Outlook for the World Coffee Market - International Coffee Organization

Report 3 Downloads 43 Views
Outlook for the World Coffee Market Annual General Assembly Koninklijk Verbond van Koffiebranders Union Royale des Torréfacteurs de Café 23 May 2011 José Sette Executive Director a.i. International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

ICO composite indicator price Monthly averages: January 1990 to April 2011 in current terms 240

220

200

180

160

US cents/lb

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

1

ICO group indicator prices Monthly: January 1990 to April 2011 in current terms 325 300 275 250 225

US cents/lb

200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0

Colombian Milds

Other Milds

Brazilian Naturals

Robustas

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

ICO composite and group indicator prices historical comparison US cents per pound Last monthly average  Highest monthly  when price was when price was  average ever average ever  higher recorded April 2011

ICO Composite 

231.24

243.06 June 1977 314.96

Colombian Milds

312.95

318.50 May 1997 320.78

Oth Mild Other Milds

300 12 300.12

317 68 April 1977 317.68 A il 1977 317.68 317 68

Brazilian Naturals

273.40

280.24 May 1986 369.00

Robustas

117.37

118.13

March  2011

312.24

April  1977 April  1977 April  p 1977 April  1977 April  1977

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

2

ICO composite indicator price (deflated) Monthly averages: January 1990 to April 2011 in constant Apr-Jun 2000 terms 250

200

US cents/lb

150

100

50

0

UN index

USA CPI

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Exports by group and by type of coffee October to March (000 bags) 2009/10 TOTAL

2010/11 % change

45 847

52 921

15.4

by group of coffee Colombian Milds

4 238

5 604

32.2

Other Milds

9 944

12 091

21.6

Brazilian Naturals

15 649

17 993

15.0

Robustas

16 015

17 233

76 7.6

by type of coffee Arabicas

29 831

35 688

19.6

Robustas

16 015

17 233

7.6

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

3

Exports by the top 10 exporting countries October to March (000 bags) TOTAL Brazil Vietnam Colombia India Indonesia H d Honduras Peru Ethiopia Guatemala Uganda

2009/10 45 847 15 381 7 681 3 646 1 749 3 563 1 572 1 313 706 1 485 1 451

2010/11 % change 52 921 15.4 18 291 8 575 4 987 2 895 2 645 2 074 1 680 1 441 1 432 1 325

18.9 11.6 36.8 65.5 -25.8 31 9 31.9 27.9 104.0 -3.6 -8.7

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

New York ICE futures settlement prices 1st to 15th position on 17 May 2011 280

275

US cents/lb

270

265

260

255

250

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

4

World Production Crop years 2000/01 to 2010/11 140 128.9 123.2 120

133.1

128.4 123.1

120.0 116.2

113 0 113.0

111.2

107.7

106.3

million bags

100

80

60

40

20

0 2000/01

2001/02

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11*

*Estimated

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Production: 10 leading producers (Volume in 000 bags - % of world production) 2009/10 2010/11

Brazil Vietnam Colombia Indonesia Ethiopia India Mexico Guatemala Honduras Uganda

39 470 48 095 18 200 18 500 8 098 9 200 11 380 8 500 6 931 7 450 4 823 4 733 4 200 4 400 3 835 4 000 3 575 3 830 2 797 3 100

% change

21.9% 1.6% 13.6% -25.3% 7.5% -1.8% 4.8% 4.3% 7.1% 10.8%

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

5

Opening stocks in exporting countries Crop years 1964 to 2010 100 90

85.8 81.0 80.2

80 70

71.0

70.7 68.1

64.5

64.063.5

million bags

60 53.8 53.8

55.1

55.8 54.2 53.1 52.2

54.9 52.4 52.0 48.2 45.3 42.6

49.5

50

44.8

55.154.0

53.5

44.2 42.2 41.0 40.0

40.3

40

52.7

48.3

47.4

41.2 37.2

34.6 32.6 32.7 29.6 30.5

30

28.3 27.7 20.5 19.5

20

13.0

10 0

*Preliminary

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Inventories in importing countries Calendar years 1964 to 2010 25

22.3 20.3

20

20.1 0. 20.1 20 1

19.3

18.6 18.1

16.0

16.1

21.4 21.1 20.2 19.1 18.3

16.1

14.8

million bags

15 12.6 11.6

10.5

10.5

10

8.4 7.9

8.2

7.8

7.8

7.5 6.3

5.6

9.3

9.3

8.5 68 6.8

66 6.6 6.1

9.3

9.2

9.0

8.8

9.8

5.7

7.9

7.5

8.4 8.2 7.7

6.1 6.4

5

0

*Preliminary

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

6

Total exports to all destinations Calendar years 2000 to 2010 100

97.5

98

96.2

96 1 96.1

96.7

96

million bags

94 92 90

89.6

91.6

91.1

90.9 88.8

87.6

88

86.4 86 84 82 80 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010*

*Preliminary

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Value of coffee exports Calendar years 2000 to 2010 18 16.5 15.4

16 14

12.8

billion US dollars

12

13.3

10.8

10

9.3 8.2

8 6

6.9 5.4

5.2

5.6

4 2 0

*Estimated

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

7

World Coffee Conference Guatemala, 26-28 February 2010

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Challenges: The way forward 1 1. Economic and policy environment: infrastructure; interest rates; exchange rates; and labour costs. 2. Basic and applied research: mapping of the coffee genome; conservation of genetic diversity and biodiversity; methods to manage pests and diseases; development of new varieties that are resistant to pests and diseases as well as better adapted to climate change; g ; increases in yields; y ; improvement p in coffee quality; alternative uses of coffee byproducts; reduction in the use of water in cultivation and postharvest processing; measurement of carbon and water footprint; and food safety. International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

8

Challenges: The way forward 2 3. Capacity-building and strengthening of institutions and d support services i 4. Good agricultural practices: better fertility; erosion control; harvesting techniques; mechanization; integrated pest management; post-harvest processing 5. Diversification and multi-functionality: reduce excessive dependence on single product; seek complementary sources of income, such as other crops, livestock and ecotourism.

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Challenges: The way forward 3 6. Finance and risk management: favourable credit conditions; financing for stocks, renewal of plantations, infrastructure and inputs; microfinance; protection (hedges) against price volatility; and weather risk insurance. 7. Value addition: Diferentiation (for example, by quality, certification or verification prgrammes, prgrammes geographical indications, indications trademarks and other initiatives)  Industrialization

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

9

Challenges: The way forward 4 8. Information and market transparency 9 Environmental sustainability 9.  Climate change: adaptation and mitigation strategies  Carbon and water footprint  Competing uses for land

10. Social sustainability  Empowering women  Aging farmers: Introduce programmes targeted to attracting young growers to coffee cultivation and stimulating youth entrepreneurship and involvement in sustainability programmes International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Challenges: The way forward 5 11. Economic sustainability  Price levels prevailing on the coffee market in recent years have been insufficient to off-set rising costs and encourage the necessary investment in the expansion of production to meet steadily growing demand.  What will be effect of rising prices in recent months?

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

10

World consumption Calendar years 2000 to 2009 140 129.3

130 120 110

109.8

111 4 111.4

2001

2002

119.9

120.7

2004

2005

132.2

131.2

134.0

2008

2009

2010*

124.4

114.0

105.5

100

million bags

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000

2003

2006

2007

*Estimated

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Estimated consumption: 10 leading markets by volume World total USA Brazil Germany Japan France Italy Russian Federation Canada Spain United Kingdom

2009 2010* million bags 131 2 131.2 134 0 134.0 21.4 21.8 18.2 18.9 8.9 9.3 7.1 7.2 5.7 5.9 58 5.8 58 5.8 3.1 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1

% change 21 2.1 1.6 4.1 4.4 0.7 4.0 -0.4 04 16.9 8.9 -3.6 -3.3

*Estimated

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

11

World coffee consumption Evolution 2000 – 2010 (in thousand bags)

Change         (2010)‐(2000) (2010) (2000) 2000

2010* Volume

Traditional markets 63 367 70 837

Period  growth  rate (%)

%

7 470 26.2%

1.1

Producing countries

26 385 40 280 13 895 48.8%

4.3

Emerging markets

15 750 22 883 7 133 25.0%

3.8

World total

105 502 134 000 28 498

2.4

*Estimated

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

World Coffee Consumption: Traditional markets Evolution 2000 – 2010 (in thousand 60-kg bags)

2000 European Union Belgium Germany France Italy Spain United Kingdom Japan USA

38 024 1 133 8 770 5 402 5 149 2 991 2 342 6 626 18 746

2010* 40 069 871 9 292 5 902 5 781 3 231 3 115 7 181 21 784

Growth rate (%) 0.5 -2.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.8 2.9 0.8 1.5

*Estimated

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

12

World coffee consumption: Producing countries Evolution 2000 – 2010 (in thousand 60-kg bags)

2000

2010*

26 385 40 283 13 075 18 945 1 664 3 333 1 938 3 253 1 189 2 239 938 1 400 7 581 11 113

Total Brazil Indonesia Ethiopia Mexico India Others

Growth rate (%)

+4.3 +3.8 +7.2 +5.3 5.3 +6.5 +4.1 +3.9

*Estimated

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

World coffee consumption: Emerging markets Evolution 2000 – 2010* (in thousand 60-kg bags)

2000 Total Russian Federation Algeria Korea Republic Korea, Rep blic of Ukraine Australia South Africa

15 750 1 863 1 779 1 246 179 832 368

Growth 2010* 2010 rate (%) 22 883 +3.8 3 661 +7.0 1 850 +1.2 1 666 +3.0 +3 0 1 485 +23.6 1 370 +5.1 553 +4.2

*Estimated

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

13

Belgium: consumption of all forms of coffee Calendar years 1990 to 2010 1 800 1 579

1 600

1 537

1 484 1 396

1 400

000 bags

1 200

1 309

1 073

1 103

1 039

958

1 000

886 800

1 158

1 133

1 124

789 708

834

934

884

696

871

650

600

400

200

0

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Belgium: imports, re-exports and net imports Calendar years 2005 to 2010 Imports

Re-exports Net imports (000 b bags))

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

4 063 4 605 4 014 6 792 5 916 5 924

2 905 3 067 2 911 6 142 4 981 5 053

1 158 1 537 1 103 650 934 871

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

14

Belgium: retail prices of roasted coffee Current and constant 2005 terms 18

16

14

€ per kg

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

current terms

2005 terms

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Per capita consumption (in kg) in selected countries in 2010 Finland Denmark e a Norway Switzerland Sweden Germany Canada Brazil Italy France Belgium USA Japan Russian Federation

2010 12.16 9.466 9. 9.30 8.02 7.92 6.78 6.41 5.87 5.79 5.68 4.91 4.15 3.39 1.56

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

15

Belgium: imports of green coffee by origin and by type* in 2010 Arabica Robusta

Brazil Vi t Vietnam Honduras Peru Uganda Germany Colombia Indonesia Ethi i Ethiopia Mexico Guatemala Nicaragua Others Total

Volume (60‐kg bags)

95% 5% 1 444 444 0 100% 839 327 100% 0% 522 815 100% 0% 367 074 37% 63% 223 642 unspecified 192 223 100% 0% 182 593 46% 54% 143 791 100% 0% 135 034 100% 0% 131 009 100% 0% 121 563 100% 0% 106 354 unspecified 797 583 5 207 450

share

27.7% 16 1% 16.1% 10.0% 7.0% 4.3% 3.7% 3.5% 2.8% 2 6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 15.3% 100%

*Based on declared exports

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

Belgium: % imports of green coffee by type* Calendar years 1990 to 2010 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Arabica

Robusta

Unspecified

*Based on declared exports

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

16

Belgium: inventories of green coffee as at 31 December 8 7.3

7

6

5.9

5.7 5.3

5.3

4.9

million bags

5 4.5

4.6

4.0

4

4.0

3 2.2

2 1.4

1.5 1.1

1

0.8

0.9

0.9 0.5

0.8

1.0

0.5

0

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

17

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

18

Thank you y Merci beaucoup Heel erg bedankt

www.ico.org International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org

19