Medicaid Budget Update
DIVISION OF MEDICAL ASSISTANCE
MEDICAID BUDGET UPDATE Roger Barnes Deputy Director of Finance, DMA September 16, 2016
Medicaid Enrollment by Program Aid Category Current enrollment at July 2016 of 1.908M is 4.0% higher than the one year prior 1.834M at July 2015 (Data in Thousands)
Current year, actual: trend over previous 6 months
PY Actual 2,000
1,834
1,857
1,858
1,800
22
21
21
1,600
406
418
114
1,879
1,893
CY Forecast
1,897
1,904
1,908
1,904
24
23
MQB-E
22
23
23
23
419
421
415
417
418
416
425
Aged/Blind/Disabled
116
117
119
121
123
125
126
122
MCHIP
439
437
439
434
431
427
429
MIC
450
466
471
482
490
489
491
494
497
AFDC Under 21
195
195
197
199
200
200
200
198
199
AFDC Over 21
167
192
196
201
206
211
216
221
210
Other
Jul 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Jul 16
1,400
1,200
1,000
569
800
600
357 400
200
0
Other
AFDC Over 21
AFDC Under 21
MIC
MCHIP
Aged/Blind/Disabled
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
MQB-E
2
Medicaid: State Fiscal Year 2016 Comparison of Actual Results vs. Prior Year Total Medicaid expenditures were $26.7M higher vs. the prior year.
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
3
Medicaid Enrollment – SFY2016 Budget vs. Actual Comparison
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
4
Medicaid: State Fiscal Year 2016 Comparison of Actual Results vs. Budget
The use of appropriations totaled $3.493B, which is $242M or 6.5% favorable to the authorized budget.
($ millions)
VARIANCE (vs. Budget) SFY2016B
Medicaid Expenditures Federal Revenues Other Revenues State Appropriations
$
$
SFY2016A
14,683 $ 9,353 1,595 3,734
$
$
13,771 $ 8,771 1,507 3,493
$
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
% (912) (582) (88)
-6.2% -6.2% -5.5%
(242)
-6.5%
5
Medicaid Enrollment – SFY2017 Budget
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
6
Medicaid: Historical Expenditures and Budget Comparison of SFY2017 Budget vs. SFY2016 Actuals
For SFY17, Medicaid’s expenditures are projected to be 3.7% higher while the use of appropriations is projected to be 3.2% higher.
VARIANCE (SFY2017B vs. SFY2016A)
($ millions) SFY2015A Medicaid Expenditures Federal Revenues Other Revenues State Appropriations
$
$
SFY2016A
13,744 $ 8,752 1,435 3,558 $
SFY2017B
13,771 $ 8,771 1,507 3,493 $
14,282 9,252 1,424 3,606
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
$ $
$
% 511 481 (83) 113
3.7% 5.5% -5.5% 3.2%
7
MEDICAID BUDGET UPDATE Roger Barnes Deputy Director of Finance, DMA September 16, 2016
Medicaid Enrollment by Program Aid Category Current enrollment at July 2016 of 1.908M is 4.0% higher than the one year prior 1.834M at July 2015 (Data in Thousands)
Current year, actual: trend over previous 6 months
PY Actual 2,000
1,834
1,857
1,858
1,800
22
21
21
1,600
406
418
114
1,879
1,893
CY Forecast
1,897
1,904
1,908
1,904
24
23
MQB-E
22
23
23
23
419
421
415
417
418
416
425
Aged/Blind/Disabled
116
117
119
121
123
125
126
122
MCHIP
439
437
439
434
431
427
429
MIC
450
466
471
482
490
489
491
494
497
AFDC Under 21
195
195
197
199
200
200
200
198
199
AFDC Over 21
167
192
196
201
206
211
216
221
210
Other
Jul 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Jul 16
1,400
1,200
1,000
569
800
600
357 400
200
0
Other
AFDC Over 21
AFDC Under 21
MIC
MCHIP
Aged/Blind/Disabled
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
MQB-E
2
Medicaid: State Fiscal Year 2016 Comparison of Actual Results vs. Prior Year Total Medicaid expenditures were $26.7M higher vs. the prior year.
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
3
Medicaid Enrollment – SFY2016 Budget vs. Actual Comparison
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
4
Medicaid: State Fiscal Year 2016 Comparison of Actual Results vs. Budget
The use of appropriations totaled $3.493B, which is $242M or 6.5% favorable to the authorized budget.
($ millions)
VARIANCE (vs. Budget) SFY2016B
Medicaid Expenditures Federal Revenues Other Revenues State Appropriations
$
$
SFY2016A
14,683 $ 9,353 1,595 3,734
$
$
13,771 $ 8,771 1,507 3,493
$
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
% (912) (582) (88)
-6.2% -6.2% -5.5%
(242)
-6.5%
5
Medicaid Enrollment – SFY2017 Budget
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
6
Medicaid: Historical Expenditures and Budget Comparison of SFY2017 Budget vs. SFY2016 Actuals
For SFY17, Medicaid’s expenditures are projected to be 3.7% higher while the use of appropriations is projected to be 3.2% higher.
VARIANCE (SFY2017B vs. SFY2016A)
($ millions) SFY2015A Medicaid Expenditures Federal Revenues Other Revenues State Appropriations
$
$
SFY2016A
13,744 $ 8,752 1,435 3,558 $
SFY2017B
13,771 $ 8,771 1,507 3,493 $
14,282 9,252 1,424 3,606
MCAC Meeting – September 16, 2016 – Prepared by Michael Eliahu, Analyst – DMA FP&A
$ $
$
% 511 481 (83) 113
3.7% 5.5% -5.5% 3.2%
7
