Outlook for US shale oil and gas
Outlook for U.S. shale oil and gas
North American Oil and Gas Infrastructure Working Group Center for Strategic & International Studies Energy Program February 18, 2014 | Washington, DC
By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. output U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History
40
billion cubic feet per day Projections
2012
100
35
90 30
80
25
70 60
Shale gas
20
50
15 10 5
40 Tight gas
Non-associated onshore
30 20
Non-associated offshore
0 1990
Associated with oil Coalbed methane 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Alaska
2035
10
0 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
2
U.S. natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet 35
History
Projections
30 11.0
25
Electric power
8.5
20
11.2
15
Industrial*
9.1 10
0.7 2.9
5
4.2
1.7
Transportation**
3.6
Commercial
4.1
Residential
0 2005
2012
2020
2025
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
2030
2035
2040
*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel
3
U.S. manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu
billion cubic feet per day
9
24
8 20
Refining and related
7 6
16
Bulk chemicals
5
12
4 Food Iron and steel Metal based durables Paper Other manufacturing
3 2 1 0
2010
Glass
8
4
0 Aluminum
2025
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
4
U.S. natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucks natural gas use by mode trillion Btu
billion cubic feet per day
900
2.5
800 Approximate crude oil equivalent, (thousand barrels per day) 2040 Freight trucks 290 Freight rail and marine 71 Buses 38 Light-duty vehicles 9
700 600 500 400
2.0
1.5
Freight trucks
1.0
300 22%
200 100
0.5 Light-duty vehicles
Freight rail and marine Buses
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
0.0 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
5
U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 5 tcf in 2025 U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet per year History 2012 10
billion cubic feet per day Projections 2025
25
5.4 tcf of exports (14.8 bcf/day)
8
20
6
Pipeline exports to Mexico
4
Pipeline exports to Canada Lower 48 states LNG exports
2
Alaska LNG exports
0 -2
Pipeline imports from Canada
-6 2000
10
5 0 -5
LNG imports
2.0 tcf of imports (5.4 bcf/day)
-4
15
-10 -15
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
6
Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History
10
8
Projections
2012
U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970 Tight oil
6
4
Lower 48 offshore Alaska
2 Other lower 48 onshore 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
7
U.S. transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2012 30
Projections 2040
2030
25
20
Motor gasoline
59%
44%
47%
15
Ethanol
4%
10
31%
5
CNG/LNG
1% Jet fuel
12% 3%
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
30%
Diesel
22%
0 Other* 1990 1995
5%
5%
2020
2025
3% 13%
13%
3%
4%
2030
2035
2040
*Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen
8
U.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum products U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day History 4
2012
3
Projections
Distillate exports
2
Motor gasoline exports
Total petroleum product net exports
1
Other petroleum product exports
0
Other petroleum product imports
-1
Motor gasoline imports -2 Distillate imports
-3 -4 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
9
U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines, particularly in the near term U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day
History
25
Projections
2012 2005
2016
2040
20 Consumption
32%
15 Net imports 10
25% 60%
40%
Domestic supply
5
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and draft analysis CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
10
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
11
North American Oil and Gas Infrastructure Working Group Center for Strategic & International Studies Energy Program February 18, 2014 | Washington, DC
By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. output U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History
40
billion cubic feet per day Projections
2012
100
35
90 30
80
25
70 60
Shale gas
20
50
15 10 5
40 Tight gas
Non-associated onshore
30 20
Non-associated offshore
0 1990
Associated with oil Coalbed methane 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Alaska
2035
10
0 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
2
U.S. natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet 35
History
Projections
30 11.0
25
Electric power
8.5
20
11.2
15
Industrial*
9.1 10
0.7 2.9
5
4.2
1.7
Transportation**
3.6
Commercial
4.1
Residential
0 2005
2012
2020
2025
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
2030
2035
2040
*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel
3
U.S. manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu
billion cubic feet per day
9
24
8 20
Refining and related
7 6
16
Bulk chemicals
5
12
4 Food Iron and steel Metal based durables Paper Other manufacturing
3 2 1 0
2010
Glass
8
4
0 Aluminum
2025
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
4
U.S. natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucks natural gas use by mode trillion Btu
billion cubic feet per day
900
2.5
800 Approximate crude oil equivalent, (thousand barrels per day) 2040 Freight trucks 290 Freight rail and marine 71 Buses 38 Light-duty vehicles 9
700 600 500 400
2.0
1.5
Freight trucks
1.0
300 22%
200 100
0.5 Light-duty vehicles
Freight rail and marine Buses
0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
0.0 2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
5
U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 5 tcf in 2025 U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet per year History 2012 10
billion cubic feet per day Projections 2025
25
5.4 tcf of exports (14.8 bcf/day)
8
20
6
Pipeline exports to Mexico
4
Pipeline exports to Canada Lower 48 states LNG exports
2
Alaska LNG exports
0 -2
Pipeline imports from Canada
-6 2000
10
5 0 -5
LNG imports
2.0 tcf of imports (5.4 bcf/day)
-4
15
-10 -15
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
6
Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History
10
8
Projections
2012
U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970 Tight oil
6
4
Lower 48 offshore Alaska
2 Other lower 48 onshore 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
7
U.S. transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2012 30
Projections 2040
2030
25
20
Motor gasoline
59%
44%
47%
15
Ethanol
4%
10
31%
5
CNG/LNG
1% Jet fuel
12% 3%
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
30%
Diesel
22%
0 Other* 1990 1995
5%
5%
2020
2025
3% 13%
13%
3%
4%
2030
2035
2040
*Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen
8
U.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum products U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day History 4
2012
3
Projections
Distillate exports
2
Motor gasoline exports
Total petroleum product net exports
1
Other petroleum product exports
0
Other petroleum product imports
-1
Motor gasoline imports -2 Distillate imports
-3 -4 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
9
U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines, particularly in the near term U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day
History
25
Projections
2012 2005
2016
2040
20 Consumption
32%
15 Net imports 10
25% 60%
40%
Domestic supply
5
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and draft analysis CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
10
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
CSIS Energy Program February 18, 2014
11
