OUTLOOK FOR ALTERNATIVE RENEWABLE ENERGY IN BRAZIL XIX Annual Latin American Energy Conference - The La Jolla Conference Renewable Energy Plenary Institute of the Americas
Mauricio T. Tolmasquim CEO Energy Research Office - EPE May 11th, 2010
ENERGY SUPPLY STRUCTURE IN BRAZIL: AN EXAMPLE FOR THE WORLD
ENERGY SUPPLY STRUCTURE BRAZIL X WORLD
BRAZIL 2009 Oil 37.8%
Sugar Cane 18.1%
OECD 2008 Hydraulic Energy and Electricity 2.0%
Biomass (*) 13.9% Natural Gas 8.7% Hydraulic Energy and Electricity 15.3%
Uranium (U3O8) 1.4%
Renewables (*) 5.2%
Oil 37.8%
Uranium (U3O8) 5.9%
Coal 4.8%
(*) includes firewood, charcoal and other
Renewables in the Energy Matrix = (Hydraulic + Sugar Cane Products + Biomass) = 47.3%
Coal 20.9% Natural Gas 23.7% (*) includes renewable fuels, waste, solar power, wind power, geothermal and other
Sources: EPE [BEN 2010 - Preliminary Results] and IEA [Key World Energy Statistics - 2009]
QUALITY OF THE ENERGY MATRIX BRAZIL X WORLD
OECD Countries (2008)
World (2007)
7.2
12.7
87.3
47.3
Brazil (2009)
Renewable
92.8
0%
Non-Renewable
20%
52.7
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sources: EPE [BEN 2010 - Preliminary Results] and IEA [Key World Energy Statistics - 2009]
ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY STRUCTURE ATUALIZADO AMILCAR BRAZIL X WORLD
WORLD 2007 BRAZIL 2009 Hydraulic ³ Hidráulica 85.0% 85,0%
Nuclear Nuclear 2,5% 2.5% Gás Natural Natural Gas 2,6% 2.6%
Wind Eólica 0.24% 0,24%
Nuclear 13.8%
Carvão e Derivados ¹ Coal 1,3% 1.3%
Biomass (*) (*) Biomassa ² 5.4% 5,4%
Derivados de Oil Petróleo 2.9% 2,9%
Coal 41.5%
Natural Gas 20.9%
90.6% Renewable
Oil 5.6% Hydraulic 15.6%
Other 2.6%
18.2% Renewable
(*) mainly generated from the co-generation with sugar cane
Sources: EPE [BEN 2010 - Preliminary Results] and IEA [Key World Energy Statistics - 2009]
WE CAN KEEP OUR “CLEAN” ENERGY SUPPLY STRUCTURE HYDRAULIC SUGAR CANE BIOMASS ALTERNATIVE RENEWABLE SOURCES
SUGAR CANE BIOMASS
COSTS Custos de ETHANOL produçPRODUCTION ão do etanol Ethanol Productivity
Source: O. Henniges and J. Zeddies, ”Economics of Bioethanol in the Asia-Pacific: Australia-Thailand-China”, in F.O.Licht´s. World Ethanol and Biofuels, vol. 3, n. 11, 2005.
Source: IEA (2005) and MTEC
FLEX FUEL SHARE - BRAZIL
FLEX FUEL - VendaLIGHT deVEHICLES veículos SALE leves
Source: ANFAVEA - Monthly Bulletin of Biofuels – April 2010
FLEET BY FUEL - BRAZIL LIGHT VEHICLES
45 40 35
Million of Vehicles
30
26.31
24.84
27.79
29.29
30.79
32.29
33.79
35.29
36.78
38.25
39.71
25 77.9% 20 15
37.2% 5.9%
10 5
1.2% 56.8% 20.9%
0
Source: EPE (PDE 2019)
Gasoline
Ethanol
Flex Fuel
TOTAL DEMAND FOR ETHANOL PROSPECTS
70
64.0 1,7 1.7 60 9,9 9.9
Bilhões Litros billiondeliters
∆ 36.5 50
40 52.4 52,4
30 1,4 1.4 20
27.5 3.3 3,3 22.8 22,8
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Domestic Demand forCarburante Fuel Ethanol Álcool Demanda Interna Source: EPE (PDE 2019)
2015
2016
Exports Exportação
2017
2018
Other Uses Outros Usos
2019
SUGAR CANE DEMAND PROSPECTS
million tons Milhões de Toneladas
1200 1000 800 600
270
278
287
297
306
315
325
400 200
415
453
489
533
2010
2011
2012
2013
574
614
654
2014
2015
2016
334
344
351
695
741
784
2017
2018
2019
0
Source: EPE (PDE 2019)
Sugar Cane foroEthanol Cana para etanol
Sugar Cane Cana paraforoFood açúcar
COGENERATION POTENCIAL FROM SUGAR CANE BAGASSE
Source: EPE (PDE 2019)
The estimated cogeneration potential in 2019 is about 89.1 TWh
20 BIOMASS THERMAL POWER PLANTS IN OPERATION [ 514 MW ] RESULT OF THE INCENTIVE PROGRAM FOR ALTERNATIVES SOURCES (PROINFA)
UTE Giasa II – 20 MW UTE JB – 33.2 MW UTE Cururipe – 16 MW UTE Iolando Leite - 5 MW UTE Goiasa – 42.52 MW UTE Jalles Machado – 12 MW
UTE S. Terez. Tapejara – 48.1 MW UTE Winimport – 7 MW UTE Usaciga – 40 MW UTE Ecoluz – 10 MW
Sources: Aneel, Eletrobrás and MME
UTE Jitituba Sto. Antonio – 15 MW UTE Volta Grande – 30 MW UTE Água Bonita – 15.8 MW UTE Canaã – 30 MW UTE Cerradinho – 50 MW UTE Mandu – 20.2 MW UTE Maracaí – 36.82 MW UTE Pioneiros – 28.4 MW UTE Ruette – 24.4 MW UTE Fartura – 29.9 MW
58 BIOMASS THERMAL POWER PLANTS [3,515 MW] RESULTS OF NEW ENERGY AUCTIONS 2005-2009 1st New Energy Auction 2nd New Energy Auction
UTE BEN Bioenergia; 30 MW
3rd New Energy Auction 1st Alternative Energy Auction
UTE Baía Formosa; 32 MW
1st Reserve Auction 7th New Energy Auction 8th New Energy Auction (*) Capacity Expansion
UTE Costa Pinto; 66 MW
UTE Paraúna; 114 MW
UTE Rafard; 43 MW
UTE Interlagos; 40 MW
UTE Colorado; 34 MW
UTE São José; 50 MW
UTE Santa Isabel; 40 MW
UTE S. João Biogás; 20 MW
UTE Quata; 54 MW
UTE Bonfim; 41 MW
UTE Ferrari; 27 MW
UTE Florida Paulista; 55 MW
UTE S. João B. Vista; 70 MW
UTE Pioneiros 2; 50 MW
UTE Sta. Cruz AB 1; 25 MW
UTE Sta. Cruz AB 2; 25 MW
UTE Ester; 30 MW
UTE Iacanga; 12 MW
UTE Morro Velho; 73 MW
UTE Clealco Queiroz; 35 MW
UTE Cocal 2; 160 MW
UTE Jataí; 105 MW
UTE Ferrari (*); 35 MW
UTE São Luiz; 70 MW
UTE Barra Bioen.; 136 MW
UTE Bonfim (*); 45 MW
UTE Biopav 2; 140 MW
UTE Rio Brilhante 1; 40 MW UTE Rio Brilhante 2; 50 MW
UTE Alto Taquari; 73 MW
UTE Angélica; 32 MW
UTE Quirinópolis; 40 MW
UTE Costa Rica; 73 MW
UTE Quirinópolis (*); 40 MW
UTE Chapadão; 192 MW
UTE Água Emendada; 73 MW
UTE Santa Luzia 1; 130 MW
UTE Cia Bio Brasileira; 18 MW
UTE S. Fernando; 48 MW
UTE Boa Vista; 80 MW
UTE Lagoa Prata 1; 40 MW
UTE Porto das Águas; 70 MW
UTE Lagoa Prata 2; 20 MW
UTE Caçu I; 130 MW
UTE Conq. Pontal; 100 MW
UTE Vale Paracatu; 80 MW
UTE Tropical Bio. 2; 85 MW
UTE Dest. Andrade; 33 MW
UTE Decasa; 70 MW
UTE Vale S. Simão; 50 MW
UTE Cach. Dourada; 80 MW
UTE Noble Energia; 30 MW
UTE NO Paulista; 60 MW
UTE Vale do Tijuco; 45 MW
UTE Codora; 48 MW
UTE Xanxerê; 30 MW
WIND
BRAZILIAN WIND POWER POTENTIAL
Estimated Potential (CEPEL-2001) 143.5 GW - 50 m towers -
GREATER POTENTIAL
The estimated generation potential is about 271 TWh, as much as 53% of the actual electricity supply in Brazil [ 509 TWh ]
SECOND RESERVE AUCTION - WIND (2009) Date
December 14th, 2009
Registration for the Auction
13,341 MW / 441 projects
Initial Price
108 US$/MWh
Medium Price
84.8 US$/MWh (21.5% discount)
Operation
Until July 1st, 2012
Contracts
20 years
Capacity
1,806 MW
Energy
6.9 TWh
Projects
71
Total amount transacted
11.2 US$ billion 1 US$ = 1.75 R$
SECOND RESERVE AUCTION - WIND (2009)
number capacity of (MW) blades
location
number of projects
number of wind turbines
BA
18
255
765
390
1.6
46.4%
CE
21
295
885
543
2.0
41.6%
RN
23
361
1,083
657
2.6
45.3%
RS
8
108
324
186
0.6
38.3%
SE
1
17
51
30
0.1
35.0%
TOTAL
71
1,036
3,108
1,806
6.9
Cfmed = 43.5%
Source: EPE
energy (TWh)
capacity factor (%)
WE STARTED TO USE OUR WIND POWER POTENTIAL
1,436 MW
1,436 MW
22 MW
3,241 MW
Evolution of installed capacity in Brazil, 2003-2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sources: Electricity Atlas, 2nd ed.. Brasília: ANEEL, 2005, Global Wind 2009 Report GWEC 2010 and EPE (PDE 2019).
THIRD RESERVE AUCTION – RENEWABLE SOURCES (2010) Registration for the Auction Source
Projects
Capacity (MW)
Wind Power Plants
399
10,569
Small Hydro Power Plants
18
255
Biomass – sugar cane bagasse
55
3,518
Biomass – wood waste
2
57
Biomass – other sources
4
131
478
14,529
Total Source: EPE
NATIONAL ENERGY EXPANSION PLAN FROM 2010 TO 2019
ALTERNATIVE RENEWABLE POWER EXPANSION - 2010-2019 14,655 MW Expansão de2010-2019 Fontes Alternativas (SIN) Biomass Biomassa 5.4 GW 5,4 GW 37% 37%
FONTE: EPE.
Small Hydro
PCH 3.9 GW 3,9 GW 27% 27%
Eólica Wind 5,3 5.3 GWGW 36%36%
Source : EPE (PDE 2019)
NATIONAL POWER CAPACITY EXPANSION - 2010-2019 63,482 MW
Alternative Renewable Uranium
14,655 MW - 23.1% 1,405 MW - 2.2%
Fossil Fuel
12,175 MW - 19.2%
Hydro
35,247 MW - 55.5%
Source: EPE (PDE 2019)
63,482 MW
EVOLUTION OF THE GENERATION SOURCES SHARE ON ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY STRUCTURE
Generation Sources Participation
Participação das Fontes (% Potência (% ofInstalada) national capacity)
RENEWABLES FONTES RENOVÁVEIS
THERMAL UTE
NUCLEAR NUCLEAR
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
2010 FONTE: EPE. Source: EPE (PDE 2019)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
ENERGY SUPPLY STRUCTURE PROSPECTS
Sugar Cane 20.3%
Other Renewables 3.2%
2010 Oil 35.0%
2019 Firewood and Charcoal Hydraulic Uranium (U3O8) 10.8% Coal 14.0% 1.4% 5.5%
Natural Gas 9.8%
Firewood and Charcoal 9.9% Source: EPE (PDE 2019)
Sugar Cane 21.5%
Hydraulic 12.7%
Other Renewables 3.7%
Uranium (U3O8) 1.5%
Oil 31.0%
Coal 7.4%
Natural Gas 12.2%
QUALITY OF THE ENERGY MATRIX RENEWABLE X NON-RENEWABLE
Source: EPE (PDE 2019)
(Energy Research Office)
Ministry of Mines and Energy