OECD/IEA - 2009 - OECD.org
KEY GRAPHS
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Mtoe
World primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario
18 000
Other renewables
16 000
Biomass
14 000
Hydro
12 000
Nuclear
10 000 8 000
Gas
6 000
Oil
4 000
Coal
2 000 0 1980
WEO-2008 total 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Global demand grows by 40% between 2007 and 2030, with coal use rising most in absolute terms © OECD/IEA - 2009
Net oil import dependence in main importing countries/regions in the Reference Scenario 2008
India
2030
European Union OECD Pacific China ASEAN United States 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Net imports as share of total demand
Import dependence falls in the United States & OECD Pacific, but increases in all other importing regions – most markedly in Asia © OECD/IEA - 2009
Number of people without access to electricity in the Reference Scenario (millions)
1.3 billion people – or 16% of the world’s population – still lack access to electricity in 2030, despite more widespread prosperity & more advanced technology © OECD/IEA - 2009
Gt
World abatement of energyenergy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 Scenario
42
Reference Scenario
Abatement
Investment
(Mt CO2)
($2008 billion)
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
Efficiency
2 517
7 880
1 999
5 586
36
End-use
2 284
7 145
1 933
5 551
34
Power plants
233
735
66
35
680
2 741
527
2 260
40 38
32
Renewables
30
Biofuels
57
429
27
378
Nuclear
493
1 380
125
491
CCS
102
1 410
56
646
28 26 2007 2010
450 Scenario 2015
2020
2025
2030
Efficiency measures account for two-thirds of the 3.8 Gt of abatement in 2020, with renewables contributing close to one-fifth © OECD/IEA - 2009
Mtoe
World primary energy demand by fuel in the 450 Scenario
4 500 4 000
36% 32%
3 500
28%
3 000
24%
2 500
20%
2 000
16%
1 500
12%
1 000
8%
500
4%
0 1990
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables Share of zero-carbon fuels (right axis)
0% 2000
2010
2020
2030
In the 450 Scenario, demand for fossil fuels peaks by 2020, and by 2030 zero-carbon fuels make up a third of the world's primary sources of energy demand © OECD/IEA - 2009
Billionn dollars (2008)
World additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario
1 200
Industry
1 000
Power plants
800
Buildings
600
Biofuels
400
Transport
200 0 2015
2020
2025
2030
$10.5 trillion of additional investment is needed in the 450 Scenario in the period 2010-2030 compared with the Reference Scenario, costing 0.5% of GDP in 2020 & 1.1% of GDP in 2030 © OECD/IEA - 2009
Ultimately recoverable conventional natural gas resources by region, endend-2008
Remaining recoverable resources
E. Europe/Eurasia Middle East North America
Cumulative production, fl i and flaring d venting i
A i P ifi Asia-Pacific Africa Europe Latin America 0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175 tcm
Only 14% of ultimately recoverable conventional resources have been extracted so far, with remaining resources equal to almost 130 years of production at current rates © OECD/IEA - 2009
bcm
Natural gas inter inter--regional transportation capacity
800
73%
700 600 500
Unutilised LNG liquefaction & pipeline capacity LNG trade
88%
Pipeline trade
400
% Capacity utilisation rate
300 200 100 0 2007
2015
A sizable glut of gas is looming – approaching 200 bcm by 2015 – as a result of weaker than expected demand growth & a wave of new capacity additions © OECD/IEA - 2009
tcm
World natural gas production by field vintage in the Reference Scenario
5
100%
Post-2008 fields
4
80%
Pre-2008 fields
3
60%
Share from new fields (right axis)
2
40%
1
20%
0
0% 2007
2015
2020
2025
2030
Additional capacity of around 2 700 bcm, or 4 times current Russian capacity, is needed by 2030 – half to offset decline at existing fields & half to meet the increase in demand © OECD/IEA - 2009
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Mtoe
World primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario
18 000
Other renewables
16 000
Biomass
14 000
Hydro
12 000
Nuclear
10 000 8 000
Gas
6 000
Oil
4 000
Coal
2 000 0 1980
WEO-2008 total 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Global demand grows by 40% between 2007 and 2030, with coal use rising most in absolute terms © OECD/IEA - 2009
Net oil import dependence in main importing countries/regions in the Reference Scenario 2008
India
2030
European Union OECD Pacific China ASEAN United States 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Net imports as share of total demand
Import dependence falls in the United States & OECD Pacific, but increases in all other importing regions – most markedly in Asia © OECD/IEA - 2009
Number of people without access to electricity in the Reference Scenario (millions)
1.3 billion people – or 16% of the world’s population – still lack access to electricity in 2030, despite more widespread prosperity & more advanced technology © OECD/IEA - 2009
Gt
World abatement of energyenergy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 Scenario
42
Reference Scenario
Abatement
Investment
(Mt CO2)
($2008 billion)
2020
2030
20102020
20212030
Efficiency
2 517
7 880
1 999
5 586
36
End-use
2 284
7 145
1 933
5 551
34
Power plants
233
735
66
35
680
2 741
527
2 260
40 38
32
Renewables
30
Biofuels
57
429
27
378
Nuclear
493
1 380
125
491
CCS
102
1 410
56
646
28 26 2007 2010
450 Scenario 2015
2020
2025
2030
Efficiency measures account for two-thirds of the 3.8 Gt of abatement in 2020, with renewables contributing close to one-fifth © OECD/IEA - 2009
Mtoe
World primary energy demand by fuel in the 450 Scenario
4 500 4 000
36% 32%
3 500
28%
3 000
24%
2 500
20%
2 000
16%
1 500
12%
1 000
8%
500
4%
0 1990
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables Share of zero-carbon fuels (right axis)
0% 2000
2010
2020
2030
In the 450 Scenario, demand for fossil fuels peaks by 2020, and by 2030 zero-carbon fuels make up a third of the world's primary sources of energy demand © OECD/IEA - 2009
Billionn dollars (2008)
World additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario
1 200
Industry
1 000
Power plants
800
Buildings
600
Biofuels
400
Transport
200 0 2015
2020
2025
2030
$10.5 trillion of additional investment is needed in the 450 Scenario in the period 2010-2030 compared with the Reference Scenario, costing 0.5% of GDP in 2020 & 1.1% of GDP in 2030 © OECD/IEA - 2009
Ultimately recoverable conventional natural gas resources by region, endend-2008
Remaining recoverable resources
E. Europe/Eurasia Middle East North America
Cumulative production, fl i and flaring d venting i
A i P ifi Asia-Pacific Africa Europe Latin America 0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175 tcm
Only 14% of ultimately recoverable conventional resources have been extracted so far, with remaining resources equal to almost 130 years of production at current rates © OECD/IEA - 2009
bcm
Natural gas inter inter--regional transportation capacity
800
73%
700 600 500
Unutilised LNG liquefaction & pipeline capacity LNG trade
88%
Pipeline trade
400
% Capacity utilisation rate
300 200 100 0 2007
2015
A sizable glut of gas is looming – approaching 200 bcm by 2015 – as a result of weaker than expected demand growth & a wave of new capacity additions © OECD/IEA - 2009
tcm
World natural gas production by field vintage in the Reference Scenario
5
100%
Post-2008 fields
4
80%
Pre-2008 fields
3
60%
Share from new fields (right axis)
2
40%
1
20%
0
0% 2007
2015
2020
2025
2030
Additional capacity of around 2 700 bcm, or 4 times current Russian capacity, is needed by 2030 – half to offset decline at existing fields & half to meet the increase in demand © OECD/IEA - 2009
