New Orleans Public Schools Demographic Overview
New Orleans Public Schools Demographic Overview
Robert Edgecombe GCR & Associates, Inc. [email protected]
AGENDA • • • • • • • •
Introduction to GCR & Associates Overview of study Post-Katrina Repopulation Trends Current Population Snapshot Post-Katrina Demographic Changes Public School Enrollment Redevelopment Challenges and Prospects Q&A
GCR & ASSOCIATES • Core competencies in urban planning, economic consulting, demographic analysis, and database/GIS technology • Active in a variety of post-Katrina recovery processes • Broad inventory of local demographic, economic, and property-level data
PURPOSE OF STUDY • Develop 10-year population and enrollment estimates and forecasts for each neighborhood – High, Moderate, and Low Scenarios – Grade Groupings, PK-5, 6-8, 9-12
• Estimates and forecasts updated semiannually, including when Census data is released
KATRINA’S IMPACT • Devastating impact on housing stock – Over 57% of all major and severe damage reported in Louisiana was in Orleans Parish – Over 108,700 (81%) housing units were in areas with more than 4 feet of flooding – Over 105,000 (78%) occupied units were classified as having either Major or Severe damage
• Over $17 billion in damage to residential property in Orleans Parish • A majority of rental stock and work force housing was lost
Source: Getty Images
REPOPULATION TRENDS • Most recent estimate of New Orleans population: 353,162 (78% of pre-Katrina) • Brisk post-storm population recovery in neighborhoods with little flooding • Continued growth in neighborhoods with stable housing profile before Katrina and heavy flood damage • Few neighborhoods with 35% OF INCOME ON RENT New Orleans Metro Area Louisiana U.S. 2009 54.70% 49.70% 43.50% 42.50% 2005 45.92% 43.99% 42.0% 40.5% Increase (in percentage points) 8.78% 5.71% 1.45% 1.98% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT • Prior to Katrina: 67,365 students (Fall 2004) • Currently: 40,263 (Fall 2010) • Two distinct post-Katrina trends: – Smaller percentage of overall population enrolled in schools (11% in 2010 vs. 14% in 2004) – Diffuse enrollment patterns • 13% of students in same neighborhood as school site • 10% of students live within ½ mile from school site
DISTRIBUTION OF STUDENTS
ENROLLMENT FORECASTS • Based on post-Katrina trends, GCR estimates that enrollment will increase at approximately the same rate as population • By 2020, student enrollment likely to be between 49,000 and 53,000 • Significant growth in areas which were stable prior to Katrina and which have demonstrated consistent population recovery, but which contain significant number of vacant properties – Eastern New Orleans neighborhoods – Gentilly neighborhoods
• Relatively high growth in neighborhoods in which large-scale redevelopment projects are taking place – Public Housing (Central City, Sixth Ward/Treme/Lafitte) – Algiers Naval Station
• Some areas will experience large population growth but relatively few new students (Central Business District/Warehouse District)
ENROLLMENT FORECASTS
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES • City of New Orleans: – Blight reduction – Major institutional facilities – Private residential market
• New Orleans Public Schools – Quality of educational service – Accurate and responsive facilities planning – Broader economic conditions
Robert Edgecombe GCR & Associates, Inc. [email protected]
AGENDA • • • • • • • •
Introduction to GCR & Associates Overview of study Post-Katrina Repopulation Trends Current Population Snapshot Post-Katrina Demographic Changes Public School Enrollment Redevelopment Challenges and Prospects Q&A
GCR & ASSOCIATES • Core competencies in urban planning, economic consulting, demographic analysis, and database/GIS technology • Active in a variety of post-Katrina recovery processes • Broad inventory of local demographic, economic, and property-level data
PURPOSE OF STUDY • Develop 10-year population and enrollment estimates and forecasts for each neighborhood – High, Moderate, and Low Scenarios – Grade Groupings, PK-5, 6-8, 9-12
• Estimates and forecasts updated semiannually, including when Census data is released
KATRINA’S IMPACT • Devastating impact on housing stock – Over 57% of all major and severe damage reported in Louisiana was in Orleans Parish – Over 108,700 (81%) housing units were in areas with more than 4 feet of flooding – Over 105,000 (78%) occupied units were classified as having either Major or Severe damage
• Over $17 billion in damage to residential property in Orleans Parish • A majority of rental stock and work force housing was lost
Source: Getty Images
REPOPULATION TRENDS • Most recent estimate of New Orleans population: 353,162 (78% of pre-Katrina) • Brisk post-storm population recovery in neighborhoods with little flooding • Continued growth in neighborhoods with stable housing profile before Katrina and heavy flood damage • Few neighborhoods with 35% OF INCOME ON RENT New Orleans Metro Area Louisiana U.S. 2009 54.70% 49.70% 43.50% 42.50% 2005 45.92% 43.99% 42.0% 40.5% Increase (in percentage points) 8.78% 5.71% 1.45% 1.98% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT • Prior to Katrina: 67,365 students (Fall 2004) • Currently: 40,263 (Fall 2010) • Two distinct post-Katrina trends: – Smaller percentage of overall population enrolled in schools (11% in 2010 vs. 14% in 2004) – Diffuse enrollment patterns • 13% of students in same neighborhood as school site • 10% of students live within ½ mile from school site
DISTRIBUTION OF STUDENTS
ENROLLMENT FORECASTS • Based on post-Katrina trends, GCR estimates that enrollment will increase at approximately the same rate as population • By 2020, student enrollment likely to be between 49,000 and 53,000 • Significant growth in areas which were stable prior to Katrina and which have demonstrated consistent population recovery, but which contain significant number of vacant properties – Eastern New Orleans neighborhoods – Gentilly neighborhoods
• Relatively high growth in neighborhoods in which large-scale redevelopment projects are taking place – Public Housing (Central City, Sixth Ward/Treme/Lafitte) – Algiers Naval Station
• Some areas will experience large population growth but relatively few new students (Central Business District/Warehouse District)
ENROLLMENT FORECASTS
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES • City of New Orleans: – Blight reduction – Major institutional facilities – Private residential market
• New Orleans Public Schools – Quality of educational service – Accurate and responsive facilities planning – Broader economic conditions
