Mexican sector, deepwater GoM
E&P2.0
39TH NIGERIA ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION Dr. Helge Hove Haldorsen, SPE President 2015 Opening Ceremony, August 4, 2015, Eko Hotel & Suites, LAGOS, Nigeria
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
COMBINED CYCLE GAS TURBINE POWER PLANT Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
You all have ‘CHANGING NIGERIA THE WORLD FOR THE BETTER’ in your job descriptions ! Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
5 STAR
• Volunteered XXL • Served XXL • Given back XXL A Force for good SPE• GENERALS
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
A SPECIAL THANKS TO ALL THE 5 STAR SPE GENERALS IN THE ROOM
NIGERIA 1 Source: New York
FLARING
• Much better use of more of the gas (NGMP) • • • • • • •
Leverage gas for economic growth Power generation incl local mini-solutions Transport sector, CNG In coop with Nigeria’s renewable push (REMP) Industrial use (downstream) Home use Export: LNG, Pipelines
• Better environmental performance • A source of employment and local/federal
0
income leading to nigerianbenefits3600
On February 10, 2013, in the final against Burkina Faso, Sunday Mba scored the2013, winning C11 goal to hand Nigeria their third Africa Cup Times, June 1-2, of Nations title
• • • •
Flaring not allowed by law IOR with gas injection CO2 tax: $70-80/ton emitted Export: 10 billion cuft/d
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
IF YOU WANT TO GO QUICKLY, GO ALONE. IF YOU WANT TO GO FAR, GO TOGETHER AFRICAN PROVERB Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
OUTLINE • • • • • •
Source:Stamp issued on October 27, 1962 to
MANDELA QUOTE LIKE! OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY E&P 2015: A RHAPSODY IN C E&P2.0 REFLEXIONES FINALES
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, commemorate the Lagos International trade fair C11
August 4, 1962 ‘ It always seems Nelson Mandela impossible until captured by it’s done ’’ police Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
WE’RE TEAMING UP 2015: Global Investment > ~$1 Trillion
THE ENERGY 2015: DrillWE PRODUCE 80,000 wells • Fuels Human Progress • Raises Living Standards
143,000 members in ~ 93 million 141 countries on a mission to share
barrels per day
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
!
~ 350 billion cuft per day
60 LAGOS
MINUTES
10,000 IN JUST 50 DAYS: 12 MILL NEW ENERGY CUSTOMERS
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Trademark of CBS News
TODAY 2040
THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS WITH PURCHASING POWER GROWS BY
9.0 7.3
3 BILLION BY 2030
2040 Source: https://www.populationinstitute.org/programs/gpso/gpso/ Sources: UN, ExxonMobil
Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil
GLOBAL MIX TOIN2040 GAS & OILENERGY STILL ‘KINGS’ 2040 Solar + Wind + Biofuel: ~5% Of The Global Energy Mix In 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
-Nuclear -Hydro
-Gas
CO2
-Oil
< +2degC 1800
1850
1900
? -Coal 1950
SOURCES: ExxonMobil The Outlook For Energy – A View To 2040, IEA, IPCC
2000
-Biomass
2040
TODAY: 1-2 MILL BOEPD TOO MUCH
5
93 GLOBAL OIL PROD MILLION BOPD
89
2015
2016
85 81
2017
2018
77
2019
73
2020
A VERY TALL 20 ORDER To add 25 mill boepd of new oil production (= 2.5 X SA’s current oil production) in just 5 years
BRENT OIL PRICE
4 years of sailing along with little cost & efficiency focus
$100-110
$50-60
LET’S TAKE THE PULSE OF E&P RIGHT NOW Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
E&P 2015 IS
‘ A RHAPSODY IN C ’ • • • • • • •
COSTS - TOO HIGH COMPLEXITY OF DEVELOPMENTS - UP COMPETITIVENESS - ERODING COMMUNITIES - EXPECT MORE CLIMATE CHANGE - A KEY ISSUE CRASHING OIL PRICE - HERE TO STAY? CASH FLOW AFTER DIVIDEND - NEGATIVE?
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
E&P’s return on capital is not good enough Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
$100
$100/BBL CAVALRY
COMING TO THE RESCUE?
MAKE E&P PROFITABLE AGAIN AT 60-70$/BBL E&P EDITION
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
E&P Must Navigate
SUCCESS IN 4E
4E
• Energy • Economics • Environmental footprint • Education
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
EXPLORATION
APPRAISAL
3E FIELD DEV.
OIL & GAS ‘MANUFACTURING’ MINDSET
COLLABORATION2.0
DRILLING AUTOMATION
$: EXP, R&D & M&A
BIG DATA & THE GREAT! INDUSTRIAL INTERNETSHARE OF EVERYTHING PRICE
TSR (SHARE+DIV)
SMARTER
NEW BUSINESS MODELS
VALUE CREATION
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
MORE
RE-BALANCE OF SUSTAINABLE GOV TAKE & INV TAKE
OPERATE & PROD
THE BEST COLLABORATORS Survival of =
the Fittest !
THE FITTEST Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
=
HERBERT SPENCER COLLABORATION
WIN the fittest ! WIN
THE BEST COLLABORATORS Survival of = THE FITTEST
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
1971-2015 INTEL CHIP COMPARIZON GORDON E. MOORE
MOOR’S LAW
Doubling of Computer Power Every 2 years (Prediction 1965)
• 3,500 X more performance • 90,000 X more energy efficient • 60,0000 X lower cost
1971-2015
IF A WOLKSWAGEN BEETLE HAD THE SAME IMPROVEMENTS
1971-2015 E&P EFFICIENCY & COST
• 300,000 miles per hour • 2 million miles per gallon • 4 cents per gallon
• Time to drill a well • Well cost • Reservoir area contacted per well • Well performance • F&D costs • Recovery factors
Source: Thomas L Friedman, NY Times, May 13, 2015: Moore’s Law Turns 50
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
E&P2.0 SPE2.0 Quickly out to INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENT OF 143,000 SPE EVERYTHING Members Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
&
Quickly out to DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY 143,000 SPE & BUS. MODELS Members
SPE: 143,000 MEMBERS AND STAFF ON A MISSION TO SHARE
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
SPE VISION
SPE MISSION
143,000 Enable the global oil and To collect, disseminate, ON A MISSION TO SHARE gas E&P industry to and exchange technical share technical knowledge and to provide SPE2.0= knowledge needed to opportunities for More meet the world’s energy professionals to enhance Personalized needs in a safe and their technical and environmentally professional competence responsible manner
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
SPE = 143,000 Energy Professionals On A Mission To Share • Journals
143,000 MEMBERS
•
Meetings
•
Distinguished Lecturers
•
Workshops
•
Forums
•
Webinars
•
Training
•
Events per year:
X 150 Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Robert Kennedy
THE FUTURE ‘ The future is not a gift: It is an achievement. Every generation helps make its own future ‘
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
With the amazing YPs I have met here, these are all challenges with solutions ! Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
When Disturb usdreams Lord Whenour we arrive Disturb us Lord have come true safely because when we are to have darewe more because have we sailed too pleased boldly, to venture dreamed too too close to with ourselves on wider seas little shore
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Sir Francis Drake
FOR ALL YOU DO, THIS COSTUS IS FOR YOU
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
• • • • Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
E SE PUPO NAGODE DALU THANK YOU
39TH NIGERIA ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION Dr. Helge Hove Haldorsen, SPE President 2015 Opening Ceremony, August 4, 2015, Eko Hotel & Suites, LAGOS, Nigeria
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
COMBINED CYCLE GAS TURBINE POWER PLANT Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
You all have ‘CHANGING NIGERIA THE WORLD FOR THE BETTER’ in your job descriptions ! Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
5 STAR
• Volunteered XXL • Served XXL • Given back XXL A Force for good SPE• GENERALS
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
A SPECIAL THANKS TO ALL THE 5 STAR SPE GENERALS IN THE ROOM
NIGERIA 1 Source: New York
FLARING
• Much better use of more of the gas (NGMP) • • • • • • •
Leverage gas for economic growth Power generation incl local mini-solutions Transport sector, CNG In coop with Nigeria’s renewable push (REMP) Industrial use (downstream) Home use Export: LNG, Pipelines
• Better environmental performance • A source of employment and local/federal
0
income leading to nigerianbenefits3600
On February 10, 2013, in the final against Burkina Faso, Sunday Mba scored the2013, winning C11 goal to hand Nigeria their third Africa Cup Times, June 1-2, of Nations title
• • • •
Flaring not allowed by law IOR with gas injection CO2 tax: $70-80/ton emitted Export: 10 billion cuft/d
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
IF YOU WANT TO GO QUICKLY, GO ALONE. IF YOU WANT TO GO FAR, GO TOGETHER AFRICAN PROVERB Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
OUTLINE • • • • • •
Source:Stamp issued on October 27, 1962 to
MANDELA QUOTE LIKE! OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY E&P 2015: A RHAPSODY IN C E&P2.0 REFLEXIONES FINALES
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, commemorate the Lagos International trade fair C11
August 4, 1962 ‘ It always seems Nelson Mandela impossible until captured by it’s done ’’ police Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
WE’RE TEAMING UP 2015: Global Investment > ~$1 Trillion
THE ENERGY 2015: DrillWE PRODUCE 80,000 wells • Fuels Human Progress • Raises Living Standards
143,000 members in ~ 93 million 141 countries on a mission to share
barrels per day
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
!
~ 350 billion cuft per day
60 LAGOS
MINUTES
10,000 IN JUST 50 DAYS: 12 MILL NEW ENERGY CUSTOMERS
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Trademark of CBS News
TODAY 2040
THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS WITH PURCHASING POWER GROWS BY
9.0 7.3
3 BILLION BY 2030
2040 Source: https://www.populationinstitute.org/programs/gpso/gpso/ Sources: UN, ExxonMobil
Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil
GLOBAL MIX TOIN2040 GAS & OILENERGY STILL ‘KINGS’ 2040 Solar + Wind + Biofuel: ~5% Of The Global Energy Mix In 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
-Nuclear -Hydro
-Gas
CO2
-Oil
< +2degC 1800
1850
1900
? -Coal 1950
SOURCES: ExxonMobil The Outlook For Energy – A View To 2040, IEA, IPCC
2000
-Biomass
2040
TODAY: 1-2 MILL BOEPD TOO MUCH
5
93 GLOBAL OIL PROD MILLION BOPD
89
2015
2016
85 81
2017
2018
77
2019
73
2020
A VERY TALL 20 ORDER To add 25 mill boepd of new oil production (= 2.5 X SA’s current oil production) in just 5 years
BRENT OIL PRICE
4 years of sailing along with little cost & efficiency focus
$100-110
$50-60
LET’S TAKE THE PULSE OF E&P RIGHT NOW Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
E&P 2015 IS
‘ A RHAPSODY IN C ’ • • • • • • •
COSTS - TOO HIGH COMPLEXITY OF DEVELOPMENTS - UP COMPETITIVENESS - ERODING COMMUNITIES - EXPECT MORE CLIMATE CHANGE - A KEY ISSUE CRASHING OIL PRICE - HERE TO STAY? CASH FLOW AFTER DIVIDEND - NEGATIVE?
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
E&P’s return on capital is not good enough Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
$100
$100/BBL CAVALRY
COMING TO THE RESCUE?
MAKE E&P PROFITABLE AGAIN AT 60-70$/BBL E&P EDITION
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
E&P Must Navigate
SUCCESS IN 4E
4E
• Energy • Economics • Environmental footprint • Education
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
EXPLORATION
APPRAISAL
3E FIELD DEV.
OIL & GAS ‘MANUFACTURING’ MINDSET
COLLABORATION2.0
DRILLING AUTOMATION
$: EXP, R&D & M&A
BIG DATA & THE GREAT! INDUSTRIAL INTERNETSHARE OF EVERYTHING PRICE
TSR (SHARE+DIV)
SMARTER
NEW BUSINESS MODELS
VALUE CREATION
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
MORE
RE-BALANCE OF SUSTAINABLE GOV TAKE & INV TAKE
OPERATE & PROD
THE BEST COLLABORATORS Survival of =
the Fittest !
THE FITTEST Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
=
HERBERT SPENCER COLLABORATION
WIN the fittest ! WIN
THE BEST COLLABORATORS Survival of = THE FITTEST
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
1971-2015 INTEL CHIP COMPARIZON GORDON E. MOORE
MOOR’S LAW
Doubling of Computer Power Every 2 years (Prediction 1965)
• 3,500 X more performance • 90,000 X more energy efficient • 60,0000 X lower cost
1971-2015
IF A WOLKSWAGEN BEETLE HAD THE SAME IMPROVEMENTS
1971-2015 E&P EFFICIENCY & COST
• 300,000 miles per hour • 2 million miles per gallon • 4 cents per gallon
• Time to drill a well • Well cost • Reservoir area contacted per well • Well performance • F&D costs • Recovery factors
Source: Thomas L Friedman, NY Times, May 13, 2015: Moore’s Law Turns 50
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
E&P2.0 SPE2.0 Quickly out to INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENT OF 143,000 SPE EVERYTHING Members Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
&
Quickly out to DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY 143,000 SPE & BUS. MODELS Members
SPE: 143,000 MEMBERS AND STAFF ON A MISSION TO SHARE
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
SPE VISION
SPE MISSION
143,000 Enable the global oil and To collect, disseminate, ON A MISSION TO SHARE gas E&P industry to and exchange technical share technical knowledge and to provide SPE2.0= knowledge needed to opportunities for More meet the world’s energy professionals to enhance Personalized needs in a safe and their technical and environmentally professional competence responsible manner
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
SPE = 143,000 Energy Professionals On A Mission To Share • Journals
143,000 MEMBERS
•
Meetings
•
Distinguished Lecturers
•
Workshops
•
Forums
•
Webinars
•
Training
•
Events per year:
X 150 Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Robert Kennedy
THE FUTURE ‘ The future is not a gift: It is an achievement. Every generation helps make its own future ‘
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
With the amazing YPs I have met here, these are all challenges with solutions ! Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
When Disturb usdreams Lord Whenour we arrive Disturb us Lord have come true safely because when we are to have darewe more because have we sailed too pleased boldly, to venture dreamed too too close to with ourselves on wider seas little shore
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
Sir Francis Drake
FOR ALL YOU DO, THIS COSTUS IS FOR YOU
Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
• • • • Source: New York Times, June 1-2, 2013, C11
E SE PUPO NAGODE DALU THANK YOU
