north carolina nc
NORTH CAROLINA
NC
2015 Estimated Uninsured Rate of 18 to 64 year olds: 2013 Estimated Uninsured Rate of 18 to 64 year olds: Decrease from 2013 to 2015:
14.6% 18.2% 3.6%
Before the first Affordable Care Act enrollment period began, Enroll America and Civis Analytics used sophisticated data targeting techniques to create a model of the uninsured population in America. Over the last three years, this model has proven to be timely and accurate, and has played a critical role in our ability to understand who and where the uninsured are and get them the help they need to enroll in coverage. This year, the model has been updated and was used to estimate insurance status for over 180 million non-elderly adult Americans. Grouping individual-level estimates by geography, race, age, gender, and other characteristics enables us to understand the landscape of the uninsured population across the country. Here we provide a detailed look at the uninsured population in North Carolina, put into context by plan selection data from HHS and a comparison with nationwide uninsured rates. All uninsured rates listed in this document are based on the Enroll America/Civis Analytics uninsured model. Chart 1: North Carolina Uninsured Rates for 2013 and 2015 of Key Demographic Groups
Overall
Uninsured Rate
30
Race 25
20 15 10 5
Age
Gender 29
25
24
22 18
18
16
16
15 11
20
20 17
14
16
Asian
Male
13
18
17 14
17
14
13
13
2013 12
2015
0 National
North Carolina
Black
White
Hispanic
Quick Summary
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
State Map: 2015 Uninsured Rates by County
● The current uninsured rate in North Carolina is 15%. This has decreased by 4% since 2013 prior to the first open enrollment period. ● 22% of Hispanics in North Carolina are uninsured, 18% of AfricanAmericans are uninsured and 20% of young adults (ages 18-34) are uninsured. Targeting Recommendations ● Geographic - More uninsured people live in Mecklenburg County (9% of the uninsured population) and Wake County (7% of the uninsured population) than any other county. ● Geographic - The counties with the highest uninsured rates currently are Robeson County (33%), Swain County (24%), Vance County (21%) and Richmond County (21%).
Map Scale: Uninsured Rates per County
10%
5%
● Demographic - Hispanic men ages 18 to 34 (28%) have the highest 2015 uninsured rates, followed by African American men ages 18 to 34 (27%) and Hispanic women ages 18 to 34 (24%).
15%
20%
Table 1: Distribution of Uninsured Population by Demographic Groups in Quick Summary Race [1] Distribution of Uninsured Population, Ages 18 to 64 % 2013 Uninsured Population in North Carolina % 2015 Uninsured Population in North Carolina Change from 2013 to 2015
Gender
Age
Black
White
Hispanic
Asian
Male
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
31.3% 28.8% -2.5%
61.7% 64.1% 2.4%
5.6% 5.6% 0.0%
1.3% 1.5% 0.2%
50.1% 50.1% 0.0%
49.9% 49.9% 0.0%
36.1% 38.3% 2.2%
20.7% 17.5% -3.2%
25.6% 24.7% -0.9%
17.6% 19.4% 1.8%
Table 2: 2015 Uninsured Rates in Most Populous Counties Total Top 10 Most Populous Counties, Ordered by Population Size ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Mecklenburg County Wake County Guilford County Forsyth County Cumberland County Durham County Buncombe County New Hanover County Union County Gaston County
Race
Gender
Age
Percent
2015 Uninsured Rate
Black
White
Hispanic
Asian
Male
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
12% 10% 14% 13% 16% 14% 14% 14% 11% 15%
15% 14% 18% 18% 18% 17% 19% 19% 15% 20%
10% 8% 11% 11% 15% 12% 14% 13% 10% 14%
17% 17% 21% 21% 21% 21% 22% 21% 19% 22%
13% 9% 16% 15% 17% 16% 16% 16% 10% 18%
13% 10% 15% 14% 18% 16% 15% 15% 11% 16%
11% 9% 13% 12% 15% 13% 13% 13% 10% 15%
17% 15% 20% 19% 22% 20% 20% 19% 16% 22%
10% 8% 12% 12% 15% 12% 13% 12% 9% 14%
10% 8% 12% 12% 14% 12% 13% 12% 9% 14%
9% 7% 10% 10% 13% 10% 11% 10% 9% 13%
Page 1 of 2 - North Carolina State Snapshot - Enroll America - October 2015
% of NC Uninsured Population 9% 7% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%
www.enrollamerica.org
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NORTH CAROLINA
NC
OE2 Plan Selection Data from Health and Human Services
Remaining Uninsured Estimates from June 2015 Kaiser Family Foundation Study
Total OE2 Plan Selections in North Carolina: [2] Effectuated OE2 Plan Selections: [3] % Effectuated of Total Plan Selections Total plans with Advanced Premium Tax Credit (APTC): % APTC of Effectuated Plans
560,357 492,014 88% 458,738 93%
Estimated Number of Remaining Uninsured in North Carolina: [4] % Medicaid Eligible of Remaining Uninsured % Tax Credit Eligible of Remaining Uninsured % Ineligible for Financial Assistance of Remaining Uninsured [5] % Consumers in Coverage Gap of Remaining Uninsured
1,138,000 13% 25% 40% 21%
Chart 2: Distribution of Total Plan Selections by Provided Age and Race [6,7] Distribution of Plan Selections by Age 0%
Distribution of Plan Selections by Race [6]
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
North Carolina Mecklenburg County Wake County Guilford County Forsyth County Cumberland County Durham County Buncombe County New Hanover County Union County Gaston County 18-25
26-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
White
Latino
Black
Asian
Other
National Map: 2015 Uninsured Rates by County
● In 2013 before the first open enrollment period, North Carolina's uninsured rate of 18.2% was 1.8% greater than the national uninsured rate. ● In 2015, North Carolina's uninsured rate of 14.6% is 3.9% greater than the current national uninsured rate.
Uninsured Rate
State Comparison with National Uninsured Rate 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
18.2 16.4 14.6
2013
10.7
2015
National
North Carolina
Map Scale: Uninsured Rates per County
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Footnotes [1] Civis Analytics uses a similar scoring method to assign most likely race to consumers which explains why the race distribution adds up to 100%. [2] March 10, 2015 ASPE Issue Brief with total plan selections by state from from November 15, 2015 to February 22, 2015. Full memo can be found here: http://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/83656/ib_2015mar_enrollment.pdf [3] March 31, 2015 Effectuated Enrollment Snapshot released by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on June 2, 2015. This includes all new and renewing consumers during the second open enrollment period from November 15, 2015 to February 22, 2015. Additional information can be found at: https://www.cms.gov/Newsroom/MediaReleaseDatabase/Fact-sheets/2015-Factsheets-items/2015-06-02.html [4] Estimates of Eligibility for ACA Coverage among the Uninsured released by the Kaiser Family Foundation on June 1, 2015. Additional data and methodology can be found at: http://kff.org/uninsured/issue-brief/new-estimates-of-eligibility-for-aca-coverage-among-the-uninsured/ [5] Ineligible for Financial Assistance is due to Income, ESI Offer, or Citizenship. [6] HHS released county level plan selection data broken down by age and race, among other groupings. These plan selections include all new and renewing consumers during the second open enrollment period. The full data file can be found at: http://aspe.hhs.gov/basic-report/2015-plan-selections-county-health-insurance-marketplace [7] Enrollments for which race is unknown was not included in this graphic. This varies between states, but 36% of plan selections had an unknown race. Other includes American Indian/Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander and Multiracial.
Additional Enroll America Research, Blogs and Maps can be found at : https://www.enrollamerica.org/research-maps/ Page 2 of 2 - North Carolina State Snapshot - Enroll America - October 2015
www.enrollamerica.org
NC
2015 Estimated Uninsured Rate of 18 to 64 year olds: 2013 Estimated Uninsured Rate of 18 to 64 year olds: Decrease from 2013 to 2015:
14.6% 18.2% 3.6%
Before the first Affordable Care Act enrollment period began, Enroll America and Civis Analytics used sophisticated data targeting techniques to create a model of the uninsured population in America. Over the last three years, this model has proven to be timely and accurate, and has played a critical role in our ability to understand who and where the uninsured are and get them the help they need to enroll in coverage. This year, the model has been updated and was used to estimate insurance status for over 180 million non-elderly adult Americans. Grouping individual-level estimates by geography, race, age, gender, and other characteristics enables us to understand the landscape of the uninsured population across the country. Here we provide a detailed look at the uninsured population in North Carolina, put into context by plan selection data from HHS and a comparison with nationwide uninsured rates. All uninsured rates listed in this document are based on the Enroll America/Civis Analytics uninsured model. Chart 1: North Carolina Uninsured Rates for 2013 and 2015 of Key Demographic Groups
Overall
Uninsured Rate
30
Race 25
20 15 10 5
Age
Gender 29
25
24
22 18
18
16
16
15 11
20
20 17
14
16
Asian
Male
13
18
17 14
17
14
13
13
2013 12
2015
0 National
North Carolina
Black
White
Hispanic
Quick Summary
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
State Map: 2015 Uninsured Rates by County
● The current uninsured rate in North Carolina is 15%. This has decreased by 4% since 2013 prior to the first open enrollment period. ● 22% of Hispanics in North Carolina are uninsured, 18% of AfricanAmericans are uninsured and 20% of young adults (ages 18-34) are uninsured. Targeting Recommendations ● Geographic - More uninsured people live in Mecklenburg County (9% of the uninsured population) and Wake County (7% of the uninsured population) than any other county. ● Geographic - The counties with the highest uninsured rates currently are Robeson County (33%), Swain County (24%), Vance County (21%) and Richmond County (21%).
Map Scale: Uninsured Rates per County
10%
5%
● Demographic - Hispanic men ages 18 to 34 (28%) have the highest 2015 uninsured rates, followed by African American men ages 18 to 34 (27%) and Hispanic women ages 18 to 34 (24%).
15%
20%
Table 1: Distribution of Uninsured Population by Demographic Groups in Quick Summary Race [1] Distribution of Uninsured Population, Ages 18 to 64 % 2013 Uninsured Population in North Carolina % 2015 Uninsured Population in North Carolina Change from 2013 to 2015
Gender
Age
Black
White
Hispanic
Asian
Male
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
31.3% 28.8% -2.5%
61.7% 64.1% 2.4%
5.6% 5.6% 0.0%
1.3% 1.5% 0.2%
50.1% 50.1% 0.0%
49.9% 49.9% 0.0%
36.1% 38.3% 2.2%
20.7% 17.5% -3.2%
25.6% 24.7% -0.9%
17.6% 19.4% 1.8%
Table 2: 2015 Uninsured Rates in Most Populous Counties Total Top 10 Most Populous Counties, Ordered by Population Size ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Mecklenburg County Wake County Guilford County Forsyth County Cumberland County Durham County Buncombe County New Hanover County Union County Gaston County
Race
Gender
Age
Percent
2015 Uninsured Rate
Black
White
Hispanic
Asian
Male
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
12% 10% 14% 13% 16% 14% 14% 14% 11% 15%
15% 14% 18% 18% 18% 17% 19% 19% 15% 20%
10% 8% 11% 11% 15% 12% 14% 13% 10% 14%
17% 17% 21% 21% 21% 21% 22% 21% 19% 22%
13% 9% 16% 15% 17% 16% 16% 16% 10% 18%
13% 10% 15% 14% 18% 16% 15% 15% 11% 16%
11% 9% 13% 12% 15% 13% 13% 13% 10% 15%
17% 15% 20% 19% 22% 20% 20% 19% 16% 22%
10% 8% 12% 12% 15% 12% 13% 12% 9% 14%
10% 8% 12% 12% 14% 12% 13% 12% 9% 14%
9% 7% 10% 10% 13% 10% 11% 10% 9% 13%
Page 1 of 2 - North Carolina State Snapshot - Enroll America - October 2015
% of NC Uninsured Population 9% 7% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%
www.enrollamerica.org
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NORTH CAROLINA
NC
OE2 Plan Selection Data from Health and Human Services
Remaining Uninsured Estimates from June 2015 Kaiser Family Foundation Study
Total OE2 Plan Selections in North Carolina: [2] Effectuated OE2 Plan Selections: [3] % Effectuated of Total Plan Selections Total plans with Advanced Premium Tax Credit (APTC): % APTC of Effectuated Plans
560,357 492,014 88% 458,738 93%
Estimated Number of Remaining Uninsured in North Carolina: [4] % Medicaid Eligible of Remaining Uninsured % Tax Credit Eligible of Remaining Uninsured % Ineligible for Financial Assistance of Remaining Uninsured [5] % Consumers in Coverage Gap of Remaining Uninsured
1,138,000 13% 25% 40% 21%
Chart 2: Distribution of Total Plan Selections by Provided Age and Race [6,7] Distribution of Plan Selections by Age 0%
Distribution of Plan Selections by Race [6]
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
North Carolina Mecklenburg County Wake County Guilford County Forsyth County Cumberland County Durham County Buncombe County New Hanover County Union County Gaston County 18-25
26-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
White
Latino
Black
Asian
Other
National Map: 2015 Uninsured Rates by County
● In 2013 before the first open enrollment period, North Carolina's uninsured rate of 18.2% was 1.8% greater than the national uninsured rate. ● In 2015, North Carolina's uninsured rate of 14.6% is 3.9% greater than the current national uninsured rate.
Uninsured Rate
State Comparison with National Uninsured Rate 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
18.2 16.4 14.6
2013
10.7
2015
National
North Carolina
Map Scale: Uninsured Rates per County
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Footnotes [1] Civis Analytics uses a similar scoring method to assign most likely race to consumers which explains why the race distribution adds up to 100%. [2] March 10, 2015 ASPE Issue Brief with total plan selections by state from from November 15, 2015 to February 22, 2015. Full memo can be found here: http://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/83656/ib_2015mar_enrollment.pdf [3] March 31, 2015 Effectuated Enrollment Snapshot released by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on June 2, 2015. This includes all new and renewing consumers during the second open enrollment period from November 15, 2015 to February 22, 2015. Additional information can be found at: https://www.cms.gov/Newsroom/MediaReleaseDatabase/Fact-sheets/2015-Factsheets-items/2015-06-02.html [4] Estimates of Eligibility for ACA Coverage among the Uninsured released by the Kaiser Family Foundation on June 1, 2015. Additional data and methodology can be found at: http://kff.org/uninsured/issue-brief/new-estimates-of-eligibility-for-aca-coverage-among-the-uninsured/ [5] Ineligible for Financial Assistance is due to Income, ESI Offer, or Citizenship. [6] HHS released county level plan selection data broken down by age and race, among other groupings. These plan selections include all new and renewing consumers during the second open enrollment period. The full data file can be found at: http://aspe.hhs.gov/basic-report/2015-plan-selections-county-health-insurance-marketplace [7] Enrollments for which race is unknown was not included in this graphic. This varies between states, but 36% of plan selections had an unknown race. Other includes American Indian/Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander and Multiracial.
Additional Enroll America Research, Blogs and Maps can be found at : https://www.enrollamerica.org/research-maps/ Page 2 of 2 - North Carolina State Snapshot - Enroll America - October 2015
www.enrollamerica.org
