Monthly European ETF Market Trends AWS
LYXOR ETF BAROMETER
J A N U A R Y 2 014
Monthly European ETF Market Trends
2013 in brief
Lyxor ETF Marlène Hassine Head of ETF Research +33 1 42 13 59 56 [email protected]
Contents European ETFs in 2013 Net Inflows (EURM)
p1
EQUITIES Developed Equities Emerging Market Equities European Equities
p2 p2 p3
FIXED INCOME European Debt Market European Credit Market Emerging Market Debt
p4 p4 p4
2013 has been another strong year for ETF in Europe. Assets Under Management have reached all time high at EUR287bn with an increase of 21% in line with European ETF 5 year CAGR. NET NEW ASSETS (NNA) in 2013 in Europe amount to EUR16.7bn, representing a third of the yearly AUM increase. The expected great rotation between assets has not taken place in 2013 as fixed income flows are in line with last year at EUR8bn even if equity flows are higher than last year of EUR14.3bn vs. 11.2bn in 2012. n Inflows in 2013 have been dominated by developed countries equities indexations of EUR16.7bn. Emerging Equity and Commodities have experienced the strongest outflows of EUR3.7bn and EUR5.5bn respectively. Money Market ETFs have also experienced strong outflows that have been more than partially compensated by inflows on enhanced cash ETFs. Interestingly inflows on fixed income ETFs have been concentrated on European govies backed by a significant reduction in Eurozone systemic risk. n The US economic reflation theme has driven major inflows into US equities all along 2013 of EUR5.2bn but these inflows have halted since August 2013. n 2013 is also the year of a return of European investors to Japan with inflows of EUR4.5bn, fueled by the new Abenomics policy, the easing monetary policy of the Jan 4,608 Japan Central Bank and the availability of currency hedged ETFs.
Feb
1,675
n European 222 equity indexations have started to benefit in H2 2013 from ongoing Apr 747 fiscal - consolidation, the banking union project and an accommodative central bank in May 1,185 Europe. Inflows have accelerated in H2 2013 to reach EUR2.9bn YTD, after EUR1.2bn Monthly Average Jun - 1,531 of outflows in H1 2013. Jul 3,072 Mar
Aug
n Due to a low454 yield environment and attractive equity valuations, yield search & value 1,009 style investments have been the other key topics in 2013, with dividend, high yield and 2,868 Oct Emerging Market debt 2,313 on one side and value theme, financial sector and European Nov Dec 1,615 peripheral country equities on the other side gathering a total of EUR 7.4bn of inflows YTD. Sep
- 2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
EUROPEAN ETFS IN 2013 – NET INFLOWS (EURM) STRONG INFLOWS IN DEVELOPED EQUITIES 16,744 16,749
European ETF Market NNA Developed Market Equities of wh. U.S.
5,537 4,489 2,892
of wh. Japan of wh. Europe Emerging Market Equities
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorized either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC. It is not directed at retail clients.
U.S. Govies Emerging Markets Govies Corporate Bonds High Yield Money Market Commodities
222 - 747 1,185
May Jun Jul
3,072 454 1,009
Sep
2,868
Oct
2,313
Nov
1,615
Dec
-5,470 0
10,000
20,000
Monthly Average
- 1,531
Aug
-738
- 10,000
1,675
Apr
1,270 4,050 969 1,301 263 1,706
Europe Govies
4,608
Jan Feb Mar
-3,738
Global Equities
REBOUND IN H2 2013 NNA
- 2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/2013 to 31/12/2013, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU.
16,744 16,749
European ETF Market NNA Developed E TF.R ESE A RCH@LY XOR .COM I + 3 3 (0)1 42 13 59 56 Market Equities of wh. U.S.
EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
5,537 4,489 2,892
of wh. Japan of wh. Europe Emerging Market Equities Global Equities Europe Govies U.S. Govies
-3,738 1,270 4,050 969
LYXOR ETF BAROMETER
J A N U A R Y 2 014
EQUITIES DEVELOPED EQUITIES
Announced changes in Fed policy have brought US inflows for European investors to a halt since August after a very strong start of the year. Positive US economy recovery data have triggered a revival in December. Since August 2013 outflows equals to EUR31M after more than EUR4.3bn of inflows until July. Japanese investments have been consistent and significant all over the year rather decorrelated from the rest of the flows. After a halt in August the trend is again on the rise in line with the continued easing monetary policy. MASSIVE INFLOWS ON US EQUITY ETFS IN H1 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON US EQUITY ETFS
CONSISTENT FLOWS IN JAPAN ETFS ALL OVER THE YEAR MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON JAPAN EQUITY ETFS 1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
800
800
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
600
600
2,000
2,000
1,200 400
1,200 400
1,000 200
1,000 200
800 0
800 0
600 -200
600 -200
500
500
1,500
1,500
0
0
1,000
1,000
-500 JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC 500 JAN FEB MAR 500APR
-500
0
200
1,000 500
200
0
-200
-200
-400 Since the first announcement of the Fed tapering, Emerging equities have significantly suffered. The small rebound since September, triggered by the focus of the Fed toward forward guidance of low interest rates next year, has been short lived with significant outflows in December. 1,500 300 300 -400
-500
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
1,500
400 -400 JAN FEBJUN MARJUL APRAUG MAYSEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
0
0
EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES -500
400 -400
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
200
200
1,000
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS ON EMERGING ETFS 500 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EMERGING EQUITY ETFS
ERRATIC REBOUND IN H2 2013 OF EMERGING 100 ASIA EQUITY100 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EMERGING ASIA EQUITY ETFS 0 0
0 1,500
0 1,500
300 -100
300 -100
-500 1,000
-500 1,000
200 -200
200 -200
-1,000 500
-1,000 500
100 -300
100 -300
-1,500 0
-1,500 0
0 -400
0 -400
-2,000 -2,000 -500 JAN FEB MAR -500APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-100 -500
-100 -500 -200
JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
-200
-1,000
-1,000
-300
-300
-1,500
-1,500
-400
-400
-2,000
-2,000
-500
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorized either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC. It is not directed at retail clients.
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-500 JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/2013 to 31/12/2013, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU.
E TF.R ESE A RCH@LY XOR .COM I + 3 3 (0)1 42 13 59 56 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
LYXOR ETF BAROMETER
EUROPEAN EQUITIES
J A N U A R Y 2 014
After EUR1.2bn of outflows in H1 2013, flows have been positive (EUR4.1bn) in H2 2013, reflecting an improvement in the economic environment and more positive trends in the domain of structural reforms. STRONG INFLOWS ON EUROPE EQUITY ETFS IN H2 2013
MASSIVE OUTFLOWS ON GERMAN EQUITY ETFS MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON GERMAN EQUITY ETFS
MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPE EQUITY ETFS 1,500
1,500
500
1,000
1,000
0
0
500
500
-500
-500
500
0
0
-1,000
-1,000
-500 1,500
-500 1,500
-1,500 500
-1,500 500
-1,000 1,000
-1,000 1,000
-2,000 0
-2,000 0
-1,500 500
-1,500 500
-2,500 -500
-2,500 -500
-2,000 0
-2,000 0
-3,000 -1,000
-500
-500
-1,500
-1,500
-1,000
-1,000
-2,000
-2,000
-1,500
-1,500
-2,500 500 -3,000 0
-2,500
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-3,000 -1,000
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
400 -1,500
1,500 500 The aggregate market picture masks high among -3,000 heterogeneity -2,000 0 1,000 countries. Germany has seen significant outflows in H2 2013. Flows -500 500 -500 in 0 peripheral countries have rebound significantly together with -1,000 -1,000 -1,500 -500 flows on the European region as a whole, -1,500 the benefiting from the 2,500 500 2,500 -2,000 -1,000 -2,000 2,000 accommodative monetary policy. 2,000 400 -1,500
-2,500 1,500
300 -2,000
300 POSITIVE FLOWS ON SPAIN & ITALY… -2,000
…AND ON THE EUROPEAN REGION AS A WHOLE 1,000 1,000 -3,000 -3,000
1,500 -2,000 1,000
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
500 0 -500 500 -1,000
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
200 500 100 400 0 300 -100 200
MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON PERIPHERAL EUROPE EQUITY ETFS 200 500 100 400 0 300 -100 JAN FEB MAR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC 200 APR 100
100 0
0
500 -100
500 -100
400
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
400
600 300 500 200 400
600 300 500 200 400
200 0 600 100 500 -100 0 JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC 400 -100 300 300 -200 -200 MAR APR DEC FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG JUN OCT JUL NOV SEP OCT NOV DEC 200 JAN MAY 200 JAN FEB POSITIVE TREND INMAY H2SEP 2013 INAUG SMID CAP
EQUITIES 100
100
-100 600 -200 500
-2,500 1,500
FEB MAR APR JUN AUG SEP NOV JANMAY FEB MAR JUL APR MAY EQUITY JUNOCT JUL AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC 500 JAN 500 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPE REGION ETFS
2,5000 -500 2,000 -1,000 1,500 -1,500 1,000 -2,000 500 0
0 2,500 -500 2,000 -1,000 1,500 -1,500 1,000 -2,000 500
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
0
-500
-500
-1,000
-1,000
-1,500 -1,500 2,500 2,500 -2,000 -2,000 2,000 JAN FEB 2,000 JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC MAR APR 1,500 250 1,000
1,500 250 1,000
500 200
500 200
0 0 Two other themes have dominated the market in 2013: the 150 European 150 300 -500 -500 100 -1,000 -1,000 200 100gathering style investment with Small & Mid cap significant inflows in 100 600 0 250 250 -1,500 -1,500 100 50 been 50consistent all over the H2 2013; the dividend theme has also 500 -2,000 -2,000 -100 0 200 200 400 0 0 year totaling EUR1.4bn. -100 150 150
300 100
0
JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON SMALL & MID CAP EUROPE EQUITY 0 ETFS -100 600 -200 JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR 500 APR
400 300 This document is for the 200 exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and 100 categorized either as “eligible 0 -100 counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning -200 of JAN Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC. It is not directed at retail clients.
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-50
-50
APR JUN JUL SEP JANMAY FEBIN MAR APR AUG MAYDIVIDEND JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP 100 100 JAN FEB MAR CONSISTENT INFLOWS 2013 IN ETFS
OCT NOV DEC
50 50 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPEAN DIVIDEND EQUITY ETFS 0
0
250 -50
250 -50
200
JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
200
400 300 200 100
150
150
100
100
50
50
0 -100 -200
FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JULNOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
0
0
-50
-50
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/2013 to 31/12/2013, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU.
E TF.R ESE A RCH@LY XOR .COM I + 3 3 (0)1 42 13 59 56 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
LYXOR ETF BAROMETER
J A N U A R Y 2 014
FIXED INCOME EUROPEAN DEBT MARKET
Low interest rates have triggered significant outflows from Money market ETFs that have been nearly compensated by inflows on new enhanced cash products: respectively EUR 2.1bn of outflows vs EUR1.4bn of inflows. European govies have attracted significant interest all along 2013 as BCE policy kept yield on a downward trend. SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS IN 2013 IN MONEY MARKET
CONSISTENT FLOWS ON EUROPEAN GOVIES ALL OVER THE YEAR
MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON MONEY MARKET EUROPE ETFS
MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPE GOVIES ETFS
300
300
700
700
200
200
600
600
100
100
500
500
400 700
400 700
300 600
300 600
200 500
200 500
100 400
100 400
0 300 -100 200 -200 100 -300 0 -400 -100 -500 -200
0 300 -100 200 -200 100 -300 0 -400 -100 -500 JAN FEB -200 MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-300
-300 300
-400
-400 200
-500
EUROPEAN CREDIT MARKET 20 0 -20 -40 -60 20
20 -500
LIMITED BUT ACCELERATED OUTFLOWS ON 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC CORPORATE BONDS -20 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPEAN CORPORATE BOND ETFS -40 -60 20
-120 -40
-120 -40
-60 -140
-60 -140
-160
3000
JAN FEB MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
200 700 100 600 0 500 APR JAN FEB MAR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
400 High yield inflows have rebounded in H2 2013 backed by strong -100 300 -200 demand for yield opposite to what happened in the corporate bond 200 -300 market where already tight spreads have triggered some outflows. 100 -400
-80 0
-140
0
0
-100 -20
-120
100
-500 100
0 -80
-100
200
JAN FEB MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-100 -20
-160 -80
3000
-160 -80
JAN FEB MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-100 20 -120
400
400 0
MORE POSITIVE FLOWS IN H2 IN HIGH JAN FEB MAR APR2013 MAY JUN JUL AUG 300 300 YIELD 100 400 0 300 -100 200 -200 100 -300 0 -400 -100
100 400 0 300 -100 200 -200 100 -300 0 -400 JAN FEB -100 MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-200
0 -140 -20 -160
-200 400
-300
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC -40 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
-400
-300 300
400
EMERGING MARKET DEBT 200
600 0
400 -200 200 -400 0 -600
-200 -400 -600
-400 200
JAN FEB MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-60 600
100 0
-80 600 -100
-100
-120 400
-200
Despite fears of Fed tapering, investments into Emerging debt have -300 -140 200 -160 -400 been significant this year as investors were searching for yield in the 600 0 400 current low interest rate environment. -200 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
200
-400 SIGNIFICANT INFLOWS ALL ALONG THE YEAR IN 0EM DEBT -600
JAN FEB MONTHLY MAR APR MAY JUN JUL SEP JANNET FEB MAR APR AUG MAY JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEPDEBT OCT ETFS NOV DEC NEW ASSETS ON EMERGING MARKET
-200 600 -400 400 -600
JAN FEB MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
200
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorized either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC. It is not directed at retail clients.
SEP OCT NOV DEC
200 200 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPEAN HIGH YIELD BOND ETFS
0 -200 -400 -600
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/2013 to 31/12/2013, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU.
E TF.R ESE A RCH@LY XOR .COM I + 3 3 (0)1 42 13 59 56 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
LYXOR ETF BAROMETER
J A N U A R Y 2 014
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J A N U A R Y 2 014
Monthly European ETF Market Trends
2013 in brief
Lyxor ETF Marlène Hassine Head of ETF Research +33 1 42 13 59 56 [email protected]
Contents European ETFs in 2013 Net Inflows (EURM)
p1
EQUITIES Developed Equities Emerging Market Equities European Equities
p2 p2 p3
FIXED INCOME European Debt Market European Credit Market Emerging Market Debt
p4 p4 p4
2013 has been another strong year for ETF in Europe. Assets Under Management have reached all time high at EUR287bn with an increase of 21% in line with European ETF 5 year CAGR. NET NEW ASSETS (NNA) in 2013 in Europe amount to EUR16.7bn, representing a third of the yearly AUM increase. The expected great rotation between assets has not taken place in 2013 as fixed income flows are in line with last year at EUR8bn even if equity flows are higher than last year of EUR14.3bn vs. 11.2bn in 2012. n Inflows in 2013 have been dominated by developed countries equities indexations of EUR16.7bn. Emerging Equity and Commodities have experienced the strongest outflows of EUR3.7bn and EUR5.5bn respectively. Money Market ETFs have also experienced strong outflows that have been more than partially compensated by inflows on enhanced cash ETFs. Interestingly inflows on fixed income ETFs have been concentrated on European govies backed by a significant reduction in Eurozone systemic risk. n The US economic reflation theme has driven major inflows into US equities all along 2013 of EUR5.2bn but these inflows have halted since August 2013. n 2013 is also the year of a return of European investors to Japan with inflows of EUR4.5bn, fueled by the new Abenomics policy, the easing monetary policy of the Jan 4,608 Japan Central Bank and the availability of currency hedged ETFs.
Feb
1,675
n European 222 equity indexations have started to benefit in H2 2013 from ongoing Apr 747 fiscal - consolidation, the banking union project and an accommodative central bank in May 1,185 Europe. Inflows have accelerated in H2 2013 to reach EUR2.9bn YTD, after EUR1.2bn Monthly Average Jun - 1,531 of outflows in H1 2013. Jul 3,072 Mar
Aug
n Due to a low454 yield environment and attractive equity valuations, yield search & value 1,009 style investments have been the other key topics in 2013, with dividend, high yield and 2,868 Oct Emerging Market debt 2,313 on one side and value theme, financial sector and European Nov Dec 1,615 peripheral country equities on the other side gathering a total of EUR 7.4bn of inflows YTD. Sep
- 2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
EUROPEAN ETFS IN 2013 – NET INFLOWS (EURM) STRONG INFLOWS IN DEVELOPED EQUITIES 16,744 16,749
European ETF Market NNA Developed Market Equities of wh. U.S.
5,537 4,489 2,892
of wh. Japan of wh. Europe Emerging Market Equities
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorized either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC. It is not directed at retail clients.
U.S. Govies Emerging Markets Govies Corporate Bonds High Yield Money Market Commodities
222 - 747 1,185
May Jun Jul
3,072 454 1,009
Sep
2,868
Oct
2,313
Nov
1,615
Dec
-5,470 0
10,000
20,000
Monthly Average
- 1,531
Aug
-738
- 10,000
1,675
Apr
1,270 4,050 969 1,301 263 1,706
Europe Govies
4,608
Jan Feb Mar
-3,738
Global Equities
REBOUND IN H2 2013 NNA
- 2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/2013 to 31/12/2013, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU.
16,744 16,749
European ETF Market NNA Developed E TF.R ESE A RCH@LY XOR .COM I + 3 3 (0)1 42 13 59 56 Market Equities of wh. U.S.
EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
5,537 4,489 2,892
of wh. Japan of wh. Europe Emerging Market Equities Global Equities Europe Govies U.S. Govies
-3,738 1,270 4,050 969
LYXOR ETF BAROMETER
J A N U A R Y 2 014
EQUITIES DEVELOPED EQUITIES
Announced changes in Fed policy have brought US inflows for European investors to a halt since August after a very strong start of the year. Positive US economy recovery data have triggered a revival in December. Since August 2013 outflows equals to EUR31M after more than EUR4.3bn of inflows until July. Japanese investments have been consistent and significant all over the year rather decorrelated from the rest of the flows. After a halt in August the trend is again on the rise in line with the continued easing monetary policy. MASSIVE INFLOWS ON US EQUITY ETFS IN H1 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON US EQUITY ETFS
CONSISTENT FLOWS IN JAPAN ETFS ALL OVER THE YEAR MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON JAPAN EQUITY ETFS 1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
800
800
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
600
600
2,000
2,000
1,200 400
1,200 400
1,000 200
1,000 200
800 0
800 0
600 -200
600 -200
500
500
1,500
1,500
0
0
1,000
1,000
-500 JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC 500 JAN FEB MAR 500APR
-500
0
200
1,000 500
200
0
-200
-200
-400 Since the first announcement of the Fed tapering, Emerging equities have significantly suffered. The small rebound since September, triggered by the focus of the Fed toward forward guidance of low interest rates next year, has been short lived with significant outflows in December. 1,500 300 300 -400
-500
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
1,500
400 -400 JAN FEBJUN MARJUL APRAUG MAYSEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
0
0
EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES -500
400 -400
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
200
200
1,000
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS ON EMERGING ETFS 500 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EMERGING EQUITY ETFS
ERRATIC REBOUND IN H2 2013 OF EMERGING 100 ASIA EQUITY100 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EMERGING ASIA EQUITY ETFS 0 0
0 1,500
0 1,500
300 -100
300 -100
-500 1,000
-500 1,000
200 -200
200 -200
-1,000 500
-1,000 500
100 -300
100 -300
-1,500 0
-1,500 0
0 -400
0 -400
-2,000 -2,000 -500 JAN FEB MAR -500APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-100 -500
-100 -500 -200
JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
-200
-1,000
-1,000
-300
-300
-1,500
-1,500
-400
-400
-2,000
-2,000
-500
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorized either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC. It is not directed at retail clients.
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-500 JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/2013 to 31/12/2013, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU.
E TF.R ESE A RCH@LY XOR .COM I + 3 3 (0)1 42 13 59 56 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
LYXOR ETF BAROMETER
EUROPEAN EQUITIES
J A N U A R Y 2 014
After EUR1.2bn of outflows in H1 2013, flows have been positive (EUR4.1bn) in H2 2013, reflecting an improvement in the economic environment and more positive trends in the domain of structural reforms. STRONG INFLOWS ON EUROPE EQUITY ETFS IN H2 2013
MASSIVE OUTFLOWS ON GERMAN EQUITY ETFS MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON GERMAN EQUITY ETFS
MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPE EQUITY ETFS 1,500
1,500
500
1,000
1,000
0
0
500
500
-500
-500
500
0
0
-1,000
-1,000
-500 1,500
-500 1,500
-1,500 500
-1,500 500
-1,000 1,000
-1,000 1,000
-2,000 0
-2,000 0
-1,500 500
-1,500 500
-2,500 -500
-2,500 -500
-2,000 0
-2,000 0
-3,000 -1,000
-500
-500
-1,500
-1,500
-1,000
-1,000
-2,000
-2,000
-1,500
-1,500
-2,500 500 -3,000 0
-2,500
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-3,000 -1,000
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
400 -1,500
1,500 500 The aggregate market picture masks high among -3,000 heterogeneity -2,000 0 1,000 countries. Germany has seen significant outflows in H2 2013. Flows -500 500 -500 in 0 peripheral countries have rebound significantly together with -1,000 -1,000 -1,500 -500 flows on the European region as a whole, -1,500 the benefiting from the 2,500 500 2,500 -2,000 -1,000 -2,000 2,000 accommodative monetary policy. 2,000 400 -1,500
-2,500 1,500
300 -2,000
300 POSITIVE FLOWS ON SPAIN & ITALY… -2,000
…AND ON THE EUROPEAN REGION AS A WHOLE 1,000 1,000 -3,000 -3,000
1,500 -2,000 1,000
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
500 0 -500 500 -1,000
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
200 500 100 400 0 300 -100 200
MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON PERIPHERAL EUROPE EQUITY ETFS 200 500 100 400 0 300 -100 JAN FEB MAR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC 200 APR 100
100 0
0
500 -100
500 -100
400
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
400
600 300 500 200 400
600 300 500 200 400
200 0 600 100 500 -100 0 JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC 400 -100 300 300 -200 -200 MAR APR DEC FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG JUN OCT JUL NOV SEP OCT NOV DEC 200 JAN MAY 200 JAN FEB POSITIVE TREND INMAY H2SEP 2013 INAUG SMID CAP
EQUITIES 100
100
-100 600 -200 500
-2,500 1,500
FEB MAR APR JUN AUG SEP NOV JANMAY FEB MAR JUL APR MAY EQUITY JUNOCT JUL AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC 500 JAN 500 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPE REGION ETFS
2,5000 -500 2,000 -1,000 1,500 -1,500 1,000 -2,000 500 0
0 2,500 -500 2,000 -1,000 1,500 -1,500 1,000 -2,000 500
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
0
-500
-500
-1,000
-1,000
-1,500 -1,500 2,500 2,500 -2,000 -2,000 2,000 JAN FEB 2,000 JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC MAR APR 1,500 250 1,000
1,500 250 1,000
500 200
500 200
0 0 Two other themes have dominated the market in 2013: the 150 European 150 300 -500 -500 100 -1,000 -1,000 200 100gathering style investment with Small & Mid cap significant inflows in 100 600 0 250 250 -1,500 -1,500 100 50 been 50consistent all over the H2 2013; the dividend theme has also 500 -2,000 -2,000 -100 0 200 200 400 0 0 year totaling EUR1.4bn. -100 150 150
300 100
0
JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON SMALL & MID CAP EUROPE EQUITY 0 ETFS -100 600 -200 JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR 500 APR
400 300 This document is for the 200 exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and 100 categorized either as “eligible 0 -100 counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning -200 of JAN Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC. It is not directed at retail clients.
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-50
-50
APR JUN JUL SEP JANMAY FEBIN MAR APR AUG MAYDIVIDEND JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP 100 100 JAN FEB MAR CONSISTENT INFLOWS 2013 IN ETFS
OCT NOV DEC
50 50 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPEAN DIVIDEND EQUITY ETFS 0
0
250 -50
250 -50
200
JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
200
400 300 200 100
150
150
100
100
50
50
0 -100 -200
FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JULNOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
0
0
-50
-50
JAN FEB MAR APR JANMAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APRAUG MAY SEP JUNOCT JULNOV AUGDEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/2013 to 31/12/2013, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU.
E TF.R ESE A RCH@LY XOR .COM I + 3 3 (0)1 42 13 59 56 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
LYXOR ETF BAROMETER
J A N U A R Y 2 014
FIXED INCOME EUROPEAN DEBT MARKET
Low interest rates have triggered significant outflows from Money market ETFs that have been nearly compensated by inflows on new enhanced cash products: respectively EUR 2.1bn of outflows vs EUR1.4bn of inflows. European govies have attracted significant interest all along 2013 as BCE policy kept yield on a downward trend. SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS IN 2013 IN MONEY MARKET
CONSISTENT FLOWS ON EUROPEAN GOVIES ALL OVER THE YEAR
MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON MONEY MARKET EUROPE ETFS
MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPE GOVIES ETFS
300
300
700
700
200
200
600
600
100
100
500
500
400 700
400 700
300 600
300 600
200 500
200 500
100 400
100 400
0 300 -100 200 -200 100 -300 0 -400 -100 -500 -200
0 300 -100 200 -200 100 -300 0 -400 -100 -500 JAN FEB -200 MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-300
-300 300
-400
-400 200
-500
EUROPEAN CREDIT MARKET 20 0 -20 -40 -60 20
20 -500
LIMITED BUT ACCELERATED OUTFLOWS ON 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC CORPORATE BONDS -20 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPEAN CORPORATE BOND ETFS -40 -60 20
-120 -40
-120 -40
-60 -140
-60 -140
-160
3000
JAN FEB MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
200 700 100 600 0 500 APR JAN FEB MAR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
400 High yield inflows have rebounded in H2 2013 backed by strong -100 300 -200 demand for yield opposite to what happened in the corporate bond 200 -300 market where already tight spreads have triggered some outflows. 100 -400
-80 0
-140
0
0
-100 -20
-120
100
-500 100
0 -80
-100
200
JAN FEB MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-100 -20
-160 -80
3000
-160 -80
JAN FEB MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-100 20 -120
400
400 0
MORE POSITIVE FLOWS IN H2 IN HIGH JAN FEB MAR APR2013 MAY JUN JUL AUG 300 300 YIELD 100 400 0 300 -100 200 -200 100 -300 0 -400 -100
100 400 0 300 -100 200 -200 100 -300 0 -400 JAN FEB -100 MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-200
0 -140 -20 -160
-200 400
-300
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC -40 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
-400
-300 300
400
EMERGING MARKET DEBT 200
600 0
400 -200 200 -400 0 -600
-200 -400 -600
-400 200
JAN FEB MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
-60 600
100 0
-80 600 -100
-100
-120 400
-200
Despite fears of Fed tapering, investments into Emerging debt have -300 -140 200 -160 -400 been significant this year as investors were searching for yield in the 600 0 400 current low interest rate environment. -200 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
200
-400 SIGNIFICANT INFLOWS ALL ALONG THE YEAR IN 0EM DEBT -600
JAN FEB MONTHLY MAR APR MAY JUN JUL SEP JANNET FEB MAR APR AUG MAY JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEPDEBT OCT ETFS NOV DEC NEW ASSETS ON EMERGING MARKET
-200 600 -400 400 -600
JAN FEB MAR APR JAN MAY FEB JUN MAR JUL APR AUG MAY SEP JUN OCT JUL NOV AUG DEC SEP OCT NOV DEC
200
This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorized either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC. It is not directed at retail clients.
SEP OCT NOV DEC
200 200 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPEAN HIGH YIELD BOND ETFS
0 -200 -400 -600
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/2013 to 31/12/2013, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU.
E TF.R ESE A RCH@LY XOR .COM I + 3 3 (0)1 42 13 59 56 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
LYXOR ETF BAROMETER
J A N U A R Y 2 014
LYXOR ETF MAIN RISKS Capital at risk: The capital invested is not guaranteed. Replication risk: The fund objectives might not be reached due to unexpected events on the underlying markets which will impact the index calculation and the efficient fund replication. Fund Liquidity risk: The Fund’s liquidity and/or value may be negatively affected by different factors.
Counterparty risk: The Fund shall be exposed to the counterparty risk resulting from the use of OTC forward financial instruments contracted with a lending institution. Currency risk: The UCITS ETFs are exposed to currency risk, as they may be denominated in a currency different from the index.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION This document is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. It is each investor’s responsibility to ascertain that it is authorised to subscribe, or invest into this product. Prior to investing in the product, investors should seek independent financial, tax, accounting and legal advice.
The accuracy, completeness or relevance of the information which has been drawn from external sources is not guaranteed although it is drawn from sources reasonably believed to be reliable. Subject to any applicable law, Société Générale, Lyxor AM and Lyxor Asset Management Luxembourg shall not assume any liability in this respect.
The indexes and the trademarks used in this document are the intellectual property of index sponsors and/or its licensors. The indexes are used under license from index sponsors. The Funds based on the indexes are in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by index sponsors and/or its licensors and neither index sponsors nor its licensors shall have any liability with respect thereto.
The market information displayed in this document is based on data at a given moment and may change from time to time.
Société Générale, Lyxor AM and Lyxor Asset Management Luxembourg recommend that investors read carefully the “risk factors” section of the product’s prospectus and the “Risk and reward” section of the Key Investor Information Document (KIID). The prospectus in French for French Lyxor UCITS ETFs and in English for Luxembourg Lyxor UCITS ETFs and the KIID in the local languages of the Marketing Countries are available free of charge on www.lyxoretf.com or upon request to [email protected]. The attention of investors is drawn to the fact that, the prospectus of Luxembourg Lyxor UCITS ETFs is only available in English. Updated composition of the product’s investment portfolio is available on www.lyxoretf.com. Indicative net asset value is published on the Reuters and Bloomberg pages of the products, and might also be mentioned on the websites of the stock exchanges where the product is listed. The products are the object of market-making contracts, the purpose of which is to ensure the liquidity of the products on the exchange, assuming normal market conditions and normally functioning computer systems. Units of a specific UCITS ETF managed by an asset manager and purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the asset manager itself. Investors must buy and sell units on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. These products include a risk of capital loss. The redemption value of these products may be less than the amount initially invested. In a worst case scenario, investors could sustain the loss of their entire investment. The indices referred to herein (the “Index”) are not sponsored, approved or sold by Société Générale, Lyxor AM or Lyxor Asset Management Luxembourg. Société Générale, Lyxor AM and Lyxor Asset Management Luxembourg shall not assume any responsibility in this respect.
Société Générale is a French credit institution (bank) authorised by the Autorité de contrôle prudential et de résolution (the French Prudential Control Authority). Lyxor Asset Management Luxembourg, 18, boulevard Royal L-2449 Luxembourg, is a Luxembourg société anonyme authorized by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier as management company. Lyxor International Asset Management (Lyxor AM) is a French investment management company authorized by the Autorité des marchés financiers and placed under the regulations of the UCITS Directive (2009/65/CE). © COPYRIGHT 2013 LYXOR INTERNATIONAL ASSET MANAGEMENT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Notice to UK Investors: This material is issued in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under registration number 435658. Notice to Swiss Investors: This document and the information contained therein do not constitute an issue prospectus according to articles 652a and 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations (“CO”) or a listing prospectus according the Listing Rules of the SIX Swiss Exchange. The products are authorized for the offer and distribution in Switzerland or from Switzerland pursuant to the Swiss Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes (CISA). The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA has authorized Société Générale, Zurich Branch (Talacker 50, Case postale 1928, 8021 Zürich), to act as Swiss Representative and Paying Agent of the Funds in Switzerland. The product’s documentation (prospectus, KIID, articles of association, annual and semi-annual reports) can be obtained free of charge at the Swiss representative’s office.
E TF.R ESE A RCH@LY XOR .COM I + 3 3 (0)1 42 13 59 56 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
Ref. 714438 - Studio Société Générale +33(0)1 42 14 27 05 - 01/2014
Lyxor UCITS ETFs referred on this document are open ended mutual investment funds (i) established under the French law and approved by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (the French Financial Markets Authority) or (ii) established under Luxembourg law and approved by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (the Luxembourg Financial Markets Authority) (CSSF) and authorized for marketing of their units or shares in various European countries (the Marketing Countries) pursuant to the article 93 of the 2009/65/EC Directive.
This document does not constitute an offer for sale of securities in the United States of America. The product herein described will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “U.S. Securities Act”) and may not be offered or sold in the United States of America without being registered or being exempted from registration under the U.S. Securities Act. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale, Lyxor Asset Management (Lyxor AM) or any of their respective subsidiaries to purchase or sell the product referred to herein.
