MC Group Buy (TP Bt16.60)
Earnings Review
Close Bt13.20
Commerce August 15, 2016
Beat forecast/Below forecast/In line 2Q16 results beat expectation Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.996
1.100
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐3.6%
‐1.8%
Reuters / Bloomberg
MC.BK/MC TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
800.00
Par (Bt)
0.50
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
11.00/327.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/21.41
52 week High / Low (Bt)
15.40/11.10
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
1,303.00
NVDR (%)
0.90
Estimated free float (%)
38.9
Beta
0.62
URL
www.mcgroupnet.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Waraporn Wiboonkanarak Analyst, no. 2482
[email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6273
BUY maintained MC’s effort to launch active promotional campaigns seems to have borne fruit given its earnings improvement YoY. Our earnings estimate has upside risk on its JV’s better performance recorded in 1H16. MC remains our preferred choice owing to its operating performance improvement as well as its attractive yield. Thus, our BUY rating is maintained. 2Q16 NP above view on shared profit from JV MC posted a net profit of Bt191mn (EPS: Bt0.18) in 2Q16, beating our forecast and the street by 6% and 3%, respectively. This was mainly due to a higher contribution from its JV, McT. Shared profit from the JV hit Bt16.4mn, turning around from a loss of Bt9mn in the previous quarter. Note that McT just started its operation in 3Q15. 2Q16 core earnings flat YoY If stripping out shared profit from the JV, MC’s core operation remained flat YoY. Its sales jumped 11%YoY to Bt1.0bn thanks to the success of its weekly promotional campaigns, leading to SSSG growth of 6%YoY alongside sales network expansion. The GPM shrank 200bps YoY to 54.5% on active promotional campaigns for the apparel business. SG&A to sales was lower to 36.5% from 36.8% due to higher sales. Its NP dropped 6%QoQ. The lower sales (‐12%QoQ on slow momentum of SSSG) with an elevating SG&A to sales ratio (from 32.7% to 36.5%) was offset by the improvement in the GPM (+277bps QoQ due to effective adjustments of promotional campaigns) and shared profit from the JV. DPS of Bt0.40 as expected Its inventory days slid slightly to 366 days from 371 days at yearend 2015 thanks to its successful marketing campaign. With its strong cash flow, MC announced to pay an interim DPS of Bt0.40, representing 81% of its 1H16 results. The XD sign will be posted on August 23. This implies a 2.9% yield for the period. Earnings estimate maintained We expect its creative weekly marketing campaign to help MC boost sales during the low season in 3Q16. Our 2016E NP may have upside risk on the surprisingly better performance of its JV. Its 1H16 results account for 51% of our full‐year estimate currently. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2014 3,470 712 0.89 0.89 ‐15.0% 0.80 4.91 2014 15.96 11.03 2.89 5.6% 18.7% net cash
2015 3,895 732 0.92 0.92 2.9% 0.75 5.09 2015 13.11 9.95 2.36 6.3% 18.3% net cash
2016E 4,454 771 0.96 0.96 5.4% 0.67 5.35 2016E 14.21 11.08 2.56 4.9% 18.5% net cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 4,949 866 1.08 1.08 12.3% 0.76 5.63 2017E 12.66 9.81 2.44 5.5% 19.7% net cash
2018E 5,475 979 1.22 1.22 13.1% 0.86 6.06 2018E 11.19 8.35 2.26 6.3% 20.9% net cash
Figure 1: Earnings review Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn) Fiscal Year‐Ended Dec. Revenue Gross Profit SG&A expenses EBITDA Interest Expense Other income Income tax Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt to equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
2Q15 908 513 334 220 (1) 12 (14) 174 174 0.22 56.5% 24.3% 19.2% 4.09 130.43 0.25 4.97 17.8%
1Q16 1,144 592 374 268 (1) 6 (10) 202 202 0.25 51.8% 23.4% 17.7% 5.46 224.05 0.18 5.35 18.3%
2Q16 1,007 549 367 231 (1) 7 (11) 191 191 0.24 54.5% 23.0% 19.0% 5.99 261.18 0.16 5.19 18.5%
%QoQ ‐12.0% ‐7.3% ‐1.9% ‐13.6% ‐27.7% 20.8% 11.6% ‐5.6% ‐5.6% ‐5.6% 2.8% ‐0.4% 1.3%
‐3.0%
%YoY 10.9% 7.0% 9.7% 5.1% ‐50.6% ‐45.9% ‐17.8% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% ‐2.0% ‐1.3% ‐0.2%
1H16 2,151 1,141 741 499 (2) 12 (22) 393 393 0.49 53.1% 23.2% 18.3% 5.99 239.63 0.16 4.3% 5.19 18.5%
%YoY 19.5% 12.6% 14.5% 9.6% ‐41.8% ‐60.4% 12.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
2016E 4,454 2,340 1,529 945 (4) 46 (60) 771 771 0.96 52.5% 21.2% 17.3% 3.34 221.69 0.29 4.3% 5.35 18.5%
YTD %YoY (% of 16E) 14.3% 48.3% 7.0% 48.8% 5.3% 48.5% 5.5% 52.9% ‐30.9% 44.6% ‐17.2% 26.4% 28.7% 35.9% 5.4% 51.0% 5.4% 51.0% 5.4% 51.0% ‐3.6% ‐1.8% ‐1.5%
5.0%
Source: The Company and KT Zmico Research Figure 2: Operating summary
Source: The Company and KT Zmico Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Figure 3: PER and PBV band
Source: Bloomberg, KT Zmico Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, CI. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALT, EKH, RJH.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.