NORWAY
NORWAY
1899 Preston White Drive, Reston, Virginia 20191 (703) 264-7200 © PRIMIR/NPES 2008
INTRODUCTION In today’s global business, print faces constant change and multinational challenges. In order to react intelligently and be proactive printing industry business leaders urgently need worldwide data to reference when making internationally-based business decisions. PRIMIR recently released a series of three reports on the “World Wide Market for Print.” Pira International was commissioned to investigate the key global print markets. This study identified 51 country markets that make up 99% of the global commercial printing industry. The series of reports detail social and economic climate in each region, demographic profiles, advertising trends, internet usage/adoption, print markets and applications, print process share, and market sizing for presses, equipment, consumables and paper. Forecasts are provided through 2011. The report that follows is a summary of data and information from all three reports pertaining to this specific country. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the data is presented in U.S. Dollars, taking into account forecast rates for GDP growth and inflation, constant 2006 exchange rates have been applied. The final report includes a database where statistics are provided for both current and constant U.S. Dollars as well as in local currency (both current and constant).
NORWAY - OVERVIEW Located in the north of Europe, Norway borders on Sweden and Finland and has an extensive coastline to the Arctic Ocean and the North Sea. With an area of 323,878 square kilometers (125,050 square miles) Norway is smaller than its neighbor, Sweden. Its current population is approximately 4.6 million, about half that of Sweden. Literacy levels are very high at around 100%, with 100% of the population completing primary level education and 96% completing secondary level education in 2003. Life expectancy is 77.8 years for men and 82.5 for women. Overall GDP in 2006 is projected at US$305 billion, with GDP per capita at US$65,717, the highest in the world of the major nations.
Norway is a hereditary constitutional monarchy. It has been independent from Sweden since 1905, however its constitution dates back to 1814. The role of the King is mainly ceremonial; his powers are generally executed by the Council of 1
Ministers, which is made up of the prime minister and other government ministers. There is a unicameral parliament called the Storting, which has 169 members who are elected for a term of four years using a system of proportional representation. The Storting has two chambers, the Odelsting and the Lagting, which may meet separately or jointly depending on the issue. The current monarch is King Harald V and the Prime Minister is Jens Stoltenberg of the Labor Party, which won 35% of the seats in the parliament in the September 2005 election.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS The population of Norway is estimated at 4.6 million, 49.7% of whom are male and 50.3% female. Population projections over the coming years show an expected increase in the populace of approximately 815,000 in the next 45 years, bringing the number of Norwegian inhabitants up to 5.44 million by 2050. This represents an increase of 17.7% over this time. The median age of the population today is 38.2 years and this is forecast to increase to 43.8 by 2050; 20% of the population is currently over the age of 60 and this is forecast to increase to 30% by 2050.
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Figure 1 Norway: Long-term Demographic Trends by Age Group, 2000-2050 0-14
15-64
65+
Total population
70
6,000 5,435
60
5,080
5,000
4,000
% population
62.3 64.7 40
59.4 3,000
30
24.3 20.5
20.0 20
15.3
17.2
2,000 16.3
Total population ('000s)
4,502
50
1,000
10 0
0 2000
2025
2050
Source: United Nations
ECONOMIC TRENDS Overall GDP in 2006 is projected at US$305 billion, with GDP growth of 2.2% versus 2.3% in 2005 and a figure of 2.6% forecast for 2007. Inflation levels are high, at 8.5% in 2005 although this is primarily down to the effects of Norway’s status as an oil producer. The world’s third largest oil exporter, its economy was transformed in the 1970s with the discovery of major oil and gas reserves, which attracted a huge amount of foreign investment capital. This led to increasing wages and higher production costs. In addition Norway significantly expanded its welfare system. Norway’s strong economic performance can also be attributed to sound fiscal and monetary planning by the government, including its inflation targeting framework and policies to preserve oil revenue for future generations.
The outlook for this year is promising. Inflation is being brought under control, there is robust growth, low unemployment and strong business and consumer confidence. Potential risks and threats for economic performance include
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possible inflation increases, a drop in world oil prices, global economic problems and rising pension costs. However, the prognosis remains good. It should be noted that although Norway elected not to join the European Union, it tends to adopt and implement most EU directives.
Table 1 Norway: Key Economic Indicators, 2003-2007 Indicator Population ('000s) Exchange rate (=US$1) Purchasing power parity (=US$1) GDP (local currency, millions, current prices) GDP (local currency, millions, constant 2000 prices) GDP (current, US$ million) GDP, PPP (current, US$ million) GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita, PPP (US$) GDP growth (%) GDP deflator (%) Consumer price index (2000=100) Imports (US$ million) Exports (US$ million)
2003 4,572 7.08 8.89 1,576,746
2004 4,596 6.74 9.17 1,716,931
2005 4,620 6.44 9.61 1,906,062
2006p 4,642 6.44 9.82 2,063,649
2007f 4,664 6.44 10.12 2,188,088
1,542,115
1,589,920
1,626,489
1,662,271
1,705,490
222,892 174,854 48,747 38,241 1.1 2.6 106.9 39,486 67,479
255,106 184,672 55,504 40,180 3.1 5.6 107.4 48,085 81,750
296,017 195,130 64,073 42,236 2.3 8.5 109.1 54,792 101,937
305,045 205,613 65,717 44,296 2.2 6.0 115.6 n/a n/a
317,329 212,017 68,042 45,461 2.6 3.4 119.5 n/a n/a
Note: p=projected; f=forecast Source: Pira International, Ltd calculations from the United Nations (population data), International Monetary Fund (economic data)
THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT There were 78 daily newspapers in print in Norway in 2004, eight of which are nationals and 70 of which are regional/local. Total circulation was 2.4 million, down 2.9% from 2000. The top selling daily is Verdens Gang which has a circulation of 365,000, followed by Aftenposten morgen with a circulation of 250,000. In 2004 newspaper advertising revenue was US$689.1 million.
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In 2004 there were 235 business magazine titles in Norway and 87 consumer titles, a decrease of 1.9% compared to 2001. There were 150 business magazine publishers in 2004, including Vanebo Forlag and Skarland Press. Revenue from magazine advertising was US$ 191.3 million, while total print advertising expenditure in Norway was at US$1,356 million in 2004, 27.5% up on 1995. Internet penetration meanwhile currently stands at 68% of the population, up from 49% in 2000. Broadband penetration is now in the order of 22%.
Table 2 Norway: Advertising and Print Media Trends, 2000-2004 Advertising media Above-the-line advertising (media sales) Total advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper advertising expenditure (US$ million) Magazine advertising expenditure (US$ million) Outdoor advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print's share of advertising expenditure (%) Internet advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper trends Number of newspaper titles Newspaper circulation ('000s) Magazine trends Number of consumer titles Number of business-to-business titles
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1,081.2 760.9 578.8 158.2 23.9 70.4 n/a
995.0 699.1 521.9 153.7 23.5 70.3 n/a
1,048.7 716.8 529.7 157.6 29.5 68.4 n/a
1,225.1 832.8 613.6 180.2 39.0 68.0 n/a
1,356.8 925.0 689.1 191.3 44.6 68.2 n/a
154 2,943
152 2,897
158 2,919
162 2,891
167 2,855
n/a 250
78 250
79 250
83 240
87 235
Source: World Advertising Trends, World Press Trends, World Magazine Trends
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Figure 2 Norway: Trends in Internet Usage, 2000-2005 Internet users (%)
Broadband penetration (%)
70
68.0 63.6 59.6
60
% population
50
55.8 48.9
52.2
40 30 21.9 20
14.8
10
8.0 4.2
1.9 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Pira International Ltd calculations from Internetworldstats.com (www.Internetworldstats.com); OECD (broadband penetration)
PRINT MARKET TRENDS The Norwegian print market was valued at NOK26.7 billion (US$4.15 billion) in 2005, projected to grow by 3.1% in absolute terms in 2006 and by 2.2% in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation. During the period 2001-2006, the market grew at an average annual rate of 0.5% in absolute terms but declined 2.5% in real terms.
Table 3 Norway: Print Market Trends, 2001-2006
NOK million, current prices NOK million, constant 2005 prices US$ million, current prices
2001
2005
2006p
26,811.3 31,053.8
26,711.4 26,711.4
$2,981.8
$4,147.7
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
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27,538.5 27,311.4
% change 20052006p 3.1 2.2
CAGR (%) 20012006p 0.5 -2.5
$4,276.2
3.1
7.5
Heatset web offset represents the single largest segment of the Norwegian market across print processes, with printing output valued at NOK6.16 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 3% in absolute terms in 2006. Sheetfed is the next largest component of offset litho printing with output at NOK5.88 billion and coldset web offset losing market share. The fastest growing areas of the market are Electrophotography and inkjet at NOK1.49 billion and NOK696 million respectively in 2005, with letterpress losing market share.
Table 4 Norway: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (NOK million, current prices) Process
Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
% change 2005-2006p
17,952.3 6,104.6 11,847.7 5,644.4 6,203.3 2,973.0 3,128.1 868.4 102.3 556.4 463.8 767.0 26,811.3
17,014.8 5,884.5 11,130.3 4,972.6 6,157.7 2,586.3 3,344.9 804.3 76.7 1,487.7 696.1 700.7 26,711.4
17,424.3 6,043.7 11,380.6 5,040.0 6,340.6 2,615.6 3,458.2 828.7 74.1 1,572.6 776.7 788.3 27,538.5
2.4 2.7 2.2 1.4 3.0 1.1 3.4 3.0 -3.4 5.7 11.6 12.5 3.1
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
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CAGR (%) 20012006p -0.6 -0.2 -0.8 -2.2 0.4 -2.5 2.0 -0.9 -6.3 23.1 10.9 0.6 0.5
Table 5 Norway: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
$1,996.5 678.9 1,317.6 627.7 689.9 330.6 347.9 96.6 11.4 61.9 51.6 85.3 $2,981.8
$2,642.0 913.7 1,728.3 772.1 956.2 401.6 519.4 124.9 11.9 231.0 108.1 108.8 $4,147.7
$2,705.7 938.5 1,767.2 782.6 984.6 406.1 537.0 128.7 11.5 244.2 120.6 122.4 $4,276.2
% change 2005-2006p 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.4 3.0 1.1 3.4 3.0 -3.4 5.7 11.6 12.5 3.1
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 6.3 6.7 6.0 4.5 7.4 4.2 9.1 5.9 0.2 31.6 18.5 7.5 7.5
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Across end-use areas, packaging represents the single largest product sector with sales of NOK5.57 billion in 2005. Other key sectors include newspapers (NOK3.86 billion), magazines (NOK3.78 billion) and books (NOK1.80 billion).
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Table 6 Norway: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (NOK million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p 1,817.9 582.8 78.4 4,051.6 3,761.0 777.6 758.8
% change 2005-2006p 0.7 5.6 0.8 7.3 -2.7 10.2 8.7
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p -1.1 -1.1 -3.3 1.6 -2.7 2.7 1.3
1,922.3 615.7 92.9 3,751.4 4,319.1 681.6 712.7
1,804.8 552.2 77.8 3,776.1 3,863.9 705.8 697.9
224.0 56.5
235.3 56.9
260.2 62.3
10.6 9.5
3.0 2.0
272.6 196.3 617.6 5,178.6 2,413.7 934.2 1,830.6 1,000.9 7,169.2 26,811.3
264.7 179.3 578.9 5,573.9 2,174.9 904.6 2,494.3 1,075.9 7,268.1 26,711.4
287.3 186.7 598.5 6,002.5 2,233.1 944.6 2,824.8 1,148.9 7,164.0 27,538.5
8.5 4.1 3.4 7.7 2.7 4.4 13.3 6.8 -1.4 3.1
1.1 -1.0 -0.6 3.0 -1.5 0.2 9.1 2.8 0.0 0.5
5,178.6 2,550.1 2,628.5
5,573.9 2,994.7 2,579.2
6,002.5 3,277.0 2,725.5
7.7 9.4 5.7
3.0 5.1 0.7
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 7 Norway: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p $282.3 90.5 12.2 629.1 584.0 120.8 117.8
% change 2005-2006p 0.7 5.6 0.7 7.3 -2.7 10.2 8.7
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 5.7 5.7 3.4 8.6 4.0 9.8 8.2
$213.8 68.5 10.3 417.2 480.3 75.8 79.3
$280.3 85.7 12.1 586.4 600.0 109.6 108.4
24.9 6.3
36.5 8.8
40.4 9.7
10.6 10.1
10.1 9.0
30.3 21.8 68.7 575.9 268.4 103.9 203.6 111.3 797.3 $2,981.8
41.1 27.8 89.9 865.5 337.7 140.5 387.3 167.1 1,128.6 $4,147.7
44.6 29.0 93.0 932.1 346.8 146.6 438.7 178.4 1,112.5 $4,276.2
8.6 4.4 3.4 7.7 2.7 4.4 13.3 6.8 -1.4 3.1
8.1 5.9 6.2 10.1 5.3 7.1 16.6 9.9 6.9 7.5
$575.9 283.6 292.3
$865.5 465.0 400.5
$932.1 508.8 423.3
7.7 9.4 5.7
10.1 12.4 7.7
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
MACHINERY, INK, CONSUMABLES AND SUBSTRATES Given the speed of product development and the rapid pace of technology transfer, most of the key developments for printing presses and processes over the next five years will be seen in all of the main regions of the world, despite the fact that the rate of adoption varies between developed and developing regions.
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Table 8 Norway: Printing Machinery (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
35.3 16.1 19.2 7.0 11.3 5.2 0.5 7.0 6.5 20.9 10.6
% change 2005-06 -6.3 -6.6 -3.7 -8.6 4.6 -10.4 -16.1 9.7 10.0 0.4 0.6
0.4 10.1 10.1 149.5
-19.5 1.6 -4.8 -2.8
2006
35.1 15.5 20.0 6.6 12.0 4.8 0.3 9.8 11.3 21.4 11.5
% change 2006-11 -0.6 -3.6 4.3 -4.7 6.5 -7.1 -27.6 40.6 72.9 2.6 8.9
0.3 11.2 10.8 159.2
-33.3 10.7 7.1 6.5
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 9 Norway: Printing Machinery (NOK million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
226.6 103.2 123.0 44.7 72.4 33.1 3.0 44.8 41.9 133.9 67.8
% change 2005-06 -6.7 -7.0 -4.1 -9.0 4.1 -10.8 -16.4 9.3 9.5 0.0 0.2
2.7 65.1 64.5 958.8
-19.9 1.2 -5.2 -3.2
2006
Source: Pira International Ltd
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225.3 99.5 128.2 42.6 77.1 30.8 2.1 62.9 72.4 137.4 73.9
% change 2006-11 -0.6 -3.6 4.3 -4.7 6.5 -7.1 -27.6 40.6 72.9 2.6 8.9
1.8 72.0 69.1 1,021.2
-33.3 10.7 7.1 6.5
2011
Table 10 Norway: Printing Consumables (US$ million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
8.2
% change 2005-06 -7.1
29.1 19.1 10.0 1.7 2.7 41.8
27.5 30.0 23.1 15.7 4.1 16.8
2006
5.5
% change 2006-11 -33.1
42.4 31.9 10.5 1.9 3.1 52.9
45.8 67.3 4.7 10.1 13.1 26.7
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 11 Norway: Printing Consumables (NOK million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
52.7
% change 2005-06 -7.5
186.6 122.5 64.1 11.2 17.4 267.9
27.0 29.4 22.6 15.3 3.7 16.3
2006
35.3
% change 2006-11 -33.1
272.0 204.9 67.1 12.3 19.7 339.3
45.8 67.3 4.7 10.1 13.1 26.7
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 12 Norway: Printing Inks (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 36.1 30.1 37.9 15.7 20.7 5.0 0.4 8.3 4.1 4.1 162.4
% change 2005-06 -2.2 -3.5 -1.9 -3.7 -1.5 -1.9 -8.0 0.7 6.3 7.1 -1.9
Source: Pira International Ltd
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2011 35.7 26.9 38.7 13.8 22.8 4.7 0.3 23.3 6.8 4.2 177.3
% change 2006-11 -1.1 -10.8 2.1 -12.1 10.4 -4.7 -27.7 182.2 67.2 2.7 9.2
Table 13 Norway: Printing Inks (NOK million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 231.6 193.2 243.0 100.6 132.7 31.8 2.8 53.0 26.1 26.5 1,041.4
% change 2005-06 -2.6 -3.9 -2.3 -4.1 -1.9 -2.3 -8.4 0.3 5.8 6.7 -2.3
2011 229.0 172.3 248.1 88.4 146.5 30.3 2.1 149.7 43.7 27.2 1,137.2
% change 2006-11 -1.1 -10.8 2.1 -12.1 10.4 -4.7 -27.7 182.2 67.2 2.7 9.2
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 14 Norway: Printing Substrates (US$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
76.2 170.0 195.7 131.0 214.4
% change 2005-06 -2.2 0.4 -1.0 -0.3 -1.8
314.1 56.2 284.4 146.1 194.9 1,783.1
2006
Source: Pira International Ltd
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69.7 172.8 188.2 129.6 199.3
% change 2006-11 -8.6 1.6 -3.8 -1.1 -7.0
0.3 -0.5 3.8 3.8
347.3 55.2 347.1 178.2
10.6 -1.8 22.0 22.0
-0.5 0.5
191.4 1,878.8
-1.8 5.4
2011
Table 15 Norway: Printing Substrates (NOK million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
489.0 1,090.4 1,255.3 840.1 1,374.8
% change 2005-06 -2.6 0.0 -1.4 -0.7 -2.2
2,014.3 360.3 1,824.2 936.8 1,250.2 11,435.4
2006
446.9 1,107.9 1,207.0 831.3 1,278.4
% change 2006-11 -8.6 1.6 -3.8 -1.1 -7.0
-0.1 -0.9 3.4 3.4
2,227.6 353.7 2,225.8 1,143.0
10.6 -1.8 22.0 22.0
-0.9 0.0
1,227.5 12,049.3
-1.8 5.4
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
For more comprehensive information about the global printing industry, please refer to the three PRIMIR reports “World Wide Market for Print” (Phase I, Phase II and Final). Visit http://www.primir.org/past_primir_studies.html for descriptions, tables of contents, and ordering information.
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1899 Preston White Drive, Reston, Virginia 20191 (703) 264-7200 © PRIMIR/NPES 2008
INTRODUCTION In today’s global business, print faces constant change and multinational challenges. In order to react intelligently and be proactive printing industry business leaders urgently need worldwide data to reference when making internationally-based business decisions. PRIMIR recently released a series of three reports on the “World Wide Market for Print.” Pira International was commissioned to investigate the key global print markets. This study identified 51 country markets that make up 99% of the global commercial printing industry. The series of reports detail social and economic climate in each region, demographic profiles, advertising trends, internet usage/adoption, print markets and applications, print process share, and market sizing for presses, equipment, consumables and paper. Forecasts are provided through 2011. The report that follows is a summary of data and information from all three reports pertaining to this specific country. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the data is presented in U.S. Dollars, taking into account forecast rates for GDP growth and inflation, constant 2006 exchange rates have been applied. The final report includes a database where statistics are provided for both current and constant U.S. Dollars as well as in local currency (both current and constant).
NORWAY - OVERVIEW Located in the north of Europe, Norway borders on Sweden and Finland and has an extensive coastline to the Arctic Ocean and the North Sea. With an area of 323,878 square kilometers (125,050 square miles) Norway is smaller than its neighbor, Sweden. Its current population is approximately 4.6 million, about half that of Sweden. Literacy levels are very high at around 100%, with 100% of the population completing primary level education and 96% completing secondary level education in 2003. Life expectancy is 77.8 years for men and 82.5 for women. Overall GDP in 2006 is projected at US$305 billion, with GDP per capita at US$65,717, the highest in the world of the major nations.
Norway is a hereditary constitutional monarchy. It has been independent from Sweden since 1905, however its constitution dates back to 1814. The role of the King is mainly ceremonial; his powers are generally executed by the Council of 1
Ministers, which is made up of the prime minister and other government ministers. There is a unicameral parliament called the Storting, which has 169 members who are elected for a term of four years using a system of proportional representation. The Storting has two chambers, the Odelsting and the Lagting, which may meet separately or jointly depending on the issue. The current monarch is King Harald V and the Prime Minister is Jens Stoltenberg of the Labor Party, which won 35% of the seats in the parliament in the September 2005 election.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS The population of Norway is estimated at 4.6 million, 49.7% of whom are male and 50.3% female. Population projections over the coming years show an expected increase in the populace of approximately 815,000 in the next 45 years, bringing the number of Norwegian inhabitants up to 5.44 million by 2050. This represents an increase of 17.7% over this time. The median age of the population today is 38.2 years and this is forecast to increase to 43.8 by 2050; 20% of the population is currently over the age of 60 and this is forecast to increase to 30% by 2050.
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Figure 1 Norway: Long-term Demographic Trends by Age Group, 2000-2050 0-14
15-64
65+
Total population
70
6,000 5,435
60
5,080
5,000
4,000
% population
62.3 64.7 40
59.4 3,000
30
24.3 20.5
20.0 20
15.3
17.2
2,000 16.3
Total population ('000s)
4,502
50
1,000
10 0
0 2000
2025
2050
Source: United Nations
ECONOMIC TRENDS Overall GDP in 2006 is projected at US$305 billion, with GDP growth of 2.2% versus 2.3% in 2005 and a figure of 2.6% forecast for 2007. Inflation levels are high, at 8.5% in 2005 although this is primarily down to the effects of Norway’s status as an oil producer. The world’s third largest oil exporter, its economy was transformed in the 1970s with the discovery of major oil and gas reserves, which attracted a huge amount of foreign investment capital. This led to increasing wages and higher production costs. In addition Norway significantly expanded its welfare system. Norway’s strong economic performance can also be attributed to sound fiscal and monetary planning by the government, including its inflation targeting framework and policies to preserve oil revenue for future generations.
The outlook for this year is promising. Inflation is being brought under control, there is robust growth, low unemployment and strong business and consumer confidence. Potential risks and threats for economic performance include
3
possible inflation increases, a drop in world oil prices, global economic problems and rising pension costs. However, the prognosis remains good. It should be noted that although Norway elected not to join the European Union, it tends to adopt and implement most EU directives.
Table 1 Norway: Key Economic Indicators, 2003-2007 Indicator Population ('000s) Exchange rate (=US$1) Purchasing power parity (=US$1) GDP (local currency, millions, current prices) GDP (local currency, millions, constant 2000 prices) GDP (current, US$ million) GDP, PPP (current, US$ million) GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita, PPP (US$) GDP growth (%) GDP deflator (%) Consumer price index (2000=100) Imports (US$ million) Exports (US$ million)
2003 4,572 7.08 8.89 1,576,746
2004 4,596 6.74 9.17 1,716,931
2005 4,620 6.44 9.61 1,906,062
2006p 4,642 6.44 9.82 2,063,649
2007f 4,664 6.44 10.12 2,188,088
1,542,115
1,589,920
1,626,489
1,662,271
1,705,490
222,892 174,854 48,747 38,241 1.1 2.6 106.9 39,486 67,479
255,106 184,672 55,504 40,180 3.1 5.6 107.4 48,085 81,750
296,017 195,130 64,073 42,236 2.3 8.5 109.1 54,792 101,937
305,045 205,613 65,717 44,296 2.2 6.0 115.6 n/a n/a
317,329 212,017 68,042 45,461 2.6 3.4 119.5 n/a n/a
Note: p=projected; f=forecast Source: Pira International, Ltd calculations from the United Nations (population data), International Monetary Fund (economic data)
THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT There were 78 daily newspapers in print in Norway in 2004, eight of which are nationals and 70 of which are regional/local. Total circulation was 2.4 million, down 2.9% from 2000. The top selling daily is Verdens Gang which has a circulation of 365,000, followed by Aftenposten morgen with a circulation of 250,000. In 2004 newspaper advertising revenue was US$689.1 million.
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In 2004 there were 235 business magazine titles in Norway and 87 consumer titles, a decrease of 1.9% compared to 2001. There were 150 business magazine publishers in 2004, including Vanebo Forlag and Skarland Press. Revenue from magazine advertising was US$ 191.3 million, while total print advertising expenditure in Norway was at US$1,356 million in 2004, 27.5% up on 1995. Internet penetration meanwhile currently stands at 68% of the population, up from 49% in 2000. Broadband penetration is now in the order of 22%.
Table 2 Norway: Advertising and Print Media Trends, 2000-2004 Advertising media Above-the-line advertising (media sales) Total advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper advertising expenditure (US$ million) Magazine advertising expenditure (US$ million) Outdoor advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print's share of advertising expenditure (%) Internet advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper trends Number of newspaper titles Newspaper circulation ('000s) Magazine trends Number of consumer titles Number of business-to-business titles
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1,081.2 760.9 578.8 158.2 23.9 70.4 n/a
995.0 699.1 521.9 153.7 23.5 70.3 n/a
1,048.7 716.8 529.7 157.6 29.5 68.4 n/a
1,225.1 832.8 613.6 180.2 39.0 68.0 n/a
1,356.8 925.0 689.1 191.3 44.6 68.2 n/a
154 2,943
152 2,897
158 2,919
162 2,891
167 2,855
n/a 250
78 250
79 250
83 240
87 235
Source: World Advertising Trends, World Press Trends, World Magazine Trends
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Figure 2 Norway: Trends in Internet Usage, 2000-2005 Internet users (%)
Broadband penetration (%)
70
68.0 63.6 59.6
60
% population
50
55.8 48.9
52.2
40 30 21.9 20
14.8
10
8.0 4.2
1.9 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Pira International Ltd calculations from Internetworldstats.com (www.Internetworldstats.com); OECD (broadband penetration)
PRINT MARKET TRENDS The Norwegian print market was valued at NOK26.7 billion (US$4.15 billion) in 2005, projected to grow by 3.1% in absolute terms in 2006 and by 2.2% in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation. During the period 2001-2006, the market grew at an average annual rate of 0.5% in absolute terms but declined 2.5% in real terms.
Table 3 Norway: Print Market Trends, 2001-2006
NOK million, current prices NOK million, constant 2005 prices US$ million, current prices
2001
2005
2006p
26,811.3 31,053.8
26,711.4 26,711.4
$2,981.8
$4,147.7
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
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27,538.5 27,311.4
% change 20052006p 3.1 2.2
CAGR (%) 20012006p 0.5 -2.5
$4,276.2
3.1
7.5
Heatset web offset represents the single largest segment of the Norwegian market across print processes, with printing output valued at NOK6.16 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 3% in absolute terms in 2006. Sheetfed is the next largest component of offset litho printing with output at NOK5.88 billion and coldset web offset losing market share. The fastest growing areas of the market are Electrophotography and inkjet at NOK1.49 billion and NOK696 million respectively in 2005, with letterpress losing market share.
Table 4 Norway: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (NOK million, current prices) Process
Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
% change 2005-2006p
17,952.3 6,104.6 11,847.7 5,644.4 6,203.3 2,973.0 3,128.1 868.4 102.3 556.4 463.8 767.0 26,811.3
17,014.8 5,884.5 11,130.3 4,972.6 6,157.7 2,586.3 3,344.9 804.3 76.7 1,487.7 696.1 700.7 26,711.4
17,424.3 6,043.7 11,380.6 5,040.0 6,340.6 2,615.6 3,458.2 828.7 74.1 1,572.6 776.7 788.3 27,538.5
2.4 2.7 2.2 1.4 3.0 1.1 3.4 3.0 -3.4 5.7 11.6 12.5 3.1
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
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CAGR (%) 20012006p -0.6 -0.2 -0.8 -2.2 0.4 -2.5 2.0 -0.9 -6.3 23.1 10.9 0.6 0.5
Table 5 Norway: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
$1,996.5 678.9 1,317.6 627.7 689.9 330.6 347.9 96.6 11.4 61.9 51.6 85.3 $2,981.8
$2,642.0 913.7 1,728.3 772.1 956.2 401.6 519.4 124.9 11.9 231.0 108.1 108.8 $4,147.7
$2,705.7 938.5 1,767.2 782.6 984.6 406.1 537.0 128.7 11.5 244.2 120.6 122.4 $4,276.2
% change 2005-2006p 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.4 3.0 1.1 3.4 3.0 -3.4 5.7 11.6 12.5 3.1
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 6.3 6.7 6.0 4.5 7.4 4.2 9.1 5.9 0.2 31.6 18.5 7.5 7.5
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Across end-use areas, packaging represents the single largest product sector with sales of NOK5.57 billion in 2005. Other key sectors include newspapers (NOK3.86 billion), magazines (NOK3.78 billion) and books (NOK1.80 billion).
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Table 6 Norway: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (NOK million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p 1,817.9 582.8 78.4 4,051.6 3,761.0 777.6 758.8
% change 2005-2006p 0.7 5.6 0.8 7.3 -2.7 10.2 8.7
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p -1.1 -1.1 -3.3 1.6 -2.7 2.7 1.3
1,922.3 615.7 92.9 3,751.4 4,319.1 681.6 712.7
1,804.8 552.2 77.8 3,776.1 3,863.9 705.8 697.9
224.0 56.5
235.3 56.9
260.2 62.3
10.6 9.5
3.0 2.0
272.6 196.3 617.6 5,178.6 2,413.7 934.2 1,830.6 1,000.9 7,169.2 26,811.3
264.7 179.3 578.9 5,573.9 2,174.9 904.6 2,494.3 1,075.9 7,268.1 26,711.4
287.3 186.7 598.5 6,002.5 2,233.1 944.6 2,824.8 1,148.9 7,164.0 27,538.5
8.5 4.1 3.4 7.7 2.7 4.4 13.3 6.8 -1.4 3.1
1.1 -1.0 -0.6 3.0 -1.5 0.2 9.1 2.8 0.0 0.5
5,178.6 2,550.1 2,628.5
5,573.9 2,994.7 2,579.2
6,002.5 3,277.0 2,725.5
7.7 9.4 5.7
3.0 5.1 0.7
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 7 Norway: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p $282.3 90.5 12.2 629.1 584.0 120.8 117.8
% change 2005-2006p 0.7 5.6 0.7 7.3 -2.7 10.2 8.7
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 5.7 5.7 3.4 8.6 4.0 9.8 8.2
$213.8 68.5 10.3 417.2 480.3 75.8 79.3
$280.3 85.7 12.1 586.4 600.0 109.6 108.4
24.9 6.3
36.5 8.8
40.4 9.7
10.6 10.1
10.1 9.0
30.3 21.8 68.7 575.9 268.4 103.9 203.6 111.3 797.3 $2,981.8
41.1 27.8 89.9 865.5 337.7 140.5 387.3 167.1 1,128.6 $4,147.7
44.6 29.0 93.0 932.1 346.8 146.6 438.7 178.4 1,112.5 $4,276.2
8.6 4.4 3.4 7.7 2.7 4.4 13.3 6.8 -1.4 3.1
8.1 5.9 6.2 10.1 5.3 7.1 16.6 9.9 6.9 7.5
$575.9 283.6 292.3
$865.5 465.0 400.5
$932.1 508.8 423.3
7.7 9.4 5.7
10.1 12.4 7.7
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
MACHINERY, INK, CONSUMABLES AND SUBSTRATES Given the speed of product development and the rapid pace of technology transfer, most of the key developments for printing presses and processes over the next five years will be seen in all of the main regions of the world, despite the fact that the rate of adoption varies between developed and developing regions.
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Table 8 Norway: Printing Machinery (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
35.3 16.1 19.2 7.0 11.3 5.2 0.5 7.0 6.5 20.9 10.6
% change 2005-06 -6.3 -6.6 -3.7 -8.6 4.6 -10.4 -16.1 9.7 10.0 0.4 0.6
0.4 10.1 10.1 149.5
-19.5 1.6 -4.8 -2.8
2006
35.1 15.5 20.0 6.6 12.0 4.8 0.3 9.8 11.3 21.4 11.5
% change 2006-11 -0.6 -3.6 4.3 -4.7 6.5 -7.1 -27.6 40.6 72.9 2.6 8.9
0.3 11.2 10.8 159.2
-33.3 10.7 7.1 6.5
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 9 Norway: Printing Machinery (NOK million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
226.6 103.2 123.0 44.7 72.4 33.1 3.0 44.8 41.9 133.9 67.8
% change 2005-06 -6.7 -7.0 -4.1 -9.0 4.1 -10.8 -16.4 9.3 9.5 0.0 0.2
2.7 65.1 64.5 958.8
-19.9 1.2 -5.2 -3.2
2006
Source: Pira International Ltd
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225.3 99.5 128.2 42.6 77.1 30.8 2.1 62.9 72.4 137.4 73.9
% change 2006-11 -0.6 -3.6 4.3 -4.7 6.5 -7.1 -27.6 40.6 72.9 2.6 8.9
1.8 72.0 69.1 1,021.2
-33.3 10.7 7.1 6.5
2011
Table 10 Norway: Printing Consumables (US$ million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
8.2
% change 2005-06 -7.1
29.1 19.1 10.0 1.7 2.7 41.8
27.5 30.0 23.1 15.7 4.1 16.8
2006
5.5
% change 2006-11 -33.1
42.4 31.9 10.5 1.9 3.1 52.9
45.8 67.3 4.7 10.1 13.1 26.7
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 11 Norway: Printing Consumables (NOK million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
52.7
% change 2005-06 -7.5
186.6 122.5 64.1 11.2 17.4 267.9
27.0 29.4 22.6 15.3 3.7 16.3
2006
35.3
% change 2006-11 -33.1
272.0 204.9 67.1 12.3 19.7 339.3
45.8 67.3 4.7 10.1 13.1 26.7
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 12 Norway: Printing Inks (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 36.1 30.1 37.9 15.7 20.7 5.0 0.4 8.3 4.1 4.1 162.4
% change 2005-06 -2.2 -3.5 -1.9 -3.7 -1.5 -1.9 -8.0 0.7 6.3 7.1 -1.9
Source: Pira International Ltd
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2011 35.7 26.9 38.7 13.8 22.8 4.7 0.3 23.3 6.8 4.2 177.3
% change 2006-11 -1.1 -10.8 2.1 -12.1 10.4 -4.7 -27.7 182.2 67.2 2.7 9.2
Table 13 Norway: Printing Inks (NOK million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 231.6 193.2 243.0 100.6 132.7 31.8 2.8 53.0 26.1 26.5 1,041.4
% change 2005-06 -2.6 -3.9 -2.3 -4.1 -1.9 -2.3 -8.4 0.3 5.8 6.7 -2.3
2011 229.0 172.3 248.1 88.4 146.5 30.3 2.1 149.7 43.7 27.2 1,137.2
% change 2006-11 -1.1 -10.8 2.1 -12.1 10.4 -4.7 -27.7 182.2 67.2 2.7 9.2
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 14 Norway: Printing Substrates (US$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
76.2 170.0 195.7 131.0 214.4
% change 2005-06 -2.2 0.4 -1.0 -0.3 -1.8
314.1 56.2 284.4 146.1 194.9 1,783.1
2006
Source: Pira International Ltd
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69.7 172.8 188.2 129.6 199.3
% change 2006-11 -8.6 1.6 -3.8 -1.1 -7.0
0.3 -0.5 3.8 3.8
347.3 55.2 347.1 178.2
10.6 -1.8 22.0 22.0
-0.5 0.5
191.4 1,878.8
-1.8 5.4
2011
Table 15 Norway: Printing Substrates (NOK million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
489.0 1,090.4 1,255.3 840.1 1,374.8
% change 2005-06 -2.6 0.0 -1.4 -0.7 -2.2
2,014.3 360.3 1,824.2 936.8 1,250.2 11,435.4
2006
446.9 1,107.9 1,207.0 831.3 1,278.4
% change 2006-11 -8.6 1.6 -3.8 -1.1 -7.0
-0.1 -0.9 3.4 3.4
2,227.6 353.7 2,225.8 1,143.0
10.6 -1.8 22.0 22.0
-0.9 0.0
1,227.5 12,049.3
-1.8 5.4
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
For more comprehensive information about the global printing industry, please refer to the three PRIMIR reports “World Wide Market for Print” (Phase I, Phase II and Final). Visit http://www.primir.org/past_primir_studies.html for descriptions, tables of contents, and ordering information.
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