Market Information
Market Information 1. Dry Bulk Carriers ①Dry Bulker Markets ②Drybulkers Port Congestion ③Chinese Port Stock Pile of Imported Iron Ore
1 2 2
2. Tankers ①VLCC Market ②Product Tanker Market
3 3
①Export Volumes of Automobile from Japan
4
3. Car Carriers
4. Container Cargo Trades ①China Containerized Freight Index ②World Total Containership Capacity ③Cargo Movements: North America Outbound ④Cargo Movements: North America Inbound ⑤Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Outbound ⑥Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Inbound ⑦North America Outbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑧North America Inbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑨Europe Outbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑩Europe Inbound Supply-Demand Transition
4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8
5. Exchange Rate / Bunker Price ①Exchange Rate ②Bunker Price
9 9
July 2011
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd.
1. Dry Bulk Carriers ① Dry Bulker Markets [4TC Charterage (monthly averages)] 4TC：Pacific Round、Pacific Atlantic、Atlantic Round、Atlantic Pacific
(Charte rage US$/day) 220,000
Cape siz e (165,000DWT)
200,000
12,000
10,844
Panamax (72,000DWT)
180,000
(BDI)
201,136
10,000
Handymax (55,000DWT)
160,000
Small Handy (28,000DWT)
140,000
BDI (Baltic Dry Inde x)
8,000
120,000
6,000
100,000 80,000
4,000
60,000 40,000
1,433 2,000
743
20,000 0 Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
10,780 0
3,995 Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-10
Charterage per day (US$/day) Upper row: Average of Calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-M ar.)
2001
Capesize Panamax Handymax Small Handy BDI
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Jan-11
S ource : Tramp Data S ervice
2007
2008
2009
2010
13,090
12,056
40,615
69,236
50,277
45,320
116,565
105,391
42,464
33,345
10,912
15,580
55,039
66,277
41,423
55,638
126,944
81,867
45,203
26,894
9,444
8,281
20,408
35,815
24,782
23,858
56,854
48,653
19,279
25,070
8,234
9,787
27,747
34,309
19,815
28,725
62,404
36,473
24,178
21,336
8,911
8,210
16,887
30,915
24,053
22,661
47,518
41,233
17,353
22,484
8,050
9,288
23,089
29,834
20,191
26,435
52,231
31,337
20,927
19,783
6,476
6,038
10,404
21,449
17,982
16,739
33,335
29,182
11,542
16,519
6,161
6,442
14,465
21,426
15,166
19,271
36,408
22,350
14,096
14,785
1,215
1,144
2,634
4,521
3,380
3,188
7,090
6,346
2,613
2,761
1,083
1,332
3,517
4,346
2,846
3,745
7,767
4,894
2,978
2,346
[4TC Charterage (daily)] 80,000
(B DI)
(C h arte rage US $/day) C ape s i z e Pan am ax H an dym ax S m al l H an dy B DI
60,000
5,000
4,000
3,000 40,000 2,000
20,000 1,000
0 Jan -10
0 Apr-10
Ju l -10
O ct-10
Jan -11
Apr-11
Charterage per day (US$/day) , Calendar Year, M onthly A verage
Capesize Panamax Handymax Small Handy BDI
M ar
S ource ： Bloomberg
Jan
Feb
A pr
2010
38,395
30,862
33,236
29,192
2011
10,217
5,874
8,991
2010
30,709
25,390
2011
13,816
13,392
2010
25,289
2011
14,231
2010 2011
M ay
Jun
Jul
48,550
38,113
15,858
7,665
7,372
10,780
32,351
31,268
34,766
26,844
16,440
12,811
13,903
14,647
22,313
27,676
26,977
31,526
24,985
12,591
16,047
15,013
14,703
14,123
17,294
15,829
19,778
19,835
21,405
18,910
11,137
9,777
11,140
11,834
11,695
10,971
2010
3,168
2,678
3,207
3,043
3,865
3,088
2011
1,401
1,181
1,493
1,343
1,352
1,433
A ug
Sep
Oct
Nov
27,749
35,430
42,516
35,633
Dec 25,162
33,391
18,047
22,956
24,069
18,779
18,282
17,550
25,084
18,719
19,944
20,620
19,217
15,931
16,764
22,497
14,697
15,092
15,743
14,430
11,985
12,117
16,426
1,910
2,432
2,719
2,693
2,321
2,031
2,763
BDI is calculated as an arithmetic average of the drybulker markets of the 4 different vessel types. Therefore, a fluctuation of BDI does not always coincide with those of the 4 drybulker markets.
1
A verage
② Drybulkers Port Congestion (Source: Howe Robinson)
(Number of Vessels)
200
Australian Loading Ports for Coal Brazilian Loading Ports for Iron O re
180
Australian Loading Ports for Iron O re Chinese Discharging Ports for Iron O re
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
③ Chinese Port Stock Pile of Imported Iron Ore (Source: Bloomberg)
100
(million ton)
95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55
2
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
50
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Jan-08
Mar-08
0
2. Tankers ① VLCC Market (Source: Drewry, RIM etc.) VLCC spot rate (AG/East)
Crude oil price(Dubai) 140
350 317
120
300
250
100
234
80
150
60
100
40
WS
US$/b
200
51 50
20
27
.
29 0
Average
Jan-2011
Jan-2010
Jan-2009
Jan-2008
Jan-2007
Jan-2006
Jan-2005
Jan-2004
Jan-2003
Jan-2002
Jan-2001
0
（ WS: World Scale) Upper row: Average of calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-Mar.)
2001 AG-Asia VLCC Freight
2002
66 51
2003
50 69
2004
93 94
2005
149 146
2006
101 100
2007
90 82
2008
79 90
2009
120 114
2010
40 49
69 63
AG:Arabian Gulf
Jan
2010 2011
Feb
97 50
M ar
76 61
Apr
76 63
M ay
88 50
Jun
72 51
Jul
90
Aug
57
Sept
50
Oct
47
Nov
47
Dec
66
59
② Product Tanker Market (Source: Drewry) WS 700 LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt 585
MR Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
600 463
500
407 400
414
346
406
403
437
395
371
300 213
283
260
200
208 196
158 100
157
145
117
00. 1 3 5 7 9 11 01. 1 3 5 7 9 11 02. 1 3 5 7 9 11 03. 1 3 5 7 9 11 04. 1 3 5 7 9 11 05. 1 3 5 7 9 11 06. 1 3 5 7 9 11 07. 1 3 5 7 9 11 08. 1 3 5 7 9 11 09. 1 3 5 7 9 11 10. 1 3 5 7 9 11 11. 1 3 5
0
Average
（ WS: World Scale) Upper row: Average of calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-Mar.)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt
237 292
249 183
152 182
218 214
251 259
276 269
214 198
181 185
250 226
93 104
133 128
MR Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
285 333
287 224
196 223
265 267
307 318
366 368
312 293
274 269
287 251
117 128
173 172
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt
2010 2011
151 119
139 111
124 122
126 142
M R Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
2010 2011
145 139
155 135
144 159
143 185
3
May
-
Jun
Jul
Aug
143 145
123
128
161
215
240
161
155
Sept 141 -
Oct
Nov
Dec
110
120
128
183
165
193
3. Car Carriers ① Export Volumes of Automobile from Japan (Source:Japan Automobile Manufactures Association) (Broken Line: yoy-change)
(Bar/Unit:1000 )
500
100% 80%
400
60% 40%
300
20% 0%
200
-20% -40%
100
-60% -80%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2009
2010
2011
* New vehicle (incl. KD)
3. Container Cargo Trades ① China Containerized Freight Index (Source:SSE) CCFI W/C America Service
CCFI E/C America Service
CCFI Europe Service
2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 1998.1.1＝1,000
700
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Jan-08
Apr-08
500
* CCFI reflects the freight rate trend for container exports from China only, which does not always match the overall trend for container exports from Asia. Therefore, this information is provided and updated only for reference purposes.
② World Total Containership Capacity （1,000TEU） 16,000 14,000
18%
under 3,999TEU 8,000～9,999TEU
4,000～5,999TEU over 10,000TEU
6,000～7,999TEU Growth
16%
12,000
14%
10,000
12%
8,000
10%
6,000
8%
4,000
6%
2,000
4%
0 '90
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
4
'02
'03
'04
2% '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Source：World Register of Ship - HIS Fairplay
Calendar Year
③ Cargo Movements: North America Outbound (Asia→North America) 1,400
(Broken Line: yoy-change)
(Bar:1000TEU)
60% 50% 40%
1,200 1,000
30% 20% 10% 0% -10%
800 600 400
-20% -30% -40%
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2009
2010
2009 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010
Cumulative
950 722 835 876 911 898 994 1,036 1,045 1,085 982 935 11,268
2011
950 1,671 2,506 3,382 4,293 5,191 6,185 7,221 8,267 9,351 10,333 11,268
M onthly
995 907 918 992 1,101 1,145 1,174 1,255 1,173 1,196 1,111 995 12,963
Increase/ decrease
2011
Cumulative
4.8% 25.7% 10.0% 13.3% 20.8% 27.5% 18.1% 21.1% 12.2% 10.3% 13.1% 6.4%
995 1,903 2,821 3,813 4,914 6,059 7,232 8,488 9,660 10,857 11,967 12,963
Increase/ decrease
4.8% 13.8% 12.6% 12.7% 14.5% 16.7% 16.9% 17.5% 16.9% 16.1% 15.8% 15.0%
M onthly
Increase/ decrease
1,113 979 849 1,065
Cumulative
11.8% 7.9% -7.5% 7.3%
1,113 2,092 2,941 4,006
Increase/ decrease
11.8% 9.9% 4.3% 5.1%
4,006 Source：Piers JoC
④ Cargo Movements: North America Inbound (North America→Asia) 700
(Bar:1000TEU)
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
600 500 400 300 200 100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2009
2010
2009 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
377 411 514 507 534 517 512 527 503 520 516 536 5,973
2011
2010
Cumulative
377 788 1,302 1,809 2,343 2,860 3,372 3,899 4,402 4,922 5,437 5,973
M onthly
472 487 528 535 522 498 499 503 482 552 552 556 6,186
Increase/ decrease
25.3% 18.4% 2.7% 5.5% -2.2% -3.8% -2.5% -4.6% -4.2% 6.2% 7.0% 3.8%
2011
Cumulative
472 959 1,487 2,022 2,544 3,042 3,540 4,044 4,525 5,077 5,629 6,186
Increase/ decrease
25.3% 21.7% 14.2% 11.7% 8.6% 6.3% 5.0% 3.7% 2.8% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6%
M onthly
507 519 604 591
Increase/ decrease
7.3% 6.6% 14.4% 10.5%
Cumulative
507 1,026 1,532 2,221
Increase/ decrease
7.3% 7.0% 3.0% 9.8%
2,221 Source：Piers JoC
5
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
⑤ Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Outbound (Asia→Europe) 1,400
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
(Bar:1000TEU)
60% 50% 40%
1,200 1,000
30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
800 600 400 200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2009
2010
2009 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010
Cumulative
1,018 618 955 878 933 955 993 1,068 1,052 953 971 1,099 11,493
2011
1,018 1,636 2,591 3,469 4,402 5,357 6,350 7,418 8,470 9,423 10,394 11,493
M onthly
1,115 941 1,075 1,119 1,156 1,153 1,213 1,239 1,120 1,088 1,106 1,193 13,517
Increase/ decrease
2011
Cumulative
9.4% 52.3% 12.6% 27.5% 24.0% 20.6% 22.1% 16.0% 6.5% 14.1% 13.9% 8.6%
1,115 2,056 3,131 4,250 5,406 6,559 7,771 9,010 10,130 11,217 12,323 13,517
Increase/ decrease
9.4% 25.6% 20.8% 22.5% 22.8% 22.4% 22.4% 21.5% 19.6% 19.0% 18.6% 17.6%
Increase/ decrease
M onthly
1,314 855 1,167 1,163
17.9% -9.2% 8.5% 3.9%
1,314 2,169 3,335 4,498
17.6% 5.5% 6.5% 5.8%
4,498 Source：CTS
⑥ Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Inbound (Europe→Asia)
600
Increase/ decrease
Cumulative
(Bar:1000TEU)
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
60% 50% 40% 30% 20%
500 400 300
10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
200 100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2009
2010
2009 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
310 359 451 439 498 484 493 465 488 476 464 543 5,471
2011
2010
Cumulative
310 669 1,120 1,559 2,057 2,541 3,035 3,500 3,987 4,463 4,927 5,471
M onthly
418 450 511 476 482 469 465 447 446 461 470 473 5,569
Increase/ decrease
2011
Cumulative
34.7% 25.4% 13.2% 8.6% -3.2% -3.1% -5.8% -3.9% -8.6% -3.2% 1.3% -12.9%
418 868 1,379 1,856 2,338 2,807 3,272 3,719 4,164 4,625 5,096 5,569
Increase/ decrease
34.7% 29.7% 23.1% 19.0% 13.6% 10.4% 7.8% 6.3% 4.4% 3.6% 3.4% 1.8%
M onthly
451 451 542 491
Increase/ decrease
7.9% 0.2% 6.1% 3.1%
Cumulative
451 902 1,444 1,935
Increase/ decrease
8.0% 3.9% 4.3% 4.3%
1,935 Source：CTS
6
⑦ North America Outbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Asia → North America ] (1000TEU)
18,000
-10%
Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
16,000 0% 14,000 10.4% 12,000
13.7%
12.4%
12.9%
11.6%
12.1%
13.9%
10,000
6,000 4,000
10%
18.0% 16,347
8,000 11,378
10,016 9,817 8,974
12,841 11,248
14,68514,080 12,792
16,655 14,644
16,537 25.0% 13,562
20% 15,631 13,819 30%
15,620 11,722
40% 2,000 0
50% 2002
2003
2004
2005
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
Gap Ratio
2006
2007
2008
2009
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
8,974 9,817 11,248 12,792 14,080 14,644 13,562 11,722 13,819
21.3% 9.4% 14.6% 13.7% 10.1% 4.0% -7.4% -13.6% 17.9%
10,016 11,378 12,841 14,685 16,347 16,655 16,537 15,620 15,631
6.5% 13.6% 12.9% 14.4% 11.3% 1.9% -0.7% -5.5% 0.1%
cf. Containership Demand Forecast byConsultants & Research Companies Drewry IHS Global Insight 2011e 7.7% 6.2% 2012e 10.6% 6.7% Source： Drewry as of June 2011
IHS Global Insight as of May 2011
2010
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2011
⑧ North America Inbound Supply-Demand Transition [ North America → Asia ] 16,000
(1000TEU)
40% Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
14,000
46.5%
12,000
55.7%
56.2% 59.1% 12,239
6,000 10,622
2,000
8,108 3,951
50%
51.9%
52.5%
8,000
4,000
45%
49.4% 51.3%
10,000
13,758 60.9%
13,747
55% 12,925
13,547
60%
12,761
9,220
4,378
4,654
5,000
5,381
6,093
6,522
6,459
6,910 65%
70%
0 2002
2003
2004
2005
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
Gap Ratio
2006
2007
2008
2009
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2010
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2011
7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3,951 4,378 4,654 5,000 5,381 6,093 6,522 6,459 6,910
8.1% 10.8% 6.3% 7.4% 7.6% 13.2% 7.0% -1.0% 7.0%
8,108 9,220 10,622 12,239 13,758 13,747 13,547 12,761 12,925
7.5% 13.7% 15.2% 15.2% 12.4% -0.1% -1.5% -5.8% 1.3%
⑨ Europe Outbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Asia → Europe ]
（1000TEU)
18,000
Demand
16,000
7.3%
Supply
7.9%
10.8%
11.3%
-10%
Gap Ratio
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
10%
18.4%
21.2%
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
0%
7.0%
14,000
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
12,000
20%
10,000
30%
8,000
12,635
10,870
6,000
9,229
14,089 13,588 11,502
13,495
11,276
9,643
8,554
4,000
14,519 13,373
14,613
17,125
40% 50% 60%
2,000
70%
0
80% 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
8,554 9,643 11,276 13,373 13,495 11,502 13,588
12.7% 16.9% 18.6% 0.9% -14.8% 18.1%
9,229 10,870 12,635 14,519 17,125 14,089 14,613
17.8% 16.2% 14.9% 17.9% -17.7% 3.7%
cf. Containership Demand Forecast byConsultants & Research Companies Drewry IHS Global Insight 2011e 6.4% 4.6% 2012e 7.6% 6.7% Source： Drewry as of June 2011 IHS Global Insight as of May 2011
2010 (Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2011
⑩ Europe Inbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Europe → Asia ]
（1000TEU)
14,000
20%
Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
Gap Ratio
12,000
30%
35.3% 10,000
42.0%
40% 47.8%
8,000
49.3% 53.3%
6,000 4,000
4,613
8,251 4,782
9,543 4,979
2,000
11,166 5,217
49.6% 50%
60.2% 10,794
7,131
13,159
11,127 5,605
5,471
5,235
60%
70%
0
80% 2004
2005
2006
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
2007
2008
2009
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2010
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2011
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
4,613 4,782 4,979 5,217 5,235 5,471 5,605
3.7% 4.1% 4.8% 0.3% 4.5% 2.4%
7,131 8,251 9,543 11,166 13,159 10,794 11,127
15.7% 15.7% 17.0% 17.8% -18.0% 3.1%
5. Exchange Rate / Bunker Price ① Exchange Rate （Yen/US$） ¥120 ¥110 ¥100 ¥90 ¥80 ¥70 ¥60 2008/1
2008/4
2008/7 2008/10 2009/1 2009/4
2009/7 2009/10 2010/1
2010/4
2010/7 2010/10 2011/1
2011/4
② Bunker Price $800
*Price at Singapore (Grade:380CST)
($/MT)
$700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 2008/1
2008/4
2008/7 2008/10 2009/1
2009/4
2009/7 2009/10 2010/1
9
2010/4
2010/7 2010/10 2011/1
2011/4
1 2 2
2. Tankers ①VLCC Market ②Product Tanker Market
3 3
①Export Volumes of Automobile from Japan
4
3. Car Carriers
4. Container Cargo Trades ①China Containerized Freight Index ②World Total Containership Capacity ③Cargo Movements: North America Outbound ④Cargo Movements: North America Inbound ⑤Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Outbound ⑥Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Inbound ⑦North America Outbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑧North America Inbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑨Europe Outbound Supply-Demand Transition ⑩Europe Inbound Supply-Demand Transition
4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8
5. Exchange Rate / Bunker Price ①Exchange Rate ②Bunker Price
9 9
July 2011
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd.
1. Dry Bulk Carriers ① Dry Bulker Markets [4TC Charterage (monthly averages)] 4TC：Pacific Round、Pacific Atlantic、Atlantic Round、Atlantic Pacific
(Charte rage US$/day) 220,000
Cape siz e (165,000DWT)
200,000
12,000
10,844
Panamax (72,000DWT)
180,000
(BDI)
201,136
10,000
Handymax (55,000DWT)
160,000
Small Handy (28,000DWT)
140,000
BDI (Baltic Dry Inde x)
8,000
120,000
6,000
100,000 80,000
4,000
60,000 40,000
1,433 2,000
743
20,000 0 Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
10,780 0
3,995 Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-10
Charterage per day (US$/day) Upper row: Average of Calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-M ar.)
2001
Capesize Panamax Handymax Small Handy BDI
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Jan-11
S ource : Tramp Data S ervice
2007
2008
2009
2010
13,090
12,056
40,615
69,236
50,277
45,320
116,565
105,391
42,464
33,345
10,912
15,580
55,039
66,277
41,423
55,638
126,944
81,867
45,203
26,894
9,444
8,281
20,408
35,815
24,782
23,858
56,854
48,653
19,279
25,070
8,234
9,787
27,747
34,309
19,815
28,725
62,404
36,473
24,178
21,336
8,911
8,210
16,887
30,915
24,053
22,661
47,518
41,233
17,353
22,484
8,050
9,288
23,089
29,834
20,191
26,435
52,231
31,337
20,927
19,783
6,476
6,038
10,404
21,449
17,982
16,739
33,335
29,182
11,542
16,519
6,161
6,442
14,465
21,426
15,166
19,271
36,408
22,350
14,096
14,785
1,215
1,144
2,634
4,521
3,380
3,188
7,090
6,346
2,613
2,761
1,083
1,332
3,517
4,346
2,846
3,745
7,767
4,894
2,978
2,346
[4TC Charterage (daily)] 80,000
(B DI)
(C h arte rage US $/day) C ape s i z e Pan am ax H an dym ax S m al l H an dy B DI
60,000
5,000
4,000
3,000 40,000 2,000
20,000 1,000
0 Jan -10
0 Apr-10
Ju l -10
O ct-10
Jan -11
Apr-11
Charterage per day (US$/day) , Calendar Year, M onthly A verage
Capesize Panamax Handymax Small Handy BDI
M ar
S ource ： Bloomberg
Jan
Feb
A pr
2010
38,395
30,862
33,236
29,192
2011
10,217
5,874
8,991
2010
30,709
25,390
2011
13,816
13,392
2010
25,289
2011
14,231
2010 2011
M ay
Jun
Jul
48,550
38,113
15,858
7,665
7,372
10,780
32,351
31,268
34,766
26,844
16,440
12,811
13,903
14,647
22,313
27,676
26,977
31,526
24,985
12,591
16,047
15,013
14,703
14,123
17,294
15,829
19,778
19,835
21,405
18,910
11,137
9,777
11,140
11,834
11,695
10,971
2010
3,168
2,678
3,207
3,043
3,865
3,088
2011
1,401
1,181
1,493
1,343
1,352
1,433
A ug
Sep
Oct
Nov
27,749
35,430
42,516
35,633
Dec 25,162
33,391
18,047
22,956
24,069
18,779
18,282
17,550
25,084
18,719
19,944
20,620
19,217
15,931
16,764
22,497
14,697
15,092
15,743
14,430
11,985
12,117
16,426
1,910
2,432
2,719
2,693
2,321
2,031
2,763
BDI is calculated as an arithmetic average of the drybulker markets of the 4 different vessel types. Therefore, a fluctuation of BDI does not always coincide with those of the 4 drybulker markets.
1
A verage
② Drybulkers Port Congestion (Source: Howe Robinson)
(Number of Vessels)
200
Australian Loading Ports for Coal Brazilian Loading Ports for Iron O re
180
Australian Loading Ports for Iron O re Chinese Discharging Ports for Iron O re
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
③ Chinese Port Stock Pile of Imported Iron Ore (Source: Bloomberg)
100
(million ton)
95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55
2
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
50
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Jan-08
Mar-08
0
2. Tankers ① VLCC Market (Source: Drewry, RIM etc.) VLCC spot rate (AG/East)
Crude oil price(Dubai) 140
350 317
120
300
250
100
234
80
150
60
100
40
WS
US$/b
200
51 50
20
27
.
29 0
Average
Jan-2011
Jan-2010
Jan-2009
Jan-2008
Jan-2007
Jan-2006
Jan-2005
Jan-2004
Jan-2003
Jan-2002
Jan-2001
0
（ WS: World Scale) Upper row: Average of calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-Mar.)
2001 AG-Asia VLCC Freight
2002
66 51
2003
50 69
2004
93 94
2005
149 146
2006
101 100
2007
90 82
2008
79 90
2009
120 114
2010
40 49
69 63
AG:Arabian Gulf
Jan
2010 2011
Feb
97 50
M ar
76 61
Apr
76 63
M ay
88 50
Jun
72 51
Jul
90
Aug
57
Sept
50
Oct
47
Nov
47
Dec
66
59
② Product Tanker Market (Source: Drewry) WS 700 LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt 585
MR Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
600 463
500
407 400
414
346
406
403
437
395
371
300 213
283
260
200
208 196
158 100
157
145
117
00. 1 3 5 7 9 11 01. 1 3 5 7 9 11 02. 1 3 5 7 9 11 03. 1 3 5 7 9 11 04. 1 3 5 7 9 11 05. 1 3 5 7 9 11 06. 1 3 5 7 9 11 07. 1 3 5 7 9 11 08. 1 3 5 7 9 11 09. 1 3 5 7 9 11 10. 1 3 5 7 9 11 11. 1 3 5
0
Average
（ WS: World Scale) Upper row: Average of calendar year (Jan.-Dec.) / Lower row: Average of fiscal year (Apr.-Mar.)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt
237 292
249 183
152 182
218 214
251 259
276 269
214 198
181 185
250 226
93 104
133 128
MR Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
285 333
287 224
196 223
265 267
307 318
366 368
312 293
274 269
287 251
117 128
173 172
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
LR AG-JP 50-60,000 dwt
2010 2011
151 119
139 111
124 122
126 142
M R Spr.-East 25-30,000 dwt
2010 2011
145 139
155 135
144 159
143 185
3
May
-
Jun
Jul
Aug
143 145
123
128
161
215
240
161
155
Sept 141 -
Oct
Nov
Dec
110
120
128
183
165
193
3. Car Carriers ① Export Volumes of Automobile from Japan (Source:Japan Automobile Manufactures Association) (Broken Line: yoy-change)
(Bar/Unit:1000 )
500
100% 80%
400
60% 40%
300
20% 0%
200
-20% -40%
100
-60% -80%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2009
2010
2011
* New vehicle (incl. KD)
3. Container Cargo Trades ① China Containerized Freight Index (Source:SSE) CCFI W/C America Service
CCFI E/C America Service
CCFI Europe Service
2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 1998.1.1＝1,000
700
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Jan-08
Apr-08
500
* CCFI reflects the freight rate trend for container exports from China only, which does not always match the overall trend for container exports from Asia. Therefore, this information is provided and updated only for reference purposes.
② World Total Containership Capacity （1,000TEU） 16,000 14,000
18%
under 3,999TEU 8,000～9,999TEU
4,000～5,999TEU over 10,000TEU
6,000～7,999TEU Growth
16%
12,000
14%
10,000
12%
8,000
10%
6,000
8%
4,000
6%
2,000
4%
0 '90
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
4
'02
'03
'04
2% '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Source：World Register of Ship - HIS Fairplay
Calendar Year
③ Cargo Movements: North America Outbound (Asia→North America) 1,400
(Broken Line: yoy-change)
(Bar:1000TEU)
60% 50% 40%
1,200 1,000
30% 20% 10% 0% -10%
800 600 400
-20% -30% -40%
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2009
2010
2009 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010
Cumulative
950 722 835 876 911 898 994 1,036 1,045 1,085 982 935 11,268
2011
950 1,671 2,506 3,382 4,293 5,191 6,185 7,221 8,267 9,351 10,333 11,268
M onthly
995 907 918 992 1,101 1,145 1,174 1,255 1,173 1,196 1,111 995 12,963
Increase/ decrease
2011
Cumulative
4.8% 25.7% 10.0% 13.3% 20.8% 27.5% 18.1% 21.1% 12.2% 10.3% 13.1% 6.4%
995 1,903 2,821 3,813 4,914 6,059 7,232 8,488 9,660 10,857 11,967 12,963
Increase/ decrease
4.8% 13.8% 12.6% 12.7% 14.5% 16.7% 16.9% 17.5% 16.9% 16.1% 15.8% 15.0%
M onthly
Increase/ decrease
1,113 979 849 1,065
Cumulative
11.8% 7.9% -7.5% 7.3%
1,113 2,092 2,941 4,006
Increase/ decrease
11.8% 9.9% 4.3% 5.1%
4,006 Source：Piers JoC
④ Cargo Movements: North America Inbound (North America→Asia) 700
(Bar:1000TEU)
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
600 500 400 300 200 100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2009
2010
2009 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
377 411 514 507 534 517 512 527 503 520 516 536 5,973
2011
2010
Cumulative
377 788 1,302 1,809 2,343 2,860 3,372 3,899 4,402 4,922 5,437 5,973
M onthly
472 487 528 535 522 498 499 503 482 552 552 556 6,186
Increase/ decrease
25.3% 18.4% 2.7% 5.5% -2.2% -3.8% -2.5% -4.6% -4.2% 6.2% 7.0% 3.8%
2011
Cumulative
472 959 1,487 2,022 2,544 3,042 3,540 4,044 4,525 5,077 5,629 6,186
Increase/ decrease
25.3% 21.7% 14.2% 11.7% 8.6% 6.3% 5.0% 3.7% 2.8% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6%
M onthly
507 519 604 591
Increase/ decrease
7.3% 6.6% 14.4% 10.5%
Cumulative
507 1,026 1,532 2,221
Increase/ decrease
7.3% 7.0% 3.0% 9.8%
2,221 Source：Piers JoC
5
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
⑤ Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Outbound (Asia→Europe) 1,400
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
(Bar:1000TEU)
60% 50% 40%
1,200 1,000
30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
800 600 400 200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2009
2010
2009 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010
Cumulative
1,018 618 955 878 933 955 993 1,068 1,052 953 971 1,099 11,493
2011
1,018 1,636 2,591 3,469 4,402 5,357 6,350 7,418 8,470 9,423 10,394 11,493
M onthly
1,115 941 1,075 1,119 1,156 1,153 1,213 1,239 1,120 1,088 1,106 1,193 13,517
Increase/ decrease
2011
Cumulative
9.4% 52.3% 12.6% 27.5% 24.0% 20.6% 22.1% 16.0% 6.5% 14.1% 13.9% 8.6%
1,115 2,056 3,131 4,250 5,406 6,559 7,771 9,010 10,130 11,217 12,323 13,517
Increase/ decrease
9.4% 25.6% 20.8% 22.5% 22.8% 22.4% 22.4% 21.5% 19.6% 19.0% 18.6% 17.6%
Increase/ decrease
M onthly
1,314 855 1,167 1,163
17.9% -9.2% 8.5% 3.9%
1,314 2,169 3,335 4,498
17.6% 5.5% 6.5% 5.8%
4,498 Source：CTS
⑥ Cargo Movements: Europe-Asia Inbound (Europe→Asia)
600
Increase/ decrease
Cumulative
(Bar:1000TEU)
(Broken Line:yoy-change)
60% 50% 40% 30% 20%
500 400 300
10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
200 100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
2009
2010
2009 M onthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
310 359 451 439 498 484 493 465 488 476 464 543 5,471
2011
2010
Cumulative
310 669 1,120 1,559 2,057 2,541 3,035 3,500 3,987 4,463 4,927 5,471
M onthly
418 450 511 476 482 469 465 447 446 461 470 473 5,569
Increase/ decrease
2011
Cumulative
34.7% 25.4% 13.2% 8.6% -3.2% -3.1% -5.8% -3.9% -8.6% -3.2% 1.3% -12.9%
418 868 1,379 1,856 2,338 2,807 3,272 3,719 4,164 4,625 5,096 5,569
Increase/ decrease
34.7% 29.7% 23.1% 19.0% 13.6% 10.4% 7.8% 6.3% 4.4% 3.6% 3.4% 1.8%
M onthly
451 451 542 491
Increase/ decrease
7.9% 0.2% 6.1% 3.1%
Cumulative
451 902 1,444 1,935
Increase/ decrease
8.0% 3.9% 4.3% 4.3%
1,935 Source：CTS
6
⑦ North America Outbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Asia → North America ] (1000TEU)
18,000
-10%
Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
16,000 0% 14,000 10.4% 12,000
13.7%
12.4%
12.9%
11.6%
12.1%
13.9%
10,000
6,000 4,000
10%
18.0% 16,347
8,000 11,378
10,016 9,817 8,974
12,841 11,248
14,68514,080 12,792
16,655 14,644
16,537 25.0% 13,562
20% 15,631 13,819 30%
15,620 11,722
40% 2,000 0
50% 2002
2003
2004
2005
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
Gap Ratio
2006
2007
2008
2009
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
8,974 9,817 11,248 12,792 14,080 14,644 13,562 11,722 13,819
21.3% 9.4% 14.6% 13.7% 10.1% 4.0% -7.4% -13.6% 17.9%
10,016 11,378 12,841 14,685 16,347 16,655 16,537 15,620 15,631
6.5% 13.6% 12.9% 14.4% 11.3% 1.9% -0.7% -5.5% 0.1%
cf. Containership Demand Forecast byConsultants & Research Companies Drewry IHS Global Insight 2011e 7.7% 6.2% 2012e 10.6% 6.7% Source： Drewry as of June 2011
IHS Global Insight as of May 2011
2010
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2011
⑧ North America Inbound Supply-Demand Transition [ North America → Asia ] 16,000
(1000TEU)
40% Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
14,000
46.5%
12,000
55.7%
56.2% 59.1% 12,239
6,000 10,622
2,000
8,108 3,951
50%
51.9%
52.5%
8,000
4,000
45%
49.4% 51.3%
10,000
13,758 60.9%
13,747
55% 12,925
13,547
60%
12,761
9,220
4,378
4,654
5,000
5,381
6,093
6,522
6,459
6,910 65%
70%
0 2002
2003
2004
2005
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
Gap Ratio
2006
2007
2008
2009
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2010
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2011
7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3,951 4,378 4,654 5,000 5,381 6,093 6,522 6,459 6,910
8.1% 10.8% 6.3% 7.4% 7.6% 13.2% 7.0% -1.0% 7.0%
8,108 9,220 10,622 12,239 13,758 13,747 13,547 12,761 12,925
7.5% 13.7% 15.2% 15.2% 12.4% -0.1% -1.5% -5.8% 1.3%
⑨ Europe Outbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Asia → Europe ]
（1000TEU)
18,000
Demand
16,000
7.3%
Supply
7.9%
10.8%
11.3%
-10%
Gap Ratio
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
10%
18.4%
21.2%
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
0%
7.0%
14,000
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
12,000
20%
10,000
30%
8,000
12,635
10,870
6,000
9,229
14,089 13,588 11,502
13,495
11,276
9,643
8,554
4,000
14,519 13,373
14,613
17,125
40% 50% 60%
2,000
70%
0
80% 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
8,554 9,643 11,276 13,373 13,495 11,502 13,588
12.7% 16.9% 18.6% 0.9% -14.8% 18.1%
9,229 10,870 12,635 14,519 17,125 14,089 14,613
17.8% 16.2% 14.9% 17.9% -17.7% 3.7%
cf. Containership Demand Forecast byConsultants & Research Companies Drewry IHS Global Insight 2011e 6.4% 4.6% 2012e 7.6% 6.7% Source： Drewry as of June 2011 IHS Global Insight as of May 2011
2010 (Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2011
⑩ Europe Inbound Supply-Demand Transition [ Europe → Asia ]
（1000TEU)
14,000
20%
Demand
Supply
Demand Supply 1000TEU yoy growth 1000TEU yoy growth
Gap Ratio
12,000
30%
35.3% 10,000
42.0%
40% 47.8%
8,000
49.3% 53.3%
6,000 4,000
4,613
8,251 4,782
9,543 4,979
2,000
11,166 5,217
49.6% 50%
60.2% 10,794
7,131
13,159
11,127 5,605
5,471
5,235
60%
70%
0
80% 2004
2005
2006
Annual Cargo Movement & Growth
2007
2008
2009
*Gap Ratio = (Supply-Demand）/Supply(%)
2010
(Calendar year)
Source: Drewry as of April 2011
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
4,613 4,782 4,979 5,217 5,235 5,471 5,605
3.7% 4.1% 4.8% 0.3% 4.5% 2.4%
7,131 8,251 9,543 11,166 13,159 10,794 11,127
15.7% 15.7% 17.0% 17.8% -18.0% 3.1%
5. Exchange Rate / Bunker Price ① Exchange Rate （Yen/US$） ¥120 ¥110 ¥100 ¥90 ¥80 ¥70 ¥60 2008/1
2008/4
2008/7 2008/10 2009/1 2009/4
2009/7 2009/10 2010/1
2010/4
2010/7 2010/10 2011/1
2011/4
② Bunker Price $800
*Price at Singapore (Grade:380CST)
($/MT)
$700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 2008/1
2008/4
2008/7 2008/10 2009/1
2009/4
2009/7 2009/10 2010/1
9
2010/4
2010/7 2010/10 2011/1
2011/4
