Mexico and Brazil renewable energy markets and policies - key trends
Global Best Practice in Renewable Energy Policy Making Experts Meeting Paris, France. 29 June 2007
Mexico and Brazil: Renewable Energy Markets and Policies Jorge M Huacuz & Consuelo Medrano Non-Conventional Energy Unit Electrical Research Institute (IIE) Cuernavaca, México
Focus of the Study
Mexico: Land: 1’964,375 km2 Population: 103 million GDP: 840 billion US$ Total Energy Use: 7,365 PJ Electric capacity: 53,858 MW
Brazil: Land: 8’514,877 km2 Population: 186.8 million GDP: 1,067 billion US$ Total Energy Use: 8,202 PJ Electric capacity: 93,158 MW
Contribution of Renewables to Total Energy Supply Primary energy in Mexico 2.84%
Brazil: Primary Energy Sources
0.001% 0.75%
1.20%
2.90% Coal
1.06% 2.52% 2.20%
19.31%
12.40%
38.80%
Oil
14.40%
Other hydrocarbon
Firewood
Natural gas 68.26%
Sugar cane
Nuclear
Hydro
hydro
14.60%
Geothermal
1.87%
Nuclear
5.80% 1.50%
9.50%
Coal
Wind Source: Balance Nacional de Energía 2005. Secretaría de Energía, 2006
Cane bagasse firewood
Natural Gas
300.00
250.00
Share of renewables in TPES
250.00
TPES (Mtoe)
200.00
Energy (Mtoe)
Energy (Mtoe)
Other renewables
Primary Energy Supply Brazil
Primary Energy Supply Mexico TPES (Mtoe)
Oil
Source: Balanco Energético Nacional, 2007 Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
200.00
150.00
Share of renewables in TPES
150.00
100.00
100.00 50.00
50.00 0.00
Año
Año1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Balance Nacional de Energía 2005. Secretaría de Energía, 2006
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source: Brazilizn Energy Balance, 2006, Empresa De Pesquisa Energetica, Ministerio de Minas e Energia
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Contribution of Renewables to Power Generating Capacity Brazil: Installed Generating Capacity
Mexico: Installed Generating Capacity 90,000 40,000.0 35,000.0
Conventional
80,000 70,000
Renewable
30,000.0 20,000.0 15,000.0 10,000.0
20,000 10,000 0
5,000.0
Source: Balance Nacional de Energía 2005. Secretaría de Energía, 2006
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06
0.0
12000
Renewable
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
MW
MW
25,000.0
Conventional
Source: Brazilian Energy balance, 2006; Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Ministerio de Minas e Energia
Renewable Electricicity Generating Capacity Mexico
Installed electricicity capacity Brazil 80,000 70,000
10000 60,000 50,000
Hydro Wind Solar PV
6000
Geothermal
MW
MW
8000
40,000 30,000
Biomass excl. CHP (Biogas)
4000
Biomass CHP
20,000 10,000
2000
Año 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
Año
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
http://www.sener.gob.mx http://sie.energia.gob.mx/sie/bdiController?action=login
Hydro
Wind, Solar PV, Solar Thermal, Geothermal, Biomass excl. CHP, Biomass CHP,Tide, Wave, Ocean
Source: Brazilian Energy Balance, 2006; Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Ministerio de Minas e Energia
Electricity from Renewables and Associated Costs Mexico: Electricity Generation from Renewables
Brazil: Electricity Generation from Renewables
35,000
400,000 30,000
Hydro
Electricity Generation (GWh)
Electricity Generation(GWh)
350,000 25,000
20,000
15,000
Hydro
Wind
Solar PV
Geothermal
Biomass excl. CHP
Biomass CHP*
10,000
5,000
Biomass excl. CHP
300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
-Añ o
Año 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: Brazilian Energy Balance, 2006; Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Ministerio de Minas e Energia
http://sie.energia.gob.mx/sie/bdiController?action=login
Production Costs from Renewable Energy Mexico
0.3
0.6
0.25
0.5
Minimun cost
Maximun cost 0.2
U S D $ /k W h
0.4
USD/kWh
Range of production costs Brazil
0.3
0.2
Minimun cost
Maximun cost
Renewable technology
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0 Hydro
Wind
Solar PV
Geothermal
Solid Biomass CHP
Source: Renewable Energies for Sustainable Development in Mexico, 2006, Energy Secretariat (SENER), México, 2006
Biogas
0 Hydro
Wind
Solar PV
Source: National Energy Plan 2030; Hidroelectric Generation; Ministry of Mines and Energy; Brasília, April 27, 2006
Solar Thermal
Solid Biomass excl. CHP
Mexico: Renewable Energy to the Year 2030 Resource WEO 2004 (IEA/OCDE)
Hydro
Biomass
Wind
Minihydro
Solar
Simplified method (2030) High Growth Rate (GDP 4.5%)
Low Growth Rate (GDP 2.5%)
2010
2020
2030
GDP 4.5%
GDP 2.5%
HP
GWh
43,000
47,000
47,000
47,196
35,700
56,449
56,449
40,650
40,650
MW
12,000
14,000
14,000
16,110
16,110
11,601
11,601
GWh
2,000
6,000
15,000
21,192
14,156
20,323
15,319
1,000
2,000
3,024
2,020
2,900
2,186
MW Geothermal
LEAP System 2030
LP
HP
LP
GWh
9,000
11,000
15,000
18,779
14,155
16,947
13,574
MW
1,000
2,000
3,000
2,522
1,901
2,276
1,823
GWh
2,000
4,000
8,000
28,226
21,192
25,432
20,328
MW
1,000
2,000
3,000
9,206
6,912
8,295
6,630
GWh
14,159
7,030
10,210
5,105
MW
4,618
2,293
3,330
1,665
3,000
5,684
2,793
4,047
2,024
2,000
2,163
1,063
1,540
770
GWh MW
1,000
31,050
21,930
* CIE (Centro de Investigación de Energía); Includes: Solar PV and solar thermal Source: Prospective on the utilization of renewable energy in Mexico: A vision to the year 2030. Annex 7
CIE* 2025 PIB 4.5%
24,790
4,300
4,400
12,765
6784*
Mexico: Projections of Installed Capacity
Po w er (M W )
15000 10000 5000 0 2015
Hydro
Wind
Geothermal
13428
592.2
1117.5
Source: Prospective of the Electric Power Sector (in Spanish) 2006-2015, Energy Secretariat, México, 2006
Brazil: Projections of Installed Capacity 200,000
MW
150,000
Renewable technology
100,000 50,000 Hydro
Small hydro
Wind**
Biomass excl. CHP*
Biomass (residuos)
2015
99,000
2,330
1,382
1,821
2020
116,100
3,330
2,282
2,971
200
2025
137,400
5,330
3,482
4,521
650
2030
156,300
8,330
4,682
6,571
1300
Source: National Energy Plan 2030, Strategy to expland the supply; Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brasilia, 2007
Brazil: Renewable Electricity to the year 2030 Unit: MW cumulative
2020
2025
99,000
116,100
137,400
156,300
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2,330
3,330
5,330
8,330
1,382
2,282
3,482
4,682
Solar PV
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Solar Thermal
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Geothermal
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1,821
2,971
4,521
6,571
200
650
1300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Hydro of which: Pumped Storage Small hydro Wind
Biomass excl. CHP
2015
Biomass (solid residues) Tide, Wave, Ocean
N/A
Source: National Energy Plan 2030, Strategy to expland the supply; Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brasilia, 2007
2030
Brazil: Biofuels to the year 2030 Año
Ethanol (103 m3)
2010
23,890
2015
36,000
2020
51,710
2025
57,980
2030
66,570
Biodiesel (103 m3) 3,000 4,800 11,745
Source: National Energy Plan 2030, Strategy to expland the supply; Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brasilia, 2007
What Makes the Difference? The Institutional Framework Mexico Energy Secretariat
Brazil Ministry of Mines & Energy
¾ Electric companies (CFE, LFC) ¾ Energy Regulatory Commission ¾ Energy Conservation Commission ¾ Electrical Research Institute
Social Development Secretariat Agriculture Secretariat
¾ Petroleum Secretariat 9 PETROBRAS •
Dept. Renewable Fuels
¾ ELECTROBRAS 9 CEPEL
¾ Energy Research Enterprise ¾ National Council for Energy Policy
Ministry of Agriculture National Agency for Electric Energy National Petroleum Agency
Color code: Red: institutions of origin for laws, programs, regulations and norms; Green: implementing and supporting agencies
What Makes the Difference? The Legal and Regulatory Framework Mexico Environmental Investment Facility (2004) Grid interconnection contract for renewable energy (2004) Program for Promotion of solar water heaters (2007) The Biofuels Law (2007) Net Metering for small PV systems (upcoming) Bill to foster renewable energy (in approval process)
Brazil PROALCOHOL (1975) Program for Energy Development in States and Municipalities (1994) Fuel Consumption Account (1999) Distributed Generation Program (2000) Small Hydroelectric Program (2001) Pró-Eólica (2001) Program of Incentives for Alternative Sources (2002) Program Light for All (2004) Implementation of biodiesl production (2004) “Social Fuels” (2005)
Electrical Research Institute
www.iie.org.mx
Thank you..... you..... Thank
Mexico and Brazil: Renewable Energy Markets and Policies Jorge M Huacuz & Consuelo Medrano Non-Conventional Energy Unit Electrical Research Institute (IIE) Cuernavaca, México
Focus of the Study
Mexico: Land: 1’964,375 km2 Population: 103 million GDP: 840 billion US$ Total Energy Use: 7,365 PJ Electric capacity: 53,858 MW
Brazil: Land: 8’514,877 km2 Population: 186.8 million GDP: 1,067 billion US$ Total Energy Use: 8,202 PJ Electric capacity: 93,158 MW
Contribution of Renewables to Total Energy Supply Primary energy in Mexico 2.84%
Brazil: Primary Energy Sources
0.001% 0.75%
1.20%
2.90% Coal
1.06% 2.52% 2.20%
19.31%
12.40%
38.80%
Oil
14.40%
Other hydrocarbon
Firewood
Natural gas 68.26%
Sugar cane
Nuclear
Hydro
hydro
14.60%
Geothermal
1.87%
Nuclear
5.80% 1.50%
9.50%
Coal
Wind Source: Balance Nacional de Energía 2005. Secretaría de Energía, 2006
Cane bagasse firewood
Natural Gas
300.00
250.00
Share of renewables in TPES
250.00
TPES (Mtoe)
200.00
Energy (Mtoe)
Energy (Mtoe)
Other renewables
Primary Energy Supply Brazil
Primary Energy Supply Mexico TPES (Mtoe)
Oil
Source: Balanco Energético Nacional, 2007 Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
200.00
150.00
Share of renewables in TPES
150.00
100.00
100.00 50.00
50.00 0.00
Año
Año1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Balance Nacional de Energía 2005. Secretaría de Energía, 2006
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source: Brazilizn Energy Balance, 2006, Empresa De Pesquisa Energetica, Ministerio de Minas e Energia
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Contribution of Renewables to Power Generating Capacity Brazil: Installed Generating Capacity
Mexico: Installed Generating Capacity 90,000 40,000.0 35,000.0
Conventional
80,000 70,000
Renewable
30,000.0 20,000.0 15,000.0 10,000.0
20,000 10,000 0
5,000.0
Source: Balance Nacional de Energía 2005. Secretaría de Energía, 2006
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06
0.0
12000
Renewable
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000
MW
MW
25,000.0
Conventional
Source: Brazilian Energy balance, 2006; Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Ministerio de Minas e Energia
Renewable Electricicity Generating Capacity Mexico
Installed electricicity capacity Brazil 80,000 70,000
10000 60,000 50,000
Hydro Wind Solar PV
6000
Geothermal
MW
MW
8000
40,000 30,000
Biomass excl. CHP (Biogas)
4000
Biomass CHP
20,000 10,000
2000
Año 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
Año
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
http://www.sener.gob.mx http://sie.energia.gob.mx/sie/bdiController?action=login
Hydro
Wind, Solar PV, Solar Thermal, Geothermal, Biomass excl. CHP, Biomass CHP,Tide, Wave, Ocean
Source: Brazilian Energy Balance, 2006; Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Ministerio de Minas e Energia
Electricity from Renewables and Associated Costs Mexico: Electricity Generation from Renewables
Brazil: Electricity Generation from Renewables
35,000
400,000 30,000
Hydro
Electricity Generation (GWh)
Electricity Generation(GWh)
350,000 25,000
20,000
15,000
Hydro
Wind
Solar PV
Geothermal
Biomass excl. CHP
Biomass CHP*
10,000
5,000
Biomass excl. CHP
300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
-Añ o
Año 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: Brazilian Energy Balance, 2006; Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Ministerio de Minas e Energia
http://sie.energia.gob.mx/sie/bdiController?action=login
Production Costs from Renewable Energy Mexico
0.3
0.6
0.25
0.5
Minimun cost
Maximun cost 0.2
U S D $ /k W h
0.4
USD/kWh
Range of production costs Brazil
0.3
0.2
Minimun cost
Maximun cost
Renewable technology
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0 Hydro
Wind
Solar PV
Geothermal
Solid Biomass CHP
Source: Renewable Energies for Sustainable Development in Mexico, 2006, Energy Secretariat (SENER), México, 2006
Biogas
0 Hydro
Wind
Solar PV
Source: National Energy Plan 2030; Hidroelectric Generation; Ministry of Mines and Energy; Brasília, April 27, 2006
Solar Thermal
Solid Biomass excl. CHP
Mexico: Renewable Energy to the Year 2030 Resource WEO 2004 (IEA/OCDE)
Hydro
Biomass
Wind
Minihydro
Solar
Simplified method (2030) High Growth Rate (GDP 4.5%)
Low Growth Rate (GDP 2.5%)
2010
2020
2030
GDP 4.5%
GDP 2.5%
HP
GWh
43,000
47,000
47,000
47,196
35,700
56,449
56,449
40,650
40,650
MW
12,000
14,000
14,000
16,110
16,110
11,601
11,601
GWh
2,000
6,000
15,000
21,192
14,156
20,323
15,319
1,000
2,000
3,024
2,020
2,900
2,186
MW Geothermal
LEAP System 2030
LP
HP
LP
GWh
9,000
11,000
15,000
18,779
14,155
16,947
13,574
MW
1,000
2,000
3,000
2,522
1,901
2,276
1,823
GWh
2,000
4,000
8,000
28,226
21,192
25,432
20,328
MW
1,000
2,000
3,000
9,206
6,912
8,295
6,630
GWh
14,159
7,030
10,210
5,105
MW
4,618
2,293
3,330
1,665
3,000
5,684
2,793
4,047
2,024
2,000
2,163
1,063
1,540
770
GWh MW
1,000
31,050
21,930
* CIE (Centro de Investigación de Energía); Includes: Solar PV and solar thermal Source: Prospective on the utilization of renewable energy in Mexico: A vision to the year 2030. Annex 7
CIE* 2025 PIB 4.5%
24,790
4,300
4,400
12,765
6784*
Mexico: Projections of Installed Capacity
Po w er (M W )
15000 10000 5000 0 2015
Hydro
Wind
Geothermal
13428
592.2
1117.5
Source: Prospective of the Electric Power Sector (in Spanish) 2006-2015, Energy Secretariat, México, 2006
Brazil: Projections of Installed Capacity 200,000
MW
150,000
Renewable technology
100,000 50,000 Hydro
Small hydro
Wind**
Biomass excl. CHP*
Biomass (residuos)
2015
99,000
2,330
1,382
1,821
2020
116,100
3,330
2,282
2,971
200
2025
137,400
5,330
3,482
4,521
650
2030
156,300
8,330
4,682
6,571
1300
Source: National Energy Plan 2030, Strategy to expland the supply; Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brasilia, 2007
Brazil: Renewable Electricity to the year 2030 Unit: MW cumulative
2020
2025
99,000
116,100
137,400
156,300
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2,330
3,330
5,330
8,330
1,382
2,282
3,482
4,682
Solar PV
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Solar Thermal
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Geothermal
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1,821
2,971
4,521
6,571
200
650
1300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Hydro of which: Pumped Storage Small hydro Wind
Biomass excl. CHP
2015
Biomass (solid residues) Tide, Wave, Ocean
N/A
Source: National Energy Plan 2030, Strategy to expland the supply; Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brasilia, 2007
2030
Brazil: Biofuels to the year 2030 Año
Ethanol (103 m3)
2010
23,890
2015
36,000
2020
51,710
2025
57,980
2030
66,570
Biodiesel (103 m3) 3,000 4,800 11,745
Source: National Energy Plan 2030, Strategy to expland the supply; Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brasilia, 2007
What Makes the Difference? The Institutional Framework Mexico Energy Secretariat
Brazil Ministry of Mines & Energy
¾ Electric companies (CFE, LFC) ¾ Energy Regulatory Commission ¾ Energy Conservation Commission ¾ Electrical Research Institute
Social Development Secretariat Agriculture Secretariat
¾ Petroleum Secretariat 9 PETROBRAS •
Dept. Renewable Fuels
¾ ELECTROBRAS 9 CEPEL
¾ Energy Research Enterprise ¾ National Council for Energy Policy
Ministry of Agriculture National Agency for Electric Energy National Petroleum Agency
Color code: Red: institutions of origin for laws, programs, regulations and norms; Green: implementing and supporting agencies
What Makes the Difference? The Legal and Regulatory Framework Mexico Environmental Investment Facility (2004) Grid interconnection contract for renewable energy (2004) Program for Promotion of solar water heaters (2007) The Biofuels Law (2007) Net Metering for small PV systems (upcoming) Bill to foster renewable energy (in approval process)
Brazil PROALCOHOL (1975) Program for Energy Development in States and Municipalities (1994) Fuel Consumption Account (1999) Distributed Generation Program (2000) Small Hydroelectric Program (2001) Pró-Eólica (2001) Program of Incentives for Alternative Sources (2002) Program Light for All (2004) Implementation of biodiesl production (2004) “Social Fuels” (2005)
Electrical Research Institute
www.iie.org.mx
Thank you..... you..... Thank
