METRO BOSTON HOUSING PROJECTIONS A STRONGER REGION
METRO BOSTON HOUSING PROJECTIONS A STRONGER REGION 10%
Housing Unit Change, 2010–2030 Stronger Region Scenario
7% 11% 20%
10% 35%
Up to 1,000
34%
33%
29%
1,001 – 3,500
30%
31%
23%
17%
15%
21%
13% 35%
31%
20%
35%
10%
17% 30%
32%
2%
10%
13% 16%
43%
13%
37% 14%
4%
33%
33%
27%
23% 6%
13%
13% 11%
7%
8%
10%
14%
6%
22%
14%
15%
15%
14% 24%
14%
15%
14%
8%
6%
10%
18%
11%
16%
Label shows percent change in housing units
13%
21%
13%
23%
23%
22%
14%
19%
7%
17%
13%
12%
33% 10%
4% 8%
70%
11%
19%
18%
16%
10%
13%
6%
11%
27%
34%
7%
16%
13%
21%
22%
25%
12%
22%
16%
21%
25% 19% 10%
13%
11%
29%
6%
19%
7%
3%
37%
12%
28% 5
23%
27%
14%
23%
27%
20% 2.5 2.5
4%
13%
34%
33%
0
8%
33%
14%
26% 12%
24%
14%
14%
15%
21% 28% 18%
19%
15%
33%
14%
15%
10%
10%
9% 11%
6%
10%
18% 2%
18%
14% 8%
16%
17%
7%
23%
23%
12% 46%
12%
32%
21%
30% 44%
35% 24%
10% 5%
23%
43%
17%
17%
21%
13%
21%
20%
8%
21%
23%
23%
3%
31%
More than 7,000
5%
8%
21% 8%
21%
11%
22%
6%
25% 17%
10%
3%
39%
8%
9%
3,501 – 7,000 2%
6%
12% 20%
39%
11%
9%
20%
Over the next 20 years in Metro Boston, the forces of aging, growing diversity, and changing household preference will intersect to create a region that is markedly different than the one we see today.
10%
19%
10%
10 Miles Miles 10
Massachusetts Community Health Information Profile; Census Building Permit Survey
23%
21% 10%
17% 10%
Data Source: Census 1990, 2000, 2010; American Community Survey 2007–2011;
17%
24% 12%
18%
23%
16%
MAPC prepared housing demand projections that can be used by local, regional, and state agencies to set policies and make investments that anticipate the region’s future needs and help achieve shared goals. Our projections include two scenarios for regional growth: a Status Quo scenario based on continuation of existing rates of births, deaths, migration, and housing occupancy; and a Stronger Region scenario that explores how changing trends might result in higher population growth and greater housing demand. The Stronger Region scenario anticipates increased attraction and retention of people within the region, especially young adults; a slightly greater preference for urban living among younger households; and continued declines older cohorts. Along with population growth of approximately 9.6% over the next three decades, the Stronger Region scenario projects that the region will need 395,000 new housing units, approximately 37% higher than Status Quo (288,000 units), and anticipates that some portion of younger households will choose to remain in urban areas rather than decamping to the suburbs. The availability of both rental and ownership multifamily housing is fundamental to attracting and retaining younger residents. Under the Stronger Region scenario, all municipalities are projected to need additional housing units. Most of the increased demand would be for multifamily housing. Single family homes would comprise just
20% of demand in the Inner Core and 40% in Regional Urban Centers (down from 26% and 49% under Status Quo). Multifamily housing would comprise one-third of housing demand in Developing Suburbs and 41% of demand in Maturing Suburbs. This level of demand translates into annual production rates of 10,500 multifamily housing units per year from 2010 to 2020, and approximately 7,800 such units per year from 2020–2030. Economic Development adopted the Stronger Region scenario as the basis for the Commonwealth’s multifamily housing production goal, and is now working to coordinate local and state policies to support the achievement of that goal. These projections will help communities meet their future housing needs in a way that supports a more vibrant, affordable, equitable, and competitive region.
HOUSING UNIT DEMAND BY TYPE AND TENURE 2010–2030 Stronger Region Scenario 120K
Other Multifamily – Rent
100K
Multifamily – Own Single Family
80K
60K
40K
20K
0K INNER CORE
REGIONAL URBAN CENTER
MATURING SUBURBS
DEVELOPING SUBURBS
Housing Unit Change, 2010–2030 Stronger Region Scenario
7% 11% 20%
10% 35%
Up to 1,000
34%
33%
29%
1,001 – 3,500
30%
31%
23%
17%
15%
21%
13% 35%
31%
20%
35%
10%
17% 30%
32%
2%
10%
13% 16%
43%
13%
37% 14%
4%
33%
33%
27%
23% 6%
13%
13% 11%
7%
8%
10%
14%
6%
22%
14%
15%
15%
14% 24%
14%
15%
14%
8%
6%
10%
18%
11%
16%
Label shows percent change in housing units
13%
21%
13%
23%
23%
22%
14%
19%
7%
17%
13%
12%
33% 10%
4% 8%
70%
11%
19%
18%
16%
10%
13%
6%
11%
27%
34%
7%
16%
13%
21%
22%
25%
12%
22%
16%
21%
25% 19% 10%
13%
11%
29%
6%
19%
7%
3%
37%
12%
28% 5
23%
27%
14%
23%
27%
20% 2.5 2.5
4%
13%
34%
33%
0
8%
33%
14%
26% 12%
24%
14%
14%
15%
21% 28% 18%
19%
15%
33%
14%
15%
10%
10%
9% 11%
6%
10%
18% 2%
18%
14% 8%
16%
17%
7%
23%
23%
12% 46%
12%
32%
21%
30% 44%
35% 24%
10% 5%
23%
43%
17%
17%
21%
13%
21%
20%
8%
21%
23%
23%
3%
31%
More than 7,000
5%
8%
21% 8%
21%
11%
22%
6%
25% 17%
10%
3%
39%
8%
9%
3,501 – 7,000 2%
6%
12% 20%
39%
11%
9%
20%
Over the next 20 years in Metro Boston, the forces of aging, growing diversity, and changing household preference will intersect to create a region that is markedly different than the one we see today.
10%
19%
10%
10 Miles Miles 10
Massachusetts Community Health Information Profile; Census Building Permit Survey
23%
21% 10%
17% 10%
Data Source: Census 1990, 2000, 2010; American Community Survey 2007–2011;
17%
24% 12%
18%
23%
16%
MAPC prepared housing demand projections that can be used by local, regional, and state agencies to set policies and make investments that anticipate the region’s future needs and help achieve shared goals. Our projections include two scenarios for regional growth: a Status Quo scenario based on continuation of existing rates of births, deaths, migration, and housing occupancy; and a Stronger Region scenario that explores how changing trends might result in higher population growth and greater housing demand. The Stronger Region scenario anticipates increased attraction and retention of people within the region, especially young adults; a slightly greater preference for urban living among younger households; and continued declines older cohorts. Along with population growth of approximately 9.6% over the next three decades, the Stronger Region scenario projects that the region will need 395,000 new housing units, approximately 37% higher than Status Quo (288,000 units), and anticipates that some portion of younger households will choose to remain in urban areas rather than decamping to the suburbs. The availability of both rental and ownership multifamily housing is fundamental to attracting and retaining younger residents. Under the Stronger Region scenario, all municipalities are projected to need additional housing units. Most of the increased demand would be for multifamily housing. Single family homes would comprise just
20% of demand in the Inner Core and 40% in Regional Urban Centers (down from 26% and 49% under Status Quo). Multifamily housing would comprise one-third of housing demand in Developing Suburbs and 41% of demand in Maturing Suburbs. This level of demand translates into annual production rates of 10,500 multifamily housing units per year from 2010 to 2020, and approximately 7,800 such units per year from 2020–2030. Economic Development adopted the Stronger Region scenario as the basis for the Commonwealth’s multifamily housing production goal, and is now working to coordinate local and state policies to support the achievement of that goal. These projections will help communities meet their future housing needs in a way that supports a more vibrant, affordable, equitable, and competitive region.
HOUSING UNIT DEMAND BY TYPE AND TENURE 2010–2030 Stronger Region Scenario 120K
Other Multifamily – Rent
100K
Multifamily – Own Single Family
80K
60K
40K
20K
0K INNER CORE
REGIONAL URBAN CENTER
MATURING SUBURBS
DEVELOPING SUBURBS
