OSU Freshman Retention Analysis Fall 2007 to Fall 2008

Report 0 Downloads 27 Views
OSU Freshman Retention Analysis Fall 2007 to Fall 2008 K Celeste Campbell, K. Campbell Ph.D., Ph D University Registrar Registrar, Oklahoma State University April 2009

Purpose of this Study „ To identify factors that were potential predictors of freshman

retention „ To evaluate the relative predictive importance of these factors „ To use these factors to describe how retained students differ from those who were not retained (departed). (departed)

Subjects 3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

3110

2835 2400

1000

500

435 0 Fall 07

Spr 08

Sum 08

Fall 08

Univariate Analyses „ Performed to determine the univariate relationship of 22

initial variables with retention group. These are primarily pre-college and college academic variables, financial variables, and demographic variables. (Table 1, p. 5) „ Tables 2 and 3 (pp. 6-7) 6 7) provide results. „ The only variables that showed no statistically significant relationship with retention group were OK resident status and Residential Life status.

Multivariate Discriminant Analysis „ The 20 variables that showed significance during the

univariate analyses were reduced (redundancy tests) to a set of 12 predictors for the discriminant analysis (Table 4, p. 8). „ This set of variables was moderately successful in predicting to which retention group students belonged (82.4% accuracy; 65% improvement over chance).

Most Important Predictors The four most important predictor variables provide the following distinction between retained and departed students. Students who were not retained: • had significantly lower college GPAs; • were significantly g y more likelyy to have an unpaid p OSU bill;; • withdrew from significantly more credit hours of coursework

during the first semester; and • had significantly lower high school GPAs.

Relatively Small Contributions Other variables that made relatively small contributions to the retention prediction: • ACT score (departed students had lower scores); • number of credit hours attempted during the first semester (departed • • • • •

students attempted fewer hours); family income (departed students had lower family income); amountt off scholarships, h l hi grants, t andd tuition t iti waivers i (departed (d t d students had less assistance that did not require repayment); unmet financial need during the first semester (departed students had more unmet financial need); gender (male students were more likely to depart); and race (minority students were more likely to depart).

Note: College variable was treated uniquely in the analysis.

Further Examination of Departed Students „ The model predicted as retained 39% of those students who

departed. „ Additional analyses were performed to determine characteristics of these students. „ These students were generally very similar to retained students academically, financially, etc. (Table 6, p. 11) „ Clearly, these students departed for reasons that are not measured by this study.

Prior Research Telephone surveys conducted with students who left OSU between 2005 and 2007 identified the following factors as most important in their departure decision: „ financial problems, „academic difficulty, difficulty „personal problems, and „the location of OSU.

Questions or Comments

Oklahoma State University Retention Analysis Report Focusing on Fall 2007 Freshmen  K. Celeste Campbell, Ph.D., University Registrar, Oklahoma State University  January 2009 

  Bulleted Summary    •

• •





The retention rate at Oklahoma State University for the Fall 2007 freshman cohort was the lowest in  10 years (77.1%). The highest freshman retention rate during the past 10 years was 84.6% for the  1999 cohort.  Using the Fall 2007 freshman cohort, retention status was predicted moderately well (82.4%  accuracy) from a set of academic, financial, and demographic variables.  The most important variables that predicted retention status were the college GPA, unpaid OSU  balance (bursar hold), the number of credit hours dropped during the first semester, and the high  school GPA. Students who were not retained:  o had significantly lower college GPAs;   o were significantly more likely to have an unpaid OSU bill;  o withdrew from significantly more credit hours of coursework during the first semester; and   o had significantly lower high school GPAs.  Other variables that made a relatively small contribution to the prediction of retention were: ACT  score (departed students had lower scores); number of credit hours attempted during the first  semester (departed students attempted fewer hours); family income (departed students had lower  family income); amount of scholarships, grants, and tuition waivers (departed students had less  assistance that did not require repayment); unmet financial need during the first semester  (departed students had more unmet financial need); gender (male students were more likely to  depart); and race (minority students were more likely to depart).   A group of students has been identified who were predicted as retained but who in fact have left  OSU. These students, who resemble retained students on most of the variables examined in this  study, are of particular interest. Recommendations include interviewing a sample of these students  to determine the reasons for their departure.    Narrative Summary 

  Over the past 10 years, the freshman retention rate at Oklahoma State University has ranged from  77.1% for the 2007 cohort to 84.6% for the 1999 cohort (OSU Student Profile, 2008). Freshman retention  is defined as the percent of full time freshman students enrolled during a fall semester who return for  the following fall semester. The purpose of this study was to identify factors that were potential  predictors of freshman retention, to evaluate the relative predictive importance of these factors, and to  use them to describe how the retained students differ from those who departed. Records were  examined from 3,110 freshmen who were enrolled in at least 12 credit hours at OSU during the Fall  2007 semester. After one year, during the Fall 2008 semester, 2,400 of these students were still enrolled  at OSU and 710 were not enrolled.     Using an initial set of 22 variables, preliminary univariate and subsequent multivariate discriminant  analyses resulted in a set of 11 variables that were moderately successful in predicting whether or not  students were retained (82.4% accuracy; 65% improvement over chance as measured by the  proportional reduction in error). The initial set of variables represented pre college skills and abilities,  college academic performance, academic and social integration, financial resources, family and  community background, and personal attributes. The most important discriminating variables were the  college cumulative graduation/retention GPA, the presence or absence of a bursar hold one year after  1   

beginning college, the number of credit hours dropped during the first semester of college, and the high  school GPA. Students who were not retained had significantly lower graduation/retention GPAs, had  significantly more bursar holds, withdrew from significantly more credit hours of coursework during the  first semester, and had significantly lower high school GPAs.    The set of predictor variables was quite successful predicting students who were retained (88.8%  accuracy). However, 39% of the students who departed were predicted to be retained. That is, 39% of  the students who did not enroll at OSU for the Fall 2008 semester appeared to be successful  academically and did not appear to have severe financial difficulties. Additional analysis was performed  to compare these students with those who were retained and with the other students who were not  retained, and the results suggest that the students in this group are generally very similar to the  retained group on the academic and financial variables used in this analysis. Further research is needed  to determine reasons for the departure of these students. Telephone surveys conducted with students  who left OSU between 2005 and 2007 identified the following factors as most important in their  departure decision: financial problems, academic difficulty, personal problems, and the location of OSU  (OSU First Semester Retention, 2007; Retention, 2007). A similar survey, targeting the students who  departed but were predicted to be retained, would be beneficial. Because it is already known that these  students did not experience academic or severe financial difficulties, the survey should focus on a few  brief, open ended questions to determine the reasons for departure and whether OSU could have done  anything to prevent it.       

2   

Methodology and Results    Introduction and Purpose of the Study    Over the past 10 years, the freshman retention rate at Oklahoma State University has ranged from  77.1% for the 2007 cohort to 84.6% for the 1999 cohort (OSU Student Profile, 2008). Freshman retention  is defined as the percent of full time freshman students enrolled during a fall semester who return for  the following fall semester. The purpose of this study was to identify factors that were potential  predictors of retention, to evaluate the relative predictive importance of these factors, and to use them  to describe how the retained students differ from those who departed.    Subjects    The subjects for this study are the students in the Fall 2007 Oklahoma State University freshman cohort:  3,110 students who were enrolled in at least 12 credit hours as new freshmen during the Fall 2007  semester. Two students were omitted from the original sample of 3,112 because they were deceased  sometime during the Spring 2008 semester.    Cohort Enrollment Status     The enrollment status of the Fall 2007 freshman cohort is shown in Figure 1. Spring 2008 enrollment  showed a loss of 275 of the original students (8.8%). One year after initial enrollment, the Fall 2008  enrollment showed a loss of 710 of the original cohort students (22.8%). This constitutes a freshman  retention rate of 77.1%, which is the lowest in 10 years (Fall 2008 OSU Student Profile). A total of 28  students withdrew from all courses before completing the Fall 2007 semester. Three of these students  returned for Spring 2008, but none of the 28 were enrolled for Fall 2008. Of the students who were not  enrolled for Spring 2008, 15 came back to be enrolled for Fall 2008. In Summer 2008, 435 of the cohort  students (14.0%) were enrolled. Of the summer students, 433 were continuing from Spring and 2 were  returning from Fall 2007. Thirty five students left at the end of summer.  Figures 2 and 3 provide one year retention information by the College of initial enrollment.    Figure 1. Fall 2007 Freshman Cohort Enrollment    3500 3000 2500 2000 1500

3110

2835 2400

1000 500 435 0 Fall 07

Spr 08

Sum 08

  3   

Fall 08

 

Figure 2. Cohort Enrollment Status after One Year by College of Initial Enrollment    1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

661

Retained 437

Departed

423

306 87 AG

208 AS

186

162

225

118

60

106

79

52

BU

ED

EN

GU

HES

    Figure 3. Cohort Enrollment Status after One Year: Percentage by College of Initial Enrollment    100% 90%

77.90% 76.10% 78.70% 75.60% 80.00% 67.20% 81.20%

80% 70% 60% 50%

Retained

40%

Departed

30% 20% 10%

32.80% 22.10% 23.90% 21.30% 24.40% 20.00%

18.80%

0% AG

AS

BU

ED

EN

 

GU

HES

 

  Definitions of Predictor Variables    For this study, an initial set of 22 variables was examined to identify factors that were potential  predictors of student retention status after one year—factors that would be able to predict whether  students were still enrolled at OSU (members of the retained group) or were not enrolled (members of  the departed group). Table 1 provides a listing of the initial predictor variables, along with their  descriptions and the corresponding category from Tinto’s model of student departure (1993, chap. 4).       

4   

Table 1. Initial Predictor Variables    Predictor 

Definition/Explanation

ACT Highest Composite 

Highest composite ACT score 

HS Class Rank 

High school class rank as a percentage, where first in class = 100% 

HS Core GPA 

High school core GPA 

HS GPA 

High school cumulative GPA 

076 Hours of W 

Number of credit hours with grades of W during Fall 07 (courses  dropped between week 2 and week 12)  Ratio of OSU earned credit hours to OSU attempted credit hours 

Total OSU % Completed Hours  076 Earned Hours 

Institutional GPA 

Number of credit hours earned Fall 07 (excludes courses dropped,  courses with grades of F or I, and remedial courses)  Satisfactory academic progress for financial aid purposes assessed  at the end of the Freshman year (Summer 08); based on good  academic standing and successful completion of at least 75% of  total cumulative hours attempted; Cleared, probation, suspended.  Binary variable indicating academic standing, where good  academic standing is a 1.7 grad/ret GPA with 30 earned hours or  less and a 2.0 grad/ret GPA with more than 30 earned hours  Cumulative graduation/retention GPA, including courses from  other institutions. Zero GPAs that resulted from withdrawal from  all courses were replaced with “missing.”  GPA calculated from all OSU courses 

076 Attempted Hours  076 College 

Number of credit hours attempted Fall 07  College of initial enrollment: AG, AS, BU, ED, EN, GU, HES 

Residential Life during Fall 07 

Binary variable indicating whether or not student lived in on campus housing during Fall 07  Binary variable indicating whether or not student is classified as an  Oklahoma resident  Binary variable indicating student’s gender  Binary variable indicating whether or not student is Caucasian  Total dollar amount of Fall 07 scholarships, grants, and tuition  waivers  Fall 07 cost of education minus expected family contribution and  all “free” assistance (scholarships, grants, and tuition waivers).  Need to borrow assumed to be zero if student did not file FAFSA.  Fall 07 cost of education minus expected family contribution and  all assistance (scholarships, tuition waivers, grants, student loans,  and parent loans). Unmet need assumed to be zero if student did  not file FAFSA.  Family adjusted gross income; available for students who filed  FASFA (65% of sample); missing value for other students.  Binary variable indicating whether or not student had a bursar  hold November 2008. Generally a bursar hold is placed on a  student’s record if there is an overdue balance of at least $100. 

SAPFinAidStatus084 

Good Academic Standing 

Grad/Ret GPA 

OK Resident Status  Gender  Race  076 assistance no repayment  076 need to borrow 

076 unmet need 

Adjusted Gross Income  Current Bursar Hold 

     

 

5   

Category Precollege skills and  abilities  Precollege skills and  abilities  Precollege skills and  abilities  Precollege skills and  abilities  College academic  performance  College academic  performance  College academic  performance  College academic  performance 

College academic  performance  College academic  performance  College academic  performance  Academic integration  Academic/social  integration  Social integration  Family and community  background  Personal attributes  Personal attributes  Financial resources  Financial resources 

Financial resources 

Financial resources  Financial resources 

Univariate Analysis    Preliminary screening analyses (independent samples t tests) were performed to help understand  significant univariate differences between the students who were retained and those who departed and  to determine a more parsimonious set of viable discriminating variables. Significant group differences  were found on all of the variables listed in Table 2. The variables in the table are arranged by decreasing  effect size. The larger the effect size (in absolute value), the more different the two groups are on the  particular variable.    Table 2. Comparisons by Retention Group for Continuous Variables Arranged by Decreasing Effect Size    Predictor  Departed  Retained        Cohen’s    N  M  SD  N  M  SD  t  p  d1  Large effect size                    Total OSU % Completed Hrs**  710  59.20  34.00  2400  91.07  13.52  24.4