Petroleum Weekly Petroleum Weekly
Petroleum Weekly
15 October 2009
Petroleum Weekly Highlights for this week:
Key stocks: Crude +0.3 mmbbl, gasoline -5.2 mmbbl, distillate -1.1 mmbbl. Cushing stocks +0.4 mmbbl. Refinery capacity utilization was down 4.1% to 80.9% Our projections for next week: Crude +2.0 mmbbl, gasoline -3.1 mmbbl, and distillate stocks -1.5 mmbbl. Refinery capacity utilization unchanged week-over-week This week’s statistics were quite bullish, headlined by a precipitous 4.1% decline in refining runs. Two weeks ago we said: “the current level of margins (roughly expressed by the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack) is pointing to runs falling to a ~6-9% deficit to the 5-year average (omitting hurricane effects).” The drop has finally materialized. The 80.9% figure for US refinery capacity utilization is the second lowest tick in the last five years (when ignoring hurricanes). The lowest point of 80.3% was set this April amidst a rash of delayed refinery turnarounds. Margins are suggesting that runs fall further and challenge this figure. However, even if runs don’t fall, and remain near these levels, then products and cracks will still be supported. Runs should subsequently increase, and the cycle should perpetuate
The long awaited drop in runs has finally happened -2%
$18
Brison Bickerton Energy Strategist (203) 897-5103 [email protected]
3-2-1 Crack ($/bbl)
$15
-4%
$12 -6% $9 -8% $6 -10%
$3 $0
Shane Foster
-12% 1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
3-2-1 NYMEX Crack
Analyst (203) 897-5648
US Refinery Capacity Utilization minus 5 year average
Source: EIA, RBS Sempra
[email protected]
McGregor Ganthier Analyst (203) 897-5548 [email protected]
Gasoline statistics continue to whipsaw, drawing 5.2 mmbbl this week on a 3.6% decline in yield and a ~0.3 mmbbl/d fall in imports. Demand also remains resilient, which coupled with low runs, points to continued draws in the coming weeks
This week perhaps marks a turning point in distillate, with the operative word being perhaps. Demand has firmed in recent weeks and imports remain low, but yield has also marginally increased. Distillate stocks would not have drawn if it were not for the large drop in runs, and if we see any meaningful uptick in runs or yield, or a blip in demand, then stocks will resume building. However, the key factor remains demand, which we believe will hold firm and thus lead to modest draws in the coming weeks
Petroleum Weekly | 15 October 2009
RBS Sempra Commodities
2
Petroleum Weekly
Petroleum Weekly as reported on Oct 15, 2009 Inventory data as of Oct 09, 2009
Department of Energy weekly statistics
RBS Sempra
4 Week Changes 5-Yr Avg equivalent 4 week change
1 week Δ
This Week Consensus Forecast
5-Yr Average 1 Week Δ
337.8
0.3
0.7
4.4
5.0
6.8
Cushing
25.5
0.4
(0.0)
(2.1)
(0.5)
PADD II
76.5
(0.3)
0.4
(1.8)
(1.1)
Gasoline
209.2
(5.2)
0.8
1.7
1.5
3.0
(3.1)
Total distillate
170.7
(1.1)
0.1
(1.7)
2.9
(5.8)
(1.5)
51.4
(0.2)
(0.3)
2.1
(0.6)
(0.5)
Resid fuel oil
35.1
(0.2)
(0.1)
1.2
0.1
1.1
Jet fuel
45.3
(0.4)
(0.2)
0.2
(1.1)
Propane
73.0
0.1
0.4
2.3
3.5
232.4
0.7
(0.9)
(2.4)
0.3
(5.8)
2.8
10.6
1.6
Inventories
2008: Last 4 week change
Week Ahead Forecast
All inventories and changes in millions of barrels
Crude oil
Heating oil
Unfinished oils 3
Total petroleum (ex-SPR)
1,103.4
2.0
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
725.1
0.0
(0.5)
0.5
(2.1)
Key Fuels 2
717.6
(6.0)
1.6
4.5
9.3
4.0
(2.6)
-4.1%
-0.4%
0.0%
-6.1%
-5.0%
0.0%
(0.5)
(0.1)
0.0
(1.0)
(0.8)
Refining Runs
80.9%
Refining Runs(million barrels)
14.10
Sources: 1 US Department of Energy, and Bloomberg & Reuters Survey
2
Key Fuels = Crude+Gasoline+Distillate
3
Does not include Heating oil
US petroleum inventories excluding SPR
US crude inventories w/o SPR
1,150
million barrels
million barrels
1,100 1,050 1,000 950 900 5-Yr Range
2008
5-Yr Average
2009
850
375 360 345 330 315 300 285 270 255 240
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
240
million barrels
million barrels
220 210 200 190 180 5-Yr Average
2009
170 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
5-Yr Average
2009
US distillate inventories
230
2008
2008
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
US gasoline inventories
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Range
180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90
5-Yr Range
2008
5-Yr Average
2009
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
3
Petroleum Weekly
Overview Oct 15, 2009 This week
Last week
10/09/09
10/02/09
WoW Δ
2009
2008
YoY Δ
Gasoline
9,256
9,269
(13)
9,110
8,584
526
6.1%
Jet Kerosene
1,416
1,425
(9)
1,410
1,479
(69)
-4.7%
Distillate
3,557
3,527
30
3,449
3,784
(335)
-8.8%
583
356
227
466
528
(63)
-11.8%
60
0.4%
Petroleum Supplied to Mkt = Apparent Demand (000 bbl/day)
Resid/Fuel Oil Subtotal of the Key 4
14,812
Propane + Other ALL PETRO. PRODUCTS
4 week averages
14,577
235
14,435
14,375
YoY %
4,124
4,156
(32)
4,037
3,732
305
8.2%
18,936
18,733
203
18,764
18,107
656
3.6%
Source: US Department of Energy This week
Last week
10/09/09
10/02/09
Crude
8,731
9,098
(367)
9,289
All Petroleum Products
2,534
2,902
(368)
Gasoline
690
1,011
Distillate
164
Jet Fuel Heating Oil
Imports (000 bbl/day)
4 week averages WoW Δ
YoY Δ
YoY %
9,160
129
1.4%
2,681
3,599
(919)
-25.5%
(321)
895
1,340
(445)
-33.2%
214
(50)
178
163
16
9.7%
89
93
(4)
105
109
(4)
-3.9%
0
0
6
(6)
-100.0%
2009
0
-
This week
Last week
10/09/09
10/02/09
WoW Δ
110%
Gasoline
59.1%
62.7%
-3.6%
105%
Distillate
27.1%
26.9%
0.2%
Heating Oil
3.2%
3.2%
-0.1%
Jet Fuel
9.2%
9.0%
0.3%
Resid
4.6%
4.5%
0.1%
100.1%
103.0%
-2.9%
Sum
100% 95% 90% 85%
5-Yr Range 2009
2008 5-Yr Avg
80%
1
Total Petroleum Products Imported
5,500
Refinery Efficiency
115%
Total Yield
Refining Yields
2008
5
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
Total 4 Week Petroleum Product Demand
22,000
000's barrels per day
000's barrels per day
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000
5-Yr Range 5-Yr Avg.
1,500 1
5
2008 2009
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 5-Yr Range 5-Yr Avg.
17,000
1
5
2008 2009
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
4
Petroleum Weekly
Crude Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Crude Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day US Production 1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
4.57 4.63 4.68 4.78
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
5.30 5.38 5.36 5.38
Forecast 4 weeks 10/16/09 10/23/09 10/30/09 11/06/09
5.38 5.38 5.38 5.38
YoY%
Imports
YoY%
Refinery Inputs
10.16 10.40 10.34 9.97
14.7 15.0 15.0 14.7
14.1 14.6 14.9 14.6
9.79 9.53 9.10 8.73
37.1% 6.1% -12.1% -14.1%
9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00
14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4
14.7 14.6 14.6 14.1 Regression 16141 14.10 14.10 14.15 14.23
-2.8% -2.8% -2.8% 4.6%
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West)
13.78 76.49 180.87 15.34 51.28
(0.7) (0.3) 4.1 (0.1) (2.7)
0.1 15.9 13.2 0.6 (0.2)
Total USA Cushing, OK SPR
337.8 25.54 725.09
0.3 0.4 0.0
29.6 10.6 23.0
million barrels
October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
Crude inventories (mb)
Implied Weekly Build/Draw
DOE Weekly Build/Draw
Ending inventories in mmbbl
4.3 3.3 1.1 0.9
5.6 3.2 0.5 0.1
308 311 312 312
0.36 0.32 -0.15 0.01
2.2 1.9 (0.9) 0.1
2.9 2.8 (1.0) 0.3
336 338 337 338
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.0 2.0 1.6 1.1
SPR
340 342 343 344
US crude inventories excluding-SPR
390 375 360 345 330 315 300 285 270 255 240
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2008
2009
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 PADD III crude oil stocks 200
85
190
80
180
million barrels
million barrels
90
PADD II crude oil stocks
75 70 65
160 150 140
60
130
55 50
170
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2008
2009
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2008
2009
120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Cushing, OK Crude Oil Stocks
6,000
US domestic crude oil production (4wk avg)
35 000's barrels per day
5,600 million barrels
30 25 20 15 10
5,200 4,800 4,400 4,000 3,600
2007
2008
2009
5
2007
2008
2009
2009 weekly
3,200 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5
Petroleum Weekly
Crude Supply and Demand Cont'd
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Crude days coverage adjusted for production
45
750 727
40 million barrels
720
Days
35 30 25 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2008
660 630
10.4
600
0
2009
20 1 4private 7 crude 10 inventories 13 16 19 22by25 28 31crude 34input. 37 Represents divided US refining
690
40 43 46 49 52
1
5
5-Yr Range
9
2008
Capacity
2009
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
Days coverage = Inventories divided by 4-Wk Avg demand - production
Crude oil imports(4wk avg)
10,500
Crude Oil Imports
October 9, 2009
000's barrels per day
1 week Δ
1 year Δ
10,000 PADD I(East)
1,227
(190)
(376)
9,500
PADD II(Midwest)
1,279
(168)
286
9,000
PADD III(Gulf Coast)
4,560
(147)
(1,546)
250
(160)
(36)
PADD V(West)
1,415
298
242
Total
8,731
(367)
(1,430)
PADD IV(Rockies)
8,500 8,000 2008
2009
2009 weekly
7,500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Total US petroleum product exports
US refinery runs - gross Inputs
16,250
1,950 1,750 000's barrels per day
000's barrels per day
15,500 14,750 14,000 13,250 12,500
1,550 1,350 1,150 950 750
11,750 2009
2008
2007
11,000 1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2009
2008
550 1
5
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
6
Petroleum Weekly
Imports by PADD Total US Crude Imports
11,500
Imports Into PADD I
1,800
2008: Last 4 week change
11,000 1,600
10,500 10,000
1,400 kb/d
kb/d
9,500 9,000
1,200
8,500 1,000
8,000 7,500
800
7,000 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
0
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 4 Wk Avg
2009
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 Weekly
600
6,500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Imports Into PADD II
Imports Into PADD III 7,000
1,500 1,400
6,250
kb/d
kb/d
1,300 1,200
5,500
1,100 4,750
1,000 2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 4 Wk Avg
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 Weekly
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 4 Wk Avg
900
4,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1
Imports Into PADD IV
1,800
350
1,600
300
1,400 kb/d
kb/d
400
250
1,000
150
800 2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 4 Wk Avg
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 Weekly
600 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Imports Into PADD V
1,200
200
100
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 Weekly
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 4 Wk Avg
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 Weekly
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7
Petroleum Weekly
Refining by PADD US Refining Capacity Utilization
100%
Refining Capacity Utilization PADD I
105%Last 4 week change 2008: 100%
95% % of capacity utilized
% of capacity utilizied
95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60%
65%
55%
0 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
5-Yr Range
2009
17,395
Capacity
Refining Capacity Utilization PADD II
105%
2009
1,713
Refining Capacity Utilization PADD III
110% 100%
100% % of capacity utilized
95% 90% 85% 80%
90% 80% 70% 60% 50%
75%
40% 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
5-Yr Range
2009
70%
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
30%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Capacity
105%
1
3,583
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Capacity
Refining Capacity Utilization PADD IV
8,325
Refining Capacity Utilization PADD V
95%
100% 90% 95%
% of capacity utilized
% of capacity utilized
% of capacity utilized
2008
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Capacity
5-Yr Avg
50%
60%
90% 85% 80%
85%
80%
75% 75% 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
70% 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Capacity
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
70%
601
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Capacity
3,173
8
Petroleum Weekly
Gasoline Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Gasoline Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day
Refinery Runs 1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
63.3% 60.0% 58.9% 60.7%
9.2 9.0 8.8 9.1
1.5 1.1 0.8 1.0
9.6 9.6 9.9 10.0
8.9 9.1 9.1 9.1
15.1 14.9 15.0 14.3 Ref Cap.
58.9% 61.0% 62.7% 59.1%
8.9 9.1 9.4 8.5
1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7
9.1 10.2 10.0 9.9
8.8 9.1 9.3 9.3
14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4
60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%
8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6
0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9
October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
Gasoline inventories (mb)
Total USA
Imports
Implied consumption
14.5 14.9 15.0 15.0
Forecast 4 weeks 10/16/09 10/23/09 10/30/09 11/06/09
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West)
US Production
57.8 49.4 68.0 6.3 27.6
(0.8) (1.4) (2.3) 0.0 (0.8)
10.8 0.6 3.3 (0.5) 1.1
209.2
(5.2)
15.4
Weekly Build/(Draw)
0.6% 4.5% 6.7% 4.1%
(0.0268042) (0.009630)
Ending inventories in mmbbl
7.0 2.7 (1.5) 1.1
193.788 196.497 194.990 196.113
5.4 (1.7) 2.9 (5.2)
213.109 211.452 214.389 209.159
(3.1) (3.1) (2.8) (2.5)
206.1 203.0 200.2 197.7
US gasoline inventories
240 230 220
million barrels
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
Yield to gasoline
DOE: "Gasoline Supplied to market" YoY%
210 200 190 180 5-Yr Range 5-Yr Average
170
2008 2009
160 1
US refining gasoline yield
62% 58% 54% 50% 5-Yr Range 2008
46%
9,600
4
9,300 9,000 8,700 8,400 8,100 7,800 7,500
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1
DOE gasoline supplied to market (4wk avg)
9,200
8,800 5-Yr Avg. 2009
5-Yr Range 2008
7,200
1,400 000's barrels per day
1
5-Yr Avg. 2009
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 Total gasoline imports(4wk avg)
1,000
800
600 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5
5-Yr Avg. 2009
1,200
2008 2009 Weekly
8,400
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 US weekly gasoline production
9,600 000's barrels per day
66%
000's barrels per day
% yield to gasoline
70%
5
5-Yr Avg 2009
2008 2009 Weekly
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
9
Petroleum Weekly
Gasoline Inventories Finished Gasoline Stocks
160
million barrels
million barrels
140
120
100
80
110 90 70 50
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
5-Yr Range
2009
60
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
30 1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
1
Conventional Gasoline Stocks
135
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
Monthly Ethanol Stocks (per DOE's Monthly Oxygenate Report)
18,000 16,000
125
14,000
115
000's barrels
million barrels
Blending Component Stocks
150 Last 4 2008: week 130change
105 95 85
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000
75 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
4,000
2009
65
5-Yr Range 2008
2,000
1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
5-Yr Avg 2009
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figures from DOE's Monthly Oxygenate Report. Ethanol stocks are aggregated into "unfinished oils" in the weekly statistics.
Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Stocks
60
50 million barrels
55 million barrels
RBOB w/ Alcohol Gasoline Blending Stocks
54
50 45 40
46 42 38
2008
2009
35
2008
34 1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
1
Reformulated Gasoline Avg 4-Wk Implied Consumption
3,500
5
9
2009
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
Conventional Gasoline Avg 4-Wk Implied Consumption
7,000 000's barrels per day
000's barrels per day
6,750 3,250
3,000
2,750
6,500 6,250 6,000 5,750 5,500
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
2,500
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
5,250 1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 10
Petroleum Weekly
Gasoline Component Imports and PADD Stocks US weekly conventional gasoline imports
800
2008: Last 4 week change
700
1,000
000's barrels
600
000's barrels
US weekly blending gasoline imports
1,200
500 400 300
800 600 400
200
200 100 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
5-Yr Range
2009
PADD I gasoline and blending 0 stocks
2009
PADD II gasoline and blending stocks
90
100
80
000's barrels
000's barrels
2008
1 4 7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51
1 4 7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 110
5-Yr Avg
0
0
90 80
70
60 70 2007
2008
2007
2009
1
1 4 7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51
PADD III gasoline stocks
120
4
2009
7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51
PADD IV gasoline stocks
11
110
10
100
9
000's barrels
000's barrels
2008
50
60
90 80 70
8 7 6
2007
2008
2007
2009
60
2008
2009
5 1 4 7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51
1
4
7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51
PADD V gasoline stocks
70 65
000's barrels
60 55 50 45 40 35 30
2007
2008
2009
1 4 7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
11
Petroleum Weekly
Gasoline Flags and Drivers ARA Gasoline Stocks 4-Wk Avg
11,000
2008: Last 4
7,000
5,000 2009 Weekly
2007
2008
2009
3,000 1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 0
North Sea - USAC (37kt) Clean Tanker Rates
400
18
European Simple Gasoline Crack - USA
Percentage of Worldscale
14 300
$ / bbl
10
200
6 2 -2
100
-6 2007
2008
2009
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec
-10 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 NYRBOB - UK BRENT - UK Clean Tanker Rate
RBOB: NY Harbor Cash-Nymex front month
50
35
NYMEX 3-2-1 vs Gulf Coast 3-2-1
30
40
25
30 $ per barrel
cents per gallon
20 10
20 15 10 5
0
0
2009 10/2/2009 Arbitrage # Calculation Europe Fuel Freight NYH price Europe Arb
10/15
10/8
10/1
9/24
9/17
9/10
-10 9/3
000's barrels
9,000
-5 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09
2008
NYMEX 3-2-1
9/25/2009
9/18/2009
9/11/2009
2 Weeks ago 71.05
3 Weeks ago 72.67
4 Weeks ago 76.54
5 Weeks ago 76.93
3.84
3.94
3.84
4.15
76.60
76.82
82.03
86.35
3.93
2.49
3.88
7.68
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
GC 3-2-1
12
Petroleum Weekly
Distillate Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Distillate Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day
Refinery runs
Yield to distillate Production
Imports
Implied consumption
DOE: "Distillate Supplied to market" YoY%
1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
14.5 14.9 15.0 15.0
28.9% 29.7% 29.5% 29.2%
4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4
0.09 0.18 0.27 0.15
4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4
4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
15.1 14.9 15.0 14.3
27.6% 26.4% 26.9% 27.1%
4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9
0.19 0.15 0.21 0.16
3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2
3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6
Forecast 4 weeks 10/16/09 10/23/09 10/30/09 11/06/09
14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4
26.8% 26.6% 26.4% 26.2%
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Ending Weekly inventories in Build/Draw mmbbl
-11.5% -12.3% -10.2% -11.2%
(0.5) 2.2 2.3 1.2
122.1 124.3 126.6 127.8
3.0 0.3 0.7 (1.1)
170.8 171.1 171.8 170.7
(1.5) (1.6) (1.7) (1.8)
169.2 167.6 165.8 164.0
US distillate inventories
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West) Total US
75.7 33.0 46.6 3.3 12.1 170.7
October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ (0.2) 27.2 (0.4) 6.0 (0.5) 14.4 (0.1) 0.4 0.1 0.5 (1.1) 48.5
million barrels
Distillate inventories(mb)
180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90
5-Yr Range
1
5
9
5,000
31%
4,700
000's barrels per day
% yield to distillate
US refining distillate yield 33%
29% 27% 25% 23% 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2008
2009
2008
2009
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 US weekly distillate production
4,400 4,100 3,800 3,500 3,200 2,900 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
2,600
21%
1
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 DOE distillate supplied to market (4wk avg)
4,400 4,000 3,600 3,200 5-Yr Avg.
2008
2009
5
9
400 300 200 100 5-Yr Avg 2009
2009 weekly
2,800
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 Total distillate imports
500 000's barrels per day
4,800 000's barrels per day
5-Yr Avg.
2008 2009 weekly
0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
13
Petroleum Weekly
Distillate Flags and Drivers NYH No.2 premium to NYMEX
2
EU-16 Distillate Stocks - Monthly
430
1 400 million barrels
Cents per gallons
0 -1 -2 -3
370
340
-4 -5 2009 -6 09/03/09
2008
2007 2008
0
310 09/13/09
09/23/09
10/03/09
Jan
10/13/09
USGC No.2 discount to NYMEX
6
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
ARA Gasoil Stocks 4-Wk Avg
24,000
5
21,000
000's of Barrels
4 Cents per gallon
5yr Avg. 2009
3 2 1 0
18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000
-1
2007
-2 09/01/09
$5
2009 09/11/09
09/21/09
2008
2009
2009 Weekly
6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 10/01/09
10/11/09
NYH HO - EU/SGP Gasoil Import Arbitrage
16,000
Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks - Weekly
12,000
000's of Barrels
dollars per barrel
14,000 $0
10,000
-$5
-$10
6,000 Europe
4,000
-$15 Oct07
8,000
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
5-Yr Range
2,000 Jan
Mar
May
5-Yr Avg
Jul
2008
Sep
2009
Nov
14
Petroleum Weekly
Jet Fuel Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Jet Fuel Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day
Refinery runs
Yield to Jet Fuel Production
Imports
DOE: "Jet Fuel Supplied to market" YoY%
-Implied consumption
1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
14.5 14.9 15.0 15.0
9.7% 9.3% 8.6% 8.7%
1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
0.07 0.09 0.04 0.14
1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4
1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
15.1 14.9 15.0 14.3
9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.2%
1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
0.12 0.12 0.09 0.09
1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Ending Weekly inventories in Build/Draw mmbbl
-6.2% -4.4% 0.5% -5.3%
(0.5) 0.3 (0.6) 0.7
36.3 36.6 36.0 36.7
1.0 (0.2) (0.3) (0.4)
46.2 46.0 45.7 45.3
US jet fuel inventories
48 46 October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West)
12.5 8.0 15.1 0.5 9.3
0.3 (0.0) (0.6) (0.1) (0.0)
4.7 0.7 4.1 (0.1) (0.4)
Total US
45.3
(0.4)
9.1
44 million barrels
Jet Fuel inventories(mb)
42 40 38 36 34 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
32 1
11.5%
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 US weekly jet fuel production
1,850
11.0%
1,750
10.5%
000's barrels per day
% yield to jet fuel
5
US refining jet fuel yield
10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
7.5%
1,650 1,550 1,450 1,350 1,250 1,150 5-Yr Range
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
1,050 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1,800
DOE jet fuel supplied to market (4wk avg)
250 000's barrels per day
000's barrels per day
1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
200 150 100 50
2009 weekly
1,100
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
Total jet fuel imports
5-Yr Avg 2009
2008 2009 weekly
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
15
Petroleum Weekly
Heating Oil Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Heating Oil Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day Yield to Heating Oil
Refinery runs
Production
Imports
-Implied consumption
YoY%
Ending Weekly inventories in Build/Draw mmbbl
1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
14.5 14.9 15.0 15.0
2.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.0%
0.37 0.50 0.51 0.45
0.04 0.05 0.08 0.02
0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2
-12.2% #N/A #N/A -50.1%
(0.3) 0.8 0.5 1.7
37.5 38.3 38.7 40.4
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
15.1 14.9 15.0 14.3
2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2%
0.43 0.43 0.49 0.46
0.03 0.02 0.10 0.07
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
-40.5% 4.9% 27.5% 24.6%
1.4 0.4 0.4 (0.2)
50.8 51.2 51.6 51.4
Forecast 2 weeks 10/16/09 10/23/09
14.3 14.3
3.2% 3.2%
0.46 0.46
0.08 0.08
0.6 0.5
(0.5) 0.2
51.0 51.2
Total heating oil inventories
70 60 October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West)
43.5 1.7 5.0 0.1 1.2
(0.1) 0.0 (0.2) 0.0 0.1
15.4 (0.7) (0.6) (0.1) (0.1)
Total
51.4
(0.2)
14.0
million barrels
Heating Oil inventories(mb)
50 40 30 20 5-Yr Range 2008
10
1
5
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
US refining heating oil yield
9.0%
5-Yr Avg 2009
US weekly heating oil production
1,300
7.0%
000's barrels per day
% yield to heating oil
8.0%
6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
1,100 900 700 500 300
2009 5-Yr Range
1.0% 1
6
11
21
26
31
36
41
46
2008
1
6
11
16
1,100 900 700 500 300
21
2008
160
1,300
2008
2009
26
31
36
41
46
51
Total heating oil imports
180
2009 weekly
000's barrels per day
1,500
2009
5-Yr Avg
100
51
HO implied consumption (4wk avg)
1,700 000's barrels per day
16
2009
2009 weekly
140 120 100 80 60 40 20
100
0 1
6
11
16
21
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
26
31
36
41
46
51
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
16
Petroleum Weekly
Resid Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Resid Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day
Refinery runs
Yield to Resid Production
Imports
-Implied consumption
DOE: "Resid Supplied to market" YoY%
1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
14.5 14.9 15.0 15.0
3.9% 3.3% 4.0% 3.6%
0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5
0.26 0.19 0.35 0.35
0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9
0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
15.1 14.9 15.0 14.3
3.6% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6%
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7
0.17 0.38 0.27 0.25
0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9
0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6
Forecast 2 weeks 10/16/09 10/23/09
14.3 14.3
4.6% 4.6%
0.7 0.7
0.40 0.40
0.9 0.9
1.3% 19.1% -4.4% 35.7%
Ending Weekly inventories in Build/Draw mmbbl 0.9 (1.3) 1.3 0.2
38.7 37.4 38.6 38.8
(1.3) 1.3 1.3 (0.2)
32.6 34.0 35.3 35.1
1.1 1.1
36.2 37.3
Total US resid inventories
49 46
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West)
13.8 1.1 16.1 0.2 3.9
0.7 (0.0) (0.7) (0.0) (0.2)
(0.3) (0.3) (2.0) (0.1) (0.9)
Total US
35.1
(0.2)
(3.6)
million barrels
October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
Resid inventories(mb)
43 40 37 34 31 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
28 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
US refining resid yield
5.5%
800
US weekly resid production
000's barrels per day
% yield to resid
5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 5-Yr Range
2.0%
2008
600 500 400
2009 5-Yr Range
1
1,000
4
700 550 400 250
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
650
Total resid imports(4wk avg)
350
200
50
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
2009
500
2009 weekly
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
2008
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
DOE resid supplied to market (4wk avg)
850
5-Yr Avg
300
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
000's barrels per day
000's barrels per day
5-Yr Avg
700
5-Yr Avg 2009
2008 2009 weekly
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
17
Petroleum Weekly
Propane Supply and Demand Summary Y i e Refinery l NGP Prod. d Prod.*
Condensed Propane Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day Call on Gas (Bcf/day) Imports
Implied consumption
DOE: "Propane Supplied to market"
1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
0.51 0.51 0.49 0.53
0.51 0.51 0.49 0.53
1.93 1.95 1.89 2.03
0.12 0.25 0.15 0.25
1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
0.52 0.52 0.55 0.52
0.52 0.52 0.55 0.52
1.98 1.97 2.10 1.98
0.08 0.14 0.11 0.17
0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2
0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1
Weekly Build/Draw Weekly Bcf Build/Draw equivalent
YoY%
Ending inventories in mmbbl
0.3 (0.0) (0.7) 0.0
1 (0) (3) 0
61.2 61.1 60.4 60.4
1.4 0.8 0.0 0.1
5 3 0 0
72.0 72.8 72.9 73.0
11.3% 52.5% 70.1% 9.5%
* 1/2 of propane production from natural gas pipeline
US propane inventories
80 70
PADD I (East) 5.1 PADD II (Midwest) 30.8 PADD III (Gulf Coast) 34.8 PADD IV/V (West) 2.3 Total US
73.0
0.5 (0.5) 0.1 0.0
0.8 5.5 5.8 (0.3)
0.1
11.8
million barrels
October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
Propane inventories(mb)
60 50 40 30 20 4-Yr Range
4-Yr Average
2008
2009
10 1 NG and PN Pricing in $/MMBtu
$22
000's of barrels per day
$18 $16 $/MMBtu
11
$14 $12 $10 $8 $6
16
PN
$2 Oct-07
Oct-08
Feb-09
000's of barrels per day
1,200 1,000 800 600
3-Yr Range 2009 weekly
400 6
11
16
2008 3-Yr Average
21
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
26
31
36
6
16
21
3-Yr Average 2009
26
31
36
41
46
51
46
51
Total propane imports(4wk avg)
400 300 200 100
1 46
51
0
2009
41
11
500
1,800
1
3-Yr Range 2008
1
1,400
46
700
Jun-09
1,600
41
800
DOE propane supplied to market(4wk avg)
2,000
36
900
NG
Jun-08
31
1,000
500 Feb-08
26
1,100
600
$4
21
US propane production
1,200
$20
000's of barrels per day
6
51
-100
6
11
16
4-Yr Range
21
26 2008
31
36 2009
41
2009 weekly
18
Petroleum Weekly
Key petroleum cracks and price relationships NYMEX prompt heating oil crack
$40
Front Month WTI
$160
$35
$140 $120
$25 $20
$BBL
dollars per barrel
$30
$15 $10
$80
75.18
$60
6.41
$5
$100
$40 $0
0
Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
$20 2007
2009
NYMEX prompt RBOB crack
$40
2008
2009
NYMEX prompt 3-2-1 crack
$35
$35 $30
$30 dollars per barrel
dollars per barrel
$25 $20 $15 2.84
$10 $5 $0
$25 $20 $15 $10
($5)
$5
($10)
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
4.03
2009
$0
($15) Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec 5-Yr Range
2008
2009
NYMEX 3-2-1 crack calculated using HU contract until 2006. HU replaced with RBOB contract thereafter.
NYMEX crack calculated using HU contract until 2006. HU replaced with RBOB contract thereafter.
$6
5-Yr Avg
7-Day Avg WTI-Brent Spread
$12
$4
WTI Sweet, Sour Spread
$10
2.02 dollars per barrel
dollars per barrel
$2 $0 -$2 -$4
$8 $6 $4
-$6
2.80 $2
-$8 -$10 Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
$0 2008
2009
Source: Bloomberg Sweet Sour Spread = NYMEX WTI Front Month - WTS Midland
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
19
Petroleum Weekly
Physical US petroleum crack spreads 12 $ per barrel CHI #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
14
15
NYH #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
USGC #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
$30
dollars per barrel
$35
$45 $35 $25 $15 0
$5
NYH #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
USGC #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
$20 $15 $10 $5 $0
($15) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009
2008 7-day avg
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 7-day avg
2009
Chicago RBOB versus WTI Cushing crude
2008 7-day avg
Chicago ULSD versus WTI Cushing Spot
Prompt NYH RBOB crack
Prompt NYH ULSD crack
$40
$30
$35
$25
$30
dollars per barrel
dollars per barrel
CHI #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
$25
($5)
$20 $15 $10 $5 $0
$25 $20 $15 $10 $5
($5) ($10) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 2007 7-day avg
$0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 7-day avg
2009
NYH RBOB versus Bonny Light crude
Prompt USGC RBOB crack $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 ($5) ($10) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009
2008
2007
USGC Mid Unleaded versus Light Lousiana Sweet St. James crude
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
2008 7-day avg
NYH ULSD versus Bonny Light spot crude
$35
Prompt USGC ULSD crack
$30 dollars per barrel
dollars per barrel
17
Prompt Chicago ULSD crack
$40
$55
$35
16
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel
Prompt Chicago RBOB crack
$65
dollars per barrel
13 Gasoline RBOB
$25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009
2008 7-day avg
USGC ULSD versus Light Louisiana Sweet St. James crude
20
Petroleum Weekly
Forward petroleum spreads RBOB Forward Crack Curve 14
Yesterday
1 week ago
1 month ago
1 year ago
$ per barrel
10
6
2
(2) 1
2
3
4
0
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
HO Forward Crack Curve
24
$ per barrel
18
12
6 Yesterday
1 week ago
1 month ago
1 year ago
0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
11
12
WTI - Brent Forward Spread Curve
5
$ per barrel
3
1
`
(1)
(3) Yesterday
1 week ago
1 month ago
1 year ago
(5) 1
2
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
21
Petroleum Weekly
Days Cover Days cover = weekly inventory divided by 4 week average demand
US crude inventories in days
26
26
25
25
24
24
23 22
23 22
21
21
20
20
19
19
0 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
US gasoline inventories in days
27
days cover
days cover
27
5-Yr Range
2009
18
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
18 1
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1
US distillate inventories in days
55
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
US heating oil inventories in days
130
50
110
45 days cover
days cover
90
40 35
70 50
30
30
25 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2006 2008
2009
20
2007 2009
10
1
36
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1
US jet fuel inventories in days
100
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
US resid inventories in days
34 80
30
days cover
days cover
32
28 26 24
60
40
22 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
5-Yr Range
2009
20
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
20 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
22
Petroleum Weekly
Miscellaneous Petroleum Charts YoY Δ of total petroleum product build/draw
4 week avg Δ of total US petroleum inventories w/o SPR
25
15
20 10
15 million barrels
million barrels
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
5 0 -5 1.35
-10
1.50%
-20 '08 minus '07
2009
'09 minus '08 0
-25
5-Yr Avg
-15 1
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Total Key Three Inventories
750
2008
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
4 week avg Δ of total key fuel inventories
10 8
725
6 4 million barrels
million barrels
700 675 650
2 0 -2 -4
625
-6 600
-8 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
575
2009
-10 1
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1
4
2008
5-Yr Avg
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Key Fuels = Crude + Gasoline + Distillate
YoY Total US Petroleum Inventories
20 15
million barrels
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2009
-20 1
4
2008
5-Yr Avg
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
23
Petroleum Weekly
Cash Market Drivers of Products Source: Bloomberg
RBOB: NY Harbor Cash-Nymex front month
20
1.0
16
0.0
12 8 4 0
-1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0
10.4
Retail Gasoline over NYMEX RBOB
$1.40
$1.00
360 cents per gallon
410
$0.80 $0.60 $0.40
10/15
10/8
10/1
Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
9/24
160
60 Jan-04
9/17
210
$0.00 Jan-03
NYMEX Heating Oil
260
110 Jan-02
NYMEX RBOB
310
$0.20 Jan-01
NYMEX Heating Oil, RBOB
460
$1.20
Jan-00
9/10
9/3
10/15
10/8
10/1
9/24
9/10
9/17
-5.0 9/3
-4
dollars per gallon
Heating Oil: NY Harbor Cash-Nymex front month
2.0
cents per gallon
cents per gallon
24
Spread calculated using NYMEX HU prices until 2006. NYMEX HU replaced with RBOB contract thereafter.
NYMEX HU contract used until 2006. NYMEX HU replaced with RBOB contract thereafter.
Source: Department of Energy via Bloomberg
RBOB Minus Heating Oil Futures Curve
20
10/13/2009
10/6/2009
10/13/2008
HU 3 year avg
10
cents per gallon
0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
HU - HO until 2006, RBOB - HO thereafter
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
24
Petroleum Weekly
Gasoline
609.75 73.20
9/11/2009 Europe
Asia 605.36 72.67
640.80 76.93
21
Asia
18
641.26 76.98
Freight rate World scale rates $/BBL Cost to ship ($/BBL)
67.50 1.18 74.38
200.00 4.88 77.55
100.00 1.74 78.67
220.00 5.36 82.35
US prices ($/BBL) New York harbor Gulf coast West coast Arbitrage
79.44 77.87 74.32 5.07
79.44 77.87 74.32 -3.23
86.35 78.72 90.00 7.68
86.35 78.72 90.00 7.66
cents per gallon
10/9/2009 Europe Fuel cost $/MT $/BBL
Clean tanker rates to the US
24
4/9/2009
15 12 9 6 3 0 2005
2006
UK
Singapore
2007
2008
2009
1 week average prices
$170 NYRBOB
GCG
EG
JG
dollars per barrel
$150 $130 $110 $90 $70 $50 $30 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
EG: Premium Unleaded FOB Rotterdam Barge JG: Unleaded Japan Cargo C&F
NYRBOB: Premium RBOB NY Barge GCG: Super Premium Unleaded US Gulf Coast Pipe
Import Arbitrage
$40
Europe
Asia
dollars per barrel
$30 $20 $10 $0 -$10 -$20 2005
000's barrels imports/day
2000
2006
Imports (4 week avg.)
2007
2008
2009
Imports (1 week)
1600
1200
800
400 2005
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
2006
2007
2008
2009
25
Petroleum Weekly
Distillates
627.04 75.28
Asia 611.86 73.45
9/11/2009 Europe 555.50 74.56
21
Asia 632.96 75.99
Freight rate World scale rates $/BBL Cost to ship ($/BBL)
67.50 1.18 76.45
200.00 4.88 78.33
100.00 1.74 76.31
220.00 5.36 81.35
US prices ($/BBL) New York harbor Gulf coast West coast Arbitrage
75.44 75.24 78.13 -1.01
75.44 75.24 78.13 -0.19
72.46 72.02 78.30 1.99
72.46 72.02 78.30 -3.05
18 cents per gallon
10/9/2009 Europe Fuel cost $/MT $/BBL
Clean tanker rates to the US
24
4/9/2009
15 12 9 6 UK
3 0 2005
2006
2007
Singapore
2008
2009
1 week average prices
$180 NYD
GCD
ED
dollars per barrel
$160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 Oct 07
Jan 08
Apr 08
Jul 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
Jul 09
Oct 09
ED: Gasoil 0.2 FOB Rotterdam Barges SD: Gsl .25% Singapore Cargo FOB
NYD: No. 2 New York Barge Spot
Import Arbitrage
$10
Europe
Asia
dollars per barrel
$5 $0 -$5
-$10 -$15 -$20
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
800 Imports (4 week avg.)
Imports (1 week)
000's barrels imported/day
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2005
2006
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
2007
2008
2009
26
Petroleum Weekly
Fuel Oil
Freight rate World scale rates $/BBL Cost to ship ($/BBL) US prices ($/BBL) New York harbor Gulf coast West coast Arbitrage
Asia
9/11/2009 Europe
Asia
21 18
407.75 48.95
423.71 50.87
414.45 49.75
429.62 51.57
67.50 1.18 50.13
200.00 4.88 55.74
100.00 1.74 51.50
220.00 5.36 56.94
#N/A 63.63 69.37 13.50
#N/A 63.63 69.37 13.63
#N/A 65.31 72.20 13.81
cents per gallon
10/9/2009 Europe Fuel cost $/MT $/BBL
Clean tanker rates to the US
24
4/9/2009
15 12 9 6
#N/A 65.31 72.20 15.26
3 UK
0 2005
2006
2007
Singapore
2008
2009
1 week average prices
$155 NYF
$140
GCF
EF
dollars per barrel
$125 $110 $95 $80 $65 $50 $35 $20 2005
2006
2007
NYF: No.6 1.0 New York Spot Barge GCF: No. 6 3.0 US Gulf Water
2009
EF: 1% LSFO FOB Rotterdam Barge SF: HSFO180 Singapore Cargo
Import Arbitrage
$30 dollars per barrel
2008
Europe
$20
$10
$0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2008
2009
000's barrels imported/day
1000 Imports (4 week avg.)
Imports (1 week)
800 600 400 200 0 2005
2006
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
2007
27
Petroleum Weekly
CFTC Commitments of Traders Reporting Crude non-commercial traders 10/13/2009 10/6/2009
Change
Futures & Options Long positions Short positions Net position
234,594 (104,154) 130,440
234,594 (104,154) 130,440
0 0 0
Futures only Long positions Short positions Net position
235,569 (185,563) 50,006
235,569 (185,563) 50,006
0 0 0
Options only Long positions Short positions Net position
(975) 81,409 80,434
(975) 81,409 80,434
0 0 0
Crude: Gross longs, shorts, net: Speculators
Crude: Gross longs, shorts, net: Commercials
400
2,000 1,500 Futures & Options (000s)
200 100 0 (100) (200)
500 0 (500) (1,000) (1,500) (2,000) Comm Longs
150
14%
1,400
12%
1,200
10%
1,000
600
4%
400
2%
200
(150)
0%
0
(200)
(50) (100)
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
Feb-09
Oct-08
Feb-08
Net Comm (mm bbl) Oct-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
Jun-06
Feb-06
Oct-09
Jun-09
Feb-09
Oct-08
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Jun-07
Net Specs (mm bbl) Feb-07
Feb-09
0
6%
Oct-06
Oct-08
50
Jun-08
million barrels
100
800
Jun-06
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
Jun-06
Crude: Specs vs. Commercials
ImpVol
8%
Feb-06
Oct-09
1,600
Oct-09
16%
Jun-09
200
Oct-05
Net Comm
Jun-09
1,800
Feb-06
Oct-05
Oct-09
Crude Open Interest and volatility 18% Open Interest
Comm Shorts
(2,500) Jun-09
Feb-09
Jun-08
Oct-08
Net Spec
Feb-08
Jun-07
Oct-07
Spec Shorts
Feb-07
Jun-06
Feb-06
Oct-05
Oct-06
Spec Longs
(300)
Implied Vol %
1,000
Oct-05
Futures & Options (000s)
300
28
Petroleum Weekly
Contacts and Disclaimer Research Brison Bickerton Matt Corbett Shane Foster McGregor Ganthier Belinda Zheng
Calgary Office (203) 897-5103 (203) 897-5549 (203) 897-5648 (203) 897-5548 (203) 897-5523
650, 440 - 2nd Ave. S.W. Calgary, Alberta Canada T2P 5E9 Telephone: (403) 750-2450 Fax: (403) 269-8432
Meteorology Carl Altoe Christopher Shabbott
(203) 897-5189 (203) 897-5104
Toronto Office Stamford Office 600 Washington Blvd Stamford, CT 06901 Telephone: Fax: Contacts: Stefanie Katz Scott LaShelle Jackie Mitchell Hugh Gleason Elizabeth Dwyer
(203) 897-5000 (203) 897-5010 (203) 897-5060 (203) 897-5087 (203) 897-5050 (203) 897-5085 (203) 897-5052
Houston Office 2500 CityWest Blvd, Suite 1800 Houston, TX 77042 Telephone: Fax: Contacts: Greg Hebrank
(281) 716-4001 (281) 877-7860 (281) 716-4001
Newport Beach Office 170 Newport Center Drive Newport Beach, CA 92660 Telephone: Fax: Contact:
(949) 759-1939 (714) 996-9950 Damon Suter
London Office 155 Bishopsgate London ECM2 3TZ Telephone: Fax: Contact:
150 King Street West Suite 2310, P.O. 37 Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 1J9 Telephone: Fax: Contact:
(416) 205-4540 (416) 205-4555 Lou Draginov
Sudbury Office 3144 Lammi Road Sudbury, Ontario Canada P3G 1M6 Telephone: Fax: Contact:
(705) 522-0277 (705) 522-9216 Brent Edwards
Costa Mesa Office 3445 Kings Court Costa Mesa, CA 92626 Telephone: (714) 557-5142 Fax: (714) 444-4924 Contact: Perssy Mergeanian
Singapore Office One Temasek Avenue 37-04 Millenia Tower Singapore Contacts: Nick Croom Michael Livingston
(65) 6332-5146 (65) 6332-5088
44 (0)20 7847 1195 44 (0)20 7847 1235 Malcolm Elderfield
Copyright ©2008 RBS SEMPRA COMMODITIES LLP. All rights reserved. RBS Sempra Commodities LLP is a subsidiary of The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. RBS SEMPRA COMMODITIES is the marketing name for the commodities business of The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. Registered in Scotland Co. 90312. Registered Office: 36 St. Andrew Square, Edinburgh EH2 2YB. The daisy device logo, RBS and The Royal Bank of Scotland are trademarks of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc. None of Sempra Energy Trading LLC, Sempra Energy Solutions LLC or any other subsidiary of RBS Sempra Commodities LLP is the same company as the utility, SDG&E or SoCalGas, and none of such RBS Sempra Commodities LLP subsidiaries is regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission. This report reflects the current views of RBS Sempra Commodities and is intended for informational purposes only. RBS Sempra Commodities may make investment, hedging and trading decisions inconsistent with the views expressed in this report and/or based on information not reflected in this report. RBS Sempra Commodities assumes no obligation to advise of any changes in its views and assumes no responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided or any loss suffered. RBS Sempra Commodities does not act as a fiduciary or financial, investment or commodity trading advisor for its customers, each of which is responsible for its own investment, hedging and trading decisions.
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
29
15 October 2009
Petroleum Weekly Highlights for this week:
Key stocks: Crude +0.3 mmbbl, gasoline -5.2 mmbbl, distillate -1.1 mmbbl. Cushing stocks +0.4 mmbbl. Refinery capacity utilization was down 4.1% to 80.9% Our projections for next week: Crude +2.0 mmbbl, gasoline -3.1 mmbbl, and distillate stocks -1.5 mmbbl. Refinery capacity utilization unchanged week-over-week This week’s statistics were quite bullish, headlined by a precipitous 4.1% decline in refining runs. Two weeks ago we said: “the current level of margins (roughly expressed by the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack) is pointing to runs falling to a ~6-9% deficit to the 5-year average (omitting hurricane effects).” The drop has finally materialized. The 80.9% figure for US refinery capacity utilization is the second lowest tick in the last five years (when ignoring hurricanes). The lowest point of 80.3% was set this April amidst a rash of delayed refinery turnarounds. Margins are suggesting that runs fall further and challenge this figure. However, even if runs don’t fall, and remain near these levels, then products and cracks will still be supported. Runs should subsequently increase, and the cycle should perpetuate
The long awaited drop in runs has finally happened -2%
$18
Brison Bickerton Energy Strategist (203) 897-5103 [email protected]
3-2-1 Crack ($/bbl)
$15
-4%
$12 -6% $9 -8% $6 -10%
$3 $0
Shane Foster
-12% 1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
3-2-1 NYMEX Crack
Analyst (203) 897-5648
US Refinery Capacity Utilization minus 5 year average
Source: EIA, RBS Sempra
[email protected]
McGregor Ganthier Analyst (203) 897-5548 [email protected]
Gasoline statistics continue to whipsaw, drawing 5.2 mmbbl this week on a 3.6% decline in yield and a ~0.3 mmbbl/d fall in imports. Demand also remains resilient, which coupled with low runs, points to continued draws in the coming weeks
This week perhaps marks a turning point in distillate, with the operative word being perhaps. Demand has firmed in recent weeks and imports remain low, but yield has also marginally increased. Distillate stocks would not have drawn if it were not for the large drop in runs, and if we see any meaningful uptick in runs or yield, or a blip in demand, then stocks will resume building. However, the key factor remains demand, which we believe will hold firm and thus lead to modest draws in the coming weeks
Petroleum Weekly | 15 October 2009
RBS Sempra Commodities
2
Petroleum Weekly
Petroleum Weekly as reported on Oct 15, 2009 Inventory data as of Oct 09, 2009
Department of Energy weekly statistics
RBS Sempra
4 Week Changes 5-Yr Avg equivalent 4 week change
1 week Δ
This Week Consensus Forecast
5-Yr Average 1 Week Δ
337.8
0.3
0.7
4.4
5.0
6.8
Cushing
25.5
0.4
(0.0)
(2.1)
(0.5)
PADD II
76.5
(0.3)
0.4
(1.8)
(1.1)
Gasoline
209.2
(5.2)
0.8
1.7
1.5
3.0
(3.1)
Total distillate
170.7
(1.1)
0.1
(1.7)
2.9
(5.8)
(1.5)
51.4
(0.2)
(0.3)
2.1
(0.6)
(0.5)
Resid fuel oil
35.1
(0.2)
(0.1)
1.2
0.1
1.1
Jet fuel
45.3
(0.4)
(0.2)
0.2
(1.1)
Propane
73.0
0.1
0.4
2.3
3.5
232.4
0.7
(0.9)
(2.4)
0.3
(5.8)
2.8
10.6
1.6
Inventories
2008: Last 4 week change
Week Ahead Forecast
All inventories and changes in millions of barrels
Crude oil
Heating oil
Unfinished oils 3
Total petroleum (ex-SPR)
1,103.4
2.0
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
725.1
0.0
(0.5)
0.5
(2.1)
Key Fuels 2
717.6
(6.0)
1.6
4.5
9.3
4.0
(2.6)
-4.1%
-0.4%
0.0%
-6.1%
-5.0%
0.0%
(0.5)
(0.1)
0.0
(1.0)
(0.8)
Refining Runs
80.9%
Refining Runs(million barrels)
14.10
Sources: 1 US Department of Energy, and Bloomberg & Reuters Survey
2
Key Fuels = Crude+Gasoline+Distillate
3
Does not include Heating oil
US petroleum inventories excluding SPR
US crude inventories w/o SPR
1,150
million barrels
million barrels
1,100 1,050 1,000 950 900 5-Yr Range
2008
5-Yr Average
2009
850
375 360 345 330 315 300 285 270 255 240
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
240
million barrels
million barrels
220 210 200 190 180 5-Yr Average
2009
170 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
5-Yr Average
2009
US distillate inventories
230
2008
2008
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
US gasoline inventories
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Range
180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90
5-Yr Range
2008
5-Yr Average
2009
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
3
Petroleum Weekly
Overview Oct 15, 2009 This week
Last week
10/09/09
10/02/09
WoW Δ
2009
2008
YoY Δ
Gasoline
9,256
9,269
(13)
9,110
8,584
526
6.1%
Jet Kerosene
1,416
1,425
(9)
1,410
1,479
(69)
-4.7%
Distillate
3,557
3,527
30
3,449
3,784
(335)
-8.8%
583
356
227
466
528
(63)
-11.8%
60
0.4%
Petroleum Supplied to Mkt = Apparent Demand (000 bbl/day)
Resid/Fuel Oil Subtotal of the Key 4
14,812
Propane + Other ALL PETRO. PRODUCTS
4 week averages
14,577
235
14,435
14,375
YoY %
4,124
4,156
(32)
4,037
3,732
305
8.2%
18,936
18,733
203
18,764
18,107
656
3.6%
Source: US Department of Energy This week
Last week
10/09/09
10/02/09
Crude
8,731
9,098
(367)
9,289
All Petroleum Products
2,534
2,902
(368)
Gasoline
690
1,011
Distillate
164
Jet Fuel Heating Oil
Imports (000 bbl/day)
4 week averages WoW Δ
YoY Δ
YoY %
9,160
129
1.4%
2,681
3,599
(919)
-25.5%
(321)
895
1,340
(445)
-33.2%
214
(50)
178
163
16
9.7%
89
93
(4)
105
109
(4)
-3.9%
0
0
6
(6)
-100.0%
2009
0
-
This week
Last week
10/09/09
10/02/09
WoW Δ
110%
Gasoline
59.1%
62.7%
-3.6%
105%
Distillate
27.1%
26.9%
0.2%
Heating Oil
3.2%
3.2%
-0.1%
Jet Fuel
9.2%
9.0%
0.3%
Resid
4.6%
4.5%
0.1%
100.1%
103.0%
-2.9%
Sum
100% 95% 90% 85%
5-Yr Range 2009
2008 5-Yr Avg
80%
1
Total Petroleum Products Imported
5,500
Refinery Efficiency
115%
Total Yield
Refining Yields
2008
5
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
Total 4 Week Petroleum Product Demand
22,000
000's barrels per day
000's barrels per day
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000
5-Yr Range 5-Yr Avg.
1,500 1
5
2008 2009
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 5-Yr Range 5-Yr Avg.
17,000
1
5
2008 2009
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
4
Petroleum Weekly
Crude Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Crude Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day US Production 1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
4.57 4.63 4.68 4.78
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
5.30 5.38 5.36 5.38
Forecast 4 weeks 10/16/09 10/23/09 10/30/09 11/06/09
5.38 5.38 5.38 5.38
YoY%
Imports
YoY%
Refinery Inputs
10.16 10.40 10.34 9.97
14.7 15.0 15.0 14.7
14.1 14.6 14.9 14.6
9.79 9.53 9.10 8.73
37.1% 6.1% -12.1% -14.1%
9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00
14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4
14.7 14.6 14.6 14.1 Regression 16141 14.10 14.10 14.15 14.23
-2.8% -2.8% -2.8% 4.6%
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West)
13.78 76.49 180.87 15.34 51.28
(0.7) (0.3) 4.1 (0.1) (2.7)
0.1 15.9 13.2 0.6 (0.2)
Total USA Cushing, OK SPR
337.8 25.54 725.09
0.3 0.4 0.0
29.6 10.6 23.0
million barrels
October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
Crude inventories (mb)
Implied Weekly Build/Draw
DOE Weekly Build/Draw
Ending inventories in mmbbl
4.3 3.3 1.1 0.9
5.6 3.2 0.5 0.1
308 311 312 312
0.36 0.32 -0.15 0.01
2.2 1.9 (0.9) 0.1
2.9 2.8 (1.0) 0.3
336 338 337 338
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.0 2.0 1.6 1.1
SPR
340 342 343 344
US crude inventories excluding-SPR
390 375 360 345 330 315 300 285 270 255 240
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2008
2009
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 PADD III crude oil stocks 200
85
190
80
180
million barrels
million barrels
90
PADD II crude oil stocks
75 70 65
160 150 140
60
130
55 50
170
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2008
2009
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2008
2009
120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Cushing, OK Crude Oil Stocks
6,000
US domestic crude oil production (4wk avg)
35 000's barrels per day
5,600 million barrels
30 25 20 15 10
5,200 4,800 4,400 4,000 3,600
2007
2008
2009
5
2007
2008
2009
2009 weekly
3,200 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5
Petroleum Weekly
Crude Supply and Demand Cont'd
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Crude days coverage adjusted for production
45
750 727
40 million barrels
720
Days
35 30 25 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2008
660 630
10.4
600
0
2009
20 1 4private 7 crude 10 inventories 13 16 19 22by25 28 31crude 34input. 37 Represents divided US refining
690
40 43 46 49 52
1
5
5-Yr Range
9
2008
Capacity
2009
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
Days coverage = Inventories divided by 4-Wk Avg demand - production
Crude oil imports(4wk avg)
10,500
Crude Oil Imports
October 9, 2009
000's barrels per day
1 week Δ
1 year Δ
10,000 PADD I(East)
1,227
(190)
(376)
9,500
PADD II(Midwest)
1,279
(168)
286
9,000
PADD III(Gulf Coast)
4,560
(147)
(1,546)
250
(160)
(36)
PADD V(West)
1,415
298
242
Total
8,731
(367)
(1,430)
PADD IV(Rockies)
8,500 8,000 2008
2009
2009 weekly
7,500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Total US petroleum product exports
US refinery runs - gross Inputs
16,250
1,950 1,750 000's barrels per day
000's barrels per day
15,500 14,750 14,000 13,250 12,500
1,550 1,350 1,150 950 750
11,750 2009
2008
2007
11,000 1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2009
2008
550 1
5
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
6
Petroleum Weekly
Imports by PADD Total US Crude Imports
11,500
Imports Into PADD I
1,800
2008: Last 4 week change
11,000 1,600
10,500 10,000
1,400 kb/d
kb/d
9,500 9,000
1,200
8,500 1,000
8,000 7,500
800
7,000 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
0
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 4 Wk Avg
2009
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 Weekly
600
6,500
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Imports Into PADD II
Imports Into PADD III 7,000
1,500 1,400
6,250
kb/d
kb/d
1,300 1,200
5,500
1,100 4,750
1,000 2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 4 Wk Avg
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 Weekly
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 4 Wk Avg
900
4,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1
Imports Into PADD IV
1,800
350
1,600
300
1,400 kb/d
kb/d
400
250
1,000
150
800 2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 4 Wk Avg
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 Weekly
600 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Imports Into PADD V
1,200
200
100
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 Weekly
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 4 Wk Avg
2008 4 Wk Avg 2009 Weekly
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
7
Petroleum Weekly
Refining by PADD US Refining Capacity Utilization
100%
Refining Capacity Utilization PADD I
105%Last 4 week change 2008: 100%
95% % of capacity utilized
% of capacity utilizied
95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60%
65%
55%
0 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
5-Yr Range
2009
17,395
Capacity
Refining Capacity Utilization PADD II
105%
2009
1,713
Refining Capacity Utilization PADD III
110% 100%
100% % of capacity utilized
95% 90% 85% 80%
90% 80% 70% 60% 50%
75%
40% 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
5-Yr Range
2009
70%
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
30%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Capacity
105%
1
3,583
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Capacity
Refining Capacity Utilization PADD IV
8,325
Refining Capacity Utilization PADD V
95%
100% 90% 95%
% of capacity utilized
% of capacity utilized
% of capacity utilized
2008
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Capacity
5-Yr Avg
50%
60%
90% 85% 80%
85%
80%
75% 75% 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
70% 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Capacity
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
70%
601
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Capacity
3,173
8
Petroleum Weekly
Gasoline Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Gasoline Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day
Refinery Runs 1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
63.3% 60.0% 58.9% 60.7%
9.2 9.0 8.8 9.1
1.5 1.1 0.8 1.0
9.6 9.6 9.9 10.0
8.9 9.1 9.1 9.1
15.1 14.9 15.0 14.3 Ref Cap.
58.9% 61.0% 62.7% 59.1%
8.9 9.1 9.4 8.5
1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7
9.1 10.2 10.0 9.9
8.8 9.1 9.3 9.3
14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4
60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%
8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6
0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9
October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
Gasoline inventories (mb)
Total USA
Imports
Implied consumption
14.5 14.9 15.0 15.0
Forecast 4 weeks 10/16/09 10/23/09 10/30/09 11/06/09
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West)
US Production
57.8 49.4 68.0 6.3 27.6
(0.8) (1.4) (2.3) 0.0 (0.8)
10.8 0.6 3.3 (0.5) 1.1
209.2
(5.2)
15.4
Weekly Build/(Draw)
0.6% 4.5% 6.7% 4.1%
(0.0268042) (0.009630)
Ending inventories in mmbbl
7.0 2.7 (1.5) 1.1
193.788 196.497 194.990 196.113
5.4 (1.7) 2.9 (5.2)
213.109 211.452 214.389 209.159
(3.1) (3.1) (2.8) (2.5)
206.1 203.0 200.2 197.7
US gasoline inventories
240 230 220
million barrels
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
Yield to gasoline
DOE: "Gasoline Supplied to market" YoY%
210 200 190 180 5-Yr Range 5-Yr Average
170
2008 2009
160 1
US refining gasoline yield
62% 58% 54% 50% 5-Yr Range 2008
46%
9,600
4
9,300 9,000 8,700 8,400 8,100 7,800 7,500
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1
DOE gasoline supplied to market (4wk avg)
9,200
8,800 5-Yr Avg. 2009
5-Yr Range 2008
7,200
1,400 000's barrels per day
1
5-Yr Avg. 2009
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 Total gasoline imports(4wk avg)
1,000
800
600 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5
5-Yr Avg. 2009
1,200
2008 2009 Weekly
8,400
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 US weekly gasoline production
9,600 000's barrels per day
66%
000's barrels per day
% yield to gasoline
70%
5
5-Yr Avg 2009
2008 2009 Weekly
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
9
Petroleum Weekly
Gasoline Inventories Finished Gasoline Stocks
160
million barrels
million barrels
140
120
100
80
110 90 70 50
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
5-Yr Range
2009
60
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
30 1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
1
Conventional Gasoline Stocks
135
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
Monthly Ethanol Stocks (per DOE's Monthly Oxygenate Report)
18,000 16,000
125
14,000
115
000's barrels
million barrels
Blending Component Stocks
150 Last 4 2008: week 130change
105 95 85
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000
75 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
4,000
2009
65
5-Yr Range 2008
2,000
1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
5-Yr Avg 2009
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figures from DOE's Monthly Oxygenate Report. Ethanol stocks are aggregated into "unfinished oils" in the weekly statistics.
Conventional Other Gasoline Blending Stocks
60
50 million barrels
55 million barrels
RBOB w/ Alcohol Gasoline Blending Stocks
54
50 45 40
46 42 38
2008
2009
35
2008
34 1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
1
Reformulated Gasoline Avg 4-Wk Implied Consumption
3,500
5
9
2009
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
Conventional Gasoline Avg 4-Wk Implied Consumption
7,000 000's barrels per day
000's barrels per day
6,750 3,250
3,000
2,750
6,500 6,250 6,000 5,750 5,500
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
2,500
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
5,250 1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 10
Petroleum Weekly
Gasoline Component Imports and PADD Stocks US weekly conventional gasoline imports
800
2008: Last 4 week change
700
1,000
000's barrels
600
000's barrels
US weekly blending gasoline imports
1,200
500 400 300
800 600 400
200
200 100 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
5-Yr Range
2009
PADD I gasoline and blending 0 stocks
2009
PADD II gasoline and blending stocks
90
100
80
000's barrels
000's barrels
2008
1 4 7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51
1 4 7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 110
5-Yr Avg
0
0
90 80
70
60 70 2007
2008
2007
2009
1
1 4 7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51
PADD III gasoline stocks
120
4
2009
7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51
PADD IV gasoline stocks
11
110
10
100
9
000's barrels
000's barrels
2008
50
60
90 80 70
8 7 6
2007
2008
2007
2009
60
2008
2009
5 1 4 7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51
1
4
7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51
PADD V gasoline stocks
70 65
000's barrels
60 55 50 45 40 35 30
2007
2008
2009
1 4 7 10 13 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
11
Petroleum Weekly
Gasoline Flags and Drivers ARA Gasoline Stocks 4-Wk Avg
11,000
2008: Last 4
7,000
5,000 2009 Weekly
2007
2008
2009
3,000 1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 0
North Sea - USAC (37kt) Clean Tanker Rates
400
18
European Simple Gasoline Crack - USA
Percentage of Worldscale
14 300
$ / bbl
10
200
6 2 -2
100
-6 2007
2008
2009
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec
-10 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 NYRBOB - UK BRENT - UK Clean Tanker Rate
RBOB: NY Harbor Cash-Nymex front month
50
35
NYMEX 3-2-1 vs Gulf Coast 3-2-1
30
40
25
30 $ per barrel
cents per gallon
20 10
20 15 10 5
0
0
2009 10/2/2009 Arbitrage # Calculation Europe Fuel Freight NYH price Europe Arb
10/15
10/8
10/1
9/24
9/17
9/10
-10 9/3
000's barrels
9,000
-5 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09
2008
NYMEX 3-2-1
9/25/2009
9/18/2009
9/11/2009
2 Weeks ago 71.05
3 Weeks ago 72.67
4 Weeks ago 76.54
5 Weeks ago 76.93
3.84
3.94
3.84
4.15
76.60
76.82
82.03
86.35
3.93
2.49
3.88
7.68
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
GC 3-2-1
12
Petroleum Weekly
Distillate Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Distillate Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day
Refinery runs
Yield to distillate Production
Imports
Implied consumption
DOE: "Distillate Supplied to market" YoY%
1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
14.5 14.9 15.0 15.0
28.9% 29.7% 29.5% 29.2%
4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4
0.09 0.18 0.27 0.15
4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4
4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
15.1 14.9 15.0 14.3
27.6% 26.4% 26.9% 27.1%
4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9
0.19 0.15 0.21 0.16
3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2
3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6
Forecast 4 weeks 10/16/09 10/23/09 10/30/09 11/06/09
14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4
26.8% 26.6% 26.4% 26.2%
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Ending Weekly inventories in Build/Draw mmbbl
-11.5% -12.3% -10.2% -11.2%
(0.5) 2.2 2.3 1.2
122.1 124.3 126.6 127.8
3.0 0.3 0.7 (1.1)
170.8 171.1 171.8 170.7
(1.5) (1.6) (1.7) (1.8)
169.2 167.6 165.8 164.0
US distillate inventories
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West) Total US
75.7 33.0 46.6 3.3 12.1 170.7
October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ (0.2) 27.2 (0.4) 6.0 (0.5) 14.4 (0.1) 0.4 0.1 0.5 (1.1) 48.5
million barrels
Distillate inventories(mb)
180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90
5-Yr Range
1
5
9
5,000
31%
4,700
000's barrels per day
% yield to distillate
US refining distillate yield 33%
29% 27% 25% 23% 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg.
2008
2009
2008
2009
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 US weekly distillate production
4,400 4,100 3,800 3,500 3,200 2,900 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
2,600
21%
1
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 DOE distillate supplied to market (4wk avg)
4,400 4,000 3,600 3,200 5-Yr Avg.
2008
2009
5
9
400 300 200 100 5-Yr Avg 2009
2009 weekly
2,800
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 Total distillate imports
500 000's barrels per day
4,800 000's barrels per day
5-Yr Avg.
2008 2009 weekly
0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
1
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
13
Petroleum Weekly
Distillate Flags and Drivers NYH No.2 premium to NYMEX
2
EU-16 Distillate Stocks - Monthly
430
1 400 million barrels
Cents per gallons
0 -1 -2 -3
370
340
-4 -5 2009 -6 09/03/09
2008
2007 2008
0
310 09/13/09
09/23/09
10/03/09
Jan
10/13/09
USGC No.2 discount to NYMEX
6
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
ARA Gasoil Stocks 4-Wk Avg
24,000
5
21,000
000's of Barrels
4 Cents per gallon
5yr Avg. 2009
3 2 1 0
18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000
-1
2007
-2 09/01/09
$5
2009 09/11/09
09/21/09
2008
2009
2009 Weekly
6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 10/01/09
10/11/09
NYH HO - EU/SGP Gasoil Import Arbitrage
16,000
Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks - Weekly
12,000
000's of Barrels
dollars per barrel
14,000 $0
10,000
-$5
-$10
6,000 Europe
4,000
-$15 Oct07
8,000
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
5-Yr Range
2,000 Jan
Mar
May
5-Yr Avg
Jul
2008
Sep
2009
Nov
14
Petroleum Weekly
Jet Fuel Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Jet Fuel Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day
Refinery runs
Yield to Jet Fuel Production
Imports
DOE: "Jet Fuel Supplied to market" YoY%
-Implied consumption
1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
14.5 14.9 15.0 15.0
9.7% 9.3% 8.6% 8.7%
1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
0.07 0.09 0.04 0.14
1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4
1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
15.1 14.9 15.0 14.3
9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.2%
1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
0.12 0.12 0.09 0.09
1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Ending Weekly inventories in Build/Draw mmbbl
-6.2% -4.4% 0.5% -5.3%
(0.5) 0.3 (0.6) 0.7
36.3 36.6 36.0 36.7
1.0 (0.2) (0.3) (0.4)
46.2 46.0 45.7 45.3
US jet fuel inventories
48 46 October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West)
12.5 8.0 15.1 0.5 9.3
0.3 (0.0) (0.6) (0.1) (0.0)
4.7 0.7 4.1 (0.1) (0.4)
Total US
45.3
(0.4)
9.1
44 million barrels
Jet Fuel inventories(mb)
42 40 38 36 34 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
32 1
11.5%
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 US weekly jet fuel production
1,850
11.0%
1,750
10.5%
000's barrels per day
% yield to jet fuel
5
US refining jet fuel yield
10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
7.5%
1,650 1,550 1,450 1,350 1,250 1,150 5-Yr Range
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
1,050 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1,800
DOE jet fuel supplied to market (4wk avg)
250 000's barrels per day
000's barrels per day
1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
200 150 100 50
2009 weekly
1,100
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
Total jet fuel imports
5-Yr Avg 2009
2008 2009 weekly
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
15
Petroleum Weekly
Heating Oil Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Heating Oil Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day Yield to Heating Oil
Refinery runs
Production
Imports
-Implied consumption
YoY%
Ending Weekly inventories in Build/Draw mmbbl
1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
14.5 14.9 15.0 15.0
2.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.0%
0.37 0.50 0.51 0.45
0.04 0.05 0.08 0.02
0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2
-12.2% #N/A #N/A -50.1%
(0.3) 0.8 0.5 1.7
37.5 38.3 38.7 40.4
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
15.1 14.9 15.0 14.3
2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2%
0.43 0.43 0.49 0.46
0.03 0.02 0.10 0.07
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
-40.5% 4.9% 27.5% 24.6%
1.4 0.4 0.4 (0.2)
50.8 51.2 51.6 51.4
Forecast 2 weeks 10/16/09 10/23/09
14.3 14.3
3.2% 3.2%
0.46 0.46
0.08 0.08
0.6 0.5
(0.5) 0.2
51.0 51.2
Total heating oil inventories
70 60 October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West)
43.5 1.7 5.0 0.1 1.2
(0.1) 0.0 (0.2) 0.0 0.1
15.4 (0.7) (0.6) (0.1) (0.1)
Total
51.4
(0.2)
14.0
million barrels
Heating Oil inventories(mb)
50 40 30 20 5-Yr Range 2008
10
1
5
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
US refining heating oil yield
9.0%
5-Yr Avg 2009
US weekly heating oil production
1,300
7.0%
000's barrels per day
% yield to heating oil
8.0%
6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
1,100 900 700 500 300
2009 5-Yr Range
1.0% 1
6
11
21
26
31
36
41
46
2008
1
6
11
16
1,100 900 700 500 300
21
2008
160
1,300
2008
2009
26
31
36
41
46
51
Total heating oil imports
180
2009 weekly
000's barrels per day
1,500
2009
5-Yr Avg
100
51
HO implied consumption (4wk avg)
1,700 000's barrels per day
16
2009
2009 weekly
140 120 100 80 60 40 20
100
0 1
6
11
16
21
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
26
31
36
41
46
51
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
16
Petroleum Weekly
Resid Supply and Demand Summary Condensed Resid Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day
Refinery runs
Yield to Resid Production
Imports
-Implied consumption
DOE: "Resid Supplied to market" YoY%
1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
14.5 14.9 15.0 15.0
3.9% 3.3% 4.0% 3.6%
0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5
0.26 0.19 0.35 0.35
0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9
0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
15.1 14.9 15.0 14.3
3.6% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6%
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7
0.17 0.38 0.27 0.25
0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9
0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6
Forecast 2 weeks 10/16/09 10/23/09
14.3 14.3
4.6% 4.6%
0.7 0.7
0.40 0.40
0.9 0.9
1.3% 19.1% -4.4% 35.7%
Ending Weekly inventories in Build/Draw mmbbl 0.9 (1.3) 1.3 0.2
38.7 37.4 38.6 38.8
(1.3) 1.3 1.3 (0.2)
32.6 34.0 35.3 35.1
1.1 1.1
36.2 37.3
Total US resid inventories
49 46
PADD I (East) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf Coast) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West)
13.8 1.1 16.1 0.2 3.9
0.7 (0.0) (0.7) (0.0) (0.2)
(0.3) (0.3) (2.0) (0.1) (0.9)
Total US
35.1
(0.2)
(3.6)
million barrels
October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
Resid inventories(mb)
43 40 37 34 31 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
28 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
US refining resid yield
5.5%
800
US weekly resid production
000's barrels per day
% yield to resid
5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 5-Yr Range
2.0%
2008
600 500 400
2009 5-Yr Range
1
1,000
4
700 550 400 250
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
650
Total resid imports(4wk avg)
350
200
50
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
2009
500
2009 weekly
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
2008
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
DOE resid supplied to market (4wk avg)
850
5-Yr Avg
300
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
000's barrels per day
000's barrels per day
5-Yr Avg
700
5-Yr Avg 2009
2008 2009 weekly
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
17
Petroleum Weekly
Propane Supply and Demand Summary Y i e Refinery l NGP Prod. d Prod.*
Condensed Propane Suppy & Demand: millions of barrels per day Call on Gas (Bcf/day) Imports
Implied consumption
DOE: "Propane Supplied to market"
1 year ago 10/10/08 10/17/08 10/24/08 10/31/08
0.51 0.51 0.49 0.53
0.51 0.51 0.49 0.53
1.93 1.95 1.89 2.03
0.12 0.25 0.15 0.25
1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3
Trailing 4 weeks 09/18/09 09/25/09 10/02/09 10/09/09
0.52 0.52 0.55 0.52
0.52 0.52 0.55 0.52
1.98 1.97 2.10 1.98
0.08 0.14 0.11 0.17
0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2
0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1
Weekly Build/Draw Weekly Bcf Build/Draw equivalent
YoY%
Ending inventories in mmbbl
0.3 (0.0) (0.7) 0.0
1 (0) (3) 0
61.2 61.1 60.4 60.4
1.4 0.8 0.0 0.1
5 3 0 0
72.0 72.8 72.9 73.0
11.3% 52.5% 70.1% 9.5%
* 1/2 of propane production from natural gas pipeline
US propane inventories
80 70
PADD I (East) 5.1 PADD II (Midwest) 30.8 PADD III (Gulf Coast) 34.8 PADD IV/V (West) 2.3 Total US
73.0
0.5 (0.5) 0.1 0.0
0.8 5.5 5.8 (0.3)
0.1
11.8
million barrels
October 9, 2009 1 week Δ 1 year Δ
Propane inventories(mb)
60 50 40 30 20 4-Yr Range
4-Yr Average
2008
2009
10 1 NG and PN Pricing in $/MMBtu
$22
000's of barrels per day
$18 $16 $/MMBtu
11
$14 $12 $10 $8 $6
16
PN
$2 Oct-07
Oct-08
Feb-09
000's of barrels per day
1,200 1,000 800 600
3-Yr Range 2009 weekly
400 6
11
16
2008 3-Yr Average
21
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
26
31
36
6
16
21
3-Yr Average 2009
26
31
36
41
46
51
46
51
Total propane imports(4wk avg)
400 300 200 100
1 46
51
0
2009
41
11
500
1,800
1
3-Yr Range 2008
1
1,400
46
700
Jun-09
1,600
41
800
DOE propane supplied to market(4wk avg)
2,000
36
900
NG
Jun-08
31
1,000
500 Feb-08
26
1,100
600
$4
21
US propane production
1,200
$20
000's of barrels per day
6
51
-100
6
11
16
4-Yr Range
21
26 2008
31
36 2009
41
2009 weekly
18
Petroleum Weekly
Key petroleum cracks and price relationships NYMEX prompt heating oil crack
$40
Front Month WTI
$160
$35
$140 $120
$25 $20
$BBL
dollars per barrel
$30
$15 $10
$80
75.18
$60
6.41
$5
$100
$40 $0
0
Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
$20 2007
2009
NYMEX prompt RBOB crack
$40
2008
2009
NYMEX prompt 3-2-1 crack
$35
$35 $30
$30 dollars per barrel
dollars per barrel
$25 $20 $15 2.84
$10 $5 $0
$25 $20 $15 $10
($5)
$5
($10)
5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
4.03
2009
$0
($15) Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov Dec 5-Yr Range
2008
2009
NYMEX 3-2-1 crack calculated using HU contract until 2006. HU replaced with RBOB contract thereafter.
NYMEX crack calculated using HU contract until 2006. HU replaced with RBOB contract thereafter.
$6
5-Yr Avg
7-Day Avg WTI-Brent Spread
$12
$4
WTI Sweet, Sour Spread
$10
2.02 dollars per barrel
dollars per barrel
$2 $0 -$2 -$4
$8 $6 $4
-$6
2.80 $2
-$8 -$10 Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
$0 2008
2009
Source: Bloomberg Sweet Sour Spread = NYMEX WTI Front Month - WTS Midland
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
19
Petroleum Weekly
Physical US petroleum crack spreads 12 $ per barrel CHI #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
14
15
NYH #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
USGC #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
$30
dollars per barrel
$35
$45 $35 $25 $15 0
$5
NYH #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
USGC #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
$20 $15 $10 $5 $0
($15) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009
2008 7-day avg
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 7-day avg
2009
Chicago RBOB versus WTI Cushing crude
2008 7-day avg
Chicago ULSD versus WTI Cushing Spot
Prompt NYH RBOB crack
Prompt NYH ULSD crack
$40
$30
$35
$25
$30
dollars per barrel
dollars per barrel
CHI #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
$25
($5)
$20 $15 $10 $5 $0
$25 $20 $15 $10 $5
($5) ($10) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 2007 7-day avg
$0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 7-day avg
2009
NYH RBOB versus Bonny Light crude
Prompt USGC RBOB crack $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 ($5) ($10) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009
2008
2007
USGC Mid Unleaded versus Light Lousiana Sweet St. James crude
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
2008 7-day avg
NYH ULSD versus Bonny Light spot crude
$35
Prompt USGC ULSD crack
$30 dollars per barrel
dollars per barrel
17
Prompt Chicago ULSD crack
$40
$55
$35
16
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel
Prompt Chicago RBOB crack
$65
dollars per barrel
13 Gasoline RBOB
$25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009
2008 7-day avg
USGC ULSD versus Light Louisiana Sweet St. James crude
20
Petroleum Weekly
Forward petroleum spreads RBOB Forward Crack Curve 14
Yesterday
1 week ago
1 month ago
1 year ago
$ per barrel
10
6
2
(2) 1
2
3
4
0
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
HO Forward Crack Curve
24
$ per barrel
18
12
6 Yesterday
1 week ago
1 month ago
1 year ago
0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
11
12
WTI - Brent Forward Spread Curve
5
$ per barrel
3
1
`
(1)
(3) Yesterday
1 week ago
1 month ago
1 year ago
(5) 1
2
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
21
Petroleum Weekly
Days Cover Days cover = weekly inventory divided by 4 week average demand
US crude inventories in days
26
26
25
25
24
24
23 22
23 22
21
21
20
20
19
19
0 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
US gasoline inventories in days
27
days cover
days cover
27
5-Yr Range
2009
18
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
18 1
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1
US distillate inventories in days
55
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
US heating oil inventories in days
130
50
110
45 days cover
days cover
90
40 35
70 50
30
30
25 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2006 2008
2009
20
2007 2009
10
1
36
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1
US jet fuel inventories in days
100
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
US resid inventories in days
34 80
30
days cover
days cover
32
28 26 24
60
40
22 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
5-Yr Range
2009
20
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
20 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
22
Petroleum Weekly
Miscellaneous Petroleum Charts YoY Δ of total petroleum product build/draw
4 week avg Δ of total US petroleum inventories w/o SPR
25
15
20 10
15 million barrels
million barrels
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
5 0 -5 1.35
-10
1.50%
-20 '08 minus '07
2009
'09 minus '08 0
-25
5-Yr Avg
-15 1
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Total Key Three Inventories
750
2008
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
4 week avg Δ of total key fuel inventories
10 8
725
6 4 million barrels
million barrels
700 675 650
2 0 -2 -4
625
-6 600
-8 5-Yr Range
5-Yr Avg
2008
2009
575
2009
-10 1
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
1
4
2008
5-Yr Avg
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Key Fuels = Crude + Gasoline + Distillate
YoY Total US Petroleum Inventories
20 15
million barrels
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2009
-20 1
4
2008
5-Yr Avg
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
23
Petroleum Weekly
Cash Market Drivers of Products Source: Bloomberg
RBOB: NY Harbor Cash-Nymex front month
20
1.0
16
0.0
12 8 4 0
-1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0
10.4
Retail Gasoline over NYMEX RBOB
$1.40
$1.00
360 cents per gallon
410
$0.80 $0.60 $0.40
10/15
10/8
10/1
Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
9/24
160
60 Jan-04
9/17
210
$0.00 Jan-03
NYMEX Heating Oil
260
110 Jan-02
NYMEX RBOB
310
$0.20 Jan-01
NYMEX Heating Oil, RBOB
460
$1.20
Jan-00
9/10
9/3
10/15
10/8
10/1
9/24
9/10
9/17
-5.0 9/3
-4
dollars per gallon
Heating Oil: NY Harbor Cash-Nymex front month
2.0
cents per gallon
cents per gallon
24
Spread calculated using NYMEX HU prices until 2006. NYMEX HU replaced with RBOB contract thereafter.
NYMEX HU contract used until 2006. NYMEX HU replaced with RBOB contract thereafter.
Source: Department of Energy via Bloomberg
RBOB Minus Heating Oil Futures Curve
20
10/13/2009
10/6/2009
10/13/2008
HU 3 year avg
10
cents per gallon
0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
HU - HO until 2006, RBOB - HO thereafter
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
24
Petroleum Weekly
Gasoline
609.75 73.20
9/11/2009 Europe
Asia 605.36 72.67
640.80 76.93
21
Asia
18
641.26 76.98
Freight rate World scale rates $/BBL Cost to ship ($/BBL)
67.50 1.18 74.38
200.00 4.88 77.55
100.00 1.74 78.67
220.00 5.36 82.35
US prices ($/BBL) New York harbor Gulf coast West coast Arbitrage
79.44 77.87 74.32 5.07
79.44 77.87 74.32 -3.23
86.35 78.72 90.00 7.68
86.35 78.72 90.00 7.66
cents per gallon
10/9/2009 Europe Fuel cost $/MT $/BBL
Clean tanker rates to the US
24
4/9/2009
15 12 9 6 3 0 2005
2006
UK
Singapore
2007
2008
2009
1 week average prices
$170 NYRBOB
GCG
EG
JG
dollars per barrel
$150 $130 $110 $90 $70 $50 $30 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
EG: Premium Unleaded FOB Rotterdam Barge JG: Unleaded Japan Cargo C&F
NYRBOB: Premium RBOB NY Barge GCG: Super Premium Unleaded US Gulf Coast Pipe
Import Arbitrage
$40
Europe
Asia
dollars per barrel
$30 $20 $10 $0 -$10 -$20 2005
000's barrels imports/day
2000
2006
Imports (4 week avg.)
2007
2008
2009
Imports (1 week)
1600
1200
800
400 2005
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
2006
2007
2008
2009
25
Petroleum Weekly
Distillates
627.04 75.28
Asia 611.86 73.45
9/11/2009 Europe 555.50 74.56
21
Asia 632.96 75.99
Freight rate World scale rates $/BBL Cost to ship ($/BBL)
67.50 1.18 76.45
200.00 4.88 78.33
100.00 1.74 76.31
220.00 5.36 81.35
US prices ($/BBL) New York harbor Gulf coast West coast Arbitrage
75.44 75.24 78.13 -1.01
75.44 75.24 78.13 -0.19
72.46 72.02 78.30 1.99
72.46 72.02 78.30 -3.05
18 cents per gallon
10/9/2009 Europe Fuel cost $/MT $/BBL
Clean tanker rates to the US
24
4/9/2009
15 12 9 6 UK
3 0 2005
2006
2007
Singapore
2008
2009
1 week average prices
$180 NYD
GCD
ED
dollars per barrel
$160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 Oct 07
Jan 08
Apr 08
Jul 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09
Jul 09
Oct 09
ED: Gasoil 0.2 FOB Rotterdam Barges SD: Gsl .25% Singapore Cargo FOB
NYD: No. 2 New York Barge Spot
Import Arbitrage
$10
Europe
Asia
dollars per barrel
$5 $0 -$5
-$10 -$15 -$20
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
800 Imports (4 week avg.)
Imports (1 week)
000's barrels imported/day
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2005
2006
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
2007
2008
2009
26
Petroleum Weekly
Fuel Oil
Freight rate World scale rates $/BBL Cost to ship ($/BBL) US prices ($/BBL) New York harbor Gulf coast West coast Arbitrage
Asia
9/11/2009 Europe
Asia
21 18
407.75 48.95
423.71 50.87
414.45 49.75
429.62 51.57
67.50 1.18 50.13
200.00 4.88 55.74
100.00 1.74 51.50
220.00 5.36 56.94
#N/A 63.63 69.37 13.50
#N/A 63.63 69.37 13.63
#N/A 65.31 72.20 13.81
cents per gallon
10/9/2009 Europe Fuel cost $/MT $/BBL
Clean tanker rates to the US
24
4/9/2009
15 12 9 6
#N/A 65.31 72.20 15.26
3 UK
0 2005
2006
2007
Singapore
2008
2009
1 week average prices
$155 NYF
$140
GCF
EF
dollars per barrel
$125 $110 $95 $80 $65 $50 $35 $20 2005
2006
2007
NYF: No.6 1.0 New York Spot Barge GCF: No. 6 3.0 US Gulf Water
2009
EF: 1% LSFO FOB Rotterdam Barge SF: HSFO180 Singapore Cargo
Import Arbitrage
$30 dollars per barrel
2008
Europe
$20
$10
$0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2008
2009
000's barrels imported/day
1000 Imports (4 week avg.)
Imports (1 week)
800 600 400 200 0 2005
2006
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
2007
27
Petroleum Weekly
CFTC Commitments of Traders Reporting Crude non-commercial traders 10/13/2009 10/6/2009
Change
Futures & Options Long positions Short positions Net position
234,594 (104,154) 130,440
234,594 (104,154) 130,440
0 0 0
Futures only Long positions Short positions Net position
235,569 (185,563) 50,006
235,569 (185,563) 50,006
0 0 0
Options only Long positions Short positions Net position
(975) 81,409 80,434
(975) 81,409 80,434
0 0 0
Crude: Gross longs, shorts, net: Speculators
Crude: Gross longs, shorts, net: Commercials
400
2,000 1,500 Futures & Options (000s)
200 100 0 (100) (200)
500 0 (500) (1,000) (1,500) (2,000) Comm Longs
150
14%
1,400
12%
1,200
10%
1,000
600
4%
400
2%
200
(150)
0%
0
(200)
(50) (100)
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
Feb-09
Oct-08
Feb-08
Net Comm (mm bbl) Oct-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
Jun-06
Feb-06
Oct-09
Jun-09
Feb-09
Oct-08
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Jun-07
Net Specs (mm bbl) Feb-07
Feb-09
0
6%
Oct-06
Oct-08
50
Jun-08
million barrels
100
800
Jun-06
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
Jun-06
Crude: Specs vs. Commercials
ImpVol
8%
Feb-06
Oct-09
1,600
Oct-09
16%
Jun-09
200
Oct-05
Net Comm
Jun-09
1,800
Feb-06
Oct-05
Oct-09
Crude Open Interest and volatility 18% Open Interest
Comm Shorts
(2,500) Jun-09
Feb-09
Jun-08
Oct-08
Net Spec
Feb-08
Jun-07
Oct-07
Spec Shorts
Feb-07
Jun-06
Feb-06
Oct-05
Oct-06
Spec Longs
(300)
Implied Vol %
1,000
Oct-05
Futures & Options (000s)
300
28
Petroleum Weekly
Contacts and Disclaimer Research Brison Bickerton Matt Corbett Shane Foster McGregor Ganthier Belinda Zheng
Calgary Office (203) 897-5103 (203) 897-5549 (203) 897-5648 (203) 897-5548 (203) 897-5523
650, 440 - 2nd Ave. S.W. Calgary, Alberta Canada T2P 5E9 Telephone: (403) 750-2450 Fax: (403) 269-8432
Meteorology Carl Altoe Christopher Shabbott
(203) 897-5189 (203) 897-5104
Toronto Office Stamford Office 600 Washington Blvd Stamford, CT 06901 Telephone: Fax: Contacts: Stefanie Katz Scott LaShelle Jackie Mitchell Hugh Gleason Elizabeth Dwyer
(203) 897-5000 (203) 897-5010 (203) 897-5060 (203) 897-5087 (203) 897-5050 (203) 897-5085 (203) 897-5052
Houston Office 2500 CityWest Blvd, Suite 1800 Houston, TX 77042 Telephone: Fax: Contacts: Greg Hebrank
(281) 716-4001 (281) 877-7860 (281) 716-4001
Newport Beach Office 170 Newport Center Drive Newport Beach, CA 92660 Telephone: Fax: Contact:
(949) 759-1939 (714) 996-9950 Damon Suter
London Office 155 Bishopsgate London ECM2 3TZ Telephone: Fax: Contact:
150 King Street West Suite 2310, P.O. 37 Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 1J9 Telephone: Fax: Contact:
(416) 205-4540 (416) 205-4555 Lou Draginov
Sudbury Office 3144 Lammi Road Sudbury, Ontario Canada P3G 1M6 Telephone: Fax: Contact:
(705) 522-0277 (705) 522-9216 Brent Edwards
Costa Mesa Office 3445 Kings Court Costa Mesa, CA 92626 Telephone: (714) 557-5142 Fax: (714) 444-4924 Contact: Perssy Mergeanian
Singapore Office One Temasek Avenue 37-04 Millenia Tower Singapore Contacts: Nick Croom Michael Livingston
(65) 6332-5146 (65) 6332-5088
44 (0)20 7847 1195 44 (0)20 7847 1235 Malcolm Elderfield
Copyright ©2008 RBS SEMPRA COMMODITIES LLP. All rights reserved. RBS Sempra Commodities LLP is a subsidiary of The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. RBS SEMPRA COMMODITIES is the marketing name for the commodities business of The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. Registered in Scotland Co. 90312. Registered Office: 36 St. Andrew Square, Edinburgh EH2 2YB. The daisy device logo, RBS and The Royal Bank of Scotland are trademarks of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc. None of Sempra Energy Trading LLC, Sempra Energy Solutions LLC or any other subsidiary of RBS Sempra Commodities LLP is the same company as the utility, SDG&E or SoCalGas, and none of such RBS Sempra Commodities LLP subsidiaries is regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission. This report reflects the current views of RBS Sempra Commodities and is intended for informational purposes only. RBS Sempra Commodities may make investment, hedging and trading decisions inconsistent with the views expressed in this report and/or based on information not reflected in this report. RBS Sempra Commodities assumes no obligation to advise of any changes in its views and assumes no responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided or any loss suffered. RBS Sempra Commodities does not act as a fiduciary or financial, investment or commodity trading advisor for its customers, each of which is responsible for its own investment, hedging and trading decisions.
RBS Sempra Energy Strategy 10/15/2009
29
