Path Independent Choice and the Ranking of Opportunity Sets

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Path Independent Choice and the Ranking of Opportunity Sets Matthew Ryan University of Auckland

3rd CMSS Workshop

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Theory of Choice

Finite “consumption set” X .

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Theory of Choice

Finite “consumption set” X . A choice function is a mapping c : 2X ! 2X that satis…es:

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Theory of Choice

Finite “consumption set” X . A choice function is a mapping c : 2X ! 2X that satis…es:

(CF0) c (A)

A for each A

Ryan (University of Auckland)

X , and

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Theory of Choice

Finite “consumption set” X . A choice function is a mapping c : 2X ! 2X that satis…es:

(CF0) c (A) A for each A (CF1) c (A) = ∅ i¤ A = ∅.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

X , and

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Theory of Choice

Finite “consumption set” X . A choice function is a mapping c : 2X ! 2X that satis…es:

(CF0) c (A) A for each A (CF1) c (A) = ∅ i¤ A = ∅.

X , and

A choice function is path independent if it also satis…es

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Theory of Choice

Finite “consumption set” X . A choice function is a mapping c : 2X ! 2X that satis…es:

(CF0) c (A) A for each A (CF1) c (A) = ∅ i¤ A = ∅.

X , and

A choice function is path independent if it also satis…es (CF2) For any A, B 2 2X : c (A [ B ) = c (c (A) [ B )

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Theory of Choice

Finite “consumption set” X . A choice function is a mapping c : 2X ! 2X that satis…es:

(CF0) c (A) A for each A (CF1) c (A) = ∅ i¤ A = ∅.

X , and

A choice function is path independent if it also satis…es (CF2) For any A, B 2 2X : c (A [ B ) = c (c (A) [ B )

A path independent choice function is also called a Plott function (after Plott, 1973).

Ryan (University of Auckland)

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Non-Binary Choice

Path independence is not su¢ cient to ensure that the choice function is binary.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

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Non-Binary Choice

Path independence is not su¢ cient to ensure that the choice function is binary. A choice function c : 2X ! 2X is binary if there exists a binary relation % X X such that c (A) = max A %

where max A %

Ryan (University of Auckland)

fx 2 A j there is no y 2 A

Plott Consistent Rankings

fx g with y

xg .

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Non-Binary Choice

Example (Plott, 1973) Let X = fx, y , z g and de…ne c : 2X ! 2X as follows: c (A) =

fx, y g if A = X A if A 6= X

It is easily veri…ed that c is a Plott function. Since c (X ) = fx, y g, we must have x z or y z if c is binary. But these contradict c (fx, z g) = fx, z g and c (fy , z g) = fy , z g, respectively, so c is non-binary.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

De…nition An opportunity set ranking is a binary relation % re‡exive, complete and satis…es A



2X

2X which is

for all A 6= ∅.

Think of ranking restaurants (i.e., menus).

Ryan (University of Auckland)

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

If (meal) choice is governed by the binary relation % X X , then opportunity sets (i.e., restaurants) are naturally ranked according to the following indirect utility (IU) principle: A% B

Ryan (University of Auckland)

,

max (A [ B ) \ A 6= ∅ %

Plott Consistent Rankings

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(IU)

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

If (meal) choice is governed by the binary relation % X X , then opportunity sets (i.e., restaurants) are naturally ranked according to the following indirect utility (IU) principle: A% B

,

max (A [ B ) \ A 6= ∅ %

(IU)

What are the hallmarks of opportunity set rankings that obey the IU principle?

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

Theorem (Kreps, 1979) The opportunity set ranking % satis…es (IU) for some complete, re‡exive and transitive % X X i¤ % is transitive and satis…es A% B for every A, B

)

A

A[B

(K)

X.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

De…nition (Lahiri, 2003) An opportunity set ranking % is justi…able if it satis…es (IU) for some complete and re‡exive (but not necessarily transitive) % X X

Ryan (University of Auckland)

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

The IU principle embodies two fundamental ideas:

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

The IU principle embodies two fundamental ideas: 1

Consequentialism.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

The IU principle embodies two fundamental ideas: 1 2

Consequentialism. Binariness.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

The IU principle embodies two fundamental ideas: 1 2

Consequentialism. Binariness.

Many papers relax (1). We maintain (1) but relax (2).

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Ranking Opportunity Sets By analogy with the IU condition A% B

,

max (A [ B ) \ A 6= ∅, %

we propose:

De…nition An opportunity set ranking % is Plott consistent if there exists a Plott function c : 2X ! 2X such that A% B for any A, B

,

c (A [ B ) \ A 6 = ∅

X.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

We will... 1

Characterise the Plott consistent rankings.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

We will... 1

Characterise the Plott consistent rankings.

2

Compare Plott consistency and justi…ability.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Ranking Opportunity Sets

We will... 1

Characterise the Plott consistent rankings.

2

Compare Plott consistency and justi…ability.

3

Raise a question of interpretation and pose an open problem.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency

1. What are the necessary and su¢ cient conditions (on % ) for Plott consistency?

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency

1. What are the necessary and su¢ cient conditions (on % ) for Plott consistency? It is easy to verify that the Kreps condition A% B

)

A

A[B

(K)

is necessary.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency

1. What are the necessary and su¢ cient conditions (on % ) for Plott consistency? It is easy to verify that the Kreps condition A% B

)

A

A[B

(K)

is necessary. However, transitivity of % is not:

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency

Example (continued) Recall that X = fx, y , z g and c (A) =

fx, y g if A = X A if A 6= X

is a Plott function. Applying Plott consistency, we have: fx, y g and fy g fz g, but fx, y g fz g.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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fy g

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Plott Consistency Theorem Given an opportunity set ranking % , the following are equivalent: (i) % is Plott consistent.

(ii) % satis…es the following conditions for any A, B, C condition (K), plus B

A

)

B [C

A and B

X : the Kreps

A C

(SM)

and

[B

A and B

C] ) B

A[C

(U)

This result is “tight” in that none of (K), (SM) or (U) can be dropped without violating the equivalence.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

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Plott Consistency

The proof of the theorem draws liberally on results from abstract convexity theory, and especially the papers by Aizerman and Malishevski (1981) and Danilov and Koshevoy (2006).

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency

The proof of the theorem draws liberally on results from abstract convexity theory, and especially the papers by Aizerman and Malishevski (1981) and Danilov and Koshevoy (2006). Given an abstract convex geometry on X , consider the complete and re‡exive binary relation % 2X 2X de…ned as follows: A B i¤ all the extreme points of A [ B are contained in A B.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency and Justi…ability

2. What is the relationship between Plott consistency and Justi…ability?

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency and Justi…ability

2. What is the relationship between Plott consistency and Justi…ability? Not all Plott consistent rankings are justi…able – this can be proved using Plott’s example.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency and Justi…ability

2. What is the relationship between Plott consistency and Justi…ability? Not all Plott consistent rankings are justi…able – this can be proved using Plott’s example. Plott consistency permits fundamental non-binariness.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency and Justi…ability

2. What is the relationship between Plott consistency and Justi…ability? Not all Plott consistent rankings are justi…able – this can be proved using Plott’s example. Plott consistency permits fundamental non-binariness.

Neither are all justi…able rankings Plott consistent.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency and Justi…ability

2. What is the relationship between Plott consistency and Justi…ability? Not all Plott consistent rankings are justi…able – this can be proved using Plott’s example. Plott consistency permits fundamental non-binariness.

Neither are all justi…able rankings Plott consistent. Plott consistency imposes quasi-transitivity of % .

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency and Justi…ability

Theorem A justi…able opportunity set ranking % is Plott consistent i¤ it is quasi-transitive.

Ryan (University of Auckland)

Plott Consistent Rankings

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Plott Consistency and Justi…ability

An opportunity set ranking % 2X for any A, B 2 B and any x 2 X ,

fx g % A and fx g % B

2X satis…es Weak Expansion if:

)

fx g % A [ B

(WE)

Theorem A Plott consistent opportunity set ranking % is justi…able i¤ it satis…es Weak Expansion.

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A question of interpretation

3. Can the principles of consequentialism and binariness really be separated?

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A question of interpretation

3. Can the principles of consequentialism and binariness really be separated? Non-binary choice implies context-dependence.

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A question of interpretation

3. Can the principles of consequentialism and binariness really be separated? Non-binary choice implies context-dependence. Is Plott consistency appropriate for context-dependent choice?

Ryan (University of Auckland)

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A question of interpretation Example (continued) X = fx, y , z g and c (A) =

fx, y g if A = X A if A 6= X

Consider the following two-player game:

α β

x , 3 , 0

y , 0 , 3

z , 1 , 1

Then c corresponds to choosing undominated strategies. Can we rule out fx, y g Ryan (University of Auckland)

fx g? Plott Consistent Rankings

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A question of interpretation

Given an opportunity set ranking % , de…ne c (A) = for each A

X.

\

fB

A jB

A Bg

De…nition Say that % is strongly consequentialist if c (A) 6= ∅ for every non-empty A

X , and

A% B

i¤ c (A [ B ) \ A 6= ∅.

In this case, we call c : 2X ! 2X the revealed choice function for % .

Ryan (University of Auckland)

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A question of interpretation

Theorem An opportunity set ranking %

2X

2X is strongly consequentialist i¤

...??? Plott consistency is su¢ cient but not necessary.

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A question of interpretation

Theorem A strongly consequentialist opportunity set ranking % consistent i¤ ...???

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2X

2X is Plott

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