
42x
Technically Recoverable Natural Gas Alaskan Coalbed Methane
Alaskan Coal (hypothetical)
l Coa vered isco Und Inferred
Total U.S. technically and economically recoverable + 400 coal + 226 “SSEB coal survey” + 22 petroleum + 32 natural gas
Measured
Sha le
World’s Proved Oil Reserves
680 billion b.o.e. (1.4% of total) Remaining Oil (EOR)
Methane Hydrates
Heavy Oil, Oil (Tar) Sands
50 trillion barrels of oil equivalent 4
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
World Oil Prices in Three Cases (AEO’06 ) $100.00
Dollars per Barrel (2004 $)
100
High Price
$95.71 (2030)
$80.00 80
AEO’07 Reference early release (2004 $)
$57.39
$60.00 60
Reference
$56.97 (2030)
$40.00 40
Low Price
$33.73 (2030)
20 $20.00
0 $0.00 1980 1980
History 1990 1990 1990
Projections 2000 2000 1980 2000
2010 2010
2020 2020 2020
2030 2030 2030
High Price Case Considered in NETL Energy Alternatives Analysis 5
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006 Reference: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006, J. Conti, March 27, 2006, AEO’06 Presentation EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, early release, December 5, 2006, converted to 2004 dollars
Liquid Fuels Energy Security Total Supply AEO’06 (High Oil Price)
Millions of Barrels Per Day
28 26 24 22 20 18
13.3 MMbpd 53%
Imports (Crude)
16 14 12
12.4 MMbpd 58% Imports (Product)
10 8 6 4
11.9 MMbpd 47%
Domestic Supply
9.0 MMbpd 42%
2 0 2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Imports Remain >50% of Liquids Supply 6
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
Liquid Fuels Energy Security Total Supply AEO’06 (High Oil Price)
Millions of Barrels Per Day
28 26 24 22 20 18 16
Imports (Crude)
14 12 10 8 6
AEO’06 forecast of: Ethanol (cellulose) CTL Oil Shale
Imports (Product)
Domestic Supply
4 2 0 2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2.2 MMbpd of CTL, Oil Shale, and Cellulosic Ethanol Added (2030) 7
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
Cumulative Domestic Energy Alternatives Supporting U.S. Liquids Supply Total Supply AEO’06 (High Oil Price Case)
Millions of Barrels Per Day
28 26 24 22 20
3.9 MMpbd (15%) AEO’06 forecast
18 16
Imports
14 12 10
H2 FCVs (coal) Wind (plug-ins) Nuclear (plug-ins) Coal (plug-ins)
Forecast Domestic Supply (excluding alternatives)
Oil Sands Methane Hydrates Biomass (Gasification) Cellulosic Ethanol
8 6 4
Added Alternatives
2 0
(added)
EOR CTL (added) Oil Shale (added) Vehicle Fuel Effic.
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Significant Cumulative Potential for Reduction in Import Reliance (9.4 MMbpd additional reduction in imports relative to AEO’06 High Oil Case) 8
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
“Advantageous Interdependence” • “Advantageous Interdependence” reflects a market with sufficient domestic energy alternatives to drive imported energy prices to be more competitive and less volatile; the U.S. becomes a price setter rather than a price taker
• “Energy Independence” sets bar too high; implies foreclosed access to competitive imports
• Traditional “Interdependence” disadvantageous for consuming nations
• Energy security is enhanced by confirming viability of key domestic alternatives, while leaving a moderate level of imports desirable Cumulative Impact of Energy Alternative Development by Large Consuming Nations Helps Develop Demand Leverage in Global Market 9
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
Diverse / Conservative Energy Alternatives Offer Significant Cumulative Import Displacement 6.0
EIA AEO'06 (High Oil) (2030) NETL Estimate (2030)
5.0 Million Barrels per Day
NCC Report (2025) SSEB Report (2030)
4.0
DOE Goal (2030) 3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0 Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
Oil Shale
CTL
EOR
All Biomass Methane Cellulosic Ethanol Biofuels FT gasif. hydrates ThermoBioChemical Chemical
U.S. Oil Sands
Coal Plug-in Hybrids
Wind Hydrogen Nuclear (Coal) Plug-in Plug-in FCVs Hybrids Hybrids
Individual Goals Below Most Other Estimates; Imports Reduced to 15%; Envisions All Potentially Significant U.S. Energy Resources Contributing 10
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
Summary • Extent of potential domestic energy resources
needs to be adequately recognized; but ≈ 99% require advanced technology and added exploration • Technological hurdles are surmountable;
major U.S. energy resources should be reasonably envisioned in energy forecasts • Diverse alternatives permit conservative
individual goals and diversity supports energy security • Developing domestic energy alternatives
can lead to “Advantageous Interdependence” 11
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
Liquid Fuel Security Through Diverse Energy Alternatives 28 28 26 26 24 24 22 22 20 20 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 88 66 44 22 00 2006 2006 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2012 2014 2014 2016 2016 2018 2018 2020 2020 2022 2022 2024 2024 2026 2026 2028 2028 2030 2030
Carl O. Bauer, Director National Energy Technology Laboratory Office of Fossil Energy December 12, 2006
)
Reference: D. Garman June 15, 2006, CSIS presentation, slide 26
2
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
U.S. Resources Much Larger Than World’s Proved Oil Reserves U.S. Hydrocarbon Resources (Total remaining endowment 8,572 billion bbls oil equivalent*) Petroleum Reserves – 22 (EIA) Remaining Original Oil in Place – 307 % recoverable uncertain
Coal Resources – 5,971 (EIA)
7x World’s Proved Oil Reserves Units are in billion bbl-oil-equivalent coal – 10K BTU / lb oil – 6M BTU/bbl 3
Oil Shale Resources – 2,118 (USGS)
(DOE / NETL)
Oil (Tar) Sand – 54 (DOE) Heavy Oil – 100 (NETL)
*Not including energy losses in transformation to liquid fuel Reference: D. Garman June 15, 2006 CSIS presentation, slide 26, excluding fuel already consumed and coal updated per EIA 2004; BP Annual Energy Review C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
U.S. Endowment of Solid, Liquid, and Gaseous Fuels Resources 98.6% of energy potential requires advanced technology and additional exploration
42x
Technically Recoverable Natural Gas Alaskan Coalbed Methane
Alaskan Coal (hypothetical)
l Coa vered isco Und Inferred
Total U.S. technically and economically recoverable + 400 coal + 226 “SSEB coal survey” + 22 petroleum + 32 natural gas
Measured
Sha le
World’s Proved Oil Reserves
680 billion b.o.e. (1.4% of total) Remaining Oil (EOR)
Methane Hydrates
Heavy Oil, Oil (Tar) Sands
50 trillion barrels of oil equivalent 4
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
World Oil Prices in Three Cases (AEO’06 ) $100.00
Dollars per Barrel (2004 $)
100
High Price
$95.71 (2030)
$80.00 80
AEO’07 Reference early release (2004 $)
$57.39
$60.00 60
Reference
$56.97 (2030)
$40.00 40
Low Price
$33.73 (2030)
20 $20.00
0 $0.00 1980 1980
History 1990 1990 1990
Projections 2000 2000 1980 2000
2010 2010
2020 2020 2020
2030 2030 2030
High Price Case Considered in NETL Energy Alternatives Analysis 5
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006 Reference: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2006, J. Conti, March 27, 2006, AEO’06 Presentation EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007, early release, December 5, 2006, converted to 2004 dollars
Liquid Fuels Energy Security Total Supply AEO’06 (High Oil Price)
Millions of Barrels Per Day
28 26 24 22 20 18
13.3 MMbpd 53%
Imports (Crude)
16 14 12
12.4 MMbpd 58% Imports (Product)
10 8 6 4
11.9 MMbpd 47%
Domestic Supply
9.0 MMbpd 42%
2 0 2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Imports Remain >50% of Liquids Supply 6
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
Liquid Fuels Energy Security Total Supply AEO’06 (High Oil Price)
Millions of Barrels Per Day
28 26 24 22 20 18 16
Imports (Crude)
14 12 10 8 6
AEO’06 forecast of: Ethanol (cellulose) CTL Oil Shale
Imports (Product)
Domestic Supply
4 2 0 2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2.2 MMbpd of CTL, Oil Shale, and Cellulosic Ethanol Added (2030) 7
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
Cumulative Domestic Energy Alternatives Supporting U.S. Liquids Supply Total Supply AEO’06 (High Oil Price Case)
Millions of Barrels Per Day
28 26 24 22 20
3.9 MMpbd (15%) AEO’06 forecast
18 16
Imports
14 12 10
H2 FCVs (coal) Wind (plug-ins) Nuclear (plug-ins) Coal (plug-ins)
Forecast Domestic Supply (excluding alternatives)
Oil Sands Methane Hydrates Biomass (Gasification) Cellulosic Ethanol
8 6 4
Added Alternatives
2 0
(added)
EOR CTL (added) Oil Shale (added) Vehicle Fuel Effic.
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Significant Cumulative Potential for Reduction in Import Reliance (9.4 MMbpd additional reduction in imports relative to AEO’06 High Oil Case) 8
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
“Advantageous Interdependence” • “Advantageous Interdependence” reflects a market with sufficient domestic energy alternatives to drive imported energy prices to be more competitive and less volatile; the U.S. becomes a price setter rather than a price taker
• “Energy Independence” sets bar too high; implies foreclosed access to competitive imports
• Traditional “Interdependence” disadvantageous for consuming nations
• Energy security is enhanced by confirming viability of key domestic alternatives, while leaving a moderate level of imports desirable Cumulative Impact of Energy Alternative Development by Large Consuming Nations Helps Develop Demand Leverage in Global Market 9
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
Diverse / Conservative Energy Alternatives Offer Significant Cumulative Import Displacement 6.0
EIA AEO'06 (High Oil) (2030) NETL Estimate (2030)
5.0 Million Barrels per Day
NCC Report (2025) SSEB Report (2030)
4.0
DOE Goal (2030) 3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0 Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
Oil Shale
CTL
EOR
All Biomass Methane Cellulosic Ethanol Biofuels FT gasif. hydrates ThermoBioChemical Chemical
U.S. Oil Sands
Coal Plug-in Hybrids
Wind Hydrogen Nuclear (Coal) Plug-in Plug-in FCVs Hybrids Hybrids
Individual Goals Below Most Other Estimates; Imports Reduced to 15%; Envisions All Potentially Significant U.S. Energy Resources Contributing 10
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
Summary • Extent of potential domestic energy resources
needs to be adequately recognized; but ≈ 99% require advanced technology and added exploration • Technological hurdles are surmountable;
major U.S. energy resources should be reasonably envisioned in energy forecasts • Diverse alternatives permit conservative
individual goals and diversity supports energy security • Developing domestic energy alternatives
can lead to “Advantageous Interdependence” 11
C. Bauer, 12/12/2006
