manhattan
2 Q 2 0 1 7
M A NH AT TA N M A R K E T R E P O R T
INTRODUCTION
M A N H A T T A N S A L E S R E P O R T Q 2 2 0 1 7 :
REALITY V. PERCEPTION
A
lthough we are heading into the lazy days of summer, the Manhattan market is not taking a break; in Q2 we experienced records in overall median sales price ($1.15M) and average price-per-square foot ($1,657). Here's the twist: most of these high prices were actually achieved several years ago in new developments which are only now beginning to close, and are not entirely indicative of current overall market conditions. In reality, the positive trend of sellers pricing their properties in line with market norms continues to increase the pool of qualified buyers. With
mortgage rates still at historic lows, we are seeing much of the sales activity in homes priced $1 million and below; properties in this category spent the least amount of time on the market city-wide with 68% of them entering contract in the first 59 days. Inventory continues to move steadily on the luxury front (properties priced $10 million and up) with an uptick in big ticket sales Downtown. However, these larger, more expensive apartments tend to languish on the market longer as buyers in this price range now have the opportunity to search for product they deem truly special.
Despite Downtown's sale price dominance, the greatest neighborhood value gains continue to be in Upper Manhattan. Plentiful inventory levels and relatively low building costs make this area a hotbed for developers. The neighborhood saw significant price gains (19% YOY) as buyers increasingly shop the area for its affordability. Bidding wars are back! In closing, the market may be cooling but it is by no means stalling. As prices continue to normalize in both resale and new development, we anticipate very healthy activity in the 2nd half of 2017. Happy Reading,
ELIZABETH ANN STRIBLING-KIVLAN
ELIZABETH F. STRIBLING
President
Chairman 3
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 06 TOTAL INVENTORY 08 MONTHS OF SUPPLY 14 CONTRACTS SIGNED 16 TIME ON THE MARKET 22 RECORDED SALES 24 PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT 30 SOU RCES Stribling & Associates proprietary database, ACRIS (Automated City Register Information System)
RESEARCH ED & WRIT TEN BY: GARRETT DERDERIAN Director of Data & Reporting
METHODOLOGY U PPE R M A N H AT TA N
GEOGR APHY covered in this
TIME ON MARKET is calculated by
report is Manhattan.
how many properties entered contract during the quarter in the given period.
on all properties actively listed during
MEDIAN PRICE is the middle
the quarter at the time the report
price of a given dataset.
is prepared.
U PPE R W E ST SI D E
CONTR ACT SIGNED figures for the
prices divided by the total number of
current quarter are based on publicly
properties.
C E N T R A L
AVER AGE PRICE is the sum of all
reported transactions at the time the report is prepared. The signed price
CURRENT QUARTER is reflective
reflects the latest available asking price.
of the initial day of the quarter until the 20th day of the closing month of the
RECORDED SALES figures for the
quarter. These numbers will be updated
current quarter are based on known
in subsequent reports to reflect the
closings recorded at the time the report
dataset of the entire quarter.
P A R K
INVENTORY is calculated based
M I D T OW N W E ST
is prepared.
U PPE R E A ST SI D E
M I D T OW N E A ST
D OW N T OW N
QUARTERS MONTHS OF SUPPLY is an estimated
1Q: January 1 – March 31
time it would take to sell all current
2Q: April 1 – June 30
active listings based on the trailing
3Q: July 1- September 30
F I N A N C I A L DI ST R IC T /
12-months sales rate.
4Q: October 1 – December 31
B AT T E RY PA R K C I T Y
5
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
6
“ AS THE MARKET MOVES TOWARD EQUILIBRIUM, LUXURY CLOSINGS CONTINUE TO SET RECORD PRICES.
AVER AGE SALES PRICE
$2,223,621 (record)
”
30%
SHARE OF TOTAL INVENTORY WAS OVER $ 3M
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,150,000
MEDIAN DAYS
(record)
AVER AGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
$1,657 (record)
87
65%
ON THE MARKET
50%
OF UPPER WEST SIDE
OF $10 M + PROPERTIES
PROPERTIES ENTERED CONTR ACT
TOOK MORE THAN 90 DAYS
IN THE FIRST 59 DAYS
TO ENTER CONTR ACT
7
TOTAL INVENTORY BY U N IT T Y P E There were 6,365 units listed on the market in 2Q17, a 2% dip from last quarter, but a 15% increase year-over-year. The largest share of inventory went to 2BR units, with an average PPSF of $1,853 and size of 1,440 square feet. 1BR units captured 30% of inventory, with an average PPSF of $1,601 and size of 846 square feet. As in 1Q17, all other bedroom categories logged less than 20% share, with studios taking 10%, up 1% from last quarter and flat year-over-year. 4+BR units, at 12% of inventory, were most expensive and largest. These units averaged a PPSF of $2,629 and size of 4,398 square feet, making them 15% more expensive and 90% larger than 3BR units. Condo prices were down across all bedroom categories, apart from studios, where the median was up 2% and the average was up 12%. 4+BR units saw the steepest declines, with the median down 6% and the average down 7%. Notably, 4+BRs also had a 7% PPSF drop to $2,931, but a 3% increase in size, reflecting the continued effect of an oversupply in this area of the market. Both studio and 1BR co-op units had slight price gains in 2Q17, with median prices up 7% and 1%, and averages up 6% and 2%, respectively. 4+BR units had the largest price drops of any unit type, with the median down 11% and the average down 18%.
TOTALINVENTORY INVENTORY byUNIT UNIT TYPE TOTAL TOTAL INVENTORYby by UNITTYPE TYPE 22QQ 22001177 PPEERRCCEENNTTAAGGEE OOFF UUNNI ITTSS 2Q 2017 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS 10% 10% STUDIO STUDIO 10% STUDIO 1-BR 1-BR 1-BR 2-BR 2-BR 2-BR 3-BR 3-BR 3-BR 12% 12% 4+BR BR 4+ 12% 4+ BR 0% 0% 0%
15% 15% 15%
22QQ 22001177 AAVVEERRAAGGEE PPPPSSFF 2Q 2017 AVERAGE PPSF STUDIO STUDIO STUDIO 1-BR 1-BR 1-BR 2-BR 2-BR 2-BR 3-BR 3-BR 3-BR 4+ BR 4+ BR 4+ BR $0 $0 $0
$500 $500 $500
1,000 1,000 1,000
17% 17% 17% 20% 20% 20%
25% 25% 25%
30% 30% 30%
35% 35% 35%
$1,407 $1,407 $1,407 $1,601 $1,601 $1,601 $1,853 $1,853 $1,853 $2,281 $2,281 $2,281
$1,000 $1,000 $1,000
22QQ 22001177 AAVVEERRAAGGEE SSI IZZEE 2Q 2017 AVERAGE SIZE SF 572SF 572 STUDIO STUDIO 572 SF STUDIO SF 846SF 846 1-BR 1-BR 846 SF 1-BR 2-BR SF 1,440SF 2-BR 1,440 2-BR 1,440 SF 3-BR 3-BR 3-BR 4+ BR 4+ BR 4+ BR 00 0
8
10% 10% 10%
5% 5% 5%
30% 30% 30% 31% 31% 31%
2,000 2,000 2,000
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500
$2,000 $2,000 $2,000
$2,629 $2,629 $2,629 $2,500 $3,000 $2,500 $3,000 $2,500 $3,000
SF 2,309SF 2,309 2,309 SF
3,000 3,000 3,000
4,000 4,000 4,000
SF 4,398SF 4,398 4,398 SF 5,000 5,000 5,000
2Q 2017 CONDO INVENTORY 4+BR 12% 4+BR 12%
STUDIO 10% STUDIO 10%
% UNITS MEDIAN PRICE YOY
3-BR 17% 3-BR 17%
2Q 2017 TOTAL 2Q 2017 INVENTORY TOTAL INVENTORY
1-BR 30% 1-BR 30%
AV E R AG E P R I C E YOY AV E R AG E P P S F YOY AV E R AG E S F
2-BR 31% 2-BR 31%
0
4+BR 10% 4+BR 10%
0
3-BR 15% 3-BR 15%
0
YOY
% UNITS MEDIAN PRICE
2Q 2017 NEWLY 2Q 2017 LISTED NEWLY INVENTORY LISTED INVENTORY
1-BR 33% 1-BR 33%
YOY AV E R AG E P R I C E YOY AV E R AG E P P S F YOY AV E R AG E S F
1%
1%
1%
3% 1%
2% 1% 6% 2%
2% 1% 6% 2%
6%
6% 8%
100%YOY 100% 2%
2% 2% %
3%
3%
4% 2%
1% 3%
1% 2%
2%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
HISTORICAL INVENTORY 1% 2%
1% 1% 2%
1% 3%
1%
HISTORICAL INVENTORY 100%
1-BR
2-BR
3-BR
4+BR
8%
30%
33%
19%
11%
$799,000
$1,295,000
$2,500,000
$4,500,000
$8,750,000
2%
-4%
-7%
-6%
-6%
$916,571
$1,474,823
$2,943,993
$5,815,507
$11,896,433
12%
-4%
-6%
-3%
-7%
$1,602
$1,764
$2,023
$2,427
$2,931
5%
-2%
-4%
-1%
-7%
605
855
1,448
2,338
3,832
10%
0.4%
0.4%
3%
3%
2Q 2017 CO - OP INVENTORY
STUDIO 12% STUDIO 12%
2-BR 31% 2-BR 31%
0
STUDIO
6% 3% 6% 9%
9%
8%
STUDIO
1-BR
2-BR
3-BR
4+BR
14%
33%
31%
15%
8%
$480,000
$757,000
$1,550,000
$2,995,000
$5,750,000
7%
1%
-1%
7%
-11%
$514,747
$872,168
$1,921,820
$3,672,439
$8,072,886
6%
2%
-7%
-6%
-18%
$1,063
$1,116
$1,300
$1,541
$1,972
9%
4%
3%
-1%
-1%
2,088
3,505
-2%
-4%
511
1%
1%
2% 1% 5% 2%
3% 1%
5% 9%
5% 8%
2%
9%
5% 3%
8%
818
1,422
2%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2% 4%
3% 5%
3% 6%
2% 5%
2% 4%
5% 9%
6%
5%
4% 11%
-0.3%
4% 8% 8%
9%
10%
12% 12%
11%
9
TOTAL INVENTORY BY P R I C E P O I NT Across price brackets, 40% of units were priced between $1-3M, the most of any category. $500K-1M captured 24% share, while $3-5M took 13%. Notably, there were a reported 112 listings (2%) priced above $20M, representing a 57% increase over the 10-year 2Q average of 71 listings, and a 24% increase from 90 listings this time last year. However, the share of units priced $3M+ declined to 30% from its peak of 34% in 2Q15. Studio units were the most affordable with an average PPSF of $830, but also the smallest measuring 581 square feet. Units priced above $20M commanded a significant premium, with an average PPSF of $5,426 and size of 6,761 square feet. All condo price brackets noted average price increases in 2Q17. The strongest gains were in the $20M+ market, where the median jumped 8% year-over-year to $29,625,000, and the average was up 7% to $33,670,357. All other categories saw average increases of 2% or less. Markedly, 38% of condo inventory was priced above $3M, while 47% was between $1-3M. Only 15% was asking between $500K-1M, while 1% was under $500K. Conversely, co-op prices skewed considerably lower than condos, with 83% of listings asking less than $3M. Units priced between $1-3M recorded the largest gains, up 3% for both median and average prices. However, all co-ops priced above $5M noted median and average price declines, with those priced above $20M logging a median drop of 2%, and an average drop of 14%. 10
2-BR 2-BR 2-BR 3-BR 3-BR 3-BR 4+ 4+ BR BR 4+ BR 0
1,440 SF 1,440 SF 1,440 SF
1,000 1,000 1,000
0 0
2,309 SF 2,309 SF 2,309 SF
2,000 2,000 2,000
3,000 3,000 3,000
4,000 4,000 4,000
4,398 SF 4,398 SF 4,398 SF 5,000 5,000 5,000
TOTAL INVENTORY by PRICE POINT TOTAL INVENTORY by PRICE POINT 2 2Q Q 2 20 0 11 7 7 P PE ER RC CE EN NT TA AG GE E O OF F U UN N II T TS S 2 Q
M A NH AT TA N M A R K E T R E P O R T
INTRODUCTION
M A N H A T T A N S A L E S R E P O R T Q 2 2 0 1 7 :
REALITY V. PERCEPTION
A
lthough we are heading into the lazy days of summer, the Manhattan market is not taking a break; in Q2 we experienced records in overall median sales price ($1.15M) and average price-per-square foot ($1,657). Here's the twist: most of these high prices were actually achieved several years ago in new developments which are only now beginning to close, and are not entirely indicative of current overall market conditions. In reality, the positive trend of sellers pricing their properties in line with market norms continues to increase the pool of qualified buyers. With
mortgage rates still at historic lows, we are seeing much of the sales activity in homes priced $1 million and below; properties in this category spent the least amount of time on the market city-wide with 68% of them entering contract in the first 59 days. Inventory continues to move steadily on the luxury front (properties priced $10 million and up) with an uptick in big ticket sales Downtown. However, these larger, more expensive apartments tend to languish on the market longer as buyers in this price range now have the opportunity to search for product they deem truly special.
Despite Downtown's sale price dominance, the greatest neighborhood value gains continue to be in Upper Manhattan. Plentiful inventory levels and relatively low building costs make this area a hotbed for developers. The neighborhood saw significant price gains (19% YOY) as buyers increasingly shop the area for its affordability. Bidding wars are back! In closing, the market may be cooling but it is by no means stalling. As prices continue to normalize in both resale and new development, we anticipate very healthy activity in the 2nd half of 2017. Happy Reading,
ELIZABETH ANN STRIBLING-KIVLAN
ELIZABETH F. STRIBLING
President
Chairman 3
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 06 TOTAL INVENTORY 08 MONTHS OF SUPPLY 14 CONTRACTS SIGNED 16 TIME ON THE MARKET 22 RECORDED SALES 24 PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT 30 SOU RCES Stribling & Associates proprietary database, ACRIS (Automated City Register Information System)
RESEARCH ED & WRIT TEN BY: GARRETT DERDERIAN Director of Data & Reporting
METHODOLOGY U PPE R M A N H AT TA N
GEOGR APHY covered in this
TIME ON MARKET is calculated by
report is Manhattan.
how many properties entered contract during the quarter in the given period.
on all properties actively listed during
MEDIAN PRICE is the middle
the quarter at the time the report
price of a given dataset.
is prepared.
U PPE R W E ST SI D E
CONTR ACT SIGNED figures for the
prices divided by the total number of
current quarter are based on publicly
properties.
C E N T R A L
AVER AGE PRICE is the sum of all
reported transactions at the time the report is prepared. The signed price
CURRENT QUARTER is reflective
reflects the latest available asking price.
of the initial day of the quarter until the 20th day of the closing month of the
RECORDED SALES figures for the
quarter. These numbers will be updated
current quarter are based on known
in subsequent reports to reflect the
closings recorded at the time the report
dataset of the entire quarter.
P A R K
INVENTORY is calculated based
M I D T OW N W E ST
is prepared.
U PPE R E A ST SI D E
M I D T OW N E A ST
D OW N T OW N
QUARTERS MONTHS OF SUPPLY is an estimated
1Q: January 1 – March 31
time it would take to sell all current
2Q: April 1 – June 30
active listings based on the trailing
3Q: July 1- September 30
F I N A N C I A L DI ST R IC T /
12-months sales rate.
4Q: October 1 – December 31
B AT T E RY PA R K C I T Y
5
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
6
“ AS THE MARKET MOVES TOWARD EQUILIBRIUM, LUXURY CLOSINGS CONTINUE TO SET RECORD PRICES.
AVER AGE SALES PRICE
$2,223,621 (record)
”
30%
SHARE OF TOTAL INVENTORY WAS OVER $ 3M
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,150,000
MEDIAN DAYS
(record)
AVER AGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
$1,657 (record)
87
65%
ON THE MARKET
50%
OF UPPER WEST SIDE
OF $10 M + PROPERTIES
PROPERTIES ENTERED CONTR ACT
TOOK MORE THAN 90 DAYS
IN THE FIRST 59 DAYS
TO ENTER CONTR ACT
7
TOTAL INVENTORY BY U N IT T Y P E There were 6,365 units listed on the market in 2Q17, a 2% dip from last quarter, but a 15% increase year-over-year. The largest share of inventory went to 2BR units, with an average PPSF of $1,853 and size of 1,440 square feet. 1BR units captured 30% of inventory, with an average PPSF of $1,601 and size of 846 square feet. As in 1Q17, all other bedroom categories logged less than 20% share, with studios taking 10%, up 1% from last quarter and flat year-over-year. 4+BR units, at 12% of inventory, were most expensive and largest. These units averaged a PPSF of $2,629 and size of 4,398 square feet, making them 15% more expensive and 90% larger than 3BR units. Condo prices were down across all bedroom categories, apart from studios, where the median was up 2% and the average was up 12%. 4+BR units saw the steepest declines, with the median down 6% and the average down 7%. Notably, 4+BRs also had a 7% PPSF drop to $2,931, but a 3% increase in size, reflecting the continued effect of an oversupply in this area of the market. Both studio and 1BR co-op units had slight price gains in 2Q17, with median prices up 7% and 1%, and averages up 6% and 2%, respectively. 4+BR units had the largest price drops of any unit type, with the median down 11% and the average down 18%.
TOTALINVENTORY INVENTORY byUNIT UNIT TYPE TOTAL TOTAL INVENTORYby by UNITTYPE TYPE 22QQ 22001177 PPEERRCCEENNTTAAGGEE OOFF UUNNI ITTSS 2Q 2017 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS 10% 10% STUDIO STUDIO 10% STUDIO 1-BR 1-BR 1-BR 2-BR 2-BR 2-BR 3-BR 3-BR 3-BR 12% 12% 4+BR BR 4+ 12% 4+ BR 0% 0% 0%
15% 15% 15%
22QQ 22001177 AAVVEERRAAGGEE PPPPSSFF 2Q 2017 AVERAGE PPSF STUDIO STUDIO STUDIO 1-BR 1-BR 1-BR 2-BR 2-BR 2-BR 3-BR 3-BR 3-BR 4+ BR 4+ BR 4+ BR $0 $0 $0
$500 $500 $500
1,000 1,000 1,000
17% 17% 17% 20% 20% 20%
25% 25% 25%
30% 30% 30%
35% 35% 35%
$1,407 $1,407 $1,407 $1,601 $1,601 $1,601 $1,853 $1,853 $1,853 $2,281 $2,281 $2,281
$1,000 $1,000 $1,000
22QQ 22001177 AAVVEERRAAGGEE SSI IZZEE 2Q 2017 AVERAGE SIZE SF 572SF 572 STUDIO STUDIO 572 SF STUDIO SF 846SF 846 1-BR 1-BR 846 SF 1-BR 2-BR SF 1,440SF 2-BR 1,440 2-BR 1,440 SF 3-BR 3-BR 3-BR 4+ BR 4+ BR 4+ BR 00 0
8
10% 10% 10%
5% 5% 5%
30% 30% 30% 31% 31% 31%
2,000 2,000 2,000
$1,500 $1,500 $1,500
$2,000 $2,000 $2,000
$2,629 $2,629 $2,629 $2,500 $3,000 $2,500 $3,000 $2,500 $3,000
SF 2,309SF 2,309 2,309 SF
3,000 3,000 3,000
4,000 4,000 4,000
SF 4,398SF 4,398 4,398 SF 5,000 5,000 5,000
2Q 2017 CONDO INVENTORY 4+BR 12% 4+BR 12%
STUDIO 10% STUDIO 10%
% UNITS MEDIAN PRICE YOY
3-BR 17% 3-BR 17%
2Q 2017 TOTAL 2Q 2017 INVENTORY TOTAL INVENTORY
1-BR 30% 1-BR 30%
AV E R AG E P R I C E YOY AV E R AG E P P S F YOY AV E R AG E S F
2-BR 31% 2-BR 31%
0
4+BR 10% 4+BR 10%
0
3-BR 15% 3-BR 15%
0
YOY
% UNITS MEDIAN PRICE
2Q 2017 NEWLY 2Q 2017 LISTED NEWLY INVENTORY LISTED INVENTORY
1-BR 33% 1-BR 33%
YOY AV E R AG E P R I C E YOY AV E R AG E P P S F YOY AV E R AG E S F
1%
1%
1%
3% 1%
2% 1% 6% 2%
2% 1% 6% 2%
6%
6% 8%
100%YOY 100% 2%
2% 2% %
3%
3%
4% 2%
1% 3%
1% 2%
2%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
HISTORICAL INVENTORY 1% 2%
1% 1% 2%
1% 3%
1%
HISTORICAL INVENTORY 100%
1-BR
2-BR
3-BR
4+BR
8%
30%
33%
19%
11%
$799,000
$1,295,000
$2,500,000
$4,500,000
$8,750,000
2%
-4%
-7%
-6%
-6%
$916,571
$1,474,823
$2,943,993
$5,815,507
$11,896,433
12%
-4%
-6%
-3%
-7%
$1,602
$1,764
$2,023
$2,427
$2,931
5%
-2%
-4%
-1%
-7%
605
855
1,448
2,338
3,832
10%
0.4%
0.4%
3%
3%
2Q 2017 CO - OP INVENTORY
STUDIO 12% STUDIO 12%
2-BR 31% 2-BR 31%
0
STUDIO
6% 3% 6% 9%
9%
8%
STUDIO
1-BR
2-BR
3-BR
4+BR
14%
33%
31%
15%
8%
$480,000
$757,000
$1,550,000
$2,995,000
$5,750,000
7%
1%
-1%
7%
-11%
$514,747
$872,168
$1,921,820
$3,672,439
$8,072,886
6%
2%
-7%
-6%
-18%
$1,063
$1,116
$1,300
$1,541
$1,972
9%
4%
3%
-1%
-1%
2,088
3,505
-2%
-4%
511
1%
1%
2% 1% 5% 2%
3% 1%
5% 9%
5% 8%
2%
9%
5% 3%
8%
818
1,422
2%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2% 4%
3% 5%
3% 6%
2% 5%
2% 4%
5% 9%
6%
5%
4% 11%
-0.3%
4% 8% 8%
9%
10%
12% 12%
11%
9
TOTAL INVENTORY BY P R I C E P O I NT Across price brackets, 40% of units were priced between $1-3M, the most of any category. $500K-1M captured 24% share, while $3-5M took 13%. Notably, there were a reported 112 listings (2%) priced above $20M, representing a 57% increase over the 10-year 2Q average of 71 listings, and a 24% increase from 90 listings this time last year. However, the share of units priced $3M+ declined to 30% from its peak of 34% in 2Q15. Studio units were the most affordable with an average PPSF of $830, but also the smallest measuring 581 square feet. Units priced above $20M commanded a significant premium, with an average PPSF of $5,426 and size of 6,761 square feet. All condo price brackets noted average price increases in 2Q17. The strongest gains were in the $20M+ market, where the median jumped 8% year-over-year to $29,625,000, and the average was up 7% to $33,670,357. All other categories saw average increases of 2% or less. Markedly, 38% of condo inventory was priced above $3M, while 47% was between $1-3M. Only 15% was asking between $500K-1M, while 1% was under $500K. Conversely, co-op prices skewed considerably lower than condos, with 83% of listings asking less than $3M. Units priced between $1-3M recorded the largest gains, up 3% for both median and average prices. However, all co-ops priced above $5M noted median and average price declines, with those priced above $20M logging a median drop of 2%, and an average drop of 14%. 10
2-BR 2-BR 2-BR 3-BR 3-BR 3-BR 4+ 4+ BR BR 4+ BR 0
1,440 SF 1,440 SF 1,440 SF
1,000 1,000 1,000
0 0
2,309 SF 2,309 SF 2,309 SF
2,000 2,000 2,000
3,000 3,000 3,000
4,000 4,000 4,000
4,398 SF 4,398 SF 4,398 SF 5,000 5,000 5,000
TOTAL INVENTORY by PRICE POINT TOTAL INVENTORY by PRICE POINT 2 2Q Q 2 20 0 11 7 7 P PE ER RC CE EN NT TA AG GE E O OF F U UN N II T TS S 2 Q
