Presented at FUELING AMERICAN GROWTH HOW ENERGY ...
Presented at FUELING AMERICAN GROWTH HOW ENERGY INDEPENDENCE WILL POWER THE FUTURE Hudson Institute Washington DC May 7, 2015. Michael D. Jackson Research Director
Agenda • Background • Alternative Fuel Success Factors • Summary
Fuel Freedom Foundation • Non-partisan initiative dedicated to reducing U.S. dependence on petroleum • Initiate changes necessary for gasoline, diesel, natural gas, ethanol, methanol, and electricity to compete on equal footing – Overcome the regulatory, commercial, and practical barriers that impede innovation in fuel production, consumption , and true market competition
Decoupling of Natural Gas and Oil Prices
Ref: EIA AEO 2015 Reference Energy Prices
U.S. Natural Gas Supply Opens Possible Use in Transportation Battery Electric Vehicles Electricity Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Methanol
Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles Ethanol
Natural Gas
Synthetic Gasoline
Liquified NG Compressed NG
Hydrogen
Fuel Cell Vehicles
Many Past Examples of Successful Alternative Fuel Applications
Early Light and Heavy Duty Methanol Vehicles
Medium Duty CNG and Heavy Duty LNG Trucks
Existing Fleet of FFVs and Potentially Larger Population with Vehicle Conversions
Agenda • Background • Alternative Fuel Success Factors • Summary
What’s Needed for Alternative Fuel Success Consumer Value Proposition Acceptable Vehicle Attributes Adequate Fueling Infrastructure Acceptable Business Case for Producers and Retailers • Positive Societal and Environmental Impacts • • • •
Consumer Value Proposition Past Experiences with Alternative Fuels Gasoline and Diesel Goal of Alternative Fuels
Life Cycle Cost ($/mile)
Time
• •
•
Lowest costs per mile Vehicle costs minimized – OEM FFV no to small incremental costs – Low conversion costs Competitively priced fuel at the pump – Priced based on energy mileage (energy content and vehicle efficiency) – Price also needs to account for higher conversion costs, lack of infrastructure, added fueling or additional time to fuel
Vehicle Attributes • Economics only one factor that drives purchasing decision • Attributes that need to similar – – – –
Performance ~power and torque (not fuel economy) Vehicle range ~ 350 to 400 miles consistent with once a week fueling Storage and interior space Safety
• Sellable attributes – Green image – HOV lane access in some states – Lower life cycle costs
Fueling Infrastructure • Ease and comfort of use • Density of Stations • Pricing
Reasonable Business Case Throughout Supply Chain • • • •
Production Distribution Blending Retailing
Positive Environmental Impacts • Equal or better tailpipe emissions – NMHC, CO, NOx, PM and toxics
• Equal or better fuel cycle emissions – Greenhouse gas emissions – Criteria emissions
• Equal or better multi-media Impacts
GHG Impacts of Fuel and Vehicle Technologies
GHG Takeaways • Higher octane fuels enable higher IC engine efficiency – Ethanol and methanol blends – Refining HC processing • High efficiency ICE coupled with electrification provides a cost effective pathway to achieving GHG reductions – DI, turbocharged, downsized, down speed, high compression • Need to minimize future fuel and vehicle costs – High octane gasoline an option but possibly more expensive if hydrocarbon processing used – Ethanol or methanol may be the best fueling options either in lower level blends or in higher level blends – Need also to minimize battery storage
Agenda • Background • Alternative Fuel Success Factors • Summary
Summary • Natural gas supply in U.S. opens opportunity to introduce less expensive natural gas derived fuels like ethanol and methanol • Current U.S. fleet of FFVs coupled with conversions creates demand to justify production • Possible tailpipe emission benefits with existing fleet • Alcohol fuels will enable more efficient newer vehicles— lowering GHG impact—at potentially lower costs than alternatives • Much work needed to overcome barriers to fuels competition
Summary Thank you for your attention Contact information Michael D. Jackson [email protected] www.fuelfreedom.org 1 408 230 2014 PUMP the Movie: Now available for purchase and download
Agenda • Background • Alternative Fuel Success Factors • Summary
Fuel Freedom Foundation • Non-partisan initiative dedicated to reducing U.S. dependence on petroleum • Initiate changes necessary for gasoline, diesel, natural gas, ethanol, methanol, and electricity to compete on equal footing – Overcome the regulatory, commercial, and practical barriers that impede innovation in fuel production, consumption , and true market competition
Decoupling of Natural Gas and Oil Prices
Ref: EIA AEO 2015 Reference Energy Prices
U.S. Natural Gas Supply Opens Possible Use in Transportation Battery Electric Vehicles Electricity Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Methanol
Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles Ethanol
Natural Gas
Synthetic Gasoline
Liquified NG Compressed NG
Hydrogen
Fuel Cell Vehicles
Many Past Examples of Successful Alternative Fuel Applications
Early Light and Heavy Duty Methanol Vehicles
Medium Duty CNG and Heavy Duty LNG Trucks
Existing Fleet of FFVs and Potentially Larger Population with Vehicle Conversions
Agenda • Background • Alternative Fuel Success Factors • Summary
What’s Needed for Alternative Fuel Success Consumer Value Proposition Acceptable Vehicle Attributes Adequate Fueling Infrastructure Acceptable Business Case for Producers and Retailers • Positive Societal and Environmental Impacts • • • •
Consumer Value Proposition Past Experiences with Alternative Fuels Gasoline and Diesel Goal of Alternative Fuels
Life Cycle Cost ($/mile)
Time
• •
•
Lowest costs per mile Vehicle costs minimized – OEM FFV no to small incremental costs – Low conversion costs Competitively priced fuel at the pump – Priced based on energy mileage (energy content and vehicle efficiency) – Price also needs to account for higher conversion costs, lack of infrastructure, added fueling or additional time to fuel
Vehicle Attributes • Economics only one factor that drives purchasing decision • Attributes that need to similar – – – –
Performance ~power and torque (not fuel economy) Vehicle range ~ 350 to 400 miles consistent with once a week fueling Storage and interior space Safety
• Sellable attributes – Green image – HOV lane access in some states – Lower life cycle costs
Fueling Infrastructure • Ease and comfort of use • Density of Stations • Pricing
Reasonable Business Case Throughout Supply Chain • • • •
Production Distribution Blending Retailing
Positive Environmental Impacts • Equal or better tailpipe emissions – NMHC, CO, NOx, PM and toxics
• Equal or better fuel cycle emissions – Greenhouse gas emissions – Criteria emissions
• Equal or better multi-media Impacts
GHG Impacts of Fuel and Vehicle Technologies
GHG Takeaways • Higher octane fuels enable higher IC engine efficiency – Ethanol and methanol blends – Refining HC processing • High efficiency ICE coupled with electrification provides a cost effective pathway to achieving GHG reductions – DI, turbocharged, downsized, down speed, high compression • Need to minimize future fuel and vehicle costs – High octane gasoline an option but possibly more expensive if hydrocarbon processing used – Ethanol or methanol may be the best fueling options either in lower level blends or in higher level blends – Need also to minimize battery storage
Agenda • Background • Alternative Fuel Success Factors • Summary
Summary • Natural gas supply in U.S. opens opportunity to introduce less expensive natural gas derived fuels like ethanol and methanol • Current U.S. fleet of FFVs coupled with conversions creates demand to justify production • Possible tailpipe emission benefits with existing fleet • Alcohol fuels will enable more efficient newer vehicles— lowering GHG impact—at potentially lower costs than alternatives • Much work needed to overcome barriers to fuels competition
Summary Thank you for your attention Contact information Michael D. Jackson [email protected] www.fuelfreedom.org 1 408 230 2014 PUMP the Movie: Now available for purchase and download
