planning, monitoring & review of renewable energy projects
PLANNING, MONITORING & REVIEW OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS Quarterly Review Scotland December 2006 – February 2007 CONTRACT NUMBER: K/PL/000353/00/00 URN NUMBER: 07/474D
The DTI drives our ambition of ‘prosperity for all’ by working to create the best environment for business success in the UK. We help people and companies become more productive by promoting enterprise, innovation and creativity. We champion UK business at home and abroad. We invest heavily in world-class science and technology. We protect the rights of working people and consumers. And we stand up for fair and open markets in the UK, Europe and the world.
PLANNING, MONITORING & REVIEW OF ENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS: QUARTERLY REVIEW SCOTLAND CONTRACT NUMBER: K/PL/00353/00/00 URN NUMBER: 07/474D
Contractor Entec UK Limited (with Imass Limited) Prepared by Jenny Gascoigne Colin McAllister
The work described in this report was carried out under contract as part of the DTI Emerging Energy Technologies Programme, which is managed by AEA Energy & Environment. The views and judgements expressed in this report are those of the contractor and do not necessarily reflect those of the DTI or AEA Energy & Environment.
First published 2007 © Crown Copyright 2007
Third Party Disclaimer Any disclosure of this report to a third party is subject to this disclaimer. The report was prepared by Entec at the instruction of, and for use by, our client named on the front of the report. It does not in any way constitute advice to any third party who is able to access it by any means. Entec excludes to the fullest extent lawfully permitted all liability whatsoever for any loss or damage howsoever arising from reliance on the contents of this report. We do not however exclude our liability (if any) for personal injury or death resulting from our negligence, for fraud or any other matter in relation to which we cannot legally exclude liability.
Executive Summary During the quarter December 2006 - February 2007, the monitoring programme has identified that three new applications have been submitted, one application has been refused planning approval and one application has been upheld at appeal. The most significant individual project developments were the approval on appeal of Toddleburn onshore wind farm with an estimated installed capacity of 36MW and the refusal of the Invercassley onshore windfarm with an estimated installed capacity of 46MW. A total of 92 renewable energy projects are currently recorded in the monitoring programme as applications which have been submitted for determination (applications being considered) in Scotland. The estimated installed capacity of these projects is approximately 5,540MW. A total of 68 renewable energy projects in Scotland are currently recorded as having been granted planning approval but have not yet begun generating electricity. This equates to an estimated installed capacity of 1,773MW. Of the home nations, Scotland has the greatest operational renewable energy capacity of 1,362MW, closely followed by England with 1,333MW. Wales has an estimated installed capacity of 344MW and N Ireland 126MW. A substantial decrease in the number of planning applications submitted, approved and determined has been experienced in Scotland between 2005 and 2006, this is also reflected by a decrease in the installed capacity value of applications submitted. There is likely to be some lag in the database whereby some details regarding 2006 applications have not yet been received, however this is unlikely to account for the entire decline. The installed, operational, renewable energy capacity in Scotland has increased annually since the monitoring programme commenced in 1998 with the increase almost entirely due to Wind Onshore projects. Based on average UK load factors recorded 2000-2006, the current operational, installed capacity in Scotland should equate to approximately 3.7TWh electricity produced per annum. If all the projects which have been approved are built and commissioned, then the resulting installed capacity would increase to 3,135MW, and should equate to approximately 8.2TWh electricity produced per annum. Assuming the approval and refusal rates for each technology (by number of projects) continues at the same rates as experienced between Jan 2000 and Dec 2006, a further 4,340MW renewable energy capacity might be anticipated to be given planning consent. Assuming all these projects and all the existing approved projects are built and commissioned, the resulting installed renewable energy capacity in Scotland would be 7,475MW, and should equate to approximately 18.9TWh electricity produced per annum. December 2006 - February 2007
This prediction represents a 54% of the UK 2010 renewable energy target and a 1TWh increase on the prediction from the previous quarter.
December 2006 - February 2007
Contents 1. Introduction............................................................................................................1 2. Overview of Progress............................................................................................2 2.1 Headline figures December 2006 to February 2007................................................................................... 2 2.2 Planning......................................................................................................................................................... 3 2.3 Post Determination....................................................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Operational.................................................................................................................................................... 9
3. The UK Context....................................................................................................11 3.1 The UK Context........................................................................................................................................... 11
4. Key Issues Review.............................................................................................. 12 4.1 Progress to 2010 targets............................................................................................................................ 14
5. Summary and Conclusion.................................................................................. 16
Table 2.1 New Planning Applications submitted Dec - Feb as captured by the Monitoring Programme........................................ 2 Table 2.2 Planning Approvals determined Dec - Feb as captured by the Monitoring Programme................................................... Table 2.3 Planning Refusals determined Dec - Feb as captured by the Monitoring Programme................................................... 2 Table 2.4 Appeals Upheld determined Dec - Feb as captured by the Monitoring Programme....................................................... 2 Table 2.5 Appeal Dismissals determined Dec - Feb as captured by the Monitoring Programme..................................................... Figure 2.1 Applications under consideration by technology type (number of applications).............................................................3 Figure 2.2 Applications under consideration by technology type (installed capacity, MW)............................................................. 4 Figure 2.3 Status of all planning applications by technology type (installed capacity, MW)............................................................5 Figure 2.4 Approved but not operational projects by technology type (number of projects)........................................................... 6 Figure 2.5 Approved but not operational projects by technology type (Installed capacity, MW)..................................................... 7 Figure 2.6 Approved but not operational project status by technology type (installed capacity, MW)............................................ 8 Figure 2.7 Operational projects by technology band (number of projects)....................................................................................10 Figure 2.8 Operational projects by technology band (installed capacity, MW)..............................................................................10 Figure 3.1 Operational projects by technology type and country (installed capacity, MW)........................................................... 11 Figure 3.2 Status of all planning applications by region (number of projects)................................................................................... Figure 3.3 Status of all planning applications by region (installed capacity, MW)............................................................................. Figure 3.4 Operational renewable energy projects by technology and region (installed capacity, MW)........................................... Figure 4.1 Number of applications submitted, refused and approved since 1999........................................................................ 12 Figure 4.2 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) of operational schemes 1998 - May 2006........................................................... 13
December 2006 - February 2007
1. Introduction In March 2006, a collaboration of Entec UK Ltd (Entec) and Imass Ltd (Imass) was commissioned by AEA Energy and Environment (AEAE&E), on behalf of the Department of Trade and Industry, to monitor and review the progress of renewable energy projects through the Town and Country Planning system. The aim of the project is to collate and maintain a database of accurate information for every proposed renewable energy development, with a capacity greater than 10kW in the UK, and to provide analysis and interpretation of the data to establish any trends across each country and the UK. The project will identify trends or key planning issues associated with the determination and commissioning of renewable energy projects and will ultimately be used to help assess the UKs progress towards the 2010 renewable generation targets. The monitoring programme has now been running since 1999, and was previously undertaken by Land Use Consultants. Until the end of December 2002, the research was undertaken by contacting a sample of local authorities and developers that were involved in determining or promoting renewable energy applications in the UK. Since January 2003, the programme was extended so that as far as possible, all local authorities are contacted once every quarter along with a minimum of 50 renewable energy developers. Since summer 2006, the data has been made available via a GIS based web portal (maps.restats.org.uk) that provides easy access to the data in a format that can be interrogated by a wide audience. The results are reported monthly in database updates which are held by AEAE&E. A summary of the results is also incorporated in four quarterly reports covering England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This report provides a quarterly progress review based on planning updates of renewable energy projects in Scotland for the period December 2006 to February 2007. The information provided in this report is based solely on the information held in the programme monitoring database. Whilst the project contributors have made every effort to ensure this database is accurate and up to date, they do not accept responsibility for any inaccuracies in the data, which is ultimately derived from third-party sources.
December 2006 - February 2007
1
2. Overview of Progress 2.1 Headline figures December 2006 to February 2007 The monitoring programme has identified that 3 planning applications have been submitted in Scotland during the period. The details of these schemes are as follows: Table 2.1
New Planning Applications submitted December 2006-February 2007 as captured by the Monitoring Programme
Site Name
Technology
Burn of Whilk
Wind Onshore
Estimated Installed Capacity (MW)
Location
20
Highland
Beinn Tharsuinn Extension
Wind Onshore
4.6
Highland
Barnbackle Windfarm
Wind Onshore
5.0
Dumfries and Galloway
The monitoring programme has identified that no planning applications in Scotland were approved during the period. The monitoring programme has identified that 1 planning application in Scotland was refused during the period. The details of this scheme is as follows: Table 2.3
Planning Refusals determined December 2006-February 2007 as captured by the Monitoring Programme
Site Name
Technology
Invercassley Windfarm
Wind Onshore
Estimated Installed Capacity (MW)
46
Location
Highland
The monitoring programme has identified that 1 planning appeal in Scotland was allowed during the period. The details of this scheme is as follows: Table 2.4
Allowed Appeals determined December 2006-February 2007 as captured by the Monitoring Programme
Site Name
Technology
Toddleburn
Wind Onshore
Estimated Installed Capacity (MW)
36
Location
Scottish Borders
The monitoring programme has identified that no planning appeals in Scotland were dismissed during the period.
December 2006 - February 2007
2
The most significant event during the quarter was the approval on appeal of Toddelburn onshore wind farm with an estimated installed capacity of 36MW. Also of significance was the refusal of the Invercassley (onshore) Windfarm by Highland Council after initially being approved by its planning committee (and reported as approved in the previous quarterly report). The developer (Airtricity) lodged an appeal with the Scottish Executive in February 2007. The Lewis (onshore) Wind Power proposal, consisting of 183 turbines with an estimated installed capacity of 652MW, received the conditional support of the Western Isles Council for its application to the Scottish Executive under Section 36 of the Electricity Act. ScottishPower have announced a £10m wave power project in Orkney in what will be the world's biggest commercial wave farm. The project will utilise 160-metre Pelamis (Sea Snake) machines and provide around 3MW of capacity when operational in 2008. At the end of February 2007, 122 projects have been identified through the monitoring programme as operational renewable energy projects in Scotland. The total installed capacity of these projects is estimated as 1360MW.
2.2 Planning This section provides a breakdown of the number and installed generation capacity of schemes (by technology type) that are in the planning system, and their current status. A total of 92 renewable energy projects are currently recorded in the monitoring programme as applications which have been submitted for determination (applications being considered) in Scotland. The estimated installed capacity of these projects is approximately 5540MW. The pie charts below illustrate a breakdown of these applications by technology type. Figure 2.1 provides a breakdown by number of projects, and Figure 2.2 provides a breakdown by installed capacity. Figure 2.1
Applications under consideration by technology type (number of applications)
December 2006 - February 2007
3
Figure 2.2
Applications under consideration by technology type (installed capacity, MW)
The largest number of applications currently submitted in the planning system is for Wind Onshore projects (83 applications). The greatest potential, in terms of installed capacity, is offered by Wind Onshore (5439MW). Renewable energy technologies other then Wind Onshore make up less than 2% in terms of the overall installed capacity of applications currently being considered in the planning process. It should be noted, that installed capacity values should be viewed with some caution, as installed capacity of wind projects, onshore and offshore, would be expected to offer a lower generation output relative to the other technologies presented. Figure 2.3 provides a breakdown of the status of all planning applications recorded in the monitoring programme by technology type. The bar chart shows combined installed capacities (MW).
December 2006 - February 2007
4
Figure 2.3
.
Figure 2.3a
.
Status of all planning applications by technology type (installed capacity, MW)
Biomass
Hydro
Landfill Gas
Municipal and Industrial Waste
Wave
Wind Offshore Wind Onshore
Status of all planning applications by technology type (installed capacity, MW). Wind Onshore not shown.
Biomass
Hydro
Landfill Gas
Municipal and Industrial Waste
Wave
Wind Offshore
December 2006 - February 2007
5
Figure 2.3 shows the dominance of Wind Onshore in Scotland both in terms of planning applications currently under consideration (98% of applications in terms of installed capacity) and in terms of approved (84% in terms of installed capacity) and refused (98% of refusals in terms of installed capacity) applications.
2.3 Post Determination This section provides a breakdown of the number and installed generation capacity of schemes (by technology type) that have been granted planning approval but have not yet become operational. A total of 68 renewable energy projects in Scotland are currently recorded as having been granted planning approval but have not yet begun generating electricity. This equates to an estimated installed capacity of 1773MW. The pie charts below show a breakdown of these projects by technology type. Figure 2.4 provides a breakdown by number of projects, and Figure 2.5 provides a breakdown by installed capacity. Figure 2.4
Approved but not operational projects by technology type (number of projects)
December 2006 - February 2007
6
Figure 2.5
Approved but not operational projects by technology type (installed capacity, MW)
Wind Onshore continues to be the technology with the most approved but not operational projects, with 48 projects (71% of all approved non-operational projects) totalling an installed capacity of 1411MW (80% of all approved non-operational installed capacity). 322MW of this capacity is attributable to a single wind farm that is currently undergoing construction: Whitelee Forest wind farm in East Ayrshire. The developers behind the project, Scottish Power have awarded £330m in contracts for wind turbines and civil engineering work. It expects the first turbines to arrive in October 2007 and the site to be fully commissioned in summer 2009 . The only other significant technologies in terms of approved non-operational installed capacity are Hydro (6% of total installed capacity) and Wind Offshore (11%). Figure 2.6 below shows a breakdown of the status of approved projects by technology type. The chart shows combined installed capacities (MW).
December 2006 - February 2007
7
Figure 2.6
.
Approved but not operational project status by technology type (installed capacity, MW)
Biomass
Hydro
Landfill Gas
Municipal and Industrial Waste
Wind Offshore
Wind Onshore
According to the data held in the monitoring programme just under half of all approved but not yet operational projects have commenced construction. There has been a decrease in terms of the amount of approved but not operational projects in Scotland since the last quarter from 1861MW to 1776MW principally due to the commissioning of 72MW of Wind Onshore projects (i.e. they are now operational). However this information should be viewed with some caution, as it is often difficult to obtain project information following planning approval but prior to electrical commissioning. Of the projects identified as having approval but not becoming operational, 33 (606MW installed capacity) have had planning approval for over two years. This demonstrates that the development of renewable energy projects in Scotland is not solely dependant on the planning system. An increase in the rate at which renewable energy projects are constructed and commissioned would contribute greatly to Scotland's renewable electricity generation. Wind Onshore accounts for 97% of the installed capacity awaiting construction, and almost 80% of the potential installed capacity of projects with approval but which are not yet operational. According to the report 'Barrier to commissioning renewable energy projects report' (Land Use Consultants, November 2005), the key causes of delay for Wind Onshore projects following approval were: •
Negotiation of connection and Wayleave agreements with landowners; December 2006 - February 2007
8
• •
Delays due to contract negotiations with suppliers (with procurement times for wind turbines in the order of 9-12 months being not uncommon); Negotiating planning agreements and discharging planning conditions.
With regards to Wind Offshore projects, the keys causes of delay are influenced by more technical and financial considerations: •
• • •
Lengthy negotiations with banks, suppliers and PPA providers in order to ensure schemes remain profitable, this is driven by marginal economics which are reportedly worsening as suppliers react to technical difficulties experienced during the commissioning of early schemes; Lack of construction capacity and turbine availability; Technical problems and delays incurred due to the licensing conditions (notably conditions imposed under the Food and Environmental Protection Act, are cited); Difficulties negotiating on shore grid connection routes.
According to the Land Use report, in November 2005 the average time taken for an onshore wind project to become operational following consent in Scotland (considering schemes approved since August 2000) was 21 months. Based on the data held in the planning database, during the period August 2000 to February 2007, the average time for an onshore wind project to reach commissioning has decreased to approximately 20 months (the average time to commissioning has remained the same as during the previous quarter). There are still no offshore wind farms commissioned in Scotland. Of those with planning approval, the Beatrice demonstration project has erected the first of two turbines with the second delayed due to poor weather in September 2006. Construction now awaits the return of the Rambiz (ocean going heavy lift catamaran). Early construction works of the Robin Rigg (A and B) offshore wind farm has also got underway.
2.4 Operational This section provides a breakdown of the number and installed generation capacity of renewable energy schemes (by technology type) that are operational in Scotland. A total of 122 projects have been identified through the monitoring programme as operational renewable energy projects in Scotland. The total installed capacity of these projects is estimated as 1360MW. The pie charts below show a breakdown of these projects by technology type. Figure 2.7 provides a breakdown by number of projects, and Figure 2.8 provides a breakdown by installed capacity.
December 2006 - February 2007
9
Figure 2.7
Operational projects by technology band (number of projects)
Figure 2.8
Operational projects by technology band (installed capacity, MW)
Two projects have become operational since the last quarter: one Biomass and one Wind Onshore. The Westray Biogas (Biomass) Project on Orkney (operational capacity of 0.01MW) commenced generation in November 2006. The project consists of an anaerobic digestion plant that extracts biogas from cow slurry and grass silage. The Braes of Doune Wind Farm near Stirling has an estimated nominal capacity of 72MW. Its commissioning in February 2007 takes the installed capacity of operational wind projects in Scotland to over 1 gigawatt (1000MW). However, it should be noted (as previously) that installed capacity values should be viewed with caution; if the declared net capacity (DNC) were used, the relative contribution of wind would be reduced compared to the thermal and hydro technologies. Projects which reach the end of their operational life will be removed from the monitoring database on notification of decommissioning (or re-powering). December 2006 - February 2007
10
3. The UK Context 3.1 The UK Context This section provides a brief comparison of the renewable operating capacity across the UK. Figure 3.1 provides a comparison of the operational renewable energy projects in the UK by technology type and country. Figure 3.1
.
Operational projects by technology type and country (installed capacity, MW)
England
Northern Ireland
Scotland
Wales
Scotland has the greatest operational renewable energy capacity (1362MW) and Northern Ireland has the least (126MW). Renewable energy generation is dominated by onshore wind projects in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. In England the main contribution of renewable energy capacity is landfill gas. In contrast to the previous quarter, this quarter has seen the operational capacity of renewable energy projects in Scotland exceed that in England.
December 2006 - February 2007
11
4. Key Issues Review This section provides a review of the progress of renewable technologies through the planning system. Data is provided for the number of planning applications submitted and determined each year since the programme commenced in 1999. The cumulative installed capacity of all schemes becoming operational in a particular year is also considered. The information presented has been collected from the commencement of the monitoring programme in 1999. Information provided for the current year includes all data collected to the end of this quarter (end of February 2007). Figure 4.1 provides a yearly breakdown of the number of planning applications submitted and determined (approved or refused). Note that the date of submission and determination was not recorded for all applications (prior to 2006), therefore some projects could not be included in the figure below. Figure 4.1
.
Number of applications submitted, refused and approved since 1999
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Between 1999 and 2005 the number of applications submitted, approved and refused has generally been rising with 5 submissions in 1999 and 50 in 2005. 2006 saw a significant fall in the number of planning applications submitted (2005: 50 applications v 2006: 28 applications), refused (9 applications v 4 applications) and approved (28 applications v 12 applications): falls of 44%, 56% and 57% respectively. This fall in the number of submissions can also be seen in England and Wales (though not N Ireland) in 2006, although the decrease December 2006 - February 2007
12
is more significant in Scotland. The installed capacity of planning applications in Scotland has also declined between 2005 and 2006 with respect to submitted (1889MW v 845MW), approved (801MW v 478MW) and refused (237 v 114MW) applications. There could be some lag in the database and some details regarding 2006 applications have not yet been received, however this is unlikely to account for the entire decline. The submitted applications in 2004 were for a particularly large installed capacity (3514MW) which still does not appear to have worked its way through the planning system; the total combined determinations for 2005 and 2006 is only 1630MW and this does not account for the additional applications submitted during 2005 and 2006. This can be attributed almost entirely to Wind Onshore projects submitted in 2004, with 12 applications of over 100MW, none of which have yet been determined. Of the 24 planning applications refused between January 2000 and February 2007, 22 were for Wind Onshore, 2 were for Hydro and one was for Municipal and Industrial Waste with Wind Onshore comprising 97% of the installed capacity for refusals. Figure 4.2 is a cumulative histogram illustrating the installed capacity of renewable energy projects becoming operational each year from 1999 - February 2007. The data is broken down into the contribution made by each technology. Figure 4.2
.
Cumulative installed capacity (MW) of operational schemes 1998 May 2006
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Note that the discrepancy between the cumulative total of 1335MW and the actual total of all operational projects in Scotland (1363MW) exists because the date of first generation is not known for some operational projects. Nevertheless the trend is assumed to remain the same. December 2006 - February 2007
13
The installed capacities of Biomass (10MW), Wave (0.6MW) and Municipal and Industrial Waste (15MW) have remained static since 2000. During the same period there have been small increases in Hydro (208MW to 227MW) and Landfill Gas (10MW to 43MW), and a large increase in Wind Onshore (108MW to 1039MW).
4.1 Progress to 2010 targets The aim of the Renewables Obligation is to increase the contribution of electricity from renewables in the UK so that by 2010, 10% of licensed UK electricity sales should be from renewable sources eligible for the RO, and by 2020 20% should be eligible. Throughout this report, the installed capacity of renewable energy projects and planning applications is considered. However, in order to compare the schemes recorded in the 'Planning, Monitoring and Review of Renewable Energy projects' database with the UK targets, the likely contribution (in terms of actual electricity generated) must be considered. The electricity generated (or potential electricity generated) has been calculated based on the average UK load factors recorded between 2000 and 2005 for each technology[1] (for onshore wind the 'load factor' on an unchanged configuration basis has been used). For offshore wind, data was only available for 2004 and 2005. Based on these load factors, the current operational, installed capacity in Scotland should equate to approximately 3.7TWh electricity produced per annum. The fact that the installed capacity in England is very similar to that in Scotland and yet the predicted electricity output is significantly higher for England 5.6TWh is a reflection of the renewable technology matrix; with England being dominated by Landfill Gas schemes. If all the projects which have been approved are built and commissioned, then the resulting installed capacity would increase to 3,135MW, and should equate to approximately 8.2TWh electricity produced per annum. Assuming the approval and refusal rates for each technology (by number of projects) continues at the same rates as experienced between Jan 2000 and Dec 2006 (see Figure 4.1 above), a further 4,340MW renewable energy capacity might be anticipated to be given planning consent. Note that this methodology assumes that a larger project (in terms of installed capacity) is no more or less likely to achieve planning consent than a smaller one. It is also worth highlighting that application refusal rates for Wind Onshore in Scotland were very low up to 2003, with the increase in number of applications since that time, it could be speculated that refusal rates will continue to increase, as has occurred in 2004 and 2005, indeed refusal rates have increased since the last quarter. Nevertheless assuming all these projects and all the existing approved projects are built and commissioned, the resulting installed renewable energy capacity in Scotland would be 7,475MW, and should equate to approximately 18.9TWh electricity produced per annum. This prediction represents a 1TWh increase on the prediction from the previous quarter. The total UK electricity demand in 2010 has been derived from the DTIs latest projections (UK Energy and CO2 Emissions Projections, July 2006). Assuming growth in electricity demand follows the baseline electricity demand growth model (the 'middle ground' predictions), the UK is anticipated to have a total electricity demand of 29.7Mtoe by 2010. This equates to 352TWh electricity supplied per annum. According to the Renewable December 2006 - February 2007
14
Obligation targets, 35.2TWh will need to be generated from renewable energy schemes by 2010. Clearly 19TWh renewable electricity generation, provided within Scotland would go a long way to help meet this overall UK target. Of the four UK countries, based on the historical data, Scotland appears to be the most likely to commission this 'theoretical' renewable electricity generation capacity within the next three years. This is because more than 70% of the electricity generated would be produced from Wind Onshore projects, and since 2000, the average time from planning submission to commissioning for an onshore wind project in Scotland has been just under 3 years.
1
Table 7.4 Capacity of, and electricity generated from renewable sources (www.dtistats.net/energystats/dukes7_4.xls)
December 2006 - February 2007
15
5. Conclusion During the quarter December 2006 - February 2007, the monitoring programme has identified that three new applications have been submitted, one application has been refused planning approval and one application has been upheld at appeal. The most significant individual project developments were the approval on appeal of Toddleburn onshore wind farm with an estimated installed capacity of 36MW and the refusal of the Invercassley onshore windfarm with an estimated installed capacity of 46MW. A total of 92 renewable energy projects are currently recorded in the monitoring programme as applications which have been submitted for determination (applications being considered) in Scotland. The estimated installed capacity of these projects is approximately 5,540MW. A total of 68 renewable energy projects in Scotland are currently recorded as having been granted planning approval but have not yet begun generating electricity. This equates to an estimated installed capacity of 1,773MW. Of the home nations, Scotland has the greatest operational renewable energy capacity of 1,362MW, closely followed by England with 1,333MW. Wales has an estimated installed capacity of 344MW and N Ireland 126MW. A substantial decrease in the number of planning applications submitted, approved and determined has been experienced in Scotland between 2005 and 2006, this is also reflected by a decrease in the installed capacity value of applications submitted. There is likely to be some lag in the database whereby some details regarding 2006 applications have not yet been received, however this is unlikely to account for the entire decline. The installed, operational, renewable energy capacity in Scotland has increased annually since the monitoring programme commenced in 1998 with the increase almost entirely due to Wind Onshore projects. Based on average UK load factors recorded 2000-2006, the current operational, installed capacity in Scotland should equate to approximately 3.7TWh electricity produced per annum. If all the projects which have been approved are built and commissioned, then the resulting installed capacity would increase to 3,135MW, and should equate to approximately 8.2TWh electricity produced per annum. Assuming the approval and refusal rates for each technology (by number of projects) continues at the same rates as experienced between Jan 2000 and Dec 2006, a further 4,340MW renewable energy capacity might be anticipated to be given planning consent. Assuming all these projects and all the existing approved projects are built and commissioned, the resulting installed renewable energy capacity in Scotland would be 7,475MW, and should equate to approximately 18.9TWh electricity produced per annum. This prediction represents a 54% of the UK 2010 renewable energy target and a 1TWh increase on the prediction from the previous quarter.
December 2006 - February 2007
16
The DTI drives our ambition of ‘prosperity for all’ by working to create the best environment for business success in the UK. We help people and companies become more productive by promoting enterprise, innovation and creativity. We champion UK business at home and abroad. We invest heavily in world-class science and technology. We protect the rights of working people and consumers. And we stand up for fair and open markets in the UK, Europe and the world.
PLANNING, MONITORING & REVIEW OF ENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS: QUARTERLY REVIEW SCOTLAND CONTRACT NUMBER: K/PL/00353/00/00 URN NUMBER: 07/474D
Contractor Entec UK Limited (with Imass Limited) Prepared by Jenny Gascoigne Colin McAllister
The work described in this report was carried out under contract as part of the DTI Emerging Energy Technologies Programme, which is managed by AEA Energy & Environment. The views and judgements expressed in this report are those of the contractor and do not necessarily reflect those of the DTI or AEA Energy & Environment.
First published 2007 © Crown Copyright 2007
Third Party Disclaimer Any disclosure of this report to a third party is subject to this disclaimer. The report was prepared by Entec at the instruction of, and for use by, our client named on the front of the report. It does not in any way constitute advice to any third party who is able to access it by any means. Entec excludes to the fullest extent lawfully permitted all liability whatsoever for any loss or damage howsoever arising from reliance on the contents of this report. We do not however exclude our liability (if any) for personal injury or death resulting from our negligence, for fraud or any other matter in relation to which we cannot legally exclude liability.
Executive Summary During the quarter December 2006 - February 2007, the monitoring programme has identified that three new applications have been submitted, one application has been refused planning approval and one application has been upheld at appeal. The most significant individual project developments were the approval on appeal of Toddleburn onshore wind farm with an estimated installed capacity of 36MW and the refusal of the Invercassley onshore windfarm with an estimated installed capacity of 46MW. A total of 92 renewable energy projects are currently recorded in the monitoring programme as applications which have been submitted for determination (applications being considered) in Scotland. The estimated installed capacity of these projects is approximately 5,540MW. A total of 68 renewable energy projects in Scotland are currently recorded as having been granted planning approval but have not yet begun generating electricity. This equates to an estimated installed capacity of 1,773MW. Of the home nations, Scotland has the greatest operational renewable energy capacity of 1,362MW, closely followed by England with 1,333MW. Wales has an estimated installed capacity of 344MW and N Ireland 126MW. A substantial decrease in the number of planning applications submitted, approved and determined has been experienced in Scotland between 2005 and 2006, this is also reflected by a decrease in the installed capacity value of applications submitted. There is likely to be some lag in the database whereby some details regarding 2006 applications have not yet been received, however this is unlikely to account for the entire decline. The installed, operational, renewable energy capacity in Scotland has increased annually since the monitoring programme commenced in 1998 with the increase almost entirely due to Wind Onshore projects. Based on average UK load factors recorded 2000-2006, the current operational, installed capacity in Scotland should equate to approximately 3.7TWh electricity produced per annum. If all the projects which have been approved are built and commissioned, then the resulting installed capacity would increase to 3,135MW, and should equate to approximately 8.2TWh electricity produced per annum. Assuming the approval and refusal rates for each technology (by number of projects) continues at the same rates as experienced between Jan 2000 and Dec 2006, a further 4,340MW renewable energy capacity might be anticipated to be given planning consent. Assuming all these projects and all the existing approved projects are built and commissioned, the resulting installed renewable energy capacity in Scotland would be 7,475MW, and should equate to approximately 18.9TWh electricity produced per annum. December 2006 - February 2007
This prediction represents a 54% of the UK 2010 renewable energy target and a 1TWh increase on the prediction from the previous quarter.
December 2006 - February 2007
Contents 1. Introduction............................................................................................................1 2. Overview of Progress............................................................................................2 2.1 Headline figures December 2006 to February 2007................................................................................... 2 2.2 Planning......................................................................................................................................................... 3 2.3 Post Determination....................................................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Operational.................................................................................................................................................... 9
3. The UK Context....................................................................................................11 3.1 The UK Context........................................................................................................................................... 11
4. Key Issues Review.............................................................................................. 12 4.1 Progress to 2010 targets............................................................................................................................ 14
5. Summary and Conclusion.................................................................................. 16
Table 2.1 New Planning Applications submitted Dec - Feb as captured by the Monitoring Programme........................................ 2 Table 2.2 Planning Approvals determined Dec - Feb as captured by the Monitoring Programme................................................... Table 2.3 Planning Refusals determined Dec - Feb as captured by the Monitoring Programme................................................... 2 Table 2.4 Appeals Upheld determined Dec - Feb as captured by the Monitoring Programme....................................................... 2 Table 2.5 Appeal Dismissals determined Dec - Feb as captured by the Monitoring Programme..................................................... Figure 2.1 Applications under consideration by technology type (number of applications).............................................................3 Figure 2.2 Applications under consideration by technology type (installed capacity, MW)............................................................. 4 Figure 2.3 Status of all planning applications by technology type (installed capacity, MW)............................................................5 Figure 2.4 Approved but not operational projects by technology type (number of projects)........................................................... 6 Figure 2.5 Approved but not operational projects by technology type (Installed capacity, MW)..................................................... 7 Figure 2.6 Approved but not operational project status by technology type (installed capacity, MW)............................................ 8 Figure 2.7 Operational projects by technology band (number of projects)....................................................................................10 Figure 2.8 Operational projects by technology band (installed capacity, MW)..............................................................................10 Figure 3.1 Operational projects by technology type and country (installed capacity, MW)........................................................... 11 Figure 3.2 Status of all planning applications by region (number of projects)................................................................................... Figure 3.3 Status of all planning applications by region (installed capacity, MW)............................................................................. Figure 3.4 Operational renewable energy projects by technology and region (installed capacity, MW)........................................... Figure 4.1 Number of applications submitted, refused and approved since 1999........................................................................ 12 Figure 4.2 Cumulative installed capacity (MW) of operational schemes 1998 - May 2006........................................................... 13
December 2006 - February 2007
1. Introduction In March 2006, a collaboration of Entec UK Ltd (Entec) and Imass Ltd (Imass) was commissioned by AEA Energy and Environment (AEAE&E), on behalf of the Department of Trade and Industry, to monitor and review the progress of renewable energy projects through the Town and Country Planning system. The aim of the project is to collate and maintain a database of accurate information for every proposed renewable energy development, with a capacity greater than 10kW in the UK, and to provide analysis and interpretation of the data to establish any trends across each country and the UK. The project will identify trends or key planning issues associated with the determination and commissioning of renewable energy projects and will ultimately be used to help assess the UKs progress towards the 2010 renewable generation targets. The monitoring programme has now been running since 1999, and was previously undertaken by Land Use Consultants. Until the end of December 2002, the research was undertaken by contacting a sample of local authorities and developers that were involved in determining or promoting renewable energy applications in the UK. Since January 2003, the programme was extended so that as far as possible, all local authorities are contacted once every quarter along with a minimum of 50 renewable energy developers. Since summer 2006, the data has been made available via a GIS based web portal (maps.restats.org.uk) that provides easy access to the data in a format that can be interrogated by a wide audience. The results are reported monthly in database updates which are held by AEAE&E. A summary of the results is also incorporated in four quarterly reports covering England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This report provides a quarterly progress review based on planning updates of renewable energy projects in Scotland for the period December 2006 to February 2007. The information provided in this report is based solely on the information held in the programme monitoring database. Whilst the project contributors have made every effort to ensure this database is accurate and up to date, they do not accept responsibility for any inaccuracies in the data, which is ultimately derived from third-party sources.
December 2006 - February 2007
1
2. Overview of Progress 2.1 Headline figures December 2006 to February 2007 The monitoring programme has identified that 3 planning applications have been submitted in Scotland during the period. The details of these schemes are as follows: Table 2.1
New Planning Applications submitted December 2006-February 2007 as captured by the Monitoring Programme
Site Name
Technology
Burn of Whilk
Wind Onshore
Estimated Installed Capacity (MW)
Location
20
Highland
Beinn Tharsuinn Extension
Wind Onshore
4.6
Highland
Barnbackle Windfarm
Wind Onshore
5.0
Dumfries and Galloway
The monitoring programme has identified that no planning applications in Scotland were approved during the period. The monitoring programme has identified that 1 planning application in Scotland was refused during the period. The details of this scheme is as follows: Table 2.3
Planning Refusals determined December 2006-February 2007 as captured by the Monitoring Programme
Site Name
Technology
Invercassley Windfarm
Wind Onshore
Estimated Installed Capacity (MW)
46
Location
Highland
The monitoring programme has identified that 1 planning appeal in Scotland was allowed during the period. The details of this scheme is as follows: Table 2.4
Allowed Appeals determined December 2006-February 2007 as captured by the Monitoring Programme
Site Name
Technology
Toddleburn
Wind Onshore
Estimated Installed Capacity (MW)
36
Location
Scottish Borders
The monitoring programme has identified that no planning appeals in Scotland were dismissed during the period.
December 2006 - February 2007
2
The most significant event during the quarter was the approval on appeal of Toddelburn onshore wind farm with an estimated installed capacity of 36MW. Also of significance was the refusal of the Invercassley (onshore) Windfarm by Highland Council after initially being approved by its planning committee (and reported as approved in the previous quarterly report). The developer (Airtricity) lodged an appeal with the Scottish Executive in February 2007. The Lewis (onshore) Wind Power proposal, consisting of 183 turbines with an estimated installed capacity of 652MW, received the conditional support of the Western Isles Council for its application to the Scottish Executive under Section 36 of the Electricity Act. ScottishPower have announced a £10m wave power project in Orkney in what will be the world's biggest commercial wave farm. The project will utilise 160-metre Pelamis (Sea Snake) machines and provide around 3MW of capacity when operational in 2008. At the end of February 2007, 122 projects have been identified through the monitoring programme as operational renewable energy projects in Scotland. The total installed capacity of these projects is estimated as 1360MW.
2.2 Planning This section provides a breakdown of the number and installed generation capacity of schemes (by technology type) that are in the planning system, and their current status. A total of 92 renewable energy projects are currently recorded in the monitoring programme as applications which have been submitted for determination (applications being considered) in Scotland. The estimated installed capacity of these projects is approximately 5540MW. The pie charts below illustrate a breakdown of these applications by technology type. Figure 2.1 provides a breakdown by number of projects, and Figure 2.2 provides a breakdown by installed capacity. Figure 2.1
Applications under consideration by technology type (number of applications)
December 2006 - February 2007
3
Figure 2.2
Applications under consideration by technology type (installed capacity, MW)
The largest number of applications currently submitted in the planning system is for Wind Onshore projects (83 applications). The greatest potential, in terms of installed capacity, is offered by Wind Onshore (5439MW). Renewable energy technologies other then Wind Onshore make up less than 2% in terms of the overall installed capacity of applications currently being considered in the planning process. It should be noted, that installed capacity values should be viewed with some caution, as installed capacity of wind projects, onshore and offshore, would be expected to offer a lower generation output relative to the other technologies presented. Figure 2.3 provides a breakdown of the status of all planning applications recorded in the monitoring programme by technology type. The bar chart shows combined installed capacities (MW).
December 2006 - February 2007
4
Figure 2.3
.
Figure 2.3a
.
Status of all planning applications by technology type (installed capacity, MW)
Biomass
Hydro
Landfill Gas
Municipal and Industrial Waste
Wave
Wind Offshore Wind Onshore
Status of all planning applications by technology type (installed capacity, MW). Wind Onshore not shown.
Biomass
Hydro
Landfill Gas
Municipal and Industrial Waste
Wave
Wind Offshore
December 2006 - February 2007
5
Figure 2.3 shows the dominance of Wind Onshore in Scotland both in terms of planning applications currently under consideration (98% of applications in terms of installed capacity) and in terms of approved (84% in terms of installed capacity) and refused (98% of refusals in terms of installed capacity) applications.
2.3 Post Determination This section provides a breakdown of the number and installed generation capacity of schemes (by technology type) that have been granted planning approval but have not yet become operational. A total of 68 renewable energy projects in Scotland are currently recorded as having been granted planning approval but have not yet begun generating electricity. This equates to an estimated installed capacity of 1773MW. The pie charts below show a breakdown of these projects by technology type. Figure 2.4 provides a breakdown by number of projects, and Figure 2.5 provides a breakdown by installed capacity. Figure 2.4
Approved but not operational projects by technology type (number of projects)
December 2006 - February 2007
6
Figure 2.5
Approved but not operational projects by technology type (installed capacity, MW)
Wind Onshore continues to be the technology with the most approved but not operational projects, with 48 projects (71% of all approved non-operational projects) totalling an installed capacity of 1411MW (80% of all approved non-operational installed capacity). 322MW of this capacity is attributable to a single wind farm that is currently undergoing construction: Whitelee Forest wind farm in East Ayrshire. The developers behind the project, Scottish Power have awarded £330m in contracts for wind turbines and civil engineering work. It expects the first turbines to arrive in October 2007 and the site to be fully commissioned in summer 2009 . The only other significant technologies in terms of approved non-operational installed capacity are Hydro (6% of total installed capacity) and Wind Offshore (11%). Figure 2.6 below shows a breakdown of the status of approved projects by technology type. The chart shows combined installed capacities (MW).
December 2006 - February 2007
7
Figure 2.6
.
Approved but not operational project status by technology type (installed capacity, MW)
Biomass
Hydro
Landfill Gas
Municipal and Industrial Waste
Wind Offshore
Wind Onshore
According to the data held in the monitoring programme just under half of all approved but not yet operational projects have commenced construction. There has been a decrease in terms of the amount of approved but not operational projects in Scotland since the last quarter from 1861MW to 1776MW principally due to the commissioning of 72MW of Wind Onshore projects (i.e. they are now operational). However this information should be viewed with some caution, as it is often difficult to obtain project information following planning approval but prior to electrical commissioning. Of the projects identified as having approval but not becoming operational, 33 (606MW installed capacity) have had planning approval for over two years. This demonstrates that the development of renewable energy projects in Scotland is not solely dependant on the planning system. An increase in the rate at which renewable energy projects are constructed and commissioned would contribute greatly to Scotland's renewable electricity generation. Wind Onshore accounts for 97% of the installed capacity awaiting construction, and almost 80% of the potential installed capacity of projects with approval but which are not yet operational. According to the report 'Barrier to commissioning renewable energy projects report' (Land Use Consultants, November 2005), the key causes of delay for Wind Onshore projects following approval were: •
Negotiation of connection and Wayleave agreements with landowners; December 2006 - February 2007
8
• •
Delays due to contract negotiations with suppliers (with procurement times for wind turbines in the order of 9-12 months being not uncommon); Negotiating planning agreements and discharging planning conditions.
With regards to Wind Offshore projects, the keys causes of delay are influenced by more technical and financial considerations: •
• • •
Lengthy negotiations with banks, suppliers and PPA providers in order to ensure schemes remain profitable, this is driven by marginal economics which are reportedly worsening as suppliers react to technical difficulties experienced during the commissioning of early schemes; Lack of construction capacity and turbine availability; Technical problems and delays incurred due to the licensing conditions (notably conditions imposed under the Food and Environmental Protection Act, are cited); Difficulties negotiating on shore grid connection routes.
According to the Land Use report, in November 2005 the average time taken for an onshore wind project to become operational following consent in Scotland (considering schemes approved since August 2000) was 21 months. Based on the data held in the planning database, during the period August 2000 to February 2007, the average time for an onshore wind project to reach commissioning has decreased to approximately 20 months (the average time to commissioning has remained the same as during the previous quarter). There are still no offshore wind farms commissioned in Scotland. Of those with planning approval, the Beatrice demonstration project has erected the first of two turbines with the second delayed due to poor weather in September 2006. Construction now awaits the return of the Rambiz (ocean going heavy lift catamaran). Early construction works of the Robin Rigg (A and B) offshore wind farm has also got underway.
2.4 Operational This section provides a breakdown of the number and installed generation capacity of renewable energy schemes (by technology type) that are operational in Scotland. A total of 122 projects have been identified through the monitoring programme as operational renewable energy projects in Scotland. The total installed capacity of these projects is estimated as 1360MW. The pie charts below show a breakdown of these projects by technology type. Figure 2.7 provides a breakdown by number of projects, and Figure 2.8 provides a breakdown by installed capacity.
December 2006 - February 2007
9
Figure 2.7
Operational projects by technology band (number of projects)
Figure 2.8
Operational projects by technology band (installed capacity, MW)
Two projects have become operational since the last quarter: one Biomass and one Wind Onshore. The Westray Biogas (Biomass) Project on Orkney (operational capacity of 0.01MW) commenced generation in November 2006. The project consists of an anaerobic digestion plant that extracts biogas from cow slurry and grass silage. The Braes of Doune Wind Farm near Stirling has an estimated nominal capacity of 72MW. Its commissioning in February 2007 takes the installed capacity of operational wind projects in Scotland to over 1 gigawatt (1000MW). However, it should be noted (as previously) that installed capacity values should be viewed with caution; if the declared net capacity (DNC) were used, the relative contribution of wind would be reduced compared to the thermal and hydro technologies. Projects which reach the end of their operational life will be removed from the monitoring database on notification of decommissioning (or re-powering). December 2006 - February 2007
10
3. The UK Context 3.1 The UK Context This section provides a brief comparison of the renewable operating capacity across the UK. Figure 3.1 provides a comparison of the operational renewable energy projects in the UK by technology type and country. Figure 3.1
.
Operational projects by technology type and country (installed capacity, MW)
England
Northern Ireland
Scotland
Wales
Scotland has the greatest operational renewable energy capacity (1362MW) and Northern Ireland has the least (126MW). Renewable energy generation is dominated by onshore wind projects in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. In England the main contribution of renewable energy capacity is landfill gas. In contrast to the previous quarter, this quarter has seen the operational capacity of renewable energy projects in Scotland exceed that in England.
December 2006 - February 2007
11
4. Key Issues Review This section provides a review of the progress of renewable technologies through the planning system. Data is provided for the number of planning applications submitted and determined each year since the programme commenced in 1999. The cumulative installed capacity of all schemes becoming operational in a particular year is also considered. The information presented has been collected from the commencement of the monitoring programme in 1999. Information provided for the current year includes all data collected to the end of this quarter (end of February 2007). Figure 4.1 provides a yearly breakdown of the number of planning applications submitted and determined (approved or refused). Note that the date of submission and determination was not recorded for all applications (prior to 2006), therefore some projects could not be included in the figure below. Figure 4.1
.
Number of applications submitted, refused and approved since 1999
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Between 1999 and 2005 the number of applications submitted, approved and refused has generally been rising with 5 submissions in 1999 and 50 in 2005. 2006 saw a significant fall in the number of planning applications submitted (2005: 50 applications v 2006: 28 applications), refused (9 applications v 4 applications) and approved (28 applications v 12 applications): falls of 44%, 56% and 57% respectively. This fall in the number of submissions can also be seen in England and Wales (though not N Ireland) in 2006, although the decrease December 2006 - February 2007
12
is more significant in Scotland. The installed capacity of planning applications in Scotland has also declined between 2005 and 2006 with respect to submitted (1889MW v 845MW), approved (801MW v 478MW) and refused (237 v 114MW) applications. There could be some lag in the database and some details regarding 2006 applications have not yet been received, however this is unlikely to account for the entire decline. The submitted applications in 2004 were for a particularly large installed capacity (3514MW) which still does not appear to have worked its way through the planning system; the total combined determinations for 2005 and 2006 is only 1630MW and this does not account for the additional applications submitted during 2005 and 2006. This can be attributed almost entirely to Wind Onshore projects submitted in 2004, with 12 applications of over 100MW, none of which have yet been determined. Of the 24 planning applications refused between January 2000 and February 2007, 22 were for Wind Onshore, 2 were for Hydro and one was for Municipal and Industrial Waste with Wind Onshore comprising 97% of the installed capacity for refusals. Figure 4.2 is a cumulative histogram illustrating the installed capacity of renewable energy projects becoming operational each year from 1999 - February 2007. The data is broken down into the contribution made by each technology. Figure 4.2
.
Cumulative installed capacity (MW) of operational schemes 1998 May 2006
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Note that the discrepancy between the cumulative total of 1335MW and the actual total of all operational projects in Scotland (1363MW) exists because the date of first generation is not known for some operational projects. Nevertheless the trend is assumed to remain the same. December 2006 - February 2007
13
The installed capacities of Biomass (10MW), Wave (0.6MW) and Municipal and Industrial Waste (15MW) have remained static since 2000. During the same period there have been small increases in Hydro (208MW to 227MW) and Landfill Gas (10MW to 43MW), and a large increase in Wind Onshore (108MW to 1039MW).
4.1 Progress to 2010 targets The aim of the Renewables Obligation is to increase the contribution of electricity from renewables in the UK so that by 2010, 10% of licensed UK electricity sales should be from renewable sources eligible for the RO, and by 2020 20% should be eligible. Throughout this report, the installed capacity of renewable energy projects and planning applications is considered. However, in order to compare the schemes recorded in the 'Planning, Monitoring and Review of Renewable Energy projects' database with the UK targets, the likely contribution (in terms of actual electricity generated) must be considered. The electricity generated (or potential electricity generated) has been calculated based on the average UK load factors recorded between 2000 and 2005 for each technology[1] (for onshore wind the 'load factor' on an unchanged configuration basis has been used). For offshore wind, data was only available for 2004 and 2005. Based on these load factors, the current operational, installed capacity in Scotland should equate to approximately 3.7TWh electricity produced per annum. The fact that the installed capacity in England is very similar to that in Scotland and yet the predicted electricity output is significantly higher for England 5.6TWh is a reflection of the renewable technology matrix; with England being dominated by Landfill Gas schemes. If all the projects which have been approved are built and commissioned, then the resulting installed capacity would increase to 3,135MW, and should equate to approximately 8.2TWh electricity produced per annum. Assuming the approval and refusal rates for each technology (by number of projects) continues at the same rates as experienced between Jan 2000 and Dec 2006 (see Figure 4.1 above), a further 4,340MW renewable energy capacity might be anticipated to be given planning consent. Note that this methodology assumes that a larger project (in terms of installed capacity) is no more or less likely to achieve planning consent than a smaller one. It is also worth highlighting that application refusal rates for Wind Onshore in Scotland were very low up to 2003, with the increase in number of applications since that time, it could be speculated that refusal rates will continue to increase, as has occurred in 2004 and 2005, indeed refusal rates have increased since the last quarter. Nevertheless assuming all these projects and all the existing approved projects are built and commissioned, the resulting installed renewable energy capacity in Scotland would be 7,475MW, and should equate to approximately 18.9TWh electricity produced per annum. This prediction represents a 1TWh increase on the prediction from the previous quarter. The total UK electricity demand in 2010 has been derived from the DTIs latest projections (UK Energy and CO2 Emissions Projections, July 2006). Assuming growth in electricity demand follows the baseline electricity demand growth model (the 'middle ground' predictions), the UK is anticipated to have a total electricity demand of 29.7Mtoe by 2010. This equates to 352TWh electricity supplied per annum. According to the Renewable December 2006 - February 2007
14
Obligation targets, 35.2TWh will need to be generated from renewable energy schemes by 2010. Clearly 19TWh renewable electricity generation, provided within Scotland would go a long way to help meet this overall UK target. Of the four UK countries, based on the historical data, Scotland appears to be the most likely to commission this 'theoretical' renewable electricity generation capacity within the next three years. This is because more than 70% of the electricity generated would be produced from Wind Onshore projects, and since 2000, the average time from planning submission to commissioning for an onshore wind project in Scotland has been just under 3 years.
1
Table 7.4 Capacity of, and electricity generated from renewable sources (www.dtistats.net/energystats/dukes7_4.xls)
December 2006 - February 2007
15
5. Conclusion During the quarter December 2006 - February 2007, the monitoring programme has identified that three new applications have been submitted, one application has been refused planning approval and one application has been upheld at appeal. The most significant individual project developments were the approval on appeal of Toddleburn onshore wind farm with an estimated installed capacity of 36MW and the refusal of the Invercassley onshore windfarm with an estimated installed capacity of 46MW. A total of 92 renewable energy projects are currently recorded in the monitoring programme as applications which have been submitted for determination (applications being considered) in Scotland. The estimated installed capacity of these projects is approximately 5,540MW. A total of 68 renewable energy projects in Scotland are currently recorded as having been granted planning approval but have not yet begun generating electricity. This equates to an estimated installed capacity of 1,773MW. Of the home nations, Scotland has the greatest operational renewable energy capacity of 1,362MW, closely followed by England with 1,333MW. Wales has an estimated installed capacity of 344MW and N Ireland 126MW. A substantial decrease in the number of planning applications submitted, approved and determined has been experienced in Scotland between 2005 and 2006, this is also reflected by a decrease in the installed capacity value of applications submitted. There is likely to be some lag in the database whereby some details regarding 2006 applications have not yet been received, however this is unlikely to account for the entire decline. The installed, operational, renewable energy capacity in Scotland has increased annually since the monitoring programme commenced in 1998 with the increase almost entirely due to Wind Onshore projects. Based on average UK load factors recorded 2000-2006, the current operational, installed capacity in Scotland should equate to approximately 3.7TWh electricity produced per annum. If all the projects which have been approved are built and commissioned, then the resulting installed capacity would increase to 3,135MW, and should equate to approximately 8.2TWh electricity produced per annum. Assuming the approval and refusal rates for each technology (by number of projects) continues at the same rates as experienced between Jan 2000 and Dec 2006, a further 4,340MW renewable energy capacity might be anticipated to be given planning consent. Assuming all these projects and all the existing approved projects are built and commissioned, the resulting installed renewable energy capacity in Scotland would be 7,475MW, and should equate to approximately 18.9TWh electricity produced per annum. This prediction represents a 54% of the UK 2010 renewable energy target and a 1TWh increase on the prediction from the previous quarter.
December 2006 - February 2007
16
