Natural Gas Vehicles in Today’s U.S. Marketplace APGA Gas Policy Conference – April 4, 2017
About NGVAmerica NGVAmerica is the national organization dedicated to the development of a growing, profitable, and sustainable marketplace for vehicles powered by natural gas and for promoting the use of more natural gas in transportation.
NGVAmerica represents 200+ companies, LDCs, fleets, OEMS, environmental and government organizations. 2
NGVAmerica Members
3
LDC/Utility Members
What’s on U.S. Roads Today? U.S. NGV INVENTORY BY LIGHT-, MEDIUM-, AND HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES
JANUARY 2016
88,500
~165,000 Total
28,000 Light-Duty Vehicles Source: Yborra & Associates
Medium-Duty Vehicles
48,500 Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Today
Long & short haul truck market continues transition
About 30% of transit buses operate on NG
About 60% all new refuse trucks orders are NG
Serving more than 40 major airports
Rail industry piloting LNG locomotives
Major marine companies deploying LNGpowered vessels
Federal Policy – Level Playing Field for NGVs
5-year extension of the fuel & infrastructure credits Remove $30,000 cap on infrastructure credit
Adjust the 12% FET for HD natural gas trucks
Seek $15m for U.S. DOE NGV R&D in FY 2017
Seek $50m for deployment grants for Clean Cities
Equalize tax of LNG used in marine/inland waterways
2,000 lb. Weight Exemption for NGVs
NGVAmerica 2017 NGV Whitepaper – New Administration
State policy putting more NGVs on the road... What are states doing to do promote NGVs? Vehicle purchase grants or tax incentives Fuel station grants or tax incentives Sales & use tax exemptions Motor fuel tax preferential or equal treatment HOV lane access Method of sale GGE/DGE Weight exemption/FAST Act implementation Market participant Over $120 million in new, extended, or expanded state incentives since 2015
NGVAmerica Technology & Development Committee
Emissions & Environmental
Vocational & Application Specific Analysis Natural Gas: A Clean, Safe, and Smart Choice for the Recycling and Waste Industry Latest information used by fleets for safely operating and maintaining collection and transfer vehicles Recommendations for operating and maintaining refueling equipment and maintenance facilities. Partnering with trucking, waste and transit associations
Advantages of Natural Gas as a Transportation Fuel Abundant Domestic Availability, Widespread Distribution Infrastructure, Low Cost and Price Stability
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Natural gas fuel station infrastructure is continually expanding
≈2,000 Natural Gas Stations More than doubled past 5 years Avg 8-10 new stations per month Source: NGVAmerica, January 2017
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U.S. CNG Data (March 2017)
U.S. LNG Data (March 2017)
Source: NGVAmerica, January 2017
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Diverse network of natural gas station developers
Natural gas retail fuel sellers LDCs C-Stores Truck Stops Grocery/Warehouse stores Leasing companies Gas exploration & production Midstream pipeline
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The U.S. natural gas pipeline system is well poised to grow the national network of CNG and LNG fueling stations
2.5+ million
miles of U.S. pipeline infrastructure 16
Projected Fuel-Price Differential (prices per $DGE)
Natural Gas Provides Long-Term Fuel Cost Savings
Natural Gas vs. Oil: • •
3:1 price advantage over oil on a Btu basis Pump prices $0.75 to $1 lower than diesel 17
North America has an abundant domestic supply of conventional natural gas Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, January 2017
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North America has abundant sources of renewable natural gas that can be harnessed
Source: Coalition for Renewable Natural Gas, 2017
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Source: Coalition for Renewable Natural Gas, 2017
Renewable natural gas production is steadily increasing to meet growing demand throughout the U.S. 20
Renewable natural gas (RNG) provides even greater CO2 and greenhouse gas emission reductions Source: www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/fuelpathways/pathwaytable.htm, CARB, February 2017. Adjusted for heavy-duty truck applications.
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The cleanest heavy-duty truck engine in the world is powered by natural gas - Certified in 2015 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and California Air Resources Board
The Cummins Westport Ultra-Low NOx engine is certified to a 0.02 g/bhp-hr standard, which is: •
90% cleaner than the EPA’s current NOx standard
•
90% cleaner than the latest available diesel engine 22
Cummins Westport Optional Near Zero Product Line
ISB6.7 G
ISL G
ISX12 G
Spark Ignited, SEGR, TWC Peak Rating: 240 hp 560 lb-ft torque 33,000 lb. GVW School bus/Shuttle bus/Sweeper/Yard spotter • 0.1 g/bhp NOx Available Now
• • • • •
Spark Ignited, SEGR, TWC Peak Rating: 320 hp 1000 lb-ft torque 66,000 lb. GVW Refuse/Transit/Regional P&D Truck/Mixers • NZ Available Now
• • • • • •
6.7L • • • • •
8.9L
11.9L
Spark Ignited, SEGR, TWC Peak Rating: 400 hp 1450 lb-ft torque 80,000 lb. GVW Regional Haul Truck/Tractor/Refuse NZ Available Q1 2018 23
What does this really mean?
NGVs + RNG offer the cleanest commercially available path to reduce heavy-duty vehicle emissions (for likely a decade or more). 24
In-use testing results of heavy-duty trucks in port applications found:
» Natural gas vehicles emitted lower NOx:
The ISL G natural gas engine emitted lower NOx emissions than its EPA certification standard. Emissions decreased as the duty cycles decreased (i.e., slower speeds, idling, stop-andgo traffic).
» Diesel vehicles emit up to 5x more NOx:
2010 diesel engines with SCR emitted up to 5 times more NOx emissions than its EPA certification standard. Emissions increased as the duty cycles decreased.
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The Opportunity Volkswagen Environmental Mitigation Trust Funding
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Funding must be used to:
$2.9 Billion
Volkswagen Environmental Mitigation Trust
Address excess nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions through vehicle purchases/ repowers Benefit residents in areas with greatest need (e.g., near urban/industrial areas) Replace polluting diesel equipment with cleaner, new or repowered vehicles, including: ‒ ‒ ‒ ‒ ‒
Local freight trucks Transit buses School buses Shuttle buses Refuse trucks 27
Urban Emissions: Leading Sources
Source: DTF Analysis on HIS Vehicles in Operation Data, December 2015
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Urban Emissions: Public Health Impacts
≈ 50%
of Americans live in areas with air that is unhealthy to breathe
Breathing in particle pollution increases the risk of: • Asthma • Lung Cancer • Heart Disease • Premature Death
Source: American Lung Association's "State of the Air 2016" 29
Funds for Each State ($2,925,000,000) Initial Subaccounts Alaska Hawaii North Dakota Puerto Rico South Dakota Wyoming District of Columbia Delaware Mississippi West Virginia Nebraska Montana Rhode Island Arkansas Kansa Idaho New Mexico Vermont Louisiana
Combined Totals $8,125,000.00 $8,125,000.00 $8,125,000.00 $8,125,000.00 $8,125,000.00 $8,125,000.00 $8,125,000.00 $9,676,682.97 $9,874,413.91 $12,131,842.13 $12,248,347.48 $12,602,424.88 $14,368,857.94 $14,647,709.09 $15,662,238.80 $17,349,037.39 $17,982,660.90 $18,692,130.18 $19,848,805.30
Initial Subaccounts Kentucky Oklahoma Iowa Maine South Carolina Nevada Alabama New Hampshire Utah Indiana Missouri Tennessee Minnesota Connecticut Arizona Georgia Michigan Colorado
Combined Totals $20,378,649.58 $20,922,485.12 $21,201,737.70 $21,053,064.48 $33,895,491.39 $24,874,024.48 $25,480,967.86 $30,914,841.09 $35,177,506.14 $40,935,880.59 $41,152,051.74 $45,759,914.40 $47,001,661.43 $55,721,169.94 $56,660,078.00 $63,624,725.56 $64,807,014.63 $68,739,918.33
Initial Subaccounts Wisconsin New Jersey Oregon Massachusetts Maryland Ohio North Carolina Virginia Illinois Washington Pennsylvania New York Florida Texas California Tribal acct Tribal Admin Cost Trust Admin Cost
Combined Totals $67,077,457.70 $72,215,085.39 $72,967,518.46 $75,064,424.40 $75,714,238.01 $75,302,522.67 $92,045,658.00 $93,633,980.48 $108,679,676.98 $112,745,650.15 $118,569,539.52 $127,701,806.94 $166,278,744.54 $209,319,163.57 $422,636,320.14 $54,447,921.22 $1,088,958.42 $29,250,000.00
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VW Environmental Mitigation Trust (EMT) Timeline This timeline reflects reasonable projection of a potential implementation schedule based on dates in the settlement, but various factors will inevitably change the dates provided here Partial Settlement Approved – Settlement Effective Date (10.25.16)
Parties sign Trust Agreement Trust Effective Date (4.1.17)
Oct ‘16 Nov ‘16 Dec ‘16 March ‘17
Parties submit list of potential Trustees (11.24.16)
April ‘17
States Submit Mitigation Plans (11.1.17)
States File for Beneficiary Status (6.1.17)
June ‘17
July ‘17 Aug ‘17 Oct ‘17 Nov ‘17
Court selects Trustee (3.1.17)
States/Beneficiaries develop Mitigation Plans
Trustee publishes list of State Beneficiaries (8.1.17)
Deadline for spending 80% of allocated fund and requesting 100% of funds (1.16.27)
Beneficiaries Filing Funding Request (12.1.17)
Dec ‘17
Jan. ‘18
2027
Deadline for Trustee Approve Request (1.1.18)
Beneficiaries formulate & finalize initial spending plan and request
2032
Deadline for spending all funds (1.16.32)
Potentially a BIG Impact If just 10% of $2.9B EMT fund is devoted to natural gas truck projects: $290 million in funding for new HD trucks $50,000 per truck or 25% of cost equals 5,800 new NG trucks Fuel consumption 7,500 DGE per truck = 43.5 million DGE in annual sales $2.5 per DGE sold = $109 million in annual sales 10 year fuels sales = $1.087 billion fuel sales Total sale/revenue including truck incentive = $1.37 billion in NG related sales Total revenue including full price of trucks = Over $2 billion in revenue/sales
Short/Regional Haul Truck Comparison – 100% Funding Scenario
Data Source: NOx emissions are based on low-NOx natural gas engines. EV emissions are the same as natural gas emissions based on the inclusion of power plant emissions, EPA MOVES emission factors for 2017 diesel vehicle, and EPA MOVES for 2007 replacement diesel vehicles. Useful life, cost and mileage vary by applications. Additional details available from NGVA upon request.
Dollar-for-Dollar, NGVs Deliver the Largest & Most Cost-Effective NOx Emissions Reductions
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Refuse Comparison – 100% Funding Scenario
Data Source: NOx emissions are based on low-NOx natural gas engines. EV emissions are the same as natural gas emissions based on the inclusion of power plant emissions, EPA MOVES emission factors for 2017 diesel vehicle, and EPA MOVES for 2007 replacement diesel vehicles. Useful life, cost and mileage vary by applications. Additional details available from NGVA upon request.
Dollar-for-Dollar, NGVs Deliver the Largest & Most Cost-Effective NOx Emissions Reductions
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School Bus Comparison – 100% Funding Scenario
Data Source: NOx emissions are based on low-NOx natural gas engines. EV emissions are the same as natural gas emissions based on the inclusion of power plant emissions, EPA MOVES emission factors for 2017 diesel vehicle, and EPA MOVES for 2007 replacement diesel vehicles. Useful life, cost and mileage vary by applications. Additional details available from NGVA upon request.
Dollar-for-Dollar, NGVs Deliver the Largest & Most Cost-Effective NOx Emissions Reductions
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Transit Comparison – 100% Funding Scenario
Data Source: NOx emissions are based on low-NOx natural gas engines. EV emissions are the same as natural gas emissions based on the inclusion of power plant emissions, EPA MOVES emission factors for 2017 diesel vehicle, and EPA MOVES for 2007 replacement diesel vehicles. Useful life, cost and mileage vary by applications. Additional details available from NGVA upon request.
Dollar-for-Dollar, NGVs Deliver the Largest & Most Cost-Effective NOx Emissions Reductions
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Will the U.S. marketplace for NGVs grow?
Data Source: NGVGlobal, December 2016
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Strong factors for future growth in the U.S. market…. NG Price & Diesel Volatility New President & Congress
Emissions & Sustainability
VW, Ports of LA, State Incentives
Continued Investment by Key Players Innovation & New Products
Matthew Godlewski President
[email protected] Visit: www.ngvamerica.org
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