Population & Demographic Profile Downtown Development Authority District and Adjacent Areas of Influence
Prepared for:
May 2010
A Professional Strategic Alliance
Lewis M. Goodkin, CRE,FRICS,MIRM
[email protected] 305.860.0771
Craig A. Werley, CRE
[email protected] 305.441-6438
TABLE OF CONTENTS I.
POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ....................................................................................................1 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 DOWNTOWN STUDY AREA POPULATION ........................................................................................................ 1 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS BY DISTRICT............................................................................................................... 2 DOWNTOWN STUDY AREA HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION ............................................................................. 4 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE AND SELECTED COMPARISONS ........................................................................... 6 Population Age Profile ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Employment Status & Profile ................................................................................................................................ 7 LIST OF EXHIBITS EXHIBIT I.1 POPULATION & HOUSEHOLD TRENDS/PROJECTIONS................................................................. 2 EXHIBIT I.2 POPULATION TREND/PROJECTION BY DISTRICT ......................................................................... 3 EXHIBIT I.3 CURRENT ESTIMATED POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT ........................................ 3 EXHIBIT I.4 HOUSEHOLDS - TREND/PROJECTION BY DISTRICT ..................................................................... 4 EXHIBIT I.5 UNIT MIX BY TYPE – RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY CHART .......................................................... 5 EXHIBIT I.6 PERSONAL INCOME TREND/PROJECTION COMPARISON ........................................................... 6 EXHIBIT I.7 POPULATION AGE PROFILE, TREND/PROJECTION, 1990 - 2014 .................................................. 7 EXHIBIT I.8 EMPLOYMENT STATUS AND PROFILE – CIVILIAN POPULATION ............................................ 8
Miami DDA - Population & Demographic Profile
STUDY AREA
Miami DDA - Population & Demographic Profile
I. POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE Goodkin Consulting in strategic alliance with Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC was retained by the City of Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA) to estimate current population and project future population as an adjunct to studies of the closing and occupancy status of recent/new condominium and multifamily projects in the Downtown Miami Study Area. A demographic profile of the downtown area population including household composition, employment status, age and income is presented in this report along with estimates and projections. METHODOLOGY Absorption and occupancy of existing and new housing units in the downtown study area form the basis for current population estimates and projections. Specific methodologies employed included: 1) calculation of the net increase in occupied housing units and composition of units by type and size from the date of the last decennial census in 2000 to the present, and 2) projection of population based on household composition corresponding to the unit mix of the existing and committed new residential units. Nationally recognized private third-party demographic data services including Claritas and ESRI were utilized as benchmark references both to affirm the reasonableness of estimates and projections and as best available source information for the demographic profile. DOWNTOWN STUDY AREA POPULATION The Downtown Study Area includes the Miami Downtown Development Authority District and adjacent areas of influence bounded by Interstate 195 (Julia Tuttle Causeway on the north, by I95 on the west, by SW 26 Road (Rickenbacker Causeway) on the south and by Biscayne Bay on the east. The study area encompasses all or part of eight zip code areas and twelve census tracts. Block level census data and estimates were utilized to define baseline housing inventory and demographic characteristics most accurately corresponding to the study area as defined. Population and household growth estimates and projections for the Downtown Miami Area are presented in Exhibit I.1. According to the last U.S. decennial census, the resident population in the downtown study area totaled 39,132 persons in 2000. Since the 2000 Census, total population in the Downtown Miami Area is estimated to have increased by nearly 32,000 persons based on the recently completed March 2010 update of the Residential Closings and Occupancy Study. The estimated number of households in the area more than doubled during the same period to an estimated current total of 34,700 households.
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Downtown Miami Area Population & Household Growth Population
Households
90,000
81,100 80,000
71,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000
40,300
39,132
34,700
30,000 20,000
17,299
10,000 0 2000 Census
2010 Estimate
2014 Projection
Source: U.S. Census; ESRI; Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC.
EXHIBIT I.1 POPULATION & HOUSEHOLD TRENDS/PROJECTIONS
The current downtown area population is estimated to total approximately 71,000 persons and is projected to increase to over 81,000 by 2014. Estimated population in 2010 and projected population in 2014 are based on the number and composition of housing units completed since 2000 as well as committed developments representing additional unit completions during the projection period. Estimates and projections may be conservative since no additions to housing inventory are assumed beyond the current committed pipeline of residential projects identified in the Residential Closings and Occupancy Study. Extensive production of housing in the downtown area since 2000 and current occupancy and absorption patterns indicate an average annual increase of about 1,740 households from 2000 to 2010, slowing moderately to an average annual gain of 1,400 per year during the next four years. POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS BY DISTRICT Population and household growth trends and projections by district within the Downtown Miami Area are shown in Exhibits I.2, I.3 and .4 on the following pages.
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Population Trend/Projection Downtown Miami Area by District AREA BRICKELL CBD PARK WEST MEDIA & ENT. WYNWD/EDGWTR TOTAL DOWNTOWN AREA
2000
2010
2014
Census 13,584 2,405 1,799 675 20,669 39,132
Estimate 28,500 8,900 4,000 2,800 26,800 71,000
Projection 33,500 11,400 5,200 3,300 27,700 81,100
Source: U.S. Cens us ; ESRI; Focus Rea l Es ta te Advi s ors , LLC.
EXHIBIT I.2 POPULATION TREND/PROJECTION BY DISTRICT
The current (2010) estimated population distribution by downtown area district illustrated below shows that the Brickell area accounts for approximately 28,500 persons or approximately 40% of the entire downtown area population.
BRICKELL 28,500 40%
MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT 2,800 4% WYNWOOD/ EDGEWATER 26,800 38%
PARK WEST 4,000 6% CBD 8,900 12%
EXHIBIT I.3 CURRENT ESTIMATED POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT
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Number of Households ‐ Trend/Projection Downtown Miami Area by District AREA BRICKELL CBD PARK WEST MEDIA & ENT. WYNWD/EDGWTR TOTAL DOWNTOWN AREA
2000
2010
2014
Census 7,502 391 766 343 8,297 17,299
Estimate 15,700 3,900 2,000 1,500 11,600 34,700
Projection 18,400 5,300 2,600 1,800 12,200 40,300
Source: U.S. Cens us ; ESRI; Focus Rea l Es ta te Advi s ors , LLC.
EXHIBIT I.4 HOUSEHOLDS - TREND/PROJECTION BY DISTRICT
DOWNTOWN STUDY AREA HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION Household size and composition is both reflective of and driven by the composition of the residential product inventory (existing and new) in the downtown study area. As graphically illustrated in Exhibit I.5, studio and 1-bedroom units account for nearly half of all units in buildings completed since 2000 and committed pipeline projects. Two-bedroom units represent over 40% of total units and units with three or more bedrooms represent less than 10% of the aggregate inventory.
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Unit Mix by Type ‐ Residential New Construction Completed 2000 ‐ 2009, Downtown Miami Study Area
2‐Bedroom, 41.8%
1‐Bedroom, 38.2%
Source: Goodkin‐Focus Strategic Alliance
3‐Bedroom, 6.5% 4+ Bedrooms, 2.9% Studio, 10.5%
EXHIBIT I.5 UNIT MIX BY TYPE – RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY CHART
Change in household composition in the downtown area based on the mix, type, size and pricing of housing reflects a decline in traditional family households as a percent of total households and corresponding increase in non-family households. The change in household mix in the Downtown Miami Area is generally consistent with demographic shifts in other U.S. Metro markets, including increasing percentages of households comprised of unmarried singles, young married couples, empty-nesters and single-parent households. One significant difference between Miami and other U.S. cities is the extent of second home ownership dominated by foreign nationals. Second home owners, who are part-time residents, are predominantly high net worth households generating another dimension of spending and economic impact on the local restaurant, retail and entertainment businesses.
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DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE AND SELECTED COMPARISONS A demographic profile of downtown area residents based on 2009 estimates and 2014 projections by ESRI is presented below. Profiles include income, age and employment status in exhibits I.6, I.7 and I.8. Selected comparisons to the City of Miami and Miami-Dade County profiles as of the 2000 Census and in the 2009 estimates and 2014 projections are presented in Exhibit I.6 below. Per Capita and median household incomes in the downtown area are above overall levels for the City. Median household income in the downtown area is substantially above the citywide level, and is expected to remain about 10% below the countywide average through 2014. However, it should be noted that the downtown Miami area has higher per capita income than that of the county, due to smaller average household size.
Personal Income Trend/Projections Downtown Area, City of Miami & Miami‐Dade Co. 2000
2009
2014
Census
Estimate
Projected
$23,617 $15,132 $18,497
$32,453 $18,803 $22,696
$34,489 $20,073 $23,855
$29,396 $23,769 $36,219
$40,180 $30,302 $47,132
$44,567 $32,526 $49,707
Per Capita Income Downtown Area City of Miami Miami‐Dade County
Median Household Income Downtown Area City of Miami Miami‐Dade County
Source: U.S. Cens us ; ESRI; Focus Rea l Es ta te Advi s ors , LLC.
EXHIBIT I.6 PERSONAL INCOME TREND/PROJECTION COMPARISON
Population Age Profile The age composition of population in the downtown area is expected to remain relatively static as illustrated below. Population aged 45 and up is expected to be the most significant segment over the next five years, as this includes mature working aged population at peak income and
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career levels. Children under age 18 will remain relatively flat as a percentage of total population. The projected decline shown for the 25 to 34-year old segment of the population over the next five years may be overstated based on the current trend in migration to the downtown Miami area of persons in this age group lured by the inventory of condominium units available for rental at bargain rates.
Population Age Profile Downtown Miami Area Trend/Projection 1990 Census Total Population by Age Age 0 to 9 Age 10 to 17 Age 18 to 24 Age 25 to 34 Age 35 to 44 Age 45 to 59 Age 60 to 74 Age 75 and over
%
36,140 100.0% 5,273 14.6% 3,108 8.6% 3,727 10.3% 7,462 20.6% 5,719 15.8% 5,430 15.0% 3,743 10.4% 1,678 4.6%
2000 Census
%
39,176 100.0% 4,247 10.8% 3,010 7.7% 4,011 10.2% 8,000 20.4% 7,215 18.4% 7,043 18.0% 3,832 9.8% 1,818 4.6%
2009 Estimate
%
68,900 100.0% 7,200 10.5% 5,100 7.5% 5,300 7.7% 11,700 16.9% 12,500 18.1% 15,200 22.1% 7,900 11.4% 4,000 5.8%
2014 Projection
%
85,000 100.0% 8,700 10.2% 6,400 7.6% 6,200 7.3% 12,200 14.4% 14,700 17.3% 20,000 23.6% 11,500 13.5% 5,300 6.2%
Source: U.S. Cens us ; Cl a ri ta s ; ESRI; Focus Rea l Es ta te Advi s ors , LLC.
EXHIBIT I.7 POPULATION AGE PROFILE, TREND/PROJECTION, 1990 - 2014
Employment Status & Profile The current employment status of the civilian population in the downtown area in comparison to the City of Miami and Miami-Dade County is shown below. It should be noted that these employment estimates reflect resident employment status, not specific payroll or business location data from the Downtown area. As shown, current estimated unemployment among downtown area residents is above the unemployment level for the County, but below the estimated unemployment level in the City overall. Comparison of estimated employment by industry sector shows the significantly higher percentages of downtown residents employed in the professional and technical services, finance/insurance, information, and real estate sectors than in both the City and County. These sectors represent generally higher pay levels than most other sectors and are consistent with downtown area business infrastructure.
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Employment Profile ‐ Civilian Population Miami‐Dade Co., City of Miami and Downtown Area 2009 Population by Industry and Occupation 2009 Estimated Civilian Population 16+ in Labor Force by Employment Status Employed Unemployed Unemployment Rate 2009 Estimated Employed Civilian Population Age 16+ by Industry Agriculture/Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Utilities Information Finance/Insurance Real Estate/Rental/Leasing Prof/Scientific/Tech Services Mgmt of Companies/Enterprises Admin/Support/Waste Mgmt Srvcs Educational Services Health Care/Social Assistance Arts/Entertainment/Recreation Accommodation/Food Services Other Services (excl Public Admin) Public Administration
Miami-Dade
City of Miami
#
#
%
1,128,274 1,010,070 118,204
Downtown Study Area #
%
158,740 90% 10%
10.50%
137,877 20,863
30,485 87% 13%
13.10%
1,010,070
%
26,765 3,719
88% 12%
12.20%
137,876
26,765
6,826 76,846 46,866 49,667 117,905 69,786 22,878 51,671 35,810
0.7% 7.6% 4.6% 4.9% 11.7% 6.9% 2.3% 5.1% 3.5%
643 15,366 6,702 6,187 14,318 7,848 2,789 5,490 4,807
0.5% 11.1% 4.9% 4.5% 10.4% 5.7% 2.0% 4.0% 3.5%
81 2,006 1,132 1,183 2,211 1,386 866 1,668 1,165
0.3% 7.5% 4.2% 4.4% 8.3% 5.2% 3.2% 6.2% 4.4%
63,532 582 54,379 80,644 127,468 21,305 79,330 60,793 43,782
6.3% 0.1% 5.4% 8.0% 12.6% 2.1% 7.9% 6.0% 4.3%
7,962 24 8,451 8,172 15,505 3,058 14,799 10,948 4,807
5.8% 0.0% 6.1% 5.9% 11.2% 2.2% 10.7% 7.9% 3.5%
3,278 15 1,539 1,598 2,903 769 2,336 1,576 1,054
12.2% 0.1% 5.7% 6.0% 10.8% 2.9% 8.7% 5.9% 3.9%
Source: U.S. Cens us ; ESRI; Focus Rea l Es ta te Advi s ors , LLC.
EXHIBIT I.8 EMPLOYMENT STATUS AND PROFILE – CIVILIAN POPULATION
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CONDITIONS FOR REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS STUDIES The following Standard Conditions apply to real estate consulting engagements performed by Goodkin/Focus Strategic Alliance (Goodkin/Focus). Reports may contain estimates of future sales/rental activity (e.g., absorption rates, sales values/rents, etc.) or other events that represent the consultant's view of reasonable expectations at a particular point in time, but such activities or events are not offered as predictions or as assurances that absorption levels will be achieved, that events will occur, or that indicated prices/rents will be offered or accepted. Actual results achieved during the period covered by our analyses will vary from those described in our report, and the variations may be material. Information furnished by others is presumed to be reliable, and unless specified in the report to the contrary, has not been verified; no responsibility, whether legal or otherwise, is assumed for its accuracy, and it cannot be guaranteed as being certain. No single item of information will be completely relied upon to the exclusion of other information. Goodkin/Focus does not, as part of its engagement, perform an audit, review, examination or appraisal (as defined by the AICPA) of any historical or prospective financial information used, and therefore does not express any opinion with regard to same. The report and conclusions included therein are intended for the information of the person or persons to whom they are addressed, solely for the purposes stated therein, and should not be relied upon for any other purpose. In the event that the report is distributed to third parties, Goodkin/Focus shall be held harmless relative to their use or reliance on the report for any purpose. Neither our report, nor its contents, nor any reference to the consultants of Goodkin/Focus, may be included or quoted in any offering circular or registration statement, prospectus, sales brochure, appraisal, loan or other agreement or document without our prior written permission. Consulting engagements are accepted with the understanding that there is no obligation to provide services after completion of the original assignment or beyond any updates or other supplemental services specifically defined in this agreement. If the need for subsequent services related to a consulting engagement (e.g., testimony, updates, conferences, or other services) is contemplated, special arrangements acceptable to Goodkin/Focus must be made in advance. Conclusions presented in our report assume market conditions as observed as of the current date of our market research (stated in the letter of transmittal.) Goodkin/Focus assumes no liability should market conditions materially change because of unusual or unforeseen circumstances.
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