Italian – Thai Development Outperform (16E TP Bt7.10)
Company Update
Close Bt6.40
Construction Services March 2, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
Norm. profit below expectation Price Performance (%)
Maintain “Outperform” with revised TP of Bt7.10 We lower ITD’s TP to Bt7.10, vs. Bt8.40 previously, based on P/BV of 2.8x (+1.0SD) after revising earnings down owing to weaker‐than‐expected earnings in 2015. Nevertheless, we maintain our “Outperform” rating for ITD thanks to the potential benefit from public infrastructure investment over the next two years. Reported normalized loss in 4Q15 ITD reported a net profit of Bt9mn in 4Q15, including Bt41mn FX gain and Bt176mn extra gain, mainly from asset revaluation. Stripping out extra items, ITD’s earnings turned to a normalized loss of Bt208mn, weakening both YoY and QoQ, owing to a gross margin (GPM) decline and an SG&A expense increase. In 4Q15, ITD delivered revenue of Bt13.9bn, +11% YoY and 3% QoQ. Meanwhile, its GPM fell to 8.5%, vs. 9.8% in 4Q14 and 10.4% in 3Q15, likely owing to cost adjustments for domestic projects that finished construction, especially the Purple Line mass transit and some track strengthening projects.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.156
0.169
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐87.2%
‐52.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
ITD.BK/ITD TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
5,279.84
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
34.00/948.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
32.00/4.34
52 week High / Low (Bt)
9.40/6.15
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
83,750.00
NVDR (%)
2.51
Estimated free float (%)
70.25
Beta
1.68
URL
www.itd.co.th
CGR
Slight normalized profit in 2015 For 2015, ITD reported a net loss of Bt362mn, including a net extra loss of Bt445mn from an allowance for doubtful accounts (‐Bt600mn) and asset revaluation (Bt155mn). Stripping out extra items, ITD delivered normalized profit of only Bt96mn, below our expectation of Bt179mn from a lower‐than‐expected GPM. Backlog stood at Bt264bn in 2015 We estimate that ITD’s backlog as of 2015 stood at Bt264bn, consisting of Bt149bn for concession projects (slow construction progress) and Bt115bn for regular projects, which will support revenue over the next two years. Around 40% of ITD’s major backlog (regular projects) is transport‐related infrastructure projects, followed by mining (34%) and buildings projects (16%). In 2015, ITD signed additional contracts worth around Bt44bn, in line with our expectation. Lower earnings projection We lower ITD’s net profit in 2016E to Bt122mn, vs. Bt257mn previously expected, owing to lower‐than‐expected earnings in 2015. We maintain our net profit estimate of Bt412mn in 2017E. We assigned additional orders of Bt65bn each year for ITD with a GPM of 8.5% for both years. Financials and Valuation
Anti‐corruption
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FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) Norm. ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 43,913 907 0.19 832 0.17 (14.57) 0.00 2.38 2013 37.39 11.61 2.69 0.00 8.25 228.46
2014 47,493 522 0.10 235 0.04 (73.97) 0.00 2.65 2014 143.65 13.85 2.42 0.00 1.84 205.50
2015 51,297 (362) (0.07) 96 0.02 (59.40) 0.00 2.52 2015 353.79 13.88 2.54 0.00 0.70 231.48
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2016E 54,155 122 0.02 122 0.02 27.81 0.00 2.55 2016E 276.70 12.64 2.51 0.00 0.91 207.83
2017E 60,626 412 0.08 412 0.08 237.91 0.00 2.62 2017E 82.07 11.16 2.44 0.00 3.02 192.65
Figure 1: 4Q15 earnings review Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit SG&A expenses EBITDA Interest expenses Other income Income tax Fx gain (loss) Other extra items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Norm. Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt/equity (x) BVPS (Bt) Norm. ROE (%)
4Q14 12,527 1,224 (788) 946 (695) 305 (167) (6) 46 (89) 101 (69) (109) (0.01)
3Q15 13,545 1,412 (556) 1,410 (660) 59 (135) 21 ‐ 33 18 190 169 0.04
4Q15 13,883 1,179 (797) 882 (642) 107 (48) 41 176 105 (111) 9 (208) 0.00
% YoY 10.8 (3.7) 1.1 (6.7) (7.5) (64.9) (71.1) n.m. n.m. n.m. (209.4) n.m. 90.7 n.m.
% QoQ 2.5 (16.5) 43.2 (37.4) (2.7) 82.3 (64.3) n.m. n.m. 221.0 (716.6) (95.3) (223.1) (95.3)
2014 47,973 4,355 (2,356) 4,012 (2,518) 820 (315) 150 137 107 143 522 235 0.11
2015 51,297 4,409 (2,453) 4,156 (2,589) 405 11 (12) (445) 188 125 (362) 96 (0.07)
9.8 7.6 (0.9) 1.0 0.6 2.2 2.6 (3.3)
10.4 10.4 1.2 1.1 1.3 2.3 2.6 4.9
8.5 6.4 (1.5) 1.1 0.6 2.5 2.5 (6.1)
9.1 8.4 0.5 1.0 0.8 2.0 2.6 1.8
8.6 8.1 0.2 1.1 0.8 2.3 2.5 0.7
% YoY 6.9 1.2 4.1 3.6 2.8 (50.6) n.m. ‐ ‐ 76.1 (12.8) (169.3) (59.4) (163.1)
Source: ITD, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: ITD’s P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 5.0 4.0 +1.5 S.D. 3.0
+1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg.
2.0 -0.5 S.D. 1.0
Feb-16
Jul-14
Apr-15
Sep-13
Jan-12
Nov-12
Mar-11
Jul-09
Oct-08
Feb-07
Dec-07
Jun-05
Apr-06
Oct-03
Aug-04
Jan-03
May-10
-1 S.D.
0.0
2016E +2.0SD +1.5SD +1.0SD +0.5SD average ‐0.5SD ‐1.0SD
P/BV (x) 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2
Implied market price (Bt) 9.18 8.16 7.14 6.12 5.10 4.08 3.06
Upside/Downside vs. current market price (%) 43.44 27.50 11.56 (4.38) (20.31) (36.25) (52.19)
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TKN.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
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KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
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Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
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4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
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T.Namuang, A.Muang,
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Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
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Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
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