MARKET UPDATE
MARKET UPDATE 2nd QUARTER, 2009 Greetings from Coldwell Banker Bill Beck Real Estate :
20 Seymour Street Middlebury, VT 05753 (802)388-7983 (800)639-1762
30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4
2008
Ju Se pte ly m be No r ve nb er
M ay
2009
M ar ch
Sales in the upper end of the market continue to be the weakest area. If we look at sales over $400,000 in the three counties during the second quarter, we find 95 sales in 2007, 78 in 2008 and 56 in 2009. That amounts to a 42% decline over three years.
Some other positive trends have also emerged lately. The stock market has been gaining a lot of ground lately and the news media are even writing articles claiming that the recession is over – or almost over. These are the kind of articles we need to see more often. The confidence of the American consumer has been badly bruised and will likely take time to be restored. It is unlikely that we will bounce back out of this recession in the short run. It seems that a slower more cautious climb will be the path taken.
Ja nu ary
The second quarter is traditionally the strongest quarter for real estate sales and that makes the numbers even more disappointing. Despite low interest rates and a good selection of properties, sales have just not materialized.
Some good news during the second quarter was that prices have reflected the same kind of numbers that we saw for all of last year. For the 57 sales in the second quarter, the average sale price was 259,411 vs. 260,649 for all of last year while the median sale price was 226,000 vs. 221,000 for last year. It is comforting to see that we are not experiencing the double digit declines that have become common in many markets
Percent
The ongoing national recession continues to negatively impact real estate sales in Addison County and throughout Vermont. For the second quarter of 2009 there were 57 unit sales in Addison County compared with 78 in 2008 for a decline of 27%. In Chittenden County the numbers were 383 for 2009 vs. 408 in 2008 – a decline of 7%. And in Rutland County there were 98 sales in 09 vs. 118 in 08, a decline of 17%. If we compare the same quarter of 2009 to the 2007 quarter, the numbers become more significant. Addison County down 28%, Chittenden County down 24% and Rutland County down 40%.
www.billbeck.com Averaging over 800 visitor sessions per day
268 Main Street Vergennes, VT 05491 (802)877-3125
MLS RESIDENTIAL SALES DURING 2009 2nd QTR. STREET
15 Maple 126 Benedict Drive 1859 Carlstrom 101 South Bingham 133 Edgewood 2011 Bingham 9 Lucia 16 Dakin 222 Lewis Creek 226 Little Chicago 307 Monkton 1576 Sand 4215 Sand 4234 Ethan Allen 5655 Rte 7 30 Recreation Drive 110 Lake Dunmore 167 Winding 1316 Lake Dunmore 3033 South Lincoln Road 16 Twin Circles 27 Twin Circles 32 Twin Circles 70 Maple Street 1 South Gorham Lane 5 Swanage 10 Stonegate Drive 26 Stewart Lane 28 School House Hill Road 29 Short Shannon Street 37 Washington 58 Ossie Road 120 Peterson Terrace 329 Woodland Park 342 Dragon Brook Road 387 East Main Street 757 Weybridge 1207 Halladay Rd 62 Hardscrabble 231 Rotax 441 Piney Woods 1834 Plank 410 Ridgeline 353 Billing Farm 618 West Shore 1010 Smead 1412 Smead Road 1974 West Shore Rd 2801 Route 74 11 Cherry 26 Hillside Manor 38 MacDonough 44 MacDonough 64 West Main Street 89 Water 6051 Snake Mountain 373 Leicester Whiting Road
TOWN
Bristol Bristol Bristol Cornwall Cornwall Cornwall Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Hancock Leicester Leicester Leicester Lincoln Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Monkton Monkton Monkton New Haven Panton Ripton Salisbury Salisbury Salisbury Salisbury Shoreham Starksboro Starksboro Vergennes Vergennes Vergennes Vergennes Weybridge Whiting
RES TYPE
Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Condo Condo Condo Condo Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Mobile Mobile Res Res Res Res Res Res
TOTAL SQFT
1660 1379 1697 2055 3166 2036 1100 2174 2080 2900 1350 2468 3490 2400 1664 816 1885 800 1386 2744 1412 1520 1350 2438 1680 1950 1852 1700 840 676 2488 1409 1540 1900 1300 1843 1566 2500 1442 1850 1520 1772 2040 1600 5464 960 1680 2247 2000 1680 924 1100 2196 2080 2340 3106 1650
LIST DATE
01/27/09 04/06/09 02/20/09 04/16/08 04/22/09 02/02/09 05/19/08 04/12/08 11/07/08 05/21/08 09/25/08 09/15/08 06/07/08 09/30/07 09/30/08 01/07/08 05/20/09 03/16/09 06/13/08 05/28/09 02/25/08 05/08/08 10/01/08 10/25/07 02/19/09 03/28/09 04/15/09 04/09/09 09/18/08 02/20/09 02/05/09 02/19/09 02/28/09 09/16/08 10/17/08 12/30/08 07/10/08 11/12/07 09/20/08 05/05/09 03/15/09 04/03/09 03/17/09 10/08/08 03/04/09 01/15/09 01/15/09 03/13/09 10/09/08 01/20/09 04/06/09 08/27/08 01/24/09 01/05/09 03/06/09 09/03/08 02/10/09
Days on Market
40 15 60 274 NA 18 342 15 138 301 203 213 333 548 239 93 NA 2 280 20 487 367 190 101 22 17 13 6 223 20 91 8 54 213 143 96 114 548 199 4 62 1 47 152 61 56 132 30 230 51 43 144 42 65 3 215 28
PREVIOUS PRICE
269,000
389,900 239,900 329,900 379,000
595,000 229,900 125,000
139,900 209,900 235,000 219,000 695,000
115,000
324,500 250,000
240,000
219,000 89,000 195,500 239,900 20,000
475,000
LIST $
SELL $
233,900 245,000 279,000 259,000 625,000 525,000 365,000 229,900 319,900 359,900 149,500 240,000 579,000 289,900 239,900 135,000 199,900 229,900 129,900 479,000 199,000 230,000 209,000 659,000 328,500 243,900 175,000 275,000 95,000 195,000 350,000 239,900 159,750 317,999 229,000 219,000 189,000 225,000 197,600 315,000 259,000 250,000 749,500 209,000 650,000 79,000 184,500 284,000 226,687 35,000 14,900 144,900 265,000 199,900 179,900 465,000 380,000
226,000 235,000 264,000 242,000 610,500 500,000 315,000 217,000 295,000 345,000 149,500 220,000 487,500 260,000 245,000 108,000 180,000 222,500 106,000 464,000 180,000 205,000 205,500 630,000 305,000 239,000 165,000 265,000 80,000 187,500 326,000 241,400 155,750 298,500 196,000 219,000 187,000 225,000 191,000 300,000 259,000 245,000 687,500 189,000 575,000 76,000 180,000 280,000 220,000 18,500 14,900 144,900 250,000 180,000 180,000 453,000 340,000
SELL LIST %
97% 96% 95% 93% 98% 95% 86% 94% 92% 96% 100% 92% 84% 90% 102% 80% 90% 97% 82% 97% 90% 89% 98% 96% 93% 98% 94% 96% 84% 96% 93% 101% 97% 94% 86% 100% 99% 100% 97% 95% 100% 98% 92% 90% 88% 96% 98% 99% 97% 53% 100% 100% 94% 90% 100% 97% 89%
Assessment
% of Assess-ment
169,100 171,000 229,200 201,700 512,400 367,700 222,500 252,400 245,600 233,200 136,900 224,600 621,000 275,700 282,100 NA 198,500 298,100 NA 259,300 169,400 176,700 173,700 NA 260,400 191,700 140,300 237,600 117,700 152,200 279,100 152,800 130,300 208,600 145,000 149,700 203,600 263,600 152,200 275,800 186,500 196,200 459,600 236,000 597,700 82,500 173,200 186,000 216,100 NA 18,700 110,700 299,000 235,000 238,800 496,000 344,300
134% 137% 115% 120% 119% 136% 142% 86% 120% 148% 109% 98% 79% 94% 87% 91% 75% 179% 106% 116% 118% 117% 125% 118% 112% 68% 123% 117% 158% 120% 143% 135% 146% 92% 85% 125% 109% 139% 125% 150% 80% 96% 92% 104% 151% 102% 80% 131% 84% 77% 75% 91% 99%
20 Seymour Street Middlebury, VT 05753 (802)388-7983 (800)639-1762
30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4
2008
Ju Se pte ly m be No r ve nb er
M ay
2009
M ar ch
Sales in the upper end of the market continue to be the weakest area. If we look at sales over $400,000 in the three counties during the second quarter, we find 95 sales in 2007, 78 in 2008 and 56 in 2009. That amounts to a 42% decline over three years.
Some other positive trends have also emerged lately. The stock market has been gaining a lot of ground lately and the news media are even writing articles claiming that the recession is over – or almost over. These are the kind of articles we need to see more often. The confidence of the American consumer has been badly bruised and will likely take time to be restored. It is unlikely that we will bounce back out of this recession in the short run. It seems that a slower more cautious climb will be the path taken.
Ja nu ary
The second quarter is traditionally the strongest quarter for real estate sales and that makes the numbers even more disappointing. Despite low interest rates and a good selection of properties, sales have just not materialized.
Some good news during the second quarter was that prices have reflected the same kind of numbers that we saw for all of last year. For the 57 sales in the second quarter, the average sale price was 259,411 vs. 260,649 for all of last year while the median sale price was 226,000 vs. 221,000 for last year. It is comforting to see that we are not experiencing the double digit declines that have become common in many markets
Percent
The ongoing national recession continues to negatively impact real estate sales in Addison County and throughout Vermont. For the second quarter of 2009 there were 57 unit sales in Addison County compared with 78 in 2008 for a decline of 27%. In Chittenden County the numbers were 383 for 2009 vs. 408 in 2008 – a decline of 7%. And in Rutland County there were 98 sales in 09 vs. 118 in 08, a decline of 17%. If we compare the same quarter of 2009 to the 2007 quarter, the numbers become more significant. Addison County down 28%, Chittenden County down 24% and Rutland County down 40%.
www.billbeck.com Averaging over 800 visitor sessions per day
268 Main Street Vergennes, VT 05491 (802)877-3125
MLS RESIDENTIAL SALES DURING 2009 2nd QTR. STREET
15 Maple 126 Benedict Drive 1859 Carlstrom 101 South Bingham 133 Edgewood 2011 Bingham 9 Lucia 16 Dakin 222 Lewis Creek 226 Little Chicago 307 Monkton 1576 Sand 4215 Sand 4234 Ethan Allen 5655 Rte 7 30 Recreation Drive 110 Lake Dunmore 167 Winding 1316 Lake Dunmore 3033 South Lincoln Road 16 Twin Circles 27 Twin Circles 32 Twin Circles 70 Maple Street 1 South Gorham Lane 5 Swanage 10 Stonegate Drive 26 Stewart Lane 28 School House Hill Road 29 Short Shannon Street 37 Washington 58 Ossie Road 120 Peterson Terrace 329 Woodland Park 342 Dragon Brook Road 387 East Main Street 757 Weybridge 1207 Halladay Rd 62 Hardscrabble 231 Rotax 441 Piney Woods 1834 Plank 410 Ridgeline 353 Billing Farm 618 West Shore 1010 Smead 1412 Smead Road 1974 West Shore Rd 2801 Route 74 11 Cherry 26 Hillside Manor 38 MacDonough 44 MacDonough 64 West Main Street 89 Water 6051 Snake Mountain 373 Leicester Whiting Road
TOWN
Bristol Bristol Bristol Cornwall Cornwall Cornwall Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Ferrisburg Hancock Leicester Leicester Leicester Lincoln Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Middlebury Monkton Monkton Monkton New Haven Panton Ripton Salisbury Salisbury Salisbury Salisbury Shoreham Starksboro Starksboro Vergennes Vergennes Vergennes Vergennes Weybridge Whiting
RES TYPE
Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Condo Condo Condo Condo Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Res Mobile Mobile Res Res Res Res Res Res
TOTAL SQFT
1660 1379 1697 2055 3166 2036 1100 2174 2080 2900 1350 2468 3490 2400 1664 816 1885 800 1386 2744 1412 1520 1350 2438 1680 1950 1852 1700 840 676 2488 1409 1540 1900 1300 1843 1566 2500 1442 1850 1520 1772 2040 1600 5464 960 1680 2247 2000 1680 924 1100 2196 2080 2340 3106 1650
LIST DATE
01/27/09 04/06/09 02/20/09 04/16/08 04/22/09 02/02/09 05/19/08 04/12/08 11/07/08 05/21/08 09/25/08 09/15/08 06/07/08 09/30/07 09/30/08 01/07/08 05/20/09 03/16/09 06/13/08 05/28/09 02/25/08 05/08/08 10/01/08 10/25/07 02/19/09 03/28/09 04/15/09 04/09/09 09/18/08 02/20/09 02/05/09 02/19/09 02/28/09 09/16/08 10/17/08 12/30/08 07/10/08 11/12/07 09/20/08 05/05/09 03/15/09 04/03/09 03/17/09 10/08/08 03/04/09 01/15/09 01/15/09 03/13/09 10/09/08 01/20/09 04/06/09 08/27/08 01/24/09 01/05/09 03/06/09 09/03/08 02/10/09
Days on Market
40 15 60 274 NA 18 342 15 138 301 203 213 333 548 239 93 NA 2 280 20 487 367 190 101 22 17 13 6 223 20 91 8 54 213 143 96 114 548 199 4 62 1 47 152 61 56 132 30 230 51 43 144 42 65 3 215 28
PREVIOUS PRICE
269,000
389,900 239,900 329,900 379,000
595,000 229,900 125,000
139,900 209,900 235,000 219,000 695,000
115,000
324,500 250,000
240,000
219,000 89,000 195,500 239,900 20,000
475,000
LIST $
SELL $
233,900 245,000 279,000 259,000 625,000 525,000 365,000 229,900 319,900 359,900 149,500 240,000 579,000 289,900 239,900 135,000 199,900 229,900 129,900 479,000 199,000 230,000 209,000 659,000 328,500 243,900 175,000 275,000 95,000 195,000 350,000 239,900 159,750 317,999 229,000 219,000 189,000 225,000 197,600 315,000 259,000 250,000 749,500 209,000 650,000 79,000 184,500 284,000 226,687 35,000 14,900 144,900 265,000 199,900 179,900 465,000 380,000
226,000 235,000 264,000 242,000 610,500 500,000 315,000 217,000 295,000 345,000 149,500 220,000 487,500 260,000 245,000 108,000 180,000 222,500 106,000 464,000 180,000 205,000 205,500 630,000 305,000 239,000 165,000 265,000 80,000 187,500 326,000 241,400 155,750 298,500 196,000 219,000 187,000 225,000 191,000 300,000 259,000 245,000 687,500 189,000 575,000 76,000 180,000 280,000 220,000 18,500 14,900 144,900 250,000 180,000 180,000 453,000 340,000
SELL LIST %
97% 96% 95% 93% 98% 95% 86% 94% 92% 96% 100% 92% 84% 90% 102% 80% 90% 97% 82% 97% 90% 89% 98% 96% 93% 98% 94% 96% 84% 96% 93% 101% 97% 94% 86% 100% 99% 100% 97% 95% 100% 98% 92% 90% 88% 96% 98% 99% 97% 53% 100% 100% 94% 90% 100% 97% 89%
Assessment
% of Assess-ment
169,100 171,000 229,200 201,700 512,400 367,700 222,500 252,400 245,600 233,200 136,900 224,600 621,000 275,700 282,100 NA 198,500 298,100 NA 259,300 169,400 176,700 173,700 NA 260,400 191,700 140,300 237,600 117,700 152,200 279,100 152,800 130,300 208,600 145,000 149,700 203,600 263,600 152,200 275,800 186,500 196,200 459,600 236,000 597,700 82,500 173,200 186,000 216,100 NA 18,700 110,700 299,000 235,000 238,800 496,000 344,300
134% 137% 115% 120% 119% 136% 142% 86% 120% 148% 109% 98% 79% 94% 87% 91% 75% 179% 106% 116% 118% 117% 125% 118% 112% 68% 123% 117% 158% 120% 143% 135% 146% 92% 85% 125% 109% 139% 125% 150% 80% 96% 92% 104% 151% 102% 80% 131% 84% 77% 75% 91% 99%
