Mobile Capacity Growth - Information Technology and Innovation ...

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Mobile Capacity Growth May 2011 Rasika Abeysinghe PhD Director, Network Solutions COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

BANDWIDTH NEEDS TODAY Forecast consumption by device type

Typical Monthly Consumption

Worldwide Aggregate Mobile Traffic 400-800 MB

2-4 GB

Pbytes/month 7,000

50-185 MB

6,000

20-80 MB

5,000 4,000

Devices In Use

Bandwidth Utilization 3,000

30x growth over 5 years!

2,000 1,000 0

Android Blackberry Other

2010

iPhone Feature Phone

2011

Dongle/tablets

2012

2013

2014

Smartphones

Source: Alcatel-Lucent measurements using 9900 WNG within live networks and Bell Labs analysis 2 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

2015 Feature phones

BANDWIDTH NEEDS TOMORROW More tablets

Forecast consumption by device type Worldwide Aggregate Mobile Traffic

~80% smartphone in the US

Pbytes/month 7,000 6,000

100b App downloads globally

5,000 4,000 3,000

30x growth over 5 years!

3m First Responders in the US

2,000 1,000 0 2010

2011

Dongle/tablets

2012

Personal and Corporate Cloud Computing

2013

Smartphones

2014

615m Machine to Machine devices

2015 Feature phones

Source: Alcatel-Lucent measurements using 9900 WNG within live networks and Bell Labs analysis 3 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Limitations of Physics and Economics Shannon bound Shannon bound Shannon bound Shannon bound with with 3dB 3dB offset margin HSDPA HSDPA EV-DO EV-DO OFDM 802.16

5 4

Inaccessible Region

3 2

technology today

1 0 -15

•There is a limit to the amount of information that can be compressed into a given Practical bandwidth (Shannon bound) •3G and 4G technologies are Limit near that limit Cellular

Loaded macrocellular environment 50 -10

-5

0 5 10 15 Required Signal to Noise Ratio (dB)

45

Mobile Data Revenue and Cost 20

Loss

40

•Techniques such as cell splitting, small cells can help with reusing spectrum to satisfy capacity demand •However, this increases the cost of capacity •Also, increasing frequency reuse also increases interference, thus reducing spectral efficiency

35

$/Sub/Mo

Achievable Rate (bps/Hz)

6

Revenue

30

Profit

25 20 15 10

x+ pe a C

es sal f o st co

x pe Ca

5 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 4

COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Mobile Technology Evolution 3G

0101010101 1010101010 0101010101

1.25MHz

LTE with MIMO increases spectral efficiency by 3050% compared to 3G

5MHz

Today

4G/LTE LTE scales better than 3G reaching full potential with 10MHz+ bandwidths

0101010101 0101010101 1010101010 1010101010 0101010101 0101010101

1.4MHz 3MHz

10MHz

5MHz

Carrier Aggregation

20 MHz

20MHz

LTE Advanced brings new innovations enabling higher throughputs to end users

LTE Advanced

20 MHz Freq

Network MIMO 5 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Bell Labs Leads the Way with Multi-band Remote Radio Head

Modular Active Antenna Array

3G Only 0%

2011

2012

-22% -27%

Small Cells introduced

System on Chip based multi-technology Baseband

2014

LTE introduced

3G+

25%

2013

-27% -33%

Small Cells and LTE combined

-51%

50% TCO per bit reduction

lightRadio

Cost Effective Coverage and Capacity 6 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Up to 55% savings in urban areas

Summary • Mobile data traffic is expected to grow 30 times over the next 5 years • The physical limitation on data compression (Shannon bound) creates the need for the availability of wider bandwidth • Spectrum reuse through small cells and cell splitting can help with maximizing the use of scarce spectrum, but the cost of equipment and increase in interference make indefinite reuse impractical • Technology improvements, including 4G/LTE, enable the use of wider spectrum bandwidths to increase network capacity and improve end user experience • More spectrum is needed to maintain the current momentum of innovation

7 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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