Power Utility Fund Projections AWS
October 26, 2017 Laura Wills, City Comptroller
Power Utility Fund Mill Street Hydroelectric Facility In service - October 2014 North Division Street Hydroelectric Facility To be placed in service - December 2017 Landfill Gas to Electric Facility In service - 2011 Mothballed June 30, 2016 due to five years of operating losses
Projection Assumptions Electric production will be approximately the same year over year All preventative maintenance will be performed when recommended by the manufacturer Salaries / benefits increase by contractual raises until the contract expires then at 2% per year Health and dental insurance increase at 5% per year Operating expenses increase at 2% per year Debt: Long-term debt is included at actual amounts Short-term debt is estimated based on the most current issuances (2%-3%) plus 1% with a 20 year term Capital: No significant capital costs have been included No revenue loss from maintenance downtime has been included
Mill Street Hydro Projection 0% Revenue Growth Model 2018-19 Electric Sales and Renewable Energy Credits
$
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
234,695 $
234,695 $
234,695 $
234,695 $
234,695
Wages and benefits
(32,527)
(33,324)
(34,145)
(34,990)
(35,861)
Operating expenses
(21,996)
(22,313)
(22,637)
(22,967)
(44,553)
(320,304)
(315,896)
(316,892)
(317,776)
(337,801)
(140,132) $
(136,838) $
(138,979) $
(141,038) $
(183,520)
Debt Service Projected Loss
$
Mill Street Hydro Projection 2% Revenue Growth Model 2018-19 Electric Sales and Renewable Energy Credits
$
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
238,378 $
242,135 $
245,967 $
249,875 $
253,862
Wages and benefits
(32,527)
(33,324)
(34,145)
(34,990)
(35,861)
Operating expenses
(21,996)
(22,313)
(22,637)
(22,967)
(44,553)
(320,304)
(315,896)
(316,892)
(317,776)
(337,801)
(136,449) $
(129,398) $
(127,707) $
(125,858) $
(164,353)
Debt Service Projected Loss
$
Mill Street Hydro Projection Long-term Outlook Estimates
Revenue Growth 0% 10 Years
$
2%
(1,707,461) $
(1,492,230)
20 Years
(2,078,280)
(1,197,384)
30 Years
(767,968)
1,327,671
40 Years
349,157
4,328,862
50 Years
1,003,620
6,494,756
Turn Around Year
2034
2034
North Division Street Hydro Projection 0% Revenue Growth Model 2018-19 Electric Sales and Renewable Energy Credits
$
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
518,584 $
518,584 $
518,584 $
518,584 $
518,584
Wages and benefits
(32,527)
(33,324)
(34,145)
(34,990)
(35,861)
Operating expenses
(58,252)
(58,759)
(59,302)
(76,877)
(55,064)
(230,814)
(251,863)
(257,158)
(259,878)
(261,471)
Debt Service Projected Surplus
$
196,991 $
174,638 $
167,979 $
146,839 $
166,188
North Division Street Hydro Projection 2% Revenue Growth Model 2018-19 Electric Sales and Renewable Energy Credits
$
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
526,438 $
534,449 $
542,620 $
550,955 $
559,456
Wages and benefits
(32,527)
(33,324)
(34,145)
(34,990)
(35,861)
Operating expenses
(58,252)
(58,759)
(59,302)
(76,877)
(55,064)
(230,814)
(251,863)
(257,158)
(259,878)
(261,471)
Debt Service Projected Surplus
$
204,845 $
190,503 $
192,015 $
179,210 $
207,060
North Division Street Hydro Projection Long-term Outlook Estimates
Revenue Growth 0% 10 Years
1,540,511 $
2,038,251
20 Years
2,508,620
4,719,267
30 Years
6,265,631
11,699,971
40 Years
9,704,716
20,204,392
50 Years
12,656,224
29,620,896
Turn Around Year
$
2%
2018
2018
Landfill Gas to Electric Facility Projection 2018-19 Rental Income
$
Operating expenses Debt Service Projected Loss
$
5,000 $
2019-20 5,000 $
2020-21 5,000 $
2021-22
2022-23
5,000 $
5,000
(3,978)
(4,058)
(4,139)
(4,221)
(4,306)
(300,529)
(304,599)
(308,119)
(311,252)
(313,973)
(299,507) $
(303,657) $
(307,258) $
(310,474) $
(313,279)
All debt will be paid off in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2038 Total expected cost: 10 years: $3,155,664 20 years: $6,208,012
Combined Projections Power Utility Fund / All Projects 2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
0% Revenue Growth Mill Street Net Loss
$
North Division Street Net Income LFGE Net Loss General Fund Support Required
$
(140,132) $ (136,838) $ (138,979) $ (141,037) $ (183,520) 196,991
174,638
167,979
146,839
166,189
(299,507)
(303,657)
(307,258)
(310,474)
(313,279)
(242,648) $ (265,857) $ (278,258) $ (304,672) $ (330,610) 2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2% Revenue Growth Mill Street Net Loss
$
North Division Street Net Income LFGE Net Loss General Fund Support Required
$
(136,449) $ (129,398) $ (127,706) $ (125,857) $ (164,352) 204,845
190,503
192,015
179,210
207,061
(299,507)
(303,657)
(307,258)
(310,474)
(313,279)
(231,111) $ (242,552) $ (242,949) $ (257,119) $ (270,570)
Long-term Outlook Cumulative Gains (Losses) Revenue Growth 0% 10 Years
2%
$ (2,539,354) $ (1,965,814)
20 Years
(5,226,004)
(2,458,323)
30 Years
(779,876)
6,201,421
40 Years
3,869,846
17,526,489
50 Years
7,756,293
30,212,101
Turn Around Year
2039
2034
Power Utility Fund Mill Street Hydroelectric Facility In service - October 2014 North Division Street Hydroelectric Facility To be placed in service - December 2017 Landfill Gas to Electric Facility In service - 2011 Mothballed June 30, 2016 due to five years of operating losses
Projection Assumptions Electric production will be approximately the same year over year All preventative maintenance will be performed when recommended by the manufacturer Salaries / benefits increase by contractual raises until the contract expires then at 2% per year Health and dental insurance increase at 5% per year Operating expenses increase at 2% per year Debt: Long-term debt is included at actual amounts Short-term debt is estimated based on the most current issuances (2%-3%) plus 1% with a 20 year term Capital: No significant capital costs have been included No revenue loss from maintenance downtime has been included
Mill Street Hydro Projection 0% Revenue Growth Model 2018-19 Electric Sales and Renewable Energy Credits
$
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
234,695 $
234,695 $
234,695 $
234,695 $
234,695
Wages and benefits
(32,527)
(33,324)
(34,145)
(34,990)
(35,861)
Operating expenses
(21,996)
(22,313)
(22,637)
(22,967)
(44,553)
(320,304)
(315,896)
(316,892)
(317,776)
(337,801)
(140,132) $
(136,838) $
(138,979) $
(141,038) $
(183,520)
Debt Service Projected Loss
$
Mill Street Hydro Projection 2% Revenue Growth Model 2018-19 Electric Sales and Renewable Energy Credits
$
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
238,378 $
242,135 $
245,967 $
249,875 $
253,862
Wages and benefits
(32,527)
(33,324)
(34,145)
(34,990)
(35,861)
Operating expenses
(21,996)
(22,313)
(22,637)
(22,967)
(44,553)
(320,304)
(315,896)
(316,892)
(317,776)
(337,801)
(136,449) $
(129,398) $
(127,707) $
(125,858) $
(164,353)
Debt Service Projected Loss
$
Mill Street Hydro Projection Long-term Outlook Estimates
Revenue Growth 0% 10 Years
$
2%
(1,707,461) $
(1,492,230)
20 Years
(2,078,280)
(1,197,384)
30 Years
(767,968)
1,327,671
40 Years
349,157
4,328,862
50 Years
1,003,620
6,494,756
Turn Around Year
2034
2034
North Division Street Hydro Projection 0% Revenue Growth Model 2018-19 Electric Sales and Renewable Energy Credits
$
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
518,584 $
518,584 $
518,584 $
518,584 $
518,584
Wages and benefits
(32,527)
(33,324)
(34,145)
(34,990)
(35,861)
Operating expenses
(58,252)
(58,759)
(59,302)
(76,877)
(55,064)
(230,814)
(251,863)
(257,158)
(259,878)
(261,471)
Debt Service Projected Surplus
$
196,991 $
174,638 $
167,979 $
146,839 $
166,188
North Division Street Hydro Projection 2% Revenue Growth Model 2018-19 Electric Sales and Renewable Energy Credits
$
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
526,438 $
534,449 $
542,620 $
550,955 $
559,456
Wages and benefits
(32,527)
(33,324)
(34,145)
(34,990)
(35,861)
Operating expenses
(58,252)
(58,759)
(59,302)
(76,877)
(55,064)
(230,814)
(251,863)
(257,158)
(259,878)
(261,471)
Debt Service Projected Surplus
$
204,845 $
190,503 $
192,015 $
179,210 $
207,060
North Division Street Hydro Projection Long-term Outlook Estimates
Revenue Growth 0% 10 Years
1,540,511 $
2,038,251
20 Years
2,508,620
4,719,267
30 Years
6,265,631
11,699,971
40 Years
9,704,716
20,204,392
50 Years
12,656,224
29,620,896
Turn Around Year
$
2%
2018
2018
Landfill Gas to Electric Facility Projection 2018-19 Rental Income
$
Operating expenses Debt Service Projected Loss
$
5,000 $
2019-20 5,000 $
2020-21 5,000 $
2021-22
2022-23
5,000 $
5,000
(3,978)
(4,058)
(4,139)
(4,221)
(4,306)
(300,529)
(304,599)
(308,119)
(311,252)
(313,973)
(299,507) $
(303,657) $
(307,258) $
(310,474) $
(313,279)
All debt will be paid off in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2038 Total expected cost: 10 years: $3,155,664 20 years: $6,208,012
Combined Projections Power Utility Fund / All Projects 2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
0% Revenue Growth Mill Street Net Loss
$
North Division Street Net Income LFGE Net Loss General Fund Support Required
$
(140,132) $ (136,838) $ (138,979) $ (141,037) $ (183,520) 196,991
174,638
167,979
146,839
166,189
(299,507)
(303,657)
(307,258)
(310,474)
(313,279)
(242,648) $ (265,857) $ (278,258) $ (304,672) $ (330,610) 2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2% Revenue Growth Mill Street Net Loss
$
North Division Street Net Income LFGE Net Loss General Fund Support Required
$
(136,449) $ (129,398) $ (127,706) $ (125,857) $ (164,352) 204,845
190,503
192,015
179,210
207,061
(299,507)
(303,657)
(307,258)
(310,474)
(313,279)
(231,111) $ (242,552) $ (242,949) $ (257,119) $ (270,570)
Long-term Outlook Cumulative Gains (Losses) Revenue Growth 0% 10 Years
2%
$ (2,539,354) $ (1,965,814)
20 Years
(5,226,004)
(2,458,323)
30 Years
(779,876)
6,201,421
40 Years
3,869,846
17,526,489
50 Years
7,756,293
30,212,101
Turn Around Year
2039
2034
