Plan for security of natural gas supply - 2008
Plan for security of natural gas supply - 2008
Plan for security of natural gas supply – 2008 Published by Energinet.dk For a copy of the plan, please contact: Energinet.dk Tonne Kjærsvej 65 DK-7000 Fredericia Tel. +45 70 10 22 44 The plan can also be downloaded from www.energinet.dk December 2008
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Preface
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Preface The plan for security of natural gas supply – 2008 has been prepared in conformity with the Danish Executive Order on Security of Natural Gas Supply. The plan gives an account of the security of supply looking one year and 10 years ahead and explains the performance of the security of supply for the past year. The plan is prepared once a year and submitted to the Danish Energy Agency. The intention is to prepare the plan along the lines of a ‘Ten Year Statement’, contributing to the ‘Ten Year Network Development Statement (TYNDS)’, which Gas Transmission Europe (GTE+) is currently preparing for Europe on the basis of the individual members’ ‘Ten Year Statement’. The plan for security of natural gas supply – 2008 has been prepared by Energinet.dk in cooperation with Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution, HNG Distribution, DONG Gas Distribution and Naturgas Fyn Distribution. As part of the preparation, the plan has been uploaded to Energinet.dk’s website prior to completion with a view to obtaining comments and proposals for revision from all stakeholders in the plan.
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Table of contents
Table of contents Preface .................................................................................................. 2 Table of contents .................................................................................... 3 1.
Summary of the plan for security of supply ........................................ 4 1.1 Legislative framework........................................................... 4 1.2 Security of supply during the past year ................................... 4 1.3 Security of supply one year ahead.......................................... 5 1.4 Security of supply 10 years ahead .......................................... 6
2.
Introduction................................................................................... 8 2.1 The Danish natural gas system .............................................. 8 2.2 Security of supply objective................................................... 9 2.3 Security of supply nationally and locally ................................ 11 2.4 European and Danish natural gas markets ............................. 11
3.
Historical overview........................................................................ 3.1 General aspects ................................................................. 3.2 Consumption..................................................................... 3.3 Production ........................................................................ 3.4 Storage use ...................................................................... 3.5 Transmission..................................................................... 3.6 Gas quality ....................................................................... 3.7 Capacity ...........................................................................
4.
Future demand............................................................................. 22 4.1 Trends/development .......................................................... 22 4.2 Projection of annual natural gas consumption in 2015 and 2025 .................................................................. 23
5.
Future 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8
supplies ............................................................................ National reserves ............................................................... Regional reserves .............................................................. Production ........................................................................ Storage ............................................................................ Imports ............................................................................ Exports ............................................................................ LNG ................................................................................. Gas quality .......................................................................
27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 30
6.
Transmission ............................................................................... 6.1 Executed and expected capacity orders ................................. 6.2 Short-term security of supply .............................................. 6.3 Emergency supply.............................................................. 6.4 Security of supply in the long run (gas infrastructure work) .....
31 31 33 35 40
7.
Distribution.................................................................................. 50 7.1 Capacity and off-take ......................................................... 50 7.2 Special supply security matters in the individual distribution areas............................................................... 52
8.
References .................................................................................. 55
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Summary of the plan for security of supply
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1. Summary of the plan for security of supply 1.1
Legislative framework
The legislative framework governing the security of supply is laid down in the Danish Act on Natural Gas Supply, the Danish Act on Energinet.dk and the Danish Executive Order on Security of Natural Gas Supply. The objective of the executive order, which entered into force on 1 September 2006, is to lay down the responsibility and tasks comprised by maintaining the security of supply, including the determination of minimum standards for the security of natural gas supply. Responsibility for Denmark’s security of supply rests with Energinet.dk and transmission companies, which are licensed enterprises under the Danish Natural Gas Supply Act. The responsibility for ensuring security of supply is held in concert with other players in the natural gas sector, including the distribution companies. Specifically, the responsibility for security of supply consists of observing minimum standards for security of supply and preparing the annual plan for security of natural gas supply. The plan must describe the performance of security of supply for the period under review and one and 10 years ahead. Moreover, the plan must explain the means used for maintaining security of supply in emergency supply situations. The minimum standards applicable to security of supply comprise: In the event of full or partial interruption of the supply to the Danish market, the supply of noninterruptible consumers must, as a minimum, be maintained for: -
three days in particularly cold periods, which, on average, are seen every 20 years 60 days during a normal-temperature winter.
Furthermore, the transmission system is designed to supply all consumers in normal supply conditions in particularly cold winters with daily mean temperatures of -13 oC. Energinet.dk is governed by the Danish Act on Environmental Impact Assessment of Plans and Programmes, which stipulates that a strategic environmental impact assessment must be made of plans and programmes. The strategic elements of the plan for security of natural gas supply (sections 4.2 and 6.4) fall within these provisions in the opinion of Energinet.dk. Energinet.dk has decided to perform the strategic environmental impact assessment of these elements in a separate process, which was launched in late 2008.
1.2
Security of supply during the past year
In 2007, the natural gas consumption in the Danish exit zone (exit zone Denmark) stood at about 3.6 billion Nm3/year. Compared to the year before, Danish natural gas consumption fell by some 10% as a result of the mild weather and relatively
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low electricity prices. However, the opinion is also that a real fall was seen due to a shift to alternative fuels. The year 2007 also saw reduced exports to Germany, which came to 1.2 billion Nm3/year, whereas exports to the Netherlands and Sweden of 2.2 billion Nm3/year and 1 billion Nm3/year, respectively, were largely on a par with the year before. The production of natural gas in the Danish part of the North Sea has already peaked and is slowly beginning to fall. In 2007, production was around 10 billion Nm3/year, of which 1.8 billion Nm3/year were used in the fields for injection in connection with oil extraction or as fuel, while 0.2 billion Nm3/year were burnt in the North Sea. The quality of the gas supplied to consumers fulfilled the applicable requirements. The lowest daily mean temperature in the winter 2007/2008 was measured at about -1.7o C. This temperature is clearly higher than the daily mean temperature of -13 oC for which the transmission system has been designed. The winter’s maximum net transport supplied via Nybro and from the storage facilities totalled about 31 million Nm3/day. This volume was distributed with 19.5 million Nm3/day for the Danish exit zone and about 6.5 million Nm3/day and 4.7 million Nm3/day, respectively, as exports to Germany and Sweden. No critical situations for the security of supply have been seen since 8 November 2007 when Energinet.dk declared a state of emergency supply because bad weather caused a stop in production in the Danish fields. This applies to both the transmission system and the distribution system. The event occurring on 8 November 2007 is described in more detail in last year’s plan for security of natural gas supply and in Table 1 in section 3.3 of this plan.
1.3
Security of supply one year ahead
Over the coming year, the consumption of natural gas in Denmark is not likely to deviate noticeably from that seen over the past few years. The same is the case with supplies from the North Sea, but the incipient fall in production will probably gather momentum. Exports to Sweden are set to rise as a result of a new CHP plant in Malmö, whereas exports to Germany and/or the Netherlands may decline. In the light of supplies exclusively from the Danish part of the North Sea, the quality of natural gas one year ahead is not expected to change markedly. Figure 1 shows the supply situation on a cold winter’s day. Based on historical data, we estimate Danish consumption at around 25.5 million Nm3/day at a daily mean temperature of -13 oC. Supplies will come from the North Sea via Nybro and from the natural gas storage facilities in Lille Torup and Stenlille. The transmission and distribution systems are designed for such a winter when exports to Sweden and Germany are also to be continued. A few M/R stations in the transmission grid in the metropolitan area may, however, reach capacity limits in a cold winter situation.
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Figure 1
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Forecast for a winter situation with a daily mean temperature of -13 o C in 2008/2009 (normal situation).
The transmission and distribution systems fulfil the requirements of emergency supply in the event of full or partial interruption of the supply to the Danish market.
1.4
Security of supply 10 years ahead
At present, focus is on the fact that the production of natural gas in the Danish part of the North Sea will be falling sharply just 10 years from now and probably stop completely by around 2025-2030. This being the case, ensuring security of supply both 5-10 years ahead and in the long term therefore calls for supplies of natural gas from other sources in relatively few years. It should also be pointed out that the infrastructure projects will be large-scale projects with a long period of establishment. In its strategic work on the gas infrastructure, Energinet.dk has pointed out possible projects for adjacent systems. We will probably see a constellation of projects comprising new interconnections to Norway (Skanled/Northern Jutland) and Poland (Baltic Pipe/Avedøre) and expansion of the existing interconnections to Germany (DEUDAN/Ellund) and Sweden (Swedegas/Dragør). The expansion will also comprise domestic reinforcements in the form of compressor stations and doubling of pipelines. The strategic work also involves a minimum solution and a zero investment alternative – both based on natural gas supplies from Germany. Uncertainty about the trend in long-term consumption of natural gas in both Denmark and Sweden and transit entails a request for clear signals from the market so the right investment decisions in terms of the market can be made. Energinet.dk has therefore decided to conduct a so-called Open Season process1 in 2009 in which shippers must announce their transport requirements and enter into long-term transport agreements to ensure the necessary investments.
1
Open Season is a process whereby a gas transmission system operator such as Energinet.dk can ask the market players about their new or additional transport capacity requirements at specific points and ask them whether they are willing to sign an agreement for the relevant business case if Energinet.dk establishes the capacity required.
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Summary of the plan for security of supply
Figure 2 illustrates examples of potential future supply situations in 2015 and 2025. It is assumed that the supply of natural gas from the North Sea via Nybro no longer exists in 2025 and that the consumption of natural gas in Denmark has fallen to 3.2 billion Nm3/year and 2.8 billion Nm3/year in 2015 and 2025, respectively – as assumed in the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection; see ref. 1. The example entails supplies of Danish, German and Norwegian gas in 2015, but only of German and Norwegian gas in 2025. However, it should be pointed out that supplies to Poland are reduced at the same time and that an interconnection exists to Russian gas supplies via Poland. German gas is understood as a mix of Norwegian, Russian and other natural gas origins from Northern Germany at Ellund. Consumers who in future receive, for example, strictly Russian, Norwegian or German gas are expected to see a significantly lower calorific value than today. Consumers in a region supplied from two sides will also experience a much greater variation in natural gas quality – depending on flow conditions. German gas is likely to be imported via Ellund already in 2010. In cooperation with the rest of the natural gas sector, Energinet.dk ensures that the transmission and distribution systems also in the long run will fulfil the requirement of emergency supply in the event of full or partial interruption of the supply to the Danish market.
Figure 2
Maximum day balances for main alternative, Skanled + Baltic Pipe + Ellund in 2015 and 2025. Danish natural gas consumption as in the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection; see ref. 1.
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Introduction
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2. Introduction 2.1
The Danish natural gas system
The Danish gas transmission system consists of upstream pipelines in the Danish part of the North Sea and of onshore transmission pipelines. The transmission pipelines go north-south (Aalborg-Ellund) and west-east (NybroDragør), and the distribution pipelines are made up of a grid of pipeline systems to the consumers. Moreover, the natural gas transmission system consists of a gas treatment plant (Nybro) and two underground gas storage facilities (Stenlille and Lille Torup), see Figure 3. The natural gas from the Danish section of the North Sea is transported through two offshore pipelines from the Tyra and Syd Arne fields to the shore north of Esbjerg at a maximum pressure of 138 bar. On shore, the natural gas passes through a gas treatment plant in Nybro. Here, the quality of the gas is checked and measured, and pressure is reduced to the maximum pressure for land pipelines of 80 bar. The plant can also reduce the content of impurities such as heavy hydrocarbons and remove any sulphur if necessary for the gas to comply with the agreed specifications. If the gas is to be cleaned, only reduced volumes can be supplied (about 50%). From Nybro, the gas is sent to customers in Denmark and in other countries or for storage at one of two underground natural gas storage facilities. The storage facilities are typically filled up during the summer months when gas consumption is low. As the weather gets colder and consumption starts to exceed the daily gas supplies from the North Sea, production is supplemented with gas from the storage facilities. In addition to making seasonal adjustments, trading in gas can influence exports and imports, and thus storage withdrawals and injections. In principle, the shippers’ daily orders within the reserved capacity determine the hourly input/output from the system (the commercial system), while Energinet.dk is responsible for the physical system balance, for example by means of the storage facilities and line-packing. Moreover, the storage facilities are used for emergency supply purposes. Meter and regulator stations (M/R stations) have been established along the transmission pipelines for the purpose of supplying the local distribution grids. Their function is to reduce gas pressure to that of the distribution grid, heat the gas, meter the gas flow through the station and add odorant to the gas. A total of 42 meter and regulator stations and four metering stations have been established, which are owned by Energinet.dk.
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Introduction
Figure 3
2.2
Overall Danish gas infrastructure.
Security of supply objective
Supplies to the Danish natural gas market are largely based on only one physical source of supply and one supply route (the Tyra-Nybro pipeline). If this source of supply is not available, Denmark will be faced with serious challenges in terms of contingency preparedness compared to many other countries that have several major sources of supply and routes. This also implies that – in practice – emergency supply situations have been dimensioning for the overall transmission system. Holding the responsibility for security of supply, Energinet.dk must fulfil its emergency supply obligation in the Danish gas market. If the Tyra-Nybro pipeline fails, transit from Germany to Sweden must be maintained. Fundamentally, exports to Germany will be cut off as shippers will not have any gas to deliver to Germany from Nybro. If the shipper still manages to make gas available from one of the storage facilities or in Nybro via Syd Arne, Energinet.dk will handle the transport to the requested exit point provided that it is physically possible. This also implies: If, for instance, DONG Energy places 4 million Nm3/day from Syd Arne at the disposal of the Swedish or German market, Energinet.dk will handle the transport provided that it is physically possible. Since the commissioning of the Danish natural gas system in 1984, there have been no serious faults in the transmission system, neither on the offshore pipelines nor the onshore facilities. However, on 8 November 2007, Energinet.dk declared an emergency supply situation at 20:00 for storage customers and shippers as a consequence of the production stops caused by storms and unusually big waves at the North Sea fields. The emergency supply situation was called off on 9 November 2007 at 24:00. In this situation, Energinet.dk’s emergency supply management was activated.
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Introduction
Energinet.dk has two objectives for the security of supply of the Danish gas market which in combination set the dimension for the reserve emergency management level in emergency situations. One objective concerns short-term events with requirements being made as to how fast gas must be supplied from other sources but the North Sea. In practice, this objective places demands on the withdrawal capacity of the gas storage facilities. The other objective concerns long-term events with requirements of maintenance of physical supplies in case of longer-term interruptions from DONG Energy’s TyraNybro upstream pipeline in the North Sea. In practice, this objective requires the procurement of a certain volume of gas from alternative sources as well as the availability of a certain volume of stored gas. In March 2001, the overall objectives for the security of supply were reported to the Danish Energy Agency with the following design contingencies for Energinet.dk’s emergency supply management: -
Short-term events: Under normal as well as irregular supply conditions (complete interruption of supplies from the largest source of supply), Energinet.dk must have access to sufficient withdrawal capacity from the storage facilities to be able to maintain supplies to uninterruptible consumers in Denmark for three consecutive days down to a daily mean temperature of -13 °C (the 20-year event).
-
Long-term events: Under normal supply conditions (complete interruption of supplies from the largest supplier), Energinet.dk must have sufficient volumes to maintain supplies to uninterruptible consumers in Denmark for up to around 60 days (corresponding to the expected repair time after the breakdown of an offshore pipeline) during a winter with ’normal’ temperatures.
Energinet.dk’s criteria for designing the transmission system also comprise winter situations with normal supply conditions without interruption of supplies. The objective for security of supply for cold winter situations is today to have sufficient transmission capacity to handle the supply to all consumers in Denmark down to a daily mean temperature of -13 °C. In the medium and long run, it will be considered whether to maintain this objective, ie should it be possible to cut off specific customers in case of very cold temperatures as is the case in emergency situations.
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Introduction
2.3
Security of supply nationally and locally
Security of gas supply generally includes the following factors, both in the short term and in the long term: 1. The availability of gas, ie the availability of gas supplies (including gas from storage facilities) must be sufficient to meet Danish consumer demand under normal as well as extreme weather conditions. 2. Adequate grid capacity, ie the gas grid must have sufficient capacity to meet consumer demand under normal as well as extreme weather conditions. 3. System integrity, ie the operational functionality of the system from production to consumer must be guaranteed. According to the Danish Act on Natural Gas Supply, Energinet.dk, as transmission system operator (TSO), is responsible for the security of supply in the Danish gas market. As the only Danish TSO, Energinet.dk is responsible for the system integrity (3) of the Danish transmission system, ie the interaction between the 80-bar pipeline system and the adjacent systems (offshore pipelines in the North Sea, entry-exit points, the Danish exit zone and the gas storage facilities). Specifically, Energinet.dk is responsible for ensuring adequate transport capacity in the transmission system (2), including transport capacity to and from the storage facilities and to the distribution systems via M/R stations. The distribution companies are responsible for the security of supply in the distribution systems right from the downstream side of the transmission system's M/R stations to the individual consumer. Energinet.dk is not per se responsible for the availability of gas (1), except in emergency supply situations where Energinet.dk must ensure the availability of gas for the Danish market, as necessary. However, as a result of an amendment of an act in 2008, Energinet.dk may now invest in offshore pipelines, for instance, to ensure alternative supplies to the Danish market.
2.4
European and Danish natural gas markets
2.4.1
Europe
The market situation in Europe is still characterised by primarily national markets with national spot trading, albeit with significant cross-border trading, but a real coherent spot market for natural gas in Europe is yet to be established. One reason for the lack of cross-border spot trading is general capacity shortages, especially at the border points, a lack of interoperability between the different national systems and as yet highly limited spot trading in several countries, including Denmark. Most European countries are net importers of gas. Imports come primarily from Russia, Norway, Algeria and Morocco. A growing proportion of imports is LNG-based
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Introduction
(Liquefied Natural Gas, gas cooled down to -163 °C), but most of the gas reaches the European markets via pipelines. Domestic production is falling throughout Europe, while consumption and thus imports are on the rise and are expected to continue rising over the coming years. The European Commission expects that by 2030, 80% of the EU’s gas consumption to be covered by imports. Today, imports account for just over 50% of consumption, with 25% of gas imports coming from Russia. The dependence on large supplies from Russia gives rise to growing concern that instability of these supplies, owing to the transit through a number of countries, for instance, will lead to situations with gas shortages in Europe and thus reduced security of supply. A number of major infrastructure projects are currently being planned which aim at bringing more gas to Europe. New pipelines are thus being planned for example between Northern Europe on the one hand and Russia (Nord Stream) and Norway (Skanled) on the other, and between Southern Europe on the one hand and Russia/Caucasus (South Stream), the Middle East (Nabucco) and North Africa on the other. Moreover, a number of LNG port facilities are being planned and designed in both Southern and Northern Europe. At European level, work is going on to strengthen compatibility between the systems in the individual countries. The aim is to increase the scope for exchanging gas between regional hubs and to solve the problems of cross-border interoperability. This work is supported by Energinet.dk through Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) as well as bilateral cooperation with neighbouring TSOs.
2.4.2
Denmark
The Danish gas market was fully liberalised in January 2004 to allow all consumers a free choice of natural gas supplier. The opening in 2008 of the first gas exchange in Denmark (Nord Pool Gas) paved the way for enhanced competition in the wholesale market. Energinet.dk’s role is to ensure an efficient and flexible gas market. This means, for instance, that Energinet.dk develops products and facilities that can be used by commercial players for gas trading. Gas market wholesalers (shippers) can: -
-
Conclude daily, weekly, monthly and annual contracts for transport capacity. Conclude monthly balancing service agreements. Order capacity and balancing service and keep abreast of own orders online via Energinet.dk self-service – from 4 March 2008. Trade gas, capacity and balancing services bilaterally via Energinet.dk’s ownership transfer facilities: GasTransferFacility, CapacityTransferFacility and BalanceTransferFacility. Trade gas on the gas exchange in Denmark – Nord Pool Gas (NPG). There, shippers can trade anonymously as the gas exchange is the counterpart in all trades.
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Introduction
Shippers can meet via the electronic notice board known as the bulletin board to trade gas, transport and balance. The market model for the Danish transmission system (the wholesale market) is designed as an entry-exit model; see Figure 4. It consists of: -
-
Three entry points in Nybro, Ellund and Dragør where the natural gas enters Denmark. An exit zone where Danish consumers are supplied with natural gas by the gas suppliers via the distribution grid. The exit zone is made up of four distribution areas, each with its own distribution company. The exit zone also has three large power stations (Avedøre 2, H.C. Ørsted Power Station and Skærbæk Power Station), which are directly connected to the transmission grid. Three transit exit points in Nybro, Ellund and Dragør, where the natural gas can be exported from Denmark. Two virtual gas trading points, Gas Transfer Facility (GTF) and Nord Pool Gas Facility (NPTF) where shippers can trade natural gas. Two physical storage points covering the storage facilities in Stenlille and Lille Torup. There, shippers having bought storage capacity can inject gas into and withdraw gas from the facilities.
Figure 4
Market model for the transmission system.
A number of gas suppliers operate in the retail market from among whom all natural gas consumers in Denmark have been able to choose freely since 1 January 2004. Predominantly big industrial consumers and heat producers have attracted the interest of gas suppliers and they are the ones having changed gas suppliers most often. As a result of the liberalisation of the market, everyone can set up business as a gas supplier or shipper.
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Historical overview
3.
Historical overview
3.1
General aspects
As a reference for the plan for security of natural gas supply, this section provides a brief historical overview of important elements concerning security of supply, which are documented by data from the past years. Figure 5 shows statements of the annual distribution of the Danish natural gas production (excl. own consumption in the North Sea) for the period 2001-2007. During the past four years, net production in the fields in the North Sea has outweighed supplies at Nybro since natural gas is exported to the Netherlands via the Nogat pipeline. This export has amounted to some 2 billion Nm3/year for the past three years.
Figure 5
3.2
Danish natural gas production (excluding production for own consumption), broken down by consumption in Denmark and exports to Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands in the period 2001-2007.
Consumption
Over a number of years, the consumption of natural gas in Denmark has remained largely unchanged at just over 4 billion Nm3/year; see Figure 5. Since average temperatures over the past three years have been above normal, consumption has been somewhat lower than in previous years. Generally, variations in natural gas consumption from year to year mainly depend on the average temperature in the winter months, the price of electricity on Nord Pool and the actions of a few large consumers (direct consumption sites). Energinet.dk estimates consumption in 2009 at normal temperatures at 3.9-4.0 billion Nm3. Figure 6 illustrates the dependence of consumption on the annual number of degree days and thus the average temperature and the dependence on electricity prices in Denmark. A steadily declining number of degree days between 2005 and 2007 do not result in a proportionate fall in consumption as Nord Pool’s annual average price of electricity in Denmark is much higher in 2006 compared to the other years. The sharp fall in electricity prices from 2006 to 2007 and a falling number of degree days led to a reduction in the consumption of natural gas of more than 10% in the
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Historical overview
course of one year. Data from before 2005 are not included in the figure as the local CHP plants did not previously operate on market terms.
Figure 6
Annual consumption in 2005-2007 compared to the number of degree days as a percentage of normal year (3,385 degree days) and annual average electricity prices in Denmark as a percentage of average prices for the full period (simple average of hourly prices from Eastern and Western Denmark).
To illustrate the significance of the last few winters’ very warm weather, Figure 7 compares duration curves for daily consumption during the periods 1 July 2005-30 June 2006, 1 July 2006-30 June 2007 and 1 July 2007-30 June 2008. In 2005/2006, the number of degree days was about 5% below normal, while in 2006/2007 it was as much as 30% below normal and about 17% below normal in 2007/2008. However, the maximum daily consumption was about 20 million Nm3/day in the three winters. This should be compared to expected maximum daily consumption of around 25.5 million Nm3/day.
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Figure 7
3.3
Duration curves for total natural gas consumption in the periods 1 July 200530 June 2006, 1 July 2006-30 June 2007 and 1 July 2007-30 June 2008.
Production
All natural gas transported via Energinet.dk’s transmission grid comes physically from the fields in the North Sea. Denmark is a net exporter of gas. There are no physical gas imports to Denmark, but there are some commercial imports via Ellund. Most of the gas from the Danish fields is sent to Denmark via the Tyra and Syd Arne pipelines where it is sold in exit zone Denmark or exported to Germany or Sweden. Also, quite an amount of gas is exported to the Netherlands via the Nogat pipeline, see Figure 3. In 2007, some 27% of the production was exported to the Netherlands, while some 12% and 15%, respectively, were exported to Sweden and Germany. Production volumes shown in Figure 5 are net productions (excluding own consumption) led onshore to Denmark or the Netherlands. In 2007, around 20% of the total production was used in the fields as fuel, for injection or simply burnt (flaring). The share of natural gas used for oil extraction through injection is expected to grow significantly in the coming years as it becomes increasingly difficult to extract the oil. Maximum supplies at Nybro during the past winter were 24.8 million Nm3/day. The duration curves for supplies in the periods 1 July 2005-30 June 2006, 1 July 200630 June 2007 and 1 July 2007-30 June 2008 are shown in Figure 8. The greatest variation in supplies is seen in 2006/2007, the main reason being days without supplies. Production stops on these days were planned and remediated by withdrawals from the gas storage facilities.
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Historical overview
Figure 8
Duration curves for natural gas supplies at Nybro for the periods 1 July 200530 June 2006, 1 July 2006-30 June 2007 and 1 July 2007-30 June 2008.
In an emergency supply situation, Energinet.dk is charged with continuously assessing the supply situation and ensuring the supply of gas to the Danish consumers by applying a number of tools. Table 1 lists the events having affected supplies at Nybro. Energinet.dk’s intervention to maintain the security of supply is also described in the table. Year 2007
Event In 2007, supplies from the North Sea (Tyra Øst) suffered nine total interruptions. Eight of these were handled by the general emergency service without any consequences for the supply. One of the interruptions meant that Energinet.dk had to declare a state of emergency supply: On 8 November 2007, Energinet.dk declared an emergency supply situation from 20:00 for storage customers and shippers as a consequence of the production stops caused by bad weather conditions in the fields in the North Sea. The emergency supply situation was called off on 9 November 2007 at 24:00. This meant that Energinet.dk’s emergency supply management was activated. The emergency
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Action In connection with the emergency supply situation on 8-9 November 2007, Energinet.dk’s control centre immediately started filling the gas systems (Energinet.dk’s transmission system, DONG Energy’s offshore pipelines and adjacent systems) with extra gas from the storage facilities to withstand the challenges of the coming days as well as possible. Energinet.dk also chose to activate the consumers with interruptible (emergency) supply. The main facts behind the analyses from Energinet.dk’s control centre were expected gas consumption by uninterruptible consumers in Denmark of approx. 12 million Nm3, while Energinet.dk according to its capacity agreements with the storage facility companies can deliver approx. 17 million Nm3 from the two gas storage facilities. The difference of 5 million Nm3 is the volume of gas that could be delivered to interruptible consumers or made available to the other storage customers for exports to Germany and Sweden, for instance. A significant off-take at the largest interruptible consumption sites during the emergency supply period could result in consumption exceeding the available 5 million Nm3. Against this backdrop, Energinet.dk informed the commercial players that they could have 30% of their withdrawal capacity from the storage facilities (5 divided by 17) for exports.
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supply management is based on activation of a number of tools which are continuously analysed and optimised.
2008
Table 1
Energinet.dk also activated its right of disposal of the withdrawal capacity at the two gas storage facilities. The part of the storage capacity not used for ensuring supplies to Danish consumers, see above, was made available to the commercial players for exports. Since Energinet.dk had taken over the supply to the Danish consumers, the commercial players were free to use the surplus capacity at the storage facilities to supply Germany and Sweden. The players could maintain their transit through Denmark and continue dealing among themselves via the national trading point.
As usual, there were a number of short-lived interruptions of supplies to Nybro in the first half of 2008, none of which were critical to the security of supply. Events related to natural gas supplies at Nybro in 2007 and 2008.
3.4
Storage use
Natural gas consumption varies much more during the day and during the year than supplies from the North Sea. The market players therefore have to use the two Danish gas storage facilities in Lille Torup and Stenlille. Figure 9 illustrates the monthly distribution of withdrawals from and injections into the storage facilities for the period 1 July 2007-30 June 2008. Surplus natural gas is injected during the summer, which is then withdrawn during the winter when supplies from the North Sea cannot reach the level of the consumption plus exports to Sweden and Germany. In case of interruptions of supplies from the North Sea, the two natural gas storage facilities serve as emergency supply storage facilities.
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Figure 9
3.5
Use of the natural gas storage facilities in Lille Torup and Stenlille in the period 1 July 2007-30 June 2008.
Transmission
In 2007, some 5.9 billion Nm3 of natural gas were transported through Energinet.dk’s transmission grid, of which some 3.6 billion Nm3/year were earmarked for the Danish consumers and some 1 billion Nm3/year for exports to Sweden and some 1.2 billion Nm3/year (net) for exports to Germany, see Figure 5. In the winter of 2007-2008, maximum net transmission amounted to around 31 million Nm3/day. The day of the maximum net transmission coincided with the day of the maximum off-take in Denmark (exit zone Denmark), which was 19.5 million Nm3/day. Exports to Sweden and Germany came to 4.7 million Nm3/day and 6.5 million Nm3/day, respectively, on this day and were thus lower than the maximum values of the winter months. The maximum exports to Sweden and Germany amounted to 5.6 million Nm3/day and 8.3 million Nm3/day, respectively, in the winter months. Exports to Sweden normally depend on temperature, like Denmark’s consumption, but exports to Germany depend on other factors and are therefore more evenly distributed over the year in general, ie a higher load factor. The maximum occurred transmission of natural gas for distribution at the individual M/R stations in the winter of 2007-2008 appears from Table 2, listing the results of both maximum daily volume and maximum flow in one hour through the individual transmission system M/R station. The date and the hour of maximum flow may vary from one M/R station to the next.
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M/R station
Maximum day in the winter of 2007-2008
Maximum hour in the winter of 2007-2008
1,000 Nm3/day
Nm3/h
Amager Fælled
91
9,818
Billesbølle
88
4,750
Brande Brøndby
96
5,169
1,601
70,794
Dragør
178
8,472
Egtved
889
45,785
Ellidshøj
176
9,038
Frøslev
634
30,091
Haverslev
306
14,716
Helle
14
651
1,778
88,783
Højby
573
27,682
Karlslunde
556
27,454
Karup
252
14,391
Koelbjerg
473
32,030
Køge
568
31,064
Herning
Lilballe Lille Selskær Lille Torup Lynge Middelfart Måløv
35
2,225
417
22,043
53
2,854
1,359
61,598
57
2,726
1,209
55,947
Nyborg
45
2,105
Nybro
47
2,651
Nørskov
311
16,986
Pottehuse
157
9,049
Ringsted
549
26,042
Slagelse
248
12,286
Sorø
256
17,923
St. Andst
317
16,521
Stenlille
500
24,932
Sydhavnen
26
1,463
Taulov
119
5,328
Terkelsbøl
317
15,615
Torslunde
250
13,337
Ullerslev
141
6,903
Vallensbæk
416
21,092
Varde
372
18,097
Viborg
1,389
74,626
Ålborg
1,296
73,027
Table 2
Registered maximum day and maximum hour off-take of individual M/R stations in the period 1 April 2007-30 March 2008.
3.6
Gas quality
The quality of the natural gas in Energinet.dk’s transmission system, which is supplied either directly from the North Sea via the Nybro treatment plant or the natural gas storage facilities in Lille Torup and Stenlille, is checked at the metering
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stations in Nybro, Egtved, Dragør Border, Ellund, Lille Torup and Stenlille, see Figure 10. The natural gas must at all times observe the quality specifications in the Rules for Gas Transport and the Danish Gas Regulation laid down by the Danish Safety Technology Authority. The Danish market is always supplied with gas that observes the Gas Regulation’s requirements for the Wobbe index. If supplies from the Tyra field in the North Sea temporarily drops or stops, gas with an increased Wobbe index (Syd Arne gas) can be led into the transmission system at Nybro. In this situation, the Wobbe index may be exceeded up to the Gas Regulation’s limit for irregular supply situations. In 2007, the Wobbe index for natural gas varied between 15.18 kWh/Nm3 and 15.39 kWh/Nm3 (54.6 MJ/Nm3 and 55.4 MJ/Nm3) with an average of 15.28 kWh/Nm3. The relative density varied between 0.619 and 0.650.
Figure 10 Metering stations for gas quality metering.
3.7
Capacity
Table 3 compares capacities at the entry-exit points of the transmission grid with maximum actual daily volumes during the past three winters. Capacity in the transmission grid must be viewed together, ie total capacity depends on the relationship between entry and exit volumes and supplies from the storage facilities. Moreover, current volumes at specific points may affect capacity at other points. And viewed separately, entry and exit points as well as M/R stations have their own physical limitations. The capacity in exit zone Denmark depends on the location of consumption. Some parts of the transmission system are affected by capacity shortages and upper limits of the individual M/R stations. The capacity stated for exit zone Denmark is an estimate of the expected maximum off-take in the exit zone. In Ellund, larger volumes cannot directly be nominated as entry than as exit. The possibility of physical imports is thus conditional on specific pressure conditions and the time constraints of reversing the physical flow. It is technically possible to reverse the physical flow so the compressor station in Ellund can supply gas to
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Denmark. However, the potential physical supplies from Germany to Denmark depend on load conditions in the North-German transmission system and in the Danish transmission system, and Gasunie Deutschland has informed Gas Transmission Europe (GTE) that current capacity towards Denmark is zero. The exit capacity stated in Ellund is the physical capacity. It is possible to nominate exit volumes that are larger than the physical capacity if the net nomination does not exceed the physical capacity. Point
Max. flow 2005/2006 Million Nm3/day
Max. flow 2006/2007 Million Nm3/day
Max. flow 2007/2008 Million Nm3/day
24.9
23.8
24.8
5.3
5.7
5.5
8.0
6.3
5.2
6.3
Capacity Million Nm3/day
Nybro
Entry
2)
32.4
Lille Torup storage facility Stenlille storage facility
Withdrawal
Exit zone Denmark
Exit
25.5
20.8
20.0
19.5
Ellund
Entry/Exit
0/8.3
0/7.2
0/8.2
0/8.3
Dragør Border
Exit
8.6
4.9
4.9
5.6
Table 3
Withdrawal
8.0
3)
1)
Capacity in normal situations compared with maximum, actual daily volumes for the past three winters.
1)
The Swedish system, however, cannot receive these volumes at the assumed minimum pressure of 45 bar in Dragør. The firm capacity is stated at 6 million m3/day.
2)
Total capacity of the receiving terminals in Nybro, but the potential supplies are today smaller as the Tyra-Nybro pipeline is subject to a capacity constraint of about 26 million m3/day and large volumes cannot be supplied from the Syd Arne pipeline.
3)
On the assumption that supplies are pressure-controlled. The maximum supply is 7 million m3/day at constant flow.
2006 saw the expansion of the border station to Sweden, Dragør Border. The physical capacity of the actual border station was raised to 360,000 Nm3/h. However, it should be pointed out that the Swedish system cannot receive such large volumes at a pressure of 45 bar, which is the assumed minimum pressure in Dragør. Energinet.dk has therefore stated the firm capacity in Dragør at 250,000 Nm3/h. Larger volumes can probably be received on the Swedish side under the existing load conditions in the Danish system, but these volumes are offered as interruptible capacity.
4. 4.1
Future demand Trends/development
The consumption of natural gas has been relatively constant over a number of years but has displayed a declining trend in recent years. In 2007, for instance, the consumption was about 10% lower than in 2006, and the trend continued in 2008,
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the main reasons being that some years were warm years and that electricity prices in the Nordic electricity market have been relatively low. Both reasons lead to lower consumption.
4.2
Projection of annual natural gas consumption in 2015 and 2025
4.2.1
The Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection
In the summer of 2008, the Danish Energy Agency made a projection of Denmark’s energy consumption based on the energy agreement of 21 February 2008; see ref. 1. The projection contains a forecast of natural gas consumption on the condition that the energy agreement is implemented. Against this background, the Danish Energy Agency forecasts a fall in natural gas consumption, including offshore consumption, of 11% in 2015 and 19% in 2025 compared to 2006. The consumption of natural gas in the North Sea for oil and gas production is set to rise so the expected reduction in natural gas consumption in exit zone Denmark will be: -
19% in 2015, resulting in consumption of 3.2 billion Nm3/year 30% in 2025, resulting in consumption of 2.8 billion Nm3/year
4.2.1.1 Description of reduction by segment The Danish Energy Agency assumes that the sharpest reduction in natural gas consumption will be seen at the primary power stations where Skærbæk Power Station is assumed to be fully converted to coal and biomass firing by 2011 and Avedøre 2 by 2010 so that gas is only used in the gas turbines. This corresponds to a fall in gas consumption from about 340 million Nm3/year in 2009 to about 230 million Nm3/year in 2015, falling to about 170 million Nm3/year in 2025. The energy agreement contains an option to lift the coal ban at the two power stations subject to application from DONG Energy. The agreement-based projection assumes exercise of this option. However, the Danish Energy Agency has not received any such application, yet. At the local CHP plants, natural gas consumption is reduced because 6 PJ are expected to be replaced with biogas and because the consumption of heat is set to fall as a result of general energy savings of 1.5% a year. Other reductions will mainly be achieved as a result of general energy savings of 1.5% a year; businesses (production and service) are set to save less than average, while the public sector is set to save more, with households set to save about 1.5% a year. The agreement-based projection does not assume any consumption of gas in the transport sector within the analysed time horizon. 4.2.1.2 Assumptions underlying the agreement-based projection The agreement-based projection assumes consumption of 4 billion Nm3 in Denmark in 2006. This corresponds to the actual consumption in that year, but is some 550 million Nm3 lower than the consumption adjusted for degree days calculated by Energinet.dk in that year.
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The agreement-based projection includes annual energy consumption savings of 1.5%, which is part of the energy agreement of 21 February 2008. So far, initiatives have not been completed specifying how to achieve the savings. So at present, it is not possible to say whether the savings will be evenly distributed between the different energy types and thus whether the consumption of natural gas will be reduced by 1.5% a year. Another uncertainty is the assumption of conversion of Skærbæk and Avedøre 2 power stations to coal and biomass firing. Until now (September 2008), DONG Energy has not submitted any application for lifting of the ban. Following an application from DONG Energy, the environmental centre of Roskilde launched the idea phase consultation round on 9 September 2008 (phase one in the environmental impact assessment – EIA) for the conversion of Avedøre Power Station, whereas no EIA process has been launched for Skærbæk Power Station. According to the material for the idea phase consultation in ref. 2, the consumption of gas at Avedøre 2 after the fuel conversion is estimated at 118 million Nm3/year with potential consumption of 177 million Nm3/year at maximum operations. So considerable uncertainty surrounds the future consumption of gas at Avedøre 2 and the conversion of Skærbæk Power Station from gas to coal/biomass. The projection does not contain any outlook for the trend in the maximum daily consumption. The Minister for Climate and Energy has subsequently initiated work to assess the economy of converting certain customers from natural gas to district heat. The related effect is not included in the calculations of the projection, but may result in additional decline in natural gas consumption. 4.2.1.3 Natural gas consumption without the energy agreement The Danish Energy Agency’s reporting of projections in ref. 1 also includes an update of the agency’s projection of natural gas consumption without the implementation of the energy agreement. The principal result is that the consumption of natural gas is expected to rise by 5% in 2015 and by 7.5% in 2025 compared to 2008. The rise is due to the anticipated rise in gas consumption in the North Sea for oil extraction purposes. This rise is partly offset by an expected reduction in gas consumption in general as a result of the ‘energy savings agreement' of June 2005. For exit zone Denmark, the Danish Energy Agency has specified largely constant natural gas consumption for 2015-2025: 3.89 billion Nm3 in 2015 3.92 billion Nm3 in 2025
4.2.2
Outlook for the trend in Swedish gas consumption
Today, Sweden exclusively receives its supplies of natural gas from Denmark via Dragør, but Swedegas and a number of Swedish players participate in the Skanled project with a view to establishing a supply route from Norway to the northern part of the Swedish system.
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The Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection contains an implied outlook for the trend in parts of natural gas consumption in Sweden, viz. the gas used to generate electricity or combined electricity and heat. Hence, the projection contains the establishment of the 259 MW Rya CHP plant in Gothenburg in 2007 and the 416 MW Øresund Power Station in Malmö in 2010. Both are natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) facilities. Moreover, an NGCC facility of 530 MW is assumed to be established in Sweden in 2025. The Swedish electricity-related natural gas consumption included in the model is: 0.544 billion Nm3/year in 2015 0.399 billion Nm3/year in 2025 Swedish system operator Swedegas expects a slight rise in Swedish gas consumption over the coming years. The explanation is partly commissioning of new CHP plants of which the first – Øresund Power Station – is put into commercial operation in the spring of 2009. In the course of the years until possible commissioning of Skanled, Swedegas expects the gas off-take from Denmark via Dragør to run into 1.1-1.6 billion Nm3/year, depending on the number of degree days, gas and electricity prices. Following the commissioning of Skanled, Swedish consumption is set to rise at the same time as part of the current consumption is set to be covered by Skanled. So Swedegas expects a gas off-take via Dragør of 0.5-1 billion Nm3/year during the years after the establishment of Skanled. With Skanled, natural gas supplies to Sweden via Dragør are expected to fluctuate more over the year than is currently the case as Swedish shippers are likely to use the Danish stocks for seasonal adjustment. Swedegas has launched an ‘Open Season Light’, which will run into 2009 and whose purpose is to establish how much capacity the market players want at the various potential Swedish entry points, including Dragør.
4.2.3
Energinet.dk's assumptions in terms of projection
Given the uncertainty surrounding the consequences of the energy agreement for gas consumption, Energinet.dk is of the opinion that it is not reasonable to assess the need for gas infrastructure in the medium and long terms on this basis alone, and special attention should be paid to the timing of any reduction in natural gas consumption. In 2015, energy consumption cuts will yet have to feed fully through, but the reduction in North Sea production is expected to be pronounced. In all circumstances, new natural gas supplies for Denmark will have to be ensured before 2015. In recent years, the consumption of natural gas at Avedøre 2 Power Station has fluctuated between 168 million Nm3/year and 316 million Nm3/year, while that of Skærbæk Power Station has fluctuated between 175 million Nm3/year and 391 million Nm3/year. In 2006, the two power stations combined used 708 million Nm3, while they used only 370 million Nm3 in 2002. If Skærbæk Power Station does not switch to coal/biomass firing and the gas consumption of Avedøre Power Station
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turns out as forecast in DONG Energy's material for the idea phase consultation, this, all other things being equal, will lead to increased gas consumption to the tune of 400-450 million Nm3/year compared to the agreement-based projection. During the commenting phase for the plan for security of natural gas supply, DONG Energy announced in a letter to Energinet.dk that regardless of the outcome of DONG Energy’s assessments of the possibilities of switching fuel at Skærbæk and Avedøre 2 power stations, it should still be possible to use natural gas at the power stations. The other sharp reduction in the consumption of natural gas in the agreementbased projection is the one in CHP production, partly due to heating savings in district heating areas firing natural gas and partly due to the incorporation of biogas at some local CHP plants. The energy agreement’s clause on annual energy savings of 1.5% has not yet translated into specific legislative initiatives as previously described, and so it is uncertain whether the savings will have the same effect on all types of energy. Moreover, uncertainty surrounds the consequences of the initiatives related to enhanced conversion of individual natural gas firing to district heating. On the one hand, it will reduce the consumption of natural gas of individual customers, but, on the other hand, it may raise the consumption of natural gas at CHP plants if the conversion is to natural gas-fired district heating areas. In the light of this uncertainty, Energinet.dk has decided to analyse a process adhering to the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection and a process adhering to the agency’s previous base projection. Sweden has not prepared any similar projection of gas consumption like the one prepared for Denmark by the Danish Energy Agency. However, for the following estimate, Energinet.dk has decided to assume that also the Swedish energy consumption will fall in the agreement-based projection, meaning that also the gas consumption will fall. For 2015, the upper and lower limits of total consumption in Denmark and Sweden are estimated at 5.3 billion Nm3/year (previous base projection excluding Skanled) and 3.8 billion Nm3/year (agreement-based projection including Skanled), respectively.
Billion Nm3/year Previous base projection Agreement-based projection
Table 4
2015
2025
Denmark
3.9
3.9
Sweden (incl. Skanled)
0.8
0.8
Sweden (excl. Skanled)
1.4
1.4
Denmark
3.2
2.8
Sweden (incl. Skanled)
0.6
0.6
Sweden (excl. Skanled)
1.2
1.2
Forecast annual natural gas consumption in Denmark and exports to Sweden via Dragør. The volumes correspond to Danish natural gas quality.
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Million Nm3/day Previous base projection Agreement-based projection
Table 5
2015
2025
21.4
21.4
Sweden (incl. Skanled)
4.4
4.4
Sweden (excl. Skanled)
7.7
7.7
17.5
15.3
Sweden (incl. Skanled)
3.3
3.3
Sweden (excl. Skanled)
6.6
6.6
Denmark
Denmark
Forecast maximum daily consumption in Denmark and exports to Sweden via Dragør. The volumes correspond to Danish natural gas quality.
Energinet.dk assumes that the annual and maximum daily consumption in Denmark, respectively, and the natural gas off-take to Sweden via Dragør are as shown in Tables 4 and 5. For the maximum daily consumption, the forecasts use load factors of 0.5 for both Denmark and Sweden.
5. Future supplies 5.1
National reserves
In a few years, the Danish natural gas production will no longer be able to cover the Danish natural gas demand. The statement for 2007 reveals the beginnings of a drop in gas production in the Danish part of the North Sea, and the production is expected to drop significantly during the next 10 years. This is illustrated in Figure 11, showing the historical and expected future production. Today, Sweden is supplied from the Danish fields in the North Sea and will also be supplied partially via Dragør Border with Danish or German gas after the possible establishment of Skanled. The volume of Danish natural gas exported to Germany and the Netherlands remains uncertain. Exports to these countries and Sweden will expedite the time when Denmark will no longer be self-sufficient. Conversely, any contributions from research and technology may extend the self-sufficiency period by up to around 10 years. But none of these factors will change the fact that Denmark needs new natural gas sources to maintain security of supply.
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Figure 11 Historical and expected future natural gas production from Danish fields in the North Sea, excluding own consumption (sales gas); see ref. 3.
5.2
Regional reserves
In World Energy Review from BP, Europe’s and Eurasia’s total known reserves are stated at 59,410 billion m3. The statement is shown in Table 6 and was made at the turn of the year 2007/2008. After Russia, Norway is the country in Europe and Eurasia with the largest reserves. Denmark’s geographical location close to these reserves facilitates maintaining security of supply in the long run, once Denmark is no longer self-sufficient. However, Russian gas may also become relevant for Denmark via the transmission systems in Europe. Table 6 also shows production and consumption of natural gas in 2007. Europe and Eurasia seen in isolation and using 2007 consumption as starting point, natural gas reserves will last for approx. 50 years. However, Russian gas is exported to Asia while increasing volumes of gas are imported to Europe as LNG. Russia
Norway Available reserves at the end of 2007 2007 production 2007 consumption Table 6
Billion m3 Billion m3/year Billion m3/year
Europe and Eurasia
2,960
44,650
59,410
90
607
1,076
4
439
1,156
Reserves available in Europe and Eurasia compared with 2007 consumption and production. Source: BP's World Energy Review.
5.3
Production
The maximum supply of natural gas from the Danish fields in the North Sea via the Nybro treatment plant is estimated to be limited to approx. 27 million Nm3/day. This restriction is due to the capacity of the Tyra-Nybro pipeline and the relatively low volumes in the Syd Arne pipeline.
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In winter 2008/2009, maximum supplies are estimated at some 23 million Nm3/day via Nybro. Before gas was supplied directly from Tyra to the Netherlands in 2004, supplies amounted to up to 26 million Nm3/day in Nybro. Annual production is forecast at some 8.5 billion Nm3 in 2009, of which about 6.3 billion Nm3 should come via Nybro. Production in the Danish section of the North Sea has peaked and will start decreasing significantly in a few years. This will be of significance to the security of supply within a short period of time if the infrastructure is not expanded to get access to new sources.
5.4
Storage
Denmark’s two natural gas storage facilities are owned and operated by DONG Energy and Energinet.dk Gaslager. Since Energinet.dk is responsible for the security of supply and the balance in the Danish transmission grid, Energinet.dk may make arrangements for storage capacity at both facilities as per its capacity agreements. Shippers also depend on the storage facilities for balancing, ie for supplementing supplies or depositing excess volumes. Table 7 lists the characteristics of the storage facilities and is applicable to 2008/2009.
Owner Total volume Working gas Total withdrawal capacity Total injection capacity Table 7
Lille Torup
Stenlille
Energinet.dk 696 million Nm3 437 million Nm3 14.4 million Nm3/day 3.6 million Nm3/day
DONG Energy 1,462 million Nm3 572 million Nm3 11.0 million Nm3/day 2.4 million Nm3/day
Denmark’s natural gas storage facilities. Withdrawal capacities are capacities, grid bottlenecks being disregarded. Under certain circumstances, actual injection capacities may be larger than specified.
Europe has a great demand for storage capacity. The storage companies in Denmark have therefore looked into the possibilities of expanding the existing storage facilities. Both storage facilities are expected to expand within a 10-year time horizon.
5.5
Imports
The current infrastructure only facilitates imports of natural gas from Germany via Ellund. However, physical net imports are not planned for 2009. On an annual basis, net exports are expected to remain at the same level as in previous years, but the possibility of changing direction of the physical flow is being considered. During the commenting phase of the plan for security of natural gas supply, DONG Energy announced in a letter to Energinet.dk that, as a consequence of decreasing Danish gas production, DONG Energy expects to start physical imports of gas from Germany at the end of 2010. In subsequent years, an increasing need for physical gas supplies from Germany to Denmark is expected. DONG Energy is also of the opinion that improved access to European gas supply will contribute to long-term security of supply.
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Limited resources in the Danish part of the North Sea imply a demand for imports of natural gas within the coming 10 years for reasons of security of supply. A number of alternative import options have therefore been assessed as part of Energinet.dk’s natural gas infrastructure strategy work with a view to maintaining security of supply in the long term and to diversifying the natural gas market. Energinet.dk’s work for long term gas supply has meant that a number of import options have been identified. These include - see description in section 6.4.3: -
Skanled Baltic Pipe Ellund
The list is not exhaustive, but represents realistic possibilities for the future supply of Denmark. One or several of the projects are expected to reach investment decision in connection with Energinet.dk’s Open Season in 2009.
5.6
Exports
Exports via the Danish transmission grid for 2009 are estimated at around 2.3 billion Nm3/year – 1.3 billion Nm3/year to Germany and 1 billion Nm3/year to Sweden. Maximum physical daily volumes are expected to amount to 7-8 million Nm3/day to Germany and 5-6 million Nm3/day to Sweden. For 2013 and onwards, it is deemed realistic to achieve exports of 3 billion Nm3/year to Poland via Baltic Pipe with a maximum daily volume of 9 million Nm3/day, while exports to Germany will have stopped. Expansion of the infrastructure with Baltic Pipe is being considered together with other expansions in relation to Skanled and Ellund, for example, so that the national natural gas balance is maintained at all times.
5.7
LNG
Energinet.dk still does not consider a Danish LNG import terminal as a viable expansion alternative seen from a socio-economic and security of supply perspective. Therefore, supplies via LNG do not form part of the plan for security of supply for the coming 10 years. However, it is an option that can be reassessed regularly.
5.8
Gas quality
In general, the quality of natural gas in Denmark is likely to change when new supply lines are established. Similarly, customers are set to experience major variations in gas quality. This applies regardless of whether future supplies will come from Norway, Germany or Russia or as LNG. Danish natural gas has always had a high Wobbe index compared to the surrounding systems. The explanation is that Danish gas has a relatively high content of ethane, propane and butane, which is not extracted from the natural gas. Norway typically extracts these intermediate fractions, which are sold separately as for example LPG or used as raw material or fuel gas. Over the past eight years, the Wobbe index of the Danish gas distributed has been in the range of 15.0-15.5 kWh/Nm3 (54.0-55.8 MJ/Nm3). Due to the possibility of importing
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German gas in the short term, the lower limit of the Wobbe index has been changed from 51.9 MJ/Nm3 to 50.8 MJ/Nm3. The Danish Safety Technology Authority issued a technical statement on this in 2007. Thus the gas rules allow distribution of Wobbe index in the 50.8-55.8 MJ/Nm3 interval (14.1-15-5 kWh/Nm3). Customers being supplied with pure Russian, Norwegian or German gas in future will see a much lower Wobbe index than today. Customers located in regions that can be supplied from two sides will see much greater variation in gas quality, depending on the existing flow conditions, and thus in the gas supplied. The EU has started establishing a common European gas specification. This work is based on the EASEE-gas specification, which is a recommendation for specification in socalled border points, ie transition points between countries. The work on the EU specification is expected to last at least 4-5 years. Energinet.dk’s objective is that the EASEE-gas specification is implemented in 2010. Smaller volumes of gas are expected to be imported from Germany already from 2010, but in the long term larger volumes are expected to come from Germany, Norway and/or Poland. This gas is expected to observe the coming EU specification. The current Danish specification will limit the possibilities of importing gas. It is therefore necessary to work towards implementing a broader specification in Denmark. Energinet.dk, in concert with the distribution companies, has appointed a working group for the purpose of ensuring that the necessary measures are taken for safe gas use and smooth transport of new and more varying gas qualities in the Danish natural gas system. The working group also includes representatives of the Danish Gas Technology Centre, the Danish Safety Technology Authority and the Danish National Working Environment Authority. Activities to be launched immediately include boiler test, reassessment of regulation procedures and handling of a greater variation in calorific value for settlement. Biogas is expected to be introduced in distribution systems and possibly in the transmission system as well. Today, any biogas in the transmission system must be able to meet current specifications and in the long term EU specifications corresponding to all other supplies.
6. Transmission 6.1
Executed and expected capacity orders
Figure 12 shows current capacity orders at 17 November 2008 until 1 March 2010 for Exit Zone Denmark, Nybro, Ellund (entry and exit) and Dragør Border.
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Figure 12 Capacity orders at 17 November 2008.
Shippers’ total reservation of annual and monthly capacity is lower than the level estimated by Energinet.dk as the maximum off-take. The reason for this is that shippers can supplement their reservations by ordering capacity on a weekly and daily basis and taking hours with overrun if short spells of extreme winter temperatures are expected. Energinet.dk expects shippers to order capacity based on an expectation that daily mean temperatures will be as in normal years. The possibilities of shippers/gas suppliers of interrupting customers in normal situations may very much influence the off-take at very cold temperatures.
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6.2
Short-term security of supply
Energinet.dk designs the transmission system based on the shippers’ capacity orders and on the basis of Energinet.dk’s assessment of forecast domestic sales at daily mean temperatures of -13 °C. This temperature is applied in accordance with the Danish Meteorological Institute’s report to the Danish Energy Agency; see ref. 4. The M/R stations of the transmission system have the capacity necessary for handling the volumes typically purchased by the regional distribution companies. Energinet.dk makes annual assessments of possible off-take by all stations, and any increases in consumption or pipeline configurations in the distribution grids, which may change the distribution of consumption on individual stations, will be coordinated with the distribution companies on an ongoing basis. The assessment for this year shows that the calculated capacities for individual M/R stations on Zealand fail to observe HNG Distribution’s expectations for off-take under normal circumstances at daily mean temperatures of -13 °C; see section 7.2.3.3.1. At the extreme ends at Lynge, Aalborg and Dragør, the M/R stations must be able to deliver the necessary volumes at an inlet pressure of 45 bar, which is the lowest assumed pressure in normal situations. At the extreme end of Ellund, the minimum pressure is 55 bar. In emergency situations, the pressure in the transmission system is assumed to be able to fall to 35 bar at the extreme ends, but the necessary supplies via the M/R stations will be reduced at the same time due to interruption of consumers, including directly connected primary power stations, which reduce the gas off-take according to contract.
6.2.1
Winter outlook
Below follows a brief description of the assumptions underlying the normal situation for the 2008/2009 winter; see Table 8 and figure 13. -
Total net transports are estimated at 38.5 million Nm3/day, of which consumption in Denmark represents about 25.5 million Nm3/day. For exit zone Denmark, sales correspond to Energinet.dk’s expectations at daily mean temperatures of -13 °C.
-
Total withdrawal from the storage facilities is estimated at 15 million Nm3/day with 8 million Nm3/day coming from Stenlille and 7 million Nm3/day from Lille Torup. Optimised distribution of withdrawals is used to achieve the highest possible pressure in the grid.
-
In Ellund, net transports were 7 million Nm3/day, or 292,000 Nm3/hour, and in Dragør, the figures were 6 million Nm3/day, or 250,000 Nm3/hour.
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Entry Million Nm3/day Exit zone Denmark Dragør Ellund net Nybro Storage facility, Stenlille Storage facility, Lille Torup Total net Table 8
23.5 8.0 7.0 38.5
Exit Million Nm3/day 25.5 6.0 7.0
38.5
Forecast for net transport at a daily mean temperature of -13 oC in winter 2008/2009 (normal situation).
Figure 13 Forecast for a winter situation with a daily mean temperature of -13 o C in 2008/2009 (normal situation).
6.2.2
Capacity reserves in normal situations
Today, the Danish gas transmission system receives gas through two offshore pipelines with the following capacities: -
Tyra-Nybro pipeline about 27 million Nm³/day Syd Arne-Nybro pipeline about 13 million Nm³/day.
In normal situations, supplies amount to 0.5 million Nm³/day through the Syd Arne pipeline – the rest comes via the Tyra pipeline. The Syd Arne pipeline thus has ample capacity for use in emergency supply situations. The storage facilities in Stenlille and Lille Torup, whose characteristics appear from Table 7, constitute a significant part of the capacity reserves, even under normal circumstances. The maximum withdrawal capacity of the Stenlille storage facility, which is of the aquifer type, is determined by the capacity of the wells and the current gas volume. The withdrawal capacity of the Lille Torup storage facility is determined by both the current gas volume, the capacity of the pipeline from Lille Torup–Egtved and the pressure in the rest of the transmission system.
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The ability of the storage facilities to withdraw and inject gas for a single hour is determined by the individual facility’s physical properties (process capacity and subsoil conditions) and pressure conditions in the transmission system. Pressure conditions in the transmission system are in normal situations generally determined by shippers’ and storage customers’ orders, but they may be adjusted using Energinet.dk’s operational tools (line pack, buffer in adjacent systems, additional withdrawals from storage facilities or injection, etc.) to ensure optimum pressure conditions in the system with a view to observing the transmission systems' pressure limits and achieving the highest degree of security of supply. Energinet.dk must ensure that the individual storage facility owners can make optimum use of their available physical storage capacity without limiting the possibilities of other storage facility owners of making use of their capacity or reducing Energinet.dk’s possibilities of fulfilling its obligations in terms of security of supply. This being the case, Energinet.dk and the storage facility companies have fixed the maximum commercial withdrawal capacities (possible withdrawal in normal situations) for the gas storage facilities in Lille Torup and Stenlille for the storage year 1 May 2008 to 1 May 2009 at 7 million Nm3/day and 8 million Nm3/day, respectively. Moreover, Energinet.dk has entered into a so-called swap agreement for the storage year, which ensures that Energinet.dk can determine the physical location of the gas at the two storage facilities to ensure maximum security of supply.
6.3
Emergency supply
Energinet.dk is responsible for security of supply in keeping with the executive order on responsibility for the security of supply of natural gas. In a worst-case scenario, the supply from the largest source of supply is disrupted. This means that the supplies via the Tyra-Nybro pipeline fail.
6.3.1
Means
Energinet.dk can handle the risk of interruptions in case of design contingencies with the following: -
Emergency supplies from Danish gas storage facilities Emergency supply from Tyra via Harald through the Syd Arne-Nybro pipeline Interruption of secondary emergency supply Supplies from Germany via the DEUDAN pipeline.
6.3.1.1 Storage services In addition to supplies via the Syd Arne pipeline, the emergency supply strategy means that Energinet.dk has reserved storage volume of 219 million Nm3 for the winter 2008/2009 based on the calculation in Table 9 of the emergency supply requirements for two months in case of failing supplies from the Tyra-Nybro pipeline.
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Million Nm3
Dimensioning month (March)
Total consumption Interruptible consumption
1,078 349 (estimated)
Emergency supply requirements Emergency supply to Denmark from Syd Arne Shippers’ storage filling restrictions Storage requirements Table 9
729 420 90 219
Emergency supply requirements for two months.
It should be noted that – to ensure synergies between stocks for load equalisation and emergency supply – Energinet.dk has made sure that storage customers cover a large part of their requirements with filling requirements through agreements with the storage companies. This means that shippers in the individual months commit themselves to maintaining a certain stock volume that can be used in emergency situations to supply the Danish gas market. On 1 March, 12% of the shippers’ storage capacity must be left in the storage. For the purpose of handling shorter-term interruptions of supplies from the North Sea, Energinet.dk has reserved withdrawal capacity from the storage facilities to compensate for the failing supplies. Moreover, Energinet.dk can make use of the limited gas volumes which are naturally stored in the actual gas pipelines – the socalled line pack. The withdrawal capacity of the two storage facilities is distributed differently over the year for emergency supply situations. 6.3.1.2 Supplies from Syd Arne Energinet.dk has signed an emergency supply agreement with DONG Energy, paving the way in emergency supply situations for supplies of 7 million Nm³/day from Tyra via Harald through the Syd Arne-Nybro pipeline for the Danish market. Usually the gas flows via the Harald pipeline from the Harald field to the Tyra platform where it is processed before it is sent ashore via the Tyra pipeline. In an emergency supply situation, gas would flow in the opposite direction in the Harald pipeline and be sent via the Syd-Arne pipeline to the shore. In this situation, supplies from the Syd-Arne field and the Harald field are expected to stop since capacity in the pipelines is limited and supplies from the Tyra platform will take up the capacity. 6.3.1.3 Secondary emergency supply (emergency supply concept) Energinet.dk’s concept for secondary (interruptible) emergency supply allows the largest consumption sites to opt out of the statutory emergency supply ’insurance’. In this context, the largest consumption sites are sites with annual gas consumption exceeding 2 million Nm3. Under the emergency supply concept, Energinet.dk offers three categories of emergency supply as illustrated in Table 10. The three categories can be combined into partially secondary emergency supply where the consumer must be able to
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reduce part of its consumption within three or 36 hours. This implies that part of the off-take is hyper-interruptible (interrupted within three hours), part constitutes 36-hour secondary emergency supply and the rest is primary (uninterruptible) emergency supply. By combining the three categories, the degree of ‘insurance’ may be composed to fit the individual consumption site. This ensures flexibility in relation to the interruptibility of consumers. Category Primary emergency supply 36-hour secondary emergency supply
Hyper-interruptible emergency supply
Terms Primary (60 days) emergency supply Full insurance In case of 36-hour secondary emergency supply, the gas off-take at the consumption site must be reduced within 36 hours after an emergency supply situation has been declared. In case of hyper-interruptible emergency supply, the gas off-take at the consumption site must be reduced within three hours after an emergency supply situation has been declared.
Table 10 Emergency supply categories in new emergency supply concept.
In emergency supply situations, consumers who have entered into a contract on secondary emergency supply with Energinet.dk are handled in cooperation between the distribution companies and Energinet.dk. Cooperation is illustrated schematically in Figure 14. When Energinet.dk assesses that an emergency supply situation exists, Energinet.dk will issue an emergency supply declaration to the distribution companies, directly to the hyper-interruptible consumers and the system operators in Sweden and Germany. The distribution companies will immediately contact the 36-hour interruptible consumers and inform them of the emergency supply declaration. In the following hours, Energinet.dk will monitor the off-take of the hyperinterruptible consumers. If no reduction in off-take is made under the contract concluded, the hyper-interruptible consumers will be contacted to ensure the interruption. After 20 hours, the distribution companies will retrieve hourly data every six hours and send the data to Energinet.dk, which monitors the off-take of the 36-hour interruptible consumers. If no reduction in off-take is made under the contract, Energinet.dk will contact the relevant distribution company to ensure the interruption. The distribution company will immediately contact the customer with a view to reducing off-take. Both hyper-interruptible and 36-hour interruptible consumers failing to interrupt their off-take under the agreements made on interruptibility will be interrupted physically by the distribution company on the instance of Energinet.dk.
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5
Prepare interruption for C3 after 36 hours
36-hour interruptible consumers
3 Hyper– interruptible consumers
Interruption after 36 hours
6
1
Energinet.dk
Closing of consumption site
Adjusts consumption according to agreement
Interruption after 3 hours
Energinet.dk issues emergency supply declaration for distribution and hyper-interruptible customers + shippers and storage customers as well as Sweden and Germany
Adjusts consumption according to agreement
Energinet.dk monitors consumption
Energinet.dk contacts/asks distribution to contact consumers if interruptibility profile is not observed
Closing of consumption site
7 Energinet.dk asks distribution to close consumption sites in breach of agreement
4 2 Distribution reports an emergency event to 36-hour interruptible consumers
Distribution retrieves data after 20 hours and every six hours
Distribution contacts consumption sites regarding overrun
Distribution closes consumption site
Distribution
Figure 14 Procedure during declaration of emergency supply for handling (emergency) interruptible consumers.
6.3.1.4 Other tools, including supplies from Germany In addition to the alternative gas supplies available to Energinet.dk, Energinet.dk has entered into cooperation agreements with the neighbouring system operators, which provides necessary operational flexibility. Initially, supplies from Germany via the DEUDAN pipeline will take place on a commercial basis if there is a physical flow towards Germany and thus a possibility of back-haul (or back flow). At the end of an emergency situation, eg a 60-day event, the pressure in the Danish system will probably be so low that physical flow from Germany to Denmark becomes possible. Alternatively, physical flow from Germany is secured by closing the southbound valve in Egtved so that the south Jutland part of the Danish gas system is controlled from Germany, and gas with a German calorific value is isolated in this area. Energinet.dk cooperates with Gasunie Deutschland to identify the possibilities and ensure the necessary, commercial agreements on gas supplies to the Danish system. In an extreme scenario where an event or a combination of events causes a more severe supply situation than the contingency is designed to handle, the provisions on force majeure in the Rules for Gas Transport will enter into force. This implies that for instance general provisions of primary emergency supply will be inoperative and that Energinet.dk can make a prioritised interruption of consumers based on overall system requirements and consideration for required consumption.
6.3.2
Prioritisation of means
The Rules for Gas Transport contain a number of conditions which ensure that in certain situations, Energinet.dk can influence or make arrangements for the supply and consumption of gas to optimise the security of supply and the gas system. This applies to interruptible consumers, reduced nomination, reduced capacity, emergency supply and force majeure.
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Any decisions concerning the means by which Energinet.dk secures supplies are based on the premise that the effects of any technical problems on the market should be minimal. The specific supply and weather situation and the actual status of the natural gas system are important parameters for the timing and sequence of use of the various means, for which reason it is not possible to detail in advance when and how the individual means must be used. In the event of major interruptions of supplies from the North Sea, a number of measures will be taken to secure the supply to the Danish gas market. As described above, the primary tools comprise: -
Supplies from storage facilities Use of line pack of land-based pipelines and offshore pipelines Hyper and 36-hour interruptible consumption; see emergency supply concept in section 6.3.1.3 Supplies from the Syd Arne pipeline Supplies from Germany via the DEUDAN pipeline
In an emergency situation, Energinet.dk takes over all transport of gas in the system. Energinet.dk’s emergency supply obligations apply only to the Danish gas market, but in so far as shippers ensure the availability of gas for transit at the entry points or from storage facilities, Energinet.dk will seek to make the necessary transport capacity available if the physical situation so permits. As described in the Rules for Gas Transport, Energinet.dk must in the event of emergency distribute available natural gas volumes in the Danish natural gas market in due consideration of: 1. Concluded agreements on emergency supply in accordance with the new emergency supply concept; see 6.3.1.1. 2. The consequences for consumers must be minimised, preferably by not interrupting supplies to consumers sensitive to irregularities in the supply of natural gas. In this context, it should be pointed out that, if possible, shippers and storage customers must continue supplying natural gas to the Danish natural gas system at the entry points and the storage facilities. Transit is maintained in an emergency supply situation within the framework of the Danish Act on Natural Gas Supply. This means that transit is maintained on the assumption that shippers are able to make the required natural gas volumes available for transit at the entry points or storage facilities, and that Energinet.dk at the same time has a physical possibility of transporting these volumes via the transmission system in the emergency situation.
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6.4
Security of supply in the long run (gas infrastructure work)
The steeply dropping natural gas resources in the Danish part of the North Sea make it plain that special attention should be paid to security of supply in the long run. In the following, likely expansion infrastructure alternatives that may satisfy Danish natural gas requirements have been described. Comprehensive gas infrastructure work at Energinet.dk identifies key alternatives outlined in sections 6.4.3 to 6.4.6. Initially, the zero investment alternative has been described in section 6.4.2 with the related implications. The uncertainties described above concerning the long-term development in consumption in Denmark and Sweden as well as the uncertainties as to which supply lines the shippers will use create a need for having clear signals from the market before any investment decisions are made. Energinet.dk has therefore decided to start an Open Season process.
6.4.1
Open Season for determination of infrastructure expansion
At the end of October 2008, Energinet.dk issued a model paper describing the Open Season process Energinet.dk intends to implement in 2009. The model paper describes the entry/exit points which Energinet.dk expects are realistic to expand before 2015. These concern the existing cross-border points in Ellund and Dragør and new points in Sæby (from Norway) and Avedøre (to and from Poland). Moreover, the players had the chance to propose new points before the end of November. In spring 2009, Energinet.dk will conduct the first non-binding phase in which shippers can make a long-term and a short/medium-term bid for the capacity at each entry/exit point offered. In the subsequent binding phase, the bids may only deviate by a pre-fixed percentage compared with the first non-binding bid. The second half of 2009 will see the implementation of the second binding phase of the Open Season process and agreements on expansion of the capacity required will be concluded with the shippers. Based on the shippers’ requirements and Energinet.dk’s own planning, a final decision is expected in December 2009 on which infrastructure expansion to start. Expansion minimum limits have been defined for all entry/exit points so that Energinet.dk only undertakes to expand capacity if demand is sufficiently high to ensure reasonable investments, and reservations are made in respect of required authority approvals and decisions in adjacent systems. The investment alternatives forming the basis for the possible capacities in the suggested entry/exit points have been described in the following sections together with their implications for supply possibilities for the Danish and Swedish markets.
6.4.2
Zero investment alternative
As illustrated in Figure 11, gas supplies from the Danish part of the North Sea are expected to drop from 9 billion Nm3 annually to approx. 5 billion Nm3 in 2015. This corresponds to current Danish and Swedish consumption. If exports to the
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Netherlands via Nogat and to Germany via Ellund are reduced to zero, consumption in Denmark and Sweden in 2015 is just barely covered. This scenario is considered likely if consumption remains at the current level. After this, production in the North Sea will drop further and is expected to reach zero in 2025-2030. 6.4.2.1 Halving of possible gas supplies to Danish and Swedish consumers Under the zero investment alternative, no investments are made in the Danish gas transmission system. Since the production in the Danish part of the North Sea is expected to stop entirely before 2030, gas will only enter via the border point in Ellund. The consequence is that it will only be possibly to supply up to 2.0 billion m3 gas to Danish customers annually and 0.5 billion m3 to the Swedish market. This is less than half the gas supplied today. Even this limited supply is based on a number of conditions that are described in the following. Maximum day consumption is expected to be about halved. 6.4.2.2 Constant supply from Germany Supply of 2.5 billion m3 gas annually to the Danish/Swedish market requires an almost constant supply of 7.4 million m3/day all year via Ellund to Denmark. The analyses only consider the physical possibilities in the Danish system for supplying gas from the border point in Ellund to the Danish and Swedish consumers on the assumption that the gas is supplied at 60 bar at the Ellund border point. The analyses do not take into account any gas suppliers wanting to sell gas to the Danish market, just as they do not assess the investments required in the German grid to ensure supplies of a daily volume of 7.4 million m3 to the border point on the German side. 6.4.2.3 Gas supplies via Germany The supply of 7.4 million m3 natural gas per day to the Danish market via Ellund requires upgrades of the German grid. Today, the Germans are unable to supply gas at 60 bar at Ellund. So in order to fulfil the agreement on this pressure, capacity on the German side between Quarnstadt and Ellund must be upgraded. Nor is it currently possible to supply gas volumes of this magnitude through the German grid to the DEUDAN pipeline south of the Danish border. Today, Germany imports the majority of its gas; a trend that is expected to continue in the coming years. Any supply of Danish and Swedish consumers via Germany therefore requires that the gas comes from Russia, Norway or other suppliers via the German system to the Danish/German border point. Supplies will likely require significant investments in the German grid. A possible supplier of gas to the Danish and Swedish consumers could be Russia via Nord Stream, which is expected to be complete in 2011, and on which DONG Energy has made supply agreements.
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6.4.2.4 Storage facility use In cooperation with storage facility companies, it is necessary to assess the capacity needed at Ellund in order for the storage facilities to have adequate flexibility in regard to filling. 6.4.2.5 Possibility of covering the gas requirement The zero investment alternative is unable to cover the gas demand. This applies despite the Danish Energy Agency’s projection, including annual savings of 1.5% and the conversion of Skærbæk Power Station and the main boiler at Avedøre Power Station Unit 2 from gas to coal and biomass firing; see section 4.2. This applies if only Danish requirements are considered, but to an even greater extent if the Swedish requirements are included.
6.4.3
Expansion alternatives
An overview of expansion alternatives discussed and assessed as part of Energinet.dk’s strategy work on the gas infrastructure (GISA) is shown in Figure 15.
Figure 15 Expansion alternatives in Energinet.dk’s strategy work on the gas infrastructure (GISA).
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As a result of the strategy work, Energinet.dk’s further planning is set to focus on an expansion alternative called the main alternative, which is assessed to constitute a likely constellation of projects. The main alternative comprises the establishment of Skanled and Baltic Pipe and an expansion in Germany for supplies via Ellund. The expansion will also comprise domestic reinforcements in the form of compressor stations and doubling of pipelines. A possible minimum solution involving expansion in Germany and domestic reinforcement comprising doubling of the pipeline between Ellund and Egtved and possibly a compressor station at the Danish-German border are also being considered. Establishment of a compressor station on the Avedøre-Dragør section is also being considered.
6.4.4
Natural gas balances and capacity assessments
Tables 11 and 12 list annual balances for natural gas in Denmark. The balances have been listed for the years 2015 and 2025. The year 2015 represents the situation after expansion of the infrastructure under the main alternative or the minimum solution. 2025 represents the situation in the long run. This year concurs with the end year in the Danish Energy Agency’s projection of natural gas consumption in ref. 1. The balances assume that the Danish fields in the North Sea will be depleted by 2025. Year
Natural gas type
Supply
Point/Zone
2015
2025
Zero investment alternative Danish gas
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Zero investment alternative
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Danish and German gas
German gas
German gas
German and Norwegian gas
Billion Nm3/year 4.0
Danish, German and Norwegian gas Billion Nm3/year 4.2
Billion Nm3/year 1.9
Billion Nm3/year 4.2
Billion Nm3/year 4.3
Exit zone Denmark Dragør
Exit
Billion Nm3/year 3.9
Exit
1.4
1.4
0.8
0.5
0.9
0.9
Baltic Pipe
Exit
-
-
3.0
-
-
1.0
Ellund
Exit
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
Exit
5.3
5.4
8.0
2.4
5.1
6.2
Ellund
Entry
0
2.7
2.9
2.4
5.1
4.1
Nybro
Entry
5.3
2.7
3.0
0
0
0
Skanled
Entry
-
-
2.1
-
-
2.1
Total
Entry
5.3
5.4
8.0
2.4
5.1
6.2
Table 11 Annual balances for physical flow. Main alternative, minimum solution and zero investment alternative. Danish natural gas consumption as outlined in the Danish Energy Agency’s base projection; see ref. 1.
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Year
Natural gas type
Supply
Point/Zone
2015 Zero investment alternative Danish gas
2025
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Zero investment alternative
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Danish, German and Norwegian gas Billion Nm3/year
German gas
German gas
Billion Nm3/year
Danish and German gas Billion Nm3/year
Billion Nm3/year
3.5
1.9
Billion Nm3/yea r 3.0
German and Norwegian gas Billion Nm3/year
Exit zone Denmark Dragør
Exit
3.2
3.4
3.0
Exit
1.2
1.2
0.6
0.5
1.3
0.7
Baltic Pipe
Exit
-
-
3.0
-
-
1.0
Ellund
Exit
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
Exit
4.4
4.6
7.1
2.4
4.3
4.7
Ellund
Entry
0
2.3
2.6
2.4
4.3
2.6
Nybro
Entry
4.4
2.3
2.4
0
0
0
Skanled
Entry
-
-
2.1
-
-
2.1
Total
Entry
4.4
4.6
7.1
2.4
4.3
4.7
Table 12 Annual balances for physical flow. Main alternative, minimum solution and zero investment alternative. Danish natural gas consumption as outlined in the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection; see ref. 1..
Balances comprise the zero investment alternative without expansion in Denmark. The consequence of not making an expansion will be considerable, forced reduction of Danish and Swedish natural gas consumption in the long term since the current infrastructure does not allow transport of volumes corresponding to the forecast Danish consumption. In the zero investment alternative, Denmark and Sweden can receive German gas via Ellund (60 bar) in 2025 in volumes of just under half the current design consumption. However, this requires an expansion in Germany; see section 6.4.2. The balances are listed under two different assumptions relating to Danish and Swedish natural gas consumption. Table 11 assumes that Danish consumption remains at current levels until 2025, corresponding to the Danish Energy Agency’s previous base projection, while Table 12 assumes that consumption abates in accordance with the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement projection; see ref. 1 and section 4.2. Section 4.2 also describes the conditions of the Swedish consumption. Similar to the above annual balances, Tables 13 and 14 list maximum daily balances, stating the maximum expected physical flows on a daily basis at the entry and exit points of the transmission grid and for Exit zone Denmark and the storage facilities. The balances of the main alternative based on the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection as regards Danish natural gas consumption are also illustrated in Figure 16.
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Figure 16 Maximum daily balances for the main alternative, Skanled + Baltic Pipe + Ellund in 2015 and 2025. Danish natural gas consumption as in the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection; see ref. 1.
The various consumption scenarios assume that the maximum daily share of total consumption is about the same level as today. In connection with the calculations, the forecasts use a load factor for consumption in Denmark and Sweden of 0.5 in both the base projection and the agreement-based projection. When consumption is reduced, it is assumed that maximum daily consumption is reduced. In all the alternatives, the load factor for supplies is 0.9. Today, total possible supplies from gas storage facilities are assumed to be 15 million Nm3/day, but it is a requirement that withdrawal capacity is increased to 19 million Nm3/day in the main alternative. The tables show that balance during the maximum day can be achieved under the zero investment alternative by withdrawing a total of 15 million Nm3/day from the storage facilities.
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Year Point/Zone
2015
2025
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Zero investment alternative
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Natural gas type
Zero investment alternative Danish gas
Danish and German gas
German gas
German gas
German and Norwegian gas
Exit zone Denmark Dragør
Exit
Million Nm3/day 21.3
Million Nm3/day 22.1
Danish, German and Norwegian gas Million Nm3/day 22.8
Million Nm3/day 10.7
Million Nm3/day 23.0
Million Nm3/day 23.4
Exit
7.7
7.9
4.6
2.7
4.7
4.8
Baltic Pipe
Exit
-
-
9.2
-
-
3.1
Ellund
Exit
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
Exit
29.0
30.0
36.6
13.4
27.7
31.3
Ellund
Entry
0
8.3
9.0
7.4
15.4
12.4
Nybro
Entry
16.1
8.3
9.0
0
0
0
Skanled
Entry
-
-
6.3
-
-
6.3
Lille Torup
Withdraw al Withdraw al Entry
8.0
8.0
9.5
3.0
8.0
9.5
8.0
8.0
9.5
3.0
8.0
9.5
32.1
32.6
43.3
13.4
31.4
37.7
3.1
2.6
6.7
0
3.7
6.4
Stenlille Total Excess capacity
Alternative
Entry
Table 13 Maximum day balances for physical flow. Main alternative and zero investment alternative. Danish natural gas consumption as outlined in the Danish Energy Agency’s previous base projection; see ref. 1.
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Year Point/Zone
2015
2025
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Zero investment alternative
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Natural gas type
Zero investment alternative Danish gas
Danish and German gas
German gas
German gas
German and Norwegian gas
Exit zone Denmark Dragør
Exit
Million Nm3/day 17.7
Million Nm3/day 18.3
Danish, German and Norwegian gas Million Nm3/day 19.0
Million Nm3/day 10.7
Million Nm3/day 16.2
Million Nm3/day 16.6
Exit
6.6
6.7
3.5
2.7
7.0
3.6
Baltic Pipe
Exit
-
-
9.2
-
-
3.1
Ellund
Exit
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
Exit
24.3
25.0
31.7
13.4
23.2
23.3
Ellund
Entry
0
7.0
8.0
7.4
12.9
8.0
Nybro
Entry
13.5
7.0
7.4
0
0
0
Skanled
Entry
-
-
6.3
-
-
6.3
Lille Torup
Withdraw al Withdraw al Entry
8.0
8.0
9.5
3.0
8.0
9.5
8.0
8.0
9.5
3.0
8.0
9.5
29.5
30.0
40.7
13.4
28.9
33.3
5.2
5.0
9.0
0
5.7
10.0
Stenlille Total Excess capacity
Alternative
Entry
Table 14 Maximum day balances for physical flow. Main alternative and zero investment alternative. Danish natural gas consumption as outlined in the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection; see ref. 1.
Under the main alternative, a storage facility withdrawal capacity of 19 million Nm3/day results in excess capacity in both 2015 and 2025. Excess capacity is listed in Tables 13 and 14. Imminent domestic requirements for capacity expansion of the storage facilities are not assessed to be necessary. Any emergency supply of Sweden will create a need. No assessment of the need for increasing the volume of the storage facilities has been made. Capacity reservations on Skanled for transport to Denmark account for 6.3 million Nm3/day. However, Skanled and the domestic reinforcement until Lille Torup will be designed to a maximum day volume of 13.3 million Nm3/day as a consequence of the possibility of renomination on Skanled. This means that it is possible to move capacity from Norway and Sweden to Denmark. In the long run, minimum pressure in Dragør should be expected to drop to the design 45 bar if gas supplies to Poland are to go through Denmark. In this case, the Swedish transmission system will not be able to receive 250,000 Nm3/h in Dragør. Whether this need still exists will depend on supplies to Sweden via Skanled for instance, and the need for load equalisation via Danish gas storage facilities. If
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larger supplies to Sweden are still required, a compressor station can be established on the Danish side on the Avedøre-Dragør section. No final capacity calculations have been made for the maximum day balances listed in which the inclusion of calorific values entails increased volumes; however, the balances are assessed as realistic based on preliminary calculations. During the commenting phase for the plan for security of natural gas supply, DONG Energy announced in a letter to Energinet.dk that regardless of the outcome of DONG Energy’s assessments of the possibilities of switching fuel at Skærbæk and Avedøre 2 power stations, it should still be possible to use natural gas at the power stations. So far, this wish from DONG Energy is only included as an estimate in the above maximum day balances for the Danish Energy Agency’s previous base projection.
6.4.5
Gas quality aspects of expansion
The main alternative includes supplies of Danish, German and Norwegian gas in 2015, but only of German and Norwegian gas in 2025. German gas is understood as a mix of Norwegian, Russian and other natural gas from Northern Germany at Ellund. Norwegian gas (Skanled gas) is understood as natural gas of Kårstø quality but with a lower content of ethane since the ethane content is reduced in Rafnes on its way to Denmark. The balances include gas quality in accordance with the assumptions listed in Table 15. In terms of gas quality, it is taken into account that natural gas from Germany and Norway has a lower calorific value than gas from the Danish part of the North Sea. This implies that the natural gas volume sold in exit zone Denmark, for example, will vary in the balances depending on the calorific value as the energy volume sold is kept at a constant level. Natural gas type Danish gas
Upper calorific value applied (kWhø/Nm3) 12.2
German gas
11.4
Norwegian gas (Skanled)
10.8
Table 15 Upper calorific values applied in annual balances.
Quality differences between sources feeding various places in the transmission system result in geographical variations, meaning that consumers in various parts of the country cannot expect the same gas quality; see Figure 17. This entails special challenges in areas that will experience varying gas quality over time due to varying volumes.
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Figure 17 Illustration of the geographical effect on the gas quality in case of expansion with Skanled or expansion to Germany.
6.4.6
Market and tariff impact on consumers of the different alternatives
The different expansion alternatives do not only have consequences for the physical possibilities of supplying gas to Danish and Swedish consumers, but also impact on the tariffs in Denmark and competition in the Danish/Swedish gas market. All other things being equal, a reduction in gas supplies, including abolition of transit from Denmark to Germany will mean that transport costs will increase since the same expenses must be distributed on fewer m3 of gas. Today, all gas for the Danish and Swedish markets and parts of the German market is supplied from the Danish part of the North Sea. Via the Nogat pipeline from the Tyra platform to the Netherlands, supplies to the Danish market compete with supplies to the Central European market. Moreover, in commercial terms gas can be supplied via Ellund, thus contributing to the competition in the Danish market. Under the expansion alternatives, prices in Denmark will to a greater extent reflect the Central European gas market.
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7. Distribution 7.1
Capacity and off-take
Supplies to the individual M/R station in the transmission system must be maintained, and supplies to the individual consumers must be maintained in normal situations as well as in emergency situations with very low daily mean temperatures. This is ensured by analysing the systems and assessing natural gas off-take from each M/R station. Due to the variation in natural gas consumption during the day, the transmission system is analysed by means of dynamic calculations over several days. The distribution systems are only analysed by means of static calculations of the situation in connection with consumption during the hour of maximum consumption.
7.1.1
M/R stations
Each year, Energinet.dk assesses whether the individual M/R stations are capable of observing the supply requirement based on historical data and an assessment of expected maximum off-take at the daily design temperature. The possible supply via an M/R station depends on inlet pressure and outlet pressure from the station. Outlet pressure is determined by the regional companies, whereas the specific inlet pressure is determined by the current load situation. Energinet.dk makes a socalled base case calculation annually, stating the expectations for the maximum grid load during the coming winter. For the winter 2008/2009, the capacity of the individual M/R stations has been calculated on the basis of the calculated minimum pressure based on off-take at a daily mean temperature of -13° C. Note that capacities are stated for the set points shown in Table 16 and that outlet pressure in certain cases may be lower. Capacities are stated in Table 16, in which the presumed off-takes during the maximum day and maximum hour are shown. Total off-take as a function of the daily mean temperature is illustrated in Figure 18.
Figure 18 Relationship between daily mean temperature and total natural gas off-take in Denmark.
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M/R station
Amager Fælled Billesbølle Brande Brøndby
Expected off-take during maximum day (-13° C) 1,000 Nm3/d
Expected off-take during maximum hour (-13° C) Nm3/h
Calculated inlet pressure
Agreed set point
M/R station. Calculated capacity
Expected capacity requirements of distribution companies Nm3/h
Metered data 30.03.200730.03.2008
Bar
Bar
Nm3/h
55
3,674
56.0
14.6
15,605
101
4,751
64.5
14.7
7,419
4,763
79
3,598
68.4
35.4
9,922
12,000
5,169
1,602
69,343
57.0
33.9
102,217
102,000
70,794
Nm3/h
9,818 4,750
Dragør
202
8,834
56.5
16.6
11,705
12,000
8,472
Egtved
1,049
45,437
68.3
34.4
73,810
59,400
45,785
Ellidshøj
200
8,505
67.0
35.4
25,647
26,000
9,038
Frøslev
747
31,560
58.0
50.0
39,960
41,200
30,091
Haverslev
356
16,190
68.7
35.4
25,647
26,000
14,716
13
614
70.2
30.4
9,864
600
651
1,985
84,850
68.4
47.6
127,524
140,000
88,783
Højby
532
25,187
62.5
16.7
79,847
27,592
27,682
Karlslunde
454
22,391
58.1
17.9
77,667
80,000
27,454
Karup
274
11,776
69.0
35.4
25,647
26,000
14,391
Helle Herning
Koelbjerg
624
27,705
64.1
16.7
31,939
26,433
32,030
Køge
821
35,964
58.3
17.9
40,086
40,000
31,064
0
0
66.9
0.0
4,413
2,500
2,225
443
20,855
64.2
30.4
42,564
30,300
22,043
68
2,851
71.6
35.4
9,045
10,000
2,854
1,779
74,111
54.1
32.7
111,155
106,000
61,598
Lilballe Lille Selskær Lille Torup Lynge Middelfart Måløv
63
2,915
65.7
14.7
7,419
2,728
2,726
1,822
76,940
54.6
17.9
106,000
106,000
55,947
Nyborg
46
2,112
61.5
14.7
9,375
2,095
2,105
Nybro
52
2,405
71.6
34.4
6,784
3,200
2,651
Nørskov
321
14,262
68.3
30.4
27,692
21,800
16,986
Pottehuse
197
10,001
66.1
30.4
32,716
12,400
9,049
Ringsted
639
31,166
59.1
22.0
40,422
39,000
26,042
Slagelse
271
12,176
60.8
16.3
31,067
16,400
12,286
0
0
60.0
16.3
40,800
0
17,923
Stenlille
605
26,127
62.0
16.7
48,720
38,400
24,932
St. Andst
352
16,490
66.8
34.4
43,656
25,500
16,521
Sydhavnen
23
1,094
55.8
0.0
11,755
Taulov
70
3,746
66.2
30.4
27,692
7,100
5,328
Terkelsbøl
344
16,080
59.9
30.4
21,919
21,300
15,615
Torslunde
192
8,335
57.9
17.9
31,067
32,000
13,337
Ullerslev
179
8,062
62.0
14.7
12,056
6,934
6,903
Vallensbæk
287
14,159
57.2
17.9
31,067
32,000
21,092
Sorø
Varde
1,463
197
10,849
70.8
30.4
42,604
21,100
18,097
Viborg
1,725
74,847
69.9
35.3
141,127
124,000
74,626
Ålborg
1,639
72,830
65.6
44.3
126,024
116,000
73,027
Table 16 Expected off-take and calculated inlet and outlet pressure and capacities for M/R stations in the transmission system in normal supply situations at a daily mean temperature of -13° C. Capacity requirements of distribution companies at -13° C are also shown.
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7.1.2
Design of distribution grid
Cooperation between Energinet.dk and the distribution companies in connection with the preparation of the plan for security of natural gas supply has primarily concerned analyses of the relationship between temperature and natural gas consumption under each M/R station in the transmission system. The purpose has been to uncover any bottlenecks in the system. When assessing consumption at very low daily mean temperatures, it is important to consider the simultaneity of various types of consumption to maintain a realistic capacity requirement of the M/R stations. The assessment of off-take at very low temperatures is made difficult since no relevant metered data are available for daily mean temperatures lower than approx. -7° C. Ring connections also make the assessment of the individual M/R station difficult.
7.2
Special supply security matters in the individual distribution areas
7.2.1
Naturgas Fyn Distribution
The M/R stations of the transmission system supplying Naturgas Fyn Distribution A/S are assumed to have sufficient short-term and long-term capacity. Naturgas Fyn assesses that natural gas consumption will drop in the coming years.
7.2.2
DONG Gas Distribution
The M/R stations of the transmission system supplying DONG Energy Distribution are assessed to have sufficient capacity for the coming winter of 2008/2009. Note that for subsequent periods, no assessment is available as to how a change in gas quality will affect capacity requirements, just as possible new supplies that may engender specific expansion requirements and/or changed capacity requirements have also been left out of the assessment.
7.2.3
HNG Distribution and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution
7.2.3.1 General aspects According to HNG Distribution/Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution, the requirements in the Danish Energy Agency’s Executive Order no. 884 on security of supply, combined with the emergency supply concept applied, entail that supplies would have to be maintained for all gas consumers in the relevant licence areas regardless of whether natural gas supplies are interrupted entirely or partially. Since HNG Distribution and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution only receive natural gas from Energinet.dk’s grid, and since HNG Distribution and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution do not have stored natural gas at their disposal, maintaining supplies to all consumers in HNG Distribution’s and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s distribution areas is conditional on:
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-
The capacity Energinet.dk makes available to HNG Distribution and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution at Energinet.dk’s M/R stations
-
The capacity of HNG Distribution’s and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s supply systems.
The assessment of capacity in HNG Distribution’s and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s supply systems is based on Energinet.dk’s M/R stations having the capacity to supply the pressure and gas volumes stated below. Particularly in HNG Distribution’s case, the assessments consider that the M/R stations must have the necessary capacity to supply consumers in both HNG Distribution’s distribution area and the parts of DONG Gas Distribution’s distribution area supplied via HNG Distribution’s distribution grid. M/R station Brøndby Dragør Karlslunde Køge Lynge Måløv Torslunde Vallensbæk
Supply pressure (baro) 33.9 16.6 17.9 17.9 32.7 17.9 17.9 17.9
Capacity (Nm3/h) 102,000 12,000 80,000 40,000 106,000 106,000 32,000 32,000
Table 17 HNG Distribution.
M/R station
Supply pressure (baro)
Brande Ellidshøj Haverslev Herning Karup Lille Torup Viborg Aalborg
35.4 35.4 35.4 47.6 35.4 35.4 35.3 44.3
Capacity (Nm3/h) 12,000 26,000 26,000 140,000 26,000 10,000 124,000 116,000
Table 18 Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution.
7.2.3.2
Observance of security of supply requirements during the previous period Disregarding local pipeline disruptions in connection with damage of underground pipelines, for example, supply of natural gas was maintained in respect of all gas consumers in HNG Distribution’s and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s licence areas during the previous period. The security of supply requirements have thus been observed. 7.2.3.3 Observance of future security of supply requirements The assessments of whether the requirements of the executive order for supply security can be observed is made difficult by the missing empirical data on natural gas consumption at low temperatures.
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HNG Distribution and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution have therefore initiated analyses based on both HNG Distribution’s and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s legal obligations to distribute natural gas to the gas consumers connected to the natural gas grids and on estimated consumption at -13° C. These analyses have yet to be completed. For instance, documentation on consumption patterns for peak and reserve load systems at temperatures of -13° C and during an emergency situation is outstanding. So is documentation on consumption patterns in the parts of DONG’s distribution areas supplied via HNG Distribution’s distribution grid. 7.2.3.3.1 HNG Distribution Based on the preliminary assessments, Energinet.dk and HNG Distribution assess consumption for the winter 2008/2009 at -13° C differently. In HNG Distribution’s opinion, Energinet.dk operates with a too narrow margin for consumption at falling temperatures. HNG Distribution assesses that for the winter 2008/2009, two of Energinet.dk’s M/R stations will have insufficient capacity to allow HNG Distribution to meet its legal obligations at temperatures of -13° C. This primarily concerns the M/R station at Brøndby and secondarily the M/R Station at Køge. A considerable share of the sale from Køge M/R station constitutes HNG Distribution’s obligation to supply natural gas to DONG’s distribution grid at Hårlev (a transition point between HNG Distribution’s and DONG’s distribution grids). Together with sales in HNG’s supply area, this obligation entails a risk that capacity at Køge M/R station becomes critical for the winter 2008/2009. Part of the sales from the M/R station at Brøndby accounts for HNG Distribution’s obligations vis-à-vis DONG as concerns gas consumers who in DONG’s distribution area are connected to the Svanemølle pipeline. HNG Distribution assesses that this obligation means that capacity at Brøndby M/R station will be insufficient to allow HNG Distribution to make supplies at -13° C for the winter 2008/2009. It is somewhat uncertain whether HNG Distribution is capable of observing the security of supply requirements during the coming 10-year period. Elements of this uncertainty comprise the scope of the expansion of district heating in HNG Distribution’s previous distribution areas, realisation of the energy-saving potential, realisation of the remaining potential for natural gas expansion and not least consumption at -13° C at a number of peak and reserve load stations in the VEKS and CTR systems, particularly to the extent that Energinet.dk has concluded interruptibility agreements with central CHP plants in the metropolitan area. In cooperation with Energinet.dk, HNG Distribution will continuously analyse the trend in gas consumption with a view to ensuring that HNG Distribution is capable of maintaining supplies to relevant gas consumers.
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References
7.2.3.3.2 Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution expects to be able to observe the security of supply requirements in the coming year and in the coming 10-year period within the framework of Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s existing system and the capacities at Energinet.dk’s systems listed in Table 18. However, it is not yet clear to which extent Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s grid is capable of observing the requirements when the calorific value of natural gas is expected to drop by 10% in the coming years. The outcome may be that Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution concludes agreements with individual large-scale consumers on limiting off-take during peak load periods. In cooperation with Energinet.dk, Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution will continuously analyse the trend in gas consumption with a view to ensuring that Naturgas MidtNord is capable of maintaining supplies to relevant gas consumers in case of total or partial interruption of natural gas supplies to the Danish natural gas market.
8. References 1. Projection of Denmark’s energy consumption and emission of greenhouse gases until 2025. Danish Energy Agency, July 2008. 2. Invitation of ideas and proposals, conversion of fuel firing at Avedøre Power Station, Miljøcenter Roskilde, September 2008. 3. Oil and Gas Production in Denmark 07. The Danish Energy Agency, June 2008. 4. Estimating the 20-year mean time event for the lowest 3-day average temperature. National figures and minimum/maximum values for five regions. DMI, 2006.
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Plan for security of natural gas supply – 2008 Published by Energinet.dk For a copy of the plan, please contact: Energinet.dk Tonne Kjærsvej 65 DK-7000 Fredericia Tel. +45 70 10 22 44 The plan can also be downloaded from www.energinet.dk December 2008
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Preface
Energinet.dk
Preface The plan for security of natural gas supply – 2008 has been prepared in conformity with the Danish Executive Order on Security of Natural Gas Supply. The plan gives an account of the security of supply looking one year and 10 years ahead and explains the performance of the security of supply for the past year. The plan is prepared once a year and submitted to the Danish Energy Agency. The intention is to prepare the plan along the lines of a ‘Ten Year Statement’, contributing to the ‘Ten Year Network Development Statement (TYNDS)’, which Gas Transmission Europe (GTE+) is currently preparing for Europe on the basis of the individual members’ ‘Ten Year Statement’. The plan for security of natural gas supply – 2008 has been prepared by Energinet.dk in cooperation with Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution, HNG Distribution, DONG Gas Distribution and Naturgas Fyn Distribution. As part of the preparation, the plan has been uploaded to Energinet.dk’s website prior to completion with a view to obtaining comments and proposals for revision from all stakeholders in the plan.
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Table of contents
Table of contents Preface .................................................................................................. 2 Table of contents .................................................................................... 3 1.
Summary of the plan for security of supply ........................................ 4 1.1 Legislative framework........................................................... 4 1.2 Security of supply during the past year ................................... 4 1.3 Security of supply one year ahead.......................................... 5 1.4 Security of supply 10 years ahead .......................................... 6
2.
Introduction................................................................................... 8 2.1 The Danish natural gas system .............................................. 8 2.2 Security of supply objective................................................... 9 2.3 Security of supply nationally and locally ................................ 11 2.4 European and Danish natural gas markets ............................. 11
3.
Historical overview........................................................................ 3.1 General aspects ................................................................. 3.2 Consumption..................................................................... 3.3 Production ........................................................................ 3.4 Storage use ...................................................................... 3.5 Transmission..................................................................... 3.6 Gas quality ....................................................................... 3.7 Capacity ...........................................................................
4.
Future demand............................................................................. 22 4.1 Trends/development .......................................................... 22 4.2 Projection of annual natural gas consumption in 2015 and 2025 .................................................................. 23
5.
Future 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8
supplies ............................................................................ National reserves ............................................................... Regional reserves .............................................................. Production ........................................................................ Storage ............................................................................ Imports ............................................................................ Exports ............................................................................ LNG ................................................................................. Gas quality .......................................................................
27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 30
6.
Transmission ............................................................................... 6.1 Executed and expected capacity orders ................................. 6.2 Short-term security of supply .............................................. 6.3 Emergency supply.............................................................. 6.4 Security of supply in the long run (gas infrastructure work) .....
31 31 33 35 40
7.
Distribution.................................................................................. 50 7.1 Capacity and off-take ......................................................... 50 7.2 Special supply security matters in the individual distribution areas............................................................... 52
8.
References .................................................................................. 55
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Summary of the plan for security of supply
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1. Summary of the plan for security of supply 1.1
Legislative framework
The legislative framework governing the security of supply is laid down in the Danish Act on Natural Gas Supply, the Danish Act on Energinet.dk and the Danish Executive Order on Security of Natural Gas Supply. The objective of the executive order, which entered into force on 1 September 2006, is to lay down the responsibility and tasks comprised by maintaining the security of supply, including the determination of minimum standards for the security of natural gas supply. Responsibility for Denmark’s security of supply rests with Energinet.dk and transmission companies, which are licensed enterprises under the Danish Natural Gas Supply Act. The responsibility for ensuring security of supply is held in concert with other players in the natural gas sector, including the distribution companies. Specifically, the responsibility for security of supply consists of observing minimum standards for security of supply and preparing the annual plan for security of natural gas supply. The plan must describe the performance of security of supply for the period under review and one and 10 years ahead. Moreover, the plan must explain the means used for maintaining security of supply in emergency supply situations. The minimum standards applicable to security of supply comprise: In the event of full or partial interruption of the supply to the Danish market, the supply of noninterruptible consumers must, as a minimum, be maintained for: -
three days in particularly cold periods, which, on average, are seen every 20 years 60 days during a normal-temperature winter.
Furthermore, the transmission system is designed to supply all consumers in normal supply conditions in particularly cold winters with daily mean temperatures of -13 oC. Energinet.dk is governed by the Danish Act on Environmental Impact Assessment of Plans and Programmes, which stipulates that a strategic environmental impact assessment must be made of plans and programmes. The strategic elements of the plan for security of natural gas supply (sections 4.2 and 6.4) fall within these provisions in the opinion of Energinet.dk. Energinet.dk has decided to perform the strategic environmental impact assessment of these elements in a separate process, which was launched in late 2008.
1.2
Security of supply during the past year
In 2007, the natural gas consumption in the Danish exit zone (exit zone Denmark) stood at about 3.6 billion Nm3/year. Compared to the year before, Danish natural gas consumption fell by some 10% as a result of the mild weather and relatively
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low electricity prices. However, the opinion is also that a real fall was seen due to a shift to alternative fuels. The year 2007 also saw reduced exports to Germany, which came to 1.2 billion Nm3/year, whereas exports to the Netherlands and Sweden of 2.2 billion Nm3/year and 1 billion Nm3/year, respectively, were largely on a par with the year before. The production of natural gas in the Danish part of the North Sea has already peaked and is slowly beginning to fall. In 2007, production was around 10 billion Nm3/year, of which 1.8 billion Nm3/year were used in the fields for injection in connection with oil extraction or as fuel, while 0.2 billion Nm3/year were burnt in the North Sea. The quality of the gas supplied to consumers fulfilled the applicable requirements. The lowest daily mean temperature in the winter 2007/2008 was measured at about -1.7o C. This temperature is clearly higher than the daily mean temperature of -13 oC for which the transmission system has been designed. The winter’s maximum net transport supplied via Nybro and from the storage facilities totalled about 31 million Nm3/day. This volume was distributed with 19.5 million Nm3/day for the Danish exit zone and about 6.5 million Nm3/day and 4.7 million Nm3/day, respectively, as exports to Germany and Sweden. No critical situations for the security of supply have been seen since 8 November 2007 when Energinet.dk declared a state of emergency supply because bad weather caused a stop in production in the Danish fields. This applies to both the transmission system and the distribution system. The event occurring on 8 November 2007 is described in more detail in last year’s plan for security of natural gas supply and in Table 1 in section 3.3 of this plan.
1.3
Security of supply one year ahead
Over the coming year, the consumption of natural gas in Denmark is not likely to deviate noticeably from that seen over the past few years. The same is the case with supplies from the North Sea, but the incipient fall in production will probably gather momentum. Exports to Sweden are set to rise as a result of a new CHP plant in Malmö, whereas exports to Germany and/or the Netherlands may decline. In the light of supplies exclusively from the Danish part of the North Sea, the quality of natural gas one year ahead is not expected to change markedly. Figure 1 shows the supply situation on a cold winter’s day. Based on historical data, we estimate Danish consumption at around 25.5 million Nm3/day at a daily mean temperature of -13 oC. Supplies will come from the North Sea via Nybro and from the natural gas storage facilities in Lille Torup and Stenlille. The transmission and distribution systems are designed for such a winter when exports to Sweden and Germany are also to be continued. A few M/R stations in the transmission grid in the metropolitan area may, however, reach capacity limits in a cold winter situation.
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Figure 1
Energinet.dk
Forecast for a winter situation with a daily mean temperature of -13 o C in 2008/2009 (normal situation).
The transmission and distribution systems fulfil the requirements of emergency supply in the event of full or partial interruption of the supply to the Danish market.
1.4
Security of supply 10 years ahead
At present, focus is on the fact that the production of natural gas in the Danish part of the North Sea will be falling sharply just 10 years from now and probably stop completely by around 2025-2030. This being the case, ensuring security of supply both 5-10 years ahead and in the long term therefore calls for supplies of natural gas from other sources in relatively few years. It should also be pointed out that the infrastructure projects will be large-scale projects with a long period of establishment. In its strategic work on the gas infrastructure, Energinet.dk has pointed out possible projects for adjacent systems. We will probably see a constellation of projects comprising new interconnections to Norway (Skanled/Northern Jutland) and Poland (Baltic Pipe/Avedøre) and expansion of the existing interconnections to Germany (DEUDAN/Ellund) and Sweden (Swedegas/Dragør). The expansion will also comprise domestic reinforcements in the form of compressor stations and doubling of pipelines. The strategic work also involves a minimum solution and a zero investment alternative – both based on natural gas supplies from Germany. Uncertainty about the trend in long-term consumption of natural gas in both Denmark and Sweden and transit entails a request for clear signals from the market so the right investment decisions in terms of the market can be made. Energinet.dk has therefore decided to conduct a so-called Open Season process1 in 2009 in which shippers must announce their transport requirements and enter into long-term transport agreements to ensure the necessary investments.
1
Open Season is a process whereby a gas transmission system operator such as Energinet.dk can ask the market players about their new or additional transport capacity requirements at specific points and ask them whether they are willing to sign an agreement for the relevant business case if Energinet.dk establishes the capacity required.
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Summary of the plan for security of supply
Figure 2 illustrates examples of potential future supply situations in 2015 and 2025. It is assumed that the supply of natural gas from the North Sea via Nybro no longer exists in 2025 and that the consumption of natural gas in Denmark has fallen to 3.2 billion Nm3/year and 2.8 billion Nm3/year in 2015 and 2025, respectively – as assumed in the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection; see ref. 1. The example entails supplies of Danish, German and Norwegian gas in 2015, but only of German and Norwegian gas in 2025. However, it should be pointed out that supplies to Poland are reduced at the same time and that an interconnection exists to Russian gas supplies via Poland. German gas is understood as a mix of Norwegian, Russian and other natural gas origins from Northern Germany at Ellund. Consumers who in future receive, for example, strictly Russian, Norwegian or German gas are expected to see a significantly lower calorific value than today. Consumers in a region supplied from two sides will also experience a much greater variation in natural gas quality – depending on flow conditions. German gas is likely to be imported via Ellund already in 2010. In cooperation with the rest of the natural gas sector, Energinet.dk ensures that the transmission and distribution systems also in the long run will fulfil the requirement of emergency supply in the event of full or partial interruption of the supply to the Danish market.
Figure 2
Maximum day balances for main alternative, Skanled + Baltic Pipe + Ellund in 2015 and 2025. Danish natural gas consumption as in the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection; see ref. 1.
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2. Introduction 2.1
The Danish natural gas system
The Danish gas transmission system consists of upstream pipelines in the Danish part of the North Sea and of onshore transmission pipelines. The transmission pipelines go north-south (Aalborg-Ellund) and west-east (NybroDragør), and the distribution pipelines are made up of a grid of pipeline systems to the consumers. Moreover, the natural gas transmission system consists of a gas treatment plant (Nybro) and two underground gas storage facilities (Stenlille and Lille Torup), see Figure 3. The natural gas from the Danish section of the North Sea is transported through two offshore pipelines from the Tyra and Syd Arne fields to the shore north of Esbjerg at a maximum pressure of 138 bar. On shore, the natural gas passes through a gas treatment plant in Nybro. Here, the quality of the gas is checked and measured, and pressure is reduced to the maximum pressure for land pipelines of 80 bar. The plant can also reduce the content of impurities such as heavy hydrocarbons and remove any sulphur if necessary for the gas to comply with the agreed specifications. If the gas is to be cleaned, only reduced volumes can be supplied (about 50%). From Nybro, the gas is sent to customers in Denmark and in other countries or for storage at one of two underground natural gas storage facilities. The storage facilities are typically filled up during the summer months when gas consumption is low. As the weather gets colder and consumption starts to exceed the daily gas supplies from the North Sea, production is supplemented with gas from the storage facilities. In addition to making seasonal adjustments, trading in gas can influence exports and imports, and thus storage withdrawals and injections. In principle, the shippers’ daily orders within the reserved capacity determine the hourly input/output from the system (the commercial system), while Energinet.dk is responsible for the physical system balance, for example by means of the storage facilities and line-packing. Moreover, the storage facilities are used for emergency supply purposes. Meter and regulator stations (M/R stations) have been established along the transmission pipelines for the purpose of supplying the local distribution grids. Their function is to reduce gas pressure to that of the distribution grid, heat the gas, meter the gas flow through the station and add odorant to the gas. A total of 42 meter and regulator stations and four metering stations have been established, which are owned by Energinet.dk.
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Figure 3
2.2
Overall Danish gas infrastructure.
Security of supply objective
Supplies to the Danish natural gas market are largely based on only one physical source of supply and one supply route (the Tyra-Nybro pipeline). If this source of supply is not available, Denmark will be faced with serious challenges in terms of contingency preparedness compared to many other countries that have several major sources of supply and routes. This also implies that – in practice – emergency supply situations have been dimensioning for the overall transmission system. Holding the responsibility for security of supply, Energinet.dk must fulfil its emergency supply obligation in the Danish gas market. If the Tyra-Nybro pipeline fails, transit from Germany to Sweden must be maintained. Fundamentally, exports to Germany will be cut off as shippers will not have any gas to deliver to Germany from Nybro. If the shipper still manages to make gas available from one of the storage facilities or in Nybro via Syd Arne, Energinet.dk will handle the transport to the requested exit point provided that it is physically possible. This also implies: If, for instance, DONG Energy places 4 million Nm3/day from Syd Arne at the disposal of the Swedish or German market, Energinet.dk will handle the transport provided that it is physically possible. Since the commissioning of the Danish natural gas system in 1984, there have been no serious faults in the transmission system, neither on the offshore pipelines nor the onshore facilities. However, on 8 November 2007, Energinet.dk declared an emergency supply situation at 20:00 for storage customers and shippers as a consequence of the production stops caused by storms and unusually big waves at the North Sea fields. The emergency supply situation was called off on 9 November 2007 at 24:00. In this situation, Energinet.dk’s emergency supply management was activated.
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Energinet.dk has two objectives for the security of supply of the Danish gas market which in combination set the dimension for the reserve emergency management level in emergency situations. One objective concerns short-term events with requirements being made as to how fast gas must be supplied from other sources but the North Sea. In practice, this objective places demands on the withdrawal capacity of the gas storage facilities. The other objective concerns long-term events with requirements of maintenance of physical supplies in case of longer-term interruptions from DONG Energy’s TyraNybro upstream pipeline in the North Sea. In practice, this objective requires the procurement of a certain volume of gas from alternative sources as well as the availability of a certain volume of stored gas. In March 2001, the overall objectives for the security of supply were reported to the Danish Energy Agency with the following design contingencies for Energinet.dk’s emergency supply management: -
Short-term events: Under normal as well as irregular supply conditions (complete interruption of supplies from the largest source of supply), Energinet.dk must have access to sufficient withdrawal capacity from the storage facilities to be able to maintain supplies to uninterruptible consumers in Denmark for three consecutive days down to a daily mean temperature of -13 °C (the 20-year event).
-
Long-term events: Under normal supply conditions (complete interruption of supplies from the largest supplier), Energinet.dk must have sufficient volumes to maintain supplies to uninterruptible consumers in Denmark for up to around 60 days (corresponding to the expected repair time after the breakdown of an offshore pipeline) during a winter with ’normal’ temperatures.
Energinet.dk’s criteria for designing the transmission system also comprise winter situations with normal supply conditions without interruption of supplies. The objective for security of supply for cold winter situations is today to have sufficient transmission capacity to handle the supply to all consumers in Denmark down to a daily mean temperature of -13 °C. In the medium and long run, it will be considered whether to maintain this objective, ie should it be possible to cut off specific customers in case of very cold temperatures as is the case in emergency situations.
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2.3
Security of supply nationally and locally
Security of gas supply generally includes the following factors, both in the short term and in the long term: 1. The availability of gas, ie the availability of gas supplies (including gas from storage facilities) must be sufficient to meet Danish consumer demand under normal as well as extreme weather conditions. 2. Adequate grid capacity, ie the gas grid must have sufficient capacity to meet consumer demand under normal as well as extreme weather conditions. 3. System integrity, ie the operational functionality of the system from production to consumer must be guaranteed. According to the Danish Act on Natural Gas Supply, Energinet.dk, as transmission system operator (TSO), is responsible for the security of supply in the Danish gas market. As the only Danish TSO, Energinet.dk is responsible for the system integrity (3) of the Danish transmission system, ie the interaction between the 80-bar pipeline system and the adjacent systems (offshore pipelines in the North Sea, entry-exit points, the Danish exit zone and the gas storage facilities). Specifically, Energinet.dk is responsible for ensuring adequate transport capacity in the transmission system (2), including transport capacity to and from the storage facilities and to the distribution systems via M/R stations. The distribution companies are responsible for the security of supply in the distribution systems right from the downstream side of the transmission system's M/R stations to the individual consumer. Energinet.dk is not per se responsible for the availability of gas (1), except in emergency supply situations where Energinet.dk must ensure the availability of gas for the Danish market, as necessary. However, as a result of an amendment of an act in 2008, Energinet.dk may now invest in offshore pipelines, for instance, to ensure alternative supplies to the Danish market.
2.4
European and Danish natural gas markets
2.4.1
Europe
The market situation in Europe is still characterised by primarily national markets with national spot trading, albeit with significant cross-border trading, but a real coherent spot market for natural gas in Europe is yet to be established. One reason for the lack of cross-border spot trading is general capacity shortages, especially at the border points, a lack of interoperability between the different national systems and as yet highly limited spot trading in several countries, including Denmark. Most European countries are net importers of gas. Imports come primarily from Russia, Norway, Algeria and Morocco. A growing proportion of imports is LNG-based
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(Liquefied Natural Gas, gas cooled down to -163 °C), but most of the gas reaches the European markets via pipelines. Domestic production is falling throughout Europe, while consumption and thus imports are on the rise and are expected to continue rising over the coming years. The European Commission expects that by 2030, 80% of the EU’s gas consumption to be covered by imports. Today, imports account for just over 50% of consumption, with 25% of gas imports coming from Russia. The dependence on large supplies from Russia gives rise to growing concern that instability of these supplies, owing to the transit through a number of countries, for instance, will lead to situations with gas shortages in Europe and thus reduced security of supply. A number of major infrastructure projects are currently being planned which aim at bringing more gas to Europe. New pipelines are thus being planned for example between Northern Europe on the one hand and Russia (Nord Stream) and Norway (Skanled) on the other, and between Southern Europe on the one hand and Russia/Caucasus (South Stream), the Middle East (Nabucco) and North Africa on the other. Moreover, a number of LNG port facilities are being planned and designed in both Southern and Northern Europe. At European level, work is going on to strengthen compatibility between the systems in the individual countries. The aim is to increase the scope for exchanging gas between regional hubs and to solve the problems of cross-border interoperability. This work is supported by Energinet.dk through Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) as well as bilateral cooperation with neighbouring TSOs.
2.4.2
Denmark
The Danish gas market was fully liberalised in January 2004 to allow all consumers a free choice of natural gas supplier. The opening in 2008 of the first gas exchange in Denmark (Nord Pool Gas) paved the way for enhanced competition in the wholesale market. Energinet.dk’s role is to ensure an efficient and flexible gas market. This means, for instance, that Energinet.dk develops products and facilities that can be used by commercial players for gas trading. Gas market wholesalers (shippers) can: -
-
Conclude daily, weekly, monthly and annual contracts for transport capacity. Conclude monthly balancing service agreements. Order capacity and balancing service and keep abreast of own orders online via Energinet.dk self-service – from 4 March 2008. Trade gas, capacity and balancing services bilaterally via Energinet.dk’s ownership transfer facilities: GasTransferFacility, CapacityTransferFacility and BalanceTransferFacility. Trade gas on the gas exchange in Denmark – Nord Pool Gas (NPG). There, shippers can trade anonymously as the gas exchange is the counterpart in all trades.
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Shippers can meet via the electronic notice board known as the bulletin board to trade gas, transport and balance. The market model for the Danish transmission system (the wholesale market) is designed as an entry-exit model; see Figure 4. It consists of: -
-
Three entry points in Nybro, Ellund and Dragør where the natural gas enters Denmark. An exit zone where Danish consumers are supplied with natural gas by the gas suppliers via the distribution grid. The exit zone is made up of four distribution areas, each with its own distribution company. The exit zone also has three large power stations (Avedøre 2, H.C. Ørsted Power Station and Skærbæk Power Station), which are directly connected to the transmission grid. Three transit exit points in Nybro, Ellund and Dragør, where the natural gas can be exported from Denmark. Two virtual gas trading points, Gas Transfer Facility (GTF) and Nord Pool Gas Facility (NPTF) where shippers can trade natural gas. Two physical storage points covering the storage facilities in Stenlille and Lille Torup. There, shippers having bought storage capacity can inject gas into and withdraw gas from the facilities.
Figure 4
Market model for the transmission system.
A number of gas suppliers operate in the retail market from among whom all natural gas consumers in Denmark have been able to choose freely since 1 January 2004. Predominantly big industrial consumers and heat producers have attracted the interest of gas suppliers and they are the ones having changed gas suppliers most often. As a result of the liberalisation of the market, everyone can set up business as a gas supplier or shipper.
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3.
Historical overview
3.1
General aspects
As a reference for the plan for security of natural gas supply, this section provides a brief historical overview of important elements concerning security of supply, which are documented by data from the past years. Figure 5 shows statements of the annual distribution of the Danish natural gas production (excl. own consumption in the North Sea) for the period 2001-2007. During the past four years, net production in the fields in the North Sea has outweighed supplies at Nybro since natural gas is exported to the Netherlands via the Nogat pipeline. This export has amounted to some 2 billion Nm3/year for the past three years.
Figure 5
3.2
Danish natural gas production (excluding production for own consumption), broken down by consumption in Denmark and exports to Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands in the period 2001-2007.
Consumption
Over a number of years, the consumption of natural gas in Denmark has remained largely unchanged at just over 4 billion Nm3/year; see Figure 5. Since average temperatures over the past three years have been above normal, consumption has been somewhat lower than in previous years. Generally, variations in natural gas consumption from year to year mainly depend on the average temperature in the winter months, the price of electricity on Nord Pool and the actions of a few large consumers (direct consumption sites). Energinet.dk estimates consumption in 2009 at normal temperatures at 3.9-4.0 billion Nm3. Figure 6 illustrates the dependence of consumption on the annual number of degree days and thus the average temperature and the dependence on electricity prices in Denmark. A steadily declining number of degree days between 2005 and 2007 do not result in a proportionate fall in consumption as Nord Pool’s annual average price of electricity in Denmark is much higher in 2006 compared to the other years. The sharp fall in electricity prices from 2006 to 2007 and a falling number of degree days led to a reduction in the consumption of natural gas of more than 10% in the
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course of one year. Data from before 2005 are not included in the figure as the local CHP plants did not previously operate on market terms.
Figure 6
Annual consumption in 2005-2007 compared to the number of degree days as a percentage of normal year (3,385 degree days) and annual average electricity prices in Denmark as a percentage of average prices for the full period (simple average of hourly prices from Eastern and Western Denmark).
To illustrate the significance of the last few winters’ very warm weather, Figure 7 compares duration curves for daily consumption during the periods 1 July 2005-30 June 2006, 1 July 2006-30 June 2007 and 1 July 2007-30 June 2008. In 2005/2006, the number of degree days was about 5% below normal, while in 2006/2007 it was as much as 30% below normal and about 17% below normal in 2007/2008. However, the maximum daily consumption was about 20 million Nm3/day in the three winters. This should be compared to expected maximum daily consumption of around 25.5 million Nm3/day.
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Figure 7
3.3
Duration curves for total natural gas consumption in the periods 1 July 200530 June 2006, 1 July 2006-30 June 2007 and 1 July 2007-30 June 2008.
Production
All natural gas transported via Energinet.dk’s transmission grid comes physically from the fields in the North Sea. Denmark is a net exporter of gas. There are no physical gas imports to Denmark, but there are some commercial imports via Ellund. Most of the gas from the Danish fields is sent to Denmark via the Tyra and Syd Arne pipelines where it is sold in exit zone Denmark or exported to Germany or Sweden. Also, quite an amount of gas is exported to the Netherlands via the Nogat pipeline, see Figure 3. In 2007, some 27% of the production was exported to the Netherlands, while some 12% and 15%, respectively, were exported to Sweden and Germany. Production volumes shown in Figure 5 are net productions (excluding own consumption) led onshore to Denmark or the Netherlands. In 2007, around 20% of the total production was used in the fields as fuel, for injection or simply burnt (flaring). The share of natural gas used for oil extraction through injection is expected to grow significantly in the coming years as it becomes increasingly difficult to extract the oil. Maximum supplies at Nybro during the past winter were 24.8 million Nm3/day. The duration curves for supplies in the periods 1 July 2005-30 June 2006, 1 July 200630 June 2007 and 1 July 2007-30 June 2008 are shown in Figure 8. The greatest variation in supplies is seen in 2006/2007, the main reason being days without supplies. Production stops on these days were planned and remediated by withdrawals from the gas storage facilities.
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Figure 8
Duration curves for natural gas supplies at Nybro for the periods 1 July 200530 June 2006, 1 July 2006-30 June 2007 and 1 July 2007-30 June 2008.
In an emergency supply situation, Energinet.dk is charged with continuously assessing the supply situation and ensuring the supply of gas to the Danish consumers by applying a number of tools. Table 1 lists the events having affected supplies at Nybro. Energinet.dk’s intervention to maintain the security of supply is also described in the table. Year 2007
Event In 2007, supplies from the North Sea (Tyra Øst) suffered nine total interruptions. Eight of these were handled by the general emergency service without any consequences for the supply. One of the interruptions meant that Energinet.dk had to declare a state of emergency supply: On 8 November 2007, Energinet.dk declared an emergency supply situation from 20:00 for storage customers and shippers as a consequence of the production stops caused by bad weather conditions in the fields in the North Sea. The emergency supply situation was called off on 9 November 2007 at 24:00. This meant that Energinet.dk’s emergency supply management was activated. The emergency
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Action In connection with the emergency supply situation on 8-9 November 2007, Energinet.dk’s control centre immediately started filling the gas systems (Energinet.dk’s transmission system, DONG Energy’s offshore pipelines and adjacent systems) with extra gas from the storage facilities to withstand the challenges of the coming days as well as possible. Energinet.dk also chose to activate the consumers with interruptible (emergency) supply. The main facts behind the analyses from Energinet.dk’s control centre were expected gas consumption by uninterruptible consumers in Denmark of approx. 12 million Nm3, while Energinet.dk according to its capacity agreements with the storage facility companies can deliver approx. 17 million Nm3 from the two gas storage facilities. The difference of 5 million Nm3 is the volume of gas that could be delivered to interruptible consumers or made available to the other storage customers for exports to Germany and Sweden, for instance. A significant off-take at the largest interruptible consumption sites during the emergency supply period could result in consumption exceeding the available 5 million Nm3. Against this backdrop, Energinet.dk informed the commercial players that they could have 30% of their withdrawal capacity from the storage facilities (5 divided by 17) for exports.
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supply management is based on activation of a number of tools which are continuously analysed and optimised.
2008
Table 1
Energinet.dk also activated its right of disposal of the withdrawal capacity at the two gas storage facilities. The part of the storage capacity not used for ensuring supplies to Danish consumers, see above, was made available to the commercial players for exports. Since Energinet.dk had taken over the supply to the Danish consumers, the commercial players were free to use the surplus capacity at the storage facilities to supply Germany and Sweden. The players could maintain their transit through Denmark and continue dealing among themselves via the national trading point.
As usual, there were a number of short-lived interruptions of supplies to Nybro in the first half of 2008, none of which were critical to the security of supply. Events related to natural gas supplies at Nybro in 2007 and 2008.
3.4
Storage use
Natural gas consumption varies much more during the day and during the year than supplies from the North Sea. The market players therefore have to use the two Danish gas storage facilities in Lille Torup and Stenlille. Figure 9 illustrates the monthly distribution of withdrawals from and injections into the storage facilities for the period 1 July 2007-30 June 2008. Surplus natural gas is injected during the summer, which is then withdrawn during the winter when supplies from the North Sea cannot reach the level of the consumption plus exports to Sweden and Germany. In case of interruptions of supplies from the North Sea, the two natural gas storage facilities serve as emergency supply storage facilities.
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Figure 9
3.5
Use of the natural gas storage facilities in Lille Torup and Stenlille in the period 1 July 2007-30 June 2008.
Transmission
In 2007, some 5.9 billion Nm3 of natural gas were transported through Energinet.dk’s transmission grid, of which some 3.6 billion Nm3/year were earmarked for the Danish consumers and some 1 billion Nm3/year for exports to Sweden and some 1.2 billion Nm3/year (net) for exports to Germany, see Figure 5. In the winter of 2007-2008, maximum net transmission amounted to around 31 million Nm3/day. The day of the maximum net transmission coincided with the day of the maximum off-take in Denmark (exit zone Denmark), which was 19.5 million Nm3/day. Exports to Sweden and Germany came to 4.7 million Nm3/day and 6.5 million Nm3/day, respectively, on this day and were thus lower than the maximum values of the winter months. The maximum exports to Sweden and Germany amounted to 5.6 million Nm3/day and 8.3 million Nm3/day, respectively, in the winter months. Exports to Sweden normally depend on temperature, like Denmark’s consumption, but exports to Germany depend on other factors and are therefore more evenly distributed over the year in general, ie a higher load factor. The maximum occurred transmission of natural gas for distribution at the individual M/R stations in the winter of 2007-2008 appears from Table 2, listing the results of both maximum daily volume and maximum flow in one hour through the individual transmission system M/R station. The date and the hour of maximum flow may vary from one M/R station to the next.
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M/R station
Maximum day in the winter of 2007-2008
Maximum hour in the winter of 2007-2008
1,000 Nm3/day
Nm3/h
Amager Fælled
91
9,818
Billesbølle
88
4,750
Brande Brøndby
96
5,169
1,601
70,794
Dragør
178
8,472
Egtved
889
45,785
Ellidshøj
176
9,038
Frøslev
634
30,091
Haverslev
306
14,716
Helle
14
651
1,778
88,783
Højby
573
27,682
Karlslunde
556
27,454
Karup
252
14,391
Koelbjerg
473
32,030
Køge
568
31,064
Herning
Lilballe Lille Selskær Lille Torup Lynge Middelfart Måløv
35
2,225
417
22,043
53
2,854
1,359
61,598
57
2,726
1,209
55,947
Nyborg
45
2,105
Nybro
47
2,651
Nørskov
311
16,986
Pottehuse
157
9,049
Ringsted
549
26,042
Slagelse
248
12,286
Sorø
256
17,923
St. Andst
317
16,521
Stenlille
500
24,932
Sydhavnen
26
1,463
Taulov
119
5,328
Terkelsbøl
317
15,615
Torslunde
250
13,337
Ullerslev
141
6,903
Vallensbæk
416
21,092
Varde
372
18,097
Viborg
1,389
74,626
Ålborg
1,296
73,027
Table 2
Registered maximum day and maximum hour off-take of individual M/R stations in the period 1 April 2007-30 March 2008.
3.6
Gas quality
The quality of the natural gas in Energinet.dk’s transmission system, which is supplied either directly from the North Sea via the Nybro treatment plant or the natural gas storage facilities in Lille Torup and Stenlille, is checked at the metering
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stations in Nybro, Egtved, Dragør Border, Ellund, Lille Torup and Stenlille, see Figure 10. The natural gas must at all times observe the quality specifications in the Rules for Gas Transport and the Danish Gas Regulation laid down by the Danish Safety Technology Authority. The Danish market is always supplied with gas that observes the Gas Regulation’s requirements for the Wobbe index. If supplies from the Tyra field in the North Sea temporarily drops or stops, gas with an increased Wobbe index (Syd Arne gas) can be led into the transmission system at Nybro. In this situation, the Wobbe index may be exceeded up to the Gas Regulation’s limit for irregular supply situations. In 2007, the Wobbe index for natural gas varied between 15.18 kWh/Nm3 and 15.39 kWh/Nm3 (54.6 MJ/Nm3 and 55.4 MJ/Nm3) with an average of 15.28 kWh/Nm3. The relative density varied between 0.619 and 0.650.
Figure 10 Metering stations for gas quality metering.
3.7
Capacity
Table 3 compares capacities at the entry-exit points of the transmission grid with maximum actual daily volumes during the past three winters. Capacity in the transmission grid must be viewed together, ie total capacity depends on the relationship between entry and exit volumes and supplies from the storage facilities. Moreover, current volumes at specific points may affect capacity at other points. And viewed separately, entry and exit points as well as M/R stations have their own physical limitations. The capacity in exit zone Denmark depends on the location of consumption. Some parts of the transmission system are affected by capacity shortages and upper limits of the individual M/R stations. The capacity stated for exit zone Denmark is an estimate of the expected maximum off-take in the exit zone. In Ellund, larger volumes cannot directly be nominated as entry than as exit. The possibility of physical imports is thus conditional on specific pressure conditions and the time constraints of reversing the physical flow. It is technically possible to reverse the physical flow so the compressor station in Ellund can supply gas to
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Future demand
Denmark. However, the potential physical supplies from Germany to Denmark depend on load conditions in the North-German transmission system and in the Danish transmission system, and Gasunie Deutschland has informed Gas Transmission Europe (GTE) that current capacity towards Denmark is zero. The exit capacity stated in Ellund is the physical capacity. It is possible to nominate exit volumes that are larger than the physical capacity if the net nomination does not exceed the physical capacity. Point
Max. flow 2005/2006 Million Nm3/day
Max. flow 2006/2007 Million Nm3/day
Max. flow 2007/2008 Million Nm3/day
24.9
23.8
24.8
5.3
5.7
5.5
8.0
6.3
5.2
6.3
Capacity Million Nm3/day
Nybro
Entry
2)
32.4
Lille Torup storage facility Stenlille storage facility
Withdrawal
Exit zone Denmark
Exit
25.5
20.8
20.0
19.5
Ellund
Entry/Exit
0/8.3
0/7.2
0/8.2
0/8.3
Dragør Border
Exit
8.6
4.9
4.9
5.6
Table 3
Withdrawal
8.0
3)
1)
Capacity in normal situations compared with maximum, actual daily volumes for the past three winters.
1)
The Swedish system, however, cannot receive these volumes at the assumed minimum pressure of 45 bar in Dragør. The firm capacity is stated at 6 million m3/day.
2)
Total capacity of the receiving terminals in Nybro, but the potential supplies are today smaller as the Tyra-Nybro pipeline is subject to a capacity constraint of about 26 million m3/day and large volumes cannot be supplied from the Syd Arne pipeline.
3)
On the assumption that supplies are pressure-controlled. The maximum supply is 7 million m3/day at constant flow.
2006 saw the expansion of the border station to Sweden, Dragør Border. The physical capacity of the actual border station was raised to 360,000 Nm3/h. However, it should be pointed out that the Swedish system cannot receive such large volumes at a pressure of 45 bar, which is the assumed minimum pressure in Dragør. Energinet.dk has therefore stated the firm capacity in Dragør at 250,000 Nm3/h. Larger volumes can probably be received on the Swedish side under the existing load conditions in the Danish system, but these volumes are offered as interruptible capacity.
4. 4.1
Future demand Trends/development
The consumption of natural gas has been relatively constant over a number of years but has displayed a declining trend in recent years. In 2007, for instance, the consumption was about 10% lower than in 2006, and the trend continued in 2008,
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the main reasons being that some years were warm years and that electricity prices in the Nordic electricity market have been relatively low. Both reasons lead to lower consumption.
4.2
Projection of annual natural gas consumption in 2015 and 2025
4.2.1
The Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection
In the summer of 2008, the Danish Energy Agency made a projection of Denmark’s energy consumption based on the energy agreement of 21 February 2008; see ref. 1. The projection contains a forecast of natural gas consumption on the condition that the energy agreement is implemented. Against this background, the Danish Energy Agency forecasts a fall in natural gas consumption, including offshore consumption, of 11% in 2015 and 19% in 2025 compared to 2006. The consumption of natural gas in the North Sea for oil and gas production is set to rise so the expected reduction in natural gas consumption in exit zone Denmark will be: -
19% in 2015, resulting in consumption of 3.2 billion Nm3/year 30% in 2025, resulting in consumption of 2.8 billion Nm3/year
4.2.1.1 Description of reduction by segment The Danish Energy Agency assumes that the sharpest reduction in natural gas consumption will be seen at the primary power stations where Skærbæk Power Station is assumed to be fully converted to coal and biomass firing by 2011 and Avedøre 2 by 2010 so that gas is only used in the gas turbines. This corresponds to a fall in gas consumption from about 340 million Nm3/year in 2009 to about 230 million Nm3/year in 2015, falling to about 170 million Nm3/year in 2025. The energy agreement contains an option to lift the coal ban at the two power stations subject to application from DONG Energy. The agreement-based projection assumes exercise of this option. However, the Danish Energy Agency has not received any such application, yet. At the local CHP plants, natural gas consumption is reduced because 6 PJ are expected to be replaced with biogas and because the consumption of heat is set to fall as a result of general energy savings of 1.5% a year. Other reductions will mainly be achieved as a result of general energy savings of 1.5% a year; businesses (production and service) are set to save less than average, while the public sector is set to save more, with households set to save about 1.5% a year. The agreement-based projection does not assume any consumption of gas in the transport sector within the analysed time horizon. 4.2.1.2 Assumptions underlying the agreement-based projection The agreement-based projection assumes consumption of 4 billion Nm3 in Denmark in 2006. This corresponds to the actual consumption in that year, but is some 550 million Nm3 lower than the consumption adjusted for degree days calculated by Energinet.dk in that year.
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The agreement-based projection includes annual energy consumption savings of 1.5%, which is part of the energy agreement of 21 February 2008. So far, initiatives have not been completed specifying how to achieve the savings. So at present, it is not possible to say whether the savings will be evenly distributed between the different energy types and thus whether the consumption of natural gas will be reduced by 1.5% a year. Another uncertainty is the assumption of conversion of Skærbæk and Avedøre 2 power stations to coal and biomass firing. Until now (September 2008), DONG Energy has not submitted any application for lifting of the ban. Following an application from DONG Energy, the environmental centre of Roskilde launched the idea phase consultation round on 9 September 2008 (phase one in the environmental impact assessment – EIA) for the conversion of Avedøre Power Station, whereas no EIA process has been launched for Skærbæk Power Station. According to the material for the idea phase consultation in ref. 2, the consumption of gas at Avedøre 2 after the fuel conversion is estimated at 118 million Nm3/year with potential consumption of 177 million Nm3/year at maximum operations. So considerable uncertainty surrounds the future consumption of gas at Avedøre 2 and the conversion of Skærbæk Power Station from gas to coal/biomass. The projection does not contain any outlook for the trend in the maximum daily consumption. The Minister for Climate and Energy has subsequently initiated work to assess the economy of converting certain customers from natural gas to district heat. The related effect is not included in the calculations of the projection, but may result in additional decline in natural gas consumption. 4.2.1.3 Natural gas consumption without the energy agreement The Danish Energy Agency’s reporting of projections in ref. 1 also includes an update of the agency’s projection of natural gas consumption without the implementation of the energy agreement. The principal result is that the consumption of natural gas is expected to rise by 5% in 2015 and by 7.5% in 2025 compared to 2008. The rise is due to the anticipated rise in gas consumption in the North Sea for oil extraction purposes. This rise is partly offset by an expected reduction in gas consumption in general as a result of the ‘energy savings agreement' of June 2005. For exit zone Denmark, the Danish Energy Agency has specified largely constant natural gas consumption for 2015-2025: 3.89 billion Nm3 in 2015 3.92 billion Nm3 in 2025
4.2.2
Outlook for the trend in Swedish gas consumption
Today, Sweden exclusively receives its supplies of natural gas from Denmark via Dragør, but Swedegas and a number of Swedish players participate in the Skanled project with a view to establishing a supply route from Norway to the northern part of the Swedish system.
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The Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection contains an implied outlook for the trend in parts of natural gas consumption in Sweden, viz. the gas used to generate electricity or combined electricity and heat. Hence, the projection contains the establishment of the 259 MW Rya CHP plant in Gothenburg in 2007 and the 416 MW Øresund Power Station in Malmö in 2010. Both are natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) facilities. Moreover, an NGCC facility of 530 MW is assumed to be established in Sweden in 2025. The Swedish electricity-related natural gas consumption included in the model is: 0.544 billion Nm3/year in 2015 0.399 billion Nm3/year in 2025 Swedish system operator Swedegas expects a slight rise in Swedish gas consumption over the coming years. The explanation is partly commissioning of new CHP plants of which the first – Øresund Power Station – is put into commercial operation in the spring of 2009. In the course of the years until possible commissioning of Skanled, Swedegas expects the gas off-take from Denmark via Dragør to run into 1.1-1.6 billion Nm3/year, depending on the number of degree days, gas and electricity prices. Following the commissioning of Skanled, Swedish consumption is set to rise at the same time as part of the current consumption is set to be covered by Skanled. So Swedegas expects a gas off-take via Dragør of 0.5-1 billion Nm3/year during the years after the establishment of Skanled. With Skanled, natural gas supplies to Sweden via Dragør are expected to fluctuate more over the year than is currently the case as Swedish shippers are likely to use the Danish stocks for seasonal adjustment. Swedegas has launched an ‘Open Season Light’, which will run into 2009 and whose purpose is to establish how much capacity the market players want at the various potential Swedish entry points, including Dragør.
4.2.3
Energinet.dk's assumptions in terms of projection
Given the uncertainty surrounding the consequences of the energy agreement for gas consumption, Energinet.dk is of the opinion that it is not reasonable to assess the need for gas infrastructure in the medium and long terms on this basis alone, and special attention should be paid to the timing of any reduction in natural gas consumption. In 2015, energy consumption cuts will yet have to feed fully through, but the reduction in North Sea production is expected to be pronounced. In all circumstances, new natural gas supplies for Denmark will have to be ensured before 2015. In recent years, the consumption of natural gas at Avedøre 2 Power Station has fluctuated between 168 million Nm3/year and 316 million Nm3/year, while that of Skærbæk Power Station has fluctuated between 175 million Nm3/year and 391 million Nm3/year. In 2006, the two power stations combined used 708 million Nm3, while they used only 370 million Nm3 in 2002. If Skærbæk Power Station does not switch to coal/biomass firing and the gas consumption of Avedøre Power Station
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turns out as forecast in DONG Energy's material for the idea phase consultation, this, all other things being equal, will lead to increased gas consumption to the tune of 400-450 million Nm3/year compared to the agreement-based projection. During the commenting phase for the plan for security of natural gas supply, DONG Energy announced in a letter to Energinet.dk that regardless of the outcome of DONG Energy’s assessments of the possibilities of switching fuel at Skærbæk and Avedøre 2 power stations, it should still be possible to use natural gas at the power stations. The other sharp reduction in the consumption of natural gas in the agreementbased projection is the one in CHP production, partly due to heating savings in district heating areas firing natural gas and partly due to the incorporation of biogas at some local CHP plants. The energy agreement’s clause on annual energy savings of 1.5% has not yet translated into specific legislative initiatives as previously described, and so it is uncertain whether the savings will have the same effect on all types of energy. Moreover, uncertainty surrounds the consequences of the initiatives related to enhanced conversion of individual natural gas firing to district heating. On the one hand, it will reduce the consumption of natural gas of individual customers, but, on the other hand, it may raise the consumption of natural gas at CHP plants if the conversion is to natural gas-fired district heating areas. In the light of this uncertainty, Energinet.dk has decided to analyse a process adhering to the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection and a process adhering to the agency’s previous base projection. Sweden has not prepared any similar projection of gas consumption like the one prepared for Denmark by the Danish Energy Agency. However, for the following estimate, Energinet.dk has decided to assume that also the Swedish energy consumption will fall in the agreement-based projection, meaning that also the gas consumption will fall. For 2015, the upper and lower limits of total consumption in Denmark and Sweden are estimated at 5.3 billion Nm3/year (previous base projection excluding Skanled) and 3.8 billion Nm3/year (agreement-based projection including Skanled), respectively.
Billion Nm3/year Previous base projection Agreement-based projection
Table 4
2015
2025
Denmark
3.9
3.9
Sweden (incl. Skanled)
0.8
0.8
Sweden (excl. Skanled)
1.4
1.4
Denmark
3.2
2.8
Sweden (incl. Skanled)
0.6
0.6
Sweden (excl. Skanled)
1.2
1.2
Forecast annual natural gas consumption in Denmark and exports to Sweden via Dragør. The volumes correspond to Danish natural gas quality.
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Million Nm3/day Previous base projection Agreement-based projection
Table 5
2015
2025
21.4
21.4
Sweden (incl. Skanled)
4.4
4.4
Sweden (excl. Skanled)
7.7
7.7
17.5
15.3
Sweden (incl. Skanled)
3.3
3.3
Sweden (excl. Skanled)
6.6
6.6
Denmark
Denmark
Forecast maximum daily consumption in Denmark and exports to Sweden via Dragør. The volumes correspond to Danish natural gas quality.
Energinet.dk assumes that the annual and maximum daily consumption in Denmark, respectively, and the natural gas off-take to Sweden via Dragør are as shown in Tables 4 and 5. For the maximum daily consumption, the forecasts use load factors of 0.5 for both Denmark and Sweden.
5. Future supplies 5.1
National reserves
In a few years, the Danish natural gas production will no longer be able to cover the Danish natural gas demand. The statement for 2007 reveals the beginnings of a drop in gas production in the Danish part of the North Sea, and the production is expected to drop significantly during the next 10 years. This is illustrated in Figure 11, showing the historical and expected future production. Today, Sweden is supplied from the Danish fields in the North Sea and will also be supplied partially via Dragør Border with Danish or German gas after the possible establishment of Skanled. The volume of Danish natural gas exported to Germany and the Netherlands remains uncertain. Exports to these countries and Sweden will expedite the time when Denmark will no longer be self-sufficient. Conversely, any contributions from research and technology may extend the self-sufficiency period by up to around 10 years. But none of these factors will change the fact that Denmark needs new natural gas sources to maintain security of supply.
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Figure 11 Historical and expected future natural gas production from Danish fields in the North Sea, excluding own consumption (sales gas); see ref. 3.
5.2
Regional reserves
In World Energy Review from BP, Europe’s and Eurasia’s total known reserves are stated at 59,410 billion m3. The statement is shown in Table 6 and was made at the turn of the year 2007/2008. After Russia, Norway is the country in Europe and Eurasia with the largest reserves. Denmark’s geographical location close to these reserves facilitates maintaining security of supply in the long run, once Denmark is no longer self-sufficient. However, Russian gas may also become relevant for Denmark via the transmission systems in Europe. Table 6 also shows production and consumption of natural gas in 2007. Europe and Eurasia seen in isolation and using 2007 consumption as starting point, natural gas reserves will last for approx. 50 years. However, Russian gas is exported to Asia while increasing volumes of gas are imported to Europe as LNG. Russia
Norway Available reserves at the end of 2007 2007 production 2007 consumption Table 6
Billion m3 Billion m3/year Billion m3/year
Europe and Eurasia
2,960
44,650
59,410
90
607
1,076
4
439
1,156
Reserves available in Europe and Eurasia compared with 2007 consumption and production. Source: BP's World Energy Review.
5.3
Production
The maximum supply of natural gas from the Danish fields in the North Sea via the Nybro treatment plant is estimated to be limited to approx. 27 million Nm3/day. This restriction is due to the capacity of the Tyra-Nybro pipeline and the relatively low volumes in the Syd Arne pipeline.
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In winter 2008/2009, maximum supplies are estimated at some 23 million Nm3/day via Nybro. Before gas was supplied directly from Tyra to the Netherlands in 2004, supplies amounted to up to 26 million Nm3/day in Nybro. Annual production is forecast at some 8.5 billion Nm3 in 2009, of which about 6.3 billion Nm3 should come via Nybro. Production in the Danish section of the North Sea has peaked and will start decreasing significantly in a few years. This will be of significance to the security of supply within a short period of time if the infrastructure is not expanded to get access to new sources.
5.4
Storage
Denmark’s two natural gas storage facilities are owned and operated by DONG Energy and Energinet.dk Gaslager. Since Energinet.dk is responsible for the security of supply and the balance in the Danish transmission grid, Energinet.dk may make arrangements for storage capacity at both facilities as per its capacity agreements. Shippers also depend on the storage facilities for balancing, ie for supplementing supplies or depositing excess volumes. Table 7 lists the characteristics of the storage facilities and is applicable to 2008/2009.
Owner Total volume Working gas Total withdrawal capacity Total injection capacity Table 7
Lille Torup
Stenlille
Energinet.dk 696 million Nm3 437 million Nm3 14.4 million Nm3/day 3.6 million Nm3/day
DONG Energy 1,462 million Nm3 572 million Nm3 11.0 million Nm3/day 2.4 million Nm3/day
Denmark’s natural gas storage facilities. Withdrawal capacities are capacities, grid bottlenecks being disregarded. Under certain circumstances, actual injection capacities may be larger than specified.
Europe has a great demand for storage capacity. The storage companies in Denmark have therefore looked into the possibilities of expanding the existing storage facilities. Both storage facilities are expected to expand within a 10-year time horizon.
5.5
Imports
The current infrastructure only facilitates imports of natural gas from Germany via Ellund. However, physical net imports are not planned for 2009. On an annual basis, net exports are expected to remain at the same level as in previous years, but the possibility of changing direction of the physical flow is being considered. During the commenting phase of the plan for security of natural gas supply, DONG Energy announced in a letter to Energinet.dk that, as a consequence of decreasing Danish gas production, DONG Energy expects to start physical imports of gas from Germany at the end of 2010. In subsequent years, an increasing need for physical gas supplies from Germany to Denmark is expected. DONG Energy is also of the opinion that improved access to European gas supply will contribute to long-term security of supply.
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Limited resources in the Danish part of the North Sea imply a demand for imports of natural gas within the coming 10 years for reasons of security of supply. A number of alternative import options have therefore been assessed as part of Energinet.dk’s natural gas infrastructure strategy work with a view to maintaining security of supply in the long term and to diversifying the natural gas market. Energinet.dk’s work for long term gas supply has meant that a number of import options have been identified. These include - see description in section 6.4.3: -
Skanled Baltic Pipe Ellund
The list is not exhaustive, but represents realistic possibilities for the future supply of Denmark. One or several of the projects are expected to reach investment decision in connection with Energinet.dk’s Open Season in 2009.
5.6
Exports
Exports via the Danish transmission grid for 2009 are estimated at around 2.3 billion Nm3/year – 1.3 billion Nm3/year to Germany and 1 billion Nm3/year to Sweden. Maximum physical daily volumes are expected to amount to 7-8 million Nm3/day to Germany and 5-6 million Nm3/day to Sweden. For 2013 and onwards, it is deemed realistic to achieve exports of 3 billion Nm3/year to Poland via Baltic Pipe with a maximum daily volume of 9 million Nm3/day, while exports to Germany will have stopped. Expansion of the infrastructure with Baltic Pipe is being considered together with other expansions in relation to Skanled and Ellund, for example, so that the national natural gas balance is maintained at all times.
5.7
LNG
Energinet.dk still does not consider a Danish LNG import terminal as a viable expansion alternative seen from a socio-economic and security of supply perspective. Therefore, supplies via LNG do not form part of the plan for security of supply for the coming 10 years. However, it is an option that can be reassessed regularly.
5.8
Gas quality
In general, the quality of natural gas in Denmark is likely to change when new supply lines are established. Similarly, customers are set to experience major variations in gas quality. This applies regardless of whether future supplies will come from Norway, Germany or Russia or as LNG. Danish natural gas has always had a high Wobbe index compared to the surrounding systems. The explanation is that Danish gas has a relatively high content of ethane, propane and butane, which is not extracted from the natural gas. Norway typically extracts these intermediate fractions, which are sold separately as for example LPG or used as raw material or fuel gas. Over the past eight years, the Wobbe index of the Danish gas distributed has been in the range of 15.0-15.5 kWh/Nm3 (54.0-55.8 MJ/Nm3). Due to the possibility of importing
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German gas in the short term, the lower limit of the Wobbe index has been changed from 51.9 MJ/Nm3 to 50.8 MJ/Nm3. The Danish Safety Technology Authority issued a technical statement on this in 2007. Thus the gas rules allow distribution of Wobbe index in the 50.8-55.8 MJ/Nm3 interval (14.1-15-5 kWh/Nm3). Customers being supplied with pure Russian, Norwegian or German gas in future will see a much lower Wobbe index than today. Customers located in regions that can be supplied from two sides will see much greater variation in gas quality, depending on the existing flow conditions, and thus in the gas supplied. The EU has started establishing a common European gas specification. This work is based on the EASEE-gas specification, which is a recommendation for specification in socalled border points, ie transition points between countries. The work on the EU specification is expected to last at least 4-5 years. Energinet.dk’s objective is that the EASEE-gas specification is implemented in 2010. Smaller volumes of gas are expected to be imported from Germany already from 2010, but in the long term larger volumes are expected to come from Germany, Norway and/or Poland. This gas is expected to observe the coming EU specification. The current Danish specification will limit the possibilities of importing gas. It is therefore necessary to work towards implementing a broader specification in Denmark. Energinet.dk, in concert with the distribution companies, has appointed a working group for the purpose of ensuring that the necessary measures are taken for safe gas use and smooth transport of new and more varying gas qualities in the Danish natural gas system. The working group also includes representatives of the Danish Gas Technology Centre, the Danish Safety Technology Authority and the Danish National Working Environment Authority. Activities to be launched immediately include boiler test, reassessment of regulation procedures and handling of a greater variation in calorific value for settlement. Biogas is expected to be introduced in distribution systems and possibly in the transmission system as well. Today, any biogas in the transmission system must be able to meet current specifications and in the long term EU specifications corresponding to all other supplies.
6. Transmission 6.1
Executed and expected capacity orders
Figure 12 shows current capacity orders at 17 November 2008 until 1 March 2010 for Exit Zone Denmark, Nybro, Ellund (entry and exit) and Dragør Border.
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Figure 12 Capacity orders at 17 November 2008.
Shippers’ total reservation of annual and monthly capacity is lower than the level estimated by Energinet.dk as the maximum off-take. The reason for this is that shippers can supplement their reservations by ordering capacity on a weekly and daily basis and taking hours with overrun if short spells of extreme winter temperatures are expected. Energinet.dk expects shippers to order capacity based on an expectation that daily mean temperatures will be as in normal years. The possibilities of shippers/gas suppliers of interrupting customers in normal situations may very much influence the off-take at very cold temperatures.
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6.2
Short-term security of supply
Energinet.dk designs the transmission system based on the shippers’ capacity orders and on the basis of Energinet.dk’s assessment of forecast domestic sales at daily mean temperatures of -13 °C. This temperature is applied in accordance with the Danish Meteorological Institute’s report to the Danish Energy Agency; see ref. 4. The M/R stations of the transmission system have the capacity necessary for handling the volumes typically purchased by the regional distribution companies. Energinet.dk makes annual assessments of possible off-take by all stations, and any increases in consumption or pipeline configurations in the distribution grids, which may change the distribution of consumption on individual stations, will be coordinated with the distribution companies on an ongoing basis. The assessment for this year shows that the calculated capacities for individual M/R stations on Zealand fail to observe HNG Distribution’s expectations for off-take under normal circumstances at daily mean temperatures of -13 °C; see section 7.2.3.3.1. At the extreme ends at Lynge, Aalborg and Dragør, the M/R stations must be able to deliver the necessary volumes at an inlet pressure of 45 bar, which is the lowest assumed pressure in normal situations. At the extreme end of Ellund, the minimum pressure is 55 bar. In emergency situations, the pressure in the transmission system is assumed to be able to fall to 35 bar at the extreme ends, but the necessary supplies via the M/R stations will be reduced at the same time due to interruption of consumers, including directly connected primary power stations, which reduce the gas off-take according to contract.
6.2.1
Winter outlook
Below follows a brief description of the assumptions underlying the normal situation for the 2008/2009 winter; see Table 8 and figure 13. -
Total net transports are estimated at 38.5 million Nm3/day, of which consumption in Denmark represents about 25.5 million Nm3/day. For exit zone Denmark, sales correspond to Energinet.dk’s expectations at daily mean temperatures of -13 °C.
-
Total withdrawal from the storage facilities is estimated at 15 million Nm3/day with 8 million Nm3/day coming from Stenlille and 7 million Nm3/day from Lille Torup. Optimised distribution of withdrawals is used to achieve the highest possible pressure in the grid.
-
In Ellund, net transports were 7 million Nm3/day, or 292,000 Nm3/hour, and in Dragør, the figures were 6 million Nm3/day, or 250,000 Nm3/hour.
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Entry Million Nm3/day Exit zone Denmark Dragør Ellund net Nybro Storage facility, Stenlille Storage facility, Lille Torup Total net Table 8
23.5 8.0 7.0 38.5
Exit Million Nm3/day 25.5 6.0 7.0
38.5
Forecast for net transport at a daily mean temperature of -13 oC in winter 2008/2009 (normal situation).
Figure 13 Forecast for a winter situation with a daily mean temperature of -13 o C in 2008/2009 (normal situation).
6.2.2
Capacity reserves in normal situations
Today, the Danish gas transmission system receives gas through two offshore pipelines with the following capacities: -
Tyra-Nybro pipeline about 27 million Nm³/day Syd Arne-Nybro pipeline about 13 million Nm³/day.
In normal situations, supplies amount to 0.5 million Nm³/day through the Syd Arne pipeline – the rest comes via the Tyra pipeline. The Syd Arne pipeline thus has ample capacity for use in emergency supply situations. The storage facilities in Stenlille and Lille Torup, whose characteristics appear from Table 7, constitute a significant part of the capacity reserves, even under normal circumstances. The maximum withdrawal capacity of the Stenlille storage facility, which is of the aquifer type, is determined by the capacity of the wells and the current gas volume. The withdrawal capacity of the Lille Torup storage facility is determined by both the current gas volume, the capacity of the pipeline from Lille Torup–Egtved and the pressure in the rest of the transmission system.
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The ability of the storage facilities to withdraw and inject gas for a single hour is determined by the individual facility’s physical properties (process capacity and subsoil conditions) and pressure conditions in the transmission system. Pressure conditions in the transmission system are in normal situations generally determined by shippers’ and storage customers’ orders, but they may be adjusted using Energinet.dk’s operational tools (line pack, buffer in adjacent systems, additional withdrawals from storage facilities or injection, etc.) to ensure optimum pressure conditions in the system with a view to observing the transmission systems' pressure limits and achieving the highest degree of security of supply. Energinet.dk must ensure that the individual storage facility owners can make optimum use of their available physical storage capacity without limiting the possibilities of other storage facility owners of making use of their capacity or reducing Energinet.dk’s possibilities of fulfilling its obligations in terms of security of supply. This being the case, Energinet.dk and the storage facility companies have fixed the maximum commercial withdrawal capacities (possible withdrawal in normal situations) for the gas storage facilities in Lille Torup and Stenlille for the storage year 1 May 2008 to 1 May 2009 at 7 million Nm3/day and 8 million Nm3/day, respectively. Moreover, Energinet.dk has entered into a so-called swap agreement for the storage year, which ensures that Energinet.dk can determine the physical location of the gas at the two storage facilities to ensure maximum security of supply.
6.3
Emergency supply
Energinet.dk is responsible for security of supply in keeping with the executive order on responsibility for the security of supply of natural gas. In a worst-case scenario, the supply from the largest source of supply is disrupted. This means that the supplies via the Tyra-Nybro pipeline fail.
6.3.1
Means
Energinet.dk can handle the risk of interruptions in case of design contingencies with the following: -
Emergency supplies from Danish gas storage facilities Emergency supply from Tyra via Harald through the Syd Arne-Nybro pipeline Interruption of secondary emergency supply Supplies from Germany via the DEUDAN pipeline.
6.3.1.1 Storage services In addition to supplies via the Syd Arne pipeline, the emergency supply strategy means that Energinet.dk has reserved storage volume of 219 million Nm3 for the winter 2008/2009 based on the calculation in Table 9 of the emergency supply requirements for two months in case of failing supplies from the Tyra-Nybro pipeline.
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Million Nm3
Dimensioning month (March)
Total consumption Interruptible consumption
1,078 349 (estimated)
Emergency supply requirements Emergency supply to Denmark from Syd Arne Shippers’ storage filling restrictions Storage requirements Table 9
729 420 90 219
Emergency supply requirements for two months.
It should be noted that – to ensure synergies between stocks for load equalisation and emergency supply – Energinet.dk has made sure that storage customers cover a large part of their requirements with filling requirements through agreements with the storage companies. This means that shippers in the individual months commit themselves to maintaining a certain stock volume that can be used in emergency situations to supply the Danish gas market. On 1 March, 12% of the shippers’ storage capacity must be left in the storage. For the purpose of handling shorter-term interruptions of supplies from the North Sea, Energinet.dk has reserved withdrawal capacity from the storage facilities to compensate for the failing supplies. Moreover, Energinet.dk can make use of the limited gas volumes which are naturally stored in the actual gas pipelines – the socalled line pack. The withdrawal capacity of the two storage facilities is distributed differently over the year for emergency supply situations. 6.3.1.2 Supplies from Syd Arne Energinet.dk has signed an emergency supply agreement with DONG Energy, paving the way in emergency supply situations for supplies of 7 million Nm³/day from Tyra via Harald through the Syd Arne-Nybro pipeline for the Danish market. Usually the gas flows via the Harald pipeline from the Harald field to the Tyra platform where it is processed before it is sent ashore via the Tyra pipeline. In an emergency supply situation, gas would flow in the opposite direction in the Harald pipeline and be sent via the Syd-Arne pipeline to the shore. In this situation, supplies from the Syd-Arne field and the Harald field are expected to stop since capacity in the pipelines is limited and supplies from the Tyra platform will take up the capacity. 6.3.1.3 Secondary emergency supply (emergency supply concept) Energinet.dk’s concept for secondary (interruptible) emergency supply allows the largest consumption sites to opt out of the statutory emergency supply ’insurance’. In this context, the largest consumption sites are sites with annual gas consumption exceeding 2 million Nm3. Under the emergency supply concept, Energinet.dk offers three categories of emergency supply as illustrated in Table 10. The three categories can be combined into partially secondary emergency supply where the consumer must be able to
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reduce part of its consumption within three or 36 hours. This implies that part of the off-take is hyper-interruptible (interrupted within three hours), part constitutes 36-hour secondary emergency supply and the rest is primary (uninterruptible) emergency supply. By combining the three categories, the degree of ‘insurance’ may be composed to fit the individual consumption site. This ensures flexibility in relation to the interruptibility of consumers. Category Primary emergency supply 36-hour secondary emergency supply
Hyper-interruptible emergency supply
Terms Primary (60 days) emergency supply Full insurance In case of 36-hour secondary emergency supply, the gas off-take at the consumption site must be reduced within 36 hours after an emergency supply situation has been declared. In case of hyper-interruptible emergency supply, the gas off-take at the consumption site must be reduced within three hours after an emergency supply situation has been declared.
Table 10 Emergency supply categories in new emergency supply concept.
In emergency supply situations, consumers who have entered into a contract on secondary emergency supply with Energinet.dk are handled in cooperation between the distribution companies and Energinet.dk. Cooperation is illustrated schematically in Figure 14. When Energinet.dk assesses that an emergency supply situation exists, Energinet.dk will issue an emergency supply declaration to the distribution companies, directly to the hyper-interruptible consumers and the system operators in Sweden and Germany. The distribution companies will immediately contact the 36-hour interruptible consumers and inform them of the emergency supply declaration. In the following hours, Energinet.dk will monitor the off-take of the hyperinterruptible consumers. If no reduction in off-take is made under the contract concluded, the hyper-interruptible consumers will be contacted to ensure the interruption. After 20 hours, the distribution companies will retrieve hourly data every six hours and send the data to Energinet.dk, which monitors the off-take of the 36-hour interruptible consumers. If no reduction in off-take is made under the contract, Energinet.dk will contact the relevant distribution company to ensure the interruption. The distribution company will immediately contact the customer with a view to reducing off-take. Both hyper-interruptible and 36-hour interruptible consumers failing to interrupt their off-take under the agreements made on interruptibility will be interrupted physically by the distribution company on the instance of Energinet.dk.
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5
Prepare interruption for C3 after 36 hours
36-hour interruptible consumers
3 Hyper– interruptible consumers
Interruption after 36 hours
6
1
Energinet.dk
Closing of consumption site
Adjusts consumption according to agreement
Interruption after 3 hours
Energinet.dk issues emergency supply declaration for distribution and hyper-interruptible customers + shippers and storage customers as well as Sweden and Germany
Adjusts consumption according to agreement
Energinet.dk monitors consumption
Energinet.dk contacts/asks distribution to contact consumers if interruptibility profile is not observed
Closing of consumption site
7 Energinet.dk asks distribution to close consumption sites in breach of agreement
4 2 Distribution reports an emergency event to 36-hour interruptible consumers
Distribution retrieves data after 20 hours and every six hours
Distribution contacts consumption sites regarding overrun
Distribution closes consumption site
Distribution
Figure 14 Procedure during declaration of emergency supply for handling (emergency) interruptible consumers.
6.3.1.4 Other tools, including supplies from Germany In addition to the alternative gas supplies available to Energinet.dk, Energinet.dk has entered into cooperation agreements with the neighbouring system operators, which provides necessary operational flexibility. Initially, supplies from Germany via the DEUDAN pipeline will take place on a commercial basis if there is a physical flow towards Germany and thus a possibility of back-haul (or back flow). At the end of an emergency situation, eg a 60-day event, the pressure in the Danish system will probably be so low that physical flow from Germany to Denmark becomes possible. Alternatively, physical flow from Germany is secured by closing the southbound valve in Egtved so that the south Jutland part of the Danish gas system is controlled from Germany, and gas with a German calorific value is isolated in this area. Energinet.dk cooperates with Gasunie Deutschland to identify the possibilities and ensure the necessary, commercial agreements on gas supplies to the Danish system. In an extreme scenario where an event or a combination of events causes a more severe supply situation than the contingency is designed to handle, the provisions on force majeure in the Rules for Gas Transport will enter into force. This implies that for instance general provisions of primary emergency supply will be inoperative and that Energinet.dk can make a prioritised interruption of consumers based on overall system requirements and consideration for required consumption.
6.3.2
Prioritisation of means
The Rules for Gas Transport contain a number of conditions which ensure that in certain situations, Energinet.dk can influence or make arrangements for the supply and consumption of gas to optimise the security of supply and the gas system. This applies to interruptible consumers, reduced nomination, reduced capacity, emergency supply and force majeure.
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Any decisions concerning the means by which Energinet.dk secures supplies are based on the premise that the effects of any technical problems on the market should be minimal. The specific supply and weather situation and the actual status of the natural gas system are important parameters for the timing and sequence of use of the various means, for which reason it is not possible to detail in advance when and how the individual means must be used. In the event of major interruptions of supplies from the North Sea, a number of measures will be taken to secure the supply to the Danish gas market. As described above, the primary tools comprise: -
Supplies from storage facilities Use of line pack of land-based pipelines and offshore pipelines Hyper and 36-hour interruptible consumption; see emergency supply concept in section 6.3.1.3 Supplies from the Syd Arne pipeline Supplies from Germany via the DEUDAN pipeline
In an emergency situation, Energinet.dk takes over all transport of gas in the system. Energinet.dk’s emergency supply obligations apply only to the Danish gas market, but in so far as shippers ensure the availability of gas for transit at the entry points or from storage facilities, Energinet.dk will seek to make the necessary transport capacity available if the physical situation so permits. As described in the Rules for Gas Transport, Energinet.dk must in the event of emergency distribute available natural gas volumes in the Danish natural gas market in due consideration of: 1. Concluded agreements on emergency supply in accordance with the new emergency supply concept; see 6.3.1.1. 2. The consequences for consumers must be minimised, preferably by not interrupting supplies to consumers sensitive to irregularities in the supply of natural gas. In this context, it should be pointed out that, if possible, shippers and storage customers must continue supplying natural gas to the Danish natural gas system at the entry points and the storage facilities. Transit is maintained in an emergency supply situation within the framework of the Danish Act on Natural Gas Supply. This means that transit is maintained on the assumption that shippers are able to make the required natural gas volumes available for transit at the entry points or storage facilities, and that Energinet.dk at the same time has a physical possibility of transporting these volumes via the transmission system in the emergency situation.
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6.4
Security of supply in the long run (gas infrastructure work)
The steeply dropping natural gas resources in the Danish part of the North Sea make it plain that special attention should be paid to security of supply in the long run. In the following, likely expansion infrastructure alternatives that may satisfy Danish natural gas requirements have been described. Comprehensive gas infrastructure work at Energinet.dk identifies key alternatives outlined in sections 6.4.3 to 6.4.6. Initially, the zero investment alternative has been described in section 6.4.2 with the related implications. The uncertainties described above concerning the long-term development in consumption in Denmark and Sweden as well as the uncertainties as to which supply lines the shippers will use create a need for having clear signals from the market before any investment decisions are made. Energinet.dk has therefore decided to start an Open Season process.
6.4.1
Open Season for determination of infrastructure expansion
At the end of October 2008, Energinet.dk issued a model paper describing the Open Season process Energinet.dk intends to implement in 2009. The model paper describes the entry/exit points which Energinet.dk expects are realistic to expand before 2015. These concern the existing cross-border points in Ellund and Dragør and new points in Sæby (from Norway) and Avedøre (to and from Poland). Moreover, the players had the chance to propose new points before the end of November. In spring 2009, Energinet.dk will conduct the first non-binding phase in which shippers can make a long-term and a short/medium-term bid for the capacity at each entry/exit point offered. In the subsequent binding phase, the bids may only deviate by a pre-fixed percentage compared with the first non-binding bid. The second half of 2009 will see the implementation of the second binding phase of the Open Season process and agreements on expansion of the capacity required will be concluded with the shippers. Based on the shippers’ requirements and Energinet.dk’s own planning, a final decision is expected in December 2009 on which infrastructure expansion to start. Expansion minimum limits have been defined for all entry/exit points so that Energinet.dk only undertakes to expand capacity if demand is sufficiently high to ensure reasonable investments, and reservations are made in respect of required authority approvals and decisions in adjacent systems. The investment alternatives forming the basis for the possible capacities in the suggested entry/exit points have been described in the following sections together with their implications for supply possibilities for the Danish and Swedish markets.
6.4.2
Zero investment alternative
As illustrated in Figure 11, gas supplies from the Danish part of the North Sea are expected to drop from 9 billion Nm3 annually to approx. 5 billion Nm3 in 2015. This corresponds to current Danish and Swedish consumption. If exports to the
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Netherlands via Nogat and to Germany via Ellund are reduced to zero, consumption in Denmark and Sweden in 2015 is just barely covered. This scenario is considered likely if consumption remains at the current level. After this, production in the North Sea will drop further and is expected to reach zero in 2025-2030. 6.4.2.1 Halving of possible gas supplies to Danish and Swedish consumers Under the zero investment alternative, no investments are made in the Danish gas transmission system. Since the production in the Danish part of the North Sea is expected to stop entirely before 2030, gas will only enter via the border point in Ellund. The consequence is that it will only be possibly to supply up to 2.0 billion m3 gas to Danish customers annually and 0.5 billion m3 to the Swedish market. This is less than half the gas supplied today. Even this limited supply is based on a number of conditions that are described in the following. Maximum day consumption is expected to be about halved. 6.4.2.2 Constant supply from Germany Supply of 2.5 billion m3 gas annually to the Danish/Swedish market requires an almost constant supply of 7.4 million m3/day all year via Ellund to Denmark. The analyses only consider the physical possibilities in the Danish system for supplying gas from the border point in Ellund to the Danish and Swedish consumers on the assumption that the gas is supplied at 60 bar at the Ellund border point. The analyses do not take into account any gas suppliers wanting to sell gas to the Danish market, just as they do not assess the investments required in the German grid to ensure supplies of a daily volume of 7.4 million m3 to the border point on the German side. 6.4.2.3 Gas supplies via Germany The supply of 7.4 million m3 natural gas per day to the Danish market via Ellund requires upgrades of the German grid. Today, the Germans are unable to supply gas at 60 bar at Ellund. So in order to fulfil the agreement on this pressure, capacity on the German side between Quarnstadt and Ellund must be upgraded. Nor is it currently possible to supply gas volumes of this magnitude through the German grid to the DEUDAN pipeline south of the Danish border. Today, Germany imports the majority of its gas; a trend that is expected to continue in the coming years. Any supply of Danish and Swedish consumers via Germany therefore requires that the gas comes from Russia, Norway or other suppliers via the German system to the Danish/German border point. Supplies will likely require significant investments in the German grid. A possible supplier of gas to the Danish and Swedish consumers could be Russia via Nord Stream, which is expected to be complete in 2011, and on which DONG Energy has made supply agreements.
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6.4.2.4 Storage facility use In cooperation with storage facility companies, it is necessary to assess the capacity needed at Ellund in order for the storage facilities to have adequate flexibility in regard to filling. 6.4.2.5 Possibility of covering the gas requirement The zero investment alternative is unable to cover the gas demand. This applies despite the Danish Energy Agency’s projection, including annual savings of 1.5% and the conversion of Skærbæk Power Station and the main boiler at Avedøre Power Station Unit 2 from gas to coal and biomass firing; see section 4.2. This applies if only Danish requirements are considered, but to an even greater extent if the Swedish requirements are included.
6.4.3
Expansion alternatives
An overview of expansion alternatives discussed and assessed as part of Energinet.dk’s strategy work on the gas infrastructure (GISA) is shown in Figure 15.
Figure 15 Expansion alternatives in Energinet.dk’s strategy work on the gas infrastructure (GISA).
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As a result of the strategy work, Energinet.dk’s further planning is set to focus on an expansion alternative called the main alternative, which is assessed to constitute a likely constellation of projects. The main alternative comprises the establishment of Skanled and Baltic Pipe and an expansion in Germany for supplies via Ellund. The expansion will also comprise domestic reinforcements in the form of compressor stations and doubling of pipelines. A possible minimum solution involving expansion in Germany and domestic reinforcement comprising doubling of the pipeline between Ellund and Egtved and possibly a compressor station at the Danish-German border are also being considered. Establishment of a compressor station on the Avedøre-Dragør section is also being considered.
6.4.4
Natural gas balances and capacity assessments
Tables 11 and 12 list annual balances for natural gas in Denmark. The balances have been listed for the years 2015 and 2025. The year 2015 represents the situation after expansion of the infrastructure under the main alternative or the minimum solution. 2025 represents the situation in the long run. This year concurs with the end year in the Danish Energy Agency’s projection of natural gas consumption in ref. 1. The balances assume that the Danish fields in the North Sea will be depleted by 2025. Year
Natural gas type
Supply
Point/Zone
2015
2025
Zero investment alternative Danish gas
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Zero investment alternative
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Danish and German gas
German gas
German gas
German and Norwegian gas
Billion Nm3/year 4.0
Danish, German and Norwegian gas Billion Nm3/year 4.2
Billion Nm3/year 1.9
Billion Nm3/year 4.2
Billion Nm3/year 4.3
Exit zone Denmark Dragør
Exit
Billion Nm3/year 3.9
Exit
1.4
1.4
0.8
0.5
0.9
0.9
Baltic Pipe
Exit
-
-
3.0
-
-
1.0
Ellund
Exit
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
Exit
5.3
5.4
8.0
2.4
5.1
6.2
Ellund
Entry
0
2.7
2.9
2.4
5.1
4.1
Nybro
Entry
5.3
2.7
3.0
0
0
0
Skanled
Entry
-
-
2.1
-
-
2.1
Total
Entry
5.3
5.4
8.0
2.4
5.1
6.2
Table 11 Annual balances for physical flow. Main alternative, minimum solution and zero investment alternative. Danish natural gas consumption as outlined in the Danish Energy Agency’s base projection; see ref. 1.
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Year
Natural gas type
Supply
Point/Zone
2015 Zero investment alternative Danish gas
2025
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Zero investment alternative
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Danish, German and Norwegian gas Billion Nm3/year
German gas
German gas
Billion Nm3/year
Danish and German gas Billion Nm3/year
Billion Nm3/year
3.5
1.9
Billion Nm3/yea r 3.0
German and Norwegian gas Billion Nm3/year
Exit zone Denmark Dragør
Exit
3.2
3.4
3.0
Exit
1.2
1.2
0.6
0.5
1.3
0.7
Baltic Pipe
Exit
-
-
3.0
-
-
1.0
Ellund
Exit
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
Exit
4.4
4.6
7.1
2.4
4.3
4.7
Ellund
Entry
0
2.3
2.6
2.4
4.3
2.6
Nybro
Entry
4.4
2.3
2.4
0
0
0
Skanled
Entry
-
-
2.1
-
-
2.1
Total
Entry
4.4
4.6
7.1
2.4
4.3
4.7
Table 12 Annual balances for physical flow. Main alternative, minimum solution and zero investment alternative. Danish natural gas consumption as outlined in the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection; see ref. 1..
Balances comprise the zero investment alternative without expansion in Denmark. The consequence of not making an expansion will be considerable, forced reduction of Danish and Swedish natural gas consumption in the long term since the current infrastructure does not allow transport of volumes corresponding to the forecast Danish consumption. In the zero investment alternative, Denmark and Sweden can receive German gas via Ellund (60 bar) in 2025 in volumes of just under half the current design consumption. However, this requires an expansion in Germany; see section 6.4.2. The balances are listed under two different assumptions relating to Danish and Swedish natural gas consumption. Table 11 assumes that Danish consumption remains at current levels until 2025, corresponding to the Danish Energy Agency’s previous base projection, while Table 12 assumes that consumption abates in accordance with the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement projection; see ref. 1 and section 4.2. Section 4.2 also describes the conditions of the Swedish consumption. Similar to the above annual balances, Tables 13 and 14 list maximum daily balances, stating the maximum expected physical flows on a daily basis at the entry and exit points of the transmission grid and for Exit zone Denmark and the storage facilities. The balances of the main alternative based on the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection as regards Danish natural gas consumption are also illustrated in Figure 16.
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Figure 16 Maximum daily balances for the main alternative, Skanled + Baltic Pipe + Ellund in 2015 and 2025. Danish natural gas consumption as in the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection; see ref. 1.
The various consumption scenarios assume that the maximum daily share of total consumption is about the same level as today. In connection with the calculations, the forecasts use a load factor for consumption in Denmark and Sweden of 0.5 in both the base projection and the agreement-based projection. When consumption is reduced, it is assumed that maximum daily consumption is reduced. In all the alternatives, the load factor for supplies is 0.9. Today, total possible supplies from gas storage facilities are assumed to be 15 million Nm3/day, but it is a requirement that withdrawal capacity is increased to 19 million Nm3/day in the main alternative. The tables show that balance during the maximum day can be achieved under the zero investment alternative by withdrawing a total of 15 million Nm3/day from the storage facilities.
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Year Point/Zone
2015
2025
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Zero investment alternative
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Natural gas type
Zero investment alternative Danish gas
Danish and German gas
German gas
German gas
German and Norwegian gas
Exit zone Denmark Dragør
Exit
Million Nm3/day 21.3
Million Nm3/day 22.1
Danish, German and Norwegian gas Million Nm3/day 22.8
Million Nm3/day 10.7
Million Nm3/day 23.0
Million Nm3/day 23.4
Exit
7.7
7.9
4.6
2.7
4.7
4.8
Baltic Pipe
Exit
-
-
9.2
-
-
3.1
Ellund
Exit
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
Exit
29.0
30.0
36.6
13.4
27.7
31.3
Ellund
Entry
0
8.3
9.0
7.4
15.4
12.4
Nybro
Entry
16.1
8.3
9.0
0
0
0
Skanled
Entry
-
-
6.3
-
-
6.3
Lille Torup
Withdraw al Withdraw al Entry
8.0
8.0
9.5
3.0
8.0
9.5
8.0
8.0
9.5
3.0
8.0
9.5
32.1
32.6
43.3
13.4
31.4
37.7
3.1
2.6
6.7
0
3.7
6.4
Stenlille Total Excess capacity
Alternative
Entry
Table 13 Maximum day balances for physical flow. Main alternative and zero investment alternative. Danish natural gas consumption as outlined in the Danish Energy Agency’s previous base projection; see ref. 1.
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Year Point/Zone
2015
2025
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Zero investment alternative
Minimum solution
Main alternative
Natural gas type
Zero investment alternative Danish gas
Danish and German gas
German gas
German gas
German and Norwegian gas
Exit zone Denmark Dragør
Exit
Million Nm3/day 17.7
Million Nm3/day 18.3
Danish, German and Norwegian gas Million Nm3/day 19.0
Million Nm3/day 10.7
Million Nm3/day 16.2
Million Nm3/day 16.6
Exit
6.6
6.7
3.5
2.7
7.0
3.6
Baltic Pipe
Exit
-
-
9.2
-
-
3.1
Ellund
Exit
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
Exit
24.3
25.0
31.7
13.4
23.2
23.3
Ellund
Entry
0
7.0
8.0
7.4
12.9
8.0
Nybro
Entry
13.5
7.0
7.4
0
0
0
Skanled
Entry
-
-
6.3
-
-
6.3
Lille Torup
Withdraw al Withdraw al Entry
8.0
8.0
9.5
3.0
8.0
9.5
8.0
8.0
9.5
3.0
8.0
9.5
29.5
30.0
40.7
13.4
28.9
33.3
5.2
5.0
9.0
0
5.7
10.0
Stenlille Total Excess capacity
Alternative
Entry
Table 14 Maximum day balances for physical flow. Main alternative and zero investment alternative. Danish natural gas consumption as outlined in the Danish Energy Agency’s agreement-based projection; see ref. 1.
Under the main alternative, a storage facility withdrawal capacity of 19 million Nm3/day results in excess capacity in both 2015 and 2025. Excess capacity is listed in Tables 13 and 14. Imminent domestic requirements for capacity expansion of the storage facilities are not assessed to be necessary. Any emergency supply of Sweden will create a need. No assessment of the need for increasing the volume of the storage facilities has been made. Capacity reservations on Skanled for transport to Denmark account for 6.3 million Nm3/day. However, Skanled and the domestic reinforcement until Lille Torup will be designed to a maximum day volume of 13.3 million Nm3/day as a consequence of the possibility of renomination on Skanled. This means that it is possible to move capacity from Norway and Sweden to Denmark. In the long run, minimum pressure in Dragør should be expected to drop to the design 45 bar if gas supplies to Poland are to go through Denmark. In this case, the Swedish transmission system will not be able to receive 250,000 Nm3/h in Dragør. Whether this need still exists will depend on supplies to Sweden via Skanled for instance, and the need for load equalisation via Danish gas storage facilities. If
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larger supplies to Sweden are still required, a compressor station can be established on the Danish side on the Avedøre-Dragør section. No final capacity calculations have been made for the maximum day balances listed in which the inclusion of calorific values entails increased volumes; however, the balances are assessed as realistic based on preliminary calculations. During the commenting phase for the plan for security of natural gas supply, DONG Energy announced in a letter to Energinet.dk that regardless of the outcome of DONG Energy’s assessments of the possibilities of switching fuel at Skærbæk and Avedøre 2 power stations, it should still be possible to use natural gas at the power stations. So far, this wish from DONG Energy is only included as an estimate in the above maximum day balances for the Danish Energy Agency’s previous base projection.
6.4.5
Gas quality aspects of expansion
The main alternative includes supplies of Danish, German and Norwegian gas in 2015, but only of German and Norwegian gas in 2025. German gas is understood as a mix of Norwegian, Russian and other natural gas from Northern Germany at Ellund. Norwegian gas (Skanled gas) is understood as natural gas of Kårstø quality but with a lower content of ethane since the ethane content is reduced in Rafnes on its way to Denmark. The balances include gas quality in accordance with the assumptions listed in Table 15. In terms of gas quality, it is taken into account that natural gas from Germany and Norway has a lower calorific value than gas from the Danish part of the North Sea. This implies that the natural gas volume sold in exit zone Denmark, for example, will vary in the balances depending on the calorific value as the energy volume sold is kept at a constant level. Natural gas type Danish gas
Upper calorific value applied (kWhø/Nm3) 12.2
German gas
11.4
Norwegian gas (Skanled)
10.8
Table 15 Upper calorific values applied in annual balances.
Quality differences between sources feeding various places in the transmission system result in geographical variations, meaning that consumers in various parts of the country cannot expect the same gas quality; see Figure 17. This entails special challenges in areas that will experience varying gas quality over time due to varying volumes.
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Figure 17 Illustration of the geographical effect on the gas quality in case of expansion with Skanled or expansion to Germany.
6.4.6
Market and tariff impact on consumers of the different alternatives
The different expansion alternatives do not only have consequences for the physical possibilities of supplying gas to Danish and Swedish consumers, but also impact on the tariffs in Denmark and competition in the Danish/Swedish gas market. All other things being equal, a reduction in gas supplies, including abolition of transit from Denmark to Germany will mean that transport costs will increase since the same expenses must be distributed on fewer m3 of gas. Today, all gas for the Danish and Swedish markets and parts of the German market is supplied from the Danish part of the North Sea. Via the Nogat pipeline from the Tyra platform to the Netherlands, supplies to the Danish market compete with supplies to the Central European market. Moreover, in commercial terms gas can be supplied via Ellund, thus contributing to the competition in the Danish market. Under the expansion alternatives, prices in Denmark will to a greater extent reflect the Central European gas market.
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7. Distribution 7.1
Capacity and off-take
Supplies to the individual M/R station in the transmission system must be maintained, and supplies to the individual consumers must be maintained in normal situations as well as in emergency situations with very low daily mean temperatures. This is ensured by analysing the systems and assessing natural gas off-take from each M/R station. Due to the variation in natural gas consumption during the day, the transmission system is analysed by means of dynamic calculations over several days. The distribution systems are only analysed by means of static calculations of the situation in connection with consumption during the hour of maximum consumption.
7.1.1
M/R stations
Each year, Energinet.dk assesses whether the individual M/R stations are capable of observing the supply requirement based on historical data and an assessment of expected maximum off-take at the daily design temperature. The possible supply via an M/R station depends on inlet pressure and outlet pressure from the station. Outlet pressure is determined by the regional companies, whereas the specific inlet pressure is determined by the current load situation. Energinet.dk makes a socalled base case calculation annually, stating the expectations for the maximum grid load during the coming winter. For the winter 2008/2009, the capacity of the individual M/R stations has been calculated on the basis of the calculated minimum pressure based on off-take at a daily mean temperature of -13° C. Note that capacities are stated for the set points shown in Table 16 and that outlet pressure in certain cases may be lower. Capacities are stated in Table 16, in which the presumed off-takes during the maximum day and maximum hour are shown. Total off-take as a function of the daily mean temperature is illustrated in Figure 18.
Figure 18 Relationship between daily mean temperature and total natural gas off-take in Denmark.
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M/R station
Amager Fælled Billesbølle Brande Brøndby
Expected off-take during maximum day (-13° C) 1,000 Nm3/d
Expected off-take during maximum hour (-13° C) Nm3/h
Calculated inlet pressure
Agreed set point
M/R station. Calculated capacity
Expected capacity requirements of distribution companies Nm3/h
Metered data 30.03.200730.03.2008
Bar
Bar
Nm3/h
55
3,674
56.0
14.6
15,605
101
4,751
64.5
14.7
7,419
4,763
79
3,598
68.4
35.4
9,922
12,000
5,169
1,602
69,343
57.0
33.9
102,217
102,000
70,794
Nm3/h
9,818 4,750
Dragør
202
8,834
56.5
16.6
11,705
12,000
8,472
Egtved
1,049
45,437
68.3
34.4
73,810
59,400
45,785
Ellidshøj
200
8,505
67.0
35.4
25,647
26,000
9,038
Frøslev
747
31,560
58.0
50.0
39,960
41,200
30,091
Haverslev
356
16,190
68.7
35.4
25,647
26,000
14,716
13
614
70.2
30.4
9,864
600
651
1,985
84,850
68.4
47.6
127,524
140,000
88,783
Højby
532
25,187
62.5
16.7
79,847
27,592
27,682
Karlslunde
454
22,391
58.1
17.9
77,667
80,000
27,454
Karup
274
11,776
69.0
35.4
25,647
26,000
14,391
Helle Herning
Koelbjerg
624
27,705
64.1
16.7
31,939
26,433
32,030
Køge
821
35,964
58.3
17.9
40,086
40,000
31,064
0
0
66.9
0.0
4,413
2,500
2,225
443
20,855
64.2
30.4
42,564
30,300
22,043
68
2,851
71.6
35.4
9,045
10,000
2,854
1,779
74,111
54.1
32.7
111,155
106,000
61,598
Lilballe Lille Selskær Lille Torup Lynge Middelfart Måløv
63
2,915
65.7
14.7
7,419
2,728
2,726
1,822
76,940
54.6
17.9
106,000
106,000
55,947
Nyborg
46
2,112
61.5
14.7
9,375
2,095
2,105
Nybro
52
2,405
71.6
34.4
6,784
3,200
2,651
Nørskov
321
14,262
68.3
30.4
27,692
21,800
16,986
Pottehuse
197
10,001
66.1
30.4
32,716
12,400
9,049
Ringsted
639
31,166
59.1
22.0
40,422
39,000
26,042
Slagelse
271
12,176
60.8
16.3
31,067
16,400
12,286
0
0
60.0
16.3
40,800
0
17,923
Stenlille
605
26,127
62.0
16.7
48,720
38,400
24,932
St. Andst
352
16,490
66.8
34.4
43,656
25,500
16,521
Sydhavnen
23
1,094
55.8
0.0
11,755
Taulov
70
3,746
66.2
30.4
27,692
7,100
5,328
Terkelsbøl
344
16,080
59.9
30.4
21,919
21,300
15,615
Torslunde
192
8,335
57.9
17.9
31,067
32,000
13,337
Ullerslev
179
8,062
62.0
14.7
12,056
6,934
6,903
Vallensbæk
287
14,159
57.2
17.9
31,067
32,000
21,092
Sorø
Varde
1,463
197
10,849
70.8
30.4
42,604
21,100
18,097
Viborg
1,725
74,847
69.9
35.3
141,127
124,000
74,626
Ålborg
1,639
72,830
65.6
44.3
126,024
116,000
73,027
Table 16 Expected off-take and calculated inlet and outlet pressure and capacities for M/R stations in the transmission system in normal supply situations at a daily mean temperature of -13° C. Capacity requirements of distribution companies at -13° C are also shown.
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7.1.2
Design of distribution grid
Cooperation between Energinet.dk and the distribution companies in connection with the preparation of the plan for security of natural gas supply has primarily concerned analyses of the relationship between temperature and natural gas consumption under each M/R station in the transmission system. The purpose has been to uncover any bottlenecks in the system. When assessing consumption at very low daily mean temperatures, it is important to consider the simultaneity of various types of consumption to maintain a realistic capacity requirement of the M/R stations. The assessment of off-take at very low temperatures is made difficult since no relevant metered data are available for daily mean temperatures lower than approx. -7° C. Ring connections also make the assessment of the individual M/R station difficult.
7.2
Special supply security matters in the individual distribution areas
7.2.1
Naturgas Fyn Distribution
The M/R stations of the transmission system supplying Naturgas Fyn Distribution A/S are assumed to have sufficient short-term and long-term capacity. Naturgas Fyn assesses that natural gas consumption will drop in the coming years.
7.2.2
DONG Gas Distribution
The M/R stations of the transmission system supplying DONG Energy Distribution are assessed to have sufficient capacity for the coming winter of 2008/2009. Note that for subsequent periods, no assessment is available as to how a change in gas quality will affect capacity requirements, just as possible new supplies that may engender specific expansion requirements and/or changed capacity requirements have also been left out of the assessment.
7.2.3
HNG Distribution and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution
7.2.3.1 General aspects According to HNG Distribution/Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution, the requirements in the Danish Energy Agency’s Executive Order no. 884 on security of supply, combined with the emergency supply concept applied, entail that supplies would have to be maintained for all gas consumers in the relevant licence areas regardless of whether natural gas supplies are interrupted entirely or partially. Since HNG Distribution and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution only receive natural gas from Energinet.dk’s grid, and since HNG Distribution and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution do not have stored natural gas at their disposal, maintaining supplies to all consumers in HNG Distribution’s and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s distribution areas is conditional on:
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-
The capacity Energinet.dk makes available to HNG Distribution and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution at Energinet.dk’s M/R stations
-
The capacity of HNG Distribution’s and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s supply systems.
The assessment of capacity in HNG Distribution’s and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s supply systems is based on Energinet.dk’s M/R stations having the capacity to supply the pressure and gas volumes stated below. Particularly in HNG Distribution’s case, the assessments consider that the M/R stations must have the necessary capacity to supply consumers in both HNG Distribution’s distribution area and the parts of DONG Gas Distribution’s distribution area supplied via HNG Distribution’s distribution grid. M/R station Brøndby Dragør Karlslunde Køge Lynge Måløv Torslunde Vallensbæk
Supply pressure (baro) 33.9 16.6 17.9 17.9 32.7 17.9 17.9 17.9
Capacity (Nm3/h) 102,000 12,000 80,000 40,000 106,000 106,000 32,000 32,000
Table 17 HNG Distribution.
M/R station
Supply pressure (baro)
Brande Ellidshøj Haverslev Herning Karup Lille Torup Viborg Aalborg
35.4 35.4 35.4 47.6 35.4 35.4 35.3 44.3
Capacity (Nm3/h) 12,000 26,000 26,000 140,000 26,000 10,000 124,000 116,000
Table 18 Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution.
7.2.3.2
Observance of security of supply requirements during the previous period Disregarding local pipeline disruptions in connection with damage of underground pipelines, for example, supply of natural gas was maintained in respect of all gas consumers in HNG Distribution’s and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s licence areas during the previous period. The security of supply requirements have thus been observed. 7.2.3.3 Observance of future security of supply requirements The assessments of whether the requirements of the executive order for supply security can be observed is made difficult by the missing empirical data on natural gas consumption at low temperatures.
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HNG Distribution and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution have therefore initiated analyses based on both HNG Distribution’s and Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s legal obligations to distribute natural gas to the gas consumers connected to the natural gas grids and on estimated consumption at -13° C. These analyses have yet to be completed. For instance, documentation on consumption patterns for peak and reserve load systems at temperatures of -13° C and during an emergency situation is outstanding. So is documentation on consumption patterns in the parts of DONG’s distribution areas supplied via HNG Distribution’s distribution grid. 7.2.3.3.1 HNG Distribution Based on the preliminary assessments, Energinet.dk and HNG Distribution assess consumption for the winter 2008/2009 at -13° C differently. In HNG Distribution’s opinion, Energinet.dk operates with a too narrow margin for consumption at falling temperatures. HNG Distribution assesses that for the winter 2008/2009, two of Energinet.dk’s M/R stations will have insufficient capacity to allow HNG Distribution to meet its legal obligations at temperatures of -13° C. This primarily concerns the M/R station at Brøndby and secondarily the M/R Station at Køge. A considerable share of the sale from Køge M/R station constitutes HNG Distribution’s obligation to supply natural gas to DONG’s distribution grid at Hårlev (a transition point between HNG Distribution’s and DONG’s distribution grids). Together with sales in HNG’s supply area, this obligation entails a risk that capacity at Køge M/R station becomes critical for the winter 2008/2009. Part of the sales from the M/R station at Brøndby accounts for HNG Distribution’s obligations vis-à-vis DONG as concerns gas consumers who in DONG’s distribution area are connected to the Svanemølle pipeline. HNG Distribution assesses that this obligation means that capacity at Brøndby M/R station will be insufficient to allow HNG Distribution to make supplies at -13° C for the winter 2008/2009. It is somewhat uncertain whether HNG Distribution is capable of observing the security of supply requirements during the coming 10-year period. Elements of this uncertainty comprise the scope of the expansion of district heating in HNG Distribution’s previous distribution areas, realisation of the energy-saving potential, realisation of the remaining potential for natural gas expansion and not least consumption at -13° C at a number of peak and reserve load stations in the VEKS and CTR systems, particularly to the extent that Energinet.dk has concluded interruptibility agreements with central CHP plants in the metropolitan area. In cooperation with Energinet.dk, HNG Distribution will continuously analyse the trend in gas consumption with a view to ensuring that HNG Distribution is capable of maintaining supplies to relevant gas consumers.
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References
7.2.3.3.2 Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution expects to be able to observe the security of supply requirements in the coming year and in the coming 10-year period within the framework of Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s existing system and the capacities at Energinet.dk’s systems listed in Table 18. However, it is not yet clear to which extent Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution’s grid is capable of observing the requirements when the calorific value of natural gas is expected to drop by 10% in the coming years. The outcome may be that Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution concludes agreements with individual large-scale consumers on limiting off-take during peak load periods. In cooperation with Energinet.dk, Naturgas Midt-Nord Distribution will continuously analyse the trend in gas consumption with a view to ensuring that Naturgas MidtNord is capable of maintaining supplies to relevant gas consumers in case of total or partial interruption of natural gas supplies to the Danish natural gas market.
8. References 1. Projection of Denmark’s energy consumption and emission of greenhouse gases until 2025. Danish Energy Agency, July 2008. 2. Invitation of ideas and proposals, conversion of fuel firing at Avedøre Power Station, Miljøcenter Roskilde, September 2008. 3. Oil and Gas Production in Denmark 07. The Danish Energy Agency, June 2008. 4. Estimating the 20-year mean time event for the lowest 3-day average temperature. National figures and minimum/maximum values for five regions. DMI, 2006.
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