MassDOT-FHWA Pilot Project Steven Miller
MassDOT-FHWA Pilot Project Steven Miller Environmental Section EMS and Sustainability MassDOT
MassDOT-FHWA Pilot Project: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation Options of the Central Artery Steven Miller, MassDOT Ellen Douglas, UMass Boston Paul Kirshen, UNH 2
June 24, 2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Superstorm Sandy provided realization that MassDOT has potentially vulnerable infrastructure. Central Artery dates to mid-20th century. Both at-grade and sub-grade structures. Infrastructure vulnerable to both current and future flooding events.
Identification of target areas and assets. Initially focusing Central Artery. 3
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
TBHA-Spring High Tide + 5 ft storm surge
4
June 24, 2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
TBHA-High Tide + 5 ft storm surge+2.5 ft SLR
5
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
6
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Development of vulnerability assessment framework. Tip O’Neil, Callahan, Sumner, and Ted Williams tunnel entrances, MBTA Aquarium, Station entrance and Red, Blue and Silverline Way near South Station Rose Kennedy Greenway Assets and openings related to above.
Submission of FHWA pilot proposal. Notice to Proceed: April 16, 2013 7
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 1: Initial Determination of Geographical Scope Map features at or below 14 ft NAVD. Delineate boundaries for critical study areas based on climate change scenarios. Identify MassDOT personnel familiar with infrastructure features and assets. Establish database for study areas. Anticipated completion: Jul 31, 2013. 8
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 2: Detailed Surveys of Assets within the Project Area Inventory features and assets within study areas. Photograph, compile and digitize. 40 sites proposed, more possible. Anticipated completion: Aug 31, 2013.
9
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 3: Surveys of Critical Areas of Central Artery Spot check of LiDAR terrain data. Selected ground survey of the following: Flood pathways Openings below 14 ft NAVD Important flooded areas
Anticipated completion: Oct 31, 2013.
10
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 4: Hydrodynamic Analysis Advanced Circulation Model for Oceanic, Coastal, and Estuarine Waters (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model of Boston Harbor Maps based on “bathtub” model do not reflect affects of bathymetry, coastal geometry, development. ADCIRC model to include tides, storm surge, wind and coupled with simulating waves nearshore (SWAN) model to provide waves and wave-setup. 11
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Grid Development Grid will cover a large regional area (North Atlantic) to capture large-scale storm (hurricane, nor’easter) dynamics. Unstructured grid = varying resolution with high resolution in areas of interest (Central Artery) Use of site-specific survey information and existing LiDAR and bathymetric data to define grid elevation.
12
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Grid Development Large regional area to capture storm dynamics
Unstructured grid
13
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Modeling of Combined Storm Surge Risk and SLR Storm climatology Storm parameterization Present and future storm simulations Develop water level Cumulative Distribution Functions Monte Carlo approach
14
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
15
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Generate Model Input and Boundary Conditions Storm frequency and wave conditions River Inflow Wind and pressure input fields Tidal Boundary conditions Wind drag and bottom friction coefficients
Simulate flooding associated with sea level rise (SLR) projections for 2030, 2070, 2100. Anticipated completion: Dec 31, 2013. 16
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 5: Vulnerability Assessment Exposure: what features, assets, properties will be impacted under each scenario. Sensitivity: how much effect will the impacts have on current and future operations. Adaptive capacity: how quickly can the system recover from impacts. Evaluate alternative routes, costs of restoring service, and other metrics. Anticipated completion: Mar 31, 2014. 17
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 6: Adaptation Strategy Mix of local and regional actions – coordinated with other organizations. Here and now: implemented later as the climate changes but options preserved now. Actions selected based upon benefit-cost analysis and other criteria. Prepare and monitor: implemented when climate and /or socio-economic thresholds or trigger points reached. Periodic re-evaluation. Anticipated completion: Jun 30, 2014 18
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 7: Present Results and Prepare Final Report to MassDOT Senior Management Assumes 2 months for internal review of adaptation plans. Results will be available to other stakeholders (ie., BWSC, Massport, MBTA, Cambridge and others).
Anticipated completion: Oct 31, 2014. 19
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
MassDOT-FHWA Pilot Project: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation Options of the Central Artery Steven Miller, MassDOT Ellen Douglas, UMass Boston Paul Kirshen, UNH 2
June 24, 2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Superstorm Sandy provided realization that MassDOT has potentially vulnerable infrastructure. Central Artery dates to mid-20th century. Both at-grade and sub-grade structures. Infrastructure vulnerable to both current and future flooding events.
Identification of target areas and assets. Initially focusing Central Artery. 3
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
TBHA-Spring High Tide + 5 ft storm surge
4
June 24, 2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
TBHA-High Tide + 5 ft storm surge+2.5 ft SLR
5
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
6
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Development of vulnerability assessment framework. Tip O’Neil, Callahan, Sumner, and Ted Williams tunnel entrances, MBTA Aquarium, Station entrance and Red, Blue and Silverline Way near South Station Rose Kennedy Greenway Assets and openings related to above.
Submission of FHWA pilot proposal. Notice to Proceed: April 16, 2013 7
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 1: Initial Determination of Geographical Scope Map features at or below 14 ft NAVD. Delineate boundaries for critical study areas based on climate change scenarios. Identify MassDOT personnel familiar with infrastructure features and assets. Establish database for study areas. Anticipated completion: Jul 31, 2013. 8
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 2: Detailed Surveys of Assets within the Project Area Inventory features and assets within study areas. Photograph, compile and digitize. 40 sites proposed, more possible. Anticipated completion: Aug 31, 2013.
9
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 3: Surveys of Critical Areas of Central Artery Spot check of LiDAR terrain data. Selected ground survey of the following: Flood pathways Openings below 14 ft NAVD Important flooded areas
Anticipated completion: Oct 31, 2013.
10
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 4: Hydrodynamic Analysis Advanced Circulation Model for Oceanic, Coastal, and Estuarine Waters (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model of Boston Harbor Maps based on “bathtub” model do not reflect affects of bathymetry, coastal geometry, development. ADCIRC model to include tides, storm surge, wind and coupled with simulating waves nearshore (SWAN) model to provide waves and wave-setup. 11
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Grid Development Grid will cover a large regional area (North Atlantic) to capture large-scale storm (hurricane, nor’easter) dynamics. Unstructured grid = varying resolution with high resolution in areas of interest (Central Artery) Use of site-specific survey information and existing LiDAR and bathymetric data to define grid elevation.
12
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Grid Development Large regional area to capture storm dynamics
Unstructured grid
13
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Modeling of Combined Storm Surge Risk and SLR Storm climatology Storm parameterization Present and future storm simulations Develop water level Cumulative Distribution Functions Monte Carlo approach
14
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
15
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
Generate Model Input and Boundary Conditions Storm frequency and wave conditions River Inflow Wind and pressure input fields Tidal Boundary conditions Wind drag and bottom friction coefficients
Simulate flooding associated with sea level rise (SLR) projections for 2030, 2070, 2100. Anticipated completion: Dec 31, 2013. 16
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 5: Vulnerability Assessment Exposure: what features, assets, properties will be impacted under each scenario. Sensitivity: how much effect will the impacts have on current and future operations. Adaptive capacity: how quickly can the system recover from impacts. Evaluate alternative routes, costs of restoring service, and other metrics. Anticipated completion: Mar 31, 2014. 17
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 6: Adaptation Strategy Mix of local and regional actions – coordinated with other organizations. Here and now: implemented later as the climate changes but options preserved now. Actions selected based upon benefit-cost analysis and other criteria. Prepare and monitor: implemented when climate and /or socio-economic thresholds or trigger points reached. Periodic re-evaluation. Anticipated completion: Jun 30, 2014 18
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
PHASE 7: Present Results and Prepare Final Report to MassDOT Senior Management Assumes 2 months for internal review of adaptation plans. Results will be available to other stakeholders (ie., BWSC, Massport, MBTA, Cambridge and others).
Anticipated completion: Oct 31, 2014. 19
6/24/2013
| Leading the Nation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot
